dxing
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Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Wed Sep 28, 2011 11:21 pm

Partly due to the Presidents, and the Europeans choice not to put boots on the ground to at least secure weapons storage facilities, up to 20,000 anti-aircraft missiles may be missing and unaccounted for in Libya.    Just pretend they don't exist Mr. President.

http://news.yahoo.com/free-20-000-an...ssiles-stolen-libya-190419158.html

A survey of weapon depots in Libya shows that up to 20,000 shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles are now missing, partly because President Barack Obama has refused to send troops to guard the weapons depots, according to a left-of-center advocate.

Despite the growing concern among officials in the U.S and Europe, he said, “you can still walk into any facility without anyone stopping you.”
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Wed Sep 28, 2011 11:35 pm

Aren't the same groups now bashing the president about not putting boots on the ground the same ones that didn't want the president to do anything in Libya at all? Can't have it both ways...

Edit: not accusing the OP or anyone, just asking...

[Edited 2011-09-28 16:38:29]
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Dreadnought
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Thu Sep 29, 2011 1:39 am

Quoting dxing (Thread starter):
Partly due to the Presidents, and the Europeans choice not to put boots on the ground to at least secure weapons storage facilities, up to 20,000 anti-aircraft missiles may be missing and unaccounted for in Libya. Just pretend they don't exist Mr. President.

As much of a pinhead Obama is, you can't really lay this at his feet. As we saw in Iraq, even he had put a dozen divisions on the ground, some of those weapons would have ended up in the wrong hands. It's the nature of that kind of conflict.

That said, now we are going to have to deal with the possibility of some of those missiles finding their way to the edge of some civilian airport. Fun...
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Okie
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Thu Sep 29, 2011 2:44 am

Quoting dxing (Thread starter):
Partly due to the Presidents, and the Europeans choice not to put boots on the ground to at least secure weapons storage facilities, up to 20,000 anti-aircraft missiles may be missing and unaccounted for in Libya. Just pretend they don't exist Mr. President.


First of all there were "boots on the ground".
Do you think we just flew attack aircraft over Libya at 3,000 plus feet above the ground and could determine which bunch of Libyan's to drop ordnance on and where.

Okie
 
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Thu Sep 29, 2011 5:24 am

I have a hard time believing they actually had 20-freaking-thousand of these things. I don't even thing the US has that many Patriot missiles. 2k? Maybe. 200? Very likely. But twenty-freaking-thousand, in Lybia? Call me naive but I'm not buying it.
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Thu Sep 29, 2011 6:57 am

Quoting Fly2HMO (Reply 4):
Patriot missiles.

I believe they are Stinger or a similar type missile



Wouldn't be out of the realm of possibilities if they are that small... probably makes them more dangerous in the hands of a terrorist (more portable/hidable)


But I agree, 20,000 of these

http://www.wired.com/images_blogs/dangerroom/2011/03/patriot_02.jpg

(Patriot missile) is kinda a lot
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TheCommodore
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Thu Sep 29, 2011 6:57 am

Quoting Fly2HMO (Reply 4):
Call me naive but I'm not buying it.

Well Im not sure either, but apparently your Secretary of State was. She called directly, to the new leaders, way back before this article was published, so that would make it some time early September for the army, to "secure" all the ousted regimes weapons and reserves.

Appears they didn't, or were to late.

Also, seems as though he (Daffie Duck) had perhaps more than just bullets and bombs etc...

Read below


http://news.yahoo.com/missing-weapon...-caches-raise-fears-210959855.html
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baroque
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Thu Sep 29, 2011 7:15 am

One neat idea would be to cut or at least curb arms sales. Wonder why that has not happened. Or indeed, sales of other nasties such as land mines and cluster bombs.

The fuss seems to be more about the possible use of the missiles (against us!) than the general danger resulting from more armaments being in circulation. I mean nobody is going to put landmines down streets in NY are they, so what if the Libyan desert has a few more to go with those from WWII.  Wow!
 
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Thu Sep 29, 2011 8:26 am

Quoting Baroque (Reply 7):
The fuss seems to be more about the possible use of the missiles (against us!)

Why do the US and NATO attack sovereign nations in first place, the US president does not even ask for Congress approval anymore before he launches these attacks.

This neo-colonialist behaviour is sick especially when there is so much bad going in the West, nations can't even deal with their own debt and are threatened of default/bankruptcy - not counting how many civilians are being killed.

Who they have put in power in lieu of Khadaffy is not even clear. We don't really know if these people are part of al Qaeda or Muslim Brotherhood or what else.

and then this is what these people tell you:

Libya's interim leadership has rejected the idea of deploying any kind of international military force, the UN envoy to the country has said.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14726292

NATO/the US have to accept the consequences for their actions.
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Thu Sep 29, 2011 12:04 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 7):
One neat idea would be to cut or at least curb arms sales. Wonder why that has not happened. Or indeed, sales of other nasties such as land mines and cluster bombs.

Ask the Russians. Ask China. Both those countries specialized in very cheap weapons for exports, like RPGs, AKs, and the Strela 2 (Russian version of the Stinger).
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baroque
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Thu Sep 29, 2011 12:06 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 9):
Quoting Baroque (Reply 7):
One neat idea would be to cut or at least curb arms sales. Wonder why that has not happened. Or indeed, sales of other nasties such as land mines and cluster bombs.

Ask the Russians. Ask China. Both those countries specialized in very cheap weapons for exports, like RPGs, AKs, and the Strela 2 (Russian version of the Stinger).

Which is no adequate reason to make it the competition that it is - no?
 
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Dreadnought
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Thu Sep 29, 2011 12:14 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 10):

Which is no adequate reason to make it the competition that it is - no?

Like I said, ask them. The Russians saw it as a means of destabilizing the west, and after the USSR fell apart, they just needed the money. For China, it's probably a mix of those same two reasons.
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baroque
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Thu Sep 29, 2011 12:22 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 11):
Like I said, ask them. The Russians saw it as a means of destabilizing the west, and after the USSR fell apart, they just needed the money. For China, it's probably a mix of those same two reasons.

If you look at the cost of the GWOT to western countries, where most of the arms being guarded against come from those sources, it starts to look like a good strategy from the Russian point of view - always assuming that you are correct. As it also keeps biting the Russians in Chechnya I rather doubt it is that intentional, but then again, apparently the US did not expect the blowback from Afghanistan Mark I. Or do you think the Chechnyans are being armed by the US? After all you did arm the Mujahideen first time around.
 
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Thu Sep 29, 2011 2:06 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 2):
As much of a pinhead Obama is, you can't really lay this at his feet. As we saw in Iraq, even he had put a dozen divisions on the ground, some of those weapons would have ended up in the wrong hands. It's the nature of that kind of conflict.

As the article states:

I was in Iraq in 2003 and the amount of weaponry floating around in Libya is much greater than the anything we saw in Iraq,“ said Bouckaert.

and one of the big reasons why was our swift victory over Hussiens forces and while we failed to secure museums and such, weapons depots were secured relatively quickly. No one has really been in charge in Libya for quite some time now relatively speaking and this is the result of that. If we are going to back one side or the other with military power, we owe it to ourselves to protect ourselves from this kind of situation.

Quoting okie (Reply 3):
First of all there were "boots on the ground".

Really, care to share the link that backs that up? Because all I can find is:

http://www.businessinsider.com/penta...s-troops-on-ground-in-libya-2011-9

Pentagon spokesman Capt. John Kirby told the news network that four unidentified service members are on the ground and working under the State Department to assist in the rebuilding of the American embassy there.

and I don't think 4 would have been enough.

Quoting okie (Reply 3):
Do you think we just flew attack aircraft over Libya at 3,000 plus feet above the ground and could determine which bunch of Libyan's to drop ordnance on and where.

No, as the above link also states:

American officials have previously acknowledged the presence of some CIA agents on the ground in Libya who were reportedly helping coordinate NATO air strikes.

which is exactly what we did in Afghanistan prior to inserting Airborne Rangers and Spec Ops troops on the ground.

Quoting Fly2HMO (Reply 4):
I have a hard time believing they actually had 20-freaking-thousand of these things.

Russian arms are notoriously cheap and when you are pumping oil, all is possible.

Quoting Baroque (Reply 7):
One neat idea would be to cut or at least curb arms sales.

Yes it would be. I don't think the United States has sold arms to Libya for quite some time, do you?
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Thu Sep 29, 2011 3:01 pm

This is the kind of stuff that happens when some people see the populist uprisings in the middle east, and anywhere else, as people just wanting their freedom. While some people were proclaiming how wonderful it was to get rid of the Libyan dictator the bad guys were looting the armories. Whether it was terrorists, criminals, or just some standard looters who stole stuff to hold on to or resell, you have a lot of potential problems.

I have no doubt that there was 20,000 shoulder fired missiles there. I was hearing a figure around 30,000 a couple of months ago. 20,000 really isn't that big of a number, considering the number that were probably made. I am amazed at the WWII surplus weapons that are have been put on the market in the last ten years, particularly the ones from the former USSR.

I know there were weapons stolen from the East German government when it collapsed. I was recently offered a few, but I didn't want to try to get them back into the USA. I didn't want to risk losing my FFL over something like that. However it was tempting.... Fortunately when the East German state fell apart a stable and free government took over, but in a place like Libya you never know what you will get.
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baroque
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Thu Sep 29, 2011 3:15 pm

Quoting dxing (Reply 13):
As the article states:

I was in Iraq in 2003 and the amount of weaponry floating around in Libya is much greater than the anything we saw in Iraq,“ said Bouckaert.

and one of the big reasons why was our swift victory over Hussiens forces and while we failed to secure museums and such, weapons depots were secured relatively quickly. No one has really been in charge in Libya for quite some time now relatively speaking and this is the result of that. If we are going to back one side or the other with military power, we owe it to ourselves to protect ourselves from this kind of situation.

Really??? That is indeed shocking cos here is what the Pentagon thought about Iraq.

According to the Pentagon, 250,000 short tons (230,000 t) (of 650,000 short tons (590,000 t) total) of ordnance was looted, providing a significant source of ammunition for the Iraqi insurgency.

Wiki.

Luckily there will not be an insurgency in Libya I don't suppose.
 
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Thu Sep 29, 2011 3:39 pm

Quoting falstaff (Reply 14):
While some people were proclaiming how wonderful it was to get rid of the Libyan dictator the bad guys were looting the armories.

I am not sure (and I mean that literally) whether you are merely pointing out the hazards in any popular uprising, be it the in Libya, the Philippines or going back a few centuries the 13 colonies. But if not, are you suggesting that the Libyans should merely have put up with the dictator?

Yes, in any revolutionary period there are risks that undesirable elements will seek to profit from the general instability. It was ever so. But democracy would never have come about in the western world without the real struggles that took place, struggles that were far from peaceful and far from pure. Does that mean that people should simply put up with their lot for fear that someone in another country might be frightened by the outcome?

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 8):
We don't really know if these people are part of al Qaeda or Muslim Brotherhood or what else.

I am not sure why the NTC's statement that the UN need not station troops should be viewed with suspicion. So far many of the prominent people involved have indicated that they are neither one nor the other. Indeed, some are actually former Gaddafi staffers. The fact that they survived this long would suggest that they are not al Qaeda. Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose, maybe, although I hope (an insipid word, I admit) that things will improve.

Madame, the son of a close personal friend of mine has died in this conflict and I really pray that I am wrong, but given the choice between living under a dictatorship or aspiring for freedom, despite the risks, what choice is there? Continue as you were and if you step out of line you are tortured, imprisoned, shot? Or at least try for freedom? Nothing in life is guaranteed except failure if you do not at least try.
 
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Thu Sep 29, 2011 4:45 pm

Quoting Fly2HMO (Reply 4):
I have a hard time believing they actually had 20-freaking-thousand of these things.

Completely believable, I wouldn't be surprised if they had more.

Quoting Baroque (Reply 7):
The fuss seems to be more about the possible use of the missiles (against us!) than the general danger resulting from more armaments being in circulation.

Shortly following the fall of the Soviet Union the former Soviet Republics had literally armories full of weaponry dating back to World War 1. The Soviets simply never threw a gun away in order to arm militias when the evil western powers attacked. These republics not having a lot of money, many of the semi automatic and bolt-action rifles in those armories were sold and imported to the US and other countries. I even own a few.

Had you or I walked around those same armories I'm sure there would have been mines, mortars, RPGs, anti-aircraft missiles by the thousands if not tens or hundreds of thousands. Although I'm sure some of them made it into the hands of people we don't want to have them, I think we're lucky they didn't get looted like the Libyan armories did.

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 9):
Ask the Russians. Ask China. Both those countries specialized in very cheap weapons for exports, like RPGs, AKs, and the Strela 2 (Russian version of the Stinger).

There's a reason the most widely used weapon in the world is the AK 47 and can be bought in Africa for $30.
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Thu Sep 29, 2011 5:07 pm

Quoting canoecarrier (Reply 17):
There's a reason the most widely used weapon in the world is the AK 47 and can be bought in Africa for $30.

Hell, they use them as childrens' presents in some places:

http://www.independent.ie/world-news...-best-somali-students-2882643.html

How well do you know the Koran? Hand grenades and AK-47s for best Somali students
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Quokka
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Thu Sep 29, 2011 5:45 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 18):
How well do you know the Koran?

How well do you know the bible?

There are dozens of passages in the Bible where God (or whoever) incites his followers of the day to take up arms to smite various enemies. Those enemies were not always people who weren't of the original chosen few, but sometimes involved those who were but fell out with one or another faction. Curiously enough, in some instances, the people so incited lost the battle despite the God-given assuraces. As they say: God moves in mysterious ways.

As the world knows, the most violent religious hatred is often displayed by those who profess to be of the same faith. Europe was rent by religious disputes for several centuries and that was over and beyond the Crusaders versus Islam. In the Muslim world the same occurred. Think Catholic versus Protestant, Shia versus Sunni, etc, etc....

Today, in the West we like to pretend that we are more civilised because we no longer use religion as a justification to kill people. We still kill people but we are proud that we don't pretend to be religiously motivated - we find other justifications. Full marks to the west: we kill without discrimination. That proves that we are better! There should be no discrimination in killing. Everybody should be equally entitled to kill or be killed regardless of religion. How the world has progressed.
 
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Thu Sep 29, 2011 6:41 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 15):
Really??? That is indeed shocking cos here is what the Pentagon thought about Iraq.
http://articles.sfgate.com/2004-10-2..._al-qaqaa-weapons-depot-explosives

Exactly when and how the powerful explosives, known as HMX, RDX and PETN, disappeared from the depot and who might have them now has become an issue in the final days of the presidential campaign, as Democratic candidate John Kerry highlighted their disappearance as another sign that President Bush bungled the war in Iraq.

Kind of hard to shoot down an aircraft with a block of explosive versus a strella missle wouldn't you think?

Quoting Baroque (Reply 15):
Luckily there will not be an insurgency in Libya I don't suppose.

The insurgency in Iraq probably helped use up a lot of that missing explosive. Unless an air war breaks out in Libya those missles are going to be sold on the black market. Much worse situation.
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Thu Sep 29, 2011 6:45 pm

Quoting Quokka (Reply 19):
There are dozens of passages in the Bible where God (or whoever) incites his followers of the day to take up arms to smite various enemies.

Find me one Church group or Sunday school that awards automatic weapons and high explosives to children, or teaches them that their highest ambition should be to die while taking as many non-Christians with him as he can.
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Newark727
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Thu Sep 29, 2011 6:56 pm

Quoting dxing (Reply 20):

The insurgency in Iraq probably helped use up a lot of that missing explosive. Unless an air war breaks out in Libya those missles are going to be sold on the black market. Much worse situation.

I beg to differ, given the thousands of Iraqis that the insurgency has killed. Unless I'm completely misunderstanding you.
 
GDB
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Thu Sep 29, 2011 7:01 pm

Did Iran get them?

http://www.independent.ie/world-news...ddafi-revolt-in-libya-2885626.html

However, don't think that Libyan SAM's getting into the wrong hands is anything new, Gaddafi while in power wasn't shy about doling them out to, well anyone really.
In the 1980's the IRA got some, though they were never able to employ them usefully, the primary targets, British forces aircraft and helicopters had countermeasures fitted against the SAM-7's.

In fact, terrorist groups tried to get SAM-7's into use against airliners as far back as the 70's, (the Army were deployed around LHR from intel received from a possible Palestine centered threat as far back as 1974).

Then there was the gifting of the rather more effective Stingers to Afghans from 1986, some of whom would morph into Islamist terrorists, but I guess the OP would prefer that was forgotten given who was President at the time.

Would troops on the ground prevent this - if it has happened?
Well a truly massive store of military grade explosives was looted from a facility in Iraq in 2003, right under the noses of US troops (who were anyway under orders to keep themselves to themselves, despite clear warnings about this, including from them to their 'superiors' in Washington). These explosives WERE used by the insurgents, killing and maiming many thousands, in fact for the insurgents they were game changers.
As well as just about all other Iraq military stores (likely also including SAM's) from the suddenly disbanded institutions, again, given who was President for that screw up I doubt the OP is too happy to be reminded of that either.

Back to Libya, some reports, (not the ones out to make some juvenile US domestic political point), reckon that these weapons may have gone in the early stages of the revolt. Before even NATO involvement.

Over 40 years, Gaddafi turned his country into a vast quartermasters store, way more than his forces could ever use in all eternity.
Any serious uprising, supported by outside forces or not, always had the danger of missing weapons.
 
Quokka
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Thu Sep 29, 2011 7:12 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 21):

As I have indicated in my post, in the West we have chosen to ignore those parts of the BIble that don't suit our current agenda. Now, it may be the case that you choose to ignore large parts of the Bible and that is your right and I respect your right to turn the Bible into a brand of Emmental.

I will ignore the obvious fact that the right of possesion of arms has been a constant theme in many threads on A.net. But I would equally challenge you to quote from the Quran where anybody is invited to do the things that you list. There may be plenty of idiots claiming the obligation to do these things but you may find it harder to find a passasge that explicitly states what you suggest.

Throughout history there have been bigots who have advanced particular views and claimed a God to support those views. That does not prove that the views themselves are correct. It may be that some so-called advocates of Islam argue that it is acceptable to use violence, but so do those who profess no religion at all, including the US and Australia where a religious test is prohibited by law. That is the bit that you have missed from my post: in the West we no longer pretend a religious justifiaction for killing people.We simply kill because it is expedient.
 
mffoda
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Thu Sep 29, 2011 11:46 pm

Quoting dxing (Thread starter):
Partly due to the Presidents, and the Europeans choice not to put boots on the ground to at least secure weapons storage facilities, up to 20,000 anti-aircraft missiles may be missing and unaccounted for in Libya.    Just pretend they don't exist Mr. President.
Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 5):
I believe they are Stinger or a similar type missile

20,000 is a very large number when dealing with this type weapons system... And, there is a shelf life associated with each specific system. For example: There is almost No threat from the 80,000 US produced redeye manpads. Which most would believe to be superior to their counterpart (SA-7) of that period? In other words no threat for redeyes...

The fact or Not? that Libya attained 20,000 systems over the course of several decades is not really news? The real issue is weather they are operational? My guess is that at best... the numbers would be very low (Anyone know how many systems were received in the past 4-5 years?).

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 8):
Why do the US and NATO attack sovereign nations in first place, the US president does not even ask for Congress approval anymore before he launches these attacks.

Maybe because those Sovereign nations participated or provided material support in a attack on another Sovereign nation? Please feel free to give examples...

As far as the US Congress is concerned... Should the US President wait for Congress after say? The US Capital has been Nuked? Anyway, checkout the " War Powers Act" for more info on the US Presidents powers.

Rgrds,
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canoecarrier
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Fri Sep 30, 2011 1:18 am

Quoting mffoda (Reply 25):

20,000 is a very large number when dealing with this type weapons system... And, there is a shelf life associated with each specific system.

That has to do with battery life to run the missile guidance system right? For the same reason we weren't all that worried about Stingers in Afghanistan when we went there?

As far as the boots on the ground part of this thread, I think we still had no business being involved in what was effectively a civil war. NATO was dropping bombs all over the country, if they wanted to they could have dropped a few JDAMs on the armories very early in this whole endeavor.
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mffoda
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Fri Sep 30, 2011 2:27 am

Quoting canoecarrier (Reply 26):
That has to do with battery life to run the missile guidance system right? For the same reason we weren't all that worried about Stingers in Afghanistan when we went there?

Yes, to a certain extent? But it is a bit more complex... even the newer versions of said weapons have issues with their proprietary power systems (they don't use AA or D cell batteries).  

But that is not the real issue... Much of the sensor, electronics and cooling components require specialized storage and routine maintenance that is often not conducted by said countries...

?? Have you ever stored last years 4th of July fireworks and noticed a difference in this years performance? Simple analogy I know... But it carries weight when comparing this type of regime.

Quoting canoecarrier (Reply 26):
As far as the boots on the ground part of this thread, I think we still had no business being involved in what was effectively a civil war. NATO was dropping bombs all over the country, if they wanted to they could have dropped a few JDAMs on the armories very early in this whole endeavor.
" if they wanted to they could have dropped a few JDAMs on the armories very early in this whole endeavor."

That's kind of how it went down initially...  
harder than woodpecker lips...
 
canoecarrier
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Fri Sep 30, 2011 3:14 am

Quoting mffoda (Reply 27):
Yes, to a certain extent? But it is a bit more complex... even the newer versions of said weapons have issues with their proprietary power systems (they don't use AA or D cell batteries).

I'd heard that about them many years ago. Basically, it's not like you can go to your local Tora Bora Radio Shack and pick up the batteries that run the guidance systems.

Quoting mffoda (Reply 27):
But that is not the real issue... Much of the sensor, electronics and cooling components require specialized storage and routine maintenance that is often not conducted by said countries...

What?! They aren't like the AK? You mean you can't run over a precision guided, portable launched anti-aircraft missile system with a tank after leaving it effectively in a dusty barn for 10 years and expect to hit a Gen 4 fighter-bomber?

Quoting mffoda (Reply 27):
That's kind of how it went down initially...

Apparently so  
The beatings will continue until morale improves
 
baroque
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Fri Sep 30, 2011 7:06 am

Quoting mffoda (Reply 25):
The fact or Not? that Libya attained 20,000 systems over the course of several decades is not really news? The real issue is weather they are operational? My guess is that at best... the numbers would be very low

Has to be a most likely scenario. Also you would assume if they were any use, before NATO appeared the rebs would have acquired some to deter Gadaffi's planes and that Gadaffi's folk would have fired a few of any usable ones in hope at said NATO planes even if they knew they were out of range.

Quoting canoecarrier (Reply 26):
As far as the boots on the ground part of this thread, I think we still had no business being involved in what was effectively a civil war.

Libya might indeed indicate that the west has learned that taking part in a civil war, at least on the ground is not all that good a strategy.

Quoting Newark727 (Reply 22):
Quoting dxing (Reply 20):

The insurgency in Iraq probably helped use up a lot of that missing explosive. Unless an air war breaks out in Libya those missles are going to be sold on the black market. Much worse situation.

I beg to differ, given the thousands of Iraqis that the insurgency has killed. Unless I'm completely misunderstanding you.

Not only hundreds of thousands of Iraqis but quite a few of the occupation forces. Lesson, do not be an occupation force.

Then again, Newark, apparently it is like the "four legs good, two legs bad" from Animal Farm so weapons looted from Iraq are just part of S Happens, whereas weapons looted from Libya are a cause for enormous alarm and despondency.
  
And we also have to disregard the observation from GDB that the IRA had access to similar materials from Libya and while they caused concern, even pre 2001 there were sufficient counter measures taken to avoid any problems.

Note: wonder if with their degraded batteries and shot cooling systems if they are now missiles, missles, missals, or just Papal bull.
 
dxing
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Fri Sep 30, 2011 4:13 pm

Quoting Newark727 (Reply 22):
I beg to differ, given the thousands of Iraqis that the insurgency has killed. Unless I'm completely misunderstanding you.

Which happened during a war and is to be expected to happen during a war. The point being that the explosives were most likely to a great extent used up. Quite different than 20k anti-air missiles making their way unencumbered onto the weapons black market and then from there who knows where.

Quoting Baroque (Reply 29):
Not only hundreds of thousands of Iraqis but quite a few of the occupation forces. Lesson, do not be an occupation force.

Yes, just sit back and chant, "they won't come after me, they won't come after me".   

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Lufthansa411
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Fri Sep 30, 2011 4:18 pm

The nerd in me has to point out the following:

UP TO 20,000. It does not say that 20,000 Antiaircraft missiles have been confirmed stolen, just that it is possible that 20,000 have been stolen. "Up to" makes a huge difference- it means it could be 1, or it could be 20,000. No one is certain. Until things settle down within the country no one will have a reliable estimate.

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 21):
Find me one Church group or Sunday school that awards automatic weapons and high explosives to children, or teaches them that their highest ambition should be to die while taking as many non-Christians with him as he can.

Well to be fair, if gun laws in the US didn't restrict sales to children I am sure we would see many more guns being awarded as prizes. But that is for a different thread.  
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GDB
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Fri Sep 30, 2011 5:24 pm

Quoting canoecarrier (Reply 26):
Quoting canoecarrier (Reply 26):
As far as the boots on the ground part of this thread, I think we still had no business being involved in what was effectively a civil war. NATO was dropping bombs all over the country, if they wanted to they could have dropped a few JDAMs on the armories very early in this whole endeavor.

Major Libyan state arms stores were targets, including until very recently.
I note thtn from the start, many rebels were armed with FN rifles rather than the usual AK's, these had been supplied to Libya prior to the Mad Colonel ever taking power.
This gives an indication of just how much 'stuff' was in country.

Quoting Baroque (Reply 29):
And we also have to disregard the observation from GDB that the IRA had access to similar materials from Libya and while they caused concern, even pre 2001 there were sufficient counter measures taken to avoid any problems.

Well the seizing of the last of ships the packed with arms (we are talking tons here) for the IRA blew open the presence of SAM's, presumably interrogation of the crew helped.
So yes, countermeasures did nullify the SA-7 threat, which were fitted in a crash program in the late 1980's, not only to NI deployed choppers but also to transports from C-130's, VC-10's through to BAe-146/125 VIP types.
However, the IRA did find it hard to deploy what they had prior to this, they had perhaps a year or so prior to the SAM's presence becoming clear.

IF there are up to 20,000, I'd suggest a high proportion are old SA-7's, not to be complacent but that is the most likely, it is, after all, the 'AK-47' of portable SAM's. Note that unlicensed Chinese copies of the SA-7 were used in an attack on a civil B-757 in Kenya in 2002, luckily without success.
The world is awash with the things.
(Wonder if the hit on the A300F over Iraq in 2003 was from a SAM from Iraqi army stores?)

Moving to politics, I am no fan of David Cameron much less his party, however I do think he was right on Libya.
A victorious but now totally isolated Gaddafi would soon be up to his old tricks again, had NATO allowed the slaughter.
Indeed, it would have emboldened him.
In real life, neat, perfect ending options are for the birds, the world does not roll that way.

I just find an apparent hypocrisy when, with some in the US at least, uber-hawks suddenly become doves with a Presidential change.
There has been limited boots on the ground, Special Forces training and mentoring, UK, French, even Qatari, maybe US though seemingly unconfirmed in their case.

The same voices also have long said 'Europe should take more of a burden', after the initial take down of major strategic targets in Libya (neither the UK or France has spare Ballistic Missile subs now loaded with stacks of Tomahawks, though the RN fired some from it's SSN's), that is in fact what the US Administration effectively has done, but no, somehow that's wrong all of a sudden too.
After all plenty of European nations have forces in Afghanistan, quite substantially and very substantially in the case of France and the UK respectively, with the blood price to prove it.
What do we mean when we say 'Alliance?'
 
dxing
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Fri Sep 30, 2011 5:52 pm

Quoting GDB (Reply 32):
I just find an apparent hypocrisy when, with some in the US at least, uber-hawks suddenly become doves with a Presidential change.
There has been limited boots on the ground, Special Forces training and mentoring, UK, French, even Qatari, maybe US though seemingly unconfirmed in their case.


I find it hypocritical of a President to run on a platform of "we didn't belong there and have no business using our military for regime change" and then employing that military to ostensibly save some citizens of another country from being wiped out while they are in rebellion, and calling for the legitimate (albeit horrendous) leader to leave or face being forced out with the help of our air power. Meanwhile a couple of countries over hundreds of civilians are being slaughtered and it is documented, yet not a peep about that. I don't think asking for a little consistency is a bad thing do you? If I were a cynical sort I could suggest this regime change had more to do with oil for Europe than Iraq ever did for the United States.


In addition as listed above a grand total of 4 U.S. troops are known on the ground in Libya with the CIA helping the rebels call in air strikes.

We helped change a regime and failed at the same aspect as we did in Iraq, managing the transition. The result is a huge bunch of anti-air missiles on the loose and unaccounted for.
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mffoda
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Fri Sep 30, 2011 5:57 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 29):
Quoting canoecarrier (Reply 26):
As far as the boots on the ground part of this thread, I think we still had no business being involved in what was effectively a civil war.

Libya might indeed indicate that the west has learned that taking part in a civil war, at least on the ground is not all that good a strategy.

For those of you who are interested? There is a good piece by RUSI on some lessons learned in Libya.

http://www.rusi.org/downloads/assets/RUSIInterimLibyaReport.pdf
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baroque
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Fri Sep 30, 2011 6:26 pm

Quoting mffoda (Reply 34):
For those of you who are interested? There is a good piece by RUSI on some lessons learned in Libya.

http://www.rusi.org/downloads/assets...t.pdf

Interesting article, thanks for the link. I suppose they could not resist calling S and C accidental heroes. Bit I do not like is they have a "Conclusion". Might have to wait a bit for that I think.

Does tend to show what can be achieved without an occupation. Finally the air war theory gets a win - maybe! Douhet would be happy.
 
GDB
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Fri Sep 30, 2011 8:24 pm

mffoda, good link, very interesting.
(For those who may not know, the RUSI is a defence/security think tank/forum/library dating back 180 years, it is not politically partisan nor linked to any political party).

Why has a question mark not yet been added to the title of this thread, we are not after all dealing in proven certainties here, they look like this......?
(Or is that a difference of political culture?)

[Edited 2011-09-30 13:27:20]
 
mffoda
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Fri Sep 30, 2011 9:44 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 35):
Interesting article, thanks for the link.
Quoting GDB (Reply 36):
mffoda, good link, very interesting.

You're welcome, I have been reading them years... I always find them to be fairly balanced.  
harder than woodpecker lips...
 
Newark727
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Sat Oct 01, 2011 3:56 am

Quoting dxing (Reply 30):

Which happened during a war and is to be expected to happen during a war. The point being that the explosives were most likely to a great extent used up. Quite different than 20k anti-air missiles making their way unencumbered onto the weapons black market and then from there who knows where.

I'm still not following you. Unless you're saying Libya isn't a war? At any rate the fact that we know where the Iraqi explosives are now is scarcely help or justification for anything, given that we "found out" only post-detonation.
 
baroque
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Sat Oct 01, 2011 12:02 pm

Quoting Newark727 (Reply 38):
At any rate the fact that we know where the Iraqi explosives are now is scarcely help or justification for anything, given that we "found out" only post-detonation.

Nice way to phrase it! Closer to the time of discovery it would have been S**T!.
 
dxing
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Sat Oct 01, 2011 12:42 pm

Quoting Newark727 (Reply 38):
I'm still not following you.

Then I have no idea of what point you are trying to make. The point was raised that arms had gone missing during the invasion of Iraq, the article I linked to on that subject referenced the majority of it being explosives like semtex. It could be said that the insurgents then used most of that material in the use of IED's and such and block explosive is hard to get on an airplane these days, unlike using a strella missile. Therefore my point is and remains on this point that the strella's pose a far greater threat to people outside of the conflict than do the missing explosives in Iraq. I don't know how much more clear I can make it.
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baroque
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Sat Oct 01, 2011 1:04 pm

Quoting Newark727 (Reply 38):
I'm still not following you. Unless you're saying Libya isn't a war? At any rate the fact that we know where the Iraqi explosives are now is scarcely help or justification for anything, given that we "found out" only post-detonation.

Aside from Iraq was good and Libya was bad, one reason could be he is using a selective reference rather than this one:

www.gao.gov/products/GAO-07-444

Operation Iraqi Freedom: DOD Should Apply Lessons Learned Concerning the Need for Security over Conventional Munitions Storage Sites to Future Operations Planning
GAO-07-444 March 22, 2007
Highlights Page (PDF) Full Report (PDF, 39 pages) Accessible Text Recommendations (HTML)

Summary

Following the invasion of Iraq in March 2003--known as Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF)--concerns were raised about how the Department of Defense (DOD) secured Iraqi conventional munitions storage sites during and after major combat operations. Because of the broad interest in this issue, GAO conducted this work under the Comptroller General's authority to conduct evaluations. This report examines (1) the security provided by U.S. forces over Iraqi conventional munitions storage sites and (2) DOD actions to mitigate risks associated with an adversary's conventional munitions storage sites for future operations on the basis of OIF lessons learned. To address these objectives, GAO reviewed OIF war plans, joint doctrine and policy, and intelligence reports, and interviewed senior-level DOD officials.

The overwhelming size and number of conventional munitions storage sites in Iraq, combined with certain prewar planning assumptions that proved to be invalid, resulted in U.S. forces not adequately securing these sites and widespread looting, according to field unit, lessons learned, and intelligence reports. Pre-OIF estimates of Iraq's conventional munitions varied significantly, with the higher estimate being five times greater than the lower estimate. Conventional munitions storage sites were looted after major combat operations and some remained vulnerable as of October 2006. According to lessons learned reports and senior-level DOD officials, the widespread looting occurred because DOD had insufficient troop levels to secure conventional munitions storage sites due to several OIF planning priorities and assumptions. DOD's OIF planning priorities included quickly taking Baghdad on a surprise basis rather than using an overwhelming force. The plan also assumed that the regular Iraqi army units would "capitulate and provide internal security." GAO analysis showed that the war plan did not document risk mitigation strategies--such as branch plans as recommended by joint planning doctrine--in case assumptions were proven wrong. Not securing these conventional munitions storage sites has been costly, as government reports indicated that looted munitions are being used to make Improvised Explosive Devices (IED) that have killed or maimed many people, and will likely continue to support terrorist attacks in the region. As of October 2006, the Multi-National Coalition-Iraq stated that some remote sites have not been revisited to verify if they pose any residual risk nor have they been physically secured. However, DOD does not appear to have conducted a theaterwide survey and assessment of the current risk unsecured conventional munitions represent to U.S. forces and others. DOD has taken many actions in response to OIF lessons learned, such as setting up the Joint IED Defeat Organization to develop a more strategic approach to countering IEDs, which typically are made using looted munitions. However, our review of DOD doctrine, policy, guidance, and procedures used to guide operational planning and execution found little evidence of guidance on the security of conventional munitions storage sites. DOD's actions generally have emphasized countering the use of IEDs by resistance groups during post-hostility operations. GAO concludes that U.S. forces will face increased risk from this emerging asymmetric threat when an adversary uses unconventional means to counter U.S. military strengths. For example, one potential adversary is also estimated to have a significant amount of munitions that would require significant manpower to secure or destroy. GAO also concludes that this situation shows both that Iraqi stockpiles of munitions may not be an anomaly and that information on the amount and location of an adversary's munitions can represent a strategic planning consideration for future operations. However, without joint guidance, DOD cannot ensure that OIF lessons learned about the security of an adversary's conventional munitions storage sites will be integrated into future operations planning and execution.


I assume that DOD had not entirely forgotten this report when the Libyan problems arrived on their collective desks.

As GDB writes, some efforts had been made to destroy depots and rebels had armed themselves from others. How much remained - probably we await another GAO report!
 
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Mortyman
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Sat Oct 01, 2011 1:31 pm

Quoting dxing (Reply 13):
Really, care to share the link that backs that up?

http://www.rusi.org/downloads/assets/RUSIInterimLibyaReport.pdf
 
MD11Engineer
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Sat Oct 01, 2011 1:35 pm

In many dictatorships arms and ammunition are distributed all over the country and stored in local militia headquaters, public buildings, police stations, local government party offices and secret police offices. Often there also exists secret arms caches in civilian buildings.
This is done due to two reasons:
a) have a supply of weapons ready to arm the loyal militias / secret police in case of a rebellion, and
b) to have decentralised depots in case of a foreign invasion.

When East Germany´s communist government toppled in 1989, the officers of the Stasi secret police often abandoned their posts and left their armouries unguarded. It was quite a surprise where actually weapons were stored, e.g. in basements of schools or communist party headquarters. I´m quite sure that quite a few AK-47s, ammo and other weapons disappeared during these few weeks until the armouries could be secured.
I´m also quite sure that in Germany, with our strict gun laws, we still have several hundredthousand illegal guns and weapons, including machine guns, RPGs or grenades in private hands. Most of the owners though have them probably hidden "just in case there is a situation when you´ll need one" and will never use them.

Jan
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dxing
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Sat Oct 01, 2011 1:53 pm

Quoting Mortyman (Reply 42):

The report does not detail how western powers put boots on to secure all the weapons facilities. It makes reference to one story of how the SAS may be used to secure a suspected former mustard gas site.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...addafis-stores-of-mustard-gas.html

The rest, as detailed in the report, is innuendo from open sources.
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Centre
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Sat Oct 01, 2011 1:59 pm

I have one question:
The NATO has flown hundreds of sorties over Libya, and we haven't heard of one single case of missiles being fired at any NATO airplane.
Qaddafi forces certainly fought back NATO raids, but with anti-aircraft guns.
They are at war with NATO, and they are firing back....

So, where are those 20-30K missiles when needed?
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Newark727
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Sat Oct 01, 2011 2:07 pm

Quoting dxing (Reply 40):
Then I have no idea of what point you are trying to make. The point was raised that arms had gone missing during the invasion of Iraq, the article I linked to on that subject referenced the majority of it being explosives like semtex. It could be said that the insurgents then used most of that material in the use of IED's and such and block explosive is hard to get on an airplane these days, unlike using a strella missile. Therefore my point is and remains on this point that the strella's pose a far greater threat to people outside of the conflict than do the missing explosives in Iraq. I don't know how much more clear I can make it.

Okay, I think I get you now, it's an issue of "outside of the conflict." I still don't really agree with you, but at least I see where you're coming from now, sorry for being obtuse.
 
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Mortyman
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Sat Oct 01, 2011 2:49 pm

Quoting dxing (Reply 44):
The report does not detail how western powers put boots on to secure all the weapons facilities. It makes reference to one story of how the SAS may be used to secure a suspected former mustard gas site.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...addafis-stores-of-mustard-gas.html

The rest, as detailed in the report, is innuendo from open sources.

You quoted a different article than the one I posted ...
 
dxing
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Sat Oct 01, 2011 6:15 pm

Quoting Mortyman (Reply 47):

You quoted a different article than the one I posted ...

I used a source that your link used to validate their report. I still don't see any reference to actual, verified, boots on the ground other than what I have already described.
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baroque
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RE: Up To 20,000 Antiaircraft Missiles Stolen In Libya

Sun Oct 02, 2011 9:57 am

Quoting Newark727 (Reply 46):
Quoting dxing (Reply 40):
Then I have no idea of what point you are trying to make. The point was raised that arms had gone missing during the invasion of Iraq, the article I linked to on that subject referenced the majority of it being explosives like semtex. It could be said that the insurgents then used most of that material in the use of IED's and such and block explosive is hard to get on an airplane these days, unlike using a strella missile. Therefore my point is and remains on this point that the strella's pose a far greater threat to people outside of the conflict than do the missing explosives in Iraq. I don't know how much more clear I can make it.

Okay, I think I get you now, it's an issue of "outside of the conflict." I still don't really agree with you, but at least I see where you're coming from now, sorry for being obtuse.

I don't think you were obtuse at all. The majority of the looted material in Iraq was explosives, but ground fire from ballistic and guided weapons was a problem for the US there and the weapons that were used were looted.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/feb/05/iraq.topstories3

The US has had difficulty with attacks on its helicopters ever since Apache attack aircraft were deployed over Baghdad during the invasion in 2003, when they were found to be surprisingly vulnerable to ground fire. At the end of 2003 they began flying low and fast in order to avoid missiles launched from the ground, but this leaves them exposed to simple gunfire.

Insurgents use rocket-propelled grenades and anti-aircraft missiles in Iraq, making high flying impossible.

More than 50 helicopters have crashed since the invasion, about half under insurgent attack. Until the past two weeks it was felt that the flying tactics and use of varying routes had reduced the risk.


The Libyan ones may be of less concern because air activity has been more concentrated on fast jets and provided the west does not now pick a fight with the rebels, presumably they will not use them. I imagine the US will be pretty much on top of the second hand market in surface to air missiles.

BTW having tonnes of high explosives on the second hand market that can easily be loaded into a car or truck, can be just as dangerous as an AA missile.

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