N1120A
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Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 2:59 am

Its official, and this includes super delegates. Without them, he is leading by about 100.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=D
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fxramper
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 3:04 am



Go Obama?



Odds when Hillary will drop out?

 
N1120A
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 3:08 am



Quoting FXramper (Reply 1):

Odds when Hillary will drop out?

This is going to the convention floor if Obama doesn't win it outright during the primaries.
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Msl747
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 3:11 am



Quoting N1120A (Reply 2):
This is going to the convention floor if Obama doesn't win it outright during the primaries.

If she can't pull off Texas and Ohio, the odds aren't looking good...
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fxramper
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 3:12 am



Quoting N1120A (Reply 2):
doesn't win it outright during the primaries.

$5 says he takes Texas on 4 March.
 
n521na
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 3:15 am

And that lead is going to keep growing as more delegates are counted from today's results.
 
A332
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 3:18 am

I figure Obama will win it in the primaries.... and he also has the best shot at winning the presidency out of the two.
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N1120A
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 3:18 am



Quoting Msl747 (Reply 3):

If she can't pull off Texas and Ohio, the odds aren't looking good...

Anyone know how they are polling right now?
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N1120A
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 3:19 am



Quoting A332 (Reply 6):


I figure Obama will win it in the primaries.... and he also has the best shot at winning the presidency out of the two.

He is consistently beating McCain in the head to head polls.
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Msl747
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 3:21 am



Quoting N1120A (Reply 7):
Anyone know how they are polling right now?

They only ones I can find are from December and show Clinton with a good lead, but I would imagine that the gap has narrowed significantly since then...
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n521na
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 3:22 am

Quoting N1120A (Reply 7):
Anyone know how they are polling right now?

Clinton is ahead by 17% in the most recent poll. I suspect that lead will drop as more campaigning is done in the state as has generally been the case.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...h/ohio_democratic_primary-263.html

Edit: To clarify, Im talking about Ohio. Texas polling has not been done yet.

[Edited 2008-02-12 19:26:01]
 
N1120A
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 3:33 am



Quoting N521NA (Reply 10):
Clinton is ahead by 17% in the most recent poll.

Interesting. I wonder how PA looks.

Quoting N521NA (Reply 10):
Texas polling has not been done yet.

Yeah, and I am surprised at that.

Quoting Msl747 (Reply 9):
but I would imagine that the gap has narrowed significantly since then...

That has been the general trend.
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fxramper
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 3:36 am

Quoting A332 (Reply 6):
he also has the best shot at winning the presidency out of the two.

Agreed.

Quoting N1120A (Reply 8):
He is consistently beating McCain in the head to head polls.

Source please? Neither even have a VP...

[Edited 2008-02-12 19:37:10]
 
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 3:38 am



Quoting FXramper (Reply 12):

Source please? Neither even have a VP...

Check out RealClearPolitics, as linked above.
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LTU932
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 3:43 am

It is increasingly looking back for HRC. Just this weekend Obama swept, and now during the Potomac primaries Obama swept. Despite losing Cali, which is no doubt one of the most important states to win in terms of delegates and superdelegates that can be obtained, Obama is having more and more momentum going. The only other remaining question is who will be his or her running mate. Maybe it's not the time to make a decision, but it would be good to know who has a chance of becoming VPOTUS nominee for November.

Even with the current close result, IMO November will be a decision between Obama and McCain.
 
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 3:49 am

 
N1120A
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 3:56 am



Quoting LTU932 (Reply 14):
Despite losing Cali

Colombia had a vote?  Wink Clinton did herself a favor by bagging California, New York and New Jersey, but Obama's success in the sheer number of states won combined with still respectable delegate showings in the states he lost have helped build him up.
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ltbewr
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 4:00 am

In the 3 primary states tonight, Obama seems to be doing better than Clinton with many voting groups, including Hispanics and women who Clinton had expected to win with. Obama is getting an overwhelming amount of the Black vote. But I think what is really getting Obama his numbers is getting much higher numbers than usual to go to the primary elections and caucuses, especially from younger voters (under 30's) and Black voters. I would also suggest that Obama's message of the future, cooperation, hope and we is doing a lot better than the past (the 90's), a top down fight, wish and I of Clinton.

It may come down to Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania as the only chance for Clinton, but even then, the proportional allocation of electors in the Democratic primaries and caucuses may not give her enough votes to win the nomination without the Superdelegates. It is also possible for Obama to get enough regular delegates to win before the convention. As a student of Political Science, I am in heaven with this year's primary process.
 
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 4:56 am



Quoting N1120A (Reply 8):
He is consistently beating McCain in the head to head polls.

Those Realclearpolitics polls you referenced are still very close, and McCain leads in one - add the margin of error to most and they become undetermined - nobody is winning just yet.




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n521na
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 5:12 am



Quoting NWA742 (Reply 18):

Those Realclearpolitics polls you referenced are still very close, and McCain leads in one - add the margin of error to most and they become undetermined - nobody is winning just yet.

That's true, but it can't just be chance that Clinton consistently does worse against McCain than Obama.
 
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 5:14 am



Quoting N521NA (Reply 19):
That's true, but it can't just be chance that Clinton consistently does worse against McCain than Obama.

Correct, seeing as how Obama is currently giving Bilary a huge run for his and her money.




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fxramper
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 5:17 am

I read a lot of articles, not just the realclearpolitics, and apparently McCain and Clinton have a very close relationship and as a matter of fact, McCain is pretty tight with Obama too. McCain would beat Clinton with ease - the other race would be very close.

 twocents 
 
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 5:34 am



Quoting FXramper (Reply 21):
McCain would beat Clinton with ease - the other race would be very close.

Completely agree. The Republicans were smart to pick McCain early. He's the best they have.

Remember in 2000, McCain had skin cancer. People thought he would live thru 1 term in office. Today, he looks great 8 years later. Amazing. He is 71 but acts 41.
 
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 5:39 am



Quoting FXramper (Reply 21):
McCain would beat Clinton with ease - the other race would be very close.

I tend to agree. Right now I'm just pulling for Hilabit...HILARY, the human wasteland that she and her prick of a husband are, to have their campaign implode.




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N1120A
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 7:46 am



Quoting FXramper (Reply 21):
I read a lot of articles, not just the realclearpolitics, and apparently McCain and Clinton have a very close relationship and as a matter of fact, McCain is pretty tight with Obama too.

All three of them tend to be willing to work with others and have formed good relationships. Hillary's best friend in the Senate is probably Sam Brownback, another Republican.

Quoting FXramper (Reply 21):
McCain would beat Clinton with ease

I don't agree with you there. Remember how Bill pulled out ahead during his national campaign.
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 8:12 am



Quoting FXramper (Reply 21):
McCain would beat Clinton with ease - the other race would be very close.



Quoting Flighty (Reply 22):
Completely agree. The Republicans were smart to pick McCain early. He's the best they have

where in the world is this bullocks coming from...mccain's delegate representation is not at all proportional to his support within the party.

not to mention both Clinton and Obama are leading McCain in the head to head polls  Yeah sure

ps. funny how everyone is fine with Obama riding 85% of the African American vote, imagine the jesse jackson/al sharpton/oprah backlash if he were only garnering 15% of the white vote~
 
itsonlyme
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 10:45 am

I saw a couple of people on tv doing the math, saying that Clinton would have to win TX and OH with something like 60% of the vote to offset the leads Obama will have by March. Simply bad planning and arrogance on their part. They never expected it to go this long - even after Iowa loudmouths like Terry McAuliffe were saying it would be over by super Tuesday. Obama has had a national organisation with people in every state for months, and it is showing. The margins are huge - and Clinton did compete in Maine and Virginia, yet she got trounced. Bad idea letting him rack up big wins and relying on OH and TX. Sounds kind of like Giuliani betting on Florida.
 
JetBlueGuy2006
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 12:54 pm



Quoting N1120A (Reply 7):
Anyone know how they are polling right now?



Quoting Msl747 (Reply 9):
They only ones I can find are from December and show Clinton with a good lead, but I would imagine that the gap has narrowed significantly since then...



Quoting Msl747 (Reply 9):
They only ones I can find are from December and show Clinton with a good lead, but I would imagine that the gap has narrowed significantly since then...

The polls I saw was Clinton had a good margin.

Quoting LTBEWR (Reply 17):
women who Clinton had expected to win with

If you look at the total results, she was still winning with white women, but not women overall.

I think Clinton will still run the table when it comes to Ohio and Texas. Her base is in those states. Not to mention there are a lot of old school voters who have fond memories of the Clintons.

I would like to throw out there, with Michigan and Florida, Clinton is in the lead comfortably. I worry that if the DNC doesn't include our states, that will have a bad outcome for the Dems in Nov.

The biggest problem I have with Obama is that I don't see any substance. He is a great speaker, but his lack of national political experience is big concern for me.

And this will go all the way to the convention. I think they will seat the MI and FL delegation, making it very close with Clinton having a slight lead. I am worried that the Superdelegates will decide it. However, that is probably a good thing for Clinton because if party leaders follow state results, she will pick up a lot of delegates in NY, NJ, MA, FL and CA
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 2:04 pm



Quoting FXramper (Reply 4):
$5

Wow, are you all in?  rotfl   rotfl   rotfl   rotfl 
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 4:30 pm



Quoting JetBlueGuy2006 (Reply 27):
but his lack of national political experience is big concern for me.

It's his biggest asset IMO. Americans are not in love with national politicians. Not any of them. Not right now. Well, just McCain.

Quoting DeltaOwnsAll (Reply 25):
where in the world is this bullocks coming from...mccain's delegate representation is not at all proportional to his support within the party.

Who cares about his support within the party? When McCain wins the nomination, then the self-styled "conservatives" who are bankrupting us can either support him, or not vote. Personally I hope they don't vote at all.
 
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 5:14 pm



Quoting N1120A (Thread starter):
Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Good, Good, and Good. I really hope he beats out Hillary.
94
 
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 6:35 pm



Quoting JetBlueGuy2006 (Reply 27):

I think Clinton will still run the table when it comes to Ohio and Texas

I think she will probably win those two states no matter what. What will be interesting is by how much, because Obama could still walk away with a significant enough number of delegates to separate himself from Clinton.
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NIKV69
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 7:09 pm

Quoting JetBlueGuy2006 (Reply 27):
I would like to throw out there, with Michigan and Florida, Clinton is in the lead comfortably. I worry that if the DNC doesn't include our states, that will have a bad outcome for the Dems in Nov.

The DNC asked you to hold your Primary a little later, if you had olbliged then MI and FL would be in play. Whether the DNC will approve your petition is a crap shoot. Can open a can of worms. Or you could caucus in April.

Quoting JetBlueGuy2006 (Reply 27):
The biggest problem I have with Obama is that I don't see any substance. He is a great speaker, but his lack of national political experience is big concern for me.

Well most Dems are now hoping the hatred for the GOP and the war now added with Obama's "our time has come" rhetoric will carry them. They also know that Obama is a hell of a lot more likeable than Hillary which is a problem in a general. On the issues Obama will ride his anti war and I can give you free health care as far as he can. Now the educated voter knows he can't even begin to think to do this without heavy taxation so it's going to be interesting to say the least.

Quoting JetBlueGuy2006 (Reply 27):
And this will go all the way to the convention. I think they will seat the MI and FL delegation, making it very close with Clinton having a slight lead. I am worried that the Superdelegates will decide it. However, that is probably a good thing for Clinton because if party leaders follow state results, she will pick up a lot of delegates in NY, NJ, MA, FL and CA

Hard to say, I think if they do seat those delegates they will have a lot of pissed off people. Especially if Hillary wins TX and OH. The DNC is in a touch situation already. Will just have to see how it plays out.

Quoting N1120A (Reply 31):
I think she will probably win those two states no matter what. What will be interesting is by how much, because Obama could still walk away with a significant enough number of delegates to separate himself from Clinton.

Actually you probably have a really close delegaate count when it's convention time. This is going to be decided by superdelegates.

[Edited 2008-02-13 11:11:40]
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N1120A
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 7:17 pm



Quoting NIKV69 (Reply 32):
This is going to be decided by superdelegates.

Yes, that is already apparent. Hillary leads in the SD count by about 100, but it seems that more and more superdelegates are starting to drift toward Obama.
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FriendlySkies
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 7:21 pm



Quoting N1120A (Reply 33):
Hillary leads in the SD count by about 100

Latest numbers on CNN show that lead is down to about 75 (234 to 157)
 
rjpieces
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 7:22 pm



Quoting N1120A (Reply 24):
Hillary's best friend in the Senate is probably Sam Brownback, another Republican.

Source?
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N1120A
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Wed Feb 13, 2008 7:50 pm



Quoting RJpieces (Reply 35):

Source?

I shouldn't have to do your work for you. Try googling it.

Here is a site I otherwise think is ridiculous talking about it.

http://www.faithinpubliclife.org/con...rodigal_party_what_party_of_s.html

Quote:
During one such meeting, Brownback reportedly asked Clinton's forgiveness for having hated her, a confession that helped forge a friendship between the pair of political enemies.

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JetBlueGuy2006
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Thu Feb 14, 2008 12:32 am



Quoting NIKV69 (Reply 32):
The DNC asked you to hold your Primary a little later

I hope you blame that on the governor and legislator. I am pissed that they did that, and I hope that the DNC realizes how big of a blow it could be to the Dem nominee, whoever it is; if they don't seat the delegates.

As a voter in Michigan, I hope the DNC sees that voters had absolutly nothing to do with this, and shouldn't be punished. If anything, maybe take away the Superdelegates votes who supported the idea.
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FriendlySkies
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Thu Feb 14, 2008 12:58 am



Quoting JetBlueGuy2006 (Reply 37):
As a voter in Michigan, I hope the DNC sees that voters had absolutly nothing to do with this, and shouldn't be punished. If anything, maybe take away the Superdelegates votes who supported the idea.

It's not the point. It's unfortunate for the voters that the two states governments wanted more national attention. But, if the DNC allows their delegates to be seated, they will set a precedent, and any state will just hold their primary whenever they feel like it because the DNC will have no power over it anymore.

So, sorry MI and FL, but your votes can't count for the good of the election process. Maybe you should consider electing new state leadership.
 
rjpieces
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Thu Feb 14, 2008 2:35 am



Quoting N1120A (Reply 36):
I shouldn't have to do your work for you.

I shouldn't have to read opinions passed off as fact, but the world isn't perfect.

Quoting N1120A (Reply 36):
Try googling it.

I did. When I saw that what you wrote was misleading and based on one article that simply talked about how they became friends, I asked you for your source.

Quoting N1120A (Reply 36):
Here is a site I otherwise think is ridiculous talking about it.

This really helps your argument here!

Quoting N1120A (Reply 36):
During one such meeting, Brownback reportedly asked Clinton's forgiveness for having hated her, a confession that helped forge a friendship between the pair of political enemies.

Forging a friendship does not equal:

Quoting N1120A (Reply 24):
Hillary's best friend in the Senate is probably Sam Brownback, another Republican.

Most Senators are friends...There are some very wellknown friendships/best friends (such as McCain and Graham, or Lieberman and Collins), but Clinton and Brownback are not one of those...
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tsaord
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Thu Feb 14, 2008 3:04 am

I'm supporting Hillary. If she looses both Texas and Ohio then I do not know what I'm going to do. This was my first time voting ever and now my candidate is loosing. I'm starting to get irritated with her campaign tatics. She isn't even in Wisconsin which has the next primary but Obama is. She is getting too Guillani-ish by taking her campaign in certain states and she has not won one caucus. After March 4th, my 25th bday, if she does not win both Ohio and Texas then she is out. Then I have no candidate to support on the dems side. Aww well....I tried.
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n521na
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Thu Feb 14, 2008 3:08 am



Quoting Tsaord (Reply 40):
she has not won one caucus

She won Nevada.
 
n521na
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Thu Feb 14, 2008 3:11 am



Quoting Tsaord (Reply 40):
Then I have no candidate to support on the dems side. Aww well....I tried.

If Hillary ends up losing, I strongly suggest you take another look at Senator Obama. His ideas are the same as Clinton's with minor differences, and he has been inspiring Americans across the nation which is what I think this country needs. I know I will do the same for Clinton if Obama loses the nomination.
 
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Thu Feb 14, 2008 3:12 am



Quoting FriendlySkies (Reply 38):
So, sorry MI and FL, but your votes can't count for the good of the election process. Maybe you should consider electing new state leadership.

I agree, the votes should not count. But if the DNC decided to count MI and FL, how would that work? Hillary and Dennis Kucinich were the only two candidates on the Democratic ballot in MI. Does Obama just get left out in the cold or does something else happen?
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N1120A
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Thu Feb 14, 2008 3:19 am



Quoting RJpieces (Reply 39):
Clinton and Brownback are not one of those...

One, note that I included the word probably. Second, my other source is someone who worked as a political consultant for the Clintons before we entered law school together.

Quoting N521NA (Reply 41):

She won Nevada.

I believe she lost on delegates, however.
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tsaord
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Thu Feb 14, 2008 3:20 am



Quoting N521NA (Reply 41):
She won Nevada.

Right. I stand corrected.
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tsaord
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Thu Feb 14, 2008 3:22 am



Quoting N521NA (Reply 42):
he has been inspiring Americans across the nation which is what I think this country needs.

He is inspiring and that doesn't show me he can run this country based on some feel good words.
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n521na
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Thu Feb 14, 2008 3:27 am



Quoting Tsaord (Reply 46):
He is inspiring and that doesn't show me he can run this country based on some feel good words.

Well, I hope you change your mind watching the upcoming debates. If you still have the same opinion, I'll respect that.
 
travelin man
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Thu Feb 14, 2008 5:31 am



Quoting Tsaord (Reply 46):
He is inspiring and that doesn't show me he can run this country based on some feel good words.

And Hillary Clinton can because she was First Lady? I really don't get the whole "Hillary Clinton has sooooo much experience" argument.
 
NIKV69
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RE: Obama Now Leading On Delegate Count

Thu Feb 14, 2008 5:52 am



Quoting JetBlueGuy2006 (Reply 37):
I hope you blame that on the governor and legislator. I am pissed that they did that, and I hope that the DNC realizes how big of a blow it could be to the Dem nominee, whoever it is; if they don't seat the delegates.

As a voter in Michigan, I hope the DNC sees that voters had absolutly nothing to do with this, and shouldn't be punished. If anything, maybe take away the Superdelegates votes who supported the idea.

Oh I know it's the state officials but what is done is done. Howard Dean has inherited huge headache.

Quoting RW170 (Reply 43):
I agree, the votes should not count. But if the DNC decided to count MI and FL, how would that work? Hillary and Dennis Kucinich were the only two candidates on the Democratic ballot in MI. Does Obama just get left out in the cold or does something else happen?

The states would petition to have them count and it could happen. If I remember right wasn't CA stripped of their delegates and some state official delegate screamed on the floor to have this delegates seated and they were? As is becoming the case the DNC convention will be a must watch!

Quoting Tsaord (Reply 46):
He is inspiring and that doesn't show me he can run this country based on some feel good words

I just heard him on the radio giving another one of his speeches and now he is going to attack CEOs because they make too much money. This guy is downright scary but then again so was Hillary when she said she would take Exxon's profits.
Hey that guy with the private jet can bail us out! Why? HE CAN AFFORD IT!

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