LHStarAlliance
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Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Mon Sep 17, 2007 2:54 am

Hi Guys ,


What do you think of buying Gold as a reserve in case of an Inflation ?

My father just bought 10000 € yesterday I´m thinking of buying also for 700€ .

What do you all think ? Is it worth it , or is it likely to fall soon ?


Here some stats of the last Months/years:

http://www.comdirect.de/

thanks for all answers ,


Konstantin
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Klaus
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RE: Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Mon Sep 17, 2007 3:21 am

It's a somewhat volatile investment... I wouldn't be surprised if at least some of its recent appreciation was due to people seeking refuge from USD devaluation.

I have no substantial knowledge of the issue, but I'm rather sceptical about gold being a generic safe haven or particularly profitable in the long or even medium term with the economic environment we've got.

30 Year Gold Price History


Apart from the peaks there seems to be a curious absence of inflation-compensating appreciation over the long term if I'm reading this right...

Being in the Eurozone doesn't look like the worst thing there is right now, but gambling with gold might possibly still be profitable - if you can live with the risks.
 
Dougloid
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RE: Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Mon Sep 17, 2007 3:35 am

Quoting Klaus (Reply 1):
Apart from the peaks there seems to be a curious absence of inflation-compensating appreciation over the long term if I'm reading this right...

Here's an interesting article in which the author has adjusted the price of gold for inflation. It's food for thought for the gold bugs who always seem to emerge when financial institutions are under pressure as they are today, mostly due to making improvident investments in snake oil commoditized mortgage securities and their derivatives.

I remember the exact day that gold crashed in 1980. I was driving along Imperial Highway in Los Angeles in my Ford Fiesta listening to the radio. It briefly spiked to over $800 on local markets that morning as I recall.

If you'd bought gold at or near the high before the bubble burst, you'd be below this guy's chart and off the page at this date and time.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/laird021506.html


While we're on this subject what happened to Glassman, the author of Dow 36,000? Is he still asking if you want fries with that burger?

http://www.amazon.com/Dow-36-000-Strategy-Profiting/dp/0609806998
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
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HAWK21M
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RE: Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Mon Sep 17, 2007 7:39 pm

Its very common out here that Indians spend a lot on Gold.
And kept as their backup for financial emergencies.

regds
MEL
I may not win often, but I damn well never lose!!! ;)
 
Klaus
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RE: Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Mon Sep 17, 2007 7:53 pm

Quoting HAWK21M (Reply 3):
Its very common out here that Indians spend a lot on Gold.
And kept as their backup for financial emergencies.

How much does your currency fluctuate?
 
ZakHH
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RE: Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:00 pm

Quoting LHStarAlliance (Thread starter):

How come you're afraid of inflation? Do you think your favoured party may win the next elections?

Anyway, I'd definitely not invest into gold. With inflation being very moderate, and interest rates rising, there is more attractive investments if you are looking for safe options. Tagesgeld rates are close to 5%, with inflation being below 2%. That makes a net return of some 3%, without notable risks.

If you want to gamble, you should make sure that you know what you gamble with. Judging from your above question, you don't (neither do I, so no offense intended). Thus, investing into gold is as good as playing the lottery.

And finally: seeking advice in internet forums is as smart for investments as it is for dating...
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Beaucaire
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RE: Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:44 pm

I invested this morning in 100 sharesof Air France,who have been dropping throughout the last 12 days and lost 15 % in six weeks.
There is of course the risk that they keep dropping-but that's a calculated risk I take,considering the excellent basic parameters of the airline.
Personally I prefer the gamble of stock-exchange -the risk is clearly higher but the rewards in case of success usually leveraged as compared to investment in Gold.Air France is undervalued and will gain again until 30-40 €/share (currently 25,43 - I bought at 25.34 ) )
Please respect animals - don't eat them...
 
CaptOveur
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RE: Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:53 pm

Quoting LHStarAlliance (Thread starter):
What do you think of buying Gold as a reserve in case of an Inflation ?

in the long term it barely tracks with the risk free rate. You are better off investing in a money market mutual fund or just buying savings bonds- about the same risk and a lot more stability.

You can make money with gold trading in short term, but that is a lot of work.

There is also the tin foil hat argument that after the apocalypse when all our money is worthless gold is all we will have- and ammunition.
Things were better when it was two guys in a dorm room.
 
Dougloid
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RE: Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Mon Sep 17, 2007 11:08 pm

Gold bugs get schtupped on a regular basis too.

Back in the day, a guy who worked in the shop got a settlement for a car accident he was in-it was about $50,000 1980 dollars. He put it all into something called Goldex, which was a trading outfit that would trade your account for you, buying and selling gold. So he quit his job, and a couple weeks later he showed up to pick up his rollaway and asked me, rhetorically, "How does it feel to have to work for a living?" At that point he was up about $40,000 on paper.

Well, then gold took a dump, just like Klaus' chart shows. He lost his gains, his original $50,000 and went negative. Some rather rough characters came looking for him, and last i heard he'd decamped to somewhere in Vermont.
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
huskyaviation
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RE: Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Tue Sep 18, 2007 1:14 am

Buying gold is definitely not a safe investment, and you definitely shouldn't expect any kind of return on it.

Silver did the same thing in 1979-1980. My dad deals a lot in gold and silver bullion and he knows a LOT of people that absolutely lost their shirt in gold and silver speculation back then. The Hunt brothers had cornered the silver market in 1979 and drove the price up from $5 to $54 (IIRC) in less than a year by late 1979. Other speculators jumped in to make fast money, but the Federal Reserve intervened, and on March 27, 1980 (my dad remembers the day not too fondly) the floor on silver dropped out. The Hunt brothers, by the way, ended up declaring bankruptcy and was convicted for conspiracy to manipulate the silver market.
 
rfields5421
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RE: Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Tue Sep 18, 2007 1:33 am

Quoting HAWK21M (Reply 3):
Its very common out here that Indians spend a lot on Gold.
And kept as their backup for financial emergencies.

There are two types of buying gold.

1 - Investing in a fund or other account which buys gold or shares in a gold venture - key point - no physical possession of the gold

2 - Purchase of actual gold with physical possession

The first type plans for the price of gold to go up and being able to sell the investment for a profit in the future - usually short term.

The second type isn't so much worried about the value of gold, but the value of their other investments and sources of funds. The concern is that either other investments will fail, banks will fail, or currency will be worthless.

The second type of buying often occurs in unstable countries - though cultural history of such in the past may make people, especially older people, feel the physical purchase of gold is necessary.

I suspect the OP was speaking of the first type of purchase (and no I don't see where gold has performed as well as other investments over the past few decades - gold is just as subject to speculative price changes as any stock)

I suspect the second instance concerns the folks in India.
 
Dougloid
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RE: Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Tue Sep 18, 2007 1:53 am

Quoting RFields5421 (Reply 10):
There are two types of buying gold.

1 - Investing in a fund or other account which buys gold or shares in a gold venture - key point - no physical possession of the gold

That suggests that one could sell short. It's good to make money both ways-
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
Derico
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RE: Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Tue Sep 18, 2007 1:57 am

People lining up in front of banks in Britain? I saw this a few minutes ago and I really thought it was a joke, I can't find much online about it either. But is it true that some major banks in Britain are in danger of failing?

What the...???
My internet was not shut down, the internet has shut me down
 
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HAWK21M
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RE: Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Tue Sep 18, 2007 4:42 pm

Quoting Captoveur (Reply 7):
You are better off investing in a money market mutual fund or just buying savings bonds-



Quoting Klaus (Reply 4):
How much does your currency fluctuate

Has not fluctuated much compared to world markets in the last Decade.although the Stock market has been booming in the same duration.

regds
MEL
I may not win often, but I damn well never lose!!! ;)
 
BarfBag
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RE: Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Wed Sep 19, 2007 3:59 am

Quoting Klaus (Reply 4):
How much does your currency fluctuate?

The Rupee has an informal loose peg on the dollar - the central bank attempts to keep the rate stable and prevent rapid fluctuations unless it finds it much too untenable. When the situation becomes hard to manage, they let it move to a new equilibrium and try to maintain it. For example, the Rupee appreciated 10% vs the dollar this year after two fiscals of over 9% GDP growth caused massive capital inflows over $30 billion last year, putting pressure on the currency to appreciate. But once it reached a stable high, the central bank intervened to prevent further movement in the last 2-3 months.

The vast majority of gold consumption in India is by private buyers and is culturally driven. We are the largest gold consumer in the world, and have been so for several years. The marriage and festival season typically sees the peak of annual gold consumption. The government is trying to initiate a gold bond program to unlock the latent capital in gold, which probably runs into several hundreds of billions of dollars right now. In the past, this wasn't successful because of chronic inflation, but now the situation is different, and a bond measure may work.
 
Klaus
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RE: Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Wed Sep 19, 2007 7:15 am

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 14):
The vast majority of gold consumption in India is by private buyers and is culturally driven.

That explains it then...
 
RJdxer
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RE: Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:38 am

Quoting HuskyAviation (Reply 9):
Buying gold is definitely not a safe investment, and you definitely shouldn't expect any kind of return on it.

I disagree with the first assertation and agree with latter one. I have over 50k in gold bullion in my possesion. Not certificates but the actual gold. It's a hedge against real inflation brought on by a large scale calamity that disrupts the national economy. Gold is gold, it rarely loses a lot of its value yet when the chips are down, people will take it when other types currency might be considered suspect or have lost a lot of its value. In addition Gold can't go bankrupt because someone cooked the books or a terrrorist flew an airplane into a building.

If you are buying on the assumption of making a profit in the short term, gold probably isn't quite the investment your looking for. If, on the other hand, you are looking for a completely safe investment that will always be worth something, and plan on keeping it for the long haul, then gold bullion, as a part of your total investment strategy would be my suggestion.
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Klaus
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RE: Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:13 pm

Quoting RJdxer (Reply 16):
If, on the other hand, you are looking for a completely safe investment that will always be worth something

"Something" meaning anything down to a fraction of the value you originally invested, especially in the long run... (see the graph above)
 
rfields5421
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RE: Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Thu Sep 20, 2007 12:53 am

Quoting Klaus (Reply 17):
Something" meaning anything down to a fraction of the value you originally invested, especially in the long run... (see the graph above)

Yes, but in RJdxer's example - stock, bonds and paper currency will be worth nothing.

Gold as he has purchased it is insurance against a disaster which destroys the economy. Nothing more, nothing less.

Key words:

Quoting RJdxer (Reply 16):
as a part of your total investment strategy

It certainly isn't for most of your money, certainly isn't for agressive, or even moderate growth. But it's one thing which will not disappear in an economic collapse.

Though personally, I invest in some productive farm land. Even the guy with gold wants to eat.
 
Klaus
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RE: Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Thu Sep 20, 2007 1:12 am

Quoting RFields5421 (Reply 18):
Gold as he has purchased it is insurance against a disaster which destroys the economy. Nothing more, nothing less.

Sure. Just don't expect the insurance premiums to be free.
 
rfields5421
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RE: Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Thu Sep 20, 2007 1:22 am

Insurance is a bet you make against yourself, which you hope to lose.
 
RJdxer
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RE: Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Fri Sep 21, 2007 10:42 am

Quoting Klaus (Reply 17):
"Something" meaning anything down to a fraction of the value you originally invested, especially in the long run... (see the graph above)

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/13eeaa62-66c0-11dc-a218-0000779fd2ac.html

Spot gold prices in London rose to $726 an ounce, just below the 27-year high of $730 an ounce reached in May 2006. It later traded at $722.65.
Gold prices in the Comex futures market in New York jumped overnight to a 27-year high of $735 a troy ounce as investors took refuge in the bullion from a weakening US dollar.


My gold cost $375 an ounce when I bought it in 2005.

Quoting RFields5421 (Reply 18):
Though personally, I invest in some productive farm land. Even the guy with gold wants to eat.

Yeah but you have to pay taxes on it in the meantime.
Warm winds blowing, heating blue skies, and a road that goes forever. I'm going to Texas!
 
fbgdavidson
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RE: Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Fri Sep 21, 2007 11:45 am

Quoting LHStarAlliance (Thread starter):
What do you think of buying Gold as a reserve in case of an Inflation ?

I'm not complaining about the performance of my precious metal mutual funds, trailing 4 week returns of 24%  biggrin . Fortunately I'd been watching it dip by about 24% in the four weeks leading up to that and bought in just before it hit the bottom  Wink
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CupraIbiza
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RE: Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Fri Sep 21, 2007 1:27 pm

I suggest the best way to invest in gold is to buy shares in a gold producer. Someone like Newmont, Lihir Gold, etc or Anglo American/BHP/Rio Tinto if you want a diversified mining play.

Benefit of owning shares in a gold miner is you get the benefit of liquidity of any other share, but also the "tangibility" that is the value of the company share is almost wholly linked to the gold price, in effect you will own something that tracks the gold price, without its illiquid nature.
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Klaus
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RE: Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Fri Sep 21, 2007 7:44 pm

Quoting RJdxer (Reply 21):
My gold cost $375 an ounce when I bought it in 2005.

Yeah, right now we're on the up-ramp of another spike after a long period of declining value when looking from the Euro zone (adjusted for inflation).

Doesn't change the fact that it's apparently not a solid long-term investment but a highly speculative one which just happens to be in one of its occasional upswings right now.
 
RJdxer
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RE: Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Fri Sep 21, 2007 10:59 pm

Quoting Klaus (Reply 24):
Doesn't change the fact that it's apparently not a solid long-term investment but a highly speculative one which just happens to be in one of its occasional upswings right now.

Forbes richest list is out today, is your name on it? I know mine isn't. But I also know that if I sold my gold today I would have more than doubled my money. I also know that if I hold on to my gold, at some point I will be able to convert it into a currency that will still make me money, or I can hold on to it and at the very least get what I paid for it. Highly speculative and gold are not two things that belong in the same sentence. It all depends on what you are looking for out of the investment.
Warm winds blowing, heating blue skies, and a road that goes forever. I'm going to Texas!
 
Klaus
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RE: Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Fri Sep 21, 2007 11:48 pm

Quoting RJdxer (Reply 25):
lso know that if I hold on to my gold, at some point I will be able to convert it into a currency that will still make me money, or I can hold on to it and at the very least get what I paid for it.

Tell that to someone who bought in 1983.

The current appreciation is very likely just as temporary as the earlier one (see graph above).

Which simply means it's speculative, not a safe long-term investment. The current relatively rapid change also points in that direction.
 
PPVRA
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RE: Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 6:06 am

Quoting Klaus (Reply 26):

Which simply means it's speculative, not a safe long-term investment. The current relatively rapid change also points in that direction.

It may lose value, but it will never be worthless like this:



People turn to gold in times of uncertainty because it is not paper.

PS: and in economic tough times, it's value climbs. So in a sense, gold is a financial insurance.

[Edited 2007-09-21 23:15:03]
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
rfields5421
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RE: Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 6:46 am

Okay gentlemen - please chill.

He thinks he made a good investment, you don't.

Agree to disagree - save the thread and come back in 30 years and let us know how it worked out.

I learned long ago that there are people in this world who can make a lot of money on investments I think are too risky. They can also loose a lot and do sometimes.

But it's their money.

And to some folks it worthwile just to be players in the game - win, lose or draw.

[Edited 2007-09-21 23:47:11]
 
RJdxer
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RE: Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 9:27 am

Quoting PPVRA (Reply 27):
PS: and in economic tough times, it's value climbs. So in a sense, gold is a financial insurance.

I've tried to explain this a couple of times to no avail. Would I suggest that the OP sink all his money into gold in hopes of cashing in a big gain in the short term, certainly not. Would I suggest that he take some of his long term investment money and put it in gold and forget about it, you bet. With gold you don't have to worry about a new ceo that trashes the company, or a cfo cooking the books, or a general meltdown of the whole industry. So a percentage of your investment, in gold does just what PPVRA suggests. It won't generate big gains but it won't go up in smoke either.
Warm winds blowing, heating blue skies, and a road that goes forever. I'm going to Texas!
 
Klaus
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RE: Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 9:41 am

Quoting RJdxer (Reply 29):
Would I suggest that the OP sink all his money into gold in hopes of cashing in a big gain in the short term, certainly not. Would I suggest that he take some of his long term investment money and put it in gold and forget about it, you bet.

Well, when I look at the long-term trend, especially the Euro-related one shown above, that is exactly wrong.

While Gold has exhibited a significant long-term decline, there have been a few rapid spikes and we appear to witness another one right now.

So short-term speculation might indeed get you some gains if you're quick and alert enough to take advantage of short-term ups and downs, but even during its presumably stable phase inflation ate away at its nominally stable value.

And there is definitely no long-time upwards trend as far as can be seen from the long-term chart - rather the opposite.

Quoting RJdxer (Reply 29):
With gold you don't have to worry about a new ceo that trashes the company, or a cfo cooking the books, or a general meltdown of the whole industry.

No, just rapid or progressive devaluation due to lack of demand or expansion of supply.
 
RJdxer
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RE: Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 9:54 am

Quoting Klaus (Reply 30):
And there is definitely no long-time upwards trend as far as can be seen from the long-term chart - rather the opposite.

I live in a dollar world. Gold has not undergone a significant price adjustment in years. If you adjust for inflation gold is acutally cheap at the current price. Gold in 1983 was selling for $350 an ounce. That's $350 an ounce in 1983 dollars. I bought my gold at $375 an ounce in 2005. Gold is now trading at $730 an ounce. If it drops back to $500 an ounce, am I still ahead? Do you really think it will drop back to less than $375 an ounce given what the U.S. dollar is doing? If you don't think it's a good investment fine, I do and that's that. My entire investment portfolio is not geared towards gold, nor would I advise the OP to do that. Holding some gold though is insurance in a volatile time as gold has never been worth nothing. If you want to advise him not to buy any then go ahead.
Warm winds blowing, heating blue skies, and a road that goes forever. I'm going to Texas!
 
Klaus
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RE: Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 10:03 am

Quoting RJdxer (Reply 31):
Do you really think it will drop back to less than $375 an ounce given what the U.S. dollar is doing?

History would suggest it will.

Even relative to the US$ the value has been going down for many years. Good luck with riding the current spike with a net gain, but it looks a lot like many people being at risk of losing their shirts again like others did back in the eighties before them. The more gradual inflation-based decline in the past two decades would be easier to swallow, but still not really attractive.
 
Klaus
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RE: Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 10:18 am

Just to illustrate: This is the long-term gold price in US$:

(Again from 30 Year Gold Price History)


And that's just the nominal gold price! Over 30 years, inflation has also significantly reduced the actual value which you'd need to multiply with the declining graph. Not a pretty picture at all - the only upside is the current up-ramp which may be good for some short-term gains while the US$ is plummeting and some people are in fact trying to save their hides by jumping into gold.

And as with every transient bubble: The first to sell again will make a killing, the last to sell ends up being roadkill.
 
PPVRA
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RE: Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Sun Sep 23, 2007 4:05 am

Inflation-adjusted gold:
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
AeroWesty
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RE: Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Sun Sep 23, 2007 6:30 am

Quoting Klaus (Reply 33):
And as with every transient bubble: The first to sell again will make a killing, the last to sell ends up being roadkill.

LOL, I like that line, I may use it somewhere else sometime.  Wink

A guy I used to work with had a theory about gold, which he would use as an argument for holding limited amounts of it. According to him, market forces may cause the price of gold to go up and down, but its natural floor is the cost of mining it. When you buy above that level, you're in a speculative area where you may lose money if you're forced to sell (for various reasons), but if you accumulate when the cost of gold is relative to its price to mine, you won't lose much no matter when or why you sell it. I've never believed that his theory was an unreasonable outlook for when to purchase gold.
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Klaus
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RE: Buying Gold - Financial Crisis?

Sun Sep 23, 2007 7:19 am

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 35):
LOL, I like that line, I may use it somewhere else sometime.

Please do. It's open source. Big grin

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