RJdxer
Topic Author
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First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Sat Jan 12, 2008 2:04 am

In his best Chuck Heston voice......

DAAAAMMMNNNNNNNN IT TO HELL....that global warming has done it again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/stor.../2008-01-11-snow-iraq_N.htm?csp=34

At least they had a chance to see it snow before the temperature shoots up to 150 degrees in 2009.
Warm winds blowing, heating blue skies, and a road that goes forever. I'm going to Texas!
 
andessmf
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Sat Jan 12, 2008 2:05 am

This is all Bush's fault!!!  grumpy 



 silly 
 
Klaus
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Sat Jan 12, 2008 2:09 am

weather != climate
 
Go3Team
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Sat Jan 12, 2008 4:10 am

Girlfriends brother called their parents early this morning from Camp Korean Village to relay the news. Pretty interesting.
Yay Pudding!
 
AsstChiefMark
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Sat Jan 12, 2008 4:14 am

Maybe our illustrious intelligence community dropped the ball again. It's fallout from the latest Iranian nuclear weapon test.
Red tail...Red tail...Red tail...Red tail...Red tail...Red tail...Red tail...Red tail...Damned MSP...Red tail...Red tail
 
andessmf
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Sat Jan 12, 2008 4:24 am



Quoting AsstChiefMark (Reply 4):
It's fallout from the latest Iranian nuclear weapon test.

Hmm...you may be right...let's wait for the confirmation...  scratchchin 
 
fumanchewd
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Sat Jan 12, 2008 5:37 am

Most likely its just Bush's dandruff blowing in from Israel.
In the time of chimpanzees, I was a monkey...
 
B747forever
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Sat Jan 12, 2008 10:22 am

Congrats for all down there!!!

Quoting RJdxer (Thread starter):
that global warming has done it again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

LOL!!!
Work Hard, Fly Right
 
Alessandro
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Sat Jan 12, 2008 2:28 pm

Hope it calm them down...
From New Yorqatar to Califarbia...
 
LHStarAlliance
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Sat Jan 12, 2008 2:53 pm



Quoting RJdxer (Thread starter):
that global warming has done it again

The global warming won't necessary produce warmth in the Earth , in fact it could make Europe much colder as the Gulf stream could stop existing
Boycott The Olympic Games In Beijing !
 
Fiatstilojtd
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Sat Jan 12, 2008 3:01 pm

How long will it take until we have the first conspiracy theory regarding snow in Iraq and Chemtrails ?  Wink
 
Klaus
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Sat Jan 12, 2008 3:03 pm



Quoting Fiatstilojtd (Reply 10):
How long will it take until we have the first conspiracy theory regarding snow in Iraq and Chemtrails ?

Has anyone actually tasted that snow to check that it's really just water ice...?  hypnotized 
 
AsstChiefMark
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Sat Jan 12, 2008 3:08 pm



Quoting Klaus (Reply 11):
Has anyone actually tasted that snow to check that it's really just water ice...?

Some people did, but they died soon thereafter.
Red tail...Red tail...Red tail...Red tail...Red tail...Red tail...Red tail...Red tail...Damned MSP...Red tail...Red tail
 
B747forever
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Sat Jan 12, 2008 3:17 pm



Quoting AsstChiefMark (Reply 12):
Quoting Klaus (Reply 11):
Has anyone actually tasted that snow to check that it's really just water ice...?

Some people did, but they died soon thereafter

LOL!!! So what does that mean??  Wink
Work Hard, Fly Right
 
Klaus
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Sat Jan 12, 2008 3:21 pm



Quoting AsstChiefMark (Reply 12):
Some people did, but they died soon thereafter.

With a smile on their faces?

Who knows what kind of "snow" that might actually turn out to be...!  mischievous 
 
Go3Team
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Sat Jan 12, 2008 3:39 pm



Quoting Klaus (Reply 11):
Has anyone actually tasted that snow to check that it's really just water ice...?

Don't eat the yellow snow.
Yay Pudding!
 
AsstChiefMark
Posts: 10465
Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2004 2:14 pm

RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Sat Jan 12, 2008 3:40 pm

Quoting B747forever (Reply 13):
So what does that mean??

It's a joke where you get to select your own punch line.

1. Radioactive fallout.

2. It was Shia snow and any Sunnis that tried it were shot on the spot.

3. Wizard of Oz poppy "snow" blowing in from the east.



[Edited 2008-01-12 07:45:17]
Red tail...Red tail...Red tail...Red tail...Red tail...Red tail...Red tail...Red tail...Damned MSP...Red tail...Red tail
 
RJdxer
Topic Author
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Sat Jan 12, 2008 3:42 pm



Quoting LHStarAlliance (Reply 9):
The global warming won't necessary produce warmth in the Earth , in fact it could make Europe much colder as the Gulf stream could stop existing

 rotfl   rotfl   rotfl   rotfl   rotfl   rotfl   rotfl   rotfl   rotfl   rotfl   rotfl  rotfl  (in his best Steve McQueen voice )Yeah, cold, warm, wet, dry, makes no difference, it's all global warming baby!
Warm winds blowing, heating blue skies, and a road that goes forever. I'm going to Texas!
 
B747forever
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Sat Jan 12, 2008 3:44 pm



Quoting AsstChiefMark (Reply 16):

Yeah, LOL!!! I go for the first option!!
Work Hard, Fly Right
 
cfalk
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Sat Jan 12, 2008 4:35 pm



Quoting LHStarAlliance (Reply 9):
in fact it could make Europe much colder as the Gulf stream could stop existing

Look on the bright side - The skiing should be a lot better  Wink
The only thing you should feel when shooting a terrorist: Recoil.
 
David L
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Sat Jan 12, 2008 4:46 pm



Quoting LHStarAlliance (Reply 9):
The global warming won't necessary produce warmth in the Earth , in fact it could make Europe much colder as the Gulf stream could stop existing

I thought even the Global Warming alarmists were starting to push that one to the back burner.
 
ME AVN FAN
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Sat Jan 12, 2008 5:52 pm



Quoting AsstChiefMark (Reply 4):
It's fallout from the latest Iranian nuclear weapon test.

No, it must be the fallout from the various talkings of Mr Bush in Palestine--Israel  Big grin
 
wingnut767
Posts: 762
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Sat Jan 12, 2008 6:03 pm



Quoting LHStarAlliance (Reply 9):
The global warming won't necessary produce warmth in the Earth , in fact it could make Europe much colder as the Gulf stream could stop existing

The planets on fire  hot   hot  Wait we meant colder  cold   cold  No it means wetter  raincloud   raincloud 

Another great coverall by the Alarmists. It is getting old  old   old 
Yakum purkan min shmaya
 
Nuori5084
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Sun Jan 13, 2008 4:30 am

Just when I thought hell couldn't freeze over...
Failure to plan on your part does not constitute an emergency on my part.
 
wingnut767
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Sun Jan 13, 2008 1:25 pm

From CO2science.org


USHCN Temperature Record of the Week: Georgetown, SC

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
To bolster our claim that "There Has Been Little Net Global Warming Over the Past 70 Years," each week we highlight the temperature record of one of the 1221 U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) stations from 1930-2005.
This issue's temperature record of the week is from Georgetown, SC. During the period of most significant greenhouse gas buildup over the past century, i.e., 1930 and onward, Georgetown's mean annual temperature has cooled by 1.19 degrees Fahrenheit. Not much global warming here!

http://www.co2science.org/scripts/CO...2C/data/ushcn/stationoftheweek.jsp
Yakum purkan min shmaya
 
baroque
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Sun Jan 13, 2008 2:07 pm



Quoting Wingnut767 (Reply 24):
This issue's temperature record of the week is from Georgetown, SC. During the period of most significant greenhouse gas buildup over the past century, i.e., 1930 and onward, Georgetown's mean annual temperature has cooled by 1.19 degrees Fahrenheit. Not much global warming here!

And Germany is currently about 10 degrees C above the usual average for first week in Jan - in other words, so what?
 
wingnut767
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Sun Jan 13, 2008 3:06 pm

Given the number of worldwide cold events, it is no surprise that 2007 didn't turn out to be the warmest ever. In fact, 2007's global temperature was essentially the same as that in 2006 and 2005, and 2004, and every year back to 2001. The record set in 1998 has not been surpassed. For nearly a decade now, there has been no global warming. Even though atmospheric carbon dioxide continues to accumulate. It's up about 4 percent since 1998 the global mean temperature has remained flat. That raises some obvious questions about the theory that CO2 is the cause of climate change.
Yakum purkan min shmaya
 
wingnut767
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Sun Jan 13, 2008 3:16 pm



Quoting Baroque (Reply 25):
Quoting Wingnut767 (Reply 24):
This issue's temperature record of the week is from Georgetown, SC. During the period of most significant greenhouse gas buildup over the past century, i.e., 1930 and onward, Georgetown's mean annual temperature has cooled by 1.19 degrees Fahrenheit. Not much global warming here!


And Germany is currently about 10 degrees C above the usual average for first week in Jan - in other words, so what?

Well seeing how the data I presented shows a 75 year trend and your shows a one month I would take the century trend. And though it is repeatadly being told that the planet is still warming that has been shown to be false the last 7 or 8 years.
The only warming trends in the US over the last 75 years continue to be in urban areas. Small towns all around the country have had continued cooling or no change in the last 100 years.
Yakum purkan min shmaya
 
wingnut767
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Joined: Wed Nov 22, 2006 7:50 am

RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Sun Jan 13, 2008 3:20 pm



Quoting Baroque (Reply 25):
And Germany is currently about 10 degrees C above the usual average for first week in Jan - in other words, so what?

Medieval Warm Period Record of the Week
This issue's Medieval Warm Period Record of the Week comes from Spannagel Cave, Central Alps, Austria.

Spannagel Cave, Central Alps, Austria
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Reference
Mangini, A., Verdes, P., Spotl, C., Scholz, D., Vollweiler, N. and Kromer, B. 2007. Persistent influence of the North Atlantic hydrography on central European winter temperature during the last 9000 years. Description
Based on an analysis of δ18O data obtained from three stalagmites (SPA 12, SPA 128, SPA 70) found within Austria's Spannagel Cave (47.09°N, 11.67°E), Mangini et al. (2007) developed what they demonstrated to be a regional δ18O history covering the last 9000 years; and applying the calibration curve derived for SPA 12 by Manginni et al. (2005) to the new δ18O curve, it can readily be determined that the peak temperature of the Medieval Warm Period (AD 800-1300) was approximately 1.5°C higher than the peak temperature of the Current Warm Period.

http://www.co2science.org/scripts/CO...data/mwp/studies/l1_spannagel2.jsp

Looks like it was warm in Europe before SUV's
Yakum purkan min shmaya
 
RJdxer
Topic Author
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Sun Jan 13, 2008 7:15 pm



Quoting Baroque (Reply 25):
And Germany is currently about 10 degrees C above the usual average for first week in Jan - in other words, so what?

It goes to show that we do not have enough data to forecast anything on a global scale.

Quoting Wingnut767 (Reply 26):
it is no surprise that 2007 didn't turn out to be the warmest ever. In fact, 2007's global temperature was essentially the same as that in 2006 and 2005, and 2004, and every year back to 2001.

Global warming is not set to truly begin until 2009.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php...0809225722.demeczc1&show_article=1


"But global warming will begin in earnest in 2009, and a couple of the years between 2009 and 2014 will eclipse 1998, the warmest year on record to date, in the heat stakes, British meteorologists said."
Warm winds blowing, heating blue skies, and a road that goes forever. I'm going to Texas!
 
andessmf
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Sun Jan 13, 2008 9:37 pm



Quoting RJdxer (Reply 29):
It goes to show that we do not have enough data to forecast anything on a global scale.

We could not even get the last two hurricane seasons correct.

Quoting RJdxer (Reply 29):
Global warming is not set to truly begin until 2009.

And in 2009, there will be a story how it will begin by 2012, and by 2012 there will be a story how it will begin by 2015, etc. And the same person who keeps incorrectly predicting the change, will be quoted again and again, with nary a mention of their past predictions.
 
Yellowstone
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Sun Jan 13, 2008 10:38 pm



Quoting Wingnut767 (Reply 28):
Looks like it was warm in Europe before SUV's

Yes, it was. Now it's getting warmer again. But in addition to the natural warming, we're pumping lots of CO2 into the atmosphere. So it'll get warmer than it would otherwise.

Quoting Wingnut767 (Reply 27):
I would take the century trend.

A century trend in one specific location counters the scientific consensus on data from all over the world?

Quoting Wingnut767 (Reply 27):
The only warming trends in the US over the last 75 years continue to be in urban areas.

Two points there. First, even if your claim is accurate (which I doubt) the world is a lot bigger than just the US. The Arctic ice cap is receding, and is predicted to disappear entirely in the summer by about 2050. Unless Santa's got some big city for his elves up there, I'm not sure what urban area you would propose is warming that area. Second, climatologists aren't stupid. They have heard of the Urban Heat Island Effect, you know. And they account for it in their models. And the models still predict warming.

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 30):
We could not even get the last two hurricane seasons correct.

Hurricane season forecasts are about weather - short-term meteorological phenomena. They're not too good at that yet. Global warming is a climatological question about long-term trends. The two are related only in that global warming is expected to affect weather patterns, though exactly what the results will be is still uncertain.

Quoting Wingnut767 (Reply 22):
The planets on fire hot hot Wait we meant colder cold cold No it means wetter raincloud raincloud

If you'd been paying attention, you'd know that while there is general agreement that the overall average temperature of the planet is increasing, that increase will manifest itself locally in different ways depending on the interplay of the many forces that drive weather patterns.
Hydrogen is an odorless, colorless gas which, given enough time, turns into people.
 
RJdxer
Topic Author
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Mon Jan 14, 2008 12:42 am



Quoting Yellowstone (Reply 31):
First, even if your claim is accurate (which I doubt) the world is a lot bigger than just the US. The Arctic ice cap is receding, and is predicted to disappear entirely in the summer by about 2050.

Meanwhile, at the other end of the earth.

http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/topstory/20020820southseaice.html

"While recent studies have shown that on the whole Arctic sea ice has decreased since the late 1970s, satellite records of sea ice around Antarctica reveal an overall increase in the southern hemisphere ice over the same period. "

Quoting Yellowstone (Reply 31):
And they account for it in their models. And the models still predict warming.

And models are just that models. Completely capable of error.

Quoting Yellowstone (Reply 31):
Hurricane season forecasts are about weather - short-term meteorological phenomena.

Of course after the 2005 Hurricane season all we heard were dire warnings that this was the start of global warming induced super storms and that every huricane season from now on would be just as bad or worse. Of course right after the 2006 season we told to just wait a year, and after this season, a deafening silence has been heard from the same crowd.
Warm winds blowing, heating blue skies, and a road that goes forever. I'm going to Texas!
 
Klaus
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Mon Jan 14, 2008 2:35 am



Quoting RJdxer (Reply 32):
"While recent studies have shown that on the whole Arctic sea ice has decreased since the late 1970s, satellite records of sea ice around Antarctica reveal an overall increase in the southern hemisphere ice over the same period. "

Antarctica is normally far below the freezing point; So as long as it stays just barely cold enough to keep new snow from melting, a mass increase is in fact possible, even though Antarctica was warming up.

And such a mass increase would primarily depend on the amount of water in the air that's sinking down over the south pole as long as it's still barely below freezing. Normally that air is very dry, so an increase is easily possible - especially due to warming of the oceans in the warmer climate zones.

Unfortunately at the same time, the shelf ice keeps breaking up and receding, which can lead to the remaining inland ice accelerating down to the shores after losing the support holding it in place. There are indications that that is in fact already happening. And if this should turn out to be an ongoing and/or accelerating trend, it will outgrow any mass increase through new snow, if it hasn't already done that.

Quoting RJdxer (Reply 32):
And models are just that models. Completely capable of error.

Sure. But every halfway debatable model comes with a statistical probability analysis. If that analysis shows a high probability, the model can generally be accepted as a sound basis for action. Such as the models about mechanics, aerodynamics, combustion dynamics, electromagnetism and many more which provide a sound basis for an aviation industry which you can entrust your life to - and you apparently do.
 
wingnut767
Posts: 762
Joined: Wed Nov 22, 2006 7:50 am

RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Mon Jan 14, 2008 2:43 am



Quoting Yellowstone (Reply 31):
So it'll get warmer than it would otherwise.

Care to prove that one. Any studies to link

Quoting Yellowstone (Reply 31):
Quoting Wingnut767 (Reply 27):
I would take the century trend.

A century trend in one specific location counters the scientific consensus on data from all over the world?

That is not just one specific location. If you would pay attention and actually went ot the source site you would see the temp of the week for the last few years. Town after town across the US that has experienced cooling in the last 75 years

Quoting Yellowstone (Reply 31):
If you'd been paying attention, you'd know that while there is general agreement that the overall average temperature of the planet is increasing, that increase will manifest itself locally in different ways depending on the interplay of the many forces that drive weather patterns.

Actually if you paid attention you would see that the planet has not warmed anymore since 1998. Your general agreement would be amongst the IPCC and green party members on A.net

Quoting Yellowstone (Reply 31):
They have heard of the Urban Heat Island Effect, you know. And they account for it in their models. And the models still predict warming.

The models are only as good as the data that goes into it. If you want warming then you make the data set what you would like. See Manns Hockeystick graph for reference.

Quoting RJdxer (Reply 32):
Of course after the 2005 Hurricane season all we heard were dire warnings that this was the start of global warming induced super storms and that every huricane season from now on would be just as bad or worse. Of course right after the 2006 season we told to just wait a year, and after this season, a deafening silence has been heard from the same crowd.

 checkmark 
Yakum purkan min shmaya
 
RJdxer
Topic Author
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Mon Jan 14, 2008 2:49 am



Quoting Klaus (Reply 33):
There are indications that that is in fact already happening. And if this should turn out to be an ongoing and/or accelerating trend, it will outgrow any mass increase through new snow, if it hasn't already done that.

What Gooddard Space Lab presented was documented fact. What you are presenting is, once again, supposition with no fact to back it up.

Quoting Klaus (Reply 33):
But every halfway debatable model comes with a statistical probability analysis.

The difference being that the probability in aviation can be easily checked. Either the plane flies or it doesn't. Global warming models can in no way take into account all the possible variables that could effect the earths climate.
Warm winds blowing, heating blue skies, and a road that goes forever. I'm going to Texas!
 
graphic
Posts: 1293
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Mon Jan 14, 2008 2:58 am

(In his best Billy Joel voice) We didn't start the fire... (In his best Assef Mandvi voice) Though I believe we actually did start this one...
Demand Media fails at life
 
AirframeAS
Posts: 9811
Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2004 3:56 pm

RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Mon Jan 14, 2008 3:16 am

Quoting Fiatstilojtd (Reply 10):
How long will it take until we have the first conspiracy theory regarding snow in Iraq and Chemtrails ?

I'm counting the days until Blackbird comes in with her tinfoil hat on this thread!

Edit add: My bad....she is banned... Oops! So I guess I will just have to wait awhile. LOL!

[Edited 2008-01-13 19:27:26]
A Safe Flight Begins With Quality Maintenance On The Ground.
 
Yellowstone
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Mon Jan 14, 2008 3:17 am



Quoting Wingnut767 (Reply 34):
If you want warming then you make the data set what you would like.

And turning that right back around at you, if you don't want warming, how do I know that you didn't make the data set what you would like? Your belief in this massive conspiracy on the part of the scientific establishment to lie and misrepresent their findings is reaching Blackbirdian proportions.

Quoting RJdxer (Reply 32):
"While recent studies have shown that on the whole Arctic sea ice has decreased since the late 1970s, satellite records of sea ice around Antarctica reveal an overall increase in the southern hemisphere ice over the same period. "

Which is completely consistent with scientific predictions that global warming will have a greater impact on the Northern Hemisphere. The Southern Hemisphere has more water than the Northern, and oceans are more resistant to temperature changes than land masses. Plus there's a current flowing around Antarctica that blocks warmer water from getting too close to the continent. Plus there's Klaus's point that ice mass can grow despite warming; in fact, the colder it is, the less precipitation there is (simple physical fact that cold air holds less moisture than warm air). Plus there's the fact that local observations do not inherently imply global consequences; you need to look at the balance of the evidence, from all over the globe.

Quoting Wingnut767 (Reply 34):
Actually if you paid attention you would see that the planet has not warmed anymore since 1998.

If you overlay a general warming trend over a brief natural cool-down, you'll wind up with a leveling off of temperatures. Climate scientists don't expect this to continue for very long.

Quoting Wingnut767 (Reply 34):
Your general agreement would be amongst the IPCC and green party members on A.net

And, oh, let's see... climate scientists! You know, the ones who actually have training in this area and know what they're talking about!

Quoting RJdxer (Reply 32):
And models are just that models. Completely capable of error.

Of course they are. That doesn't mean you can't make judgments based on them. You do the best you can with the data you have, and you keep improving the model as the data comes in.

Quoting RJdxer (Reply 32):
Of course after the 2005 Hurricane season all we heard were dire warnings that this was the start of global warming induced super storms and that every huricane season from now on would be just as bad or worse. Of course right after the 2006 season we told to just wait a year, and after this season, a deafening silence has been heard from the same crowd.

There are unfortunately a number of people who believe in global warming but don't understand the science behind it. Global warming, it is believed, will lead to an overall increase in the number and strength of storms. That does not mean, as some seem to think, that we can predict exactly how many more storms will occur, or that there will always be more storms, or that the 2005 hurricane season's abundance of storms is directly attributable to global warming. We're not going to have a good sense of that until after the fact, but we'd really like to do what we can to keep it from getting there in the first place.
Hydrogen is an odorless, colorless gas which, given enough time, turns into people.
 
Klaus
Posts: 20578
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Mon Jan 14, 2008 3:34 am



Quoting RJdxer (Reply 35):
What Gooddard Space Lab presented was documented fact.

No scientist will (or can!) ever present "fact". Scientific research is always a matter of documented evidence, theoretical conclusions and validation (including statistical analysis where applicable). What you've linked to is a simplified abstract of the actual research.

The problem is that strongly reduced information such as that one often turns up in popular misconceptions or fallacies thereafter.

Quoting RJdxer (Reply 35):
What you are presenting is, once again, supposition with no fact to back it up.

I have explained some of the the mechanisms at work in Antarctica, which puts general statements into perspective.

But the page you linked to covers a different effect than the one I was referring to (which had been reported earlier). It speaks of the length of the sea ice season increasing in most of the Antarctic sea (in some parts it is shrinking).

Sea ice thus appears to last longer during the year; Sea water freezing over is not the same thing, however, as shelf ice which is ice flowing down from inland glaciers. Sea levels are not affected by sea ice; They only depend on the inland ice reaching the shelf and beginning to displace sea water. So while there are interconnections, the page you've linked to doesn't make any statement to the inland ice.

But other pages on the site do:

NASA: SCIENTISTS REPORT INCREASED THINNING OF WEST ANTARCTIC GLACIERS

Quote:
Glaciers in West Antarctica are shrinking at a rate substantially higher than observed in the 1990s. They are losing 60 percent more ice into the Amundsen Sea than they accumulate from inland snowfall.

[...]

Bob Thomas, a science team member with EG&G Services at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's Wallops Flight Facility, Wallops Island, Va., commented that as the glaciers flow to the ocean, they become afloat to form ice shelves. "The ice shelves act like a cork and slow down the flow of the glacier," Thomas said.

"Ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea appear to be thinning, offering less resistance to their tributary glaciers. Our measurements show an increase in glacier thinning rates that affects not only the mouth of the glacier, but also 60 miles (100 kilometers) to 190 miles (300 kilometers) inland," Thomas said.

NASA: GLACIERS SURGE WHEN ICE SHELF BREAKS UP

Quote:
Since 2002, when the Larsen B ice shelf broke away from the coast of the Antarctic Peninsula, scientists have witnessed profound increases in the flow of nearby glaciers into the Weddell Sea. These observations were made possible through NASA, Canadian and European satellite data.

Two NASA-funded reports, appearing in the Geophysical Research Letters journal, used different techniques to arrive at similar results. Researchers from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), Pasadena, Calif., NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, Md., and the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), Boulder, Colo., said the findings prove ice shelves act as "brakes" on the glaciers that flow into them. The results also suggest climate warming can rapidly lead to rises in sea level.

Large ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula disintegrated in 1995 and 2002, as a result of climate warming. Almost immediately after the 2002 Larsen B ice shelf collapse, researchers observed nearby glaciers flowing up to eight times faster than prior to the breakup. The speed-up also caused glacier elevations to drop, lowering them by as much as 38 meters (124 feet) in six months.

[...]

The surfaces of glaciers dropped rapidly as the flow sped up, according to ICESat measurements. "The thinning of these glaciers was so dramatic that it was easily detected with ICESat, which can measure elevation changes to within an inch or two," said Christopher Shuman, a GSFC researcher and a co-author on the Scambos paper.

[...]

According to Rignot's study, the Hektoria, Green and Evans glaciers flowed eight times faster in 2003 than in 2000. They slowed moderately in late 2003. The Jorum and Crane glaciers accelerated two-fold in early 2003 and three-fold by the end of 2003. Adjacent glaciers, where the shelves remained intact, showed no significant changes according to both studies. The studies provide clear evidence ice shelves restrain glaciers, and indicate present climate is more closely linked to sea level rise than once thought, Scambos added.



Quoting RJdxer (Reply 35):
The difference being that the probability in aviation can be easily checked. Either the plane flies or it doesn't.

Uh, no. It isn't even remotely that simple.

Aeronautical engineering builds on thousands of models and theories; And the standard safety margin of 10^-9 (one to one billion) which is demanded for commercial aviation in the end is the result of complex combinations of dependent and independent probabilities from all the technologies used, based on the respective models and theories about those technologies.

Some of those models and theories are rather esoteric, actually. The difference to the increasingly well-understood climate models which work on many of the same principles is much smaller than you think.

Quoting RJdxer (Reply 35):
Global warming models can in no way take into account all the possible variables that could effect the earths climate.

Of course they can. Just like aerodynamics can't possibly take into account explicitly every possible combination of air, water and other molecules interacting to keep the airplane flying (or not), both aerodynamics and climate research (which also uses aerodynamics as a constituent component, by the way) use well-understood aggregation methodologies and meta-models to find reliable conclusions for the statistical behaviour of highly complex dynamic systems.

Is climatology as reliable yet? Not in general, no. But the principles are closely related and the difference is merely a gradual one, not a fundamental one - and the gap between them is shrinking, not growing.
 
RJdxer
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Mon Jan 14, 2008 6:31 am



Quoting Klaus (Reply 39):
No scientist will (or can!) ever present "fact".

The facts are there, but as we have discussed before, the dogma of global warming will not allow for any opposing ideas or facts, it cannot stand them.

Quoting Klaus (Reply 39):
The problem is that strongly reduced information such as that one often turns up in popular misconceptions or fallacies thereafter.

And as we have discussed before, when doubt is cast on the dogma of global warming, the standard action is to immediately insult, impugn, and agitate that somehow the person who is questioning the dogma is just not capable of understanding, as you have repeatedly done in these threads.

Quoting Klaus (Reply 39):
I have explained some of the the mechanisms at work in Antarctica,

No, you've offered up some theories that have yet to be verified. The Goddard piece even relates to how the sea ice fluctuation maybe be more influenced by as yet understood atmospheric oscillations rather than strictly by warming.

Quoting Klaus (Reply 39):
Uh, no. It isn't even remotely that simple.

Uh, yes it is. Detailed records have been kept since the Wright Brothers, which is far more than has been kept about the atmosphere for even the same period.

Quoting Klaus (Reply 39):
Of course they can

Of course they can't. Most meteorologists won't put any stock in a forecast looking more than 72 hours into the future, on a completely local scale. Yet somehow someone is going to magically produce a global forecast that predicts years into the future. Sure. I'll wait till 2009, of course we all know that's when global warming is really going to kick in!
Warm winds blowing, heating blue skies, and a road that goes forever. I'm going to Texas!
 
wingnut767
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Mon Jan 14, 2008 2:18 pm



Quoting Yellowstone (Reply 38):
If you overlay a general warming trend over a brief natural cool-down, you'll wind up with a leveling off of temperatures. Climate scientists don't expect this to continue for very long.

Which climate scientists? can you name 10, 20? How many are on the IPCC's cast of thousands?

Quoting Yellowstone (Reply 38):
And, oh, let's see... climate scientists! You know, the ones who actually have training in this area and know what they're talking about!

Ditto Which climate scientists? can you name 10, 20? How many are on the IPCC's cast of thousands?

Quoting RJdxer (Reply 40):
Quoting Klaus (Reply 39):
The problem is that strongly reduced information such as that one often turns up in popular misconceptions or fallacies thereafter.

And as we have discussed before, when doubt is cast on the dogma of global warming, the standard action is to immediately insult, impugn, and agitate that somehow the person who is questioning the dogma is just not capable of understanding, as you have repeatedly done in these threads.

They also think that if the fossil fuel companies pay you have an agenda. So if Greenpeace, Sierra Club or governments pay there is no agenda and only truth and enlightenment?

Personal attacks are the norm on the Global Warming threads. You can only consider them from what they imply. They usually indicate a person or group is losing the debate. In this case, they also indicate how political the entire Global Warming debate has become. Both underline the lack of or even contradictory nature of the Alarmist science.


As Dr Lindzen said

"The consensus was reached before the research had even begun." Now, any scientist who dares to question the prevailing wisdom is marginalized and called a sceptic, when in fact they are simply being good scientists. This has reached frightening levels with these scientists now being called climate change denier with all the holocaust connotations of that word. The normal scientific method is effectively being thwarted.
Yakum purkan min shmaya
 
baroque
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Mon Jan 14, 2008 2:24 pm



Quoting Wingnut767 (Reply 41):
They also think that if the fossil fuel companies pay you have an agenda. So if Greenpeace, Sierra Club or governments pay there is no agenda and only truth and enlightenment?

Oi, I work for fossil fuel companies. We hardly need to propagandise, the profligate US consumption of fossil fuels makes propaganda on their behalf totally unnecessary.  Wow!
 
Klaus
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Mon Jan 14, 2008 11:07 pm



Quoting RJdxer (Reply 40):
The facts are there, but as we have discussed before, the dogma of global warming will not allow for any opposing ideas or facts, it cannot stand them.

The "facts" turn up in any scientific context only in form of observations. Which need to be taken with caution and perspective. The quasi-religious absolute certainty you're looking for does not exist in science.

Quoting RJdxer (Reply 40):
And as we have discussed before, when doubt is cast on the dogma of global warming, the standard action is to immediately insult, impugn, and agitate that somehow the person who is questioning the dogma is just not capable of understanding, as you have repeatedly done in these threads.

You have demonstrated that you are misunderstanding various fundamental issues about science. I am sorry if it hurts your feelings when I point that out, but that is not the objective. Corrections are simply necessary where conclusions are drawn which are not justified on the presented basis.

Quoting RJdxer (Reply 40):
No, you've offered up some theories that have yet to be verified. The Goddard piece even relates to how the sea ice fluctuation maybe be more influenced by as yet understood atmospheric oscillations rather than strictly by warming.

Yes, that possibility looks plausible - when in some places temperatures appear to be falling in a global environment of rising temperatures. Which is what this conclusion is based on.

Quoting RJdxer (Reply 40):
Uh, yes it is. Detailed records have been kept since the Wright Brothers, which is far more than has been kept about the atmosphere for even the same period.

Modern commercial aviation is an engineering discipline which is nevertheless heavily based on scientific methods, models and theories. No commercial airliner will get its certification without a thorough scientific analysis of its safety. Nobody will certify any critical component which cannot be validated scientifically, no matter if the Wrights should have believed it would fly (and they made quite a few incorrect assumptions).

Climate science has nothing to do with engineering. It is an analytical science. It also has access to the physical climate records which go back thousands and even millions of years (to varying degrees of accuracy) which by far exceeds the historical records about human aviation.

Quoting RJdxer (Reply 40):
Of course they can't. Most meteorologists won't put any stock in a forecast looking more than 72 hours into the future, on a completely local scale. Yet somehow someone is going to magically produce a global forecast that predicts years into the future. Sure. I'll wait till 2009, of course we all know that's when global warming is really going to kick in!

The theoretical work about global climate change is not making predictions about a shower in some specific place at a specific time. It makes predictions about progressive long-term shifts of the global mean temperatures (to mention just one parameter). At that much lower resolution it is not easy but still possible to make model-based extrapolations.
 
andessmf
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Mon Jan 14, 2008 11:36 pm



Quoting Klaus (Reply 43):
The quasi-religious absolute certainty you're looking for does not exist in science.

YES it does. You can find it easily when you have your eyes wide open. It is a fallacy to think that certain scientific theories follow the same methods as religion, and these theories are defended with the same fervor as some religious theories.

All you have to do is LISTEN and note that when a scientists tells you that you 'better stop sinning (using fossil fuel) or else you would go to hell (the planet will be destroyed)' is in the same vein as many religious nuts.

It doesn't take much to realize that some have taken science as a direct replacement for religion.
 
Klaus
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Mon Jan 14, 2008 11:46 pm



Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 44):
It doesn't take much to realize that some have taken science as a direct replacement for religion.

Well, the former can be questioned and verified right down to the basic axioms and observations which can all be overturned when verifiable evidence requires it. The latter starts at a belief and does not allow any kind of verification nor does it require or provide consistency.

Given that science has been wildly successful in building our modern civilization and providing increasingly reliable and load-bearing information, I'll continue to stick with science when it's about anything related to the physical world.

If one never bothers to dig deeper into the scientific method and into the scientific background of the individual statements and conclusions, one might believe that those were just arbitrary claims. But the difference isn't apparent on the face of it.

The fundamental criterion is consistency with the entire state of scientific research, not superficial plausibility.
 
andessmf
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Tue Jan 15, 2008 12:34 am



Quoting Klaus (Reply 45):
Well, the former can be questioned and verified right down to the basic axioms and observations which can all be overturned when verifiable evidence requires it.

Indeed many previously solid scientific theories have been overturned by new data and evidence. What is fallacy is that noting how scientific history has occurred, assuming that now (not just global warming) they have it right.

Since it is well established fact that the earth has warmed and cooled (google 'Little Ice Age' and 'Medieval Warm Period'), it follows that it could certainly be warming right now; it could be part of a natural cycle, or it could be human caused. Any scientist can certainly show data that proves their own theory, but to assume that now we have it right is nothing but a slap in the face to those true pioneers who went against group think of prior theories that were eventually proven wrong.

And to defend the theory with 'doomsday' speak is nothing more than complete religious zeal talk. When religious nuts and global warming doomsayers use the exact same language, both can certainly be classified as 'religious nuts'.
 
RJdxer
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Tue Jan 15, 2008 12:53 am



Quoting Klaus (Reply 43):
The "facts" turn up in any scientific context only in form of observations.

The pictures show more ice. It's pretty black and white. An argument can be based on why there is more or less sea ice, or pack ice, in a given location(s) but that does not change the basic fact that there is more ice in certain locations. You can call it an observation if you wish but in this case, the observation is still a fact

Quoting Klaus (Reply 43):
Which need to be taken with caution and perspective.

Anything that conflicts with the dogma of global warming must, by virtue of the belief, be at first taken with caution and perspective until the right thinking argument dismissing, or showing how it dovetails with existing global warming dogma, can be found. You attempted, poorly, to do this above but the main article disputes what you are trying to promote by virtue of the atmospheric oscillation theory which does not match up to any known global warming dogma.

Quoting Klaus (Reply 43):
You have demonstrated that you are misunderstanding various fundamental issues about science. I am sorry if it hurts your feelings when I point that out, but that is not the objective

You have demonstrated, over and over, that any science, observation, or trend that does not match up with approved global warming dogma need to be instantly ridiculed and quashed. You can continue to use the biggest words to describe the simplest things if you wish but it doesn't change the fact that you are a devout disciple of the global warming dogma and as such, any evidence that might point to the contrary, you will dismiss without a second thought as either bad science or just plain hearsay, or in this case should we refer to it as heresy?

Quoting Klaus (Reply 43):
At that much lower resolution it is not easy but still possible to make model-based extrapolations.

In this case it is still a forecast of things to come. You can change the word but in this case the words are synonymous with each other.

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 44):
YES it does. You can find it easily when you have your eyes wide open.

Agreed, but their eyes are no longer wide open nor can they afford to be.

Quoting Klaus (Reply 45):
Well, the former can be questioned and verified right down to the basic axioms and observations which can all be overturned when verifiable evidence requires it.

The problem with those, like you, that subscribe to the global warming dogma is that there is no science that you will consider verifiable. It goes back to rule number one, anything that casts doubt on global warming must be, has to be, instantly impugned, insulted, and agitated against. Why else would big Al cry out "The debate is over!"?

Quoting Klaus (Reply 45):
Given that science has been wildly successful in building our modern civilization and providing increasingly reliable and load-bearing information, I'll continue to stick with science when it's about anything related to the physical world.

Yes, we wouldn't want to mention all the times that science has been completely wrong.

Quoting Klaus (Reply 45):
If one never bothers to dig deeper into the scientific method and into the scientific background of the individual statements and conclusions, one might believe that those were just arbitrary claims. But the difference isn't apparent on the face of it.

The fundamental criterion is consistency with the entire state of scientific research, not superficial plausibility.

And if that method or person does not agree with the dogma, the method is to be impugned, the person insulted, and the claim agitated against as vigorously as possible. Rule number 1 which you demonstrate here on a regular basis.

If you wish to be a student of the dogma there's nothing wrong with that. I accept that you are without precondition or prejudice. The problem is when you constantly come out and try to abuse stories and evidence that refute the fact yet refuse to agree that your vision is completely colored by global warming dogma. We all agree that the earth is getting warmer, it has been since the last ice age. The difference is at what rate and why. Those of us with our eyes open see the science that disputes it's all mans fault and if we just impose huge sanctions on the world we can slow or even stop the inevitable". You know, the science that you regularly put down without a second thought. We can also see the humor in the prediciton that hot, cold, wet, dry, it's all global warming. What we don't see as humorous is the assertion that huge economic penalties should be imposed on a large part of the worlds advanced civilizations based on what has yet to be proven beyond reason, that man is largely responsible for global warming or that the warming will somehow wipe out the species. So continue to rant and pump out the big words my friend, but just be aware that there are many out there that just don't scare easy and when stories of snow in Baghdad come out, and dire predictions of hurricane seasons prove untrue, the whole global warming dogma crowd takes a hit in a lot of eyes.
Warm winds blowing, heating blue skies, and a road that goes forever. I'm going to Texas!
 
AverageUser
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Tue Jan 15, 2008 1:07 am

It's mid-January in southern Finland, and my meter shows +4.1 C at 0300 hours. There's positively no snow. When I look at the weather maps, the usual very cold (-30 to -40 C) high pressure air mass that normally should lie to east of us in northern Russia in winter, has receded to who knows where. It's that abnormality that I think is being reflected in Iraq now. To me the North Atlantic is acting up, and the trouble there then will emanate through most of the Eurasian continent.
 
AverageUser
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RE: First Snow In Baghdad In 100 Years

Tue Jan 15, 2008 2:19 am

Here's what I mean ( http://www.ecmwf.int/ )


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