lxa333
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EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sat Dec 13, 2008 2:50 pm

Its only a question of time due to the EURs stability. Slowly the US is deteriorating overall and losing ground as world economic supreme leader to the EU even though most of our citizens would deny it. NYC for example, has lost prominence to London on a major scale when it comes to trading equity. Also, some countries in the EU are trying to work harder by implementing new laws such as the one Sarkozy tried to pass which tried to extend working hours for the french. I see a very strong Europe in the future and I am happy that all europeans are getting over their differences as an ethnic european.



http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/mginews/rise_of_the_euro.asp
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dtwclipper
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sat Dec 13, 2008 3:16 pm

Your link is from 3.08....things have changed just a bit since then on both sides of the Atlantic. I'm not sure if your prediction is very relevant now.
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Dougloid
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sat Dec 13, 2008 3:44 pm



Quoting Dtwclipper (Reply 1):
Your link is from 3.08....things have changed just a bit since then on both sides of the Atlantic. I'm not sure if your prediction is very relevant now.

I think the brother has been, as we say, Out of Touch With World Events. A lot of people in NYC and London are currently trading unemployment checks not equity. Mr. Baroque relates elsewhere the following joke that's making the rounds:

Moe: What does 'confidence in the financial markets' mean?
Joe: I dunno. What does it mean?
Moe. That's when you iron five shirts on Sunday evening.
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
lxa333
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sat Dec 13, 2008 4:04 pm

Out of touch haha, I dont think so. I live in New York and I volunteer in the financial industry. Unemployment is going on everywhere, but its going on in the US at higher rate. Unemployment is now, almost 7 percent in the USA. So, I guess you're saying that, just like that out of nowhere 0 equity is being traded. Nice. I definitely can rely on you, Dougloid. These kind of things(Global reserve preference) are really really long-term, when the economy bounces back up things will resume, not perhaps the way they were before.
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MarSciGuy
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sat Dec 13, 2008 4:14 pm

You think unemployment is lower in the EU?!
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lxa333
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sat Dec 13, 2008 4:15 pm

No, the developed EU countries, the original ones in western europe. If we count Bulgaria etc. Different story.

[Edited 2008-12-13 08:17:14]
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Dreadnought
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sat Dec 13, 2008 6:17 pm



Quoting LXA333 (Thread starter):
Slowly the US is deteriorating overall and losing ground as world economic supreme leader to the EU even though most of our citizens would deny it.

As a single country, the US is still on top of the heap. As far as the dollar is concerned, of course the Euro is going to be very competitive, since the concept of "reserve currency" is directly related to the GDP produced by economies that use that currency. The The US GDP last year was $13.8 trillion, vs $14.4 trillion for all EU countries put together (including Britain and other countries that do not use the Euro). So it's close, but not quite there.

Quoting LXA333 (Thread starter):
NYC for example, has lost prominence to London on a major scale when it comes to trading equity.

Mainly due to Sarbanes-Oxley, which should be largely repealed.

Quoting LXA333 (Thread starter):
Also, some countries in the EU are trying to work harder by implementing new laws such as the one Sarkozy tried to pass which tried to extend working hours for the french.

i.e. away from Socialism.

Quoting LXA333 (Thread starter):
I see a very strong Europe in the future and I am happy that all europeans are getting over their differences as an ethnic european.

No question, it is good news - I have nothing against a strong Europe.

Quoting MarSciGuy (Reply 4):
You think unemployment is lower in the EU?!

http://www.bls.gov/fls/flsjec.pdf

US Unemployment (and I expect EU as well) has spiked in the past couple of months, but is generally lower.
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dtwclipper
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sat Dec 13, 2008 6:21 pm



Quoting LXA333 (Reply 5):
No, the developed EU countries,

And have you checked out the inflation situation in the EU? Have you seen the headlines about government aide to finical institutions in the EU?



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Dougloid
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sat Dec 13, 2008 6:41 pm



Quoting LXA333 (Reply 3):
I live in New York and I volunteer in the financial industry.

Well, thats simple then. You don't live in the United States and you don't work there either.

Also, I think perhaps you're trolling, shall we say, interested in starting another brushfire war here?

Well, you're a bit late to the dance if that's your game. We had this discussion all year.

Quoting LXA333 (Reply 5):
No, the developed EU countries, the original ones in western europe. If we count Bulgaria etc. Different story.

Oh, but I thought it was one big happy family, you know, room under the Big Tent For All? Do you mean to suggest that....there's a decided difference in ....equality of stature in the EU?
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wardialer
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sat Dec 13, 2008 7:50 pm

And dont forget, Europe is MORE stable economically than the US.
US is still a sinking ship compared to Europe and the US Dollar will not exist at all.

The US is so much in debt right now due to bailing out the banks (or who knows will be next), that the US will run out of money and the US will soon have to convert to the EU currency.
 
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DocLightning
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sat Dec 13, 2008 8:16 pm



Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 6):

As a single country, the US is still on top of the heap.

You can't think of it that way anymore. You have to think of it as a single economy. The EU has transcended the idea of a sovereign nation by uniting the economies of all the members.

And as a unified economy, the EU has a larger GDP than the U.S.

The U.S. empire is falling. The patriots refuse to acknowledge it. That's part of what the GOP of the last decade was trying to do; hide the collapse of the U.S.A. by invading countries and waving flags and crosses around.

But even the Bible preaches that pride is a sin, and with good reason. When the money ran out and people were suddenly without places to live, they found that all that pride didn't buy a warm place to stay or food to eat or medicine to treat their ills.

Acknowledging your weaknesses, swallowing your pride, is the only way to save any semblance of the greatness of the U.S. Our global empire is going the way of the British Empire, that much is sure. And yet, there is a way to rescue ourselves, much as the British did by joining the EU.

The next great empire will not be China or India; it will be a unified Europe.
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lxa333
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sat Dec 13, 2008 8:21 pm

As for the latest unemployment statistics, I know whats going on everyday where I work as an intern. 6.7 %, soon to be 7 meaning that above 21 million people are unemployed.

http://www.wfmz.com/view/?id=586425

And Dougloid, I know the new eastern european countries count, but do they really in major problem solving? When it comes to those problems Germany usually plays the major role in the EU from what I've seen.

And as for the in-debt thing, 2 months go there was no more space in Times Square to put a 17th digit to signal that we're in tens of trillions of debt. Horrible.

And as for, Europe being the next empire, I'll be damn happy as long as its not a "speculative" nation like China.

[Edited 2008-12-13 12:23:05]
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Phoenix9
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sat Dec 13, 2008 8:30 pm



Quoting DocLightning (Reply 10):
The U.S. empire is falling. The patriots refuse to acknowledge it. That's part of what the GOP of the last decade was trying to do; hide the collapse of the U.S.A. by invading countries and waving flags and crosses around.

Put on your flame suit Doc...


Back on topic: Please correct me if I am wrong, I thought most of the modern currency transactions did not rely on gold reserves and the world economy has separated itself from having enough currency to match the gold reserves of the country. Given the global growth in past couple of decades, there is probably not enough gold to match the total world currency.

As long as the oil trade is done in US dollars, it would be hard to have EUR take over it.
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geekydude
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sat Dec 13, 2008 8:41 pm



Quoting LXA333 (Reply 11):
And as for, Europe being the next empire, I'll be damn happy as long as its not a "speculative" nation like China.

Honestly, I don't think China will be become the next superpower. For all the fear-mongering rhetorics, I do not really care if China can surpass the US or any other country in terms of GDP or any other measure. But I do care if the people, all the poor people, can be fed properly, can have access to basic healthcare, can receive basic education, can excerise more freedom, et etc, in the future. It might be presumptuous of me, but I believe most ordinary people in China share my view.


But just out of curiosity, please define "speculative"?
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Klaus
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sat Dec 13, 2008 9:08 pm



Quoting DocLightning (Reply 10):
The next great empire will not be China or India; it will be a unified Europe.

The thing is that the United Europe does not try to become an "empire". Empires are basically built on authoritarian rule by a central power. Europe works primarily by creating functioning infrastructures and is relatively successful at that. The emphasis is no longer(!) on the exploitation of others but on their integration in stable and self-sustaining political and economic systems.

But of course there is also still a bunch of major problems, some internal, some external, such as the infamous (but at least much reduced) agricultural subsidies which undercut the viability of farmers even in the third world.

Quoting Phoenix9 (Reply 12):
As long as the oil trade is done in US dollars, it would be hard to have EUR take over it.

There is a school of thought which associated the Iraq invasion with Saddam's (economically excellent) decision to switch over from the Dollar to the Euro as denominational currency. Unfortunately the longer-term consequences of the Iraq war will probably help bring about the demise of the Dollar as at least the exclusive oil currency.

The Iraq invasion has started several tectonic shifts away from the previously still existing "post-war order", and the total dominance of the Dollar is one of the things which will most likely cease to exist not too far from now.

Quoting Geekydude (Reply 13):
Honestly, I don't think China will be become the next superpower. For all the fear-mongering rhetorics, I do not really care if China can surpass the US or any other country in terms of GDP or any other measure. But I do care if the people, all the poor people, can be fed properly, can have access to basic healthcare, can receive basic education, can excerise more freedom, et etc, in the future. It might be presumptuous of me, but I believe most ordinary people in China share my view.

For all its currency reserves now, the chinese government will have a hard time keeping its population happy through a major worldwide economic slump, but they have no choice but to attempt it anyway, which in itself is not the worst possible thing. We can only hope it will lead to improvements especially for the poorest people and to a liberation on the political level at some point.
 
Dougloid
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sat Dec 13, 2008 10:54 pm



Quoting Geekydude (Reply 13):
Honestly, I don't think China will be become the next superpower. For all the fear-mongering rhetorics, I do not really care if China can surpass the US or any other country in terms of GDP or any other measure. But I do care if the people, all the poor people, can be fed properly, can have access to basic healthcare, can receive basic education, can excerise more freedom, et etc, in the future. It might be presumptuous of me, but I believe most ordinary people in China share my view.

Do you ever watch P.O.V. (Point of View), Mr. Dude? They had one recently called Up the Yangtze and it was stunning. It started out with a Chinese American wanting to make a travel documentary but ended up with the story of a very poor family. Mr. Yu was a farmer who squatted on a piece of land along the river where he could farm and feed his family. One of his daughters went to work on a river cruise boat for tourists. Mr. Yu was a peasant from Fujian, and he was seen as something of a hillbilly. Looking at him struggling to feed and clothe his family and knowing that he is probably younger than me was ....I was pretty much speechless. Hard work had literally worn him out.



http://www.pbs.org/pov/filmarchive.php

Quoting LXA333 (Reply 11):
And Dougloid, I know the new eastern european countries count, but do they really in major problem solving? When it comes to those problems Germany usually plays the major role in the EU from what I've seen.

Well, what problems are you talking about?

Quoting LXA333 (Reply 11):
As for the latest unemployment statistics, I know whats going on everyday where I work as an intern. 6.7 %, soon to be 7 meaning that above 21 million people are unemployed.

http://www.wfmz.com/view/?id=586425

And Dougloid, I know the new eastern european countries count, but do they really in major problem solving? When it comes to those problems Germany usually plays the major role in the EU from what I've seen.

And as for the in-debt thing, 2 months go there was no more space in Times Square to put a 17th digit to signal that we're in tens of trillions of debt. Horrible.

And as for, Europe being the next empire, I'll be damn happy as long as its not a "speculative" nation like China

You've got a great future in Europe, I think. You'll find plenty of fellow travelers there.

You underestimate China, I think. I think Mr. Dude will tell you that there are no people in the world who can work harder than the Chinese. Every one I met who'd come over to take delivery of one of our airplanes at Douglas were no nonsense, get the job done people, and not a cork sniffer among them either.

Fact is, they remind me a lot of Americans before they began to doubt themselves. Get used to it-this is their century, not ours.
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
Klaus
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preferen

Sat Dec 13, 2008 11:11 pm



Quoting Dougloid (Reply 15):
Fact is, they remind me a lot of Americans before they began to doubt themselves. Get used to it-this is their century, not ours.

That can't be – this is the japanese century as we all know since the 1980s, isn't it...?  mischievous 

Hype and reality. Im not sure they're even step siblings.
 
Cubsrule
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sat Dec 13, 2008 11:24 pm



Quoting LXA333 (Reply 5):
No, the developed EU countries, the original ones in western europe. If we count Bulgaria etc. Different story.

Depending on what numbers you use, I see France between 7 and 8%. Germany was 7.5% in November. Britain is around 6%. Belgium is between 7 and 8. Shall I go on?
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Acheron
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sat Dec 13, 2008 11:35 pm



Quoting Phoenix9 (Reply 12):
As long as the oil trade is done in US dollars, it would be hard to have EUR take over it.

In the next few meetings, the OPEC plans to discuss switching to the Euro as the preferred currency for oil trading with the organization.
 
Klaus
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preferen

Sat Dec 13, 2008 11:36 pm



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 17):
Depending on what numbers you use, I see France between 7 and 8%. Germany was 7.5% in November. Britain is around 6%. Belgium is between 7 and 8. Shall I go on?

It should be noted that different countries use significantly different methods for determining the respective levels of unemployment.
 
lxa333
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sat Dec 13, 2008 11:56 pm



Quoting Dougloid (Reply 15):
Well, what problems are you talking about?

I'm talking about voting power in the EU and how the "big 4" control most of the power in it, particularly Germany as I stated before. If they oppose anything they have the power to reject whatever law. I'm not against it, but all of the other smaller EU countries want to play a role too.



As for China being the next superpower, I don't even think it will be the one after due to future implosion within the economy/the ability not to control it, if you want to consider it a Soviet style superpower in which most of the GDP is put into Military expenditures or any other department then yes they can be strong in that aspect.

As for the EU being the next superpower, not anytime soon in my opinion, because its GDP per capita is almost 14k per capita less now than the US. On top of that there are going to be countries within a few years that will join that are very weak compared to European standards( basically the whole western balkans). The US still dominates and continually will until a later date when all of Europe is developed.
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Alessandro
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sun Dec 14, 2008 12:13 am

I think gold is the winner, €uro and US$ can slough it out for 2nd and 3rd spot.
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Klaus
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preferen

Sun Dec 14, 2008 12:27 am



Quoting LXA333 (Reply 20):
I'm talking about voting power in the EU and how the "big 4" control most of the power in it, particularly Germany as I stated before. If they oppose anything they have the power to reject whatever law. I'm not against it, but all of the other smaller EU countries want to play a role too.

You are quite mistaken about how the EU works.

At this point, every one of the 27 member countries has a veto!

Which means a significant imbalance to the disadvantage of the more populous countries — my vote as a german citizen has only a fraction of the weight the vote of a luxembourgeois citizen does, for instance.

It is more the rule than the exception that one of the smaller countries threatens to block decisions if they don't get special concessions from the bigger ones.

Even the proposed Lisbon treaty was to preserve significant influence for the smaller countries so the large ones would never be able to push through anything if the smaller ones were against it.

It's actually a pretty sweet deal for the smaller countries and it will remain so. Which is fine with me, but a universal veto for everyone is just destructive when it applies to pretty much every decision.
 
Cubsrule
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sun Dec 14, 2008 4:12 am



Quoting Klaus (Reply 19):
It should be noted that different countries use significantly different methods for determining the respective levels of unemployment.

 checkmark That's absolutely true. Even where I've seen corrected numbers, though, I've never seen unemployment being lower on the Continent-- IIRC, you need to add 1-1.5% to French and German numbers to 'convert' them to American numbers (but it's been a while-- that might not be right).
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Dougloid
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sun Dec 14, 2008 4:26 am



Quoting Klaus (Reply 16):
That can't be – this is the japanese century as we all know since the 1980s, isn't it...?   

Hype and reality. Im not sure they're even step siblings.

I do seem to recall hearing that from somebody, although I do not remember whom. Well, we hosed 'em good with Radio City. Maybe those yanquis were a bit smarter than those japanese fellows gave them credit for, perhaps?





 Wink

Quoting LXA333 (Reply 20):
Quoting Dougloid (Reply 15):
Well, what problems are you talking about?

I'm talking about voting power in the EU and how the "big 4" control most of the power in it,

OK, fella. You've got the floor. I'm finished with EU politics for a while.


 bomb 
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geekydude
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sun Dec 14, 2008 4:38 am

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 15):
Do you ever watch P.O.V. (Point of View), Mr. Dude? They had one recently called Up the Yangtze and it was stunning. It started out with a Chinese American wanting to make a travel documentary but ended up with the story of a very poor family.

Thanks for the link. I will check it out. But I can imagine the life of a poor Chinese peasant. Despite an oppulant facade tourists often see in Beijing, Shanghai, or Hongkong, the majority of the peasantry have yet to completely come out of poverty. The progress is undeniable, but problems abound too. But everywhere you go, you can't but be impressed about the resilence and the hard work of the people, who are determined to make their lives better against all odds.

Quoting LXA333 (Reply 20):
As for China being the next superpower, I don't even think it will be the one after due to future implosion within the economy/the ability not to control it, if you want to consider it a Soviet style superpower in which most of the GDP is put into Military expenditures or any other department then yes they can be strong in that aspect.

Come for a visit, my friend. It won't take long before you notice it's everything but Soviet here! It's free market capitalism like you've never seen before. But I agree with you that it will be a long long way before China can be world leading economic power, if at all.

[Edited 2008-12-13 20:41:05]
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Dougloid
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sun Dec 14, 2008 5:03 am



Quoting Geekydude (Reply 25):
Thanks for the link. I will check it out. But I can imagine the life of a poor Chinese peasant. Despite an oppulant facade tourists often see in Beijing, Shanghai, or Hongkong, the majority of the peasantry have yet to completely come out of poverty. The progress is undeniable, but problems abound too. But everywhere you go, you can't but be impressed about the resilence and the hard work of the people, who are determined to make their lives better against all odds.

It was really interesting. Mr. Yu had been chased out of his village because his father had gotten sideways with the Red Guards and he found this chunk of riverbank and built a shack that he and his wife and kids lived in. Of course you know that family is everything and he and his family were not part of the local village because they hadn't lived there for hundreds of years. Mr. Yu tended his farm and worked in a quarry and on road building. of course part of the story was that the river took his farm away because of the 3 gorges dam.

The real contrast was between the people of the older generation who were very reserved and modest, and the young folks who were pretty self centered. Mr. Yu's daughter got a job on the riverboat and kept it but others did not pass probation.....there is this weeding out and selecting that seems to be an undercurrent in your country.

It was an excellent film and I do hope you get to see it-it will be like home movies, I think.
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
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Tugger
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sun Dec 14, 2008 5:41 am



Quoting LXA333 (Reply 11):
As for the latest unemployment statistics, I know whats going on everyday where I work as an intern. 6.7 %, soon to be 7 meaning that above 21 million people are unemployed.

You don't know what's going on.
"6.7 %, soon to be 7 meaning that above 21 million people are unemployed"? Uh, no. I'm guessing you are using the entire population of the USA as the employment level but that is incorrect and impossible. Currently in the USA there is a labor pool of ~154,000,000 (based on BLS info) and ~144,000,000 are employed which means 10,000,000 are unemployed and that is your 6.7%.
http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/data.exe/blsln/lns12000000
http://www.economagic.com/blslf.htm

The world having two reserve currencies is a good thing, it doesn't mean the USA is in decline, it means the the EU is doing well and has its economic house in order.

Tugg
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geekydude
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sun Dec 14, 2008 6:02 am



Quoting Tugger (Reply 27):
You don't know what's going on.
"6.7 %, soon to be 7 meaning that above 21 million people are unemployed"? Uh, no. I'm guessing you are using the entire population of the USA as the employment level but that is incorrect and impossible. Currently in the USA there is a labor pool of ~154,000,000 (based on BLS info) and ~144,000,000 are employed which means 10,000,000 are unemployed and that is your 6.7%.

That's correct. Pick an introductory Macroeconomics textbook and you will see that the umemployment rate is calculated as the ratio of the number people that are umemployed to the size of the labor force (not the entire population or even the adult population).

Urate= umemployed/labor force.

To qualify as umemployed, you need to be out of work, but you must be actively looking for work as well. So if you don't have a job, but you're looking for one either, then you're a "discouraged worker", and cannot be counted as umemployed or in the labor force.

The labor force is simply the sum of people who are employed and those who are umemployed.

So using the entire population to calculate the unemployment is grossly incorrect.
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mham001
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sun Dec 14, 2008 6:36 am

I've been hearing disinterested analysts say that Europe and Britain in particular, are going to be hit much harder than the US in this downturn. They don't have a cross to bear, they just said that if we think we have it hard, watch the other side. I have no sources, all talk on the radio.
 
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DocLightning
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sun Dec 14, 2008 6:38 am



Quoting Klaus (Reply 14):

The thing is that the United Europe does not try to become an "empire". Empires are basically built on authoritarian rule by a central power. Europe works primarily by creating functioning infrastructures and is relatively successful at that. The emphasis is no longer(!) on the exploitation of others but on their integration in stable and self-sustaining political and economic systems.

Which is precisely why Europe is going to develop a truly great empire; because they are doing it sustainably.
-Doc Lightning-

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ual777
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sun Dec 14, 2008 7:16 am



Quoting Wardialer (Reply 9):


And dont forget, Europe is MORE stable economically than the US.
US is still a sinking ship compared to Europe and the US Dollar will not exist at all.

The US is so much in debt right now due to bailing out the banks (or who knows will be next), that the US will run out of money and the US will soon have to convert to the EU currency.

Thats just stupid.

Quoting LXA333 (Reply 11):


As for the latest unemployment statistics, I know whats going on everyday where I work as an intern. 6.7 %, soon to be 7 meaning that above 21 million people are unemployed.

See the two above. That NYU degree must not teach much on economics.
It is always darkest before the sun comes up.
 
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SKAirbus
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sun Dec 14, 2008 7:56 am



Quoting DocLightning (Reply 30):
Which is precisely why Europe is going to develop a truly great empire; because they are doing it sustainably.

In europe there is far less scaremongering going on which is reducing in higher job cuts etc... Although the credit crunch has caused an economic slowdown it has been made far worse psychologically... people are made to believe that the economy is crashing and burning and therefore stop spending completely... It's sad really..
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Flighty
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sun Dec 14, 2008 8:30 am

The thing about the dollar that nobody seems to get is: the lower it goes, the stronger its upward pressure gets. This is a naturally balanced system. There is very little to read into dollar or Euro values.
 
wardialer
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sun Dec 14, 2008 8:45 am

What will happen to the US, is that there going to convert to EUROS really soon, because the US dollar will just not exist anymore.

People dont believe me here, but thats the fact.
 
Flighty
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preferen

Sun Dec 14, 2008 8:48 am



Quoting SKAirbus (Reply 32):
Although the credit crunch has caused an economic slowdown it has been made far worse psychologically... people are made to believe that the economy is crashing and burning and therefore stop spending completely... It's sad really..

Well, this recession is an endless source of entertainment, talk, and common purpose for us Americans. Although it is basically the story of a housing correction -- not a Holocaust, not even an epidemic -- just a housing correction. People who can't pay, are being kicked out of the bank-owned homes where they have been staying. This is all very interesting to American viewers, who are desperately bored and looking for something to watch on TV.

Without the media aspect, yes there is precious little to talk about. These are normal economic times. But, by calling it supremely remarkable, we can elevate our discussion and truly believe we are living in remarkable times. Of course, it isn't true, but there you have it. Free media and popular elections cater to our whims.

Now, we are constructing a story about how we Americans are poor and doomed. It is a compelling storyline, one that begs to be explored in our imaginations. Of course, in truth, we are very rich and our future is probably just fine. But the human mind gets carried away, paranoid, etc sometimes, and the problem here is, our media gets paid to cater to our paranoia, nurture it and make it grow. We have become enthralled by the notion of poverty and deprivation, because we have never experienced it.

After all the illusions, many people solemnly declare that we are now back in 1932, when America was rather poor. Of course, today we are insanely, incredibly rich, and unemployment is fairly OK, and the stock market is down, but otherwise, yeah it's 1932.  Confused  Confused
 
wardialer
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sun Dec 14, 2008 8:55 am

By next year, the US will eventually convert to EUROS because the Dollar is falling and is very unstable.

People here dont believe me, but thats the truth. The dollar has no value anymore and will not exist in the close future.
 
Klaus
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sun Dec 14, 2008 10:55 am



Quoting DocLightning (Reply 30):
Which is precisely why Europe is going to develop a truly great empire; because they are doing it sustainably.

Now if you could only get rid of that "empire" misnomer...!  cool 

Quoting SKAirbus (Reply 32):
people are made to believe that the economy is crashing and burning and therefore stop spending completely... It's sad really..

Not here, at least not now. The christmas shopping season seems to be going quite well.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 33):
The thing about the dollar that nobody seems to get is: the lower it goes, the stronger its upward pressure gets. This is a naturally balanced system. There is very little to read into dollar or Euro values.

That is a piece of conventional wisdom from simpler times, which we don't have any more.

"Upward pressure" requires an imbalance which seeks to even itself out again. It is not a magical thing, it depends on the actual performance of the economy backing the currency (including the actions of the central bank). If that performance doesn't warrant it, there will be no upwards pressure.

I am not saying that the Dollar couldn't see upwards pressure again, but it is more complex than you make it out to be.

Quoting Wardialer (Reply 34):
What will happen to the US, is that there going to convert to EUROS really soon, because the US dollar will just not exist anymore.

People dont believe me here, but thats the fact.

Where again was that troll repellant...?  mischievous 

Quoting Tugger (Reply 38):
Quoting Acheron (Reply 18):
In the next few meetings, the OPEC plans to discuss switching to the Euro as the preferred currency for oil trading with the organization.

They will not ever lock themselves into a single currency again if they "unlock" from the Dollar. Bet on it.

We're not talking about a lock-in. We're talking about the preferred currency, with probably a basket of others available as well.
 
Alessandro
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sun Dec 14, 2008 1:30 pm



Quoting Wardialer (Reply 36):



By next year, the US will eventually convert to EUROS because the Dollar is falling and is very unstable.

People here dont believe me, but thats the truth. The dollar has no value anymore and will not exist in the close future.

I doubt it, but I think more and more people will go for gold instead. The €uro zone is growing very slowly, Slovakia is next.
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Dougloid
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sun Dec 14, 2008 8:01 pm



Quoting Ual777 (Reply 31):
Quoting LXA333 (Reply 11):


As for the latest unemployment statistics, I know whats going on everyday where I work as an intern. 6.7 %, soon to be 7 meaning that above 21 million people are unemployed.

See the two above. That NYU degree must not teach much on economics.

This country boy does not work for free. That ought to tell you the value of the work and the alleged education that led up to it.

My old man always said that money talks and bullshit walks.

If a man's work is valuable someone will pay for it in greenbacks, not wolf cookies.




 Wink
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
Flighty
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sun Dec 14, 2008 9:08 pm



Quoting Tugger (Reply 38):
but with a population of 1 billion still at subsistence levels, that trillion c

Exactly... a trillion bucks for them is $1,000 per person!! Really not much money by American standards.

Anyway, I am glad that China has some money now. They need some money to fix their problems. Good for them, having earned it (not stolen or begged for it). Good for them.
 
johns624
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sun Dec 14, 2008 10:07 pm



Quoting Wardialer (Reply 34):
What will happen to the US, is that there going to convert to EUROS really soon, because the US dollar will just not exist anymore.

People dont believe me here, but thats the fact.

It's a FACT?  laughing  A fact is something which has been proven. Where is your proof?
In the real world, the Euro is the number 3 currency in the world, behind the Dollar and the Pound. Why do I say that ? Simple. If I'm in the middle of BFE and the feces hits the rotating object, and I have to bribe and pay my way back home, which currency do you think the locals will insist on? That's right, dollars or pounds!
 
Klaus
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sun Dec 14, 2008 10:18 pm



Quoting Johns624 (Reply 43):
In the real world, the Euro is the number 3 currency in the world, behind the Dollar and the Pound.

You're kidding, right? The Pound's backing economy is so small by comparison to either the USA or the Eurozone that it is a relatively speculative reserve currency to use by any external investor or central bank – you can round out a portfolio with it, but you can't build anything long-term on it since it is relatively sensitive to external pressures. Emotional attachment is one thing, but that's not how this works.
 
PPVRA
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sun Dec 14, 2008 10:56 pm

The dollar became world reserve currency as a result of the undoing of the Bretton Woods System. That system pegged the USD to gold, and other currencies to the USD. When this was undone (1971 by Nixon), this world wide pseudo-gold standard was left with a dollar standard.

Arguably this status has been damaging to the US dollar so I would warn the EU about the dangers underlying a "global reserve currency". Regardless, it would be a much steeper climb to achieve the status of "sole" reserve currency without the help of another agreement similar to Bretton Woods, like the dollar had.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
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DocLightning
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sun Dec 14, 2008 11:08 pm



Quoting Klaus (Reply 39):

Now if you could only get rid of that "empire" misnomer...! cool

Hegemony?  duck 

Quoting Flighty (Reply 33):
The thing about the dollar that nobody seems to get is: the lower it goes, the stronger its upward pressure gets. This is a naturally balanced system. There is very little to read into dollar or Euro values.

All currencies gain and lose strength and all empires eventually fall. There is not a single "empire" that has survived continually since the dawn of civilization. The Roman empire, one of the greatest, survived about a thousand years. The U.S.A. isn't even 250 years old.

However, this new European "empire" is something completely unprecedented. It's not based on conquest or absorption. It's based on voluntary accretion. The EU basically says "This us our organization, this is how we live, this is how we run our economy. We'll show you everything. If you want to join we'll help you develop your own economy so that you can participate in ours."

The result? Spain was, 35 years ago, a third-world dictatorship. My mother grew up there without a floor, without water, without electricity. Today Spain is the world's 8th largest economy and Europe's fifth largest.

And with a track record like that, a lot of countries are flocking to voluntarily join Europe's new "empire."
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
Klaus
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sun Dec 14, 2008 11:11 pm



Quoting DocLightning (Reply 46):
Hegemony?

You are mocking me, are you not?  eyebrow 
 
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fxramper
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sun Dec 14, 2008 11:11 pm

When my folks moved to Portugal in 2000 the US dollar got like a 1.25 Euro exchange.  Sad
 
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DocLightning
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Sun Dec 14, 2008 11:26 pm



Quoting Klaus (Reply 47):

You are mocking me, are you not? eyebrow

I would never...  Wink
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
Klaus
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Mon Dec 15, 2008 12:16 am



Quoting DocLightning (Reply 49):
I would never...

Ah. Okay. Then you're excused.
 
johns624
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RE: EUR To Overtake USD As Global Reserve Preference

Mon Dec 15, 2008 12:19 am



Quoting Klaus (Reply 44):
You're kidding, right? The Pound's backing economy is so small by comparison to either the USA or the Eurozone that it is a relatively speculative reserve currency to use by any external investor or central bank – you can round out a portfolio with it, but you can't build anything long-term on it since it is relatively sensitive to external pressures. Emotional attachment is one thing, but that's not how this works.

Read my example. So much about money IS emotional. That's why no matter how much the rest of the world dislikes the US or UK, they'll always want dollars and pounds.

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