YokoTsuno
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Rumours About Deutschmark Being Reprinted

Wed Jun 29, 2011 2:09 pm

This newspaper suggested yesterday that Germany is printing Marks again.

http://www.ndtv.com/article/world/de...-instead-of-euro-in-germany-115046

How true is this story and if it is wouldn't Germany be committing political suicide within the EU by doing so?
 
Klaus
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RE: Rumours About Deutschmark Being Reprinted

Wed Jun 29, 2011 2:12 pm

The probability of that is exactly zero.

Authentic photographs of the Yeti and of flying saucers are much, much more plausible.
 
Braniff747SP
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RE: Rumours About Deutschmark Being Reprinted

Wed Jun 29, 2011 2:14 pm

I doubt this will happen. Really, really doubt it.
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Derico
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RE: Rumours About Deutschmark Being Reprinted

Wed Jun 29, 2011 2:16 pm

The problem is not if the probability is zero or not, it's the rumour itself. Sadly, most economic crises, while having genuine underlying reasons, are usually thrown over the edge by what turns out to be an erroneous or greatly exagerated rumour.
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wilco737
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RE: Rumours About Deutschmark Being Reprinted

Wed Jun 29, 2011 4:00 pm

Nah, that's not gonna happen... See how Merkel stands behind the EURO and defends it, no matter how much it costs...

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gatorfan
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RE: Rumours About Deutschmark Being Reprinted

Wed Jun 29, 2011 4:15 pm

However improbable, prudence would dictate that if there was a concern of euro disintegration, contingency plans be formulated. That being said, starting the process by having sufficient paper currency in an age where more and more spending is done through debit/credit cards and electronic fund transfers doesn't make a lot of sense.

A much more scary rumor would be that the German central bank brought in a bunch of programers to start rewriting the code for the infrastructure that would be necessary to handle DM denominated transactions.
 
Btblue
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RE: Rumours About Deutschmark Being Reprinted

Wed Jun 29, 2011 4:40 pm

Wouln't surprise me in the slightest... if they're printing them, doesn't mean they are about to use them but, should they wish to, in the event of a crisis, they have them to hand, ready to distribute. It's called planning for a crisis and as we all know (and as I heard first hand from a friend, who happens to be a TV economics editor) the state of economy in the EU right now is well, pretty much like a row of dominoes... one more knock and they're all gonna fall down.

Quoting gatorfan (Reply 5):
A much more scary rumor would be that the German central bank brought in a bunch of programers to start rewriting the code for the infrastructure that would be necessary to handle DM denominated transactions.

Spot on - reckon that's already been done.
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Klaus
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RE: Rumours About Deutschmark Being Reprinted

Wed Jun 29, 2011 5:35 pm

Quoting Derico (Reply 3):
The problem is not if the probability is zero or not, it's the rumour itself. Sadly, most economic crises, while having genuine underlying reasons, are usually thrown over the edge by what turns out to be an erroneous or greatly exagerated rumour.

This rumour has clearly been created with these kinds of interests behind it, or at least hoping for a temporary decline to aid in currency speculation. Doesn't seem to have the intended effect, however: 1€ = 1.44$ at this point, near its long-time high.

In order for such obviously false rumours to become really damaging, the currency would need to be in its final death throes, however, and it's not even remotely at such a point. It is stressed, but far from moribund and even flourishing.

Quoting wilco737 (Reply 4):
Nah, that's not gonna happen... See how Merkel stands behind the EURO and defends it, no matter how much it costs...

Particularly since the costs of the stabilizing programs are still way, way, way lower than those of a catastrophic abandonment of the Euro and a return to the situation before it which was the reason why the Euro was created in the first place.
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Rumours About Deutschmark Being Reprinted

Wed Jun 29, 2011 9:37 pm

Quoting Klaus (Reply 7):
This rumour has clearly been created with these kinds of interests behind it, or at least hoping for a temporary decline to aid in currency speculation. Doesn't seem to have the intended effect, however: 1€ = 1.44$ at this point, near its long-time high.

Yeah, probably because financial geniuses are smart enough to spot BS rumors, a skill the general population doesn't seem to have unfortunately
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racko
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RE: Rumours About Deutschmark Being Reprinted

Wed Jun 29, 2011 10:09 pm

Just simply disregard anything a British tabloid writes about Europe, the EU, or European nations. Same goes for other media outlets quoting British tabloids.
 
deltaownsall
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RE: Rumours About Deutschmark Being Reprinted

Thu Jun 30, 2011 11:55 am

Quoting YokoTsuno (Thread starter):
This newspaper suggested yesterday that Germany is printing Marks again.

Intriguing thought, despite Germany's abandonment of the euro at this point being completely unthinkable. Besides, looks like this same story was posted over a year ago, when the single currency was actually in considerably murkier waters: http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/176668/Germany-Marks-its-territory

Quoting Klaus (Reply 7):
however: 1€ = 1.44$ at this point, near its long-time high.

It's rallied nicely against the dollar over the past 10 months (   ) but didn't the euro touch 1.6 a few years back?
 
David L
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RE: Rumours About Deutschmark Being Reprinted

Thu Jun 30, 2011 12:25 pm

Obviously a load of nonsense.

Quoting racko (Reply 9):
Just simply disregard anything a British tabloid writes about Europe, the EU, or European nations. Same goes for other media outlets quoting British tabloids.

Call it a hunch but I suspect NDTV (formerly New Delhi Television) is not British and, according to the linked article, the poll they cite was carried out by the Frankfurter Allgemeine.

 
 
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Braybuddy
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RE: Rumours About Deutschmark Being Reprinted

Thu Jun 30, 2011 12:36 pm

A return to the deutschmark would be enormously damaging to German exporters given that the currency would appreciate considerably, so I can't see this being a runner, particularly in the current economic climate.
 
David L
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RE: Rumours About Deutschmark Being Reprinted

Thu Jun 30, 2011 12:55 pm

Let's face it, if there was anything to this rumour, it would be featured fairly prominently in business news all over the place, certainly in the EU countries, and not just in some tabloids.
 
Derico
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RE: Rumours About Deutschmark Being Reprinted

Thu Jun 30, 2011 3:01 pm

Quoting Klaus (Reply 7):
In order for such obviously false rumours to become really damaging, the currency would need to be in its final death throes, however, and it's not even remotely at such a point. It is stressed, but far from moribund and even flourishing.

That is not entirely true. A totally sound bank may fail if it is repeatedly questioned in a false way with misinformation. Same with a currency or a company. It's not the quality of the hits sadly, but the quanity specially in a time of financial dislocations. Enough of them, even if they are ''lächerlich'', may be enough to plant the seeds of doubt. Seen it time and time again in history. The self-fufilling profecy.

Which is why I think that any news organization should provide direct quote or sourcing, or it is better not to know at all.
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racko
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RE: Rumours About Deutschmark Being Reprinted

Thu Jun 30, 2011 3:08 pm

Quoting David L (Reply 11):
Call it a hunch but I suspect NDTV (formerly New Delhi Television) is not British and, according to the linked article, the poll they cite was carried out by the Frankfurter Allgemeine.

The Rumour about the DM is being spread by the "Daily Express", not by the FAZ.
 
oldeuropean
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RE: Rumours About Deutschmark Being Reprinted

Fri Jul 01, 2011 7:54 am

Hmm ... I smell British anti Euro bullshit.   


They better would clear up their own economical mess. (Which is by far more desperate)  
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PanHAM
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RE: Rumours About Deutschmark Being Reprinted

Fri Jul 01, 2011 9:09 am

The US$ stands at 1,4511 for one € right now and the Pound is weak against the € as well. Can't be too bad for the €. and the Deutschmark would certainly not be better for the German economy and the public. I have seen he ups and downs of the Deutschmark over 4 decades and compared to that the decade of the € was much better so far. There was a time in the 80s when the US$ rose against the DM so much that a grey market evolved where Germans bought Mercedes and BMW here for DM and exported the cars to the USA. They made good money but it was a bad deal for the US buyers since Mercedes USA did not honor the warranties and told them to ship the cars back to Germany for servicing.

Now, in a single market it makes eventually sense for small but strong economies like Denmark and Sweden to stay outside the €. The UK has missed the boat unfortunately. For the strongest economy and the largest exporter in that single market it would be conomical suicide (OK we did that already yesterday by quitting nuclear energy but that's another story). Traders do not lose on currency exchange anymore, payments within the SEPA single european payment area can transfer money for pennies. transactions cost both parties at least 24€ before. All this saves billions in expenses each year for consumers and businesses alike.

Turning the clock back would be most stupid unless we get to a point where staying in the € costs more than dropping out and finishing that currency for good.
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Klaus
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RE: Rumours About Deutschmark Being Reprinted

Fri Jul 01, 2011 10:12 am

Quoting deltaownsall (Reply 10):
It's rallied nicely against the dollar over the past 10 months (   ) but didn't the euro touch 1.6 a few years back?

Yes, it's not at its absolute peak, but still quite high.

Quoting Derico (Reply 14):
That is not entirely true. A totally sound bank may fail if it is repeatedly questioned in a false way with misinformation. Same with a currency or a company. It's not the quality of the hits sadly, but the quanity specially in a time of financial dislocations. Enough of them, even if they are ''lächerlich'', may be enough to plant the seeds of doubt. Seen it time and time again in history. The self-fufilling profecy.

That's what speculators hope, but under halfway normal circumstances there are enough players in the market who actually know the substantial situation and can distinguish it from speculative rumours.

Quoting Derico (Reply 14):
Which is why I think that any news organization should provide direct quote or sourcing, or it is better not to know at all.

Rumours can be valid news under certain circumstances, but they should indeed by treated with extreme caution.
 
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shamrock604
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RE: Rumours About Deutschmark Being Reprinted

Fri Jul 01, 2011 10:14 am

I cant see Germany even countenancing such a move. The Euro benefits Germany more than many other EU economies, even if many Germans long for the return of the Mark.

That said, it would be foolish to ignore that we have issues within the Euro area that are not being fully understood by many of the Euro area population. An overly simplistic narative of "bailout" politics has emerged, which I believe is a danger to the Union. We need to understand exactly what happened over the last few years and acknowledge that the banking sector's recklessness has brought us to this day. Vilifying certain countries will not cut it - because it was banks everywhere who funded it.

We have reached a crunch point and we in Euroland are going to have to make some hard decisions soon about whether we grow much closer in terms of economic and financial policy, because the current approach of papering over the cracks will only work for so long.
 
Klaus
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RE: Rumours About Deutschmark Being Reprinted

Fri Jul 01, 2011 10:27 am

Quoting shamrock604 (Reply 19):
Vilifying certain countries will not cut it - because it was banks everywhere who funded it.

The banking system has contributed greatly to the crisis with the recklessness and criminal activities in the derivative markets.

Severely lacking banking regulation has been one of the reasons why this could happen (catastrophically so in several countries), and most governments are still too timid to make the necessary decisions.

That said, presumably easy money also helped a lot in maintaining political complacency about national budget deficits almost everywhere, if to very different extents.

But I agree, vilification helps nobody. Urgent changes need to be made, and there are not many countries which wouldn't need a re-adjustment at the very least. (Germany needs further consolidation efforts as well.)
 
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shamrock604
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RE: Rumours About Deutschmark Being Reprinted

Fri Jul 01, 2011 11:44 am

Quoting Klaus (Reply 20):

It's painful as hell to make that adjustment.

Let me give you an example. Ireland used to have large budget surpluses. After the crisis, we had a 19 billion euro deficeit. We have now already made a 25 billion budget adjustment, so in theory, we should be back in surplus, right?

Sadly not - we're still in deficeit - and all going to prevent the banks from collapse.

Like it or not, we are a union now and banking knows no borders. We need to move beyond thinking of issues solely in national terms. All banks were culpable.
 
Klaus
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RE: Rumours About Deutschmark Being Reprinted

Fri Jul 01, 2011 5:53 pm

Quoting shamrock604 (Reply 21):
It's painful as hell to make that adjustment.

No doubt – it's a massive challenge for Ireland.

Quoting shamrock604 (Reply 21):
Like it or not, we are a union now and banking knows no borders. We need to move beyond thinking of issues solely in national terms. All banks were culpable.

I wouldn't go quite that far. Many banks (particularly those without an investment arm) have operated properly throughout. But very many have acted like pigs at a (presumably!) free buffet.
 
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shamrock604
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RE: Rumours About Deutschmark Being Reprinted

Fri Jul 01, 2011 8:35 pm

Quoting Klaus (Reply 22):

Im sorry Klaus, I worded that poorly. I meant that banks right across Europe were culpable, not that each and every one acted badly.

Yes, it's a big change, but we would be finished it now and back to normal if it were not for the damn bank debt.
 
Klaus
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RE: Rumours About Deutschmark Being Reprinted

Sat Jul 02, 2011 1:16 pm

Quoting shamrock604 (Reply 23):
Im sorry Klaus, I worded that poorly. I meant that banks right across Europe were culpable, not that each and every one acted badly.

No problem – looks like we're on the same page on that.

Quoting shamrock604 (Reply 23):
Yes, it's a big change, but we would be finished it now and back to normal if it were not for the damn bank debt.

I'm sure that Ireland will make it out of the slump again, among other things with european support.
 
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shamrock604
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RE: Rumours About Deutschmark Being Reprinted

Sun Jul 03, 2011 10:07 am

Quoting Klaus (Reply 24):
I'm sure that Ireland will make it out of the slump again, among other things with european support.

We are in a better position than most - for one, our exports are booming, the labour force is very flexible, costs are coming down - so a lot of good things are happening. But domestic demand is in the toilet, and the fears for the eurozone are really not helping that situation. People are scared - and are hoarding money rather than spending.

One thing we can agree on - the so called "Anglo American" economic model is dead. I notice our media now tends to talk very highly of the Germanic approach to the economy, and how we should more closely emulate it in future.
 
Klaus
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RE: Rumours About Deutschmark Being Reprinted

Sun Jul 03, 2011 4:49 pm

Quoting shamrock604 (Reply 25):
We are in a better position than most - for one, our exports are booming, the labour force is very flexible, costs are coming down - so a lot of good things are happening. But domestic demand is in the toilet, and the fears for the eurozone are really not helping that situation. People are scared - and are hoarding money rather than spending.

I'd be careful in that situation as well; But I'd expect that people will begin spending again when the economy is felt to be on the rise again (or at least stable enough).

Quoting shamrock604 (Reply 25):
One thing we can agree on - the so called "Anglo American" economic model is dead. I notice our media now tends to talk very highly of the Germanic approach to the economy, and how we should more closely emulate it in future.

It appears that actually working to actually produce actually useful things may not be such a stupid idea after all...!   
 
baroque
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RE: Rumours About Deutschmark Being Reprinted

Mon Jul 04, 2011 5:51 am

Quoting shamrock604 (Reply 25):
One thing we can agree on - the so called "Anglo American" economic model is dead. I notice our media now tends to talk very highly of the Germanic approach to the economy, and how we should more closely emulate it in future.
Quoting Klaus (Reply 26):
It appears that actually working to actually produce actually useful things may not be such a stupid idea after all...!

Fair points but one word of caution, while the Anglo American economic model might be dead, its death notices were not widely circulated and AFAIK, nobody was there the drive a stake into it to check on the death. So it might rise again, possibly not unlike Dracula during the dead of night!

You do not hear a lot these days about the benefits of the A A model for low unemployment, but a check on our local scene shows that the aficionados are "just resting". Maybe just like the Norwegian Blue, but maybe not!
 
PanHAM
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RE: Rumours About Deutschmark Being Reprinted

Mon Jul 04, 2011 6:08 am

.....or, as Mark Twain once said, "News about my death are greatly exaggerated".

The A A business model is not restricted to unlimited, unrestricted and unsupervised banking, there's much more to it. The German model works fine as long as the government keeps their hands off , unfortunalely that's exactly not what they are doing. And for those who think that there is a "third way" the answer is, NO, there simply is not.
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Klaus
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RE: Rumours About Deutschmark Being Reprinted

Mon Jul 04, 2011 6:18 am

Quoting Baroque (Reply 27):
Fair points but one word of caution, while the Anglo American economic model might be dead, its death notices were not widely circulated and AFAIK, nobody was there the drive a stake into it to check on the death. So it might rise again, possibly not unlike Dracula during the dead of night!

...and also similarly lusting for blood again...!   

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 28):
The German model works fine as long as the government keeps their hands off , unfortunalely that's exactly not what they are doing.

Actually, the german model has always been a market economy coupled with a functioning social system and judicious governmental regulation. And that is the combination that's been the basis for the success we're seeing.

It's currently lopsided in some regards and needs some re-calibrations, but none of the oversimplified extremes has ever worked sustainably. It's worth the effort to chart a course that takes care of more than just one single aspect of the economy, even if it's quite difficult to find the optimal adjustment.
 
PanHAM
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RE: Rumours About Deutschmark Being Reprinted

Mon Jul 04, 2011 7:17 am

Quoting Klaus (Reply 29):
Actually, the german model has always been a market economy coupled with a functioning social system and judicious governmental regulation. And that is the combination that's been the basis for the success we're seeing.

gee, I didn't know that. If you believe that the old Ehrhard model still works you are dreaming. The basis of the German success is the energy of hundreds of thousands small and medium companies who try their chances on the world markets and are usually quite successful with that. They are usually three steps ahead of the beaurocrat who is trying to stop them and that adds to the success. Not only that these companies export high quality goods to other markets, many of them also have manufacturing subsidies overseas or a cross Europe which is good for penetraing these markets but also spreading costs of their products between high cost Germany and lower cost overseas production.

What you call "judicious government regulation" is contradicting. As a matter of fact, the century old laws (BGB, HGB) are as good and efficient today as they were a century ago (which sheds a good light on the lawmakers then, today's lawmakers seem to be unable to come up with the same quality). But it is a judicióus regulation which everybody has to observe, the government as well as natural or judicial persons. The government does not stand above the law and any government regulations have to be in accordance with the law.

Not the politicis, the law has primacy overy everything and that is certainly also a contribution to our success.
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shamrock604
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RE: Rumours About Deutschmark Being Reprinted

Mon Jul 04, 2011 7:34 am

Quoting Klaus (Reply 26):
It appears that actually working to actually produce actually useful things may not be such a stupid idea after all...!  

Hehe...  

This is true. Thankfully, my country is not so bad at that either. I heard a very interesting comparison between Ireland and Greece last week. The value of Greek exports is EUR 15 Billion. Greece has almost 12 million inhabitants.

Ireland exports goods to the value of approx EUR 180 Billion. Ireland (republic) has just 4.6 million inhabitants.

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 28):
The A A business model is not restricted to unlimited, unrestricted and unsupervised banking, there's much more to it. The German model works fine as long as the government keeps their hands off , unfortunately that's exactly not what they are doing. And for those who think that there is a "third way" the answer is, NO, there simply is not.

You are correct, but when I stated the AA model is dead, I was referring more to the "debt" aspects of the model than many of the other aspects.

Quoting Baroque (Reply 27):
Fair points but one word of caution, while the Anglo American economic model might be dead, its death notices were not widely circulated and AFAIK, nobody was there the drive a stake into it to check on the death. So it might rise again, possibly not unlike Dracula during the dead of night!

Knowing Human nature, and our complete and total inability to learn from our mistakes, I can honestly say.... it's a near certainty!  
 
MD11Engineer
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RE: Rumours About Deutschmark Being Reprinted

Mon Jul 04, 2011 7:40 am

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 28):
The A A business model is not restricted to unlimited, unrestricted and unsupervised banking,

The popular idea of the Anglo-American model seems to have been how to make a lot of money fast without actually having to work for it. Just let the stock market shares or real estate do the working for you. You could as well gamble in a casino.

Jan
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PanHAM
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RE: Rumours About Deutschmark Being Reprinted

Mon Jul 04, 2011 10:09 am

Quoting shamrock604 (Reply 31):

You are correct, but when I stated the AA model is dead, I was referring more to the "debt" aspects of the model than many of the other aspects.

I understood well what you meant. The problem of Ireland was that the state created a play ground for banks from all over the world to do things there they could not do at home. The lack of clear rules and supervision and the participation of local Irish Banks lead to the situation.

Quoting MD11Engineer (Reply 32):
The popular idea of the Anglo-American model seems to have been how to make a lot of money fast without actually having to work for it. Just let the stock market shares or real estate do the working for you. You could as well gamble in a casino.

You would not believe how much work that is, Jan. These guys sometimes work 16 hours a day and longer and sleep with a handfull of phones and a computer on-line. Gambling in a casino is riskier because you cannot direct the ball in the direction you want. Besides, for every winner there is a loser on the other side. In simple words, it ain't that easy. And it needs a lot of skills.

OTH, the "social market economy" Ehrhard created was never really introduced in the way the creator meant it tobe, except may be in the few years he was Minister for the Economics and Chancellor. The idea was diluted latest in the 70s. and continues to be till today. Also, I do not make a distinction between the social market economy and that what is called the Anglo American economy. Both are profit oriented at the end of the day and in both it is understood that there is no other way but to make a buck in order to survive.

The real counterpart of the free western system is the state run commando economy, also called communism or socialism and because we had that next door in Germany and even our socialists had to agree that this does not work, they dreamed about a "third way". That third way is what I meant when i said that this does not work either.

Only market economy works, in all different shades, be that A A or true German Ludwig Ehrhard style social market economy. It works in all shades even in the US where "good" employers pay health insurance and pay for pension schemes. The nice thing about a free economy is that companies can decide that themselves. Except in Germany, the state imposes a lot of additional costs for health, welfare and pensions on the companies and so fare they have eebn able to sell these costs on the world market by turning out high class poroducts.,

We have to bear in mind that this is not God given and we have to work every day to maintain it that way. Unfortunately, last week, a reckless decision was made in Parliament which may be a game changer to the worse. I hope it will not turn out that way.
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