bristolflyer
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Time To Invest In The Stock Market?

Tue Oct 07, 2008 11:59 pm

Any investors out there? I haven't got any investments at the moment, thankfully, but it seems like sometime soon maybe a good time to buy with the market being so low. BTW I'm a complete novice so don't flame me!

Anyone have any thoughts?
Fortune favours the brave
 
scrubbsywg
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RE: Time To Invest In The Stock Market?

Wed Oct 08, 2008 12:09 am

i guess you have to really decide if you think the market is at its bottom or if it will continue to go down. I'm not sure ANYONE knows where things will be in the next 6 mos. Just look how fast this all came. 4 weeks ago, the was a sub prime 'problem', but in the last 3 weeks or so, we have seen the financial sector change dramatically.

You also have to think that the economy just isn't doing well, besides the finanicial companies. The US has lost jobs every month this year. Automakers are all down. Consumer confidence is down.

I guess a good way of looking at it would be it is a lot lower than in was before, but no one can say the markets have stopped their slide.
 
jetblueguy22
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RE: Time To Invest In The Stock Market?

Wed Oct 08, 2008 12:38 am

I've seen on all the networks they say don't sell but don't be a hero and buy stocks. Best thing to do is hold (of course unless the company has big issues, or put money in a money market account. For one in a money market you are guaranteed increases and two you are actually helping the banks.
Blue
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
portcolumbus
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RE: Time To Invest In The Stock Market?

Wed Oct 08, 2008 12:44 am

Made a little money Friday on a quick trade, but I'm back into cash right now. Lots of solid companies with attractive valuations, but fundamentals don't seem to matter right now.
 
National757
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RE: Time To Invest In The Stock Market?

Wed Oct 08, 2008 12:46 am

I thought the time to invest in the stock market was when Buffet bought into Goldman Sachs. The Buffet bottom never materialized, so I am not quite sure what to believe.
 
Flighty
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RE: Time To Invest In The Stock Market?

Wed Oct 08, 2008 1:06 am

I vote yes. We can't know the future. But we do know this: things are cheaper now than before. It is a better buying time now. Buying during steep declines never hurt anybody in the long run. I vote it is a good time.

Is it risky? All things are risky. Cash exposes you to substantial inflation risk.

As stocks decline, they become less risky to buy. Now is the most solid time in years to buy stock.

[Edited 2008-10-07 18:08:48]
 
roadrunner165
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RE: Time To Invest In The Stock Market?

Wed Oct 08, 2008 1:25 am

Yes, now is the time to invest in the stock market. As long as you do it wisely.
 
AF340
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RE: Time To Invest In The Stock Market?

Wed Oct 08, 2008 1:30 am

I guess the question would be, do you want short term or long term investments? If it is the latter, then it would definitely be a good time to make some investments (you could wait a bit longer to get a lower price if you wanted to "risk it").

Commodities (read oil, gold) are going down, but in the long run you stand to make a lot if you buy in now.

There is another similar thread about the situation in Canada that you might want to take a gander at:

http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo...ms/non_aviation/read.main/1986612/


The basic principle here is the markets will always go up over time. So buy in now when it is a cheap price and you are almost guaranteed to make a decent profit (if you sell at the right time).


Liam spin 
 
EMBQA
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RE: Time To Invest In The Stock Market?

Wed Oct 08, 2008 1:45 am

YES BUY..... they are some GREAT deals out there right now. But only buy into well established companies and buy for long term.
"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog"
 
fbgdavidson
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RE: Time To Invest In The Stock Market?

Wed Oct 08, 2008 1:59 am



Quoting BristolFlyer (Thread starter):
Anyone have any thoughts?

How do you want to invest?
Do you want to day trade and muck around buying and selling all day?
When do you want to cash in?
Does it matter if you lose the lot?

Personally I don't think there is ever a good time to just dump a load of cash on the stock market. Even as young investor I prefer more conservative strategies like dollar cost averaging where you'll drip feed a percentage of your cash into the market over an extended period of time so you don't try to time the perfect low. Since this slump began back in July '07 you could claim there were dozens of times that were good to buy in as we were heading out of the woods. I've heard plenty of claims that the DJI. could reach around 8000 before it starts to head back up again. Personally, the way it and the other major indices are leaking so fast I don't think that'll be the case!

If you want to start buying individual stocks start doing research and use a bit of common sense. e.g. Is it good to buy a ton of Apple stock is millions of people are losing their jobs left and right? Probably not...
"My first job was selling doors, door to door, that's a tough job innit" - Bill Bailey
 
sv7887
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RE: Time To Invest In The Stock Market?

Wed Oct 08, 2008 3:16 am

I would stay out of it right now..If you have cash preserve it!!!! With bank failures and the crisis spreading we have a long aways to go before we bottom out.

Unless you have a 20 yr plus investment holding horizon do not invest any cash into the market. If you currently have money in a bank, I'd consider it "Riskless" money so it makes no sense to invest in the midst of an economic downturn.

It will get worse before it will get better...

Quoting Flighty (Reply 5):
Is it risky? All things are risky. Cash exposes you to substantial inflation risk.

Deflation might be a bigger risk, but he can always buy Treasury Inflation Protected Securities.
 
roadrunner165
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RE: Time To Invest In The Stock Market?

Wed Oct 08, 2008 3:25 am

Quoting Sv7887 (Reply 10):
I would stay out of it right now..If you have cash preserve it!!!! With bank failures and the crisis spreading we have a long aways to go before we bottom out.


Bank failures.... Who cares? unless of course you have more then 100k in your account.

Crisis.... When there is blood on the streets, buy property.

[Edited 2008-10-07 20:28:21]
 
sv7887
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RE: Time To Invest In The Stock Market?

Wed Oct 08, 2008 3:34 am



Quoting Roadrunner165 (Reply 11):
Bank failures.... Who cares? unless of course you have more then 100k in your account.

Crisis.... When there is blood on the streets, buy property.

My point is that putting essentially "riskless" money into a very volatile market that has yet to bottom out is dangerous, especially if you are inexperienced...

With bank runs and this kind of economic turmoil also comes layoffs..I wouldn't borrow a cent right now if I was in any way concerned about my job..This is the time to hold onto reserves and ride out the storm. I think we're only at the beginning of this mess.

I haven't stopped investing in my 401K nor will I, but I am working on building up reserves to deal with a potential layoff or anything else that comes my way.
 
NAV20
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RE: Time To Invest In The Stock Market?

Wed Oct 08, 2008 3:50 am

Bristolflyer, I think that you have to distinguish between investing and speculating.

Buying 'cheap' shares on the basis of 'what goes down must go up' is speculation pure and simple. It's much more akin to betting on which horse you reckon is going to win a horserace than any form of 'investment.' Trouble with shares is, of course, that in a horserace at least somebody wins; recently, there have been plenty of days recently on the world's stock exchanges on which there have literally been 'no winners'; check out this site and you'll see that that's literlally what it says about the Dow Jones yesterday:-

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/f.../hi/business/market_data/overview/

It ALSO says that the 'top loser' in NY was Bank of America, whose shares lost no less than 26.23% of their value just yesterday. How would you feel if you'd bought some the day before?

So no, in my view it's far too early to think in terms of buying shares. There's no sign at all that equities have in any way 'bottomed out'; nor is there any sign that any sectors are doing any better than others.

The salient feature of the present situation is that the banks are desperate for cash - and are therefore offering relatively high rates of interest on savings/deposit accounts. Furthermore, as we are seeing, governments worldwide cannot afford to let the banks go broke; and they can't afford to have people lose their savings either, so increasing numbers of them are guaranteeing deposits on an increasing scale.

So, boring as it may seem, if you have any spare cash, the best form of investment for it right now would appear to be a boring old bank deposit account. Stay on the safe, boring old swings for the moment, don't venture on to the more exciting, but currently very dangerous, roundabouts......
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
Flighty
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RE: Time To Invest In The Stock Market?

Wed Oct 08, 2008 4:08 am



Quoting NAV20 (Reply 13):
Buying 'cheap' shares on the basis of 'what goes down must go up' is speculation pure and simple. It's much more akin to betting on which horse you reckon is going to win a horserace than any form of 'investment.'

Of course, buying downtrodden stocks per se is a particular kind of bet. Sometimes it's a good one, sometimes not. Wachovia did well for some scavengers last week, 300% return. Gamble.

However buying a broad base of stocks is not a bet, but rather an investment. It's just a "bet" that the human race will continue to engage in commerce. This is a definitional part of our existence, not a "bet" in the classic sense of the word. There will still be a stock market. Our world is producing more gross product this year -- 2008 -- than ever before.

The people who own that capital will generally be richer than anyone has been before. This is not a gamble, just an observation.
 
Alias1024
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Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 11:13 am

RE: Time To Invest In The Stock Market?

Wed Oct 08, 2008 4:20 am



Quoting NAV20 (Reply 13):
It ALSO says that the 'top loser' in NY was Bank of America, whose shares lost no less than 26.23% of their value just yesterday. How would you feel if you'd bought some the day before?

I'll be sure to thank Ken Lewis for placing a $10 billion secondary the day before the temporary ban on short selling expires.  Angry

At least I'm not down too badly on BAC and have a 18 month horizon on the investment. I'm not about to kick myself for not turning my investment into a profitable trade. I bought for the longer term story, and I think it still works. There will be bumps along the way.
It is a mistake to think you can solve any major problems with just potatoes.
 
NAV20
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RE: Time To Invest In The Stock Market?

Wed Oct 08, 2008 5:24 am

No disagreement, Flighty - eventually better times will return. But I'm sure we're both interpreting BristolFlyer's question as to whether he should invest in shares right now. And on the face of it the answer (unless he has a real heap of spare cash combined with a taste for adventure) surely has to be, "No, not yet"?


Quoting Flighty (Reply 14):
Our world is producing more gross product this year -- 2008 -- than ever before.

Not sure that that point shouldn't have been prefaced by 'until recently.' In the course of what's getting to be quite a long life, I've never before encountered a 'downturn' that was anything like this sudden or this deep. And I can't recall one where so many adverse factors were involved - namely:-

1. This crisis is hitting right at the foundation of the 'economic miracle' that has occurred in the Western world since WW2 - virtually-universal 'home ownership.' This crisis isn't just a matter of a downturn in consumer spending - it carries the risk that many people will already be feeling that they'd better not spend anything at all.

2. It's occurring at the worst possible time of year - just when retailers would normally be building up stocks for the Christmas 'spend-fest,' and their suppliers would be working overtime to fill the flood of orders.

3. The government of the United States (which, as we have re-discovered in recent days, remains the 'GHQ' of the world economy) is currently in 'neutral' due to the forthcoming Election. And will remain so until whoever gets elected is sworn in in January, assembled their team, and got it running smoothly; and also assessed what is, or is not, 'do-able' in light of the makeup of the new Congress.

So I couldn't agree more that everything will come right in 'the long term.' But I fear that it might be a rather longer term than we've been used to hitherto. Also (rather eerily) I can't help being reminded of John Maynard Keynes' famous remark long ago (in fact, way back in 1923) - which I've always, up to now, mentally dismissed as 'old-fashioned':-

"Long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead."
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
AGM100
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RE: Time To Invest In The Stock Market?

Wed Oct 08, 2008 1:36 pm

My Dad told me the other day that he had lived through a couple of these "end of days" financial scenarios. He said its the same everytime , what goes up must come down ..then go up again.

We must buy , if we dont then we are saying that it will not ever come back. In that case , go buy a couple cases of 5.56 ammo,some gold coins , lots of canned food , dig a bunker and settle in.


Now , what to buy and when is the question .... My gut is saying some financials may be a play soon .. BOA , C , JPM, HBC, ? they are very low even in a historical sense. Tough call for sure ,
You dig the hole .. I fill the hole . 100% employment !
 
NIKV69
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RE: Time To Invest In The Stock Market?

Wed Oct 08, 2008 1:47 pm

We haven't see the bottom yet. This Xmas season will be bad, retail will get murdered since they need Dec to save their year and with fuel falling I figure next April is when we will see the rebound. Or beginning of it anyway.
Hey that guy with the private jet can bail us out! Why? HE CAN AFFORD IT!
 
bristolflyer
Posts: 2103
Joined: Fri May 14, 2004 1:35 am

RE: Time To Invest In The Stock Market?

Wed Oct 08, 2008 5:48 pm

Thanks for your responses. In answer to the short term/long term question that a few of you asked - short to medium term. Maybe 6 months to a year?

Quoting NIKV69 (Reply 18):
We haven't see the bottom yet. This Xmas season will be bad, retail will get murdered since they need Dec to save their year and with fuel falling I figure next April is when we will see the rebound. Or beginning of it anyway.

Interesting. This Christmas promises to be pretty tough for retailers. But Wal Mart usually does pretty well in a downturn doesn't it as it has the lowest prices?
Fortune favours the brave
 
swissy
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RE: Time To Invest In The Stock Market?

Wed Oct 08, 2008 9:06 pm



Quoting Roadrunner165 (Reply 6):
Yes, now is the time to invest in the stock market. As long as you do it wisely.

Agree 100%, do you home work, there are many financially sound companies being dragged down because of the cr.. going on right now, use your cash not someone elses for now.......

The healthy ones will survive and the weak ones will disappear, have not lost any sleep at all because I do not borrow any $$$ I can not afford to lose......(very little)

I think if "we" would learn to depend more on $$$ we have and not on credit all the time, things would be more stable  Smile

Yes citizens of our world it is a good time to invest... but wisely....

Cheerios,
 
NAV20
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RE: Time To Invest In The Stock Market?

Fri Oct 10, 2008 5:21 am

To coin a phrase, "Shoot...!!!!"

Trouble is, we're awake and doing business here when everyone else is asleep. And therefore, watching our stock exchange figures, you can never decide whether we're just following Wall Street's lead from yesterday or leading today's world 'market sentiment' ourselves..........

Anyway - for what it's worth - as of a minute ago (05.18 GMT), Sydney down 7.81%, Hong Kong down 7.61%, Tokyo down 9.47%.........

"Ladies and gentlemen, throughout the flight, we recommend that you keep your seatbelt lightly fastened at all times........."

[Edited 2008-10-09 22:22:59]
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
Alias1024
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Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 11:13 am

RE: Time To Invest In The Stock Market?

Fri Oct 10, 2008 5:37 am

I'm really wondering if tomorrow won't be the ugliest day in the history of Wall Street.

The US markets fell off a cliff in the last hour of trading today, so no confidence building late day rally to help the market start well tomorrow. Everyone on Wall Street is frightened, hedge funds are getting crushed and might be looking to get more cash going into the weekend, and the Asian and Australian markets look like they are in serious decline. President Bush will give another one of his confidence inspiring speeches, which will probably be good for a 200 point loss by itself, assuming no new initiatives are announced. Oh yeah, General Electric reports tomorrow.

I'm not saying it will happen, but if Asia finishes badly, the European markets circle the drain, and GE misses or guides lower, the set up is there for the Dow to plunge 1,000 points as the last of the bulls finally decide armageddon has arrived.

No matter what, when we finally find the bottom we are going to get one hell of a snap back rally to trade  :D
Edit: I forgot the G7 meeting. Needless to say, this has the potential to really mess things up bad if they don't help the global markets.

[Edited 2008-10-09 22:46:18]

[Edited 2008-10-09 22:46:35]
It is a mistake to think you can solve any major problems with just potatoes.
 
NAV20
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RE: Time To Invest In The Stock Market?

Fri Oct 10, 2008 9:35 am



Quoting Alias1024 (Reply 22):
Edit: I forgot the G7 meeting.

Apparently they've given up on 'G7' and are planning a 'G20' meeting later next week, Alias1024.

Am I allowed to type 'Fuckwit politicians' on here, or will it get me banned?  Smile
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
Blackprojects
Posts: 527
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RE: Time To Invest In The Stock Market?

Fri Oct 10, 2008 9:50 am

The UK and Asian Stock Markets Crashed this Morning falling so far and so Fast a lot of investment Bankers are up to there Eyeballs in RED INK (BLOOD BATH) has been Mentioned.

So Investing in the Stock Marketts is a great big NO-NO at this time.

 old 
 
Alias1024
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Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 11:13 am

RE: Time To Invest In The Stock Market?

Fri Oct 10, 2008 5:44 pm



Quoting NAV20 (Reply 23):
Am I allowed to type 'Fuckwit politicians' on here, or will it get me banned?  

I think that sums it up pretty well.  Smile


I watched Europe open on CNBC and I don't remember ever seeing an trainwreck like that. The volume and order imbalances were so high that half the stocks on the Italian exchange were halted.  Wow!

There seemed to be some capitulation on the open in New York, but not enough to really make me think we hit bottom. The indiscriminate selling of equities was there, but so were the buyers within a few minutes. It was a good tradable bounce, but not the bloodbath I was thinking might happen. Doesn't mean that it wasn't the bottom, it will just take a couple of successful retests of the low before I start believing.
It is a mistake to think you can solve any major problems with just potatoes.

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