windshear
Posts: 2261
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2000 4:45 pm

How Is The Situation In Lebanon?

Mon Jul 09, 2007 3:25 am

I was reading the following article, and I would like to know what to think.

Warning this is Israeli media!!

Quote:
"In the past few days, Arab and Iranian media reports have pointed to the possibility that Lebanon's current political crisis may become a violent conflict after July 15, 2007," the MEMRI dispatch said...

"On July 5, 2007, the Iranian news agency IRNA reported that Syrian authorities had instructed all Syrian citizens residing in Lebanon to return to their country by July 15, 2007. The next day, the Israeli Arab daily Al-Sinara similarly reported, on the authority of a Lebanese source close to Damascus, that Syria was planning to remove its citizens from Lebanon. Also on July 5, the Lebanese daily Al-Liwa reported rumors that Syrian workers were leaving Lebanon at the request of the Syrian authorities. In addition, the Syrian government daily Al-Thawra reported that Syrian universities would accept Syrian students who were leaving Lebanon due to the instability there," MEMRI said in its report.

Within Lebanon itself, the Hizbullah-led opposition threatened to establish a "second government" through "historical steps" in mid July, according to senior Hizbullah officials quoted in the Lebanese media, MEMRI added...


What is going on? Is Hezbollah really attempting a coup? Ala Hamas?

Boaz.
"If you believe breaking is possible, believe in fixing also"-Rebbe Nachman
 
ME AVN FAN
Posts: 12970
Joined: Fri May 31, 2002 12:05 am

RE: How Is The Situation In Lebanon?

Mon Jul 09, 2007 7:20 pm

Quoting Windshear (Thread starter):
Hezbollah really attempting a coup? Ala Hamas?

Hizbullah does not have either a parliamentary majority nor the military power to take over the whole country or do a coup. If they however find a sufficient number of allies, they might form a majority-coalition, bypassing the present government, and Syria possibly establishing a kind of border-blockade at the same time. Another point is that I find it difficult to imagine Hizbullah keeping things really discreet and secret. Very difficult to do forecasts.
 
windshear
Posts: 2261
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2000 4:45 pm

RE: How Is The Situation In Lebanon?

Mon Jul 09, 2007 11:29 pm

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 1):
f they however find a sufficient number of allies, they might form a majority-coalition, bypassing the present government, and Syria possibly establishing a kind of border-blockade at the same time.

So it is indeed possible?

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 1):
Another point is that I find it difficult to imagine Hizbullah keeping things really discreet and secret. Very difficult to do forecasts.

They are not entirely discrete:

Quoting Windshear (Thread starter):
Within Lebanon itself, the Hizbullah-led opposition threatened to establish a "second government" through "historical steps" in mid July, according to senior Hizbullah officials quoted in the Lebanese media, MEMRI added...

This was what came from Hezbollah... Not that secretive.

Still dunno what to think though.

Boaz.
"If you believe breaking is possible, believe in fixing also"-Rebbe Nachman
 
ME AVN FAN
Posts: 12970
Joined: Fri May 31, 2002 12:05 am

RE: How Is The Situation In Lebanon?

Tue Jul 10, 2007 2:56 am

Quoting Windshear (Reply 2):
f they however find a sufficient number of allies, they might form a majority-coalition, bypassing the present government, and Syria possibly establishing a kind of border-blockade at the same time.

So it is indeed possible?

Definitely NOT in the way you mentioned. They canNOT get the power, but they can participate in a new coalition with a majority in parliament and thereby terminate the present government. You compared Hizbullah with Hamas, which has its justification, BUT Hizbullah clearly is ready to drop positions and to go for compromises and for partnerships with quite different folks. Quite interesting.
-
In case, your question "indeed possible" contains the idea of a "Hizbullah government" the answer would be a definite NO, but if it means a coalition government with Hizbullah included then why not. They participated in earlier governments, so that it is not completely new.
-

Quoting Windshear (Reply 2):
Still dunno what to think though.

Neither do I, but I think it simply is powerplays as everywhere
 
cedarjet
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Joined: Mon May 24, 1999 1:12 am

RE: How Is The Situation In Lebanon?

Tue Jul 10, 2007 7:41 pm

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 3):
You compared Hizbullah with Hamas, which has its justification, BUT Hizbullah clearly is ready to drop positions and to go for compromises and for partnerships with quite different folks. Quite interesting.

I don't know how radical Hamas are - obviously Bush and Olmert don't like them because their stated aim is to put their own people first, not Israelis. But Palestinians are a secular and rational bunch of people, and Hamas won the most democratic election in the history of the Arab world. If they are nihilistic nutjobs, would they really enjoy the kind of popular support they have? Remember they are the ones who got Alan Johnston released.
fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
 
ME AVN FAN
Posts: 12970
Joined: Fri May 31, 2002 12:05 am

RE: How Is The Situation In Lebanon?

Tue Jul 10, 2007 8:12 pm

Quoting Cedarjet (Reply 4):
Hamas won the most democratic election i

they won thanks to a protest vote. It is fairly obvious that many who voted for Hamas did NOT expect Hamas to win a majority.

Quoting Cedarjet (Reply 4):
the kind of popular support they have

there is not so much of "popular support" visible, and I hope that there will be new parliamentary elections in Palestine fairly soon, as they will rob Hamas of its majority, and hopefully so by NOT giving elFatah a majority either, so that a new coalition of whomever needs to be established
 
MD11Engineer
Posts: 13916
Joined: Sun Oct 26, 2003 5:25 am

RE: How Is The Situation In Lebanon?

Tue Jul 10, 2007 9:39 pm

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 5):
Quoting Cedarjet (Reply 4):
Hamas won the most democratic election i

they won thanks to a protest vote. It is fairly obvious that many who voted for Hamas did NOT expect Hamas to win a majority.

Acc. to what I have heard, there were plans to make the beach areas of Gaza a tourist place, with hotels etc., creating desperately needed jobs. Unfortunately for the entrepreneurs, HAMAS imposed lots of regulations, like dress codes on the beach, banning the sale of alcohol, banning discos etc., to make the whole thing commercialy impossible, since with these restrictions they would never get the international customers there, which they would need. (I think I read it on the BBC website a year or two ago).

Jan
Je Suis Charlie et je suis Ahmet aussi
 
ME AVN FAN
Posts: 12970
Joined: Fri May 31, 2002 12:05 am

RE: How Is The Situation In Lebanon?

Wed Jul 11, 2007 12:08 am

Quoting MD11Engineer (Reply 6):
Acc. to what I have heard, there were plans to make the beach areas of Gaza a tourist place, with hotels etc., creating desperately needed jobs. Unfortunately for the entrepreneurs, HAMAS imposed lots of regulations, like dress codes on the beach, banning the sale of alcohol, banning discos etc., to make the whole thing commercialy impossible, since with these restrictions they would never get the international customers there, which they would need. (I think I read it on the BBC website a year or two ago).

-
Yes, there were very interesting plans for a touristic development on the beaches of Gaza, but as long as Hamas is in power in the Gaza Territory, nothing can go ahead, and the sad fact is that Hamas has not accomplished anything in regard to the economy. The sudden revival of elFatah in the West Bank and in East Jerusalem is not a result of a sudden "popular support" there but the fact that many people there now support Fatah in order to keep Hamas off.

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