futurepilot16
Posts: 1756
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2007 7:20 am

Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Sun Jan 10, 2010 7:56 pm

I though this was interesting. At first I'm thinking, what the frig is this guy talking about? In the past, Yemen has let terrorists out of prison if they promised not to work with terrorist groups like al-Quaida (That worked real well  Yeah sure ). However, what exactly is al-Quaida fighting against? Could it be possible that the United States, could agree to terms with al-Quaida, like Yemen wants to do. These talks would include the U.S. pulling out of the middle east for good, and al-Quaida promising no more terrorist attacks.

My answer is NO, a treaty like this would not work, but is it possible? George Bush said we don't negotiate with terrorists, to which I agree. But what if  scratchchin ?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34790787/ns/world_news-mideastn_africa

Your thoughts?
"The brave don't live forever, but the cautious don't live at all."
 
User avatar
SOBHI51
Posts: 3715
Joined: Wed Jun 04, 2003 1:32 pm

Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Sun Jan 10, 2010 8:11 pm

No no no. I never trust those people. Any organization who kill innocent people is not to be trusted.
I am against any terrorist acts committed under the name of Islam
 
JRadier
Posts: 3943
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2004 11:36 pm

Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Sun Jan 10, 2010 10:02 pm

Sounds logical to me. Fighting them clearly doesn't work (for Yemen and the US), so might as well try this.
For once you have tasted flight you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards, for there you have been and ther
 
StarAC17
Posts: 3400
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Sun Jan 10, 2010 10:40 pm



Quoting FuturePilot16 (Thread starter):
My answer is NO, a treaty like this would not work, but is it possible? George Bush said we don't negotiate with terrorists, to which I agree. But what if scratchchin ?

Won't work at all, only some groups are really pissed off with the US presence in the ME and those groups that would be the Palestinians (for the US supporting Israel) , The Iraqi's, and the Afghan's (two countries that the US in occupying).

These things are not directly connected to Al-Qaeda in any way in fact the Palestinians do not want to be associated with them because their main issue is a border dispute with Israel. in fact they have said that Al-Qaeda is wrong to suggest that their are fighting the west because of the US support for Israel. What is dangerous with the US occupations is that the alleged imperialism seen from their point of view is good to get people against the US and the west to join their movement.

Quoting FuturePilot16 (Thread starter):
However, what exactly is al-Quaida fighting against?

They want a holy war between the west and Islam because they feel that their are the ones of god and everyone else is the evil Satan. (Yes it is more complex than that, but that is what people like Bin Laden do say) What is scary about this group is that they are not afraid of death which is something the communists in the USSR were afraid of. So no amount of military force can kill this amount of extremism because as crazy as it sounds killing them will be in a way giving them what they want.
Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
 
TheCol
Posts: 1857
Joined: Wed Jan 03, 2007 9:30 am

Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Sun Jan 10, 2010 11:09 pm



Quoting FuturePilot16 (Thread starter):
Could it be possible that the United States, could agree to terms with al-Quaida

The only thing that the West would ever negotiate with AQ is the handover of OBL and his cronies. Negotiating with OBL directly would be exactly like negotiating with Hitler before the war, and we all know how that turned out. Every time the West has shook hands with the devil, he came around and bit us in the ass later.

Quoting FuturePilot16 (Thread starter):
and al-Quaida promising no more terrorist attacks.

Hitler made a lot of promises too, and they meant jack all in the end.
No matter how random things may appear, there's always a plan.
 
futurepilot16
Posts: 1756
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2007 7:20 am

Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Sun Jan 10, 2010 11:16 pm



Quoting SOBHI51 (Reply 1):
No no no. I never trust those people. Any organization who kill innocent people is not to be trusted.

You mean like the U.S. gov't?  stirthepot 
"The brave don't live forever, but the cautious don't live at all."
 
EZEIZA
Posts: 4421
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 12:09 am

Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Sun Jan 10, 2010 11:21 pm



Quoting SOBHI51 (Reply 1):
No no no. I never trust those people. Any organization who kill innocent people is not to be trusted

Like the country that invades Iraq killing thousands of people in the process?

I too would have my dounts about having talks with these guys, but on the other hand, the "No talk" policy has been useless until now, so the question is, would talks make things worse or better?
Carp aunque ganes o pierdas ...
 
StarAC17
Posts: 3400
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Sun Jan 10, 2010 11:21 pm



Quoting TheCol (Reply 4):
The only thing that the West would ever negotiate with AQ is the handover of OBL and his cronies.

That would be more symbolic than anything else because I believe that he has said something along the lines of what James Bond said whenever he was about to get killed which is. "If you kill me 008 will be there to take my place."

As long as there are people who believe what he believes (which is not very many people in the world anyways) there will always be an Al-Qaeda.
Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
 
ME AVN FAN
Posts: 12970
Joined: Fri May 31, 2002 12:05 am

Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Sun Jan 10, 2010 11:28 pm



Quoting FuturePilot16 (Thread starter):
what exactly is al-Quaida fighting against?

THIS is one question, the other is what they demand in exchange for stopping their attacks against Yemen. Mr Saleh now will find out whether talks are possible with those people. But he of course only can speak for Yemen, but not for Europe or the USA.
 
TheCol
Posts: 1857
Joined: Wed Jan 03, 2007 9:30 am

Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Sun Jan 10, 2010 11:54 pm



Quoting FuturePilot16 (Reply 5):



Quoting EZEIZA (Reply 6):

Like the country that invades Iraq killing thousands of people in the process?

Bush and Co. are gone. New ballgame.

Quoting EZEIZA (Reply 6):
would talks make things worse or better?

That question is moot. OBL doesn't want peace with the West.

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 8):
the other is what they demand in exchange for stopping their attacks against Yemen.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that one out. Hopefully history won't repeat itself:

No matter how random things may appear, there's always a plan.
 
EZEIZA
Posts: 4421
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 12:09 am

Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Mon Jan 11, 2010 1:18 am



Quoting TheCol (Reply 9):
That question is moot. OBL doesn't want peace with the West.

I agree, but OBL won't be around for ever. We don't know who will come after him.

Quoting TheCol (Reply 9):
Bush and Co. are gone. New ballgame.

And yet the troops are still there. In their view it doesn't make too much of a difference that W is gone. The deaths of all those people are still way too fresh, especially since the ones that perpetrated them are still there!
Carp aunque ganes o pierdas ...
 
baroque
Posts: 12302
Joined: Thu Apr 27, 2006 2:15 pm

Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Mon Jan 11, 2010 1:43 am

As Jurgen and Ezeiza write, killing them meets their wildest desires. And that itself might be considered a contra-indication.

Astonishing effort in response. A recourse - rather incorrectly as it happens - to 1938 but then it is claimed that the Iraqis and a goodly few others should forget being bombed and blown up from 2003 through to yesterday. Keep banging the war drums. But meanwhile the more practical have to find a solution to the disasters those lines of thinking have produced. So let me get this right, we should use an incorrect recall of 1938 as a guide, but the Iraqis and Afghans should not remember 2008.

Bombing clearly is not working on what is now a ten year time scale, so why should another 10 years of bombing suddenly "come good". Doing the same thing and expecting different results ....... at least Einstein knew what that indicates.

Time for a change. It hardly seems likely that with the experiences to date, any set of negotiators are going to march in all naive and optimistic. Not that they did in 1938 either, they were frantically playing for time.

The "we don't negotiate with terrorists" has always been dumb and it has almost always been a lie. One of the greatest "buyers off" of kidnappers was the US under Reagan.

As it happens, it appears the US was until last week negotiating with and paying a terrorist in Afghanistan, and he responded by blowing up the CIA. At least a set of formal negotiations should have a lower risk of that happening.
 
User avatar
DocLightning
Posts: 19630
Joined: Wed Nov 16, 2005 8:51 am

Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Mon Jan 11, 2010 2:52 am



Quoting FuturePilot16 (Thread starter):

My answer is NO, a treaty like this would not work, but is it possible? George Bush said we don't negotiate with terrorists, to which I agree. But what if scratchchin ?



Quoting EZEIZA (Reply 6):

Like the country that invades Iraq killing thousands of people in the process?

Here's the difference (and it's not that we're the U.S. so we're the angels of good even if we kill women and children):

The U.S. Army/Navy/Air Force/Marines take orders from the top. When we reach an agreement not to attack, we can be trusted not to. And we're accountable to that agreement if we break it. When the CIC says "we're pulling out of the Mid East" and issues a direct order to do so, it happens. The troops may like or dislike the orders, but they will follow them regardless.

This is not the case for any terrorist or guerilla organization. These organizations, by their very nature, must be disorganized, decentralized, and cannot have a clear chain of command. Al Qaeda has branches and cells all over the world and no clear system of authority or accountability. They don't wear uniforms, they don't have ranks, and they don't all agree on whose orders to follow.

And so when Osama bin Laden himself gives an order for AQ to disengage and to stop any attacks on the U.S., certain cells will simply decide that he's 1) sold out 2) been tortured into giving an order and ignore it. This is what happened with the IRA, who were much more organized and centralized than AQ ever was. When the leadership called on the IRA to stop bombing the British, lo and behold, a splinter group called "The Real IRA" appeared and kept it up.

And so that is why I do not believe that we can come to a peaceful accord with these people. It's not because they're bad people (even though I think they are) but it's because they aren't capable of stopping even if they wanted to.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
EZEIZA
Posts: 4421
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 12:09 am

Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Mon Jan 11, 2010 3:19 am



Quoting DocLightning (Reply 12):
This is not the case for any terrorist or guerilla organization. These organizations, by their very nature, must be disorganized, decentralized, and cannot have a clear chain of command

I see your point and I would agree with you if it weren't for the fact that I believe that you are completely wrong (with all due respect, this is just matter of opinion  Smile ) in thinking that these guys are disorganized and that they don't have chains of command. I truly believe it is the contrary; in fact their power relies on how well organized they are, and their ability to follow orders to the last detail. There's a reason why the most powerful military in the world has not been able to finish with them (not even close really).
Carp aunque ganes o pierdas ...
 
StarAC17
Posts: 3400
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Mon Jan 11, 2010 3:27 am



Quoting EZEIZA (Reply 13):
in fact their power relies on how well organized they are, and their ability to follow orders to the last detail. There's a reason why the most powerful military in the world has not been able to finish with them (not even close really).

No military, no matter how big, how how smart and how powerful can deal with this kind of threat because you don't have an enemy that is well defined to a country or region. This is an ideology that doesn't appear to fear death in any way and is easily able to convince people on the fence on who to side with that the West are the evil ones when we rightly or wrongly retaliate.

The best thing to do is to use intelligence to stop the attacks and hope that with time that this mentality disappears over time. We simply can't eliminate by attacking them back when they succeed in attacking us.
Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
 
baroque
Posts: 12302
Joined: Thu Apr 27, 2006 2:15 pm

Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Mon Jan 11, 2010 3:42 am



Quoting EZEIZA (Reply 13):
Quoting DocLightning (Reply 12):
This is not the case for any terrorist or guerilla organization. These organizations, by their very nature, must be disorganized, decentralized, and cannot have a clear chain of command

I see your point and I would agree with you if it weren't for the fact that I believe that you are completely wrong (with all due respect, this is just matter of opinion Smile ) in thinking that these guys are disorganized and that they don't have chains of command. I truly believe it is the contrary; in fact their power relies on how well organized they are, and their ability to follow orders to the last detail. There's a reason why the most powerful military in the world has not been able to finish with them (not even close really).

The trouble is you are both right. But only one has the right conclusion.

In the end the critical factor is that 10 years of whatever it is we are doing has killed plenty but not really diminished their ability to attack. Perhaps more exactly it has not really diminished our apprehension of the likelihod of their attacking. And as far as they are concerned that is sufficient.

Which takes you back to continuing to do the same thing and expecting different results. Insanity saith Einstein. Just saying they are disorganized is not enough.

In any case we already have an example with Islamic extremists, we don't have to rely on the IRA.

Detachment 88 in Indonesia has persuaded the main body of JI to abandon violence as a tactic. Yes, a splinter group is still trying violent methods. But now it looks as if instead of chasing some thousand of JI operatives, Det 88 is chasing perhaps 20 or 30 - rather a different problem.

And no, Det 88 does not use heavy weapons and does not bomb civilian populations. It would be out of business in about 3 hours if it did.

Anyway, if someone can come up with material from Indonesia suggestion that Det 88 is a bunch of appeasers not worth the ground they stand on, I will be interested to read. Till then, perhaps we should follow their lead.
 
QANTAS077
Posts: 5171
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2004 5:08 pm

Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Mon Jan 11, 2010 5:58 am



Quoting TheCol (Reply 9):
That question is moot. OBL doesn't want peace with the West.

Bin laden is irrelevant..he has been for some time now.
 
futurepilot16
Posts: 1756
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2007 7:20 am

Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Mon Jan 11, 2010 6:26 am



Quoting StarAC17 (Reply 14):

No military, no matter how big, how how smart and how powerful can deal with this kind of threat because you don't have an enemy that is well defined to a country or region. This is an ideology that doesn't appear to fear death in any way and is easily able to convince people on the fence on who to side with that the West are the evil ones when we rightly or wrongly retaliate.

The reason why I made this thread is to encourage a little different dialogue rather than "we should just blow them all up", which I do support, don't get me wrong. But, the United States, or any other country on earth has ever faced an enemy that welcomes death. It's practically impossible for us to win. So If not dialogue, anybody else see a fitting solution? Because I don't see an end to it.

I think what the U.S. is trying to do is just backfiring because the more we try to help the Afghans and make them think we're good, it's ultimately falling on deaf ears.
"The brave don't live forever, but the cautious don't live at all."
 
TheCol
Posts: 1857
Joined: Wed Jan 03, 2007 9:30 am

Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Mon Jan 11, 2010 6:53 am



Quoting EZEIZA (Reply 10):
We don't know who will come after him.

Probably Omar or one of his other cronies, though I have a sneaking suspicion that AQ will be pretty lost without him. The rest of the leaders are competing with each other for power, and that's really all they care about. There is already rumors of infighting and confusion over the current leadership.

Quoting EZEIZA (Reply 10):
And yet the troops are still there.

They would hate us more if we pulled out and let the shit really hit the fan. Especially in Afghanistan, where most of the Taliban fighters are foreigners.

Quoting QANTAS077 (Reply 16):

Irrelevant to who? Certainly not AQ.
No matter how random things may appear, there's always a plan.
 
baroque
Posts: 12302
Joined: Thu Apr 27, 2006 2:15 pm

Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Mon Jan 11, 2010 11:42 am



Quoting EZEIZA (Reply 10):
We don't know who will come after him.

Indeed we do not. However, what you might call "experiments" on the Taliban in Pakistan/Afghanistan rather suggest the successors will be "more bad" (perhaps badder?? or even more badder??) than the ones eliminated. That seems to be how the CIA suffered its latest problems. A plot hatched by the son of one whom they assassinated. ??Time to do the sums again???
 
ME AVN FAN
Posts: 12970
Joined: Fri May 31, 2002 12:05 am

Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Mon Jan 11, 2010 12:31 pm



Quoting TheCol (Reply 9):
history won't repeat itself:

the comparison is wrong, as
- elQaeda is not a country
- Ali Abdullah Saleh is both president and CIC of the armed forces
- Ali Abdullah Saleh has NOT lost a war
- Ali Abdullah Saleh is NOT senile
He however has to show that HE is ready to negotiate and to talk. He at the other hand is NOT known as an appeaser, and usually first talks and then hits.

Quoting TheCol (Reply 18):
We don't know who will come after him.

Probably Omar or one of his other cronies, though I have a sneaking suspicion that AQ will be pretty lost without him. The rest of the leaders are competing with each other for power

Sounds as if you think of "Mullah Omar" ? But Mullah Omar is an Afghan and was a leading person in the Taliban regime. And so has nothing to do with elQaeda which is NOT Afghan but Arab. The most obvious leader after OBL of course is his deputy, Dr med Ayman al-Zawahiri. But that man has no access to the binLaden finances. So that he will have to do a power-sharing with one of the sons of OBL
 
EZEIZA
Posts: 4421
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 12:09 am

Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Mon Jan 11, 2010 2:49 pm



Quoting TheCol (Reply 18):
They would hate us more if we pulled out and let the shit really hit the fan. Especially in Afghanistan, where most of the Taliban fighters are foreigners.

possibly, but that's not hwo they see it at present. propaganda kicks in here; in that sense the evil invader is still their ruling over their lives.
Carp aunque ganes o pierdas ...
 
ME AVN FAN
Posts: 12970
Joined: Fri May 31, 2002 12:05 am

Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Mon Jan 11, 2010 5:31 pm



Quoting TheCol (Reply 18):
They would hate us more if we pulled out and let the shit really hit the fan. Especially in Afghanistan, where most of the Taliban fighters are foreigners.

Sorry, but does it matter to you whether somebody up on the plains or in the mountains of Afghanistan hates "the West" ??

You ought to get updated.
<> the days when the anti-western forces were the "Taliban" are gone
<> the most important anti-western force is the Mudjahideen movement of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar (again in fact)
<> the various anti-western groups no longer have many foreign fighters, and the thing with the foreign fighters of the "old" Taliban regime was highly exaggerated in the media, as most of those "fighters" simply were Afghani conscripts
<> the "anti-western forces" mostly are locals, as the conscripts now are on the side of the "Khan of Kabul"

in case of a full pull-out of the "Western" forces, not so much will really change. Important regional leaders like the one of Herat or General Rashid Dostum who at present proforma side with the disrespected Khan of Kabul will adapt. The various groups, bundled together in the media as "Taliban" will fight for influence. Afghanistan will continue to be a "country" in the legal sense, but in reality be lead by the local/regional rulers.

To say that "the shit hits the fan" is nonsense. I rather expect that at a given time one of the warlords, possibly Rashid Dostum, will by force "unite" his country.
 
StarAC17
Posts: 3400
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

RE: Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Mon Jan 11, 2010 9:09 pm



Quoting FuturePilot16 (Reply 17):
So If not dialogue, anybody else see a fitting solution? Because I don't see an end to it.

What you can be optimistic about is that with things like the internet and increased globalization especially with communication made available through the internet (examples being forums like this one, facebook and twitter etc.) that the younger people in the Muslim world can make the point that we won't live in fear and this holy war mindset becomes so small and quiet that it is essentially harmless and is absorbed by the culture at large. This somewhat happened in Iran last year with their election when Twitter and Facebook were used by many Iranians to get information out on what was happening.
Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
 
EZEIZA
Posts: 4421
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 12:09 am

RE: Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Mon Jan 11, 2010 10:53 pm



Quoting StarAC17 (Reply 23):
What you can be optimistic about is that with things like the internet and increased globalization especially with communication made available through the internet (examples being forums like this one, facebook and twitter etc.) that the younger people in the Muslim world can make the point that we won't live in fear and this holy war mindset becomes so small and quiet that it is essentially harmless and is absorbed by the culture at large.

The downside to this however is that Internet also provides a quick link between the various groups, and they can organize better and faster through this quick connection. Hopefully you are right though, and eventually the "good guys" will prevail.
Carp aunque ganes o pierdas ...
 
StarAC17
Posts: 3400
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

RE: Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Mon Jan 11, 2010 11:54 pm



Quoting EZEIZA (Reply 24):

The downside to this however is that Internet also provides a quick link between the various groups, and they can organize better and faster through this quick connection.

Yes but the internet is a fishbowl in a way and nearly everything done on it can be seen or at least traced to somewhere.
Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
 
User avatar
DocLightning
Posts: 19630
Joined: Wed Nov 16, 2005 8:51 am

RE: Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Tue Jan 12, 2010 1:50 am



Quoting EZEIZA (Reply 13):
I truly believe it is the contrary; in fact their power relies on how well organized they are, and their ability to follow orders to the last detail. There's a reason why the most powerful military in the world has not been able to finish with them (not even close really).

On the contrary, the disorganization is precisely *why* they cannot be defeated by conventional means. So you kill Osama Bin Laden. Fine. They don't need him. You capture him and torture him and give him truth serum and actually manage to get everything out of his brain that he's hiding in there (just for argument's sake). You'd learn a lot. And yet Al Qaeda would survive.

The fly in the ointment is that he may not know everything that's going on. All reports are that he had no idea 9/11 was going to happen specifically on that day by those specific people. Obviously, he oversees the network that allows such attacks, but he himself is not the CIC of Al Qaeda. Nobody is. Al Qaeda is a movement, not an army.

In a way, they're more analogous to the hippies of the 60's and 70's than they are to an Army. Imagine if the U.S. Government had sat down with the leaders of the Hippie movement in 1965 or so and agreed that they would legalize marijuana and withdraw from Vietnam if, in return, the Hippies would stop dressing like total retards, start taking baths, and lay off the horrible music in public. Just humor me here:

Who are those leaders? What power do they have? It's meaningless. Now, Al Qaeda has to be more organized than that so that they can have internal funding and supply, but not much more than that. What they really are is a movement of like-minded people who feel that anyone they disagree with should be punished by wanton violence.

What defines AQ is nebulous. Different people within the movement define it and its goals differently. There is no clear chain of command. There is no one leader. Kill one and another appears. OBL is expendible. And so "talking" with them will accomplish very little on the global scale.

Besides, since when did AQ have a monopoly on terrorism?
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
EZEIZA
Posts: 4421
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 12:09 am

RE: Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Tue Jan 12, 2010 2:59 am



Quoting DocLightning (Reply 26):
On the contrary, the disorganization is precisely *why* they cannot be defeated by conventional means

But that's the point, you are looking at them as a conventional enemy. Compared to a highly trained military they might seem disorganized, that's why the military have such a hard time getting them. They are not conventional at all, but very organized in their own way.

At least that's how I see it, and that's why I think it will be very hard, if not impossible, to be able to dismantle any major terrorist group with the use of military force.
Carp aunque ganes o pierdas ...
 
User avatar
DocLightning
Posts: 19630
Joined: Wed Nov 16, 2005 8:51 am

RE: Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Tue Jan 12, 2010 6:44 am



Quoting EZEIZA (Reply 27):


At least that's how I see it, and that's why I think it will be very hard, if not impossible, to be able to dismantle any major terrorist group with the use of military force.

But that disorganization has shown that the dismantling of any terrorist group never happens by intention. They simply die out. But even the IRA couldn't control all of its own members.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
vc10
Posts: 1339
Joined: Thu Nov 15, 2001 4:13 am

RE: Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Tue Jan 12, 2010 11:02 am

If you look at the break up of the European Empires after the second world war military force was nearly always used initially by both sides, but always ended up with negotiations and often the installation of the leader of the terrorist as the leader of the new power

UK--- Kenya, Malaya, Burma, Cyprus and even Northern Ireland

France--- Vietnam, Algeria

The above are the few I can think of at present, but in the end they all ended up with talking , so why not listen to what they want, which might be beyond what you are prepared to give but in the end you can always say you listened and this allows you to own the higher moral ground.

littlevc10
 
baroque
Posts: 12302
Joined: Thu Apr 27, 2006 2:15 pm

RE: Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Tue Jan 12, 2010 11:46 am



Quoting Vc10 (Reply 29):
If you look at the break up of the European Empires after the second world war military force was nearly always used initially by both sides, but always ended up with negotiations and often the installation of the leader of the terrorist as the leader of the new power

UK--- Kenya, Malaya, Burma, Cyprus and even Northern Ireland

Well you are perfectly right and further most of the leaders of the new nations had a common qualification - JB, jailed by the British. Wonder if this means that future rulers will be WAGs, waterboarded at Gitmo.  angel   angel  Funny thing about Gitmo though is the modal (not model) entrant to Gitmo was probably innocent, but probably quite rebellious by the time they were let out.
 
EZEIZA
Posts: 4421
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 12:09 am

RE: Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Tue Jan 12, 2010 1:27 pm



Quoting DocLightning (Reply 28):
But that disorganization has shown that the dismantling of any terrorist group never happens by intention. They simply die out

Eventually the IRA stopped using force after dialogue, end even ETA went through the same path (for some time).
Carp aunque ganes o pierdas ...
 
baroque
Posts: 12302
Joined: Thu Apr 27, 2006 2:15 pm

RE: Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Tue Jan 12, 2010 1:42 pm



Quoting EZEIZA (Reply 31):
Quoting DocLightning (Reply 28):
But that disorganization has shown that the dismantling of any terrorist group never happens by intention. They simply die out

Eventually the IRA stopped using force after dialogue, end even ETA went through the same path (for some time).

You are right EZEIZA, both had their main wings give up on terrorism after negotiations, although the ETA setup seems to have regressed. But there is a more positive example and that is JI abandoning terrorism after being "talked to" by the police (and having some of their leaders knocked off too), so more low key than official negotiations. Also an offshoot that is still trying violence, but JI itself seems to have renounced the tactic.
 
L410Turbolet
Posts: 5423
Joined: Wed May 05, 2004 9:12 am

RE: Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Tue Jan 12, 2010 2:10 pm



Quoting EZEIZA (Reply 6):
Like the country that invades Iraq killing thousands of people in the process?

Vast majority of those thousands killed were a result od various factions of muslims butchering each other.... trying to prove whose version of islam is the proper "religion of peace"
 
EZEIZA
Posts: 4421
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 12:09 am

RE: Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Tue Jan 12, 2010 3:56 pm



Quoting L410Turbolet (Reply 33):
Vast majority of those thousands killed were a result od various factions of muslims butchering each other.... trying to prove whose version of islam is the proper "religion of peace"

Their problem then, but the US still had no reason to be there, and kill still way too many people in the process.
Carp aunque ganes o pierdas ...
 
baroque
Posts: 12302
Joined: Thu Apr 27, 2006 2:15 pm

RE: Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Tue Jan 12, 2010 4:58 pm



Quoting EZEIZA (Reply 34):
Quoting L410Turbolet (Reply 33):
Vast majority of those thousands killed were a result od various factions of muslims butchering each other.... trying to prove whose version of islam is the proper "religion of peace"

Their problem then, but the US still had no reason to be there, and kill still way too many people in the process.

There is also the issue of China House Rules. At least Powell knew that, even if it is now convenient to forget them.
 
ME AVN FAN
Posts: 12970
Joined: Fri May 31, 2002 12:05 am

RE: Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Tue Jan 12, 2010 7:28 pm



Quoting DocLightning (Reply 26):
Different people within the movement define it

True, most of the 11Sep01 people were not fundamentalists but extreme Arab nationalists. The top command is made up by a construction engineer and a medical doctor.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 26):
There is no clear chain of command. There is no one leader

No, el Qaeda has many "franchisees", which means "local" organisations of extremists who use the "brand name" of elQaeda for their activities
 
ME AVN FAN
Posts: 12970
Joined: Fri May 31, 2002 12:05 am

RE: Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Tue Jan 12, 2010 7:38 pm



Quoting L410Turbolet (Reply 33):
Vast majority of those thousands killed were a result od various factions of muslims butchering each other.... trying to prove whose version of islam is the proper "religion of peace"

Sorry but here you have become a victim of their propaganda. The matter is NOT "versions of Islam" but political power and personal feuds.

How many people in total actually died due to the invasion and how many died due to "internal conflicts" is difficult to determine, as you with the statistics available can prove one thing and the contrary. However, much of the "internal strife" was a result of the invasion, or rather of the MISmanagement of the matter by the GWB management. Dwight D Eisenhower in 1944 argued that to conquer a territory means to have twice as many military policemen at hand then soldiers to DO the invasion. But the GWB crew did the contrary, the sent the Iraqi policemen home, but did not replace them with some 50'000 US marshals. Much of the dead in reality were neither a result of the invasion or internal strife but very simply of heavy crime. And please do not try to tell me that this could not be foreseen. A capital of 8 mio people without a serious police presence can be expected to drown in crime. Look at "elQaeda-Iraq". That thing was not a political terrorist organisation but a group of thought after street thugs from Zerqa in Jordan.
 
dxing
Posts: 5859
Joined: Wed Nov 12, 2008 5:14 pm

RE: Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Tue Jan 12, 2010 9:03 pm



Quoting StarAC17 (Reply 14):
This is an ideology that doesn't appear to fear death in any way and is easily able to convince people on the fence on who to side with that the West are the evil ones when we rightly or wrongly retaliate.

Pretty much nailed it there. Very difficult to kill an idea.

Quoting QANTAS077 (Reply 16):
Bin laden is irrelevant..he has been for some time now.

As someone else pointed out, by whom? He is still revered within a larger context than just AQ.

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 20):
He however has to show that HE is ready to negotiate and to talk. He at the other hand is NOT known as an appeaser, and usually first talks and then hits.

OK, so what are we to talk about? As Charles Krauthammer so rightly pointed out in his columm this past week:

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/editorial/outlook/6807374.html

Imagine that Guantanamo were to disappear tomorrow, swallowed in a giant tsunami. Do you think there'd be any less recruiting for al-Qaida in Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, London? Jihadism's list of grievances against the West is not only self-replenishing but endlessly creative. Osama bin Laden's 1998 fatwa commanding universal jihad against America cited as its two top grievances our stationing of troops in Saudi Arabia and Iraqi suffering under anti-Saddam sanctions.

Today, there are virtually no U.S. troops in Saudi Arabia. And the sanctions regime against Iraq was abolished years ago. Has al-Qaida stopped recruiting? Ayman al-Zawahiri often invokes Andalusia in his speeches. For those not steeped in the multivolume lexicon of Islamist grievances, Andalusia refers to Iberia, lost by Islam to Christendom — in 1492.

This is a fanatical religious sect dedicated to establishing the most oppressive medieval theocracy and therefore committed to unending war with America not just because it is infidel but because it represents modernity with its individual liberty, social equality (especially for women) and profound tolerance (religious, sexual, philosophical). You going to change that by evacuating Guantanamo?


which is to say, not matter how much you give it will never be enough to satisfy.

Quoting EZEIZA (Reply 27):
But that's the point, you are looking at them as a conventional enemy.

In part you have too, but we also look at them in unconventional ways as well, such as where their financing is coming from and attempting to shut that down when we find a link. Or with whom they are communicating with in this country. It's much more than just the soldier on the front line in Afghanistan.

Quoting EZEIZA (Reply 27):
At least that's how I see it, and that's why I think it will be very hard, if not impossible, to be able to dismantle any major terrorist group with the use of military force.

Military force alone agreed.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 28):
But that disorganization has shown that the dismantling of any terrorist group never happens by intention. They simply die out

Or they lose their funding which is what happened to a number of terrorist groups when the Soviet Union ceased to exist. As long as there is oil money in the middle east though that will be a much tougher expectation.
Warm winds blowing, heating blue skies, a road that goes forever, I'm going to Texas!
 
TheCol
Posts: 1857
Joined: Wed Jan 03, 2007 9:30 am

RE: Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Wed Jan 13, 2010 7:44 am



Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 20):
But Mullah Omar is an Afghan and was a leading person in the Taliban regime.

If I remember correctly, he's also close to OBL. I wouldn't rule him out of a power grab, in the case of OBL's death, especially since he has access to funding that the other leaders don't.

Quoting EZEIZA (Reply 21):

That's why we are damned if we do, and damned if we don't. If we don't put the main focus on rebuilding the country and improving their lives, then they will blame the West for all the damage caused by the war.

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 20):
elQaeda is not a country

But they would like to turn the world into their own theocracy.

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 20):
Ali Abdullah Saleh has NOT lost a war

He's loosing it.

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 22):
To say that "the shit hits the fan" is nonsense. I rather expect that at a given time one of the warlords, possibly Rashid Dostum, will by force "unite" his country.

You are obviously underestimating the Taliban and AQ.

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 22):
the "anti-western forces" mostly are locals, as the conscripts now are on the side of the "Khan of Kabul"

That's not what the guys on the front are saying, and they have a better picture than the rest of us.

Quoting Vc10 (Reply 29):
but always ended up with negotiations and often the installation of the leader of the terrorist as the leader of the new power

Which is obviously out of the question in this case.

Quoting Vc10 (Reply 29):
which might be beyond what you are prepared to give but in the end you can always say you listened and this allows you to own the higher moral ground.

Which is moot, and doesn't mean anything in the long run.

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 36):
most of the 11Sep01 people were not fundamentalists but extreme Arab nationalists.

Please elaborate.
No matter how random things may appear, there's always a plan.
 
ME AVN FAN
Posts: 12970
Joined: Fri May 31, 2002 12:05 am

RE: Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Wed Jan 13, 2010 7:50 am



Quoting DXing (Reply 38):
He however has to show that HE is ready to negotiate and to talk. He at the other hand is NOT known as an appeaser, and usually first talks and then hits.

OK, so what are we to talk about? As Charles Krauthammer so rightly pointed out

"We" ? No, I speak about President General Ali Abdullah Saleh. And this man does not and will talk about the rest of the world. He will offer them an amnesty in exchange for their stopping their activities inside Yemen. That they will not be too much interested in his clemency is also clear to him. And when they will have refused his advance, he when hitting them cannot be accused not to have tried the peaceful approach.

When after formal unification of the two Yemen, the defacto separate South Yemen resisted to accept the Sana'a government, he did the same. He negotiated and made offers, but prepared a sizeable army corps, and when the talks collapsed, moved his army corps into Aden within two days.

What Mr Krauthammer pointed out was NOT Yemeni politics but world politics.

And there is an important point now and that is that if those elQaeda folks in Yemen want to negotiate they have to appear in public, and so will reveal there whereabouts. If they do not come forward this will be a refusal of the talks-offer !
 
ME AVN FAN
Posts: 12970
Joined: Fri May 31, 2002 12:05 am

RE: Yemen President: Open To Talks With Al-Qaeda

Wed Jan 13, 2010 8:06 am

Quoting TheCol (Reply 39):
But Mullah Omar is an Afghan and was a leading person in the Taliban regime.

If I remember correctly, he's also close to OBL. I wouldn't rule him out of a power grab, in the case of OBL's death, especially since he has access to funding that the other leaders don't.

They were very close partners, as OBL was the weapons supplier of the Taliban regime. They were known to pay in time and that was loved by the man. AND they offered him areas to establish training facilities. But as a NON-Arab, Mullah Omar cannot join the higher echelons of elQaeda. And he is NOT a member of elQaeda.

Quoting TheCol (Reply 39):
elQaeda is not a country

But they would like to turn the world into their own theocracy.

that for sure, yes

Quoting TheCol (Reply 39):
Ali Abdullah Saleh has NOT lost a war

He's loosing it.

No, he is to win. But has to play for more time. Attacking an irregular force like elQaeda is difficult

and this report from the BBC shows that elQaeda may already have started to lose out in Yemen :
............................................
-
The alleged leader of an al-Qaeda cell in Yemen has been killed in an exchange of fire with security forces, according to a provincial governor.

Abdullah Mehdar is said to have been the leader of an al-Qaeda group in the province of Shabwa, 375 miles (600km) east of the capital, Sanaa.

Reports said security forces were hunting other members of the cell.

The governor of Shabwa province, Ali Hassan al-Ahmadi, said from the provincial capital, Ataq: "Abdullah Mehdar was killed last night by security forces, which had besieged the house he hid in."

-
...........................................................................................



Quoting TheCol (Reply 39):
Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 22):
To say that "the shit hits the fan" is nonsense. I rather expect that at a given time one of the warlords, possibly Rashid Dostum, will by force "unite" his country.

You are obviously underestimating the Taliban and AQ.

Taliban and elQaeda underestimated General Rashid Dostum. And the Taliban movement no longer is a single organisation. This is what Peter Scholl-Latour learnt from both Western military commanders and from Afghan contacts inside Afghanistan. And he also learnt that Gulbuddin Hekmatyar has pulled out his movement from what used to be the Taliban

Quoting TheCol (Reply 39):
Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 22):
the "anti-western forces" mostly are locals, as the conscripts now are on the side of the "Khan of Kabul"

That's not what the guys on the front are saying, and they have a better picture than the rest of us.

A) The conscripts are recruited by the Afghan government, which before 2002 was the Taliban regime
B) The mess in which they are highlights the fact that they apparently do not have a good "picture"
C) The various "guys on the front" say different things due to having different information

Quoting TheCol (Reply 39):
Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 36):
most of the 11Sep01 people were not fundamentalists but extreme Arab nationalists.

Please elaborate.

Look into all available reports about the culprits in question. At least four of them in personal contact a year before were NOT fundamentalists but rather convinced Arab nationalists. You may say that also OBL to some extent is an Arab nationalist, but in his case it is clearly predominantly a fundamentalist Islamic position. While Arab nationalism is a rather secularist ideology.

[Edited 2010-01-13 00:25:59]

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests