United Airline
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Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Sat Sep 08, 2007 9:07 pm

Who will be the next PM of Australia? John Howard still?
 
MadameConcorde
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Sat Sep 08, 2007 9:16 pm

I have a question that is slightly o/t although not totally...

Is the Australian PM John Howard related to Maestro pianist Leslie Howard (also from Australia)?  Confused
There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
 
flyboysp
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Sat Sep 08, 2007 11:40 pm

Quoting United Airline (Thread starter):
John Howard still?

Currently he is still the Prime Minister, however

Quoting United Airline (Thread starter):
Who will be the next PM of Australia?

On current opinion polls, the Australian Labor Party would win the next election meaning Kevin Rudd would become the next Prime Minister.

In the last opinion polls that i have seen, on a two party preferred basis, Labor lead 59% to 41% for the coalition. Current speculation is that the election will be called just after the departure of the Canadian Prime Minister.

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 1):
Is the Australian PM John Howard related to Maestro pianist Leslie Howard (also from Australia)?

I do not believe that they are related.
#proudtobeabulldog
 
baroque
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Sun Sep 09, 2007 12:58 am

Quoting Flyboysp (Reply 2):
In the last opinion polls that i have seen, on a two party preferred basis, Labor lead 59% to 41% for the coalition. Current speculation is that the election will be called just after the departure of the Canadian Prime Minister.

Presumably this departure will be in a cavalcade driven by the Chaser Boys. If I were the Canadian PM, I would demand it as a right! Just joking - I think.

Flybosp is correct, the last polls had the Labor party ahead on what are known as primary votes, which is close to unheard of.

If you want to follow the elections United Airline, you need to get abreast of preferential voting and our extraordinary senate voting system.
http://www.eca.gov.au/systems/single/by_category/preferential.htm
Try that for starters but it gives you nothing of how complex it can be. I always vote "below the line" for the Senate, and a party apparatchik I asked about where my vote said he would find out He came back a week later and said you really could not predict. This is because votes are physically pulled out and put in quotas. If your vote is in an early quota, the preferences you so carefully gave are not counted. If the lower numbers on your paper are eliminated, then your vote will move around from pile to pile. Or that is how I (don't) understand it.

It seems unlikely the final two party preferred will be 59 :41. But it might be about 53 : 47. The former would mean only about a quarter of the present government members would retain their seats - at most. 53:47 would still be a Labor victory but at that point, the distribution within seats of voters starts to become important.

The betting folk have their money on Howard losing.

I too doubt if Leslie H was related, but ex PM Keating's sister Anne was General Manager for United Airlines in Aus!!! Trivium for the day.

Oh, one other thing, VOTING IS COMPULSORY!
 
United Airline
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Sun Sep 09, 2007 3:21 pm

Any chance for John Howard to catch up?

He is quite good to be honest
 
LAXspotter
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Sun Sep 09, 2007 3:28 pm

Quoting United Airline (Thread starter):
John Howard still?

if he becomes PM, I shall not post on anet for a week, and this the election of a man who has no apparent influence where I live, or does he?
"Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel" Samuel Johnson
 
JGPH1A
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Sun Sep 09, 2007 3:31 pm

Quoting United Airline (Reply 4):
He is quite good to be honest

Seems like a significant majority of Australians disagree. Time he was gone, he's just a bald Tony Blair poodle-alike.
Young and beautiful and thin and gorgeous AND BANNED ! Cya at airspaceonline.com, losers
 
andz
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Sun Sep 09, 2007 3:35 pm

oooh.... 6 posts and no one has suggested our own QANTASforever? He WILL be pissed off!!
After Monday and Tuesday even the calendar says WTF...
 
baroque
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Sun Sep 09, 2007 3:50 pm

Quoting United Airline (Reply 4):
Any chance for John Howard to catch up?

He is quite good to be honest

His nickname of Honest John came about in the 70s when it was realised he could never be trusted.

This is the Australian way that he rambles on about. Anyone with red (RED) is know as Blue, or Bluey, if you hear of someone called Shorty be prepared for a 2 metre tall giant when you meet them.

The later version of Honest John is more explanatory, he is also known as the Lying Rodent. Sources if you want, but he is all a bit tedious.

Quoting LAXspotter (Reply 5):
Quoting United Airline (Thread starter):
John Howard still?

if he becomes PM, I shall not post on anet for a week, and this the election of a man who has no apparent influence where I live, or does he?

 checkmark 
Imagine what it is like here, and still the distinct (but small) possibility that the electorate goes mad on election day - after all it has gone mad before!  Wow!  boggled   brokenheart   confused   covereyes   crying   crying   eek   hissyfit   liar   no   ouch   spin   weeping 
Quite a few emoticons for the event though,
 
LAXspotter
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Sun Sep 09, 2007 3:52 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 8):
Imagine what it is like here, and still the distinct (but small) possibility that the electorate goes mad on election day - after all it has gone mad before!
Quite a few emoticons for the event though,

just wondering how are the polls?
"Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel" Samuel Johnson
 
bill142
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Sun Sep 09, 2007 4:39 pm

Quoting Andz (Reply 7):
oooh.... 6 posts and no one has suggested our own QANTASforever? He WILL be pissed off!!

It appears he's banned.
 
VHVXB
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Sun Sep 09, 2007 4:52 pm

Quoting LAXspotter (Reply 9):
just wondering how are the polls?

read replies 2 and 3. It gives you a good indication of how he is polling
 
BNEFlyer
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Sun Sep 09, 2007 5:07 pm

KEVIN07 all the way!

It'll take a good Brissy boy to run this country the right way  Wink
 
LAXspotter
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Sun Sep 09, 2007 5:42 pm

Quoting BNEFlyer (Reply 12):
It'll take a good Brissy boy to run this country the right way

yeh, well where is Howard from, the australian version of texas, Alice Springs?
"Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel" Samuel Johnson
 
Springbok747
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Sun Sep 09, 2007 7:18 pm

Quoting LAXspotter (Reply 13):
yeh, well where is Howard from, the australian version of texas, Alice Springs?

Howard's from Sydney.

Quoting Bill142 (Reply 10):
It appears he's banned.

Ah..no wonder we're not seeing QFF's post around here. How long is he banned for?
אני תומך בישראל
 
baroque
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Sun Sep 09, 2007 9:18 pm

Quoting LAXspotter (Reply 9):
just wondering how are the polls?

The latest is:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/apec/howa...unge/2007/09/09/1189276524682.html
"Howard's poll plunge
Labor's two-party preferred vote rose two points to 57 per cent. The Coalition fell 2 points to 43 per cent."

More details on Monday 10 Sept. The changes refer to the last Herald/Nielsen poll which has different numbers from the ones cited previously.

Insiders on the morning of 9 Sept gave a running average (don't press for how it is calculated, cos I have forgotten) of 57 to 43 IIRC. The aim of the running average is to remove fluctuations that occur in individual polls. So the latest Herald/Nielsen is close to the trend average.

An alternative way to answer your question is that Howard's party is showing a fair few signs of panic, while of course denying that they are panicking.
 
connies4ever
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Sun Sep 09, 2007 9:39 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 3):
If you want to follow the elections United Airline, you need to get abreast of preferential voting and our extraordinary senate voting system.
http://www.eca.gov.au/systems/single/by_category/preferential.htm
Try that for starters but it gives you nothing of how complex it can be. I always vote "below the line" for the Senate, and a party apparatchik I asked about where my vote said he would find out He came back a week later and said you really could not predict. This is because votes are physically pulled out and put in quotas. If your vote is in an early quota, the preferences you so carefully gave are not counted. If the lower numbers on your paper are eliminated, then your vote will move around from pile to pile. Or that is how I (don't) understand it.

So do you think the transferable vote system is superior to the first past the post system ? In Canada there is a growing debate about changing to a transferable system. My problem with what you explained about Oz's system is that it does not appear to be transparent. Heck, if you can't tell where your ballot goes, why bother voting ?

I also think we'd be stuck with permanent coalition governments and eventually splinter into the mess they have in Israel or Italy.
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
 
baroque
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Sun Sep 09, 2007 10:21 pm

Quoting Connies4ever (Reply 16):
So do you think the transferable vote system is superior to the first past the post system ? In Canada there is a growing debate about changing to a transferable system. My problem with what you explained about Oz's system is that it does not appear to be transparent. Heck, if you can't tell where your ballot goes, why bother voting ?

Well I added that bit about the Senate to make sure how complex it CAN be, but mostly you know where your vote will go. What the preferential system does do is allow you to indicate a REAL preference first, and then have another go to make sure which government you want.

So quite a number will vote Green first, but apart from my own electorate a few years ago when Labor were really on the nose, Greens will not get in. So if you voted Green, you next vote is for the party you really would prefer in government. You get the government you want (with luck) but if you wish to administer a kick first, you can do that.

The senate, let us not go into the senate!! But even in the Senate, you can vote above the line and hope the party you prefer have not been a bunch of prats. Eg the Labor in Vic where voting 1 above the line for them ended up putting in a Family First nutter.

You can make the Preferential system as transparent as you like, and I have never thought of it as being non-transparent, but it can be complex. Lack of transparency implies a wish to deceive - not there, but complexity is there.

One problem these days is the state and Fed systems can be different and it can be difficult to remember which is which. But don't worry, both are compulsory!!
 
pilotdude09
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Sun Sep 09, 2007 10:22 pm

Kevin Rudd, hopefully.

I dont agree with all his policies eg. a totally unionised workplace but many more of his policies are better than Howards. And we need a fresh face in charge of Aussie and a fresh PM.

Johhny has had his years and time for him to go.
Qantas, Still calling Australia Home.........
 
CupraIbiza
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Mon Sep 10, 2007 8:09 am

What hasn't been mentioned is that the government enjoys a 16 seat majority. So to form government Rudd/Labour needs to convert its massive opinion poll lead into actual gains in seats. This is where opinion polls fall down. As an example Labour could increase the number of votes it receives dramatically, however if this increase in votes occurs primarily in already safe Labour held seats then Rudd will struggle to form government.

No doubt Howard is in massive trouble, but I dont think it is as clear cut as the opinion polls would lead us to believe
Everyday is a gift…… but why does it have to be a pair of socks?
 
QFA380
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Mon Sep 10, 2007 10:07 am

Quoting Baroque (Reply 3):
our extraordinary senate voting system.

I wish we (Cowper) had a senate seat... We've only got a lower house guy although he is pretty good (Nationals). I have absolutely no doubt that he will get elected again this year. So its up to the rest of Australia to kick Johnny out.

Quoting Springbok747 (Reply 14):
How long is he banned for?

I hope not too much longer. The election will probably be called this week or next and then the fun really begins.

Just a question for those who know anything about our Constitution. Why does the PM get to decide when the election is held? And does this happen in many other countries too?

And I have another question for those who were around back in the early 90's (I was only a couple of years old). How did John Howard get so popular? I mean, you have some popularity in getting put into the Leadership of the Opposition(which is why Costello never will). I know that once he got leadership he was automatically a winner, I read something saying that howard may have a slight chance because unlike when keating was around, the electorate isn't waiting for the day with a baseball bat. Kevin Rudd got popular from being on Sunrise every week, fairly quick ascenion up the political ladder.

Quoting JGPH1A (Reply 6):
Quoting United Airline (Reply 4):
He is quite good to be honest

Seems like a significant majority of Australians disagree. Time he was gone, he's just a bald Tony Blair poodle-alike.

We do disagree. No one knows why we have John Howard as PM. We haven't had a good PM or opposition leader for quite some time until Rudd came along. Howard has managed our economy very poorly, we're in the middle of a boom which had massive potential and while very good, could have been better. Not to mention all the policy blunders he's made over the years.
 
United Airline
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Mon Sep 10, 2007 11:22 am

What's the poll results?
 
QFA380
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Mon Sep 10, 2007 12:25 pm

Quoting United Airline (Reply 21):
What's the poll results?

The SMH had this morning on the front page but Labor is leading 14 points at 57-43 in 2 party preferred. Labor is also up 5 points in the primaries with 49-39% against the Libs.

And another thing, Kevin Rudd has equalled his record for the highest approval rating held by opposition leader in the 35 year history of the polls at 67%, Howards is at 50%. They're saying that unless John Howard really starts doing something dramatic, he's not going to win the election.
 
mal787
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Mon Sep 10, 2007 1:27 pm

Well with a bit of luck John Howard will come back in the polls, the last thing the country can afford at the moment is the total Labour control on both state & federal level's. It will be open slather on everything union wise and take us back to the dark period of the late 70's early 80's. Not only that I have no faith in the labour policies on workplace reform, what we have now does work as opposed to all the union advertising. The changes proposed by Rudd / Gillard are all a whitewash to both the big buseness and the union movement at the moment and if they get in you can bet bottom dollar they will cave in to the union heavies and change the plans asap, the only thing saving us at the moment is the Coalition will still have control of the Senate . Rudd says he is not a puppet, that in my opinion is pure Bull
my 2 Cents worth
Mal787
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CupraIbiza
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Mon Sep 10, 2007 1:56 pm

Quoting Mal787 (Reply 23):
the last thing the country can afford at the moment is the total Labour control on both state & federal level's.

Rudd is always going on about "ending the blame game" between state and federal governments. If he wins the pressure will be on to deliver in this area.
Everyday is a gift…… but why does it have to be a pair of socks?
 
baroque
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:24 pm

Quoting QFA380 (Reply 20):
How did John Howard get so popular?

Two word answer, Peacock, Keating. The Colt from Kooyong (not to mention Downer) was so awful that it had to be Howard once Hewson was sunk by his GST. The irony is that Hewsons GST would probably have been better than Howard's. And then Keating was simply too arrogant - any similarities to the present??

Cupral and Mal are right, a Howard defeat is not as obvious as the polls SEEM to indicate. However, the 1996 vote suggests that once a PM pisses the electorate off (I think even Howard supporters might concede that is happening) his case is terminal.

In the case of Howard, many votes he got in 1995-96 only really left him in 2006-07.

WA remains a bit of a mystery. If Howard holds or even gains a seat there, it makes the eastern states more difficult. My guess, however, is that the result will be clear from the eastern states, so that the W ones will have become irrelevant.

The resignation of Beattie is essentially another nail in Howard's coffin - he says 9 years is enough AND he had a succession planned and what is more executed it.

Wall to wall Labor, that might be because state Liberals are by and large pathetic wastes of space. Hardly a surprise, in NSW since Collins was unseated by a power crazed BLANK they have been third in a two horse race. Those are the state parties on which the Fed Libs are based. It would be easier to argue that having any Lib government is a disaster than that State and Fed labor represent a risk while ever the state Liberal parties remain so weak and in NSW so far out to the hard right.

Come back the moderate liberals from the mid 60s. All is forgiven!
 
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mariner
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Mon Sep 10, 2007 5:02 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 25):
Come back the moderate liberals from the mid 60s. All is forgiven!

Billy McMahon and his mates?

I think I'd chuck a techie.  vomit 

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
QANTAS077
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Mon Sep 10, 2007 6:00 pm

Quoting United Airline (Reply 4):
Any chance for John Howard to catch up?

He is quite good to be honest

sounds like your doing his electioneering too? quite good, watch this video of former PM Keating summing him up perfectly back in the 90's. He's a manipulating, lying ideological zealot who has no policy other than to divide and conquer..he's the most divisive leader this country has ever had.



Quoting LAXspotter (Reply 5):
if he becomes PM, I shall not post on anet for a week, and this the election of a man who has no apparent influence where I live, or does he?

if he becomes PM again then I'll be the first to get on here and say that those who voted for him need their heads read.

Quoting CupraIbiza (Reply 19):

No doubt Howard is in massive trouble, but I dont think it is as clear cut as the opinion polls would lead us to believe

he's in trouble right around the country...and its LABOR not LABOUR.

Quoting Mal787 (Reply 23):
Well with a bit of luck John Howard will come back in the polls, the last thing the country can afford at the moment is the total Labour control on both state & federal level's.

what we don't need is people voting that shouldn't be, like yourself, who have NO understanding of wedge politics nor any understanding of why the state Liberals are in such poor shape, if you haven't figured out that its a ploy in Howard's federalism doctrine then you never will. The state Liberals are deliberately dumbed down so that Howard can play the ALP across the board card, the thing he doesn't realise is that the states keep re-electing ALP governments so they must have a good opinion of the ALP.

Quoting Mal787 (Reply 23):
It will be open slather on everything union wise and take us back to the dark period of the late 70's early 80's.

bullshit...less than 20% of the workforce in Australia is now unionised, stop flogging that same dead horse.

Quoting Mal787 (Reply 23):
The changes proposed by Rudd / Gillard are all a whitewash to both the big buseness and the union movement at the moment and if they get in you can bet bottom dollar they will cave in to the union heavies and change the plans asap,

guess what champ...the changes by Howard are designed to ensure that you get less for more when the boom goes south!
 
baroque
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Mon Sep 10, 2007 11:16 pm

Quoting Mariner (Reply 26):
Quoting Baroque (Reply 25):
Come back the moderate liberals from the mid 60s. All is forgiven!

Billy McMahon and his mates?

I think I'd chuck a techie.

No, god forbid, I think I would chuck more than a techie whatever that is if a silly Billy returned!

Fred Chaney, the NSW Senator whose name I always forget who was dumped down on the ticket because he was actually a liberal and later was prominent in the human rights movement. Bruce Baird was one of the last of the breed. Now he is not Mingster for Defriends or PM, even Fraser would be a treat, especially divorced from his weasily little treasurer!

Chipp of course, and Gorton. They left the party as it swung to the right. Others held on. The irony being that what was the right in the mid 70s, now looks dangerously left as the descendants of Ghenghis Khan populate the Liberal party. Dame Beryl Beaurepaire has not been amused.

Back to Silly Billy, do you recall the cartoonist who caught the essence of him by having him search in papers on his desk with "sift riffle" as thought balloons? Howard tonight managed to think it was internal divisions that caused his loss in 1972, not the total incompetence of the guy. Oh well, keep imagining the past Johnny.
 
YYZAeroEng
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Tue Sep 11, 2007 1:32 am

Quoting Flyboysp (Reply 2):
Current speculation is that the election will be called just after the departure of the Canadian Prime Minister.

Why would Australian elections be tied to the departure of our PM?
Mind that Bus! What bus? *Splat!*
 
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mariner
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Tue Sep 11, 2007 4:11 am

Quoting Baroque (Reply 28):
Chipp of course, and Gorton.

I'll give you Gorton - a terrific bloke, brought down by his own (the dark arts of Malcolm Fraser?).

Chipp? I am more ambivalent, but against him I'll put Bill Snedden. There's a name to forget.

On the other side, there was Bob Santamaria, who effectively kept the ALP out of office for so long.

mariner

ps: "chuck a techie"? Is - or used to be - short for "chuck a technicolor yawn". I miss the old slang. I smile when ebay talks about "spoof". It used to mean something quite other.

[Edited 2007-09-10 21:12:44]
aeternum nauta
 
baroque
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Tue Sep 11, 2007 8:10 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 30):
I'll put Bill Snedden

I think I must have been misunderstood, or even misunderestimated! It was not the whole of the Libs of that era I was saying "bring back" just the tolerable ones and Billy Snotton was NOT one of them.

Surprised you are ambivalent about Chippy, or is it the subsequent history of the Aus Dems? McMahon deserves a swift kick for getting rid of Gorton.

Curiously, mind you, Gorton was the start of economic rationalism. With dear old Lennie Hewitt as his sec when Min for Ed.

Can you send aspirin for the headache caused by my banging my head on the wall about the meaning of techie. I went technical rather than technicolor and was lost. Ruth I can scarcely believe it!
 
CupraIbiza
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Tue Sep 11, 2007 8:17 am

Quoting QANTAS077 (Reply 27):
if he becomes PM again then I'll be the first to get on here and say that those who voted for him need their heads read

First find out what electorate they live in. Because my vote (like many peoples) is totally worthless. I live in a very safe Labor seat - it requires a swing of well over 9%. I reiterate my earlier point. Opinion polls only work if swings are replkicated across the board on election day. Although Baroque your point about 1996 and pissing off the electorate may well ring true.

Local issues also needn't be forgotten. Will the looney Queenslanders link Beattie's council amalgammations with Federal Labor? The 2 marginals in Tasmania that Latham delivered to the Liberals with his forestry policy could be telling. Will one party back the Gunns expansion in Bell Bay one way or the other. Or are both not willing to take the risk and delay taking a stance till after the election. Interesting times ahead.

Quoting YYZAeroEng (Reply 29):
Quoting Flyboysp (Reply 2):
Current speculation is that the election will be called just after the departure of the Canadian Prime Minister.

Why would Australian elections be tied to the departure of our PM?

Well Stephen Harper is addressing our parliament today (I think), its probably a courtesy gesture, that is don't embroil a visiting world leader in domestic politics.
Also his departure will signify that APEC is will and truly over, and the election campaign has been mooted to begin straight after APEC. The Libs think they will get a bounce in the polls with Howard being seen on the world stage with the big leaders..... Very out of touch to think Joe Bloggs cares about APEC.
Everyday is a gift…… but why does it have to be a pair of socks?
 
QANTAS077
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Tue Sep 11, 2007 8:28 am

word is that dolly and Turnbull have withdrawn their support for Howard...

http://www.theage.com.au/news/nation...n-pm/2007/09/11/1189276668402.html
 
CupraIbiza
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Tue Sep 11, 2007 8:33 am

Quoting QANTAS077 (Reply 33):
withdrawn their support for Howard...

Howard's biggest media supporter in town (Andrew Bolt - Herald Sun) was on radio this morning saying that "this isn't working and that at even at this late stage the Libs should contest the election with Costello.
But I have said this for a long time, the nation won't vote for a man with his smirk
Everyday is a gift…… but why does it have to be a pair of socks?
 
QANTAS077
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Tue Sep 11, 2007 8:35 am

Quoting CupraIbiza (Reply 34):
But I have said this for a long time, the nation won't vote for a man with his smirk

they won't vote for Howard either....Howard & Costello are one and the same.
 
CupraIbiza
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Tue Sep 11, 2007 8:39 am

who does that leave them with Turnbull? He could lose his seat
Everyday is a gift…… but why does it have to be a pair of socks?
 
QANTAS077
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Tue Sep 11, 2007 10:18 am

Quoting CupraIbiza (Reply 36):
who does that leave them with Turnbull? He could lose his seat

its on like donkey kong, Bolt reckons he'll be gone by tomorrow afternoon and now we have Turnbull & Downer denying the report, don't expect to hear anything from Costello in the next day.
 
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mariner
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Tue Sep 11, 2007 12:28 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 31):
Surprised you are ambivalent about Chippy, or is it the subsequent history of the Aus Dems?

Both, I guess, though one hangs on the other. I thought what Chipp did was a triumph of disguised ego over realpolitik.

Quoting Baroque (Reply 31):
Can you send aspirin for the headache caused by my banging my head on the wall about the meaning of techie.

Have a cup of tea, a Bex, and a nice lie down. Although it is true that some prefered to say "chuck a technie".

Coming back to this century, I am becoming increasingly interested - to my own shock and for the first time in my life - in something about Howard.

Several seem to be asking: "why doesn't Johnny go?". I am wondering: "what makes Johnny run?".

I can come up with a cliche - a short man with a Napoleon complex - but that's much too easy.

mariner

[Edited 2007-09-11 05:42:02]
aeternum nauta
 
Gemuser
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Tue Sep 11, 2007 1:00 pm

Quoting CupraIbiza (Reply 32):
Quoting YYZAeroEng (Reply 29):
Quoting Flyboysp (Reply 2):
Current speculation is that the election will be called just after the departure of the Canadian Prime Minister.

Why would Australian elections be tied to the departure of our PM?

Well Stephen Harper is addressing our parliament today (I think), its probably a courtesy gesture, that is don't embroil a visiting world leader in domestic politics.

To expand a bit. While the LAST date the election can be held is set by law, 3 years after the return of the writs (formal results) for the last election, the actual date of the election is at the PMs decision. It is traditionally held on a Saturday, NOT during school holidays and is announced usually, between two & six weeks before the date. By tradition no visiting Heads of State or members of the Royal Family are in the country between the time the election is called and the return of the writs for the election. The current government goes into "care taker" mode as the calling of the election dissolves the current Parliament so no parliamentary business can go ahead & all pollies are out campaigning. No major decisions are supposed to be taken during this time.

So no election can be called while ANY head of state (government) is in the country. So until Harper leaves an election can not be called.

Gemuser
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Springbok747
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Tue Sep 11, 2007 1:10 pm

Quoting Gemuser (Reply 39):
So no election can be called while ANY head of state (government) is in the country. So until Harper leaves an election can not be called.

Howard will be hoping Harper can stay here forever Big grin

Elections to be held in early December BTW...wonder why Howard's calling it so late? By that time Labor would have surged ahead further.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...601080&sid=abPL5_ZobtfM&refer=asia
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baroque
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Tue Sep 11, 2007 1:12 pm

Quoting CupraIbiza (Reply 32):
Although Baroque your point about 1996 and pissing off the electorate may well ring true.



Quoting QANTAS077 (Reply 33):
word is that dolly and Turnbull have withdrawn their support for Howard...

http://www.theage.com.au/news/nation...n-pm/2007/09/11/1189276668402.html

That is consistent with an interview with Bolt on ABC newsradio about 10.10 am 11 Sept (oops) EAST that two ministers are about to approach Howard and he will be gone by about Thursday.

Howard's intransigence in the face of the evidence has been astonishing, but then perhaps he was deluding himself too in those other episodes suchs as kids O/B, WMDs and wot else. After last nights effort on the 7.30 report, I thought the lesser Lib mortals would stay quiet, but I guess at a time like this, their fear of the electorate starts to overcome their fear of the boss.

How will a tap on the shoulder go with Work Choices I have to wonder!

Either way if Bolt is correct or if he is not, Howard has a very rocky week. I think Rudd would be well advised to disappear for a couple of days.
 
NAV20
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Tue Sep 11, 2007 1:25 pm

Odd that when this thread was started the answer would have been Howard or Kevin Rudd (known as 'Krudd' round here, is that nickname catching on anywhere else?  ).

Now it looks like it'll be Peter Costello by about Wednesday or Thursday of this week. But only until some time in December.

[Edited 2007-09-11 06:26:11]
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
QANTAS077
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Tue Sep 11, 2007 1:28 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 41):
That is consistent with an interview with Bolt on ABC newsradio about 10.10 am 11 Sept (oops) EAST that two ministers are about to approach Howard and he will be gone by about Thursday.

I've heard that he will be gone by tomorrow afternoon, its being engineered by Turnbull is what I'm also hearing. Howard is now saying that he will fight, but what is he fighting? the party room or the election? Costello won't challenge and where the fuck is the Liberal party president or players like Ron Walker in this mess? Its only going to get worse if (1) he doesn't call the election now or (2) doesn't stand aside for someone else. Howard seems determined too take everyone down with him.

and now we have Sol Trujillo backing Rudd as the best option for PM.
 
CupraIbiza
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Tue Sep 11, 2007 1:36 pm

Quoting QANTAS077 (Reply 43):
Sol Trujillo backing Rudd as the best option for PM

For Telstra or for the country?

Quoting QANTAS077 (Reply 43):
Costello won't challenge

Why do you think he won't challenge?

It looks like its been a big day. Howard has enjoyed rock solid support from this back bench, but this appears to be slipping quite quickly. I mentioned earlier that Costello and his smirk will never be voted in. Turnbull is probably the Libs' best option. Will his multi millionaire status hurt him too much though?
Everyday is a gift…… but why does it have to be a pair of socks?
 
QANTAS077
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Tue Sep 11, 2007 1:49 pm

Quoting CupraIbiza (Reply 44):
For Telstra or for the country?

for the country...read his interview on NBC.

Quoting CupraIbiza (Reply 44):
Why do you think he won't challenge?

he don't have the numbers, only way he'll get the job is having it handed to him...funny that we've not heard from Costello today at all. Its definitely on right now, bookies have suspended betting so something is in the air, not sure if its change or calling of the election.

Turnbull will be lucky to hold Wentworth.
 
CupraIbiza
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Tue Sep 11, 2007 2:14 pm

Quoting QANTAS077 (Reply 45):
Turnbull will be lucky to hold Wentworth.

I said the same eariler in the day, but having had a bit of a re think dont you think that if he was running for PM that would help him over the line

Quoting QANTAS077 (Reply 45):
bookies have suspended betting

Are you sure. Just had a look, still showing 1.40 Labor, 2.90 Coalition.

Maybe you meant betting on what date the election will be held?
Everyday is a gift…… but why does it have to be a pair of socks?
 
QANTAS077
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Tue Sep 11, 2007 2:22 pm

Quoting CupraIbiza (Reply 46):
Are you sure. Just had a look, still showing 1.40 Labor, 2.90 Coalition.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/nation...ting/2007/09/11/1189276691029.html
 
CupraIbiza
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Tue Sep 11, 2007 2:22 pm

These are the dates

Fantastic website

http://www.sportingbetdecider.com/

WHAT SATURDAY WILL THE FEDERAL ELECTION BE HELD?
Sportingbet Australia Prices

October 20th 5.00
October 27th 3.75
November 3rd 6.50
November 10th 3.75
November 17th 5.50
November 24th 7.50
December 1st 10.00
December 8th 14.00
December 15th 16.00
December 22nd 41.00
December 29th 26.00
Any Saturday during January or beyond 51.00
Everyday is a gift…… but why does it have to be a pair of socks?
 
QANTAS077
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?

Tue Sep 11, 2007 2:28 pm

you can bet that they will suspend soon too...just like others are now doing, another piece in the Australian today is suggesting that Howard has lost support of the ministers. My bet is tomorrow afternoon and expect the Liberals to go into free fall from there.

Paul Maley | September 11, 2007

PETER Costello will be prime minister in a week and Kevin Rudd PM by the end of the year, Kim Beazley says.

The former Labor leader said Mr Howard had lost the confidence of his cabinet and his caucus and that a "push" on his leadership was no longer in the planning stages, it was actively under way.

Mr Beazley said Mr Howard’s team had effectively turned on him.

"I think that’s what’s happening now. It’s a manifestation of the Liberal party pushing," Mr Beazley told The Australian.

Mr Beazley, himself a veteran of numerous leadership stoushes, said he "tilted slightly towards the view that (Mr Howard) will go in the next week".

He rejected suggestions the Government had missed its opportunity to change horses, saying if Mr Costello assumed the leadership the Government could push the election out until December.

He said if Mr Howard attempted to do that it would look like he was running.

“Costello could put forward the excuse that he’s putting a government in place. Howard can’t do that,’’ Mr Beazley said.

Mr Beazley said he "can’t see" the Opposition losing the election no matter who was leading the government.

“We’ve been so far ahead for so long … For the Government to win it would be one of the great political comebacks. We haven’t had a poll saying they could win for months," he said.

Mr Beazley said if Mr Howard was “absolutely determined" to hang on it would be difficult to replace him.

“But if word got out that cabinet and caucus wanted him to go it would be the last nail in his coffin. They’d all hang with him," Mr Beazley said.


http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/

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