cfalk
Posts: 10221
Joined: Mon Dec 04, 2000 6:38 pm

The Next Time You See A Hurricane Forecaster...

Wed Nov 28, 2007 10:02 pm

...Kick him in the nuts.

Tell him to go out and get a real job. Like Carnival fortune-telling. They seem to require the same skills - lots of BS and a gullible audience

The last two years (after Katrina in 2005) were both predicted to be very active, and getting worse (global warming, you know). Instead, both seasons have been extremely calm.

Remember these threads?
Noaa Releases 2006 Hurricane Predictions (by DeltaGator May 22 2006 in Non Aviation)?threadid=1229597&searchid=1229597&s=hurricane+season#ID1229597
The Prediction For The '07 Hurricane Season Is... (by KFLLCFII Apr 3 2007 in Non Aviation)?threadid=1575630&searchid=1578317&s=hurricane+season#ID1578317
The only thing you should feel when shooting a terrorist: Recoil.
 
redngold
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RE: The Next Time You See A Hurricane Forecaster...

Wed Nov 28, 2007 10:09 pm

The problem isn't with the forecasters - it's with people not understanding probabilities. The vast majority of hurricane forecasts are hedged with percentages and distance ranges, not specific areas and dates. Most people see "chance of major hurricane in the Atlantic" and don't notice "10% chance in June, within 200 miles of the Atlantic coast, unlikely to make landfall in the U.S."
Up, up and away!
 
jamesbuk
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RE: The Next Time You See A Hurricane Forecaster...

Wed Nov 28, 2007 10:10 pm

Just out of interest, do you think they could predict it to be active because they couldn't predict it accurately that year, so they predict it active and then if theres a hurricane they say "we told you" if they dont say its active, and theres a hurricane then everyone might say "well the damned people never told us"

A bit like the weather websites over here, for a week in advance its normally always predicted rainy/crap (despite the fact it normally is  Wink ) and then people can't blame the weather channels if it is rainy on what was predicted a sunny day.

Rgds --James--
You cant have your cake and eat it... What the hells the point in having it then!!!
 
Halcyon
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RE: The Next Time You See A Hurricane Forecaster...

Wed Nov 28, 2007 10:12 pm



Quoting Redngold (Reply 1):

I think that there are better estimates that are based on predicted total cyclonic energy, which seems more appropriate.

Of course, form what I understand, those estimates were also quite high.
 
airfoilsguy
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RE: The Next Time You See A Hurricane Forecaster...

Wed Nov 28, 2007 10:13 pm



Quoting Cfalk (Thread starter):
Kick him in the nuts.

Tell him to go out and get a real job. Like Carnival fortune-telling. They seem to require the same skills - lots of BS and a gullible audience

Kick the weatherman as well. With Doppler radar available on the internet now any moron can tell you if its going to rain tomorrow.
It's not a near miss it's a near hit!!
 
kmh1956
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RE: The Next Time You See A Hurricane Forecaster...

Wed Nov 28, 2007 11:39 pm

The one thing I have learned about hurricanes, living in Bermuda all my life, is that the one thing you can predict about them is that they are unpredictable.
'Somebody tell me why I'm on my own if there's a soulmate for everyone' :Natasha Bedingfield
 
airtran737
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RE: The Next Time You See A Hurricane Forecaster...

Wed Nov 28, 2007 11:44 pm



Quoting Cfalk (Thread starter):
...Kick him in the nuts.

I agree. I have been waiting for Katrina Part II to come and finish off NoLa, but I don't get any result. Waiting for this thing to come is like being a Cubs fan, there's always next year.
Nice Trip Report!!! Great Pics, thanks for posting!!!! B747Forever
 
AirframeAS
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RE: The Next Time You See A Hurricane Forecaster...

Thu Nov 29, 2007 12:06 am

You guys have to remember, that these weather forcasters are actually folks with college degrees in journalism. They are also NWA certified as well (Not the airline, mind you...)
A Safe Flight Begins With Quality Maintenance On The Ground.
 
desertjets
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RE: The Next Time You See A Hurricane Forecaster...

Thu Nov 29, 2007 12:20 am



Quoting AirframeAS (Reply 7):
You guys have to remember, that these weather forcasters are actually folks with college degrees in journalism.

[Bill Lumburg voice] Ummm, yeah, I'm going to have to go ahead and disagree with you there. [/Bill Lumberg voice]

The annual predictions coming out of the National Hurricane Center and NOAA are being made by folks with advanced degrees in meteorology. Its the blond with the big rack who is reading the forecast from the National Weather Service is the one with the journalism/communications degree.
Stop drop and roll will not save you in hell. --- seen on a church marque in rural Virginia
 
cfalk
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RE: The Next Time You See A Hurricane Forecaster...

Thu Nov 29, 2007 2:29 am



Quoting Airfoilsguy (Reply 4):
Kick the weatherman as well. With Doppler radar available on the internet now any moron can tell you if its going to rain tomorrow.

That's different. Predicting the weather a day or a week in advance is possible, with the probability of a correct forecast declining rapidly with each passing day. As RednGold said, it's all about probabilities, and attempting to forecast the weather more than a week or two ahead of time has no more probability of being accurate than an astrological reading.
The only thing you should feel when shooting a terrorist: Recoil.
 
PC12Fan
Posts: 1967
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RE: The Next Time You See A Hurricane Forecaster...

Thu Nov 29, 2007 10:18 pm

Oh geee....... I didn't realize that meteorology was an exact science.  Yeah sure
Just when I think you've said the stupidest thing ever, you keep talkin'!
 
BR715-A1-30
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RE: The Next Time You See A Hurricane Forecaster...

Thu Nov 29, 2007 10:34 pm



Quoting Cfalk (Thread starter):

You are a very shallow person. Nobody is right ALL the time. Jim Cantore, and the Weather Channel saved HUNDREDS of THOUSANDS of lives of those who listened to him and evacuated before Katrina hit.. You sound like the type who would have ignored him, henceforth probably would have either died, or would have been one of the poor souls who had to live without for so many months (and are still living without, in some cases). Before you dis somebody, why don't you tell everybody how many lives you save.
Puhdiddle
 
cfalk
Posts: 10221
Joined: Mon Dec 04, 2000 6:38 pm

RE: The Next Time You See A Hurricane Forecaster...

Thu Nov 29, 2007 10:48 pm



Quoting BR715-A1-30 (Reply 11):
You are a very shallow person. Nobody is right ALL the time. Jim Cantore, and the Weather Channel saved HUNDREDS of THOUSANDS of lives of those who listened to him and evacuated before Katrina hit..

And you don't read very well.

As I said, short-term forecasting works fine, out to a week or two. But history seems to support the idea that these long-term forecasts are just as accurate as flipping a coin. I'm not advocating doing away with the weather channel, just the idea that you can predict specific weather patterns months or years into the future.
The only thing you should feel when shooting a terrorist: Recoil.
 
WellHung
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RE: The Next Time You See A Hurricane Forecaster...

Thu Nov 29, 2007 10:52 pm

Maybe if they had an iPhone like that pilot, their forecasts would be more accurate.
 
PC12Fan
Posts: 1967
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RE: The Next Time You See A Hurricane Forecaster...

Fri Nov 30, 2007 3:07 am



Quoting Cfalk (Reply 12):
But history seems to support the idea that these long-term forecasts are just as accurate as flipping a coin.

Using the past to predict the future makes no sense to begin with, but it's the only thing there is to use for a comparison. When you come up with something better, there are a lot of people that would like to talk with you.
Just when I think you've said the stupidest thing ever, you keep talkin'!
 
cumulonimbus
Posts: 508
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RE: The Next Time You See A Hurricane Forecaster...

Fri Nov 30, 2007 7:27 pm



Quoting Cfalk (Thread starter):
Kick him in the nuts.

Go ahead and Try...

On another note the "Predictions" we do make do save lives. It's our "Predictions" that allow us to give Tornado warnings (save lives) and Hurricane warnings (save lives). Hundreds if not even thousands of lives are saved because of this. So if you think we should all go away I'm glad people like you are not in charge, because the lives of Millions world wide will be in danger yearly.


Mike
 
AirframeAS
Posts: 9811
Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2004 3:56 pm

RE: The Next Time You See A Hurricane Forecaster...

Fri Nov 30, 2007 9:33 pm



Quoting DesertJets (Reply 8):
Quoting AirframeAS (Reply 7):
You guys have to remember, that these weather forcasters are actually folks with college degrees in journalism.

[Bill Lumburg voice] Ummm, yeah, I'm going to have to go ahead and disagree with you there. [/Bill Lumberg voice]

Back at ya. News organizations just don't put anyone in front of a camera unless they have a degree in journalism/communications degree. Almost every profile I have read of newscasters have a degree in at least journalism. It's not too difficult to figure out.

Now as far as.....

Quoting DesertJets (Reply 8):
the blond with the big rack who is reading the forecast from the National Weather Service is the one with the journalism/communications degree.

If you are talking about that supermodel that tried to be a newscaster on that FOX tv show (which lasted only one episode), she never had a degree, hence as to why she totally blew it. She didn't know how to do anything!
A Safe Flight Begins With Quality Maintenance On The Ground.
 
BR715-A1-30
Posts: 6525
Joined: Thu May 30, 2002 9:30 am

RE: The Next Time You See A Hurricane Forecaster...

Sat Dec 01, 2007 6:40 am



Quoting Cfalk (Reply 12):
As I said, short-term forecasting works fine, out to a week or two. But history seems to support the idea that these long-term forecasts are just as accurate as flipping a coin. I'm not advocating doing away with the weather channel, just the idea that you can predict specific weather patterns months or years into the future.

Well, as far as not being able to predict specific weather patterns, I'll agree with you there. As a matter of fact, I would almost agree with all of it. I just wouldn't kick a weatherman in the nuts.. That's just wrong  Silly
Puhdiddle
 
Pyrex
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RE: The Next Time You See A Hurricane Forecaster...

Sat Dec 01, 2007 6:46 am



Quoting Airfoilsguy (Reply 4):
Kick the weatherman as well. With Doppler radar available on the internet now any moron can tell you if its going to rain tomorrow.

Heck, with the iPhone any moron can tell whether it is safe to fly a jetliner full of passengers or not, no-one needs ATC anymore.
Read this very carefully, I shall write this only once!

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