AverageUser
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Arctic Sea Ice Update

Wed Jul 22, 2009 8:44 am

Ok, it's that time of the year again: the race of the sun vs the thinning ice. We've bust most recorded years already, and for the moment it seems we're tracking in between the record low 2007 and the past year. Anything can happen though, the ice is thin and the margins large.

The graph below autoupdates daily:

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent.png
 
baroque
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Wed Jul 22, 2009 2:21 pm



Quoting AverageUser (Thread starter):
Ok, it's that time of the year again:

Thank you AU, I was just beginning to think I should wonder how it was going. Swimmingly, as the polar bear said to its cub! Mind you I have trouble with colourful graphs like that being red green colour blind and all, but eventually I found the incomplete grey line (in joke that will be appreciated by all the other RG colour blind folk!). Wonder why 2006 headed so far S and then recovered, are the reasons for that known?

I presume the amount of multi year ice is less than ever.
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Wed Jul 22, 2009 2:57 pm

Actually the lime colored line (2007) seems to be the lowest point, with the llue ((2003) and light blue (2004) line seem to be the highest points. It looks like the red (2009) line is tracking about half way between the lowest and highest points, and is going to end up above the orange (2008) line, too.

Quoting Baroque (Reply 1):
I presume the amount of multi year ice is less than ever.

The lowest point on the graph (mid September) shows a high point of about 6.1 million square kilometers of ice in 2003 and a low point of about 4.2 million square kilometers of ice in 2007. If this graph follows the roughly same track as past years, it looks like mid September we will have about 5 million square kilometers of ice in the Artic Ocean.

So, if this trend is correct, the Artic is cooling agin this year.

Quoting Baroque (Reply 1):
Wonder why 2006 headed so far S and then recovered, are the reasons for that known?

Yes, it is at least thought that because there was more snow than normal in Sept. 2005 thru March 2006 (which normally indicates warmer temps in the Artic), then got colder than normal from about mid March 2006 thru August 2006, and stayed colder until about November 2006. At least that is NOAAs theory.

Quoting AverageUser (Thread starter):
Anything can happen though, the ice is thin and the margins large.

Actually, from this chart, you can only tell how much surface area the ice covers, not how thick, or thin it is. Usually, for the ice cap surface area to be accurately tracked, it is thick enough to drive heavy trucks onto the surface, about 1 meter (39") thick, or more. There are only two ways to accurately measure the thickness of the ice, one is to drill core samples and measure the lenght, the other is using an ice penetrating radar pulled behind a pick-up truck.
 
AverageUser
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Wed Jul 22, 2009 4:58 pm



Quoting Baroque (Reply 1):
Wonder why 2006 headed so far S and then recovered, are the reasons for that known?

The NSIDC had this commentary of the year 2006:
However, air temperatures dipped a bit lower in August. "August broke the Arctic heat wave and slowed the melt, and storm conditions led to wind patterns that tend to spread the existing ice over a larger area," Serreze said. Then, in September, temperatures returned to the above-normal pattern.
2006 link

Wind patterns as the reason sounds plausible, after all sea ice is very much afloat, and the effects of the wind would go either way of course.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 2):
Actually, from this chart, you can only tell how much surface area the ice covers, not how thick, or thin it is.

That is an understood. The amplitude of the yearly phase seems to me to be increasing, which I'd interpret as an indication of thin "easy come -- easy go" type of ice.
Better folks than myself have drawn a chart on this:

http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20090406_Figure5.png




Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 2):
So, if this trend is correct, the Artic is cooling agin this year.

Would not bet all my farm animals on it just yet -- and then as you said, this is just the area we're seeing. (NSICD)

http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20090706_Figure3.png
 
dxing
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Wed Jul 22, 2009 6:00 pm



Quoting AverageUser (Thread starter):
We've bust most recorded years already

Wow, 30 years, that's certainly a long long time. Remind me, how long has it been since just the last ice age?
Warm winds blowing, heating blue skies, a road that goes forever, I'm going to Texas!
 
baroque
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Thu Jul 23, 2009 4:30 am



Quoting DXing (Reply 4):
Quoting AverageUser (Thread starter):
We've bust most recorded years already

Wow, 30 years, that's certainly a long long time.

Yr complaint is only partly valid, the winter and summer ice limits had been plotted - albeit much less accurately - for a long time. I certainly have maps going to 1940 - wonder why 1940!!!! More interestingly, there was little mention of systematic changes in those limits even though changes might well have occurred.

Quoting AverageUser (Reply 3):
The amplitude of the yearly phase seems to me to be increasing, which I'd interpret as an indication of thin "easy come -- easy go" type of ice.
Better folks than myself have drawn a chart on this:

Nice chart and certainly suggests that older thicker ice is even more on the wane than the Sept areal extent. And  Big grin maps and charts that are great for the colour blind.  Big grin

Quoting AverageUser (Reply 3):
Would not bet all my farm animals on it just yet -- and then as you said, this is just the area we're seeing. (NSICD)

One thread type we never seem to have had is least squares (or any other of the multitude of criteria) curve fitting!!  beady  Back to the cooling since 1998 sterile argument - NOT!!!! One of our locals stats folks had bothered to do the stats on overall temps since the hot year and worked out what you could prove by taking various origins. Interestingly, he still got warming with the hot year as the zero year. Unfortunately it was not a program with transcripts. Mind you it is not really a highly exhausting exercise to do. But all my tuits* are square this week!!!


* There are two basic kinds of tuit, square tuits and round tuits - as in when I get a round to it.
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Thu Jul 23, 2009 3:41 pm



Quoting DXing (Reply 4):
Remind me, how long has it been since just the last ice age?

The last full blown ice age (where glasures extended down to approximately a line from Washington, DC to St. Louis, MO to Denver, CO to San Francisco, CA on the North American continent) was about 11,000 years ago.

There was a "mini ice age" from about 1300 AD to about 1650 AD. Temps in Europe plummeted and the Vikings were forced to abandon settlements in Greenland.

Quoting AverageUser (Reply 3):
Better folks than myself have drawn a chart on this:

I don't understand how they determine the age of ice as 1, 2, 3, or more years old. I know that very old sea ice (more than 100 years old) haave leaced out all of the salt content. But, as I understand it, it is very difficult to determine the sea ice salt content of ice less than about 30 years old, because of minor variations in salt content in the ocean waters.

Quoting Baroque (Reply 5):
Nice chart and certainly suggests that older thicker ice is even more on the wane than the Sept areal extent.

This colored chart, with seasonal symbols may help my friend. Even though each season has a different color, they are also on different levels and have different symbols.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosph...AGES/seasonal.extent.1900-2007.jpg

As you can see, annual, winter, autum, and spring ice levels between about 1900 and 1953 remain relitively constant. Summer ice levels are all over the place.

Between about 1953 and 1998, there is a slight decline in annual, winter, autum and spring levels. Then in 1998 there is an increase spike in winter and spring ice levels while autum and summer (and as a result annual) levels drop.

There is amajor decline in all levels between 2005 and 2007, but in 2008 to current, spring ice levels seem to level off, winter and summer levels increase. Of course there would be no data, yet for the autum of 2009, thus no annual average.

It seems to me the summer ice level lines are not really a good indicator, as the line varies greatly. The Winter, autum, spring, and annual lines seem to reflect more reliable data.
 
baroque
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Thu Jul 23, 2009 4:07 pm



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 6):
This colored chart, with seasonal symbols may help my friend. Even though each season has a different color, they are also on different levels and have different symbols.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosph...AGES/seasonal.extent.1900-2007.jpg

As you can see, annual, winter, autum, and spring ice levels between about 1900 and 1953 remain relitively constant. Summer ice levels are all over the place.

It must be "help the handicapped week" - even without the symbols those colours are clear. Off topic, it is not that RG colour blind folk cannot see colours, it is that it is difficult to distinguish some colours. Basically if the colour distinction depends on a small amount of red submerged as it were in some other colour, we dont see a thing.

Back again on the ice (used to be a keen skater too) summer extent takes a turn down in 1954 then a shelf before falling off just after 1970. And that jump in winter ice in 1998 is associated with a fairly low summer which is also an inflexion point for the present trend towards lack of (summer) ice. I did know how multi year ice is determined, it certainly shows in thickness, ah here it is:
http://nsidc.org/seaice/characteristics/multiyear.html
Multiyear ice has distinct properties that distinguish it from first-year ice, based on processes that occur during the summer melt. Multiyear ice contains much less brine and more air pockets than first-year ice. Less brine means "stiffer" ice that is more difficult for icebreakers to navigate and clear.

AND
First-year and multiyear ice have different electromagnetic properties that satellite sensors can detect,

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 6):
It seems to me the summer ice level lines are not really a good indicator, as the line varies greatly. The Winter, autumn, spring, and annual lines seem to reflect more reliable data.

Depends what you are looking for. It appears that so far, the Arctic is able to develop similar sized ice sheets in mid winter, but once that summer extent drops, most is AU's "easy come, easy go" ice and when it is gone, this has major implications for the heat uptake in the high latitudes during the long summer days. If the upper layers of the ocean get sufficiently warm that will eventually start to restrict winter ice growth.

I have not seen much on the southerly N Atlantic deep current recently, it was reported as slowing.
 
AverageUser
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Thu Jul 23, 2009 4:19 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 7):
Off topic, it is not that RG colour blind folk cannot see colours, it is that it is difficult to distinguish some colours.

I got an idea on that: a button switchbox for VGA computer monitors that swaps the red, green and blue signal lines in different combinations. Quite simple to implement. I'd think in most cases using the monitor's blue channel in lieu of the red or the green would make the hard-to-see colour combinations different enough to the rg-axis chromatically challenged persons.

Below should be some pics of a Finnish ice road. The "official" requirement is 110 cm of solid ice, but the best they could "engineer" and freeze up that winter was 90 cm, and the truckload is therefore not quite full (100% = 48 tons I think). Lack of frost has made caused a lot of trouble for foresting here lately, but this winter there were two old-fashioned months.

http://www.metsafi-lehti.fi/index.php?action=article-getImage&article-imageId=980

http://www.metsafi-lehti.fi/index.php?action=article-getImage&article-imageId=982

[Edited 2009-07-23 09:43:23]
 
baroque
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Fri Jul 24, 2009 5:01 am



Quoting AverageUser (Reply 8):
I got an idea on that: a button switchbox for VGA computer monitors that swaps the red, green and blue signal lines in different combinations. Quite simple to implement. I'd think in most cases using the monitor's blue channel in lieu of the red or the green would make the hard-to-see colour combinations different enough to the rg-axis chromatically challenged persons

Interesting thought. However a combination of colours chosen for separation in the Y to Blue and ensuring that both the area coloured and the key boxes have sufficient area. "Colour" that appear obscure in a what the butler tried to see presentation can become clear if a bit larger.

I presume in the top pic the machine is pumping water from below the ice?? I guess that is quicker than waiting for heat flow through the ice. In the relief of Leningrad they just waited for natural thickening IIRC.

A whole different world. The only ice we get around here is in the freezer or the once every two or three year thunderstorm with hail.
 
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Fri Jul 24, 2009 3:59 pm



Quoting Baroque (Reply 9):
I presume in the top pic the machine is pumping water from below the ice?? I guess that is quicker than waiting for heat flow through the ice

Yep, that's the idea. The story here here has smoe illustrations of the device which combines the pump and the ice auger. According to the story one can begin roadbuilding in at least -10 C, and then a layer of 2 cm of ice can be added bi-daily, up to 5 cm daily on colder weather.


Quoting Baroque (Reply 9):
In the relief of Leningrad they just waited for natural thickening IIRC.

With the light weight of their equipment artificial thickening probably would not have helped much, they would have needed to form the snow walls to contain the water, and any snowfall needs to be removed (by the present standards) as layers of slush make ice weak.
 
baroque
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Fri Jul 24, 2009 4:46 pm



Quoting AverageUser (Reply 10):
Quoting Baroque (Reply 9):
In the relief of Leningrad they just waited for natural thickening IIRC.

With the light weight of their equipment artificial thickening probably would not have helped much, they would have needed to form the snow walls to contain the water, and any snowfall needs to be removed (by the present standards) as layers of slush make ice weak.

Now that I know from a couple of weeks spent skating on heavy snow, part melted and refrozen so we had about 4 cms ice, 1 cm water and then under that about 8 cms of the first ice to form. As the thaw developed, it was not so difficult to hole through into the middle water layer of ice - but that was much better than going right through. One of my youthful triumphs was rescuing (with a hockey stick) a dog that fell through the ice while I was skating on the thicker part!!

Interesting stuff ice.

Quoting AverageUser (Reply 10):
The story here here has some illustrations of the device which combines the pump and the ice auger. According to the story one can begin roadbuilding in at least -10 C, and then a layer of 2 cm of ice can be added bi-daily, up to 5 cm daily on colder weather.

Neat system. Obvious once you think about it, but came as a surprise. I see what you mean about heavy equipment. I had not thought of the Russian stuff as light, but compared with that lot, well yes!! But narrow tyres too. Not to mention the Germans bombing holes in the ice.

Then there was project Habakkuk.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Habakkuk

Winnie was dead keen at one stage. Maybe it could be reinvented if lack of Arctic ice becomes a problem. No it cannot be called Bear Island, there is already one of those!!
 
baroque
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Sat Jul 25, 2009 10:01 am

This rather argues that the chances for a "record" year are high

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/wa...-seas-on-record-20090724-dw6c.html

Global ocean surface temperatures for June were the highest since records began, in 1880, breaking the record set in 2005, the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration of the United States says.

The average sea surface temperature for June, measured by satellites and buoys, was 0.59 degrees above the 20th-century average of 16.4 degrees.

The combined land and sea temperature was the second warmest on record, behind 2005. The US agency is one of three international groups that supply data to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.


But what happens to the ice will depend too upon winds.
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Sat Jul 25, 2009 3:27 pm



Quoting Baroque (Reply 7):
I have not seen much on the southerly N Atlantic deep current recently, it was reported as slowing.

The latest I found was this 13 may 2009 report from the Woods Hole Institute in Massachusetts.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2009-05/whoi-sfs051309.php

Quoting AverageUser (Reply 8):
Below should be some pics of a Finnish ice road. The "official" requirement is 110 cm of solid ice, but the best they could "engineer" and freeze up that winter was 90 cm, and the truckload is therefore not quite full (100% = 48 tons I think).

So, your requirements for an ice road are 5.5", but the best that could be done was about 4.5"? Is this road on a river, lake, or ocean?

In Canada and Alaska, ice thickness is usually required to be 1 meter (about 39")over fresh water, or about 1.1 m to 1.2 m (about 44") over salt water (salt water freezes about 28F or -3C). Of course the trucks could have a gross weight up to 200,000 lbs (about 90.9 tonnes). Ice over land needs to be 4" (10cm) thick to protect the permafrost.

Quoting Baroque (Reply 12):
The average sea surface temperature for June, measured by satellites and buoys, was 0.59 degrees above the 20th-century average of 16.4 degrees.

The combined land and sea temperature was the second warmest on record, behind 2005. The US agency is one of three international groups that supply data to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Since this is an "el Nino" year, I would expect a slight warmer ocean average. In "la Nina" years, the average ocean temps are slightly cooler.

As far as the UN-IPCC is concerned, they are not very truthful in releasing all the data they collect or receive for outside agancies. The IPCC is more of a political organization than a scientific one.

I doubt the average temps effect the ice increases or decreases each year. What would effect them more is the average Arctic Ocean temp, which in the summer month, has an average temp around 29-30F (-1 to -1.5C).

Sorry the colored chart with the K temp. ranges on it are so hard to read, because the lines are very thin. But, the other charts should be useful.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/06/2...-record-keeping%E2%80%A6%E2%80%9D/
 
David L
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Sat Jul 25, 2009 3:52 pm



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 13):
Quoting AverageUser (Reply 8):
Below should be some pics of a Finnish ice road. The "official" requirement is 110 cm of solid ice, but the best they could "engineer" and freeze up that winter was 90 cm, and the truckload is therefore not quite full (100% = 48 tons I think).

So, your requirements for an ice road are 5.5", but the best that could be done was about 4.5"? Is this road on a river, lake, or ocean?

110 cm = 1.1 m = 43.3"
90 cm = 0.9 m = 35.4"
 
baroque
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Sat Jul 25, 2009 3:58 pm



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 13):
Quoting AverageUser (Reply 8):
Below should be some pics of a Finnish ice road. The "official" requirement is 110 cm of solid ice, but the best they could "engineer" and freeze up that winter was 90 cm, and the truckload is therefore not quite full (100% = 48 tons I think).

So, your requirements for an ice road are 5.5", but the best that could be done was about 4.5"? Is this road on a river, lake, or ocean?

You might find that 110 cm is really quite close to a metre, a bit more really. You could be confusing his ice with a 105 mm calibre gun perhaps??
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Sun Jul 26, 2009 12:01 am



Quoting David L (Reply 14):
Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 13):
Quoting AverageUser (Reply 8):
Below should be some pics of a Finnish ice road. The "official" requirement is 110 cm of solid ice, but the best they could "engineer" and freeze up that winter was 90 cm, and the truckload is therefore not quite full (100% = 48 tons I think).

So, your requirements for an ice road are 5.5", but the best that could be done was about 4.5"? Is this road on a river, lake, or ocean?

110 cm = 1.1 m = 43.3"
90 cm = 0.9 m = 35.4"



Quoting Baroque (Reply 15):
You might find that 110 cm is really quite close to a metre, a bit more really. You could be confusing his ice with a 105 mm calibre gun perhaps??

Oops. me bad and put the decimal point in the wrong place. I confused 110 cm with 1.10 cm.

I know better than that, but screwed it up anyway.  banghead   banghead   banghead 

Baroque, did you find those charts useful?

Sorry the colored chart with the K temp. ranges on it are so hard to read, because the lines are very thin. But, the other charts should be useful.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/06/2...-record-keeping%E2%80%A6%E2%80%9D/

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 13):
Quoting Baroque (Reply 7):
I have not seen much on the southerly N Atlantic deep current recently, it was reported as slowing.

The latest I found was this 13 may 2009 report from the Woods Hole Institute in Massachusetts.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releas...9.php

 
Pyrex
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Sun Jul 26, 2009 3:13 am



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 2):
the other is using an ice penetrating radar pulled behind a pick-up truck.

Wouldn't an ice radar pushed IN FRONT OF a pick-up truck be more... humm... safe? Big grin
Read this very carefully, I shall write this only once!
 
baroque
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Sun Jul 26, 2009 7:11 am



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 16):
I know better than that, but screwed it up anyway. banghead banghead banghead

But think of all the joy you gave to a whole heap of folk!!!  bigthumbsup   bigthumbsup   bigthumbsup  Why has the "reply text" in Firefox gone so small yesterday and today? My typing looks like a (small) spiders track.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 16):

Baroque, did you find those charts useful?

Sorry the colored chart with the K temp. ranges on it are so hard to read, because the lines are very thin. But, the other charts should be useful.


Probably useful but more a conundrum. Then again, we do tend to progress from one conundtrum to the next. And still thinking about them, no real problems with the colours. The plateau does look odd, but I guess you would want to see another couple of weeks of it. Presumably it means something, but what!!! Still room for plenty of melting at the plateau temp but not as much as if it followed the curve, presumably.

Actually I was partly stopped in my tracks partly by realising that while it is very common knowledge that an El Nino is building, someone forgot to tel the SOI about it all. So the SOI has gone from about -15 in June to a latest value I have of +12 (smoothed so don't get that excited about variability). But it will be interesting to see where the SOI is in a week or two. Surely we cannot find the SOI decoupled from El N? That would really put a few cats among a flock of unhappy pigeons. Or maybe rumours of an El Nino are a bit premature.
 
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TheRedBaron
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Mon Jul 27, 2009 1:06 am

The best seat in a Plane is the Jumpseat.
 
AverageUser
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Mon Jul 27, 2009 9:07 am

Greetings from on and around liquid Finnish ice! Forest berry picking & mosquito feeding time was great as well!

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 13):
So, your requirements for an ice road are 5.5", but the best that could be done was about 4.5"? Is this road on a river, lake, or ocean?

These ice roads are private roads for timber trucks, and the idea is that they will carry on to the factory without reloading or unloading. Such ice roads afaik are almost exclusively built on lake ice in order to gain access to the timber on islands and possibly other inaccessible places. (Some public ice roads for lighter loads are built regularly on sweet and brekish water, conditions permitting.) Forested areas in the most of Finland are densely covered by small high-capacity roads, ice roads supplement the system in small part.

The reason why "only" 90 cm was achieved in this case was due to physics and the wall calendar. There's only so much water you can successfully pump on ice, time over temp, and taking into account the two months' building time, you may want to get going with the transportation while you still have your road.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 13):

In Canada and Alaska, ice thickness is usually required to be 1 meter (about 39")over fresh water, or about 1.1 m to 1.2 m (about 44") over salt water (salt water freezes about 28F or -3C). Of course the trucks could have a gross weight up to 200,000 lbs (about 90.9 tonnes).

I was unable to find a reference to 91 tons driving on a 100 cm iceroad in Alaska . The ice surely can't be that different to allow twice the Finnish max load, even when we take some load distribution into account?

Quoting Baroque (Reply 11):
Then there was project Habakkuk.

Interesting idea indeed, and one that seemed to be quickly ruined by prevaricating and over-engineering.
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Mon Jul 27, 2009 3:20 pm



Quoting Pyrex (Reply 17):
Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 2):
the other is using an ice penetrating radar pulled behind a pick-up truck.

Wouldn't an ice radar pushed IN FRONT OF a pick-up truck be more... humm... safe?

Perhaps, but I have only scene it done towing a small trailer based ice radar behind the pick-up.

Quoting Baroque (Reply 18):
Actually I was partly stopped in my tracks partly by realising that while it is very common knowledge that an El Nino is building, someone forgot to tel the SOI about it all.

Isn't that usually the case?

Quoting AverageUser (Reply 20):
Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 13):

In Canada and Alaska, ice thickness is usually required to be 1 meter (about 39")over fresh water, or about 1.1 m to 1.2 m (about 44") over salt water (salt water freezes about 28F or -3C). Of course the trucks could have a gross weight up to 200,000 lbs (about 90.9 tonnes).

I was unable to find a reference to 91 tons driving on a 100 cm iceroad in Alaska . The ice surely can't be that different to allow twice the Finnish max load, even when we take some load distribution into account?

An episode on the History Channel's "Ice Road Truckers" last year showed trucks removing a 103 ton (206,000 lbs) gas well drilling rig from the ocean ice near the end of the season, before the ice melted to thin. The main portion of the derrick drill rig was suspended on two trucks tractors (one on one end, pulling both trucks and the rig), the other truck tractor suspended the other end of the derrick, and provided additional steering. The total weight did not include the weight of the two trucks, one had 10 tires, the second had 12 tires (two steering axils).
 
baroque
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Mon Jul 27, 2009 3:38 pm



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 21):
Quoting Baroque (Reply 18):
Actually I was partly stopped in my tracks partly by realising that while it is very common knowledge that an El Nino is building, someone forgot to tel the SOI about it all.

Isn't that usually the case?

You mean the normally forget, or +12 is normal for an El Nino?? You would expect -10 to -20 for an El Nino, which is where it was before it suddenly climbed. That should mean that the winds are getting stronger and will pile water up in the W Pac, which is not what is supposed to happen in an El Nino. Which I why I will not get excited until there is another couple of weeks of higher SOI values. +12 would normally come with a La Nina and colder weather in the US.

Quoting AverageUser (Reply 20):
Quoting Baroque (Reply 11):
Then there was project Habakkuk.

Interesting idea indeed, and one that seemed to be quickly ruined by prevaricating and over-engineering.

Wonder if anyone will propose a new Habakkuk to replace the summer ice if it all vanishes??!!!!
 
AverageUser
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Mon Jul 27, 2009 4:56 pm



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 21):
An episode on the History Channel's "Ice Road Truckers" last year showed trucks removing a 103 ton (206,000 lbs) gas well drilling rig from the ocean ice near the end of the season,

I thought that the reference must have come from that reality show, but I think we don't know the thickness of the ice nor how the weight over area of the special transport translates into standard truckloads -- so ice physics would still remain the same everywhere in the arctic/subarctic zones!
 
baroque
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Thu Aug 06, 2009 3:52 pm

Looks as if the curve is following 2008 so far, but it also looks as if 2007, 2008 and 2009 will form a group below earlier years??? Or is my colour sight causing problems?
 
baroque
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Fri Aug 14, 2009 10:25 am

Another week and the melt seems to be not as much as 2007, but melting glaciers seems to be the news of the week with stories from the Antarctic and N Greenland and the Barents sea.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8200770.stm

One of the largest glaciers in Antarctica is thinning four times faster than it was ten years ago, according to research seen by the BBC.

A study of satellite measurements of Pine Island glacier in west Antarctica reveals the surface of the ice is now dropping at a rate of up to 16m a year.


At around the 1.30" mark, it has footage of a Greenland glacier in retreat.

Two of our news programs showed the BEEB footage, but neither site had a link. However the BBC link was what I was looking for.

Those examples rather add to the Arctic ice story. The pattern of ice loss in the Antarctic glacier seems very odd, loss in the higher parts but not the lower. Maybe the upper part is undergoing more rapid movement, so the question might really be "will that spread to the CORK"?
 
AverageUser
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Mon Aug 24, 2009 5:06 pm

The wind conditions seem to have changed in the Arctic (see the NSIDC web site on the wind patterns), and the red and the green lines (2005) are no longer mysteriously entangled. Most likely the ice year 2009 will in end up in bottom three, but a placement in the bottom two is not excluded.
 
baroque
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Tue Aug 25, 2009 3:42 am



Quoting AverageUser (Reply 26):
The wind conditions seem to have changed in the Arctic

Yes, it has been interesting to follow the worm as it burrows its way down.
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Tue Aug 25, 2009 1:38 pm



Quoting Baroque (Reply 25):
At around the 1.30" mark, it has footage of a Greenland glacier in retreat.

Buty, haven't those glaciers been retreating for years? What I don't understand about the Greenland glaciers is the cafving along the coast line. Neither the CCG (Canadian Coast Guard), nor the USCG seem to report an increase in the number or size of icebergs along and south of the Canadian Maritime Provences. Both the CCG and USCG are charged with monitoring icebergs in that area to assure hazards to navigation doesn't end up in another RMS Titanic event.

Quoting Baroque (Reply 25):
Two of our news programs showed the BEEB footage, but neither site had a link. However the BBC link was what I was looking for.

Those examples rather add to the Arctic ice story. The pattern of ice loss in the Antarctic glacier seems very odd, loss in the higher parts but not the lower. Maybe the upper part is undergoing more rapid movement, so the question might really be "will that spread to the CORK"?

As you know, I always question anything reported by the BBC, can you also find other references? I think your assumptions about the Antarctic glaciers may be correct. That leads to the question, why isn't it snowing enough in the high mountains to not replenish the upper ends of the glaciers?
 
baroque
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Tue Aug 25, 2009 1:54 pm



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 28):
Quoting Baroque (Reply 25):
At around the 1.30" mark, it has footage of a Greenland glacier in retreat.

Buty, haven't those glaciers been retreating for years?

Yes, but not to that extent if you look at the maps, not that they were overly helpful with maps. At some stages I was not sure which end of the world we were at.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 28):
As you know, I always question anything reported by the BBC, can you also find other references? I think your assumptions about the Antarctic glaciers may be correct. That leads to the question, why isn't it snowing enough in the high mountains to not replenish the upper ends of the glaciers?

Well just tell us all who is better than the BEEB and I am sure we will all flock.

The failure of snowfall to make up the difference is simply due to the fact that the ice is dropping at rates way above what could be expected from snowfall. Don't forget the Antarctic is the driest continent, snowfall is actually very low. If the oceans add a bit of moisture that might take it to low rather than very low. But that ice has been falling of the order of a metre a year - no way snowfall is going to make that up. Presumably it is flowing into the neck of the bottle, which probably tells them something about ice temps to permit that rate of flow. Remember that rates of flow are dependent upon temp for any given level of stress. Until that is, a glacier gets a layer of water underneath. Then it can go ZIP.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 28):
Both the CCG and USCG are charged with monitoring icebergs in that area to assure hazards to navigation doesn't end up in another RMS Titanic event.

You might have the wrong area, some of those glaciers are round the N of Greenland. In olden times, this is not where the icebergs that Eric the Red's son used in his terror attacks came from!!
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Tue Aug 25, 2009 7:34 pm



Quoting Baroque (Reply 29):
The failure of snowfall to make up the difference is simply due to the fact that the ice is dropping at rates way above what could be expected from snowfall. Don't forget the Antarctic is the driest continent, snowfall is actually very low. If the oceans add a bit of moisture that might take it to low rather than very low. But that ice has been falling of the order of a metre a year - no way snowfall is going to make that up. Presumably it is flowing into the neck of the bottle, which probably tells them something about ice temps to permit that rate of flow. Remember that rates of flow are dependent upon temp for any given level of stress. Until that is, a glacier gets a layer of water underneath. Then it can go ZIP.

Thank you. I should have known that.

Quoting Baroque (Reply 29):
Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 28):
Both the CCG and USCG are charged with monitoring icebergs in that area to assure hazards to navigation doesn't end up in another RMS Titanic event.

You might have the wrong area, some of those glaciers are round the N of Greenland. In olden times, this is not where the icebergs that Eric the Red's son used in his terror attacks came from!!

Correct, but generally icebergs that break off the Greenland glaciers usually go north along the greenland coast to the Arctic Ocean near upper Baffin Island, then get caught by the Laberdor Current, which generally runs south along the Canadian Maritimes coast and into the Grand Banks area (east of New England and south of Newfoundland), where they get picked up agian by the Gulf Stream and normally go east into the Atlantic below Greenland Island. Sometimes it takes 2-3 years from the time an iceberg breaks off a glacier until it is into the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream or Grand Banks areas.

http://www.uscg-iip.org/General/mission.shtml
 
baroque
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Wed Aug 26, 2009 9:04 am



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 30):
Correct, but generally icebergs that break off the Greenland glaciers usually go north along the greenland coast to the Arctic Ocean near upper Baffin Island, then get caught by the Laberdor Current

I did not think they went right about the N end but certainly it is the Labrador current wot causes the problems. Then again, in past times, the Arctic ice did not melt around the N of Greenland either!! Which gets us back on topic!!
 
AverageUser
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Wed Aug 26, 2009 10:10 am

 
baroque
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Wed Aug 26, 2009 1:49 pm



Quoting AverageUser (Reply 32):
I remembered this old clip: http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...77869

Thanks, that is what I thought, most of the N Greenland ice shuffles off down the E coast. Ta!!
 
aircatalonia
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Sun Sep 06, 2009 9:00 am

It doesn't look too bad now. Hopefully September won't be too harsh on the ice.
 
baroque
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Sun Sep 06, 2009 9:07 am



Quoting AirCatalonia (Reply 34):
It doesn't look too bad now. Hopefully September won't be too harsh on the ice.

Yep, just worse than most years. So that will be OK!!
 
windy95
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Tue Sep 08, 2009 9:45 pm



Quoting Baroque (Reply 35):
Yep, just worse than most years. So that will be OK!!

Based on a thirty year average. Oh my
 
windy95
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RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Wed Sep 09, 2009 1:31 pm

Here are a few recent peer reviewed studies and other articles debunking the great man made Artic melt


Arctic Ice Changes in past 3 years due to 'shifting winds' - The Star Canada - July 28, 2009 - Excerpt: Oceanographer and Arctic researcher Jane Eert said "dramatic [Arctic ice] changes in the past three years are the result of shifting winds." "Enormous amounts of ice have 'been exported from the Arctic,' driven by winds that are shifting," according to Eert. Eert noted that climate models have many woes. "The guys who are running the long-term climate models have a tough problem," Eert says. "They're looking at really long time scales, and as result they can't look at a lot of details for each year. In order to get the results before you die, you have to fudge some things. And what they fudge is the small-scale stuff. But it turns out that probably the small-scale stuff is important and fudging it gives you wrong answers." [...] Jane Eert is science coordinator of the Three Oceans Project, a federal study of Canada's Arctic, Atlantic and Pacific oceans. [...] A physical oceanographer, Eert leads the scientific team aboard The Louis. It's her 10th voyage on the ship since 1999. Between 10 and 15 per cent of the Arctic Ocean is what Eert calls a data hole. It will take years' more research to fill it in with solid information, she adds. After years of reports that vast areas of Arctic ice are melting as the seawater below, and air above, warm up, scientists have discovered that dramatic changes in the past three years are the result of shifting winds, perhaps caused by climate change. Enormous amounts of ice have "been exported from the Arctic," driven by winds that are shifting as the climate changes, which pushed the ice into ocean currents that delivered it to the North Atlantic, Eert says. "The multi-year ice in the polar pack didn't melt in the Arctic Ocean,'' she says. "It moved out and what's left in the Arctic is thinner than it was." That doesn't mean some Arctic ice isn't disappearing altogether, just that the process is not as simple as some reports suggest, Eert says. Old ice that has shifted south from Greenland may have a counter-effect on the climate, which is just one of the many pieces of a very complex jigsaw puzzle that scientists are trying to piece together as they attempt to predict the effects of global warming.

North Pole expedition finds 'ice 100% thicker than expected' - April 28, 2009 - Excerpt: Surprising results - In Canada, "Polar 5", a research aircraft (see 27 hi-res pictures), has ended its recent Arctic expedition today. During the flight, scientists were measuring the ice thickness in regions that have never been overflown before. The result: the sea ice is apparently thicker than the scientists had suspected. Under normal conditions, the ice is formed within two years and ends up being slightly above 2 meters of thickness. "Here, the thickness was as high as four meters," said the spokesperson for the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in Bremerhaven. According to the scientists, this conclusion seems to contradict the warming of the ocean water.

Danish Meteorological Institute records show: No Arctic Warming Since 1958! - 'Arctic was warmer in the 1940s than now' - May 13, 2009 - Excerpt: The Danish Meteorological Institute has records going back to 1958 and GISSTEMP has even longer records. Below is a visual comparison of DMI 1958 Arctic temperatures vs. 2009, showing that temperatures have hardly changed since the start of their record.[...] Below is an overlay directly showing that 2009 temperatures (green) are similar to 1958 (red) and close to the mean. Temperatures have warmed since the start of the satellite record, but they cooled even more between 1940 and 1980. Everyone (including NSIDC) quietly acknowledges that most of the Arctic was warmer in the 1940s than now – so they shift the warming argument to the Alaska side. However, that argument also has problems. Alaska temperatures rose at the positive PDO shift in 1977, and have cooled again with the recent negative PDO shift – as seen below. 2008 was notable in that Alaska glaciers started to increase in size.


New Arctic Study published in Climate Dynamics, and the work was conducted by Håkan Grudd of Stockholm University's Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology - Published online: 30 January 2008 - Excerpt: “The late-twentieth century is not exceptionally warm in the new Torneträsk record: On decadal-to-century timescales, periods around AD 750, 1000, 1400, and 1750 were all equally warm, or warmer. The warmest summers in this new reconstruction occur in a 200-year period centred on AD 1000. A 'Medieval Warm Period' is supported by other paleoclimate evidence from northern Fennoscandia, although the new tree-ring evidence from Tornetraäsk suggests that this period was much warmer than previously recognised.” < > “The new Torneträsk summer temperature reconstruction shows a trend of -0.3°C over the last 1,500 years.” Paper available here: & Full Paper (pdf) available here:

UK Met Office: Arctic Ice Changes 'Could Easily be Due to Natural Fluctuations in the Weather' - Feb. 11, 2009 - Excerpt: The scientists at the UK Met Office lamented the “recent 'apocalyptic predictions' about Arctic ice melt,” according to the UK Guardian newspaper. Dr. Vicky Pope, head of climate change advice at the Met Office, warned that “there is little evidence to support claims that Arctic ice has reached a tipping point and could disappear within a decade or so,” according to the UK Guardian. "The record-breaking losses in the past couple of years could easily be due to natural fluctuations in the weather, with summer ice increasing again over the next few years," Pope explained. Pope's Arctic ice view echoes the 2008 U.S. Senate Minority Report on Arctic sea ice and polar bears. The January 20, 2008, report featured “the latest peer-reviewed science detailing the natural causes of recent Arctic ice changes.” Climate researcher Dr. Peter Stott echoed Pope, warning that “dramatic predictions of accelerating temperature rise and sea ice decline, based on a few readings, could backfire when natural variability swings the other way and the trends seem to reverse,” the paper reported. "It just confuses people,” Stott added. Despite these attacks on the claims of their fellow scientists and the media, both Pope and Stott continue to believe that man-made global warming is real and should be addressed, in contrast to a growing number of scientists who now believe "the ­science has, quite simply, gone awry."

A NASA study published in the peer-reviewed journal Geophysical Research Letters on October 4, 2007 found “unusual winds” in the Arctic blew "older thicker" ice to warmer southern waters. Despite the media's hyping of global warming, Ignatius Rigor, a co-author of the NASA study, explained, “While the total [Arctic] area of ice cover in recent winters has remained about the same, during the past two years an increased amount of older, thicker perennial sea ice was swept by winds out of the Arctic Ocean into the Greenland Sea. What grew in its place in the winters between 2005 and 2007 was a thin veneer of first-year sea ice, which simply has less mass to survive the summer melt.” [...] “Unusual atmospheric conditions set up wind patterns that compressed the sea ice, loaded it into the Transpolar Drift Stream and then sped its flow out of the Arctic,” said Son Nghiem of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and leader of the study. (LINK)

A November 2007 peer-reviewed study in the journal Nature found natural cause for rapid Arctic warming. Excerpt: [The study] identifies a natural, cyclical flow of atmospheric energy around the Arctic Circle. A team of researchers, led by Rune Graversen of Stockholm University, conclude this energy flow may be responsible for the majority of recent Arctic warming. The study specifically rules out global warming or albedo changes from snow and ice loss as the cause, due to the “vertical structure” of the warming ... the observed warming has been much too weak near the ground, and too high in the stratosphere and upper troposphere. This study follows hot on the heels of research by NASA, which identified “unusual winds” for rapid Arctic ice retreat. The wind patterns, set up by atmospheric conditions from the Arctic Oscillation, began rapidly pushing ice into the Transpolar Drift Stream, a current which quickly sped the ice into warmer waters. A second NASA team, using data from the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite, recently concluded that changes in the Arctic Oscillation were, “mostly decadal in nature,” rather than driven by global warming. (LINK) & (LINK) & (LINK)

A January 2008 study in the peer-reviewed journal Science found North Atlantic warming tied to natural variability. Excerpt: A Duke University-led analysis of available records shows that while the North Atlantic Ocean's surface waters warmed in the 50 years between 1950 and 2000, the change was not uniform. In fact, the sub-polar regions cooled at the same time that subtropical and tropical waters warmed. This striking pattern can be explained largely by the influence of a natural and cyclical wind circulation pattern called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), wrote authors of a study published Thursday, January 3 in Science Express, the online edition of the journal Science. Winds that power the NAO are driven by atmospheric pressure differences between areas around Iceland and the Azores. “The winds have a tremendous impact on the underlying ocean,” said Susan Lozier, a professor of physical oceanography at Duke's Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences who is the study's first author. [...] “It is premature to conclusively attribute these regional patterns of heat gain to greenhouse warming,” they wrote. (LINK)

A November 2007 peer-reviewed study conducted by a team of NASA and university experts found cyclical changes in ocean currents impacting the Arctic. Excerpt: “Our study confirms many changes seen in upper Arctic Ocean circulation in the 1990s were mostly decadal in nature, rather than trends caused by global warming,” said James Morison of the University of Washington's Polar Science Center Applied Physics Laboratory in Seattle, according to a November 13, 2007 NASA release. Morison led the team of scientists using data from an Earth-observing satellite and from deep-sea pressure gauges to monitor Arctic Ocean circulation from 2002 to 2006. Excerpt: A team of NASA and university scientists has detected an ongoing reversal in Arctic Ocean circulation triggered by atmospheric circulation changes that vary on decade-long time scales. The results suggest not all the large changes seen in Arctic climate in recent years are a result of long-term trends associated with global warming. [...] The team of scientists found a 10-millibar decrease in water pressure at the bottom of the ocean at the North Pole between 2002 and 2006, equal to removing the weight of four inches of water from the ocean. The distribution and size of the decrease suggest that Arctic Ocean circulation changed from the counterclockwise pattern it exhibited in the 1990s to the clockwise pattern that was dominant prior to 1990. Reporting in Geophysical Research Letters, the authors attribute the reversal to a weakened Arctic Oscillation, a major atmospheric circulation pattern in the northern hemisphere. The weakening reduced the salinity of the upper ocean near the North Pole, decreasing its weight and changing its circulation. [...] “While some 1990s climate trends, such as declines in Arctic sea ice extent, have continued, these results suggest at least for the 'wet' part of the Arctic – the Arctic Ocean – circulation reverted to conditions like those prevalent before the 1990s,” Morison added. (LINK)

NASA Study Blames Natural High Pressure Leading to More Sunny Days for Arctic Ice Reduction Excerpt: But elone to beat down. That created higher ocean temperatures, which in turn accelerated the melt. Son Nghiem, who led that NASA study on sea ice released this week, also pointed to unusual winds, which compressed sea ice, pushing it into the Transpolar Drift Stream and into warmer water where melting happened more quickly. (LINK)
xperts say it was the peculiar weather Mother Nature offered up last summer - whatever caused it - that is largely to blame for the recent unusual events. There was a high-pressure system that sat over the Arctic for much of the summer. It shooed away clouds, leaving the sun a


In Agust 2007 peer-reviewed study finds global warming over last century linked to natural causes: Published in Geophysical Research Letters: Excerpt: “Tsonis et al. investigate the collective behavior of known climate cycles such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, and the North Pacific Oscillation. By studying the last 100 years of these cycles' patterns, they find that the systems synchronized several times. Further, in cases where the synchronous state was followed by an increase in the coupling strength among the cycles, the synchronous state was destroyed. Then a new climate state emerged, associated with global temperature changes and El Niño/Southern Oscillation variability. The authors show that this mechanism explains all global temperature tendency changes and El Niño variability in the 20th century.” Authors: Anastasios A. Tsonis, Kyle Swanson, and Sergey Kravtsov: Atmospheric Sciences Group, Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, U.S.A. See August 2, 2007 Science Daily – “Synchronized Chaos: Mechanisms For Major Climate Shifts” (LINK)


Arctic Research Scientist Explains Natural Climate factors impacting Arctic Ice - Igor Polyakov at the University of Fairbanks, Alaska - Excerpt: October 2007: "One prominent researcher, Igor Polyakov at the University of Fairbanks, Alaska, points out that pulses of unusually warm water have been entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic, which several years later are seen in the ocean north of Siberia. These pulses of water are helping to heat the upper Arctic Ocean, contributing to summer ice melt and helping to reduce winter ice growth. Another scientist, Koji Shimada of the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, reports evidence of changes in ocean circulation in the Pacific side of the Arctic Ocean. Through a complex interaction with declining sea ice, warm water entering the Arctic Ocean through Bering Strait in summer is being shunted from the Alaskan coast into the Arctic Ocean, where it fosters further ice loss. Many questions still remain to be answered, but these changes in ocean circulation may be important keys for understanding the observed loss of Arctic sea ice."

UK Scientist details Natural causes of Arctic ice changes – By UK Professor Emeritus of Biogeography Philip Stott of the University of London - Excerpt: In the media, we hear a great deal about 'global warming', melting ice, and bereft polar bears and penguins. But, as you can guess, things are not quite so straightforward. Indeed, some scientists believe that the decline in the Arctic ice must be put down to regional and local events, and not to world average changes. Possible factors include warm water intrusions from the Pacific Ocean, and more recently from the Atlantic Ocean; undersea volcanic activity, particularly on the Gakkel Ridge, where a major eruption took place in 1999; and, albedo alterations brought about by soot pollution and the spread of tundra shrubs. Interestingly, similar Arctic 'warmings' have taken place before, and are recorded for the 1800s, for the 1930s, and for the 1950s. Current warming in Greenland does not appear to have reached the levels of these earlier events. Moreover, recent work has shown that particulate pollution from mid-latitudes can aggravate warming in the Arctic. [...] Yet, with global cooling now seemingly underway, the media appear to be even more desperate than usual to continue to hype up 'global warming', so expect lots more about the Arctic decline, drowning polar bears, and melting 'tipping points' to keep us plebs in thrall. You should, however, take it all with a pinch of oceanic salt. The reality is a great deal more subtle and far more complex, and I suspect that, in truth, we have very little notion of what is actually happening.

Not Global Warming: Winds are Dominant Cause of Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet Losses – October 3, 2008 - Excerpt: Two new studies summarised in a news article in Science magazine point to wind-induced circulation changes in the ocean as the dominant cause of the recent ice losses through the glaciers draining both the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, not 'global warming.' The two stuides referred to are: 'Acceleration of Jakobshavn Isbræ triggered by warm subsurface ocean waters' by Holland et al, published in Nature Geoscience. The Abstract states: Observations over the past decades show a rapid acceleration of several outlet glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica1. One of the largest changes is a sudden switch of Jakobshavn Isbræ, a large outlet glacier feeding a deep-ocean fjord on Greenland's west coast, from slow thickening to rapid thinning2 in 1997, associated with a doubling in glacier velocity3. Suggested explanations for the speed-up of Jakobshavn Isbræ include increased lubrication of the ice–bedrock interface as more meltwater has drained to the glacier bed during recent warmer summers4 and weakening and break-up of the floating ice tongue that buttressed the glacier5. Here we present hydrographic data that show a sudden increase in subsurface ocean temperature in 1997 along the entire west coast of Greenland, suggesting that the changes in Jakobshavn Isbræ were instead triggered by the arrival of relatively warm water originating from the Irminger Sea near Iceland. We trace these oceanic changes back to changes in the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region. We conclude that the prediction of future rapid dynamic responses of other outlet glaciers to climate change will require an improved understanding of the effect of changes in regional ocean and atmosphere circulation on the delivery of warm subsurface waters to the periphery of the ice sheets.


Meteorologist Craig James Debunks Myths about Northwest Passage Excerpt: The headline in this press release from the European Space Agency reads “Satellites witness lowest Arctic ice coverage in History.” (LINK) In history! That sounds like a long time. However, when you read the article you find “history” only goes back to 28 years, to 1979. That is when satellites began monitoring Arctic Sea ice. The article also says “the Northwest Passage - a long-sought short cut between Europe and Asia that has been historically impassable.” I guess these people flunked history class. It has been open several times in history without ice breakers. (LINK) The first known successful navigation by ship was in 1905. This is all very similar to the story on the NBC Nightly News Friday, 14 September 2007 where the story on water levels in Lake Superior never mentioned that the lowest recorded water level on the lake occurred in March and April 1926, when the lake was about 5 inches lower than it is now. Instead, NBC interviewed several people who could never remember seeing it this low and blamed most of the problem on global warming. Never mind that the area has seen below normal precipitation for several years and for most of this year has been classified as being in an extreme to exceptional drought. (LINK)

History of Northwest Passage - Navigated in 1905 and multiple times in 1940s (Note: 80% of man-made CO2 came after 1940) Excerpt: 2. ROALD AMUNDSEN: First Navigation by Ship 1905: In mid August, Amundsen sailed from Gjøahaven (today: Gjoa Haven, Nunavut) in the vessel Gjøa (LINK) [...] On August 26 they encountered a ship bearing down on them from the west, and with that they were through the passage. From Amundsen's diary: The North West Passage was done. My boyhood dream - at that moment it was accomplished. A strange feeling welled up in my throat; I was somewhat over-strained and worn - it was weakness in me - but I felt tears in my eyes. 'Vessel in sight' ... Vessel in sight. 3. ST. ROCH: First West-East Crossing 1940-1942: The St. Roch was given the task of demonstrating Canadian sovereignty in the Arctic. It was ordered to sail from Vancouver to Halifax by way of the Northwest Passage. The St. Roch left Vancouver in June 1940 and on October 11, 1942, it docked at Halifax - the first ship to travel from the Pacific to the Atlantic via the Northwest Passage. The journey had taken almost 28 months. 4. ST. ROCH: Northern Deep-Water Route (East-West) 1944: The St. Roch was the first ship to travel the Northwest Passage through the northern, deep-water route and the first to sail the Passage in both directions. (LINK)


New analysis finds Arctic ice reduction may be due to undersea volcanoes – June 26, 2008 -

Excerpt: Recent massive volcanoes have risen from the ocean floor deep under the Arctic ice cap, spewing plumes of fragmented magma into the sea, scientists who filmed the aftermath reported Wednesday. The eruptions - as big as the one that buried Pompei - took place in 1999 along the Gakkel Ridge, an underwater mountain chain snaking 1,800 kilometres (1,100 miles) from the northern tip of Greenland to Siberia. Scientists suspected even at the time that a simultaneous series of earthquakes were linked to these volcanic spasms. [...] Is it not possible that these volcanic eruptions - going back to at least 1999 - may have played a part in whatever melting there has been of the Greenland and Arctic ice sheets? [...] But isn't it funny how not one word of this possibility was ever mentioned in the original article? Why is that?


Was There Less Arctic Ice in 1932?

Excerpt: Arctic Becomes an Island for the first time in human history“...really??? On Dec 5, 1932, The New York Times reports the “feat, accomplished for the first time” of circumnavigation of Franz Josef Land (actually, an Arctic archipelago). The same expedition (lead by a Professor N.N. Subkov) was also described in March 1933 in the pages of Nature. Notably, in the words of the NYT, that circumnavigation had been “heretofore regarded as impossible“. It actually took just 34 days, from Aug 17. It was warm enough for the “Eva” and “Liv” islands to be recognized as one, joined by “a low stretch of land” and thereby renamed “Evaliv”. Fast forward to 2008. Cryosphere Today shows two tongues of ice still clinging to Franz Josef Land as of Aug 31. Prof. Subkov would not have been so lucky this time around.

Report: Arctic 'ice level in the 1920's, 30's and early 40's was at a similar low level' of today - September 10th, 2008

Excerpt: The ice level in the 1920's, 30's and early 40's was at a similar low level. The St. Roch went easily through the Northern route of the NW passage which is closed this year and that was in 1944. The HBC had many other boats freely navigating the southern route of the NW Passage. Gjoa Haven(1930) and Cambridge Bay(1929) pictures showing low ice level. A lot more info in that link. This little boat the Aklavik also made it through the NW Passage in 1937. Nascopie and Aklavik meet from East and West in 1937. The Nascopie commonly travelled through the passage in the 30's. This evidence is ignored by science, and it shows the conditions in the Arctic in the thirties were similar to today. And then in the late 40's the Arctic froze up and the HBC shut some of their posts due to the increased ice. What is called science has become an embarrassment.

National Snow and Ice Data Center admits Arctic ice melts from the "bottom"?

Excerpt: An admission from the alarmists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center: The buoy data have indicated increased amounts of melt on the underside of the ice cover in recent years; bottom melt last year was particularly extreme. ...In recent days, the buoys have indicated sub-freezing temperatures with surface melt coming to an end; however, bottom melt will continue for at least two to three more weeks and the ice extent decline, while slowing, will also continue. Regarding the credibility of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, see their laughable page entitled Accuracy of science in Gore's movie An Inconvenient Truth: TED: I think An Inconvenient Truth does an excellent job of outlining the science behind global warming and the challenges society faces in the coming century because of it. ... Where can I read more scientific reaction to the movie, especially about aspects of the science that you don't cover here? WALT: RealClimate.org, a non-profit, non-governmental site run by scientists, has a good entry on the movie.

Sea Ice in the Arctic Ocean – August 14, 2008 - By Physicist Dr. Syun-Ichi Akasofu, the former director of both University of Alaska Fairbanks' Geophysical Institute and International Arctic Research Center who has twice been named in "1000 Most Cited Scientists."

Excerpt: As mentioned earlier, the present rapid retreat of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean, particularly in 2007, is caused by the inflow of the warm North Atlantic water into the Arctic Ocean and the effects of winds. Figures 12a and 12b show results of the ocean monitoring effort by an international group, led by the International Arctic Research Center. This warm water is melting sea ice from the bottom. The resulting thin ice tends to break up easily by stormy water and is easily forced to flow by winds; nothing can move sea ice (which covers an area of the United States) in the Arctic Ocean, if it is a single plate. This was exactly what happened in the fall of 2007, resulting in a large recession of sea ice toward the Canadian side (some expected further shrinking in 2008, but that is unlikely). It was shown by Polyakov (2006) that this inflow is a quasi-periodic phenomenon, as shown in Figure 12c. Figure 12a: Inflow of warm North Atlantic water into the Arctic Ocean (Polyakov, 2006). 36 Figure 12b: Changes of seawater temperature at two locations in the Arctic Ocean. The warm water from the North Atlantic Ocean is flowing deeply into the Arctic Ocean (Polyakov et al., 2007). Figure 12c: Air temperature and various conditions of the Arctic Ocean between 1895 and 2000 (Polyakov et al., 2008). [...] Our conclusion at the present time is that much of the prominent continental Arctic warming and cooling in Greenland during the last half of the last century is due to natural changes, perhaps to multi-decadal oscillations like the Arctic Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the El Niño. This trend is shown schematically in Figure 1c as positive and negative fluctuations. If this is indeed the case, the IPCC Report is incorrect again in stating that the warming after 1975 is particularly caused by the greenhouse effect. The steep increase of the temperature after 1975 is likely to be a combined effect of the linear change and the oscillatory change, which had been positive during the recent few decades. In any case, this comparison gave us a new way to use GCM results to identify natural changes of unknown causes. [...] Unfortunately, at this time, many studies are focused only on climate change after 1975, because satellite data have become so readily available. A study of climate change based on satellite data is a sort of “instant” climatology. Based on satellite data, it is often reported that climate change is “unprecedented.” For example, although there are a number of reports on the condition of ice in Greenland these days, implying unprecedented changes, Chylek et al. (2006, 2007) reported that present changes of the Greenland ice sheet are smaller than changes observed during the 1920-1940 period.
 
baroque
Posts: 12302
Joined: Thu Apr 27, 2006 2:15 pm

RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Wed Sep 09, 2009 4:12 pm



Quoting Windy95 (Reply 37):
Here are a few recent peer reviewed studies and other articles debunking the great man made Artic melt

You really are a caution! I know it says peer reviewed at the top of the page, but they are all clippings from newspaper articles and it appears none is in a journal let alone peer reviewed. I assume you know what peer reviewed means??
 
baroque
Posts: 12302
Joined: Thu Apr 27, 2006 2:15 pm

RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Wed Sep 09, 2009 5:35 pm

Oops, my mistake, they do seem to have a couple of extracts from peer reviewed journals, but I still get the feeling that the excerpts are from newspapers. And proper references are not given.
 
aircatalonia
Posts: 529
Joined: Wed Nov 28, 2007 12:50 pm

RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Sat Sep 19, 2009 11:40 am

Looks like we passed the minimum already. A very early minimum, by the way.

[Edited 2009-09-19 04:42:15]
 
AverageUser
Topic Author
Posts: 1824
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2007 6:21 pm

RE: Arctic Sea Ice Update

Sat Sep 19, 2009 12:20 pm

No, 17 Sept is a quite ordinary date. The Arctic sea ice peaks and valleys take place in mid-March and mid-September, respectively.

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