connies4ever
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Canadian Election Thread

Sun May 01, 2011 5:13 pm

Tomorrow (Mon Feb 2) we have a federal election in Canada (yes, I know: another one    ) .

Currently, the Conservatives have a minority government, with 143 of 308 seats in the House of Commons. The Liberals are the Official Opposition with, I believe, 77 seats, the Bloc-Quebecois 47 seats, and the New Democratic Party (NDP) has 365 seats. There are 2 independents and 3 vacancies. The Prime Minister is Stephen Harper, an economist by education.

For the general benefit of those not really familiar with the Canadian political landscape, the Conservatives (Tories) are a fairly strong right of centre party, the Liberals will support anything that gets and keeps them in power (historically they have campaigned from the left and governed from the right), the NDP are a (fairly) soft socialist party, and the BQ (or Bloc-heads, as they are sometimes called) are a Quebec -only party that originally was intended to advocate for Quebec at the federal level. But now they've been around for a generation. Some are separatists, some are not.

At the start of the campaign, Harper flat out demanded a majority to ensure what he described as stable government and economic growth. Attack ads against the Liberal leader, Michael Ignatieff, were deployed in the squadrons. And are still being used. The Liberals for the most part did not respond in kind - possibly because they don't have the money the Tories do. The NDP campaigned as they usually do, trying to advance the common man argument. Outside of Quebec, the BQ generally get ignored, inside Quebec it was a 'same old, same old' type campaign at the start. 'Vote for us and we'll stand up for Quebec in Ottawa' sort of thing.

Ignatieff has been suspected of being a weak leader, and he has not really come across well during the campaign. Harper, whatever one might think of him, is a leader, although a bloodless one. Jack Layton, leader of the NDP, came across as a guy with a lot of guts, campaigning while dealing with prostate cancer and recovering from a broken hip.

By harping (no pun intended) on the majority issue, Harper seems to have been trying to shake out some right of centre Liberals and get them into the Tory fold, and has also been micro-targeting selected ethnic groups in specific ridings, appealing to religious/social conservative trends here and there in order to weld together his coveted majority - because since this is his 4th election campaign, if he doesn't get a majority this time he'll likely get pushed out as PM.

However, a funny thing happened on the way to the election: most of those shook up Liberals seem to have gone to the NDP. As well, the NDP seems, from the polls, to have surpassed the BQ in the BQ's own territory. Layton has campaigned very well despite his condition, has assumed the happy underdog role which is playing well across the country, and now nationally the NDP is about 5 points behind the Tories, and light-years ahead of the Liberals, whose support seems to have collapsed. NDP support seems to be still rising, and Liberal support falling.

Most pollsters are now indicating that the long-sought majority is out of reach for the Tories, and this may be true. Since Canada uses a first past the post electoral system, vote-splitting between the Liberals and NDP might actually help a Tory majority happen, but that doesn't seem to be what the tall foreheads think. I believe the more-or-less consensus is that there will another Conservative minority, and likely for the first time ever, an NDP opposition, with the Liberals possibly reduced to a rump group. The BQ look also to be seriously reduced in Quebec, although their 'get out the vote' organisation is pretty strong.

Anyhoo, not being too shy to offer an opinion, I'll venture along the lines of:

Conservative: 135
NDP: 75
Liberal: 50
BQ: 46
Independent: 2

There is an Independent-BQ guy in Quebec who seems to have a good record for his riding, and I am predicting that Helena Guerges, whom Harper kicked out of cabinet and caucus for unspecified reasons (and was exonerated by the RCMP), will win her riding in Ontario over the candidate Harper promoted.

This of course could be wildly wrong. If the NDP can get their Quebec supporters out to actually vote, they could wind up with a lot more seats, and the BQ a lot less. As mentioned, vote-splitting could give the Tories a majority (they need 155). If the above is anywhere near accurate, Harper is PM again with a minority, Layton is leader of the opposition. The knock-on effect could be: Ignatieff out very quickly as Liberal leader, and the Liberals prepare to spend a lot of time in the wilderness trying to figure out what they're about; Duceppe (leader of the BQ) steps down, he's been around for a long time and perhaps they need a change, or perhaps Quebec is changing for them; Layton is ill, I think it likely he goes, or makes an announcement, before the end of the calendar year; and Harper quits. Anything short of a majority, after that's all he's campaigned on, would be seen as an "anyone but you, Steve" vote.

Who would follow any of these leaders is guesswork, I think.

But the floor is open ! Get your opinion in before voting tomorrow. Non-Canucks, raise your elbows and join the fray.
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DocLightning
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Sun May 01, 2011 6:46 pm

Quoting connies4ever (Thread starter):
Tomorrow (Mon Feb 2) we have a federal election in Canada (yes, I know: another one ) .

Canada has elections?   

  
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
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Boeing744
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Sun May 01, 2011 6:53 pm

There was already a thread going, but I think a new one is justified because of the immense changes in the campaign. Thanks for posting.

Quoting connies4ever (Thread starter):
Ignatieff has been suspected of being a weak leader, and he has not really come across well during the campaign. Harper, whatever one might think of him, is a leader, although a bloodless one. Jack Layton, leader of the NDP, came across as a guy with a lot of guts, campaigning while dealing with prostate cancer and recovering from a broken hip.


I would respectfully disagree about Ignatieff. I think he has run an alright campaign. The reason it is going so poorly is the very very successful character assassination of Ignatieff by the Conservatives.

How they turned being a professor at Harvard into a political liability is impressive, if not upsetting.

Quoting connies4ever (Thread starter):
There is an Independent-BQ guy in Quebec who seems to have a good record for his riding


He is an independent, but normally votes with the Conservatives.

Quoting connies4ever (Thread starter):
Helena Guerges, whom Harper kicked out of cabinet and caucus for unspecified reasons (and was exonerated by the RCMP), will win her riding in Ontario over the candidate Harper promoted.


We'll see tomorrow but I doubt it. I think her and the Conservative candidate will split the rightist vote and the NDP or Liberals will take that seat.

Quoting connies4ever (Thread starter):

Conservative: 135
NDP: 75
Liberal: 50
BQ: 46
Independent: 2

Interesting... I think you're right with the general proportions, but I think the Bloc will do much poorer, and most of their seats will go between the NDP and Liberals. One seat projection poll had the Bloc dropping to only 3 (!) seats.

Just to disclose my own stripes, I voted Liberal at the advance polls. To be sure though, the Conservatives would be my second choice over the NDP or anyone else.

[Edited 2011-05-01 11:54:42]
 
TheCol
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Sun May 01, 2011 7:04 pm

IMHO, which is getting more common by the day, I doubt another Conservative minority would last 3 months before loosing confidence in the House. The NDP and Liberals have made it public, and played right into Harper's campaign strategy, that they will strongly entertain the idea of forming a coalition government. Since the Liberals are totally disorganized and still infighting over their platform, the classic Trudeau and Chretien Liberals will probably use a NDP coalition to keep their party steering well to the left, instead of center-right.
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Boeing744
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Sun May 01, 2011 7:07 pm

Quoting connies4ever (Thread starter):
The knock-on effect could be: Ignatieff out very quickly as Liberal leader, and the Liberals prepare to spend a lot of time in the wilderness trying to figure out what they're about; Duceppe (leader of the BQ) steps down, he's been around for a long time and perhaps they need a change, or perhaps Quebec is changing for them; Layton is ill, I think it likely he goes, or makes an announcement, before the end of the calendar year; and Harper quits. Anything short of a majority, after that's all he's campaigned on, would be seen as an "anyone but you, Steve" vote.

I think you're very right about this. If the NDP makes the enormous gains expected, though, I could see Layton staying on if his health permits. Otherwise, here are some humble preliminary predictions for future leaders, in no order:

Conservatives:
- Jim Prentice. He left, but I could see him returning in a year or so. He would win my vote for the Conservatives.
- John Baird. Very effective and popular. Perhaps too abrasive though?
- Peter McKay.
- Jason Kenney. I certainly hope not.

Liberals:
- Mark Holland.
- Martha Hall-Findlay. Everyone seems to like her, even Conservatives.
- Dominic LeBlanc. Very bilingual and an effective speaker I think.
- Bob Rae. I am sure a very nice guy, but his political past would be absolute suicide for the Liberals.

NDP:
- Gary Doer. Former MB Premier, current Ambassador to the USA. Wildly popular and successful.
- Thomas Mulcair.
- Pat Martin. Prolific, but strange...

Bloc and Greens:
???
 
connies4ever
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Sun May 01, 2011 8:19 pm

Quoting Boeing744 (Reply 2):
The reason it is going so poorly is the very very successful character assassination of Ignatieff by the Conservatives.

   No doubt that was effective. Also shows that iggy has a little more class (a lot more class) than Harper since the amount of character assassination by the Libs was at a minimum.

Quoting Boeing744 (Reply 2):
Just to disclose my own stripes, I voted Liberal at the advance polls.

I will vote Liberal tomorrow and I have a sign on my lawn.

Quoting Boeing744 (Reply 4):
- Jim Prentice. He left, but I could see him returning in a year or so. He would win my vote for the Conservatives.
- John Baird. Very effective and popular. Perhaps too abrasive though?
- Peter McKay.
- Jason Kenney. I certainly hope not.

Prentice - liked him overall, probably too 'red' for the Christian/uber-right.
Baird - Popular where ? With other pitbulls, perhaps. A very nasty person, IMHO (who likely would run for leader)
McKay - same grouping as Prentice, but he'd likely try anyway.
Kenney - likeliest successor, he's been pulling in IOU's all over the place.

Quoting Boeing744 (Reply 4):
- Mark Holland.
- Martha Hall-Findlay. Everyone seems to like her, even Conservatives.
- Dominic LeBlanc. Very bilingual and an effective speaker I think.
- Bob Rae. I am sure a very nice guy, but his political past would be absolute suicide for the Liberals.

Holland - don't know much there
Hall-Findlay - everyone likes her, yes; but does she have the cojones ?
Leblance - capable guy, I'd say a short-term leader anyway, until Justin Trudeau grows up
Rae - not a chance in hell, also probably too old

Quoting Boeing744 (Reply 4):
- Gary Doer. Former MB Premier, current Ambassador to the USA. Wildly popular and successful.
- Thomas Mulcair.
- Pat Martin. Prolific, but strange...

As a Manitoban, very proud of Gary. Have met several times, he's a really decent and smart person. He's also 62 and doesn't want to get into the rough and tumble again (unless he's PM from the start, I suppose).
Mulcair - I think he's too much a non-leader to be a leader; but a very bright guy
Martin - yup, he's a little wacky

Quoting Boeing744 (Reply 4):
???

BQ & Greens - really, who cares ? E May has screwed up the Green Party for so long she should just leave, although she might just beat little Gary Lunn tomorrow. She would have run in that riding in the 1st place if she had any real political smarts.

Should make for some interesting TV tomorrow night. Better than the playoffs.
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Boeing744
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Sun May 01, 2011 9:51 pm

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 5):
Baird - Popular where ? With other pitbulls, perhaps. A very nasty person, IMHO (who likely would run for leader)

Well, he really has become "Minister of Everything." At his age that says a lot. Also, I have heard from a couple insiders that outside the House he's generally a nice guy, and easy to get along with. He seemed like that when I met him briefly at the Rideau St. McDonalds haha...
 
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Sun May 01, 2011 9:57 pm

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 5):
E May has screwed up the Green Party for so long she should just leave, although she might just beat little Gary Lunn tomorrow. She would have run in that riding in the 1st place if she had any real political smarts.

Unfortunately, I am fairly confident she will lose in Saanich-Gulf Islands. That is my former riding, and my parents and siblings still live there. Yes, there is a strong Green base, but she would have to woo a lot of NDP and Liberal voters to have any chance. Lunn isn't exactly popular, but the Conservatives also have a committed, mostly elderly voting base. Complicating the situation is that Victoria in general is a very insular community - everything I've heard from possible May voters is that they're uncomfortable with her not being from the region. She is seen as a carpetbagger in the truest sense of the term.

Personally, I would vote for May if I lived there, but mostly because I really like her personally (and not everyone does). I have also heard that the Conservative internal polling is not even worried about that race. Their national phone banks aren't calling it. Rather, they are more worried about the two-way Conservative-NDP race in the neighbouring Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca riding.
 
TheCol
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Sun May 01, 2011 11:03 pm

Quoting Boeing744 (Reply 2):
The reason it is going so poorly is the very very successful character assassination of Ignatieff by the Conservatives.

That's because he played right into it. Harper's attack ads would have looked totally ridiculous at this point if Ignatieff has his act together pre-election and kept his big mouth shut about a coalition government. The fact of the matter is that he has no charisma, is a weak leader, and has barely gained the confidence of his own party. The NDP didn't make it this far because of a bunch of lousy Conservative attack ads.
No matter how random things may appear, there's always a plan.
 
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Mon May 02, 2011 12:44 am

Ok, here's a scenario just to keep the NeoCons sleepless at night.

1) Harper wins another minority gov't. That's a given.

2) The NDP form the official opposition with the Liberals in third place. Combined, NDP/Liberal = a small majority.

3) Ignatieff doesn't win his own seat and immediately steps down as Liberal Leader.

4) Harper presents his budget (same one as last time) and is defeated on a Confidence motion.

5) NDP is asked by the Govenor General to form a Gov't if he feels he can get the support of the House.

6) Jack Layton becomes Prime Minister of Canada.

and..... are you ready for it......

7) The Liberals, with Ignatieff having stepped down appoint Bob Rae as interim Leader of the Liberal Party.


So.... Now we have a NDP Prime Minster with a former NDP Premier as Liberal Leader backing him up.

Our country turns HARD LEFT and away we go.... to what we know not!!!  
 
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Mon May 02, 2011 12:56 am

Quoting photopilot (Reply 9):
Our country turns HARD LEFT and away we go.... to what we know not!!!

To a sputtering economy, extended deficits, and turmoil in the markets.

Layton promised all kinds of stuff he knows he can't deliver because there's no money for it. In some respects, I almost hope Layton wins a majority government so I can watch the dance he has to do. It will be Bob Rae writ large.

Ignatieff is done. I can see a Liberal-NDP merger of some sort. It took the right about 10 years to realize it would never hold power if it remained split between Reform/Alliance and PCs. The left/centre will do the same thing.
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Mon May 02, 2011 2:12 am

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 5):
  No doubt that was effective. Also shows that iggy has a little more class (a lot more class) than Harper since the amount of character assassination by the Libs was at a minimum.

If we learn anything from south of the border, its that if you stay silent when being swift-boated (which this is) then it works against you at the polls. Example being John Kerry in 2004.

Quoting photopilot (Reply 9):
Harper wins another minority gov't. That's a given.

If he does and its most likely (I'm in Australia and am sitting this one out) will they turf him as leader because I think after five years its pretty clear that Ontario doesn't trust Harper or any Alberta conservative for that matter to run the show with a majority. They need an Ontario conservative to run the party to get support there.

People out west can flame me for this but Ontario has 1/3 of the population of Canada, and this is Harper's 4th attempt at it.
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czbbflier
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Mon May 02, 2011 1:03 pm

Quoting StarAC17 (Reply 11):
People out west can flame me for this but Ontario has 1/3 of the population of Canada, and this is Harper's 4th attempt at it.

I flame you with a BIC lighter.







But then I'll put the fire out with a beer.






Nicely put.
 
connies4ever
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Mon May 02, 2011 1:11 pm

Quoting photopilot (Reply 9):
Ok, here's a scenario just to keep the NeoCons sleepless at night.

You really want to stir up the conspiracy theorists, don't you ?  
Quoting Arrow (Reply 10):
Ignatieff is done.

Absolutely. Back to academe for him.

Quoting StarAC17 (Reply 11):
If he does and its most likely (I'm in Australia and am sitting this one out) will they turf him as leader because I think after five years its pretty clear that Ontario doesn't trust Harper or any Alberta conservative for that matter to run the show with a majority. They need an Ontario conservative to run the party to get support there.

People out west can flame me for this but Ontario has 1/3 of the population of Canada, and this is Harper's 4th attempt at it.

I'm from the West and I won't flame you. A pollster I saw on The National recently said Harper has a very energized base of about 30% or so who absolutely love him, no matter what he does. And he also has a very energized group of about 40% who absolutely loathe him, no matter what he does. So there is very little room for him to row poll-wise. If it's not today, he never gets that majority. And since he has defined this election as basically "a majority or bust", I'm going to call it bust. The party will turn on him and he will leave rather than be fired.

Ever look at the back of a $50 bill ? That's a Tory retirement party.

Ontario has closer to 40% of the population, actually.

Hmm...Prime Minister Layton...
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WildcatYXU
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Mon May 02, 2011 1:45 pm

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 13):
A pollster I saw on The National recently said Harper has a very energized base of about 30% or so who absolutely love him, no matter what he does.



I'd say the situation is slightly different. 30% of the population understands that leftists won't bring us anything good. It has nothing to do with Harper as a leader. Au contraire, many of us think Harper should step down...

I'll vote conservative tonight. Mrs. Wildcat and the the oldest Wildkitten will most likely follow.
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Mon May 02, 2011 3:42 pm

Quoting Arrow (Reply 10):
In some respects, I almost hope Layton wins a majority government so I can watch the dance he has to do.

We NEED the NDP to get elected, so we can go through a nationwide calamity like we did in Ontario and BC when the NDP was in charge. It is guaranteed that the NDP would cease to be a national party after taxpayers see the havoc and discord that party would sow, while they bankrupt the country both fiscally and morally. Whoever thinks the NDP are social democratic are out to lunch, they are communist.  
 
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Mon May 02, 2011 4:25 pm

Quoting WildcatYXU (Reply 14):
I'd say the situation is slightly different. 30% of the population understands that leftists won't bring us anything good.

Yeah, because healthcare and balanced budgets aren't good things. At least 70% of the population understands that Tory times are tough times.
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WildcatYXU
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Mon May 02, 2011 4:43 pm

Quoting MattRB (Reply 16):
Yeah, because healthcare and balanced budgets aren't good things.



So you say the tories don't care about health care and balanced budget? Yeah, sure...
I'd really like to know how the lefties want to pay for everything they promised. Well, since they don't talk about it, most likely the easiest way: by raising tax the rates. Do you really want to pay Europe-like taxes?
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TheCol
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Mon May 02, 2011 5:29 pm

Quoting MattRB (Reply 16):
Yeah, because healthcare and balanced budgets aren't good things.

Don't kid yourself. Management of our health care system is on the provincial level. Our MSP payments don't go to the feds.

Quoting MattRB (Reply 16):
At least 70% of the population understands that Tory times are tough times.

Oh, really? Last time I checked, the economy was doing fairly well. Of course that wouldn't be the case if Jack Layton has his way with the oil sands.
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connies4ever
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Mon May 02, 2011 5:36 pm

Quoting WildcatYXU (Reply 17):
I'd really like to know how the lefties want to pay for everything they promised. Well, since they don't talk about it, most likely the easiest way: by raising tax the rates. Do you really want to pay Europe-like taxes?

You might want to bear in mind that in Manitoba the NDP have won 3 straight majorities, have more or less kept the books balanced, and have lowered tax rates. Oh, and Manitoba has the 2nd lowest unemployment rate in the country at 5.5%. The 'lefties' are not necessarily spending like drunken sailors, or giving it away to their corporate pals.
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MattRB
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Mon May 02, 2011 5:43 pm

Quoting WildcatYXU (Reply 17):
So you say the tories don't care about health care and balanced budget?

We're how much in the hole thanks to Harper? After how many years of balanced budgets and surpluses?

Harper wants healthcare in this country dead:

"In 1995, Harper said 'the federal government should contemplate' a proposal advanced by Quebec's finance minister wherein the federal government would transfer tax points, instead of money, to the provinces for social programs. With no cash transfers, Ottawa would lose its only hammer to enforce the Canada Health Act."

http://www.google.com/hostednews/can...afxJe88b5kBmKi46FzNQ?docId=6663567

Quoting WildcatYXU (Reply 17):
I'd really like to know how the lefties want to pay for everything they promised. Well, since they don't talk about it, most likely the easiest way: by raising tax the rates. Do you really want to pay Europe-like taxes?

They've done more to explain how they'll pay for things than Harper has.

How do you think Harper will pay down the deficit? If you think he's not going to raise taxes on households (remember, he wants to cut corporate taxes - who do you think will make up the difference?), you've got your head buried firmly in the sand. If he's not going to raise taxes, what is he going to cut? He won't say either way when asked, so why is he hiding the answer from Canadians?

He promised more open government & has failed to deliver. He raised taxes during the roughest recession since The Great Depression. He can't get the numbers right on anything he presents (deficit, F-35 cost) & his Finance Minister thinks Canada (corporate taxation-wise) looking like Ireland is a good thing (have you seen the trouble Ireland is in these days?). He was wrong on the GST cut (panned by the majority of economists in the country). He is wrong on the long form census.

He's taking this country down a road to ruin and thinks he deserves a majority government? I think not.
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Powerslide
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Mon May 02, 2011 5:59 pm

Quoting MattRB (Reply 20):
If he's not going to raise taxes, what is he going to cut?

The useless social programs, hopefully.
 
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WildcatYXU
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Mon May 02, 2011 11:31 pm

Quoting MattRB (Reply 20):
Harper wants healthcare in this country dead:

TheCol already told you that, so I just quote him:

Quoting TheCol (Reply 18):
Management of our health care system is on the provincial level.
Quoting MattRB (Reply 20):
Harper wants healthcare in this country dead:

"In 1995,

So you base your opinion on a 16 years old quote?

Quoting MattRB (Reply 20):
If you think he's not going to raise taxes on households (remember, he wants to cut corporate taxes - who do you think will make up the difference?), you've got your head buried firmly in the sand

Let's put it this way: I won't be surprised if a conservative federal government would increase personal income tax rates. OTOH I'd be surprised if a hypothetical Lieberal or NDP government wouldn't do the same. Especially after businesses start leaving Canada after the corporate tax hike.

Quoting MattRB (Reply 20):
Finance Minister thinks Canada (corporate taxation-wise) looking like Ireland is a good thing (have you seen the trouble Ireland is in these days?)

So you say that Ireland's problems are caused solely by low corporate tax rates? That's really interesting...

Quoting MattRB (Reply 20):
He raised taxes during the roughest recession since The Great Depression.

It looks like I missed something, which federal tax (other than EI/CPP contribution) was increased by the Harper government?
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connies4ever
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Tue May 03, 2011 12:49 am

Quoting WildcatYXU (Reply 22):
Let's put it this way: I won't be surprised if a conservative federal government would increase personal income tax rates. OTOH I'd be surprised if a hypothetical Lieberal or NDP government wouldn't do the same. Especially after businesses start leaving Canada after the corporate tax hike.

He won't raise personal income taxes, but he may eliminate some deductions - which amounts to the same thing. If Harper was really intellectually honest, he'd raise the HST back to where it would have been had he not foolishly reduced the GST from 7% to 5%. As an economist (allegedly) he should know that reducing personal income over a consumption tax is much preferable:
- you get the disadvantaged off the tax rolls entirely, which helps their situaiton, and
- the more advantaged people in our country (me, for example) spend more, therefore pay more in consumption tax. It's a flat tax as well. That should appeal to those from Red Neck, oh, sorry, Red Deer.

But going back on the consumption tax reduction would for Harper be an admission that he made a mistake, and he's far too arrogant to do that.

But as I indicated in an earlier post, I think we should be prepared for some surprises tonight.

Sweet dreams everyone !   
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skysurfer
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Tue May 03, 2011 1:02 am

Good luck to everyone and the parties you all voted for. I can't vote yet so i've just been following it from the stands and this election finally promises to be an interesting one. It's on tv right now and i'm sitting down with my feet up, a beer in my hands and actually some excitement and nail biting going on!

Cheers

Stu
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Tue May 03, 2011 2:31 am

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 1):
Canada has elections?

Yep

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...ction-ctv-television-projects.html

There goes the neighborhood..

[Edited 2011-05-02 20:22:54]
Hey that guy with the private jet can bail us out! Why? HE CAN AFFORD IT!
 
YYZflyer
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Tue May 03, 2011 3:00 am

Harper got a majority government....crap.   
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Boeing744
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Tue May 03, 2011 4:00 am

Wow, this is unbelievable. I think everyone is astonished at the results... Especially the NDP strength and Liberal and Bloc annihilation. Perhaps the biggest shift in an election in Canadian history within the opposition parties.

Also, May seems to have won in Saanich-Gulf Islands. I will eat my words there... Good for her.
 
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LAXintl
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Tue May 03, 2011 6:13 am

Congrats neighbors.   

Now with a first time majority, Harper can hopefully lead the manner he has always wished. Like him or hate him, now he has the ball fully and you can judge his accomplishments or failures a few years down the road.
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JoeCanuck
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Tue May 03, 2011 6:14 am

Well...this is good news.

The Liberal collapse was greater than I thought but not surprising. Iggy was an incredibly short sighted and inept leader...he has led the liberal party to their worst federal showing...ever. He meant well but during his years of teaching, he forgot to learn.

Layton...Harper said it best...all smiles and snake oil. 60% of his caucus is from Quebec. He's now the official opposition, something he never dreamed of two weeks ago. Consolidating and maintaining solidarity of his troops will be like herding cats. During the campaign, he never answered questions about how he would manage to pay for all of his promises. He knew he'd never have to deal with that reality so he can promise anything he wants. The cracks in the NDP will appear within 6 months and the party will be a wreck by the time they get to the next election.

Harper got his majority and parliament can finally get some work done. Finally, a stable government...no worries about the shysters spending another 300 million dollars, (they've wasted over a billion and a half so far in the past 5 years on elections alone), dreaming of the fairytale of residing in 24 sussex.

We can all go back to work and wait for the nattering of smilin' jack nattering away across the floor.
What the...?
 
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czbbflier
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Tue May 03, 2011 6:23 am

This is going to be an historic night. Everybody says so but... "plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose".

In the short term:
Conservative Majority, NDP Official Opposition, Liberal rump, Bloc evisceration, Green breakthrough.

Party breakdown:

** Conservative Party **************
With a majority, the Conservatives are going to be able to implement their agenda, whatever that truly is. With 5 years of minority rule, the Tories have seen their agenda moulded- gnarled- by the pressures of the other parties.

We will see the budget passed. We will see the new fighter jets. We will see the new prisons. We will see their economic and social agenda unfold.

In truth, in all honesty, nobody except Jason Kenny, Stephen Harper and a few others really know what that is.


** Liberal Party **********************
It had to take a virtually total collapse of the party to finally get to work to clean out the rot and corruption that has accumulated over the decades. There has been for a very, very long time a sense of entitlement, a sense of glorification of the pinnacle in Canadian government- the tenure of Sussex Drive but the membership has long been ignored by the party elites.

With the rise to power of "Mr. Dithers" Paul Martin and the unprecedented McCarthy-like witch hunts to push out those who were not in agreement (lock-step) with Martin- and there are thousands of them- heavyweights all of them- the party is a mere shadow of its former self.

Ignatieff will be gone in the next six weeks while the tiny caucus scrambles around trying to figure out what the hell they can do with no money and no resources. It is going to be a very painful and quiet caucus room while they try to get their feet under themselves.

** Bloc Quebecois *****************
Gilles Duceppe is gone. The BQ is in serious trouble. While the Parti Quebecois just re-affirmed the leadership of Pauline Marois, I would expect that Duceppe will be shadowing her, making her life quite a challenge.

Don't count out the separatists though.... things are calm on the separatist front for now. But the moment that the Conservatives, based in the West and Toronto start to do things that piss off Quebeckers and the NDP stumbles or fails to speak wholeheartedly for the traditional Quebec-first view, separatism will be back stronger than ever.

** Green Party *********************
The beach head has been established. The Green Party now has exactly half of the seats the Conservative Party had in 1993.

Finally, Canadians might have an opportunity to see exactly how a Green Party might look like and how it might operate. It is full to the brim of passionate but incredibly naive volunteers. Their campaign in my riding where former leader Adrienne Carr ran was hokey and completely out of synch with the electorate: Driving around on Davie Street in a glorified golf cart just doesn't cut it with us.

The Greens sound very left-wing but I am under the understanding that elsewhere they are quite right-wing. The traditional 'green' and 'labour' vote are tied in Canada through the coalition that is the NDP- more on that in a moment. Consequently it will be very interesting to see Elizabeth May, their now sole MP and party leader begin the tightrope walk toward growth.

** New Democratic Party (NDP) **
Declaration of Full Disclosure: I am a former provincial BC NDP candidate who ran against the now premier of British Columbia, former federal riding association president and one who fell heavily out of the NDP when I ran and lost in the nomination race to represent the party in the 2004 election. I am not yet aligned with any political party but my stale inside view of the NDP will no doubt show itself in this commentary.

The NDP made massive, massive gains tonight in Quebec. Outsiders will view that as a huge gain for Canada and a diminishment of the sovereignty movement in Quebec. Do not fool yourselves.

The up and coming days, weeks and months will be very telling. Will the NDP be able to grow up? The heartland of the NDP lies on the Prairies where there is a natural antipathy to Quebec and its own aspirations. As a federal NDPer years ago, I long advocated that the NDP work to increase its french content in its printed materials. My exhortations fell on deaf ears.

Today, there is now a huge divide in the party. The long-term base of the party resides in Ontario and the West while the overwhelming majority of the caucus now comes from Quebec. The party is now stretched literally a mile-wide and an inch-deep with its real depth in the wrong places. Kinda like being having a pear-shaped body but an hourglass-shaped shadow.

The federal party is often considered to be the runt-child of the provincial parties and so it will be interesting to see how Jack Layton and his new team are able to muscle up and command a place at the party's 'grown-up' table.

Recently in the province of British Columbia the provincial leader was pushed aside and there were a lot of hard feelings over that move. The 13 MLAs (members of the legislative Assembly) who forced her to step down were vilified and that reflects the naiveté that exists within the party as well. NDPers see themselves as different. They think they are better than regular politicians but in fact they are just as bad.

Dirty politics exist in the NDP too and as the federal party grows up and becomes more vulnerable to scrutiny, as it starts to make compromises in the drive to form government, self-riteous self-impressions won't stand up to reality and there are going to be a lot of disappointed run-of-the-mill party members. The base will be shaken.

Medium to Long Term
Give Parliament nine months to two years to settle into a more predictable pattern.... where messages get rehashed over and over again... when track records start to build up and the pressures of monotony and limitations start to pen the new dynamics in.

You'll start to see then how things will start to shake down leading up to the next election in 2015.

Here are a couple of longer-term scenarios I'll predict now.

1. The Conservatives will entrench themselves and will become the 'governing party' for at least the next 15 years. It is going to take that long for the various opposition parties to either fizzle out or merge to create a behemoth large enough to take on the Conservative machine.

2. The BQ will fizzle out. No big bang... just nothing. The three BQ voices in the House of Commons will be whispers in the wilderness while the NDPs massive voice in Quebec drowns them out. But again take note: they'll fizzle but while the flame is out, the wick... or fuse... is still there. It will take something very small to ignite that flame again. Considering Quebeckers are generally socially progressive and the new Conservative government is generally socially conservative, I expect that the sovereignty question will once again arise except this time over social values. I expect Quebec nationalism to be an issue perhaps not in the next federal election but most definitely in the subsequent one.

3. The Conservatives will start to show their Reform Party roots by about year two. Just as the Mike Harris Government showed in Ontario with its "Common Sense Revolution", the Jacobites will be at play and common sense will become ideological, rather than practical. Backbenchers will be flexing their frustrated muscle and Harper will be expending a lot of political capital to keep his wayward ducks in a row. This will feed quite naturally into the opposition parties.

Despite this, the Conservatives will win a second majority although 'democracy' in Ottawa will be in severely short supply. To keep all his wayward ducks in a row, Harper will have had to clamp down heavily on all aspects of government and Parliament will be on the verge of exploding.

This is not going to be a pleasant 41st Parliament. It is going to be divisive and mean spirited. Mostly because Harper will have to tightly control all information that flows through all of Parliament. The Auditor General will even have a hard time to get information needed to do audits by year three.

The $2.00 per vote subsidy to all the political parties will be discontinued, causing the opposition parties, especially the underfunded Liberals to howl and scream blood murder. But this will be the one measure that will eventually be the downfall of the Conservative run as government at about the time I retire.

4. The Green Party is going to go one of two ways: it will either grow exponentially à la Barack Obama's "We Can" campaign and radically shake the fringes of Parliament in the next election or else it will prove itself incapable of waging what will essentially be a war against the Conservatives, the NDP and the Liberals. The Conservatives with their majority are going to do things that are completely anathema to the Greens. The NDP already has a significant stake in the environmental movement in Canada and the Liberals, famous for usurping other party's platforms, will be jockeying for any attention it can get. Elizabeth May has her work cut out for her!

5. The NDP, as I mentioned, will be stretched very thin and very quickly. Tensions within the party will start to fester as the momentum near the top of the party will pull the party toward the centre while its base, tantalizingly close to power will start to demand its historic platform be brought forward. Canadians have no appetite for things like nationalized banks or having free transportation a right. Furthermore, Manitoba and Saskatchewan are the exceptions to this rule: the NDP governments in BC and in Ontario have both been thrown out for mismanagement of the economy. Shell games are what the NDP are known for and as much as they strive to achieve gains, I have a small nagging feeling that the party will implode over these strains. The commentators are wondering if this is going to be the beginning of a long run as official opposition for the NDP.... my gut thinks not. Two Parliaments and that's about all the electorate are going to be able to take.

Also, on a very sober note, ALL of the electoral success of the NDP is as a result of the leader, Jack Layton. Unfortunately, he is not the healthiest of leaders, undergoing treatment for cancer... I expect he will either have to retire or else he will not survive more than one more election. I hope he does but reality is reality. Should the unthinkable happen, what then? On this point, the crystal ball goes completely dark but because of that shadow, I cannot give a completely positive prognosis of the party's gains tonight.

6. The Liberals are on life support as of tonight. No question. However, the heart of the Liberal Party lies in Quebec and Quebec politics is anything but stale. As much as the base of the NDP out West will be dissatisfied with the efforts of its elected officials based in Quebec, so too will the riding associations in Quebec be at odds with the long-time traditions of the CCF-NDP. Tommy Douglas, a demi-god on the Prairies in certain quarters is simply not known in Quebec. These soft-federalist/nationalists, but resoundingly socially progressive folks will be searching out yet a new vehicle to advance their cause in Ottawa and the Liberal Party, les Rouges, will be there, with their deep history in the province ready to represent them.

As Stephen Harper continues to clamp down on information, on MPs on Parliament, there is going to be a clear desire for change leading up to the next election. But the party won't be ready to capture that sentiment. It will regain Official Opposition status as of the next election and probably retake government in about 2020.

I mentioned above that the $2.00 subsidy to political parties will be the long-term undoing of the Conservative run in government. Right now, donations to political parties are limited to very small amounts as the parties are essentially funded by the number of votes they receive in an election. This is a very serious fetter for those who could go out and get more donations.

Because the Liberals are in such a mess, there are not very many donors who are willing to give to the party so it is living off that $2.00 subsidy. The subsidy will end just as the party becomes a credible, viable force again and donations by capitalists / industrialists eager to have their moment of glory at the feeding trough and eager to keep the socialists out of government will start emptying their wallets into the Liberal party coffers..... but again that will take time.

But let's be honest: it's money that talks. When the 'coalition' that supported Harper and the Conservatives begin to shut out all the other monied folk in the country, a country where pork-barrelling is a way of life for capitalists and industrialists, there will be a need for the Liberal Party once again. For all their moving to the centre, the NDP certainly won't be looking to bring big-business into its bosom and so it will fall to someone else.

So the Liberal Party will have to do a complete house cleaning. Much of the rot is recent: less than 10 years old. The party is going to have to renew itself genuinely and work to attract its traditional base back.

One caveat to much of this: I do not have a strong read on the 'youth'. The next generation of voters, a generation that is even larger than the baby-boomers are just coming on line to vote. They will have a significant impact on the future elections- impact that my generation didn't have because we simply weren't big enough (I'm part of the "bust" that followed the "boom"). They are much more ecologically sensitive on the one hand but much less ideological about how to achieve those goals on the other. Is there such thing as an eco-conservative? I doubt it. But then again, will they vote Green, NDP, a pro-business greenish Liberal Party, a merged NDP and Liberal parties, or a mixture of all three?

Only time will tell.


For me personally, I am very disappointed in the results tonight. I am not a Conservative / conservative. I am wary of the this brand of Conservatism and would not trust Stephen Harper with my iPhone and wallet- not because he'd take the money but because he'd take the phone, have a subroutine programmed into it to monitor my absolutely everything- and use it against me for the slightest transgression.... like jaywalking... and have me thrown into the new prison he'd just built.

But the election is done. We have a majority and Stephen Harper will finally be able to shape this country with his palate of colours. Our democracy is amazing and the voters have proven once again that the pundits are just goofs most of the time. As a pundit of sorts myself, I am humbled by what I saw tonight.

Fortunately, tomorrow the cows will still produce milk. And life goes on.
 
ronglimeng
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Tue May 03, 2011 7:00 am

This is the second federal election that I have followed from outside the Dominion. The first was the 1979 election which was also a liberal Party setback.

I can still remember the rueful comments of a defeated Liberal Cabinet Minister at that time, as heard over my short-wave radio in the middle of Africa: "Well, the people have spoken".

Let us remember that is the real essence of our democracy...that politicians and parties do their best and then gracefully accept defeat when the count goes against them.
 
connies4ever
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Tue May 03, 2011 1:18 pm

Quoting Boeing744 (Reply 27):
Wow, this is unbelievable. I think everyone is astonished at the results... Especially the NDP strength and Liberal and Bloc annihilation. Perhaps the biggest shift in an election in Canadian history within the opposition parties.

Also, May seems to have won in Saanich-Gulf Islands. I will eat my words there... Good for her.

A tectonic shft, indeed. Not really what I was expecting, although after seeing the initial Atlantic results I had this sinking feeling the Tories would win big.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 28):
Now with a first time majority, Harper can hopefully lead the manner he has always wished. Like him or hate him, now he has the ball fully and you can judge his accomplishments or failures a few years down the road.

Yes he can, and yes we will. But I suspect simple inertia and opposition intenral probelms, both with the NDP (educating their new-found brethren in Quebec) and the Libs (just figuring out what they want to be) will allow the Tories to get a 2nd majority.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 29):
Layton...Harper said it best...all smiles and snake oil. 60% of his caucus is from Quebec. He's now the official opposition, something he never dreamed of two weeks ago. Consolidating and maintaining solidarity of his troops will be like herding cats. During the campaign, he never answered questions about how he would manage to pay for all of his promises. He knew he'd never have to deal with that reality so he can promise anything he wants. The cracks in the NDP will appear within 6 months and the party will be a wreck by the time they get to the next election.

Harper got his majority and parliament can finally get some work done. Finally, a stable government...no worries about the shysters spending another 300 million dollars, (they've wasted over a billion and a half so far in the past 5 years on elections alone), dreaming of the fairytale of residing in 24 sussex.

The NDP in Quebec are a mile wide and an inch deep. For gosh sake, they elected a woman who was in vegas for 3 weeks during the campaign. Don't know if she was on vacation or pole dancing. Many of the newbies haven't even been on a volunteer board of directors, let alone in Parliament, so a steep learning curve, lots of potential frustrations and flash points. I can't see them winning 58 seats in Quebec next election.

Shysters ? The shysters have the majority now.

Quoting czbbflier (Reply 30):
We will see the budget passed. We will see the new fighter jets. We will see the new prisons. We will see their economic and social agenda unfold.

In truth, in all honesty, nobody except Jason Kenny, Stephen Harper and a few others really know what that is

The Tories have a social agenda ? Oh, it's the "if you're poor you deserve to be poor" sociall agenda borrowed from Reagan. The economic agenda is to give money to corporations.

Jason Kenney is the guy to watch. He has been accumulating IOU's for the future, and clearly sees himself as Harper's successor. A dangerous man.

Democracy is a funny thing, this isn't what I thought would happen. I am frequently out of step with society (being a Liberal) but that doesn't bother me so much. What does bother me is having a government that wants to build prisons for people who have committed crimes that have not been reported. WTF ? Thought police are enxt.

So I will pray for my country.
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
 
StarAC17
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Tue May 03, 2011 2:20 pm

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 32):
Yes he can, and yes we will. But I suspect simple inertia and opposition intenral probelms, both with the NDP (educating their new-found brethren in Quebec) and the Libs (just figuring out what they want to be) will allow the Tories to get a 2nd majority.

Even with a majority and the right to do whatever we wants.

If Harper gets too cocky and becomes tougher on victim less crimes (we like our pot  ) and becomes what the opposition fears which is a social conservative with an agenda that goes along with that. The Canadian people are not going to tolerate it and kick him to the curb in 4 years time. Hopefully there are still PC's in the CPC to keep him in check as well.

Lets see what he does with economy where he is more trusted.
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Powerslide
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Tue May 03, 2011 9:26 pm

A lot of sour grapes in this thread. Too bad we have to listen to this tripe for eight more years.
 
osiris30
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Tue May 03, 2011 10:53 pm

Quoting powerslide (Reply 34):
A lot of sour grapes in this thread. Too bad we have to listen to this tripe for eight more years.

Agree with the first sentiment, not the second. I've seen people whine about how 60% didn't vote Tory but there's a Tory majority... well if you exclude Quebec (and I'll expand on this in a moment, it's not a shot at my Quebec brethren), the Tories got 48+% of the popular vote.

Now as for why I excluded Quebec, I view what happened in Quebec as an anomaly. The Quebec voters turned on the Bloq as they have been unable to do anything meaningful and bought the BS Layton was shoveling. That won't happen in 4 years time. Quebec voters are a tricky tricky bunch with no allegiance to speak of. If they can do that to the Bloq, they can turn on the NDP just as quickly.

This election result is completely explainable. The Liberals basically disqualified themselves through two things:
1) The choice of a questionable (to be kind) 'leader'
2) Forcing Canadians to the polls *again*. For all the whining about Harper shaping the country into 'his vision' and 'Canada won't be recognizable', the Liberal Party seemed unwilling to accept the will of Canadians when it didn't fit 'their vision'. They should have left well enough alone.

To the orange supporters cheering, look at your numbers closely. You did well, but it was really only on Quebec that any significant gains were made. Exclude that and you're about 'normal'.... which is *not* a good showing considering how much Liberal hate there was. Layton has an impossible task with a very junior team and a truly powerless opposition. I would not want that job in a billion years.

Once you frame the situation going into the election and you look at the results, it was entirely predictable.

Now for the second sentiment re 8 years, I would be hard pressed to believe that if the Liberals can forward a decent PM candidate in four years that things won't go back to 'normal'. The Tories picked up a lot of center support that was unwilling to go Jack Layton left, and thought that Harper and his party were closer to center than Layton (which is probably a fair statement).

I also think all the doom and gloom for the center left and left is just that. Harper isn't an idiot and knows he has a chance to impress the center base he picked up. I expect that will temper his agenda to some extent. In order to have any chance at repeating this performance he will need to keep those people close at hand. The NDP will likely get shelled in the next election and the defection will be to (instead of from) the Liberal party the next time around. If Harper loses the center votes he picked up (in that scenario), he will be the next leader of the opposition.

My two cents/analysis anyway.

Steve
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
skysurfer
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Tue May 03, 2011 10:54 pm

I won't go into anything too much and will keep this pretty short as the thread shouldn't dissolve into rants and raves.
I'm glad the Conservatives won for various personal reasons, and the results of the NDP/ BQ/ LIB were a complete surprise for me. I'm excited that this country has finally spoken up to change the political landscape and it's going to be interesting to see where 'we' head over the next couple of years. Now, i'll admit I didn't make it through all of Harpers speech because, be honest.....it was absolutely boring and without spirit. However, what I just wanted to comment on was Gilles Duceppe. I am soooooo glad that pot-stirring, aggravating excuse for a politician has departed (although probably still hiding in the background with his spoon). Hearing his departure speech was something that should absolutely disgust every Canadian citizen/resident. If some of you didn't catch it, he just couldn't resist having one last shot for a 'free Quebec' and saying that Quebec should fight to be a 'Country'. Nice one Gilles, you showed your true side there and I guess that's why the people voted your party out and took your throne away.
As everyone above has mentioned, the NDP do indeed have a lot to prove and good luck to them because they're going to need it. They seem to appeal to the younger crowd for various reasons, I should know as I used to be involved with them here in Kingston, Ontario. However, Jack Layton should seriously start looking into his new and existing candidates to straighten out the house now the NDP are the official opposition.....candidates drinking with underage party members on a regular basis or at official conferences will not help their cause or image.

Here's to Canada

Cheers.
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connies4ever
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Wed May 04, 2011 12:36 am

Quoting powerslide (Reply 34):
A lot of sour grapes in this thread. Too bad we have to listen to this tripe for eight more years.

It's an initial reaction. All this will pass. Get a grip !

The election is the expression of the people, and, given the system we have, it is what it is. So Harper et al win and, perhaps, will win next time. Not a certainty. I won't comment on your 2nd statement, you just need to moderate things a little.
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
 
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czbbflier
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Wed May 04, 2011 1:14 am

Quoting powerslide (Reply 34):
A lot of sour grapes in this thread. Too bad we have to listen to this tripe for eight more years.

Just a little editorial in what I think was fair and balanced reporting of what is going on. A couple of points I might add now that I have had some sleep....
Having been in minority government, the Conservative agenda has been gnarled- deformed by the pressures and compromises of minority government. What we have seen so far is not what the Conservatives would have liked to see nor is it what the NDP, Bloc and Liberals (although less so) would have liked to see. The fetters are off now. Conservatives ought to be happy!

Am I happy? No, but on the other hand, there are no sour grapes here. I'm not complaining- just commenting with an editorial at the end. Going back to Preston Manning and his RE-FORRRRRMMMM Party, this victory has been a long time coming and hard fought.

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 35):
I would be hard pressed to believe that if the Liberals can forward a decent PM candidate in four years that things won't go back to 'normal'. The Tories picked up a lot of center support that was unwilling to go Jack Layton left, and thought that Harper and his party were closer to center than Layton (which is probably a fair statement).

I also think all the doom and gloom for the center left and left is just that.

I agree with much of what you are saying- I just think it will take another electoral cycle for it to come to fruition.

As for the 8 years? No doubt there will be some whinging over the next eight years: small price to pay for changing the social fabric of Canada.  
 
A332
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Wed May 04, 2011 4:53 am

I'm just glad the Conservatives finally got their majority government. Here's to 4 years of stability!

THE WEST IS IN!

Poor Quebec. You changed your stripes and gave Jack Layton your support... and it's all for nothing.
Bad spellers of the world... UNTIE!
 
YVRLTN
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Wed May 04, 2011 5:21 am

Quoting skysurfer (Reply 24):
I can't vote yet so i've just been following it from the stands

Im in the same boat, though not following it as closely as some. My 2 cents as an onlooker:

From where I came from in the UK, things have gone down the toilet. Yes, there is the largest downturn in recent history, but years of failed policy are to blame. Then look to the rest of Europe, half of the nations are bankrupt. Then theres our neighbors to the south. We know about Japan and other economies. All in all, as an outisider looking in, it seems to me Canada is one of the best places to be. Which means the current government, depsite their restrictions ( that may be their salvation...) are doing something right. Im not saying everything is all rosy, but in the current economic climate it seems to me things are as good here as we can possibly expect them to be. So really it only makes sense to vote for more of the same.

Look at the other candidates in any detail and you will find their are holes in their bucket, eg

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 29):
During the campaign, he never answered questions about how he would manage to pay for all of his promises. He knew he'd never have to deal with that reality so he can promise anything he wants. The cracks in the NDP will appear within 6 months and the party will be a wreck by the time they get to the next election.

IMO, it maybe the best of a bad bunch, but it seems the Conservatives have it the most together and thats what any nation needs, but particularly in a time of economic recovery and international unrest. Now we just need them to stand by their word and not go crazy with the power of the majority. Probably more hope of a Stanley Cup in YVR, but hey...

On a more personal note, any party who leaves me 6 messages on my answerphone after being away for a week does not deserve my vote. In fact, if they cared about me that much, they would have known I am only a permanent resident and inelligble to vote anyways... And here in Richmond, the Liberal candidate jumped ships - that inspires confidence doesnt it...
Follow me on twitter for YVR movements @vernonYVR
 
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BO__einG
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RE: Canadian Election Thread

Wed May 04, 2011 6:02 am

My take on the election, about time the blue sweeps into the House of Commons in Ottawa. I am pretty happy that a conservative majority has now taken fruition. I would agree with most supporters that real work can finally be done and also to show proof to other countries that we are now definitely more stable and capable of doing good business and hopefully our economy will improve. Investments, ventures, expansions, and new businesses I hope will help keep us running positive.

Only caution measure is that the PM controls the spending a little bit more as the debt is getting up there. If he works hard to continue recovering our country while fixing the debt and addressing some major items, these next 4 years will go pretty dam well. But for now, he got his majority which is well deserved on a election he didn't even want so lets as voters give him a chance to run the country and see what he can do as a majority Prime Minister of Canada.
The west always seems pretty self sufficient on their own and obviously Harper doesn't have to worry much about support in these parts. That's why he didn't even come to Calgary until the last day which is ok. He will be busy having to address the issues of other provinces while supporting provinces will play the patient older brother.
Overall I love how the West is in+Center of the Universe aka. Toronto and of course the prairies, territories and maritimes. What an interesting share of representation involving Canada's two top Business hubs Calgary and Toronto which I'm sure the biz community will have some influence on Harper. The Oil boys here and the bankers at Bay st. Should be interesting.

Liberals: 34 seats seems like an epic collapse but it is IMO barely decent. Definitely needs to be rebuild and fixed up and some solid new leaders to take the helm. I do like Justin Trudeau but maybe another few more years until he is fully set for the top job.

Bloc: Hahaha, they basically got owned big time. That is an epic collapse and there is nothing more to say than that. Good riddance. As an Albertan I have very little care for sovereignists and their boastings of independent nationalism. Ottawa should function much easier.

NDP: I expected gains like 50-60 seats but 104 or was it 105? Pretty dam amazing to me. What the heck is with the color Orange, it seems to catch on whenever parties of other countries rise to power. What really impresses me and sorta makes me jealous are the 19-20 year old McGill university students who are now new members of parliament and automatically get a substantial salary starting at around 100k/year. Damm, maybe I shoulda joined politics when I was still a teen.
These kids will probably have to drop out of their studies and start taking notes from Mr. Layton their new teacher on how to run a country. Still this is a good life investment.
As for that chick who was in Vegas partying for 3 friggin weeks. I guess she did not take this seriously and thought that she would not win but did the public ever notice. She does look kinda hot so I will give prop to NDP for having a chick on their team. I'd buy her NDP endorsed calendars when that comes out.
Overall the leader has his work cut out for him and the big thing will be the factor of discipline to the newbies. Most times I think they best to just shut up and let the veterans do the talking, especially the students and the chick or they may cause drama and embarrassment to the party. Layton himself with his health issues, yeah I agree without him the NDP will implode. I predict he will boot out the troublemakers who I bet will be some of the youngsters and that chick.

Green: Go Green!! I think it is good that a Green Party Leader finally got her seat. Even if it is in the corner far away, Liz May has a big voice. I think she may be good for the house.

Ok my two cents.
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ScarletHarlot
Posts: 4251
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2003 12:15 pm

RE: Canadian Election Thread

Wed May 04, 2011 8:52 pm

I'm amazed and dismayed that Harper got a majority. But the thing that frightens me is that now we have a (for Canada) far-right party in power and a far-left party in opposition. Does this point to a polarization of the voters, like they have in the States? It's an awful situation in the States (where I live) and I would hate to see Canada come to that, two groups of voters who are convinced that the other side is completely without merit and even evil and who cannot even talk to each other.
But that was when I ruled the world
 
osiris30
Posts: 2310
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2006 10:16 am

RE: Canadian Election Thread

Wed May 04, 2011 9:19 pm

Quoting ScarletHarlot (Reply 42):
I'm amazed and dismayed that Harper got a majority. But the thing that frightens me is that now we have a (for Canada) far-right party in power and a far-left party in opposition. Does this point to a polarization of the voters, like they have in the States? It's an awful situation in the States (where I live) and I would hate to see Canada come to that, two groups of voters who are convinced that the other side is completely without merit and even evil and who cannot even talk to each other.

Obviously you're a center voter. Rest assured most Canadians are. However, the Liberals drove people left or right in this election by their choice of leader and forcing *another* election. I wouldn't get too too worried about polarization of voters in Canada. Those in the center that split both ways will be sufficiently displeased with either of their choices by the next election that things will be back to normal, barring massive Liberal screwup and massive success by the Conservatives or NDP (and I mean truly ground break success).

I also don't know that the the Conservative party as a whole deserves 'far right' status. I would say they are closer to the center than Layton and the NDP are, hence the Tory gains, whereas the NDP gains were minimal outside of Quebec (who seemed to vote by color and not candidate based on some of those they elected.. it's almost as if the people of Quebec voted simply to mock the process!).

Steve
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
Arrow
Posts: 2325
Joined: Wed Jun 19, 2002 7:44 am

RE: Canadian Election Thread

Wed May 04, 2011 9:37 pm

Quoting ScarletHarlot (Reply 42):
But the thing that frightens me is that now we have a (for Canada) far-right party in power and a far-left party in opposition. Does this point to a polarization of the voters, like they have in the States? It's an awful situation in the States (where I live) and I would hate to see Canada come to that,

Relax. Keep in mind that the terms "far left" and "far right" in Canada do not reflect how the Americans view politics. To the Americans, Harper would be seen as a moderate socialist, and the NDP seen as raving communists. I just spent two weeks in the US with relatives whose right wing views scared the bejeesus out of me. They would not like Harper. I tried to explain to them that the Canadian "right" is probably further left than the Democrats and they were horrified.

I suspect Harper, wanting to stay in power now that he''s finally achieved it, will govern close to the centre. He is not a social conservative, despite what the other guys say about him.

It's going to be fascinating to see what Layton does with a huge caucus full of newbies -- with 50% of them Quebecers. Ha! That will tax his policy wonks. My prediction is it will be a flash in the pan, and in four years most of that support will go somewhere else. I mean, the people who would vote for a candidate who lives 300 miles away, spent zero time in the riding, and went to Las Vegas for three weeks on vacation -- what can you say? That's a scary notion for democracy.
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Ralphski
Posts: 31
Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2011 4:29 am

RE: Canadian Election Thread

Thu May 05, 2011 5:17 am

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 35):
I also think all the doom and gloom for the center left and left is just that. Harper isn't an idiot and knows he has a chance to impress the center base he picked up. I expect that will temper his agenda to some extent.

Harper governed as if he had a majority from day one, with every action being an "I dare you" confidence vote. Now that he has a majority, it's full steam ahead. There will be no tempering of his agenda. He doesn't strike me as a man who cares about compromises or conciliatory notes. We shall see soon enough.
 
jcs17
Posts: 7376
Joined: Mon Jun 18, 2001 11:13 am

RE: Canadian Election Thread

Thu May 05, 2011 5:42 am

Huzzah! Conservatives win a majority, finally.

Do I expect Harper to repeal gay marriage or any social program? Absolutely not. The Conservatives don't want to rock the boat in that regard, but I certainly hope they start rolling back taxes. I hope they introduce a plan to eliminate the GST, and bring the Canadian income tax to par with the US. Eliminate the ridiculousness that this the CBC. Allow competitive bidding for Hockey Night, and let the liberal propaganda like "Little Mosque on the Prairie" find a public access show elsewhere. The fact is that most poor Canadian (and American) households have cable and flat screen! Finally, let Canadian and American white collar workers work between the borders without a visa.
America's chickens are coming home to rooooost!
 
Boeing744
Posts: 1737
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2005 1:27 pm

RE: Canadian Election Thread

Thu May 05, 2011 11:19 am

Quoting jcs17 (Reply 46):
Do I expect Harper to repeal gay marriage or any social program? Absolutely not. The Conservatives don't want to rock the boat in that regard,

Would Harper want to do this? Definitely not... The only thing that is a bit worrying is one of his MPs could introduce a private member's bill about some social issue. Harper does have a tight grip on his caucus usually, but if one member REALLY wants to repeal gay marriage (for example), there is nothing stopping him or her from putting something forth like that.

Let's say a guy did table a bill about gay marriage, though, for example. It would look terrible for the government. I think even a lot of Conservative members would support gay marriage if the question was yet again raised. During Harper's last try at reopening it some very prominent Conservatives expressed their support for same-sex marriage (McKay, Baird, Prentice, Cannon, etc.). The only problem is that it would be tough for Harper to whip his entire caucus into opposing something like a repeal to gay marriage, because this would piss off his far-right constituency. Are there now enough members in the house far-right enough to want to pass something like this? Probably not, but there's still that risk...
 
StarAC17
Posts: 3402
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

RE: Canadian Election Thread

Thu May 05, 2011 11:37 am

Quoting ScarletHarlot (Reply 42):
It's an awful situation in the States (where I live) and I would hate to see Canada come to that, two groups of voters who are convinced that the other side is completely without merit and even evil and who cannot even talk to each other.

Or even in a country like Australia, although I'm just learning politics down here and the two parties seem centre-left and centre-right, I don't really see any extreme views in the paper.

The only reason this happened is because the liberal party is up the creek without a paddle.

Quoting Arrow (Reply 44):
I just spent two weeks in the US with relatives whose right wing views scared the bejeesus out of me. They would not like Harper. I tried to explain to them that the Canadian "right" is probably further left than the Democrats and they were horrified.

Harper in reality is to the left of Obama.

Quoting Arrow (Reply 44):
I suspect Harper, wanting to stay in power now that he''s finally achieved it, will govern close to the centre. He is not a social conservative, despite what the other guys say about him.

  

If he goes extreme right (especially socially) Ontario is giving the government straight back to the liberals or even the NDP in 4 years.

Quoting jcs17 (Reply 46):
Do I expect Harper to repeal gay marriage or any social program? Absolutely not. The Conservatives don't want to rock the boat in that regard, but I certainly hope they start rolling back taxes. I hope they introduce a plan to eliminate the GST, and bring the Canadian income tax to par with the US.

He has a pretty decent size deficit to clean up, he might have to hike the GST or income taxes in the short term to deal with that. If he could have seen the future in regards to the financial crisis he probably wouldn't have reduced the GST to 5 from 7%. I would prefer keeping the GST and cutting income taxes instead.

As for taxes being on par with the US (it would be nice)maybe federally at some point but most Canadians accept paying a bit more in taxes for some additional services.
Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
 
connies4ever
Topic Author
Posts: 3393
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2006 10:54 pm

RE: Canadian Election Thread

Thu May 05, 2011 2:33 pm

Quoting Boeing744 (Reply 47):
Conservatives expressed their support for same-sex marriage (McKay, Baird, Prentice, Cannon, etc.

Well, Baird would support it, wouldn't he ?

Quoting StarAC17 (Reply 48):
He has a pretty decent size deficit to clean up, he might have to hike the GST or income taxes in the short term to deal with that. If he could have seen the future in regards to the financial crisis he probably wouldn't have reduced the GST to 5 from 7%. I would prefer keeping the GST and cutting income taxes instead.

If Harper had kept the GST at 7% we would not have the huge deficit we now have, only a moderate one. Keeping the GST/HST in place and reducing income tax when advisable is a better way to go. As an economist, Harper would already know that, but instead he played to public emotion. The GST/HST is as good a tax as anyone can have.
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