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fxramper
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$1.00 For Gallon Of Gasoline Soon.

Fri Dec 05, 2008 7:07 pm

Per the Gulf Oil CEO, he sees oil at prices in the next few months that would put a gallon of 87 octane at $.99 a gallon. Will this help your monthly budget? How would this effect the US economy? Still a second stimulus from Obama? A record number of lost jobs in 34 years was reported today by the government.

Source: Bloomberg and MSNBC both reported.
 
oldman55
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RE: $1.00 For Gallon Of Gasoline Soon.

Fri Dec 05, 2008 7:17 pm

That would be wonderful if it really happens; but since it was only a few months ago that oil was supposedly headed for $200 a barrel, I believe this is just another wild guess. PS I hope fuel oil prices take the same dramatic drop as that is what our house is heated with.
too bad most of us get too soon old and too late smart
 
PPVRA
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RE: $1.00 For Gallon Of Gasoline Soon.

Fri Dec 05, 2008 7:56 pm

$25bbl forecast:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...7&sid=aIUEV3pCOJeo&refer=worldwide

It's certainly a relief given the economic times.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
PHLBOS
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RE: $1.00 For Gallon Of Gasoline Soon.

Fri Dec 05, 2008 8:03 pm

Quoting FXramper (Thread starter):
Will this help your monthly budget?

Does a duck quack? 

Quoting FXramper (Thread starter):
How would this effect the US economy?

It would have a similar to what happened the last couple of times the price fell below $1/gallon (1986 & 1999); i.e. it definitely wouldn't hurt.

Quoting Oldman55 (Reply 1):
it was only a few months ago that oil was supposedly headed for $200 a barrel,

I still remember the $5/gallon predictions made during the 1970s for 1985.

Memo to airlines: Start buying fuel hedges NOW!

[Edited 2008-12-05 12:14:42]
"TransEastern! You'll feel like you've never left the ground because we treat you like dirt!" SNL Parady ad circa 1981
 
Dougloid
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RE: $1.00 For Gallon Of Gasoline Soon.

Fri Dec 05, 2008 8:18 pm

E-10 was $1.51 here this morning and I told the Dragon Lady

"Conga line at $1.49!" Join me as we shake our gas cans around the pump.

It's a happy thought.


 Wink
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
srbmod
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RE: $1.00 For Gallon Of Gasoline Soon.

Fri Dec 05, 2008 8:25 pm

I know my employer will like it, provided that diesel goes to under $2 a gallon in conjunction with this, as one of the four vehicles in our fleet is diesel and our fuel surcharge is based off of the price of diesel. Myself, I'm still having to figure out how much to prepay when I fill up my work vehicle (very few stations around here don't require you to prepay), as a few months back, it was costing me $80-100 to fill up (I usually wait until I'm under a quarter tank to fill up), now, we're talking $40-45.

It really doesn't effect my personal budget, as I drive my car a handful of times a month, so a full tank of gas lasts me quite a while.
 
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aloha73g
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RE: $1.00 For Gallon Of Gasoline Soon.

Fri Dec 05, 2008 8:26 pm

Still ~$2.40 here in Honolulu......I hope it makes it back to the $1.xx range.

I remember $1.69 here when the mainland was at $0.99. $1.69 would be AWESOME!!!

I thought we'd never see "cheap" gas ever again.

As for the Airlines hedging......I sure hope they do.....if they didn't learn their lesson last time........

-Aloha!
Aloha Airlines - The Spirit Moves Us. Gone but NEVER Forgotten. Aloha, A Hui Hou!
 
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DocLightning
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RE: $1.00 For Gallon Of Gasoline Soon.

Fri Dec 05, 2008 10:32 pm

Don't get too used to it. It won't last.

In the long run, I expect gasoline over the next decade to average out to about $3-$3.50 per gallon. It'll be $1.50 for a while, then swing up to $4.50, then back down, etc.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
geekydude
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RE: $1.00 For Gallon Of Gasoline Soon.

Fri Dec 05, 2008 11:14 pm

I have mixed feelings. In the short term it's definitely a relief; in the long run, though, it can only make people more addicted to oil which will make the next oil shock even more painful.
FLIB 152 'heavy' low approach...Caution wake turbulance!
 
doug_or
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RE: $1.00 For Gallon Of Gasoline Soon.

Fri Dec 05, 2008 11:26 pm



Quoting Geekydude (Reply 8):
I have mixed feelings. In the short term it's definitely a relief; in the long run, though, it can only make people more addicted to oil which will make the next oil shock even more painful.

My thoughts exactly. We all just had the opportunity to learn some very expensive lessons. Weather we take anything away from the experience of $4 a gallon gas (in the US) or go back to our old ways will be telling.
When in doubt, one B pump off
 
NIKV69
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RE: $1.00 For Gallon Of Gasoline Soon.

Fri Dec 05, 2008 11:39 pm



Quoting FXramper (Thread starter):
Per the Gulf Oil CEO, he sees oil at prices in the next few months that would put a gallon of 87 octane at $.99

What a genius seeing it's already probably 1.69 in NJ and other places.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 7):
In the long run, I expect gasoline over the next decade to average out to about $3-$3.50 per gallon. It'll be $1.50 for a while, then swing up to $4.50, then back down, etc.

Doubt it, with people buying more fuel efficient cars and learning from this last nightmare to conserve I think we won't go over low 3s for a long time.
Hey that guy with the private jet can bail us out! Why? HE CAN AFFORD IT!
 
geekydude
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RE: $1.00 For Gallon Of Gasoline Soon.

Fri Dec 05, 2008 11:52 pm



Quoting NIKV69 (Reply 10):
Doubt it, with people buying more fuel efficient cars and learning from this last nightmare to conserve I think we won't go over low 3s for a long time.

Hopefully that will be true. But the problem is that it's not just the US that's using oil, unless there's a fundamental change in technology and people's mentality, the moderate conservation efforts by the US can be easily offset by the increase in demand elsewhere, such as India and China, with their rapid growth and huge population, all of whom are trying to get rich and emulate the American way of life.

As Tom Friedman puts it in his latest book "Hot, Flat, and Crowded", Doha and Dalian, two cities you probably have never heard of, will eat your energy savings for lunch.
FLIB 152 'heavy' low approach...Caution wake turbulance!
 
yooyoo
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RE: $1.00 For Gallon Of Gasoline Soon.

Sat Dec 06, 2008 12:01 am

It's $0.74 /L just east of YYZ and i bet if you go further east on the 401 it'll be at or below $.70/L
I am so smart, i am so smart... S-M-R-T... i mean S-M-A-R-T
 
skysurfer
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RE: $1.00 For Gallon Of Gasoline Soon.

Sat Dec 06, 2008 1:10 am

69.7cents CDN here in Kingston, Ontario.......hoping it will go lower seeing as the price of a barrel has dropped, but of course stations are trying the rise to 80 cents a litre every so often to see if anyone will follow. It lasts all but 24 hours b4 it's back to where it should be but i have to admit i'm hesitant seeing gas in the 60's again, because i know it won't last and as soon as the financial markets pick up, as soon as people start making long trips again en masse we'll see fuel rise very quickly and we'll all be complaining again. The last time i saw gas in the 60 cent range was 1999 on holiday over here, and although i look forward to paying next to nothing for gas in Jan/ Feb i hate to think what Mar/Apr/May might bring.

Happy fillups!

Stu

ps, off topic a lil bit, but consider this.....it isn't just airlines losing money over hedging fuel, it's places like greenhouse operations too that locked in their prices at a set rate for a year or two. If the price of heating fuel falls below that locked in rate, then you've just shafted yourself!
In the dark you can't see ugly, but you can feel fat
 
ltbewr
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RE: $1.00 For Gallon Of Gasoline Soon.

Sat Dec 06, 2008 1:37 am

I wish that the Federal and State governments would take advantage of the cheap prices to somewhat limit demand and get very badly revenue and increase gas (not diesel) taxes. Part of the additional revenue would go toward road building and repair and part would keep up mass transit subsidies. That would help keep up construction employment, make the badly needed repairs to bridges and roads to save lives and congestion and limit higher mass transit prices to help the usual working class and the poor who tend to use them. That would also help each state's as well as the national economy.

I am not talking about a lot of money immediatly, perhaps on the order of 10 cents by the feds and 10 cents by the states (a total of 20 cents/gallon) and set up a schedule to raise it gradually to a total of 50 cents a gallon. Yes, I like $1.49/gallon gas here in New Jersey, and for some that is a balnace out of the $ 4.00 gallon we paid this summer, but if it is too low it encourages waste.
 
Dougloid
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RE: $1.00 For Gallon Of Gasoline Soon.

Sat Dec 06, 2008 3:55 am

It's there-

E10 is $1.49 as of this afternoon.

$1.25 baby-comin atcha.
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
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fxramper
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RE: $1.00 For Gallon Of Gasoline Soon.

Sat Dec 06, 2008 5:21 am





Do it.
 
stlgph
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RE: $1.00 For Gallon Of Gasoline Soon.

Sat Dec 06, 2008 6:25 am



Quoting Doug_Or (Reply 9):
we take anything away from the experience of $4 a gallon gas (in the US) or go back to our old ways will be telling.

personally, i'm finding myself driving a lot less with cheaper gas than with expensive gas. i'm sure in part, a great deal of it goes to the fall it's no longer summer and i'm not going somewhere almost every weekend.
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
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DocLightning
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RE: $1.00 For Gallon Of Gasoline Soon.

Sat Dec 06, 2008 11:13 am

Welp, there went those calculations I put into buying that Prius.

I don't regret it. I'm still contributing less to CO2 emissions than I was in that Jeep.

But still, *throws up hands*.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
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RayChuang
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RE: $1.00 For Gallon Of Gasoline Soon.

Sat Dec 06, 2008 2:49 pm

One of the reasons I bought a Honda Civic HX CVT coupe way back in 1998 was because I feared that any price hike would make it less practical to drive my car around. Good thing I did, especially given last summer's ridiculous pricing of US$4.32/US gallon for 87 pump octane unleaded fuel I experienced.

Anyway, my current car is finally in need of a replacement, and I am going to get either a new 2009 Honda Fit or the upcoming 2010 Nissan Cube to replace it.  Smile
 
B6JFKH81
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RE: $1.00 For Gallon Of Gasoline Soon.

Sat Dec 06, 2008 5:22 pm



Quoting FXramper (Thread starter):
Will this help your monthly budget?

Yes...and no. When I bought my car, prices were increasing, and I budgeted for $3.00/gl when estimating how long it will take for the extra cost of the hybrid engine to "pay itself" off based on standard fuel consumption, etc. My fuel consumption was cut a lot (went from 2 fill-ups per week to 1), but if gas drops a lot, then the actual savings I get don't add up as quickly so the extra couple of thousands that were layed out to support the hybrid engine compared to a regular engine in the car aren't paying for themselves as quickly.  eyebrow 

Don't get me wrong, I like only spending a few bucks to fill up my car, and it WILL help me financially, but some of my largest investments were based on higher fuel prices.

Quoting FXramper (Thread starter):
How would this effect the US economy?

Available cash should increase as expenses decrease, making buying extra goodies more feasible. However, with gas this low I can't help but to worry that people have not learned a lesson and will go back to their fuel-burning crazy lifestyle. "Gas is cheap...lets buy a Hummer." "Oil is cheap...crank up the heat so we can just wear undies."  banghead 

~H81
"If you do not learn from history, you are doomed to repeat it"
 
itsjustme
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RE: $1.00 For Gallon Of Gasoline Soon.

Sat Dec 06, 2008 11:57 pm

Maybe some of you economists can help me see the light here. Not to look a gift horse in the mouth but, what has changed so drastically in such a short amount of time that has resulted in the price of a barrel of oil to plummet? I find it hard to believe that our oil consumption, or possible decrease of, has impacted the price of oil so dramatically.
 
HOOB747
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RE: $1.00 For Gallon Of Gasoline Soon.

Sun Dec 07, 2008 12:12 am



Quoting DocLightning (Reply 18):
don't regret it. I'm still contributing less to CO2 emissions than I was in that Jeep

If you are naive enough to think that driving a Prius, as opposed to anything else on the road, will make any dent in the CO2 emissions put out by the planet last year, please let me know how much you must drive to make the impact you seek. A trillion miles?  cheeky 

It is a big planet. And the rest of the world has got your fuel consumption more than covered.
I love dem planes....
 
N867DA
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RE: $1.00 For Gallon Of Gasoline Soon.

Sun Dec 07, 2008 12:16 am

Is it just me or do these so-called analysts have no clue what the hell is going on? Back in July every 'pundit' on the television warned us about "$5 gas by Christmas" and even told us to brace for oil in the $200-400 range. The talked about the end of cheap oil, how the price of gasoline will never fall below $3 again, blah blah blah.

Now these same analysts have the guts to openly say they think oil will hit $1.00 soon? Just what are they doing? It seems like they're just looking at the price of oil for the last two months and linearly extrapolating. Sure, gas could go down to $1.00. It can even go down to $0.35. It could even go to $7.89!

I'm sure their methods are a bit more complicated but one has to admire the way they can suddenly change tunes and not get called on it.
A nation turns its lonely eyes to you
 
geekydude
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RE: $1.00 For Gallon Of Gasoline Soon.

Sun Dec 07, 2008 12:34 am



Quoting Itsjustme (Reply 21):
Maybe some of you economists can help me see the light here. Not to look a gift horse in the mouth but, what has changed so drastically in such a short amount of time that has resulted in the price of a barrel of oil to plummet? I find it hard to believe that our oil consumption, or possible decrease of, has impacted the price of oil so dramatically.

There are a few factors I can think of. The most important one is the global economic slowdown. Germany is recession, Japan is in recession; and just recently the US is officially in recession; the growth rate of emerging countries like China has faltered big time as well. So here we are talking about the 4 largest economies in the world not doing very well. Therefore, the projection of oil demand in the future has been drastically reduced. Also keep in mind that the oil market is quite in the parlance "inelastic", meaning a moderate upward pressure on demand will drive up the price significantly; but the converse is also true, a drop in the predicted future demand can lead to a sharp decrease the price as well.

The current financial crises compounded the mess without a doubt. With confidence gone in the financial sector, investors have started losing faith in the financial instruments they hold in hands. Large investment banks and their hedge funds, for instance, have started dumping the oil futures contract, further driving down the price oil. So such hoarding behavior prevailed in the previous couple of years has largely gone out of fashion.

In addition, you have people getting tired of paying an arm and a leg for energy, which has resulted in many people switching to a greener lifestyle. This may have made the oil market a bit uneasy too.

Of course they maybe a variety of other reasons at play as well. But the consensus seems to be that the last oil shock was brought about by demand, in contrast to the ones happened in the 70"s which were caused by suppliers disrupting output. Therefore, the current drop in oil prices is actually a reverse demand shock at work. Remember, it's not just the current consumption that determines the price of oil, but also the projection and the growth of projected demand are very, if not more, important contributing factors too.

My 2 cents in a nutshell.
FLIB 152 'heavy' low approach...Caution wake turbulance!
 
asuflyer05
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RE: $1.00 For Gallon Of Gasoline Soon.

Sun Dec 07, 2008 4:10 am

Hopefully it spurs consumer confidence.
 
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KaiGywer
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RE: $1.00 For Gallon Of Gasoline Soon.

Sun Dec 07, 2008 6:20 am



Quoting Srbmod (Reply 5):
Myself, I'm still having to figure out how much to prepay when I fill up my work vehicle (very few stations around here don't require you to prepay)

Will they take a credit card as pre-payment? I know of stations around here that require prepay at night. They will let you leave your card at the counter, go fuel up, and then come back inside to pay (usually combined with in-store purchase, why wouldn't you just pay at the pump otherwise).
“Once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the earth with your eyes turned skyward, for there you have been, an
 
MAH4546
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RE: $1.00 For Gallon Of Gasoline Soon.

Sun Dec 07, 2008 9:37 pm

I would get used to cheap gas for a while - all one needs to do is look at history.

History repeats itself, and gas has reached huge peaks, like in 1981, only to collapse shortly thereafter and not go back up for years and years and years.

Cheap gas is here to stay, IMO.
a.
 
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STT757
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RE: $1.00 For Gallon Of Gasoline Soon.

Sun Dec 07, 2008 9:39 pm



Quoting FXramper (Thread starter):
Per the Gulf Oil CEO, he sees oil at prices in the next few months that would put a gallon of 87 octane at $.99 a gallon. Will this help your monthly budget?

Absolutely, it's literally putting money in my pockets. These lower fuel prices are basically a tax cut.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
PHLBOS
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RE: $1.00 For Gallon Of Gasoline Soon.

Mon Dec 08, 2008 4:51 pm

Quoting LTBEWR (Reply 14):
I wish that the Federal and State governments would take advantage of the cheap prices to somewhat limit demand and get very badly revenue and increase gas (not diesel) taxes. Part of the additional revenue would go toward road building and repair and part would keep up mass transit subsidies.

Although I am not a supporter of any increased/higher taxes in general, if push came to shove; the given the pick your poison choice, IMHO, a gas tax increase would be a lot better than raising tolls on existing turnpikes (which has happened in NJ and will happen in PA and MA) or making existing Interstate freeways tollways (Gov. Rendell still wants to make I-80 a toll road in Pennsylvania despite the Feds shooting down the initiative not too long ago). Jacking up tolls and/or converting roads into tollways, by and large, only increases political patronage jobs.

HOWEVER, I would not go bonkers over the amount of increase. A logical approach would be to make a modest increase (say $0.10 to $0.20/gallon); that way, in the eyes of the consumer, the overall price at the pump will still be significantly lower than it was just a few months ago. I would even go as far as making the fuel tax a percentage of the wholesale price rather than a flat rate that way should the price of gas increase; the corresponding gas tax increases as well.

Massachusetts (under the King Administration) back in the early 80s tried this method and it worked fairly well on the revenue side (10% of the wholesale price replacing the flat 8-1/2 cent per gallon rate) when prices were still rising. However, when the price of gas fell (which nobody was predicting back in 1980-81); the state revenues took a hit. As a result, the returning Dukakis Administration in the mid-80s replaced the tax with a flat 12-1/2 cent per gallon tax.

To avoid a repeat of the above, a minimum higher rate would need to be part of the percentage rate condition.

The other condition would be to KEEP/MAINTAIN that all fuel taxes STRICTLY goes towards transportation-related projects and NOT TO A BLACK-HOLE-STYLED GENERAL FUND.

Gas Price Update: The Pilot Station in Sturbridge, MA (Exit 1 off I-84) even had PREMIUM priced below $2/gallon last week.

[Edited 2008-12-08 09:14:38]
"TransEastern! You'll feel like you've never left the ground because we treat you like dirt!" SNL Parady ad circa 1981
 
RussianJet
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RE: $1.00 For Gallon Of Gasoline Soon.

Mon Dec 08, 2008 10:43 pm



Quoting PHLBOS (Reply 3):
Does a duck quack?

It depends - not if it has a sore beak.

I pay around $2 per litre at the moment. You US residents really don't know you're born when it comes to paying for fuel!  duck 
✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
 
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EA CO AS
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RE: $1.00 For Gallon Of Gasoline Soon.

Tue Dec 09, 2008 6:31 am



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 27):
I would get used to cheap gas for a while - all one needs to do is look at history.

History repeats itself, and gas has reached huge peaks, like in 1981, only to collapse shortly thereafter and not go back up for years and years and years.

Cheap gas is here to stay, IMO.

 checkmark 

Every major recession over the past 30 years has been preceded by an oil shock. The recession in 1991 had crude skyrocketing to (then) unheard-of levels, only to collapse once demand cratered.

As it has now.

FWIW, crude oil was trading at $13.00/bbl in 1998. Is that reasonable to expect now? Probably not, no - but $25-30.00/bbl is probably reasonable to expect within two months, with prices stabilizing in the low to mid $40s for at least a year, if not longer.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

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