AeroWesty
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Tony Blair's Prospects As Mideast Envoy

Wed Jun 27, 2007 7:39 am

Quoting http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article1990638.ece:

The main international players in the Middle East gave a mixed reponse today to the prospects of Tony Blair becoming the region’s peace envoy.

Israeli officials said that Mr Blair would be welcome in the post, vacated more than a year ago by James Wolfensohn, the former World Bank head who quit in frustration at a lack of progress.

Palestinian officials said any serious attempt to inject new life into the stalled peace process would be welcome, but worried about Mr Blair’s close ties to Washington and Israel.

While reading up on the expected appointment of Tony Blair as Mideast Envoy, there are others who seem just as capable and better liked in the region--Jacques Chirac and Bill Clinton mentioned in the article as two examples.

As Blair has inspired anger in the Arab world, according to the article, how would you rate his chances for success? What would you like to see him address first? As a side question, will Blair have to resign from the House of Commons to take this role?
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oly720man
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RE: Tony Blair's Prospects As Mideast Envoy

Wed Jun 27, 2007 7:49 am

Quoting AeroWesty (Thread starter):
As a side question, will Blair have to resign from the House of Commons to take this role?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6242788.stm

The Labour Party has been put on standby that Tony Blair may announce he is stepping down as the Member of Parliament for Sedgefield.

Officials said Mr Blair is expected to attend a meeting of his local party hours after quitting as prime minister.

He is thought likely to quit if he is confirmed as a Middle East envoy on Wednesday by the Mid-East quartet of the US, Russia, the UN and the EU.


As for Blair's chances of success.... if he can get both sides in Northern Ireland to sit next to each other and share jokes, then there's always room for optimism, but NI was basically a 2 sided argument whereas there are a lot more players and agendas in the middle east.
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AeroWesty
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RE: Tony Blair's Prospects As Mideast Envoy

Wed Jun 27, 2007 7:56 am

Quoting Oly720man (Reply 1):
The Labour Party has been put on standby that Tony Blair may announce he is stepping down as the Member of Parliament for Sedgefield.

Aha, thanks. I've been looking for that and missed it.
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connies4ever
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RE: Tony Blair's Prospects As Mideast Envoy

Wed Jun 27, 2007 8:07 am

Quoting AeroWesty (Thread starter):
As Blair has inspired anger in the Arab world, according to the article, how would you rate his chances for success? What would you like to see him address first? As a side question, will Blair have to resign from the House of Commons to take this role?

Chances for Bush's Poodle to have success in the ME are low -- at least he's seen as Dubya's poodle.
I'm sure he doesn't think of himself that way. But I don't think he has a lot of credibility with most of the
ME players. Clinton would be a better choice but that could harm HRC's campaign chances.

Quoting Oly720man (Reply 1):
As for Blair's chances of success.... if he can get both sides in Northern Ireland to sit next to each other and share jokes, then there's always room for optimism, but NI was basically a 2 sided argument whereas there are a lot more players and agendas in the middle east.

 checkmark  Agreed.
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AeroWesty
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RE: Tony Blair's Prospects As Mideast Envoy

Wed Jun 27, 2007 8:13 am

Quoting Connies4ever (Reply 3):
Clinton would be a better choice but that could harm HRC's campaign chances.

I was thinking about that aspect of it. It would take him away from close proximity as an advisor and to make campaign appearances with her or for her, but if he did well in the ME, it could have positive knock-on effects for having the Clinton name associated with progress where the current administration has been lackluster.
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andessmf
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RE: Tony Blair's Prospects As Mideast Envoy

Wed Jun 27, 2007 8:26 am

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 4):
but if he did well in the ME

Let's remember that the last Palestinian intifada began in September 2000, when Clinton was still president. So while Clinton might engender more trust in the ME now, it will not mean that he would be able to get something accomplished now, when he was not allowed by the warring parties from doing so before.

If he did well, HRC would benefit. And if Clinton were a true statesman, before being a politician, he would take on this job now rather than assisting HRC future campaign.
 
AeroWesty
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RE: Tony Blair's Prospects As Mideast Envoy

Wed Jun 27, 2007 8:34 am

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 5):
Let's remember that the last Palestinian intifada began in September 2000, when Clinton was still president.

One difference between then and now being that Arafat is out of the way. According to the article in the Times, the Palestinians are actually behind the appointment of Clinton to the role of envoy:

Some background on the dynamics of the 2000 intifada:

http://www.palestinefacts.org/pf_1991to_now_alaqsa_start.php
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andessmf
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RE: Tony Blair's Prospects As Mideast Envoy

Wed Jun 27, 2007 8:37 am

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 6):
One difference between then and now being that Arafat is out of the way. According to the article in the Times, the Palestinians are actually behind the appointment of Clinton to the role of envoy:

Yeah, that's right! I wonder how it would go now with him dead. Could GWB still appoint Clinton to be an envoy not to the ME, but just to the Israel/Palestine issue?
 
AeroWesty
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RE: Tony Blair's Prospects As Mideast Envoy

Wed Jun 27, 2007 8:53 am

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 7):
Could GWB still appoint Clinton to be an envoy not to the ME, but just to the Israel/Palestine issue?

I don't see why not.
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fumanchewd
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RE: Tony Blair's Prospects As Mideast Envoy

Wed Jun 27, 2007 9:24 am

I think that Clinton would be perfect for the role- but lets be honest, Bush would never allow a Democrat the chance to attain peace and glory in a theater where his success has been lacking. In all fairness, I don't believe that the Democrats would allow a Republican the same chance either.

Blair has been a staunch ally of Bush's administration, is not American, and is seen as more moderate than the Bush administration. (Please don't jump me for that  Wink I don't believe that Blair will accomplish anything but I hope that he does.
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