slider
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What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

Wed Sep 30, 2009 5:16 pm

Follow my hypothesis here for a moment if you would.

Iran is nuclear and they’ve been pursuing dual-track nuclear energy and weapons for some time. They have or soon will have launch capability to lob a 2000 lb 15-kiloton or so warhead if they choose to.

I think Imanutjob is too much of a glory hound to actually USE them preemptively at present time (not that he wouldn’t) because he wants the spotlight and wants leverage. What better leverage than to SELL those assets to other states? So to my way of thinking, a nuclear Iran is a bad thing not solely because THEY have them, but because they might move them somewhere else.

So in the speculation of what to do about Iran, I ask you this:

What if they were to sell one to Hugo Chavez, for instance? What then becomes the strategic response?
 
flanker
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RE: What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

Wed Sep 30, 2009 5:20 pm

They are one of the biggest state sponsors of terrorism.
This is one of the major problems with them obtaining any sort of advancement.
It is why I cant believe that the west is just throwing empty words at them and stupid sanctions that really wont do anything
.
Maybe soon enough people are going to wake up. For one, Israel will not wait to be attacked.

If there is ever a war worth waging, it must this one. Iran with its current nutjob leaders is a threat not just to Israel, but to the whole world.
Calling an illegal alien an 'undocumented immigrant' is like calling a drug dealer an unlicensed pharmacist
 
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Aaron747
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RE: What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

Wed Sep 30, 2009 5:22 pm



Quoting Slider (Thread starter):
So in the speculation of what to do about Iran, I ask you this:

Bottom line: because of the possibilities you suggest as well as the destabilization of the Gulf that will result in nuclear proliferation on the Straight of Hormuz, their current efforts can not be allowed to continue, whether they are completely strangled economically or whether strategic bombing of their development sites is carried out. They will realize this soon enough - my only fear is that military action will once and for all end the fledgling reform movement there.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
BMI727
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RE: What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

Wed Sep 30, 2009 5:42 pm



Quoting Aaron747 (Reply 2):
their current efforts can not be allowed to continue

 checkmark  This is becoming a serious issue that we can no longer ignore.

Quoting Aaron747 (Reply 2):
my only fear is that military action will once and for all end the fledgling reform movement there.

The Gulf War actually helped spark a rebellion in Iraq. I was watching a TV show a while back where one of the anti-Sadaam people said essentially that they were trying to hold out for assistance from the Americans that never came.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
JFKMan
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RE: What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

Wed Sep 30, 2009 8:09 pm

We would be in deep trouble. This is one of my main worries.
AA - LGA
 
Springbok747
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RE: What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

Wed Sep 30, 2009 9:00 pm

Didn't Imanutjob meet with Zardari (president of Pakistan) recently? Who knows what they discussed? Maybe Pakistan is also 'sharing' its nuclear abilities? They definitely showed that sanctions do not work..as the Iranians are dispatching diplomatic missions to China, central Asia and Venezuela and stockpiling fuel and gas in case of winter shortages.

Iran has great influence among Middle East muslim countries. Iraq is shiite muslim like Iran and therefore natural if uneasy allies. There is no point in Iran harbouring ambitions to invade its neighbours. Such imperial ambitions have already ruined the US, the UK and NATO countries that have ground forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. The days of imperialism are over.

Israel may get away with a single surprise strike against Iran. Israel has no ability to fight a protracted war. Israel cannot conduct a ground war over that distance. In an aerial war Israel will have to overfly Jordan, Syria and Iraq to strike Iran, or overfly Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf to do the same. That means violating the sovereignty of several countries wihich will provide a perfect excuse for those countries and every other muslim country in the middle east and in the world to join forces to destroy Israel once and for all. Saudi Arabia cannot remain neutral and must join the muslim side lest their own government's survival be at risk. Israel then will know the meaning of real paranoia. For the rest of the world it is easy enough for Iran to scuttle a few supertankers in the Persian Gulf and something like half the world's supply of oil will be bottled up. The economies of industrialized countries of the West, including the US will grind to a halt. Further stress may ruin the West for decades during which time the rest of the world will catch up whereby whatever technological lead the West may have now will lose their relevance.

And then there are the so-called sanctions. It didn't work before and it won't work now. Empty threats only degrade the standing of the parties making the threats. And China gets to reap the rewards.
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RussianJet
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RE: What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

Wed Sep 30, 2009 9:07 pm



Quoting Slider (Thread starter):
Imanutjob



Quoting Springbok747 (Reply 5):
Imanutjob

Ahmadinejad.

I don't particularly like the guy either, but calling him that doesn't further the reasoned argument against his policy one little bit.
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mbmbos
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RE: What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

Wed Sep 30, 2009 9:49 pm

It seems we've had several posts recently that are designed to justify starting a war with Iran; Ahmadinejad is crazy, Iranian politicians are not rational, Iran will sell nukes to terrorists, Iran will "wipe Israel off the map" (by the way Ahmadinajad never said that), a nuclear Iran will upset the balance of power in the Middle East, Iran is building nuclear weapons (which has not yet been proven), this is a war of religions whether we like it or not...and the list goes on.

We're back to fear mongering and hysteria. We're back to painting a nation and a people as irrational and evil as a way to feel justified for attacking and possibly killing in huge numbers, all in the name of self defense.

I am concerned that neocons are more concerned about maintaining and propagating their ideology than actually maintaining peace and finding common ground with nations that are very different culturally and politically.

The subject of this thread seems particularly contrived. We're going to justify bombing nuclear and military facilities based on a "what if"? Why are we even discussing this when we haven't even begun to exercise other options? There is a whole lot of potential for turning things around in our relations with Iran. Looks like a majority of the people don't care for the mullahs in power. Based on some polling, the majority would happily give up their isotopes for open trading with the West. It won't be easy and nobody is saying it would be. But I think we need to focus on these things instead of threatening war at every turn.

There's such a thing as self-fulfilling prophecy. Keep rattling the sabers and, sure enough, you'll end up with war.
 
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RE: What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

Wed Sep 30, 2009 10:24 pm



Quoting MBMBOS (Reply 7):
Iran will "wipe Israel off the map" (by the way Ahmadinajad never said that)

Ahmadinejad's phrase was " بايد از صفحه روزگار محو شود " according to the text published on the President's Office's website, and was a quote of Ayatollah Khomeini. Ahmadinejad's statement should be translated as:

The Imam said that this regime occupying Jerusalem (een rezhim-e eshghalgar-e qods) must [vanish from] the page of time (bayad az safheh-ye ruzgar mahv shavad).

The Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) translates the phrase similarly, as "be eliminated from the pages of history."

http://memri.org/bin/articles.cgi?Pa...e=archives&Area=sd&ID=SP101305


TEHRAN (AFP) — Iran's hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Thursday called Israel a "stinking corpse" which is doomed to disappear as the Jewish state celebrated its 60th anniversary.

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5ix-viVGAnfS1RHJGzZHSGjnzDIXg

Clearly he is someone who wants Israel gone, i.e. 'off the map'. He may have not said those words directly but his intentions are clear.
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us330
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RE: What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

Thu Oct 01, 2009 12:02 am



Quoting Slider (Thread starter):
So to my way of thinking, a nuclear Iran is a bad thing not solely because THEY have them, but because they might move them somewhere else.

So in the speculation of what to do about Iran, I ask you this:

What if they were to sell one to Hugo Chavez, for instance? What then becomes the strategic response?

You aren't coming out of left field. That topic is on a lot of people's minds--the fear that Iran could become the A.Q. Khan for any militia or terrorist group, and that nuclear weapons could proliferate worldwide.

Quoting Aaron747 (Reply 2):
Bottom line: because of the possibilities you suggest as well as the destabilization of the Gulf that will result in nuclear proliferation on the Straight of Hormuz, their current efforts can not be allowed to continue, whether they are completely strangled economically or whether strategic bombing of their development sites is carried out. They will realize this soon enough - my only fear is that military action will once and for all end the fledgling reform movement there.


 checkmark  Very good summary

Quoting Springbok747 (Reply 5):
Iran has great influence among Middle East muslim countries. Iraq is shiite muslim like Iran and therefore natural if uneasy allies. There is no point in Iran harbouring ambitions to invade its neighbours..

Some Iraqis hate Iranians, especially after the Iran-Iraq war.
Otherwise, your analysis couldn't be further from the truth. The only two parties that Iran has great influence with in the Middle East is Syria and Hezbollah.

Egypt and Saudi Arabia are huge rivals with Iran (In fact, Egypt and Iran only recently--within the past several years--renewed relations since the Islamic Revolution), and despise Ahmadinejad--both see Iran acquiring nuclear weapons as existential threats to their states as well. The Gulf States like Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain, and Qatar also see Iran as threat to their existence. Same with Jordan.

Quoting Springbok747 (Reply 5):
Israel may get away with a single surprise strike against Iran. Israel has no ability to fight a protracted war. Israel cannot conduct a ground war over that distance. In an aerial war Israel will have to overfly Jordan, Syria and Iraq to strike Iran, or overfly Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf to do the same. That means violating the sovereignty of several countries wihich will provide a perfect excuse for those countries and every other muslim country in the middle east and in the world to join forces to destroy Israel once and for all. Saudi Arabia cannot remain neutral and must join the muslim side lest their own government's survival be at risk.

You are right about Israel's lack of ability to fight a protracted war with Iran.

In regards to the airspace issue, there was a report in the London Times that Saudi Arabia would be willing to look the other way if Israeli aircraft were to use Saudi airspace to carry out an attack on Iran's nuclear facility.
Lacking an ability of their own to carry out an effective surgical strike, the Saudis, Gulf States, Egyptians, and Jordanians are all looking to Israel to do their dirty work for them.
It's a classic case of the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
 
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DocLightning
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RE: What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

Thu Oct 01, 2009 1:50 am



Quoting Slider (Thread starter):

What if they were to sell one to Hugo Chavez, for instance? What then becomes the strategic response?

Hopefully to find and destroy whatever transport is carrying it.
-Doc Lightning-

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YVRLTN
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RE: What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

Thu Oct 01, 2009 4:07 am



Quoting MBMBOS (Reply 7):
It seems we've had several posts recently that are designed to justify starting a war with Iran

 checkmark  Flashback to 8 years ago with Iraq.

Quoting MBMBOS (Reply 7):
Ahmadinejad is crazy

So was Saddam

Quoting MBMBOS (Reply 7):
Iranian politicians are not rational

Same as Saddam & his cronies

Quoting MBMBOS (Reply 7):
Iran will sell nukes to terrorists

Same was said about Iraq

Quoting MBMBOS (Reply 7):
a nuclear Iran will upset the balance of power in the Middle East

Same was said about Iraq

Quoting MBMBOS (Reply 7):
Iran is building nuclear weapons (which has not yet been proven),

Same was said about Iraq.

Quoting MBMBOS (Reply 7):
We're back to fear mongering and hysteria. We're back to painting a nation and a people as irrational and evil as a way to feel justified for attacking and possibly killing in huge numbers, all in the name of self defense.

And look where the west are with Iraq - do we really have such short memories and think we could be any more successful in Iran?? Lets wait and see if Iran have any teeth in their mouth or they just spout hot air and let them show their cards and make the first move. However mad they are, they know full well any false move with nukes will result in their annihilation. I think they are achieving exactly what they want to achieve - let the world live in terror at idle threats.
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MD-90
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RE: What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

Thu Oct 01, 2009 4:18 am



Quoting Slider (Thread starter):
What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

This thread title is false pro-war propaganda.

Mohamed ElBaradei said Sept. 30 that there was "no credible evidence" that Iran was developing nuclear weapons.
 
slider
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RE: What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

Thu Oct 01, 2009 3:15 pm



Quoting Springbok747 (Reply 5):
definitely showed that sanctions do not work..

Agreed—I think among the majority of us here, as well as public opinion, the proof clearly exists that sanctions are BS. Why it’s still even in the debate, beyond mere political posturing and rhetoric, is beyond me.

Quoting RussianJet (Reply 6):
Ahmadinejad.

I don't particularly like the guy either, but calling him that doesn't further the reasoned argument against his policy one little bit.

Lighten up Francis. He’s a kook. We can all wax intellectually whilst engaging in a comical send-up of his name. I think everyone realizes the gravity of the situation.

Quoting MBMBOS (Reply 7):
We're back to fear mongering and hysteria. We're back to painting a nation and a people as irrational and evil as a way to feel justified for attacking and possibly killing in huge numbers, all in the name of self defense.

Whoa. Hold on a second there. No, this isn’t fearmongering and there’s certainly no hysteria. In reading the responses in this thread, I see some good analysis, some rational thoughts and no one freaking out saying that we should immediately preemptively do something. The leader is irrational. He’s a nut job. Iran has some people looking for reform but they have no voice…no one’s saying we should nuke them out of existence, so that claptrap won’t fly.

Quoting MBMBOS (Reply 7):
There's such a thing as self-fulfilling prophecy. Keep rattling the sabers and, sure enough, you'll end up with war.

I understand where you come from on this, but disagree. I think discussing the parsing through contingencies, not to mention preparing for them, is not only acceptable but very necessary. The best way to keep the peace is to prepare for war…peace through strength. History is the ruler here. I’d rather have the sabre at my side than stand there naked for some rogue like Imanutjob to do what he wishes unimpeded.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 10):
Hopefully to find and destroy whatever transport is carrying it.

That’s a good point Doc…that’s kind of what I was thinking. To the root question posited in this thread, I think if Iran moves something, there must be absolutely every effort taken to prevent it from reaching the recipient, NO MATTER who it is. If it happens to be a destination in our hemisphere, it’s even more imperative.

Quoting MD-90 (Reply 12):
This thread title is false pro-war propaganda.

Mohamed ElBaradei said Sept. 30 that there was "no credible evidence" that Iran was developing nuclear weapons.

LMAO!!! Keep your head in the sand.

Britain, France, Netherlands, Japan, US and Israel have all told ElBaradei what’s going on and he’s ignored it. His own report of August 28 states that he possesses substantial intelligence that confirms what Iran is doing (paragraphs 18 and 20) but he cannot answer IAEA inquiries nor confront Iran about it. According to DEBKA, that constitutes almost diplomatic fraud. He’s been a partial compromised Iran apologist (Bolton was absolutely right) and has no credibility whatsoever. If the IAEA cannot even be trusted to identify and ferret out the truth, then it will in fact be up to the other nations to take action.

To MBMBOS’s point, THAT’s the self-fulfilling prophecy—and another failure of so-called internationalism before our very eyes.
 
slider
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RE: What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

Mon Oct 05, 2009 4:33 pm

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-10/04/content_12181647.htm

ElBaradei, public enemy #1 and aider and abettor to rogue nuclear nations.

Claims Israel is the greatest nuclear threat in the Middle East. I am not an Israel apologist, but they haven’t directly overtly threatened anyone and hardly have used their weapons program to advance any agenda of taking over anything other than for their own defense. This whole thing will get out of hand.

Iran is not being held accountable and Baradei can only point fingers at Israel? Really? Can he make his bias any less transparent?
 
baroque
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RE: What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

Tue Oct 06, 2009 1:16 pm



Quoting MBMBOS (Reply 7):
Iran will "wipe Israel off the map" (by the way Ahmadinajad never said that)



Quoting Springbok747 (Reply 8):
The Imam said that this regime occupying Jerusalem (een rezhim-e eshghalgar-e qods) must [vanish from] the page of time (bayad az safheh-ye ruzgar mahv shavad).

The Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) translates the phrase similarly, as "be eliminated from the pages of history."

Quite so, but that does not invalidate what MBMBOS writes. If you look at the demography of Israel + Palestine, and the rate at which Israel is avoiding a two state solution, it will end up as a one state solution and unless there really is genocide, or an even more severe form of apartheid, then Ahmad's "prediction" will prove to be the case, Israel WILL cease to exist, at least as a Jewish state.

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 11):
And look where the west are with Iraq - do we really have such short memories and think we could be any more successful in Iran??

Nice post, much better argued than the "Iran wants nuclear weapons to attack all and sundry" school of thought.

Quoting Slider (Reply 13):
The leader is irrational. He's a nut job.

Ahmad might be irrational (probably not according to his lights and I dare say he would think you are tad irrational too) but more to the point, he is NOT the leader, he is President, why do you keep getting confused? As to his irrationality, just because someone does not think the same way as you does not immediately mean they are irrational. A little more analysis and fewer poorly supported assertions would be nice. Basically, the west knows sod all about Iran. Or to be more exact, most of what it knows comes from emigres who would probably like the Shah back. Remember when intell came from a similar group of folk re Iraq, for example the famous Curve-Ball? He did a really good job.

Quoting Slider (Reply 14):
ElBaradei, public enemy #1 and aider and abettor to rogue nuclear nations.

Just what is your evidence for this extraordinary assertion?

Not only do you not know what is actually going on in Iran courtesy of sanctions and lack of normalized relations, but you traduce the work of the UN. Remember your POTUS did a job on Hans Blix. Does this ring a bell?

Blix's statements about the Iraq WMD program came to contradict the claims of the George W. Bush administration, [6] and attracted a great deal of criticism from supporters of the invasion of Iraq. In an interview on BBC TV on 8 February 2004, Dr. Blix accused the US and British governments of dramatising the threat of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, in order to strengthen the case for the 2003 war against the regime of Saddam Hussein. Ultimately, no stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction were found. [

From Wiki
 
CaliAtenza
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RE: What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

Tue Oct 06, 2009 3:14 pm

The problem with Iran is that while the poeple want the mullahs and the thugs gone...we cant help them because the US and the west cant overtly help the opposition. For all of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad crazy rantings...he's not really teh one in power. He's actually just kinda a figurehead. Iran isnt stupid..well at least i dont hope so. They know that if they launch something toward Israel...Israel will counterattack or even blow that missle straight outta the sky.
 
Blackprojects
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RE: What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

Tue Oct 06, 2009 3:25 pm

Eventually Iran will do something Stupid and a lot of People Will get removed from this Planet in one way or another but Shooting a Nuclear Armed Missile at The Mount of the Rock would just Piss of the rest of the Muslim states instead of making them jump for joy.

So Iran"s nutter has to figure out what where and when and by the time he figures that out the ABL-1s could be ready and his Missiles will get whats coming to them!.
 
slider
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RE: What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

Tue Oct 06, 2009 4:30 pm



Quoting Baroque (Reply 15):
As to his irrationality, just because someone does not think the same way as you does not immediately mean they are irrational.

Are you condoning his irrationality then?
 
MD-90
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RE: What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

Tue Oct 06, 2009 5:46 pm



Quoting Slider (Reply 14):

Claims Israel is the greatest nuclear threat in the Middle East. I am not an Israel apologist, but they haven’t directly overtly threatened anyone and hardly have used their weapons program to advance any agenda of taking over anything other than for their own defense. This whole thing will get out of hand.

Israel has 400+ nuclear weapons, refuses to sign and abide by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (unlike Iran), and has overtly threatened Iran for years--they want the US to take Iran down for them so that they will be the most powerful nation in the Middle East without any doubt about their status.

Israel IS the greatest nuclear threat in the Middle East because they're the only with a substantial amount of nukes AND the means to deliver them.
 
Blackprojects
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RE: What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

Tue Oct 06, 2009 9:13 pm

Funny bit is who would you Trust not to Turn a Country in the Middle east into a Smoking Area of semi Molten glass Iran or Israel?

The Israelis have had the Bomb for Decades yet have never tried to use it not Once they had a think about it when Saddam was Lobbing Scuds at them but once Patriots showed up no use.

Iran's main Aim is the Removal of Israel from the pages of History as in Exterminating the Country and it"s people..

So if a Shooting war Starts between the Two it could be very Nasty for any one Caught in the middle IRAQ get some Hard hats and extra strong Sun Block!!
 
Mir
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RE: What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

Tue Oct 06, 2009 9:35 pm



Quoting Flanker (Reply 1):
If there is ever a war worth waging, it must this one.

I remember hearing that before the invasion of Iraq. To hear it applied again to Iran is troubling, though not entirely surprising.

-Mir
7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
 
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Aaron747
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RE: What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

Tue Oct 06, 2009 11:43 pm



Quoting MD-90 (Reply 19):

Israel has 400+ nuclear weapons, refuses to sign and abide by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (unlike Iran), and has overtly threatened Iran for years--they want the US to take Iran down for them so that they will be the most powerful nation in the Middle East without any doubt about their status.

And now Iran is, by several countries' estimation, violating the NNPT they are signatory to. As sovereign states, non-signatories technically can develop whatever they want. Signatories give up their sovereign powers to develop nuclear weapons technology - since I don't see powerplants popping up all over the country, there's only one reasonable explanation for the escalation in Iran's nuclear development. Take the blinders off for just a moment.

Quoting MD-90 (Reply 19):

Israel IS the greatest nuclear threat in the Middle East because they're the only with a substantial amount of nukes AND the means to deliver them.

I'm by no means a fan of modern Israeli governments, nor do I support continued US donations to their one-legged cause, but this is nothing short of a crazy statement. There's a big difference between defense, deterrence and outward aggression.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
MD-90
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RE: What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

Tue Oct 06, 2009 11:52 pm



Quoting Aaron747 (Reply 22):
Signatories give up their sovereign powers to develop nuclear weapons technology - since I don't see powerplants popping up all over the country, there's only one reasonable explanation for the escalation in Iran's nuclear development.

Iran has not yet been proven to be developing nuclear weapons. And the reason why nuclear plants aren't popping up all over Iran is because they're expensive and Iranians don't have that much experience with them. Doesn't that make more sense than a nuclear conspiracy?

Quoting Aaron747 (Reply 22):
I'm by no means a fan of modern Israeli governments, nor do I support continued US donations to their one-legged cause, but this is nothing short of a crazy statement.

If Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons, then how can they be a nuclear threat?
 
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Aaron747
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RE: What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

Wed Oct 07, 2009 12:01 am



Quoting MD-90 (Reply 23):
Iran has not yet been proven to be developing nuclear weapons. And the reason why nuclear plants aren't popping up all over Iran is because they're expensive and Iranians don't have that much experience with them. Doesn't that make more sense than a nuclear conspiracy?

Can you prove that they don't? Can you prove that their current efforts won't have lasting effects on the balance of power in the Gulf, to say nothing of global economic concerns for the next several years? If it's so untrue why are their neighbors so concerned??
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
baroque
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RE: What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

Wed Oct 07, 2009 5:49 am



Quoting Slider (Reply 18):
Quoting Baroque (Reply 15):
As to his irrationality, just because someone does not think the same way as you does not immediately mean they are irrational.

Are you condoning his irrationality then?

No I am asking you to demonstrate that he lacks a rational cause for what he does. You (and I) have no real basis for assessing most of what he does. Constantly repeating the mantra that he is irrational does not advance the argument one bit.

Rather it prevents any logical analysis of anything.

Here is how the case for the prosecution goes:

1. Iran wants to destroy Israel
2. Iran has nuclear weapons already (with a sidebet on getting them soon)
3. Ahmad is irrational - code for crazy
4. What else do you need to know, oh yes, Iran has oil coming out of its ears for centuries to come so why would it want nuclear power?

Iran probably would like Israel to be gone, but assuming it can read the papers it will have worked out that Israel is busily ensuring it will not continue for long in its present form. On the second point, really?? Point 3, how do you know that? And four is along the wonderful lines that has made the US the major importer of oil in the world.
 
slider
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RE: What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

Wed Oct 07, 2009 9:27 pm



Quoting Baroque (Reply 25):
No I am asking you to demonstrate that he lacks a rational cause for what he does.

You cannot apply logic to the guy at all, frankly. This is someone (and this is a mistake the Western world makes too often and a fundamental misunderstanding of Islam) who makes no distinction among political, religious, or military--they are all part and parcel of the same goals and same agenda.

He's directly threatened to destroy Israel. Must I posit scores of quotes of his own words here? Really? And then do you want to honestly have an attempt at "logic" in parsing through his words?

That's not rational. By any definition. I'm not an advocate of pre-emptively striking Iran. But I am an advocate of preventing any transfer of would-be nuclear material or weapons to any other state.
 
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RE: What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

Wed Oct 07, 2009 10:28 pm



Quoting Slider (Thread starter):
Iran is nuclear

Sure. But for the time being still developing nuclear technology for civilian use. Even if you do not believe Ayatollahs (doubts justified indeed), they cannot export what they at least at present do not have, or not yet have. And to say that they are developing nuclear weapons is speculation.

Certain "experts" speak about "obvious" or "increasing evidence" or "conclusive evidence" which means that their assumptions simply are speculations. Any clairvoyant will be more reliable.

Quoting Aaron747 (Reply 2):
in nuclear proliferation on the Straight of Hormuz, their current efforts can not be allowed to continue

again, they say they are only developing nuclear technology for civilian use AND to be able to export nuclear energy (electricity-wise via cable). And there is absolutely no proof to the contrary.

Iran in general, both under Imperial rule and under the present Mullahcracy, has been extremely reluctant to take any military risks, in spite of armed forces vastly superior to their neighbours with the exception of regional superpower Turkey.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 3):
The Gulf War actually helped spark a rebellion in Iraq. I was watching a TV show a while back where one of the anti-Sadaam people said essentially that they were trying to hold out for assistance from the Americans that never came.

People in Iraq then hoped that the Western Alliance upon the liberation of Kuwait would carry on along the words of ousted Mrs Thatcher "we shall not appease a dictator ever again". But a weak and deadlocked Iraq under the rule of a bloodthirsty tyrant fitted better into the geopolitical strategies of some people.

Quoting Springbok747 (Reply 5):
Didn't Imanutjob meet with Zardari (president of Pakistan) recently?

He within two years met, among others :
State President General Michel Sulaiman of Lebanon
King Abdullah as-Sa'ud of Saudi Arabia
President Zardari of Pakistan
State President Talabani of Iraq
Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki of Iraq
-- which shows that he is very busy in improving contacts. And you can be sure that he in his talks does not utter the rubbish he presents in his speeches !

Quoting Springbok747 (Reply 8):
Clearly he is someone who wants Israel gone, i.e. 'off the map'. He may have not said those words directly but his intentions are clear.

I do not have any doubts about his stance towards Israel. But if you read his rubbish carefully, you will realize that he and all the other members of the Iranian Mullahcracy since 1979 do not want to do it themselves, but wish that somebody else does "the job". Sooooo nice people !

Quoting Us330 (Reply 9):
the fear that Iran could become the A.Q. Khan for any militia or terrorist group

That fear is justified, but any militia or terrorist group could or at worst might resort to sources who are farther ahead in nuclear technology than Iran

Quoting Slider (Reply 14):
ElBaradei, public enemy #1 and aider and abettor to rogue nuclear nations.

Claims Israel is the greatest nuclear threat in the Middle East. I am not an Israel apologist, but they haven’t directly overtly threatened anyone and hardly have used their weapons program to advance any agenda of taking over anything other than for their own defense. This whole thing will get out of hand.

Iran is not being held accountable and Baradei can only point fingers at Israel? Really? Can he make his bias any less transparent?

Mr elBaradei is NOT an enemy to anyone and is not an aider or abettor to rogue nuclear nations. In reality, it is strange that the USA, while having thousands of words of disapproval, in reality silently accepts and condones the nuclear capability of North Korea, but makes noise about Iran, without having any proof about nuclear weapons programs there.
-
the military nuclear capability of Israel has ruined the balance of power. Whenever they all speak about "civilian nuclear technology" it is interesting that Morocco, Algeria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey have either started or re-started "civilian" nuclear development programs. The real trouble is that we within a decade will have one or two dozen countries around the globe NOT sporting nuclear weapons but having the technology, the equipment and the facilities to jump into nukes within a year.

Quoting Springbok747 (Reply 5):
Iran has great influence among Middle East muslim countries. Iraq is shiite muslim like Iran

No, Iran does not have "great influence" among Muslim countries. Not even in Iraq, as Iraq in spite of its Shi'ite majority is an Arab country and rather nationalist -- which was shown when the first action of their own government was to go to Cairo to re-activate the Iraqi seat in the Arab League.

Quoting Us330 (Reply 9):
Some Iraqis hate Iranians, especially after the Iran-Iraq war.
Otherwise, your analysis couldn't be further from the truth. The only two parties that Iran has great influence with in the Middle East is Syria and Hezbollah.

While there may be Iraqis who hate Iranians, it in fact is the other way round. The Iran-Iraq war was partially a result of the Arab-Iranian conflict which is older than Methusalem. While Iran is Persian-nationalist, Iraq is the Eastern Pillar of the Arab World.

And while Iran does have influence on Hizbullah, its influence upon secularist westernized Syria is rather limited. As Iran not only pays lavishly for services rendered but helps Syria in matters like the start of an independent motor car construction program, Syria continues to co-operate. But the problems between the two leaderships start when you look at their allies. In Lebanon, Iran has it with Hizbullah, but Syria with the rival (also Shi'ite) Amal Party (which was the most noteable winner in the last elections) and the Maronite-Christian Frangieh Clan. In Palestine, Iran thanks to financing from the KSA supports, quite "contre-coeur", the Sunnite Hamas Party, while Syria of course is with el-Saika (still linked with the Syrian secret service), which is a member of the PLO.

Quoting BlackProjects (Reply 20):
The Israelis have had the Bomb for Decades yet have never tried to use it

the same is true for India and Pakistan since they got nukes. It looks as if countries, as soon as having nukes, become more peaceful. The conclusion so is that everybody should have his little nice nuke ready. And then there no longer will be any wars.  Wink  Big grin  Silly



Quoting Slider (Reply 26):
This is someone (and this is a mistake the Western world makes too often and a fundamental misunderstanding of Islam) who makes no distinction among political, religious, or military--they are all part and parcel of the same goals and same agenda.

quite to the contrary, he and his colleagues carefully differentiate between military, political, religious, and propaganda aspects

Quoting Slider (Reply 26):
He's directly threatened to destroy Israel

NO, he never threatened to destroy Israel. He either demanded that somebody (else please) was to destroy Israel, or that Israel somehow simply went out of business. He neither directly nor indirectly did what you conclude. I do NOT speak Farsi, so that I here refer to the same sources you also have or had, but I read them carefully.

That the worthy gentlemen to all appearance is of Jewish origin only adds a bit to the bizarre set of realities
 
connies4ever
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RE: What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

Wed Oct 07, 2009 10:45 pm



Quoting Aaron747 (Reply 22):
And now Iran is, by several countries' estimation, violating the NNPT they are signatory to. As sovereign states, non-signatories technically can develop whatever they want. Signatories give up their sovereign powers to develop nuclear weapons technology - since I don't see powerplants popping up all over the country, there's only one reasonable explanation for the escalation in Iran's nuclear development. Take the blinders off for just a moment.


Bushehr. Bushehr. Look at a map. The Russians are building it and will supply the 1st charge of fuel (and take back the spent remains). The centrifuges just might, ya know, be for delivering the 2nd charge of fuel. LEU enrichment, 4-5%. Currently Iran seems to be enriching to around 3%.

Quoting Slider (Reply 26):
He's directly threatened to destroy Israel. Must I posit scores of quotes of his own words here? Really? And then do you want to honestly have an attempt at "logic" in parsing through his words?

East Germany got wiped off the map not too long ago. It was purchased by West Germany. Oh, sorry, you don't remember. Saying Israel must be wiped off the map does not in and of itself mean war.

Quoting Baroque (Reply 15):
Quite so, but that does not invalidate what MBMBOS writes. If you look at the demography of Israel + Palestine, and the rate at which Israel is avoiding a two state solution, it will end up as a one state solution and unless there really is genocide, or an even more severe form of apartheid, then Ahmad's "prediction" will prove to be the case, Israel WILL cease to exist, at least as a Jewish state.

Given the varying birth rate, Alan, Israel CAN continue, even with a Palestinian majority, IF they are willing to officially (as opposed to tacitly) move to apartheid. Let's face it, Israeli business is quite happy to have a decently educated underclass willing to work for dirt.

Quoting Slider (Reply 13):
Whoa. Hold on a second there. No, this isn’t fearmongering and there’s certainly no hysteria. In reading the responses in this thread, I see some good analysis, some rational thoughts and no one freaking out saying that we should immediately preemptively do something. The leader is irrational. He’s a nut job. Iran has some people looking for reform but they have no voice…no one’s saying we should nuke them out of existence, so that claptrap won’t fly.


Yes it is fearmongering. Saddam was demonized, his (his, sort of) country invaded and basically destroyed, and then all manner of civil strife unleashed. And for what ? 4,000+ American dead, that's what. Prior to the invasion, as bad as Saddam was, women had more or less equal rights, education was a priority, there was health care. Thanks to 'democracy' that's all gone. At the end of the day, there were no WMDs. America and Britain lied to the world.

As for irrational or crazy leaders, I nominate Reagan (look up Alzheimer's). He and his cronies started us down this path of neo-con-ism. And look where it's led.

Amedinahjad is by no means crazy or irrational, he is using a time-honoured tool of provoking fear of the 'foreign devils' to hide the fact that his government is running Iran into the ground. Enemies everywhere, be suspicious. Sounds almost McCathy-esque.
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
 
MD-90
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RE: What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

Wed Oct 07, 2009 11:14 pm



Quote:
"...this Occupation regime over Jerusalem must vanish from the page of time"

"...in rezhim-e eshghalgar-i Qods bayad as safheh-e ruzgar mahv shavad"

Sounds to me more like an East German in 1980 hoping that the USSR would collapse rather than someone threatening to "wipe Israel off the map."

Ahmadinejad himself has said that, "Iran is not a threat to any country, and is not in any way a people of intimidation and aggression." Unlike the US and Israel, Iran has not started any wars of aggression in the modern era.
 
baroque
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RE: What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

Thu Oct 08, 2009 4:05 am



Quoting Slider (Reply 26):
He's directly threatened to destroy Israel. Must I posit scores of quotes of his own words here? Really? And then do you want to honestly have an attempt at "logic" in parsing through his words?



Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 27):
Quoting Slider (Reply 26):
He's directly threatened to destroy Israel

NO, he never threatened to destroy Israel. He either demanded that somebody (else please) was to destroy Israel, or that Israel somehow simply went out of business. He neither directly nor indirectly did what you conclude. I do NOT speak Farsi, so that I here refer to the same sources you also have or had, but I read them carefully.



Quoting Connies4ever (Reply 28):
Quoting Slider (Reply 26):
He's directly threatened to destroy Israel. Must I posit scores of quotes of his own words here? Really? And then do you want to honestly have an attempt at "logic" in parsing through his words?

East Germany got wiped off the map not too long ago. It was purchased by West Germany. Oh, sorry, you don't remember. Saying Israel must be wiped off the map does not in and of itself mean war.

I was hoping someone would do the reply. So thanks MAF and Connies, better than I could have done.

Quoting Connies4ever (Reply 28):
Given the varying birth rate, Alan, Israel CAN continue, even with a Palestinian majority, IF they are willing to officially (as opposed to tacitly) move to apartheid. Let's face it, Israeli business is quite happy to have a decently educated underclass willing to work for dirt.

Yes, that is so Connies, but so far most systems like that have proved to have a time limit and modern comms just shortens that time. Arguably, the 40+ years already means that the clock had already ticked. Then again Israel could make history again, by making a "success" out of Apartheid - but I would not want to bet on it!
 
ly772
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RE: What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

Fri Oct 09, 2009 11:21 am

Hi everybody,

I had a bad feeling when I clicked on this topic. Something told me that if I read this topic I would want to respond. I can get very mad very quickly but I am really trying to stay calm.

About Iran

It was only thirty years ago that Iran was such a good friend to the west. I don't know about American companies or European companies, but I know that El Al flew there. I know that Solel Boneh, the largest Israeli construciton company, built hundreds of building there. Often I think to my self what could have been. Israel and Iran as economical allies.

All evidence points that Iran has nuclear capabilities. Few know what the true intentions are of Mr. Ahmadinjad. All I know is this: A man who denies the death of six million jews in the holocaust a mere six decades ago, who calls for the immediate destruction of a U.N. Member State has or is close to being able to produce nucleaur weapons.

About Israel in this conflict

I will start with a very personel note to the people who have written in this topic such slurs as "Israel will demise". I find this saying somewhere between making me mad and making me laugh. For starters, I don't believe that wiping out a nation is possible in the 21st Century. Moreover, I am shocked that people who yell out "genocide" and "murder" when speaking about Israel call for the destruction of it in the same sentance.

I wonder what would happen if Iran called on the destruction of Great Britain. Would the world sit quietly?

Wars have been started for many reasons. Foreign dependancy on oil started a war. An assassnitation of a Austro-Hungarian heir to the throne started one. Israel fights for it's survival.

Israel is not perfect, no country is. Their is no majority in Israel about politics. Left wing, right wing, and center. We have it all, just like any country.

I will finish this nice little chat with this: Operation Opera in 1981 and Operation Orchard in 2007 were neccesary. I don't know what will be done with Iran. But I can assure you that everything that can be done to insure self-defense will be done.
 
slider
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RE: What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

Fri Oct 09, 2009 2:46 pm



Quoting LY772 (Reply 31):
All I know is this: A man who denies the death of six million jews in the holocaust a mere six decades ago, who calls for the immediate destruction of a U.N. Member State has or is close to being able to produce nucleaur weapons.

Clearly, Ahmedinajad is worthy of the Nobel Peace Prize.  Wink

Great post, BTW!
 
ME AVN FAN
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RE: What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

Sat Oct 10, 2009 7:44 pm



Quoting LY772 (Reply 31):
About Israel in this conflict

I will start with a very personel note to the people who have written in this topic such slurs as "Israel will demise". I find this saying somewhere between making me mad and making me laugh. For starters, I don't believe that wiping out a nation is possible in the 21st Century. Moreover, I am shocked that people who yell out "genocide" and "murder" when speaking about Israel call for the destruction of it in the same sentance.

I wonder what would happen if Iran called on the destruction of Great Britain. Would the world sit quietly?

Israel is not in a "conflict" with Iran. And what would happen if Iran called for the destruction of Great Britain ? The same as what happened when Khaddafi called for the destruction of Switzerland, which means jokes
like this one
 
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par13del
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RE: What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

Sat Oct 10, 2009 7:56 pm



Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 11):
And look where the west are with Iraq - do we really have such short memories and think we could be any more successful in Iran??

Except the EU is the leading negotiator for the west on Iran, from GWB last days in office, you really believe that the EU will initiate or order the US to start military actions? The US took the lead on Iraq, your points may be accurate but the context is off. Until the US becomes lead their rhetoric is just that, the EU is not being guided by it.
 
baroque
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RE: What If Iran Were To Sell Their Nuclear Weapons?

Sun Oct 11, 2009 4:50 am



Quoting LY772 (Reply 31):
For starters, I don't believe that wiping out a nation is possible in the 21st Century.

Quite possibly/probably true, but don't forget it cuts both ways, like a two edged sword so that it is probably impossible to wipe out the Palestinian nation too. Which then leads to the conclusion that Israel itself could well be metastable unless it comes to a solution that is acceptable to the Palestinians.

I am confident you will be applauding
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1119643.html
but you should also read
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1119642.html
About an hour's drive from us, the unbelievably cruel reality continues. Everything is done there in the name of us all, supposedly, and in the name of security, supposedly. And here among us there is either distorted discourse or non-discourse.

Nothing will change as long as this state of affairs continues. A recent report by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs draws a shocking picture of what is happening in Gaza. For example, 75 percent of its inhabitants, more than 1 million people, are suffering from nutritional deficiencies, 90 percent must live through power blackouts for four to eight hours every day, 40 percent of those who apply to leave for medical treatment are refused by Israel and 140,000 inhabitants are unemployed.


That and other matters is what makes Israel metastable. Ahmad in the long run will not need to lift a finger. The seeds were planted over 40 years ago.

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