TheCommodore
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Bernanke Warns Of Long-term Unemployment

Tue Nov 30, 2010 9:35 pm

So, Bernanke has come out and said "current high levels of unemployment could become entrenched and have a "very long-term effect" on the US economy.

Of course this will not bode well for the long term recovery of the US economy any time soon, he even added this statement...

" the world's largest economy was not growing fast enough to handle even the number of people entering the workforce, with 2.0 per cent to 2.5 per cent growth needed to just to keep up. "

That is especially disturbing, if the current job rate is not even keeping up with workers entering the work force. I would not want to be a young graduate trying to find some future employment at this stage of the game.

I wonder if the US economy will continue to lag behind the rest of the world as the recovery grows, perhaps curbing future growth in other countries dependent on the US ?

This could be a real double edge sword. Not good news at all  http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news...m-unemployment-20101201-18fpw.html
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Aaron747
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RE: Bernanke Warns Of Long-term Unemployment

Tue Nov 30, 2010 9:46 pm

Quoting TheCommodore (Thread starter):

That is especially disturbing, if the current job rate is not even keeping up with workers entering the work force. I would not want to be a young graduate trying to find some future employment at this stage of the game.

I wonder if the US economy will continue to lag behind the rest of the world as the recovery grows, perhaps curbing future growth in other countries dependent on the US ?

This is precisely why a lot of naysayers have been pointing out emerging similarities to the Japanese malaise of the last 15-20 years that is now coming to a head. They have lost manufacturing jobs that are never coming back, the "lifetime employment" system common for the last three decades is now no more, companies are keeping cash close to the chest instead of investing, wages have stagnated with the traditional summer+winter bonus being cancelled in many cases, and up to 45% of college graduates have no hope of finding any kind of meaningful work.
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LAXintl
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RE: Bernanke Warns Of Long-term Unemployment

Tue Nov 30, 2010 10:27 pm

Quoting TheCommodore (Thread starter):
I would not want to be a young graduate trying to find some future employment at this stage of the game.

That young graduate should do OK if he has the right education. The unemployment figures vary immensly between job fields.

If you are more blue-collar labor yes things are tough, and you will likely encounter low paying jobs if any, however many many white-collar fields including finance(yes its coming back), IT, engineering, law, tech and medical cannot keep up. I just had a Georgia employer over here in upscale yuppy Orange County looking for staff as they could not find enough in their neck of the woods and were offering all types of signining packages for people willing to relocate.
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Aaron747
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RE: Bernanke Warns Of Long-term Unemployment

Tue Nov 30, 2010 10:37 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 2):
IT

Increasingly outsourced...

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 2):
law

Large potential increase in outsourcing coming...

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 2):
finance

Further regulatory changes could inhibit growth and/or hiring for the forseeable future.

Basically the government and the Fed need to stop playing games or the picture will most certainly become more bleak.
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Superfly
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RE: Bernanke Warns Of Long-term Unemployment

Wed Dec 01, 2010 4:26 am

Quoting Aaron747 (Reply 3):
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 2):
law

Large potential increase in outsourcing coming...

Suing McDonald's may be the only source of income......
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Ken777
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RE: Bernanke Warns Of Long-term Unemployment

Wed Dec 01, 2010 5:13 am

Quoting Aaron747 (Reply 3):
Basically the government and the Fed need to stop playing games or the picture will most certainly become more bleak.

I really don't have any sympathy for those in the financial industry who are regulated a bit more than before. They had a pretty wild ride and a bit of cleaning up was needed.

As far as employment over the next generation goes, look at the middle class - is it growing or taking a beating. Look at the multiple between the lowest average wage/salary in most companies and the average highest. Around the 70s or 80s it used to be a multiple of 35. Now my bet is that the ratio is over 200. What does that do to the middle class that has been a major force in building this country and our economy.

If we don't start focusing on the bottom 90%, building that middle class up, then we face some long term problems.
 
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Aaron747
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RE: Bernanke Warns Of Long-term Unemployment

Wed Dec 01, 2010 5:47 am

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 5):

I really don't have any sympathy for those in the financial industry who are regulated a bit more than before.

Regulation is not the solution. We had an opportunity to let some scofflaws reap the rewards of their deceit and go out of business altogether - imagine the likes of Goldman seeing their fortunes go up in smoke! But alas, that is not what happened, and thanks to Obama and Bush, we're left with regulation - which will only hurt middle class workers more. The scofflaws won this time around - unless Wikileaks has something truly explosive on them.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 5):
Around the 70s or 80s it used to be a multiple of 35. Now my bet is that the ratio is over 200.

Once that process starts there is no way to reverse it - unless you are ready to start advocating some serious lawlessness, in which case the only job growth may be seen in firms making security equipment.
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Ken777
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RE: Bernanke Warns Of Long-term Unemployment

Wed Dec 01, 2010 4:18 pm

Quoting Aaron747 (Reply 6):
Once that process starts there is no way to reverse it

If that keeps growing at a fast rate then you know what happens to those not in the top 10%.

And, of course, crime goes up when the economy goes bad. That has been known for a long time.
 
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Aaron747
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RE: Bernanke Warns Of Long-term Unemployment

Wed Dec 01, 2010 5:50 pm

I was talking more about serious class warfare - destroying the homes of the megarich and what not. Thankfully such things have not transpired as that would be a perilous step toward anarchy.
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falstaff
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RE: Bernanke Warns Of Long-term Unemployment

Wed Dec 01, 2010 5:54 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 2):
If you are more blue-collar labor yes things are tough

Depends on what you mean by blue collar. An unskilled laborer yes, a precision expert welder no. There is a shortage of skilled trades people. Too many people are going to get degrees in stuff that is either useless or there is little demand which leaves of us a shortage of trades. the North terminal at DTW was delayed in opening becuase of a shortage of welders and electricians. I was talking to some people at the Michigan Department of Labor and they were saying that true skilled trades were in high demand. The guy who only could load a machine and make the same part over and over again day after day are a dime a dozen. The guy who could read a blue print and build whatever is the guy in demand.

I am a automotive technology teacher and I tell kids all the time that I don't know any unemployed auto mechanics. Guys who work on the line building cars, yes. Guys who work in a shop fixing them, no.
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