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kc135topboom
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US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Fri Jan 29, 2010 2:36 pm

Today the US Commerce Department report is the strongest evidence to date that the worst recession since the 1930s ended last year. It has? Where? Unemployment is still (officially) at 10%, and (unofficially) at 17.8% and climbing.

Here in Texas, we have managed to avoid some of the worse conditions and other factors of this econmic downturn. But, I still do not see any improvement in the economy.

Only the Obama Administration seems to think economic conditions are better today than one year ago. Under Bush, there was real growth at least for a few years, 2003 through 2006. The economy has tanked since 2007 under Bush, and continues today under Obama.

To me, these numbers are an out and out lie. I know no one, liberal or conservitive, or anyone in between who actually believes this lie to the American people and the world.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010.../economy-grows-percent-th-quarter/
 
baroque
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Fri Jan 29, 2010 2:50 pm



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
To me, these numbers are an out and out lie. I know no one, liberal or conservitive, or anyone in between who actually believes this lie to the American people and the world.

My my another hoax or worse yet a set of hoaxes. Which numbers do you not believe and why?

The unemployment figure?

Projections of growth?

That employment tends to lag recovery?

CBO last year seemed to be projecting growth of 3.25% for 2010.

Anyway what would be new? You can find the NY Times in 2007 saying this:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/02/bu...ss/02iht-wbmarket03.1.8159722.html
U.S. economy defies projections
By Floyd Norris
Published: Saturday, November 3, 2007


Well they were soon proved right on that one, just not the way they expected. Only eight months to go although if you look at unemployment, the recession had started as those words were being written.!
 
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Dreadnought
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Fri Jan 29, 2010 3:13 pm

Let's break it down a little bit:

I compared the last quarter's real GDP vs the average quarterly GDP for 2008 ( which would include the crash in the last quarter), and vs the average for 2007, before the crash. That should give us a better idea of where we stand.

Personal Consumption
$9299 Billion (2005 Inflation-Adjusted Dollars)
0% Change from 2008
0% Change from 2007

The zero change is because of greater services - Durable and non-durable goods purchases are both sharply down.

Gross Private Investment
$1602 Billion
-19% Change from 2008
-25% Change from 2007

This includes business investment and private investments (IRAs and so forth)

Net Exports (negative means more imports than exports)
-$341 Billion
-31% Change from 2008
-47% Change from 2007

This measure is actually good - Exports are flat or down only slightly, Imports are down sharply.

Government Spending
$2584 Billion
3% Change from 2008
6% Change from 2007

State expenditure is flat. Federal expenditures are up 7% and 15%.

Total GDP
$13155 Billion
-1% Change from 2008
-1% Change from 2007

Source: http://www.bea.gov/national/index.htm#gdp

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

The high growth number is because you are measuring Q4 of 2009 with Q4 of 2008, which was right after the Mortgage industry crash when everyone was hunkering down and GDP was WAY down.


Conclusion: We're still neck-deep.

[Edited 2010-01-29 07:16:58]
Forget dogs and cats - Spay and neuter your liberals.
 
NIKV69
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Fri Jan 29, 2010 3:30 pm

I think we all need to relax here, sure things are bad but not even close to the 1930's. We are not sitting on line waiting for bread or living in tents in the dust bowl. The MSNBCs and CNNs have been mostly responsible for scaring the hell out people. We have started a slow recovery (which I feel has been slowed due to Obama's refusal to slash taxes and give a tax holiday for payroll taxes and businesses) but we are slowly pulling out. I am not sure how factual this info is but we need to stop the sky is falling routine.
Hey that guy with the private jet can bail us out! Why? HE CAN AFFORD IT!
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Fri Jan 29, 2010 3:31 pm



Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 2):
The high growth number is because you are measuring Q4 of 2009 with Q4 of 2008, which was right after the Mortgage industry crash when everyone was hunkering down and GDP was WAY down.


Conclusion: We're still neck-deep.

Oh, I agree with that when comparing 2008Q4 to 2009Q4 only.

But, it is this statement from the Obama Commerce Dept. saying the 'recession' ended in 2009 that is a bold faced lie.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
Today the US Commerce Department report is the strongest evidence to date that the worst recession since the 1930s ended last year.



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010.../economy-grows-percent-th-quarter/



Quoting Baroque (Reply 1):
My my another hoax or worse yet a set of hoaxes. Which numbers do you not believe and why?

The unemployment figure?

Projections of growth?

That employment tends to lag recovery?

CBO last year seemed to be projecting growth of 3.25% for 2010.

Your 2007 NYT link is no longer relevent. The unemployment figure is a number reall people base their livelyhood on, not some political statement from political hacks. Yes, employment does lag behind the economy, but are you saying the unemployment rate in the US (I don't know what it is in Austraila) is finally going to start going down in the next few months?

I also would not put a lot of faith in the CBO projected numbers of a 3.25% increase in the US economy during 2010. Can it happen? Yes, but that is not the question. The question is will it happen? I don't see many, if any indicators saying it will. Remember, the CBO is a branch of the US Congress and will put out only the information they are told to put out.
 
kappel
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Fri Jan 29, 2010 3:54 pm

A lot of countries are reporting they are out of the recession, such as Germany and the UK. Jobs usually follow months after recovery. It can be up to 6 months before the jobless rate finally decreases. In fact, it can increase even more while the country is officially out of recession. That's why many are saying the recession is over, but we're not out of the woods yet. If unemployment still rises even further (this is true not only for the US but also other countries in the same position), we may slip back into recession.

But to call it a bald faced lie is IMHO quite hyperbolic, seeing how other countries are also reporting they are out of the recession.

Quoting NIKV69 (Reply 3):
MSNBCs and CNNs have been mostly responsible for scaring the hell out people.

That's the job of the media, at least they think it is. Whether it's CNN, Fox (you omitted them, but they are hardly a bastion of positive thinking), or whatever. Positive news doesn't seem to sell.

Quoting NIKV69 (Reply 3):
I think we all need to relax here, sure things are bad but not even close to the 1930's.

Indeed, nowhere close to that. Thankfully.

Quoting NIKV69 (Reply 3):
to slash taxes and give a tax holiday for payroll taxes and businesses

This is always a fine line. You can increase taxes to increase government earnings, cutting deficit and making it possible to stimulate the economy. But increase it too much, you reach the opposite stifling business, increasing labour cost, increasing unemployment and ultimately increasing the government deficit.

On the other hand, you can lower taxes, which may reduce labour costs. However, this will decrease government earnings and it's not sure that the companies will use the lower labour costs to hire more people. They can also pocket those earnings to increase profitability or decrease their losses.

There is no single best solution in these cases. That's why you usually see a combination of stimulus (not just in this recession but there are examples in other recessions as well) and not increasing taxes (IMHO indeed the absolute worst you can do in a recession) and other measures to try to get companies to hire again.

The funny thing is, if you talk to ten different economists what the best way is to get out of a recession, you get ten different answers. The same thing with the Bush tax cuts, half will say it had only a short term effect and the long term effect was worse than the benefit it brought, others will say it delayed the recession or prevented worse. Who to believe?
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Flighty
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Fri Jan 29, 2010 4:04 pm

Generally, people believe they are in a recession most of the time, or "bad economic times."

They are only forced to give up the pessimism when:

A) Stock market is at a record high;
B) Full employment;
C) Real estate is at a record high.


Most recently we had this in the late 1990s (99). We were also basically there in 2007. Otherwise, starting in about 2007, the entertainment-media started saying we were in terrible economic trouble (starting with high oil prices). The irony was, oil prices were only high because the entire world was so prosperous.

But, a dead clock is still right twice a day. Pessimism has been an argument in America most of the time, and it still is today. Yet, we are still the biggest economic winners of world history. This does not guarantee we are psychologically equipped to deal with that.
 
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Aaron747
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Fri Jan 29, 2010 4:14 pm



Quoting Kappel (Reply 5):
But to call it a bald faced lie is IMHO quite hyperbolic, seeing how other countries are also reporting they are out of the recession.

In the US it's really not hyperbole - regardless of the administration, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been cooking economic numbers for a variety of political purposes since the early 1970s. There is a slew of written work on that subject - a simple google search will yield plenty of results.

The CBO is far more even handed but they are prone to the occasional mistake. The best way to analyze economic data in the US is to take sample data with same formulaic approaches from several reporting sources, find a confidence interval and go with the mean or median, whichever you particularly prefer.

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 2):

The high growth number is because you are measuring Q4 of 2009 with Q4 of 2008, which was right after the Mortgage industry crash when everyone was hunkering down and GDP was WAY down.

I was about to post the exact same thing. Quarterly growth figures are always reported year over year.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
kappel
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Fri Jan 29, 2010 4:15 pm



Quoting Flighty (Reply 6):
Pessimism has been an argument in America most of the time,

The US is not the only country with this problem unfortunately. I see the same in Europe. People seem to not know what a self fulfilling prophecy is. What happens when people are convinced the economy is bad (when there are still plenty of jobs)? They stop spending. When that happens, the economy grinds to a halt. And then it becomes a downward spiral. And that is damned hard to stop. Remember in 2008 how some were predicting this recession would last at least 5 years? Now, more and more countries are reporting they are out of the recession.
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AGM100
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Fri Jan 29, 2010 4:47 pm



Quoting NIKV69 (Reply 3):
I think we all need to relax here, sure things are bad but not even close to the 1930's



Correct ...they talked it down as much as they could and pulled a few magic tricks with FM's to create doubt . Blowing the bubble up and gleefully waiting to put the pin it .... love it ! The Dems knew the bubble was growing with the over valued mortgage industry but claimed all is well and kept the money going though too the big banks. Its hard to imagine that they were that smart ... I mean Maxine Waters ? but they're was certainly people who could see it coming and calculated its toll politically.

That said ...

My neighbor sure is happy ... he works for a big construction company. The company is piling up state stimulus (recovery) money putting bridges over dry washes ... digging and preparing trenches for future sewer and utility , and bolstering bridges in the flood plains area.

The recovery act is working in those areas ..and he and his family are thankful for the work. A few months ago , I was paying him for yard work so that he could feed his kids ... so that is a positive change I guess. Frankly I have been thinking of shutting down and going to work for them ... construction is good rewarding work and it keeps in good shape !
You dig the hole .. I fill the hole . 100% employment !
 
FlyPNS1
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Fri Jan 29, 2010 5:14 pm



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 4):
Yes, employment does lag behind the economy, but are you saying the unemployment rate in the US (I don't know what it is in Austraila) is finally going to start going down in the next few months?

It is possible for the economy to grow without creating jobs.

As is usually the case, the economy is NEVER as good as it appears in boom times (think the bubble economies of the late 90's and mid 00's) and the economy is NEVER as bad as it appears in bad times.
 
flanker
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Fri Jan 29, 2010 5:17 pm

Where you ask?

In the government! DUH.. shhh 

 rotfl 
Calling an illegal alien an 'undocumented immigrant' is like calling a drug dealer an unlicensed pharmacist
 
Flighty
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Fri Jan 29, 2010 7:13 pm



Quoting Flanker (Reply 11):
In the government! DUH.

Right, the government is growing easily at 5%, probably more.

Health care is STILL growing.

And, ask any business person: are things as bad as 2008? Are things getting better? Of course they are a little bit better than those doomsday months. So, yes the recession is OVER. It doesn't mean everybody's happy. People rarely are. But, some of this gloom was manufactured by the professional entertainers in the media. There's no guarantee what THEY said was true. They were just fanning the flames.

Listen to Public Radio sometimes. Their attitude is always negative. The "incompleteness" of prosperity, or the superficiality and pointlessness of modern life, or whatever.

Even in much-ballyhooed boom economy in China, not everybody is happy. But, it is nonetheless a boom economy. And ours ain't bad. But, with enough mismanagement, and psychotic leaders, anything can be endangered, including the US economy.
 
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STT757
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Fri Jan 29, 2010 7:19 pm



Quoting NIKV69 (Reply 3):
The MSNBCs and CNNs have been mostly responsible for scaring the hell out people.



That's the job of the media, to question authority. If Foxnews, the New York Times (yes the Times) were acting more like critical media outlets instead of cheerleaders perhaps the idiocy of invading Iraq would never have happened.
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StuckInCA
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Fri Jan 29, 2010 7:26 pm



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 4):
But, it is this statement from the Obama Commerce Dept. saying the 'recession' ended in 2009 that is a bold faced lie.

Don't worry man, it's only a "mental recession," right?
 
san747
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Fri Jan 29, 2010 7:35 pm

Everything I've read from various sources that are considered left and right-wing are indicating that the negative growth is slowing down, if not completely stopped already. I don't think anyone has said we're out of the woods yet, but at least it seems we're moving back in the right direction. Whatever you want to believe is the reason- Obama, the cyclical nature of the economy, taxes or lack thereof, etc.- I think the general consensus is that the worst of the storm has passed, unless I'm completely misinterpreting what I'm reading and hearing.
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747srule
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Fri Jan 29, 2010 10:25 pm

I have been out of work for over a year,so I don't see any growth!
Jesus is the way,the truth,and the life
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Fri Jan 29, 2010 10:30 pm



Quoting Aaron747 (Reply 7):
Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 2):

The high growth number is because you are measuring Q4 of 2009 with Q4 of 2008, which was right after the Mortgage industry crash when everyone was hunkering down and GDP was WAY down.

I was about to post the exact same thing. Quarterly growth figures are always reported year over year.

Yes, I know and that makes the numbers look artificially good, but in reality that also makes the number completely useless. If the measureed the growth quarter to quarter (in this case comparing the numbers from the 3rd q to the 4th Q) and adjust them for seasonal trends (like Christmas shopping), the numbers would be more meaningful and will show a trend, up or down.

Quoting StuckInCA (Reply 14):
Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 4):
But, it is this statement from the Obama Commerce Dept. saying the 'recession' ended in 2009 that is a bold faced lie.

Don't worry man, it's only a "mental recession," right?

That's not what my savings accounts are saying.
 
StuckInCA
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Fri Jan 29, 2010 10:48 pm



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 17):
That's not what my savings accounts are saying.

Sorry to hear that. I share your pain.

It was actually a humorous poke at the failed McCain campaign. All in good fun!
 
MoltenRock
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Fri Jan 29, 2010 11:05 pm

Most of the countries in eastern Asia didn't even stop growing, much less have a recession. If they did have a decline it was very small. Singapore had a deep 6 month pull back, and a quick rebound to around 2% increase for the year. Singapore is a bit unique because of its small size, wealthiness, open economy and global ties to the west.

China's 4th quarter GDP +10.7% and ended 2009 up 8.2% over 2008
South Korea's was up .5% for all of 2009
Philippines was up 1.8% for the 4th quarter, .9% for all of 2009
Indonesia up 4.5% in 2009
Australia up 1.3% in 2009, 4.25% growth expected 2010
ASEAN countries as a group were up 6.06% in 2008, 4.34% in 2009, and to be up 5.23% in 2010.

Additionally, the ASEAN group of countries have fared quite well in managing their debt loads which early 2009 were at 39% of GDP. By contrast Canada's is at 53%, USA 102%, Australia 13.1%, France 79%, Germany 86%, Turkey 51%, Italy 122%, and Argentina 50% expected for the end of 2010.

The US and Japan both hobbled by massive debt will have to look to the Asian economies to help pull them back out of their financial hole. Europe will be a small rise I believe as their economies are much more sound, with higher savings rates by their citizens, and much smaller debt loads, but have suffered the brunt of the US bank folly the most, given their banks ties to the USA. Fortunately, Asian banks didn't buy into the scam investments.

My guess is the government's unemployed # in the USA will be 8.5% around election time. It's going to be a bit of a slow slog as consumers continue to pay off debt, keep spending down, and government and corporate spending will have to carry them.
 
comorin
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Fri Jan 29, 2010 11:33 pm



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 17):
If the measureed the growth quarter to quarter (in this case comparing the numbers from the 3rd q to the 4th Q) and adjust them for seasonal trends (like Christmas shopping), the numbers would be more meaningful and will show a trend, up or down

These numbers are for Real GDP, which means they are seasonally adjusted. Trust those numbers, man!

Quoting Aaron747 (Reply 7):
I was about to post the exact same thing. Quarterly growth figures are always reported year over year



Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 2):
The high growth number is because you are measuring Q4 of 2009 with Q4 of 2008,

Sorry, the numbers are Quarter to Quarter - Q3 to Q4 - not q4 08 vs q4 09 - where did you guys come up with this?

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
To me, these numbers are an out and out lie. I know no one, liberal or conservitive, or anyone in between who actually believes this lie to the American people and the world.

I do. I have actually met the Undersecretary who runs the Bureau of Economic Analysis at The Department of Commerce. He was a nice guy with a beard. It would take 100s of some of our nations top minds fudging and colluding to com up with wrong numbers. National Accounts and Econometrics are well developed methodologies with observable consequences like Fluid Mechanics.

The numbers put out by the NBER and the BEA are the basis for most econometric forecasting models used by Corporate America and by Wall Street. Professionals from around the world come to them to learn at the feet of the masters. In my opinion, these are the jewels within our government system. Don't forget that the National Bureau of Standards and Technology, another arm of the Commerce Dept, has a Nobel laureate scientist, as does the Dept of Energy. while were at it, think NASA, JPL, Fermilab, National Ignition Facility - the envy of the world!
I love the US Government, wish it was twice as big!  duck 

Back on topic: Guys, please read this pdf - it is the original release so that you understand what is being said:

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/nati...l/gdp/2010/pdf/gdp4q09_adv_fax.pdf
 
Flighty
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Fri Jan 29, 2010 11:48 pm



Quoting Comorin (Reply 20):
It would take 100s of some of our nations top minds fudging and colluding to com up with wrong numbers

People still want to believe the "economy" is an emotional concept, and that when the country's emotions are low, the economy is doing badly, and the layman gets to declare such. That's like the fat guy saying, "I feel great, I don't care what my doctor says, I am very healthy" as he takes out a cigarette while eating a steak, at 350 lbs. What you feel does matter -- it's true -- but the facts matter more.

Orders are up this year; they were up 4Q last year. Retail is saying it. Car sales are saying it. The NBER and everybody says it. So, it's true. But don't expect the media to catch on for a very long time, maybe until the next bubble already inflates and bursts, the media complaining all the while. There will be outrage over "outsourcing" ad infinitum.
 
comorin
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Sat Jan 30, 2010 12:59 am



Quoting Flighty (Reply 21):
People still want to believe the "economy" is an emotional concept, and that when the country's emotions are low, the economy is doing badly, and the layman gets to declare such.

Your point is well taken. I remember the days when we had the 'Misery Index' as an indicator!

In NYC, the Economy is lousy. It has nothing to do with any particular number (even though the numbers are lousy too!) This translates into your favorite restaurant closing down, unemployed friends, and other social metrics.

I guess going back to KC135's points, he is right in that it just doesn't feel like the recession is over, much less a 5.7% jump in the growth. That good feeling will only return with full employment.

Economists are happy because we've averted the dreaded double-dip recession. Meanwhile, thank god for low inflation...
 
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Dreadnought
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Sat Jan 30, 2010 1:14 am

Quoting Comorin (Reply 20):
Sorry, the numbers are Quarter to Quarter - Q3 to Q4 - not q4 08 vs q4 09 - where did you guys come up with this?

You are correct - I misheard a talking head on CNN.

However the breakdown I provided in Reply 2 was correct. Compared to last year and the year before, the real economy is still stagnant or depressed, with the exception of government spending, which artificially raises GDP without actually benefiting anyone, and a reduction in imports, because we can't afford to buy as many BMWs and Mercedes, which translates to GDP growth as well (like a double-negative).

Personal spending and private and business investment are all down.

Before you ask, the reason that I say that government spending doesn't really help is that the government borrowed money from china to dig up and repave the road at the end of my street. Big Recovery Act signs everywhere. Traffic was screwed up for a couple of months, and now that they are finished it's exactly like it was before - because there was nothing wrong with the pavement before. Complete and utter waste of money, and now we have to pay China back.

[Edited 2010-01-29 17:18:52]
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Gemuser
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Sat Jan 30, 2010 1:42 am



Quoting MoltenRock (Reply 19):
Additionally, the ASEAN group of countries have fared quite well in managing their debt loads which early 2009 were at 39% of GDP. By contrast Canada's is at 53%, USA 102%, Australia 13.1%, France 79%, Germany 86%, Turkey 51%, Italy 122%, and Argentina 50% expected for the end of 2010

Just out of sheer curiosity, nothing else, why did you include the Australian debt/GDP of 13.1% when most of the others were >79%.? Seems like an aberrant data point.

Gemuser
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baroque
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Sat Jan 30, 2010 3:44 am



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 4):
Your 2007 NYT link is no longer relevent. The unemployment figure is a number reall people base their livelyhood on, not some political statement from political hacks.

And you do not find it a little amusing/ironical whatever that just as the recession was starting - as shown so elegantly in the link from Comorin for Quarterly data, that the NY TImes wrote:
U.S. economy defies projections
By Floyd Norris
Published: Saturday, November 3, 2007

Just at the time when it was actually doing what the pessimistic projections said it would do - TANK!!

I was pointing to a real false prediction to highlight how much more reasonable are the ones you are complaining about.

As Flighty reports

Quoting Flighty (Reply 6):
Generally, people believe they are in a recession most of the time, or "bad economic times."

They are only forced to give up the pessimism when:

A) Stock market is at a record high;
B) Full employment;
C) Real estate is at a record high.


Most recently we had this in the late 1990s (99). We were also basically there in 2007. Otherwise, starting in about 2007, the entertainment-media started saying we were in terrible economic trouble (starting with high oil prices). The irony was, oil prices were only high because the entire world was so prosperous.

some were on the doom and gloom track in late 2007 - and they were right. Dougloid (of late lamented fame) had couple of threads on the sub prime BEFORE it happened. But was there much interest - nah!

Quoting Comorin (Reply 20):
I do. I have actually met the Undersecretary who runs the Bureau of Economic Analysis at The Department of Commerce. He was a nice guy with a beard. It would take 100s of some of our nations top minds fudging and colluding to com up with wrong numbers. National Accounts and Econometrics are well developed methodologies with observable consequences like Fluid Mechanics.

The numbers put out by the NBER and the BEA are the basis for most econometric forecasting models used by Corporate America and by Wall Street. Professionals from around the world come to them to learn at the feet of the masters. In my opinion, these are the jewels within our government system. Don't forget that the National Bureau of Standards and Technology, another arm of the Commerce Dept, has a Nobel laureate scientist, as does the Dept of Energy. while were at it, think NASA, JPL, Fermilab, National Ignition Facility - the envy of the world!

Nice reference, but you could be in breach of rules there Comorin putting out documentation from authoritative sources.  angel 

As you post, it will not feel better until employment grows and that is a lagging indicator, and feeling better has an even longer lag. But anyone wishing to plonk this ALL on Obama needs to explain how he was so influential 3 quarters before he took office.

Re the jewels, could I suggest you start a thread on that very topic to balance the government is bad FULL STOP theory of how the world should be run?

Quoting Gemuser (Reply 24):
Quoting MoltenRock (Reply 19):
Additionally, the ASEAN group of countries have fared quite well in managing their debt loads which early 2009 were at 39% of GDP. By contrast Canada's is at 53%, USA 102%, Australia 13.1%, France 79%, Germany 86%, Turkey 51%, Italy 122%, and Argentina 50% expected for the end of 2010

Just out of sheer curiosity, nothing else, why did you include the Australian debt/GDP of 13.1% when most of the others were >79%.? Seems like an aberrant data point.

Cos it is important my friend. Aberrant only in being different, not in being wrong. That is why it does not matter so much that Rudd has spent big to keep us afloat, we can afford to do so much better than the US and Italy could. Before this near catastrophe (and it would have been a real catastrophe if the neo cons had had their way and let the banks fail), Aus was on the other side, with a credit on the Fed balance.
 
MoltenRock
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Sat Jan 30, 2010 8:24 am



Quoting Gemuser (Reply 24):
Just out of sheer curiosity, nothing else, why did you include the Australian debt/GDP of 13.1% when most of the others were >79%.? Seems like an aberrant data point.

I got the data from our internal company documents for economic activity and economic health for the various countries we do business in. I provided it as a sampling of what other countries out there were doing managing their economies and debt loads. Australia seems to do a fantastic job of it, and keeping their public debt extremely low.

For a quick comparison here's an official IMF estimation of GDP to debt % chart that is a bit older than our data points, but from last year on projections:

 
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kc135topboom
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Sat Jan 30, 2010 2:42 pm



Quoting StuckInCA (Reply 18):
It was actually a humorous poke at the failed McCain campaign.

It would be humorous if McCain didn't plan to loose. Then again, I doubt we would be any better off with a McCain Administration than we are with the Obama Administration.

Quoting Comorin (Reply 20):
I love the US Government, wish it was twice as big!

Haven't learned your lesson yet, have you?

Quoting Comorin (Reply 22):
I guess going back to KC135's points, he is right in that it just doesn't feel like the recession is over, much less a 5.7% jump in the growth. That good feeling will only return with full employment.

I like the employment numbers to be as close to 'full employment' as possible. Then there really is money circulating in the economy as people buy things and keep other people at work.

Quoting Comorin (Reply 22):
Economists are happy because we've averted the dreaded double-dip recession.

I don't think we are anywhere near out of the woods, yet.

Quoting Comorin (Reply 22):
Meanwhile, thank god for low inflation...

That is good, for now, but with the printing presses running on overtime (Bush and Obama), inflation cannot be kept in check for long. Plus, it keeps the dollar unsable.
 
baroque
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Sat Jan 30, 2010 2:57 pm



Quoting MoltenRock (Reply 26):
Australia seems to do a fantastic job of it, and keeping their public debt extremely low.

Actually the only puzzle is why in 2007 in the table it shows as 8.9% when the Feds were supposed to be in net surplus. 13.9% now is either right or so close it does not matter. There is the question of at what cost we have kept the debt that low, but that is a different thread.

The really amazing thing about that 13.9% is that it has not resulted in an overly strong currency, the Aus $ is high now, but it seems more because of commodity prices than a low figure for debt. There is probably a lesson in that too.
 
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Dreadnought
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Sat Jan 30, 2010 11:45 pm



Quoting Baroque (Reply 28):
The really amazing thing about that 13.9% is that it has not resulted in an overly strong currency, the Aus $ is high now, but it seems more because of commodity prices than a low figure for debt. There is probably a lesson in that too.

It's just like your own debt. If you make $100K per year, and you have debts totaling $13K, you're doing OK - you can easily service that debt. $50K of debt, ehhh, OK. $100 K of debt, and you are in a bit of trouble (and we are not talking about a mortgage here - this is debts like you would build up on credit cards which you used for current expenditures).

So yes, Australia could get away with increasing their debt. The problem is to spend it on something you need, and that does not require you to later raise taxes. It's easy to become addicted to deficit spending, as the US and other companies did.
Forget dogs and cats - Spay and neuter your liberals.
 
texan
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Sun Jan 31, 2010 1:30 am



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
Unemployment is still (officially) at 10%, and (unofficially) at 17.8% and climbing.

And is likely to stay that way through mid-2011 unless there is massive government intervention. Texas's unemployment figures also just crept up.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
Only the Obama Administration seems to think economic conditions are better today than one year ago.

And when Bush was in office and getting the same economic growth without jobs, he and the Republicans were saying the same thing. This is not some "Obama phenomenon." It happens in politics. If the Repubs were in power they'd be claiming the same damn thing. The Repubs were wrong during the Bush years and Obama is wrong now. Yes, the stimulus package helped lessen job losses, but it didn't do nearly enough. But this isn't the place to debate the stimulus package.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
Under Bush, there was real growth at least for a few years, 2003 through 2006. The economy has tanked since 2007 under Bush, and continues today under Obama.

And blaming Obama for creating this whole mess is just as stupid as blaming Bush for creating this whole mess. This was set in motion long before either one of them, or even Clinton, were elected. Few people from either party, though, seem to give a damn about finding the root of our problems and fixing them. Of course, why would you when you can just play the blame game?

It is all well and good for people to play the blame game. But it won't get you anywhere. If you place blame without putting out suggestions on how to fix the damn problems, you're not helping either.

For the record, though, I agree that a jobless recovery is a myth. There ain't no recovery if there ain't no jobs. If Congress pulled its collective head out of its butt long enough to really assess the situation, they might see that a lot of us are pissed at all of them: at the Democrats for not getting anything done; at the Republicans for saying no to every damn thing that comes out and threatening to filibuster 80% of the bills offered; and at the President for not showing enough leadership.

What do we need? Jobs, obviously. That pretty much requires more government spending. Republicans should realize this and accept that the government needs to spend money to see us through the recession. What they should do is make sure the Democrats don't go overboard and start spending money willy nilly. Make the spending targeted toward industry. Give an investment tax break to companies that purchase new technologies made at least 50% in the United States. This will last for a period of six months. During those six months, companies who invest in new technology will not have to pay taxes on their purchases. This helps increase the flow of money between businesses, and the new orders should make the producing companies hire more people. When people get hired, they have a cash flow which they spend on more goods, increasing service sector jobs. Voila, the start to a recovery.

But the effects wouldn't be felt for at least one year. Anyone who expects Congress or the President to create a magic jobs pill and have the country back to full employment is delusional. It takes time and a combination of business and government spending.

Once the economy is back on track, the government should gradually reduce its spending and cut salary and jobs while increasing efficiency. The government, basically, should do the opposite of what the public does: save in good times, spend in bad. We don't need governmental assistance as much when times are good. We definitely need it when times are bad.

Texan
"I have always imagined that Paradise will be a kind of library."
 
Okie
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Sun Jan 31, 2010 1:41 am



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
Only the Obama Administration seems to think economic conditions are better today than one year ago



Agreed.

That is the headline and the present administration relies on the fact that their supporters, either media or voters are not smart enough to look any further than the headline.
We are fast approaching the tipping point where government workers and entitlement programs are paying for 50% of the electorates income. Not too many are going to vote themselves out of a paycheck.

With a 4+ million job loss per year somewhere the pace has to slow down because there are not, percentage wise, as many jobs left.

I just do not see any major improvement anytime soon, I did not fall off the turnip truck last night and have seen a few presidents come and go, good, bad and in between. However, I have never and I mean never seen an administration with so much contempt towards business large or small. I have never seen an administration with so many special interest groups and lobbyist incorporated. The list goes on but back to whether business is going to grow employment, I do not think the present administration is going to get very far trying to get businesses to employ additional workers or grow when they are on constant attack from the administration.

The Obama administration is just trying to make a few headlines about job creation, it has been a year so far and they have not done anything other than create a lot of false headlines and waste a lot of money. I do not think there will be an epiphany, you have to realize what the problem is first.

Okie
 
texan
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Sun Jan 31, 2010 1:52 am



Quoting Okie (Reply 31):
That is the headline and the present administration relies on the fact that their supporters, either media or voters are not smart enough to look any further than the headline.

It is the headline of any administration no matter who is in power. I would bet everything I have that when Bush's economic growth numbers came out amidst rising unemployment you didn't call him on b.s. Take off your blinders. Politicians use numbers to their advantage, and if you think the media or his supporters are giving him a free pass then you've bit hook, line, and sinker into the conservative garbage being spewed from all corners.

Quoting Okie (Reply 31):
However, I have never and I mean never seen an administration with so much contempt towards business large or small.

Then you haven't been paying attention. You think they hold businesses in contempt? They hold criminals and manipulators in contempt, sure. We all should. But you really think the Obama administration hates businesses? Where's your proof?

Quoting Okie (Reply 31):
I have never seen an administration with so many special interest groups and lobbyist incorporated.

Then you must be blind. Special interest groups wrote the bills in the Bush Administration. They had closed door meetings with the Pres and VP. Special interests played a big role in the Clinton Administration. And you don't think they were present to a huge degree during Bush I or Ronnie's terms in office? Give me some of whatever you're smoking.

Special interest groups have a stranglehold on both parties of Congress. And when they pass bills, the interests are seen. There is definitely special interest influence in the White House, too, but I am willing to bet it is less than during the administrations of the last 2-4 presidents.

Texan
"I have always imagined that Paradise will be a kind of library."
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Sun Jan 31, 2010 1:56 am



Quoting Texan (Reply 30):
Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
Unemployment is still (officially) at 10%, and (unofficially) at 17.8% and climbing.

And is likely to stay that way through mid-2011 unless there is massive government intervention. Texas's unemployment figures also just crept up.

The TX unemployment rate is 8.0%, with a high around 8.3% in the Houston area. In contrast MI has an unemployment rate nearly double that of TX, at 15.5%.

http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=..._rate&idim=state:ST480000:ST260000

Quoting Texan (Reply 30):
Yes, the stimulus package helped lessen job losses,

Really? How many jobs have been saved by the 28% of the $787B stimulus bill that has been spent already?
 
Okie
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Sun Jan 31, 2010 2:03 am



Quoting Texan (Reply 32):
I would bet everything I have that when Bush's economic growth numbers came out amidst rising unemployment you didn't call him on b.s. Take off your blinders

Blinders were never on sorry.

Quoting Texan (Reply 32):
Then you haven't been paying attention. You think they hold businesses in contempt?

The track record is speaking for itself.

Quoting Texan (Reply 32):
Give me some of whatever you're smoking.

You just get half.  

Okie
 
texan
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Sun Jan 31, 2010 2:13 am

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 33):

The TX unemployment rate is 8.0%, with a high around 8.3% in the Houston area.

8.3% statewide is the latest report. 2.7% jump since December 2008 (the 8.3% is the Dec 2009 figure available at http://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.nr0.htm). McAllen-Mission led the way with over 11% unemployment, while Beaumont-Port Arthur and Brownsville-Harlingen each had about 10.5%. El Paso is over 9%.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 33):
Really? How many jobs have been saved by the 28% of the $787B stimulus bill that has been spent already?

The White House reports that 2 million jobs have been created with stimulus money and 640,000 have been saved, as reported by the states. This number is most likely inflated by some decent amount. I'd still venture to say a good half million jobs have been saved and over a million created. But this doesn't offset the loss of public sector jobs, which continues to grow.

What you don't figure in is infrastructure improvements, materials purchasing, and other such trivialities. The government needs to spend more, but it needs to be targeted to creating jobs, preferably in the private sector.

edited to add: According to some reports, the true unemployment rate is quite a bit higher than even you estimate, upwards of 22%. I've been hearing above 20% for a year. The "unemployment rate" is another great lie by the political parties, and used by both parties to show what they want.

Texan

[Edited 2010-01-30 18:16:39 by texan]
"I have always imagined that Paradise will be a kind of library."
 
texan
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Sun Jan 31, 2010 2:29 am



Quoting Okie (Reply 34):
Quoting Texan (Reply 32):
Then you haven't been paying attention. You think they hold businesses in contempt?

The track record is speaking for itself.

You might have missed the tax cuts and billions of dollars in incentives given to businesses in the A.R.R.A of 2009, then. The Administration is trying to help most businesses while simultaneously trying to reign in the excesses of a lot of businesses that contributed more heavily than almost anything else to this recession.

And you still haven't given any proof.

Quoting Okie (Reply 34):
Quoting Texan (Reply 32):
Give me some of whatever you're smoking.

You just get half.

Awesome! I'll bring the beer  

Texan
"I have always imagined that Paradise will be a kind of library."
 
comorin
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Sun Jan 31, 2010 3:37 am



Quoting Baroque (Reply 25):
Re the jewels, could I suggest you start a thread on that very topic to balance the government is bad FULL STOP theory of how the world should be run?

Will do! Let me don my flame suit first  

Apologies to KC135 and Dreadnought if I came across with an 'attitude'...
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Sun Jan 31, 2010 1:03 pm



Quoting Texan (Reply 35):
Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 33):
Really? How many jobs have been saved by the 28% of the $787B stimulus bill that has been spent already?

The White House reports that 2 million jobs have been created with stimulus money and 640,000 have been saved, as reported by the states.

Even the WH is now saying those numbers are not true and they have no idea how many, if any jobs have been created or saved. They also do not know how much any of these jobs costs, in dollars and do not dispute GOP numbers from last summer that each job created or saved would have costs over $200,000 each.

Quoting Texan (Reply 35):
What you don't figure in is infrastructure improvements, materials purchasing, and other such trivialities. The government needs to spend more, but it needs to be targeted to creating jobs, preferably in the private sector.

What infaststructure improvements? The only ones I have heard anything about is the 'turtle tunnel' in FL to keep turtles from being squashed while crossing a road, and some bike paths in MA that lead to a Taco Bell.

Quoting Texan (Reply 36):
Quoting Okie (Reply 34):
Quoting Texan (Reply 32):
Then you haven't been paying attention. You think they hold businesses in contempt?

The track record is speaking for itself.

You might have missed the tax cuts and billions of dollars in incentives given to businesses

Texan, there were no tax cuts inacted in 2009. The only thing that changed was the government withholding a lower amount from your paycheck. That ended on 01/01/10, and you may have noticed your check actually went down by a few dollars since then.

Quoting Comorin (Reply 37):
Apologies to KC135 and Dreadnought if I came across with an 'attitude'...

For me, it is not a problem, my friend. I really enjoy these debates.
 
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Dreadnought
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Sun Jan 31, 2010 3:04 pm



Quoting Comorin (Reply 37):

Apologies to KC135 and Dreadnought if I came across with an 'attitude'...

No reason to apologize - you pointed out an error we had made. It didn't change our conclusions, but you were right to point it out.
Forget dogs and cats - Spay and neuter your liberals.
 
texan
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Sun Jan 31, 2010 4:40 pm



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 38):
Texan, there were no tax cuts inacted in 2009. The only thing that changed was the government withholding a lower amount from your paycheck. That ended on 01/01/10, and you may have noticed your check actually went down by a few dollars since then.

For most individuals the cuts and breaks ended this month, but many of the business tax cuts and breaks in the bill are extended through 2011, especially under Title XVI, Subtitle C. There are two sections of the ARRA addressing business tax cuts and breaks. The first deals almost exclusively with the Small Business Administration and allows for over $600 billion in low-interest loans as well as retiring or reducing debt payments through 2014 for qualifying businesses. See Pub.L. 111-5, Title V.

The second section discusses many kinds of tax breaks and credits being offered to complying businesses. See Title XVI, Subtitle C. A lot of increased depreciation allowed as well.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 38):
What infaststructure improvements? The only ones I have heard anything about is the 'turtle tunnel' in FL to keep turtles from being squashed while crossing a road, and some bike paths in MA that lead to a Taco Bell.

We have a fair amount of infrastructure projects going on here in Texas funded by the ARRA. Road projects, fiber optics projects, etc. Same all across the country. The states, cities, etc called for bids on the projects, including materials and other expenses in the bids.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 38):

Even the WH is now saying those numbers are not true and they have no idea how many, if any jobs have been created or saved. They also do not know how much any of these jobs costs, in dollars and do not dispute GOP numbers from last summer that each job created or saved would have costs over $200,000 each.

I subtracted an amount of at least 10% from the W.H. numbers. For saved jobs, the W.H. asked the states whether a position would have been eliminated if stimulus money had not been received. There is going to be a fudge factor for sure, we just don't know how much. I guessed around 10%. Hopefully there will be an accurate count soon (new numbers will be released this month or early next month I think).

Texan
"I have always imagined that Paradise will be a kind of library."
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Sun Jan 31, 2010 6:31 pm



Quoting Texan (Reply 40):
Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 38):
What infaststructure improvements? The only ones I have heard anything about is the 'turtle tunnel' in FL to keep turtles from being squashed while crossing a road, and some bike paths in MA that lead to a Taco Bell.

We have a fair amount of infrastructure projects going on here in Texas funded by the ARRA. Road projects, fiber optics projects, etc. Same all across the country. The states, cities, etc called for bids on the projects, including materials and other expenses in the bids.

But almost every one of those that began construction in 2009, and even most of those that will begin in 2010 (including the major rebuild of Rwy 17C/35C for DFW) were funded before the stimulus package was signed nearly a year ago. There have been no TX projects that were 'shovel ready' that are using any of the stimulus funds. That is suppose to change in FY 2011 and FY2012 when the remainder of the stimulus funds are spent..
 
MoltenRock
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RE: US 5.7% Economic Growth....where?

Sun Jan 31, 2010 7:59 pm



Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 39):
No reason to apologize - you pointed out an error we had made. It didn't change our conclusions, but you were right to point it out.

Yeah, that's called denial. Or the No true Scotsman logical fallacy. Or cognitive dissonance.

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