ConcordeBoy
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Opec Likely To Slash Production Tomorrow

Thu Oct 23, 2008 7:36 pm

Most predictions fall between 500K to 1.5M barrels per day.... though Iran has very publicly called for a reduction of 2M barrels per day.



So what say you about this? Seems that with the dollar rallying, and people pulling out of commodities... the rest of the world was finally starting to unbend from over the barrel and start to attend to its very sore hiney.

Seems OPEC was just taking a break to lube-up for round 2, though.  Sad

What say you?
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
scrubbsywg
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RE: Opec Likely To Slash Production Tomorrow

Thu Oct 23, 2008 7:45 pm

seriously, why does this even make news anymore besides people trading in oil futures? Every week i hear a story that they are cutting production or trying to. Sometimes it works to raise prices, but sometimes it doesnt. Sure gas affects us all, but we have seen oil drop almost 50% less in the last little while and my gas prices are nowhere near 50% less than they were before.

It just seems to me that OPEC is a mouthpiece for countries that normally the world doesnt give a rats ass about.
 
jcs17
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RE: Opec Likely To Slash Production Tomorrow

Thu Oct 23, 2008 7:49 pm

Even if Iran got what they wanted, it really still wouldn't matter. Oil will continue to drop like a rock as demand has fallen drastically and the dollar is improving. We should see $50 ppb by late winter/early spring if the economic and consumption trends stay the way they are. I'm very interested to see what happens in Iran, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia -- countries that haven't done much revenue diversification while oil was $100+ ppb.
America's chickens are coming home to rooooost!
 
WunalaYann
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RE: Opec Likely To Slash Production Tomorrow

Thu Oct 23, 2008 10:40 pm



Quoting JCS17 (Reply 2):
countries that haven't done much revenue diversification while oil was $100+ ppb.

As much as it pains me to "defend" these regimes, in all honesty we should mention that oil was not at $100/bbl for long enough to launch structural economic and social changes there.

But I do think that once the global economy recovers in the next 12/18 months, oil prices will go up again. Mechanical.
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: Opec Likely To Slash Production Tomorrow

Thu Oct 23, 2008 10:58 pm



Quoting WunalaYann (Reply 3):
we should mention that oil was not at $100/bbl for long enough to launch structural economic and social changes there.

Yeah, but no real longterm excuse.

Look at DXB/UAE-- they realize that oil's not going to be there forever. What's KoSA et al's excuse?
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
WunalaYann
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RE: Opec Likely To Slash Production Tomorrow

Thu Oct 23, 2008 11:20 pm



Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 4):
Yeah, but no real longterm excuse.

Look at DXB/UAE-- they realize that oil's not going to be there forever. What's KoSA et al's excuse?

You are preaching to the choir.

I have been bashing most Middle-Eastern dictatorships for simply not taking advantage of their wealth to prepare for post-oil. And to fail to simply improve welfare and freedom in their countries. The UN's HDI is merciless in its assessment of these countries' failures.

 Smile

Then again, not every country is Norway.  Sad
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: Opec Likely To Slash Production Tomorrow

Fri Oct 24, 2008 3:34 am



Quoting WunalaYann (Reply 5):
The UN's HDI is merciless in its assessment of these countries' failures.

...which, when it's all said and done, accomplishes what? Nothing.  Yeah sure
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
WunalaYann
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RE: Opec Likely To Slash Production Tomorrow

Fri Oct 24, 2008 3:53 am



Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 6):
which, when it's all said and done, accomplishes what? Nothing.

I am not following. Are you saying that the Human Development Indicator does not accomplish anything? Well it is only logical considering it is an indicator and not a policy...  confused .
 
planesarecool
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RE: Opec Likely To Slash Production Tomorrow

Fri Oct 24, 2008 12:07 pm

Don't really see what the fuss is about. They increased production when prices were at $140, so they're decreasing production now that it's back to a sensible level.

Quoting JCS17 (Reply 2):
We should see $50 ppb by late winter/early spring

Why wait until then? Brent is already down to $59 this morning, despite the OPEC announcement.
 
MaverickM11
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RE: Opec Likely To Slash Production Tomorrow

Fri Oct 24, 2008 12:54 pm

And oil is down almost $5 to about $63 right now. Suck it OPEC! Silly
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
N867DA
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RE: Opec Likely To Slash Production Tomorrow

Fri Oct 24, 2008 1:23 pm

Are all the oil companies in OPEC countries owned by the state? Maybe once in a while some mouthpiece gets on the TV and announces a cut in production but it isn't carried out.
A nation turns its lonely eyes to you
 
baroque
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RE: Opec Likely To Slash Production Tomorrow

Fri Oct 24, 2008 1:57 pm



Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 4):
What's KoSA et al's excuse?

Either unwillingness to do the maths or a reluctance to act on the numbers in the last row.

But they are hardly R Crusoe in that respect!!!
 
Cadet57
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RE: Opec Likely To Slash Production Tomorrow

Fri Oct 24, 2008 2:08 pm

Oil price: 1

OPEC Blowhards: 0
Doors open, right hand side, next stop is Springfield.
 
MaverickM11
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RE: Opec Likely To Slash Production Tomorrow

Fri Oct 24, 2008 2:22 pm



Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 4):
Look at DXB/UAE-- they realize that oil's not going to be there forever.

I wonder if they're not trading an oil bubble for a finance and housing bubble
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
baroque
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RE: Opec Likely To Slash Production Tomorrow

Fri Oct 24, 2008 3:07 pm

The plunge in oil prices might be an indication of the inability of OPEC to do much about the supply demand balance, but it might also be an indication of how much oil purchasing is being stuffed up be the credit market, which a month or so down the track might start to mean that some countries lack supplies. We had all best hope it is not our own country if that is the case!
 
Arrow
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RE: Opec Likely To Slash Production Tomorrow

Fri Oct 24, 2008 3:35 pm

There is so much panic selling going on in all markets, all commodities, all over the globe that it defies any one organization's efforts (like OPEC) to stop the tide from going out. I listened yesterday to two analyst conference calls with major Canadian oil companies -- Petro-Canada and EnCana -- and a third (Husky) two days earlier. None of them has any confidence in what's going on, or when it will end. While they all report spectacular Q3 earnings, they are all scaling down their CAPEX plans for 2009.

Petrocan and Suncor have both announced deferments for planned oil sands upgraders, EnCana is expected to chop its shale gas exploration budget in a month's time. All of which will set up the next meteoric rise in oil prices, maybe 12 months down the road.

The mistake we make over and over again on this stuff is during a spectacular spike, no one thinks it could ever go down; and during a spectacular slide, no one thinks it can ever go up again. Wonderful example of this: a year ago EnCana announced it would hedge 80% of its natural gas sales going forward, and at the time analysts were unanimous in their condemnation of this based on forecasts of continuing price rises. Yesterday EnCana announced a Q3 profit of $3.55 billion -- and $2 billion of that was directly attributable to their hedging decision.

Anyone have a good crystal ball out there?
Never let the facts get in the way of a good story.
 
MaverickM11
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RE: Opec Likely To Slash Production Tomorrow

Fri Oct 24, 2008 3:58 pm



Quoting Arrow (Reply 15):
The mistake we make over and over again on this stuff is during a spectacular spike, no one thinks it could ever go down; and during a spectacular slide, no one thinks it can ever go up again

 checkmark   checkmark   checkmark  I really don't understand how we never learn.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
Arrow
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RE: Opec Likely To Slash Production Tomorrow

Fri Oct 24, 2008 4:11 pm



Quoting Baroque (Reply 14):
We had all best hope it is not our own country if that is the case!

No problem, we'll just cut off the Americans. Big grin

Oops. NAFTA says we can't do that. But Barack wants to re-negotiate NAFTA so maybe we can fix that little problem sometime next year.
Never let the facts get in the way of a good story.
 
baroque
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RE: Opec Likely To Slash Production Tomorrow

Fri Oct 24, 2008 5:52 pm



Quoting Arrow (Reply 17):
Quoting Baroque (Reply 14):
We had all best hope it is not our own country if that is the case!

No problem, we'll just cut off the Americans.

Might be inevitable with natural gas if folk like ENCANA are cutting back. Production in a couple of years depends on exploration and development done now!  thumbsdown 

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 16):
Quoting Arrow (Reply 15):
The mistake we make over and over again on this stuff is during a spectacular spike, no one thinks it could ever go down; and during a spectacular slide, no one thinks it can ever go up again

checkmark checkmark checkmark I really don't understand how we never learn.

To be fair on big oil, it did actually work out the parameters of the problem around 1957 I think it was. And at times I know some of them have tried counter cyclical activity, but in the end the cost is just too much - although one has to wonder exactly the way in which costs are assessed. Then again, we know that the oil companies are hanged drawn and quartered if they do not meet their quarterly targets for - WALL ST. And round we go in another circle.

Perhaps a saviour will descend from on high who can steer us into a virtuous circle.  angel 

Derico, back around the turn of the last century, I think Argentina had close to the highest GDP per head, which is a sober lesson for all states who fancy themselves as being rich, especially if being rich is considered some sort of right or a result of the natural order of things!!  crossfingers 
 
F9Animal
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RE: Opec Likely To Slash Production Tomorrow

Sat Oct 25, 2008 8:51 am

I personally blame oil and OPEC for the current economic crisis. Anyone agree that they were the beginning of what broke the camels back here? When oil got up to $4 a gallon here in the US, people were panicking. I know I started freaking out, and many were anticipating $5.00 a gallon. I know I started tightening up my spending, and I know I am not alone. How about most of the world tightening up their spending, because of the cost of oil?

I think oil is fine in the $50 range. I remember when oil first hit $50, OPEC was quick to announce an increase in production to keep the prices lower. When oil hit $150 a barrel, OPEC was quiet, and almost unheard of. Now that oil is below $70, OPEC is freaking out, saying that they feel "comfortable" with $80.

This OPEC thing is criminal in my opinion. They are assisting in mugging the user of its products, and I think it is just wrong. Again, I blame oil for this awful decline in the worlds economy.
I Am A Different Animal!!
 
swissy
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RE: Opec Likely To Slash Production Tomorrow

Sat Oct 25, 2008 12:39 pm



Quoting F9Animal (Reply 19):
This OPEC thing is criminal in my opinion. They are assisting in mugging the user of its products, and I think it is just wrong. Again, I blame oil for this awful decline in the worlds economy.

Maybe somewhat a dictator organisation..... oil is just a part of the problem, the reason why things are falling is because the retarded amounts of credits given out with very little/wrong or no securities behind it...... people have to learn again to use cash and not credit

US housing market is an other one

I do not think the production cuts will halt the slide of the oil in the short term......

We have not hit rock bottom yet, cold weather & x-mas is just around the corner.

Cheerios,
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: Opec Likely To Slash Production Tomorrow

Sun Oct 26, 2008 9:19 am



Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 13):
I wonder if they're not trading an oil bubble for a finance and housing bubble

Could feel ya on that.

Quoting Arrow (Reply 17):
No problem, we'll just cut off the Americans.

And prompt the USA invasion of Canada in the same year... brilliant.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
MD11Engineer
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RE: Opec Likely To Slash Production Tomorrow

Sun Oct 26, 2008 4:06 pm



Quoting Swissy (Reply 20):
We have not hit rock bottom yet, cold weather & x-mas is just around the corner.

Cheerios,

But most people will have filled up their heating oil tanks in september.

Jan
Je Suis Charlie et je suis Ahmet aussi
 
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Tugger
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RE: Opec Likely To Slash Production Tomorrow

Sun Oct 26, 2008 5:03 pm



Quoting Arrow (Reply 17):
No problem, we'll just cut off the Americans. Big grin

You are sounding just a little like Hugo Chavez. Wink He keeps saying he'll cut off the oil to the only customer that actually pays full price and in cash?

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 19):
I personally blame oil and OPEC for the current economic crisis. Anyone agree that they were the beginning of what broke the camels back here? When oil got up to $4 a gallon here in the US, people were panicking. I know I started freaking out, and many were anticipating $5.00 a gallon. I know I started tightening up my spending, and I know I am not alone. How about most of the world tightening up their spending, because of the cost of oil?

I think oil is fine in the $50 range. I remember when oil first hit $50, OPEC was quick to announce an increase in production to keep the prices lower. When oil hit $150 a barrel, OPEC was quiet, and almost unheard of. Now that oil is below $70, OPEC is freaking out, saying that they feel "comfortable" with $80.

This OPEC thing is criminal in my opinion. They are assisting in mugging the user of its products, and I think it is just wrong. Again, I blame oil for this awful decline in the worlds economy.

I don't think oil's rise is really OPEC's fault, nor do I believe that oil's fall is something that OPEC can control. It was the flight of dollars into commodities seeking inflation protection that started it and it became a vicious circle, as the price rose the dollar sank because it affected the economy, as the economy showed more and more signs of weakness (due to oil and housing and banking) more dollars fled for safe harbor of oil and the price rose more which made it a must buy to protect you from the rise.....
And then it all came crashing down as the financial crisis hit and people had to unwind their positions to bring money home.

As Arrow said (yes I am taking a little out of context):

Quoting Arrow (Reply 15):
The mistake we make over and over again on this stuff is during a spectacular spike, no one thinks it could ever go down; .....

Tugg
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