bmacleod
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Anyone Betting On GOP Taking Over Congress?

Tue Oct 26, 2010 1:09 pm

Polls are pointing to a GOP takeover of the house, though as they say the only number that really matters is the one next Tuesday, Nov 2. I'm guessing some are actually going to Vegas to make big bets on the outcome.

Some probably bet big on Kerry over Bush in 2004 when the Iraq war was going from bad to worse and numerous scandals in the GOP. Bush managed to just squeeze in. Luck was on his side.

In 2006 nearly everyone thought Hillary was going to be next president and some likely went to Vegas to make bets on it. Obama came out of nowhere and managed to leap past her.

I think betting on elections is stupid but some think they can hit big and win on it. Some polls are showing Democrats are closing the gap. Anything can happen as they say....
"What good are wings without the courage to fly?" - Atticus
 
sw733
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RE: Anyone Betting On GOP Taking Over Congress?

Tue Oct 26, 2010 1:21 pm

The House, yes, I see it happening. Not so sure about the Senate, I have not been following that one as closely, but my initial reaction would be "close, but not quite" for the GOP. I would expect a split Senate after next week...

Quoting bmacleod (Thread starter):
In 2006 nearly everyone thought Hillary was going to be next president and some likely went to Vegas to make bets on it. Obama came out of nowhere and managed to leap past her.

Really goes to show that nobody knows what will happen, and campaigning starts WAY too far out. For example, a lot of people are saying that Obama may not be great, but the GOP has nobody who can beat him in 2012. Well, 2012 is a long ways off, and I have this sneaky suspicion that the GOP candidate will be somebody that most normal, non-political folks have not even heard of yet, kind of like Obama in 2006 (for the 2008 election)...
 
NIKV69
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RE: Anyone Betting On GOP Taking Over Congress?

Tue Oct 26, 2010 3:04 pm

It's pretty obvious that the GOP will take the house quite easily. In fact I think I read Grayson is trailing in his race as well. I would love to see him lose. Senate stays Dem as the GOP lost a good chance with O'Donnell as that seat was winnable. I think they can get 6 seats. If Murray loses and Carly and Angle can win. That is about the size of it.
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sw733
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RE: Anyone Betting On GOP Taking Over Congress?

Tue Oct 26, 2010 3:22 pm

Quoting SW733 (Reply 1):
I would expect a split Senate after next week...

D'oh! Just realized I meant a split CONGRESS after next week, obviously not a split Senate...looks like I picked the wrong day to stop sniffing glue
 
seb146
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RE: Anyone Betting On GOP Taking Over Congress?

Tue Oct 26, 2010 3:46 pm

I think we are going to see two factions of the right-wing who refuse to work together so the bloc of Democrats will still be the majority party. It will be hell, but I think there will be three factions in both houses of Congress.
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Aaron747
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RE: Anyone Betting On GOP Taking Over Congress?

Tue Oct 26, 2010 4:37 pm

Quoting NIKV69 (Reply 2):
If Murray loses and Carly and Angle can win

Angle's not going to win a 27% Latino state after the blatantly discriminatory tirade she went on yesterday.
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NIKV69
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RE: Anyone Betting On GOP Taking Over Congress?

Tue Oct 26, 2010 5:27 pm

Quoting Aaron747 (Reply 5):
Angle's not going to win a 27% Latino state after the blatantly discriminatory tirade she went on yesterday

She is still polling ahead but man has she blew it with her words. After the debate I would have locked her in a room! I still think she barely gets it done though.
Hey that guy with the private jet can bail us out! Why? HE CAN AFFORD IT!
 
EA772LR
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RE: Anyone Betting On GOP Taking Over Congress?

Tue Oct 26, 2010 5:42 pm

I say that the GOP easily wins the House, likely 60-70 seats they pick up. In the Senate, I see the GOP picking up at least 7, perhaps they can get the 9 needed to evenly split the Senate and shut Obama down til 2012, and throw his a$$ packing back to Chicago. I think the Democrats are running so scared right now. I think the turnout next Tuesday is going to be huge and the enthusiasm gap between the two parties has never been so wide at mid terms...in favor of the GOP. I thought Pelosi said in her SOH speech in 2007 that congress would 'pay as they go', and 'no new deficit spending'-meanwhile the Democrats had control the last 4 years and added $5,000,000,000,000.00 to the deficit. All Bush's fault of course...insanity!!!
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Superfly
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RE: Anyone Betting On GOP Taking Over Congress?

Tue Oct 26, 2010 6:45 pm

It's a forgone conclusion that the House will go Republican and the Senate stays Democrat.

Quoting Aaron747 (Reply 5):
Angle's not going to win a 27% Latino state after the blatantly discriminatory tirade she went on yesterday.

I hope you're right.

Quoting NIKV69 (Reply 2):
If Murray loses and Carly and Angle can win.

Not going to happen.
Patty Murray is up and she is going to win.
Carly has never led Boxer and just today, Carly was admitted to the hospital. She hasn't been upfront about her ongoing health issues. Regardless, she isn't a good candidate anyway.
I'm keeping my fingers crossed that Harry Reid can pull off a victory.

Quoting NIKV69 (Reply 2):
I read Grayson is trailing in his race as well.

Sadly the few Democrats I don't like are in very safe districts.
(Henry Waxman, Jackie Spier, Keith Ellison, Andre Carson)
I am glad that Aurthur Davis is stepping down.
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NIKV69
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RE: Anyone Betting On GOP Taking Over Congress?

Tue Oct 26, 2010 6:47 pm

Quoting Superfly (Reply 8):
Not going to happen.
Patty Murray is up and she is going to win

You sure Rasmussen had that very close.

Quoting Superfly (Reply 8):
Carly has never led Boxer and just today, Carly was admitted to the hospital. She hasn't been upfront about her ongoing health issues

It's a complication from the surgery not the cancer. I think that race is closer than the LA times wants you to believe.
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Superfly
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RE: Anyone Betting On GOP Taking Over Congress?

Tue Oct 26, 2010 6:51 pm

Quoting NIKV69 (Reply 9):
Rasmussen
Quoting NIKV69 (Reply 9):
LA times

I go by Real Clear Politics.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ate/2010_elections_senate_map.html
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NIKV69
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RE: Anyone Betting On GOP Taking Over Congress?

Tue Oct 26, 2010 6:54 pm

Quoting Superfly (Reply 10):
I go by Real Clear Politics.

Yes but Rasmussen is more accurate.   
Hey that guy with the private jet can bail us out! Why? HE CAN AFFORD IT!
 
Ken777
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RE: Anyone Betting On GOP Taking Over Congress?

Tue Oct 26, 2010 6:55 pm

This will be the third election in a row where there has been a 20+ seat shift in the house - first time in 60 years - or so said David Gerkin (sp?) on CNN.

Expectations are for a huge shift and a 60 to 70 seat shift is expected by a lot of people. Less than a 60 seat shift could mean changes in the House GOP Leadership.

The Senate should also have a sufficient shift as long as voters go for the flakes that have been "blessed" by the Tea Party - like Angle or O'Donnell.

Actually I would say that the Republicans would have failed if they don't take over the Senate. All the cards are in their favor.

When the Republicans take over both houses the next change may be in their leadership. Jim DeMint has given millions to some candidates and he's going to expect their support for the top spot. Mitch is so old hat with his Botox look.
 
Superfly
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RE: Anyone Betting On GOP Taking Over Congress?

Tue Oct 26, 2010 7:14 pm

Quoting NIKV69 (Reply 11):
Yes but Rasmussen is more accurate.

Which still has Boxer in the lead.
Boxer has always been controversial so she never wins in landslides but she has always been a fighter for California.
She'll be going back for a 4th. term.  
Bring back the Concorde
 
flanker
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RE: Anyone Betting On GOP Taking Over Congress?

Tue Oct 26, 2010 7:26 pm

I voted today and I have tipped the battle. woohooo
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UH60FtRucker
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RE: Anyone Betting On GOP Taking Over Congress?

Tue Oct 26, 2010 7:26 pm

Quoting Superfly (Reply 8):
Patty Murray is up and she is going to win.

You may be right... but I'm just amazed at how many people are driving around with Dino stickers, and how many homes have Dino signs out front. And I'm not talking about people out in Yakima/Spokane/eastern WA where conservatives have a solid grip. I'm talking about Olympia, Lacey, Bellevue.... and even Renton!

I honestly think this is a true toss-up, and which ever side has the greater enthusiasm on Tuesday, will win. Murray doesn't have this locked up yet.
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fr8mech
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RE: Anyone Betting On GOP Taking Over Congress?

Tue Oct 26, 2010 8:06 pm

Quoting EA772LR (Reply 7):
I say that the GOP easily wins the House, likely 60-70 seats they pick up.

I think that's too ambitious...it would be nice, but I suspect 35-50 seats or so.

The Senate stays with the Dems because of Delaware and California (I just can't see the people of the People's Republic having drunk the Kool-aid that deeply). So we are much closer to parity.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 12):
flakes

  

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 12):
Actually I would say that the Republicans would have failed if they don't take over the Senate.

And so the spin begins. The Left will say that since the GOP did not take the Senate and didn't take 60, 70,80 or even 90 seats in the House, the GOP actually failed in this election.  
Quoting Superfly (Reply 13):
She'll be going back for a 4th. term.

More the pity, because she is a rather arrogant, pompous person who is ineffective.

One thing will be clear, President Obama will be facing a hostile Congress. He will need to move much closer to the middle than Clinton ever did if he plans to pass anymore legislation.

I forgot to add:

Let's not forget the state races going on. I think the GOP makes major gains in the nation's Governor's mansions.

[Edited 2010-10-26 13:34:13]
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mt99
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RE: Anyone Betting On GOP Taking Over Congress?

Tue Oct 26, 2010 8:33 pm

Quoting fr8mech (Reply 16):
I think that's too ambitious..

Why ambitious? I mean if this huge "uprising" really exist.. then it should be evident 2 weeks from now..

Quoting fr8mech (Reply 16):
The Left will say that since the GOP did not take the Senate and didn't take 60, 70,80 or even 90 seats in the House, the GOP actually failed in this election.

But its true isn't? Let me ask you something.. what would you consider a GOP victory and what would you consider a GOP failure in the upcoming election? Show us how not to spin things. State your victory/failure upfront.

Quoting fr8mech (Reply 16):
More the pity, because she is a rather arrogant, pompous person who is ineffective.

But its what the people want..
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fr8mech
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RE: Anyone Betting On GOP Taking Over Congress?

Tue Oct 26, 2010 8:38 pm

Quoting mt99 (Reply 17):
Why ambitious? I mean if this huge "uprising" really exist.. then it should be evident 2 weeks from now..


And the spin continues...

Quoting mt99 (Reply 17):
But its true isn't? Let me ask you something.. what would you consider a GOP victory and what would you consider a GOP failure in the upcoming election? Show us how not to spin things. State your victory/failure upfront.


I'm a simple person...victory to me is a majority in the House, the bigger, the better, but a simple majority and a move closer to parity in the Senate. Anything else is gravy.

Granted, the bigger the majority, the bigger the mandate, but a simple, united majority in the House will put a stop to the destructive path we have been set upon by Obama, Pelosi & Reid.
When seconds count...the police are minutes away.
 
mt99
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RE: Anyone Betting On GOP Taking Over Congress?

Wed Oct 27, 2010 2:57 am

Quoting fr8mech (Reply 18):
Quoting mt99 (Reply 17):
Why ambitious? I mean if this huge "uprising" really exist.. then it should be evident 2 weeks from now..


And the spin continues..

Why you call it spin? Why wouldn't the "revolution" be overwhelming in 2 week?

You realize that calling it "spin" is "spin" in it self...
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Superfly
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RE: Anyone Betting On GOP Taking Over Congress?

Wed Oct 27, 2010 2:58 am

Quoting UH60FtRucker (Reply 15):
I'm just amazed at how many people are driving around with Dino stickers, and how many homes have Dino signs out front



They're supporting this Dino.



Quoting UH60FtRucker (Reply 15):
I'm not talking about people out in Yakima/Spokane/eastern WA where conservatives have a solid grip.




That's Bedrock conservative territory.

Quoting fr8mech (Reply 16):
More the pity, because she is a rather arrogant, pompous person who is ineffective.

Well she is a politician.
She does bring home the bacon.

Quoting fr8mech (Reply 16):
I think the GOP makes major gains in the nation's Governor's mansions.

True but California and Hawaii will be pick ups for the Democrats.

Quoting fr8mech (Reply 16):
One thing will be clear, President Obama will be facing a hostile Congress. He will need to move much closer to the middle than Clinton ever did if he plans to pass anymore legislation.

Anything to stop Cap & Trade and if a Republican house is necessary then I guess that is what it will have to come to.
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Mudboy
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RE: Anyone Betting On GOP Taking Over Congress?

Wed Oct 27, 2010 3:14 am

Ok I will bet anyone here $100. that Christine O'Donnell loses, and then gets an offer from Playboy, and if she accepts Superfly will be the happiest person on A-net, in fact we will hear him shouting for joy, all the way from Bangkok!! 
Any takers??
Stay Safe!
 
Superfly
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RE: Anyone Betting On GOP Taking Over Congress?

Wed Oct 27, 2010 3:47 am

Quoting Mudboy (Reply 21):
Ok I will bet anyone here $100. that Christine O'Donnell loses, and then gets an offer from Playboy, and if she accepts Superfly will be the happiest person on A-net, in fact we will hear him shouting for joy, all the way from Bangkok!!
Any takers??

LOL!  


Playboy is a bit passe.
Perhaps and more risqué publication or website. Perhaps she can go on her own as a nude model.
The whole political thing is not her calling, nor is the fundie Christian thing.
Bring back the Concorde
 
fr8mech
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RE: Anyone Betting On GOP Taking Over Congress?

Wed Oct 27, 2010 4:09 am

Quoting Superfly (Reply 20):
True but California and Hawaii will be pick ups for the Democrats.


Please...California has been in the hands of the Democrats in all but name for years.

Quoting Superfly (Reply 20):
Anything to stop Cap & Trade and if a Republican house is necessary then I guess that is what it will have to come to.


Cap & Trade is dead. It couldn't get out of a 59-41 senate, what makes you think it will get out of an even tighter Senate?

Quoting mt99 (Reply 19):
Why you call it spin?


I call it spin because that has to be the narrative from the Left. If the GOP doesn't win big, across the board, then the GOP really lost and there is no mandate. The election was a fluke and Obama doesn't have to move to the middle. That's the narrative.
When seconds count...the police are minutes away.
 
11Bravo
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RE: Anyone Betting On GOP Taking Over Congress?

Wed Oct 27, 2010 4:16 am

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 12):
This will be the third election in a row where there has been a 20+ seat shift in the house - first time in 60 years

That's what you get when you have ten years of failed leadership,... on both sides. People get nervous and they lash out against one side and then the other. I think this country is in deep trouble. America is a very different place than it was when I was a kid. We can't do what we've been doing for the last decade and expect to turn that around; a second-rate education system, disfunctional healthcare, unfettered energy consumption, massive public and private debt.
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Superfly
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RE: Anyone Betting On GOP Taking Over Congress?

Wed Oct 27, 2010 4:17 am

Quoting fr8mech (Reply 23):
Please...California has been in the hands of the Democrats in all but name for years.



Pete Wilson was center-right and George Deukmejian was far-right.
Hopefully with Jerry Brown, California can finally get it's own satellite.  
Quoting fr8mech (Reply 23):
Cap & Trade is dead. It couldn't get out of a 59-41 senate, what makes you think it will get out of an even tighter Senate?



Good!
President Obama needs to learn to stay far away from the environmentalist as possible.
He is too cozy with them he needs to understand that they would be the kiss of death for his future political ambitions.
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fr8mech
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RE: Anyone Betting On GOP Taking Over Congress?

Wed Oct 27, 2010 4:48 am

Quoting Superfly (Reply 25):
Hopefully with Jerry Brown

Jerry Brown, along with Prop 25 may well turn California into a wasteland of failed policies.

Quoting Superfly (Reply 25):
Pete Wilson was center-right and George Deukmejian was far-right.

I was referring to the Governator.
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Superfly
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RE: Anyone Betting On GOP Taking Over Congress?

Wed Oct 27, 2010 6:46 am

Quoting fr8mech (Reply 26):
I was referring to the Governator.



He is Grey Davis will more muscle.
Davis was no darling of the left either. He was very much a centrist.

Quoting fr8mech (Reply 26):
Prop 25



I have no problem with a simple majority.
It's one of the basic principles of a democracy.
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fr8mech
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RE: Anyone Betting On GOP Taking Over Congress?

Wed Oct 27, 2010 7:33 am

Quoting Superfly (Reply 27):
I have no problem with a simple majority.
It's one of the basic principles of a democracy.

I have no problem with a simple majority for elections and such, but when it comes to spending other people's money...I'm a fan of a super-majority. But, it seems like I'm in the minority.
When seconds count...the police are minutes away.
 
Superfly
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RE: Anyone Betting On GOP Taking Over Congress?

Wed Oct 27, 2010 7:42 am

Quoting fr8mech (Reply 28):
when it comes to spending other people's money...I'm a fan of a super-majority.




Considering raising taxes is a political volatile issue, they would be less likely to raise taxes if it's only a simple majority required to pass.
I believe that most tax hike votes that failed to get a 2/3rds majority was political posturing by politicians that knew it wouldn't pass. That way they can pretend that they're doing something to satisfy their constituents.
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sw733
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RE: Anyone Betting On GOP Taking Over Congress?

Wed Oct 27, 2010 1:27 pm

Quoting fr8mech (Reply 16):
More the pity, because she is a rather arrogant, pompous person who is ineffective.

That could very well be said for 535 specific people in Washington DC...

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