zrs70
Topic Author
Posts: 3300
Joined: Sun Dec 10, 2000 4:08 am

Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Fri May 18, 2012 6:48 am

Looks like it will start at $38/ share. Who is getting in?
17 year airliners.net vet! 2000-2016
 
User avatar
nighthawk
Posts: 4767
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2001 2:33 am

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Fri May 18, 2012 7:24 am

not me - i'll be staying well clear. There is far too much hype around this, it's resembling another .com bubble.

Groupon shares floated in similar circumstances for $26 a share, and it's now worth $12.50.
 
oldeuropean
Posts: 1686
Joined: Thu May 19, 2005 5:19 pm

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Fri May 18, 2012 7:36 am

This bubble will soon burst!
Wer nichts weiss muss alles glauben
 
kiwiinoz
Posts: 1999
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 3:07 pm

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Fri May 18, 2012 7:56 am

Too many people who do not know what they are doing will pile on early and force the price up. Eventually it will settle down at around $26, (I will look at it then)
 
swissy
Posts: 1481
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2005 11:12 pm

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Fri May 18, 2012 10:24 am

Ahhh...NO, maybe in the low 10's  

Cheerios,
 
WestJet747
Posts: 1950
Joined: Sat Aug 06, 2011 7:43 pm

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Fri May 18, 2012 2:06 pm

I wouldn't touch FB with a 100-foot pole. Based on the estimated value of the IPO at the current (pre-trading) range, the company is valued at something like 72 times earnings. That's absolutely ludicrous. I'd have some serious questions for anybody who thinks this is a good idea without a comprehensive 5-year plan delivered by hand from Zuckerberg himself.

Quoting zrs70 (Thread starter):
Looks like it will start at $38/ share

That's the price for institutional investors at the bell. No way somebody like you or I could get that price.

Quoting kiwiinoz (Reply 3):
Too many people who do not know what they are doing will pile on early and force the price up

Exactly. It happens in just about every tech IPO. Speculators jump the gun, forcing up overvalued stock even further, making the eventual fall back to earth even more damaging.

Quoting kiwiinoz (Reply 3):
Eventually it will settle down at around $26

I think you're being a little generous kiwiinoz!
Flying refined.
 
zrs70
Topic Author
Posts: 3300
Joined: Sun Dec 10, 2000 4:08 am

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Fri May 18, 2012 5:56 pm

Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 5):
That's the price for institutional investors at the bell. No way somebody like you or I could get that price.

Well, I got in at 38.04. We'll see how it pans out.
17 year airliners.net vet! 2000-2016
 
WestJet747
Posts: 1950
Joined: Sat Aug 06, 2011 7:43 pm

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Fri May 18, 2012 6:13 pm

Quoting zrs70 (Reply 6):
Well, I got in at 38.04. We'll see how it pans out.

I personally wouldn't have, but it looks like you got it on the cheaper end so well done!

I guess I'm eating my words a bit. As of right now (14:11 EST) it's $40.34. I had expected it to be above $50 by this point. Seems like today's peak was $42.05.
Flying refined.
 
jetmatt777
Crew
Posts: 2809
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2005 2:16 am

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Sun May 20, 2012 6:25 am

Talk about a flat stock....
Lighten up while you still can, don't even try to understand, just find a place to make your stand and take it easy
 
MadameConcorde
Posts: 9199
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2007 5:08 pm

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Mon May 21, 2012 4:29 pm

Some have made money out of it

Facebook’s $104 billion initial public offering on Friday transformed thousands of young people into instant millionaires – as well as a few billionaires – and already the booming luxury market in Silicon Valley is experiencing an upswing.
...
When CEO Mark Zuckerberg rang the opening bell, he and few close colleagues became instant billionaires, while thousands of lower-level employees became millionaires.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/technolog...es-start-luxurious-spending-spree/

              
There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
 
einsteinboricua
Posts: 4618
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:11 pm

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Mon May 21, 2012 4:34 pm

I was planning on purchasing a few shares, but after today I'll just wait until it is fairly stable (if it ever is).
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
fr8mech
Posts: 6604
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2005 9:00 am

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Mon May 21, 2012 8:23 pm

At the close, it's just north of $34. After hours is showing it down a bit.

I've already got a trigger in for $28. My gut says it won't get there before I get to go through some research. My gut also says that it will setlle down and trade in the mid-high $30 when it settles.

Let's see what Mr. Zuckerberg and gang have in store to get the stock moving a little.
When seconds count...the police are minutes away.
 
StarAC17
Posts: 3400
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Tue May 22, 2012 12:47 am

Quoting fr8mech (Reply 11):

Let's see what Mr. Zuckerberg and gang have in store to get the stock moving a little.

It will be interesting.

I wonder though if the stock once reaching equilibrium if it will be somewhat volatile when ever there is a major change to the platform.
Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
 
vegetables2001
Posts: 94
Joined: Fri Mar 23, 2012 8:28 pm

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Tue May 22, 2012 12:56 am

To be making money you should be looking in investing in the next FB.
A306,319,333 ATR72 BAC113/5, B703/704,717,721,732/3/4/5/7/8,741/1/4,757,763,773/E, DC8-6,9-3/5,10-30, DC106
 
fr8mech
Posts: 6604
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2005 9:00 am

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Wed May 23, 2012 1:29 am

I believe I'll be backing off my buy trigger. Looming lawsuits against NASDAQ, Zuckerberg & Morgan Stanley, all related to the IPO.

Stock is down around $30 quicker than I like.
When seconds count...the police are minutes away.
 
FlyPNS1
Posts: 5260
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 1999 7:12 am

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Wed May 23, 2012 2:17 am

Wall Street at it's finest. Lowering revenue estimates, but conveniently only telling a select few right before the IPO.
 
User avatar
Dreadnought
Posts: 9821
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 6:31 pm

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Wed May 23, 2012 3:13 am

I remember on the day of the IPO someone said that the buyers of Facebook were an unusually high mix of private investors - i.e. people investing with their Scottrade and TD Ameritrade accounts - and that large institutional investors were noticably staying away. That was enough for me to say, "Uh, oh".

Sure enough, it turns out that the big institutions had gotten wind that Facebook financials were going to be revised downwards after the IPO - in other words, the stock was even more overvalued than people thought.

An SEC investigation is getting started. Some people might end up in jail for this.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...-regulations-idUSBRE84M00720120523
Forget dogs and cats - Spay and neuter your liberals.
 
User avatar
nighthawk
Posts: 4767
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2001 2:33 am

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Wed May 23, 2012 7:21 am

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 9):
Some have made money out of it

these were facebook employees who were given shares in the company when it started, of course they have made money.
 
User avatar
hOMSaR
Posts: 1343
Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 4:47 am

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Wed May 23, 2012 12:26 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 16):
Sure enough, it turns out that the big institutions had gotten wind that Facebook financials were going to be revised downwards after the IPO - in other words, the stock was even more overvalued than people thought.

So the can manage to release lots of detailed, personal private information about users without letting them know (having users only stumble onto the fact that their information is out there when they find out about new privacy settings that have changed), but they can't be bothered to release relevant financial information?

Go figure.

It's funny. Before the IPO, I was thinking that a great article for The Onion would have a headline "In major miscalculation, Facebook market capitalization valued at $7.52." Then there could be some photoshopped image of a homeless guy having a stock certificate for 10% of the company because it was cheaper than the spare change a stockbroker had in his pocket. Yeah, you had to be there. Sometimes, just for fun, I dream up my own Onion articles.

Where was I? Oh right. It sounds like these guys are better at computer programming than the are at financial stuff (well, duh, that's why they launched Facebook and not the next investment firm).
The plural of Airbus is Airbuses. Airbii is not a word, and doesn't even make sense.
 
flyingturtle
Posts: 4590
Joined: Mon Oct 31, 2011 1:39 pm

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Wed May 23, 2012 12:58 pm

Well, the good thing is that the markets now put a price on all the user data we have given to the holy machinations of Facebook. 

IMHO, the market is saturated regarding social networks. If one wants to get rich... go and look for somebody with a new idea, for example companies that develop apps to use within FB. Zynga is a prime example.

I would really FEAR a social network that is hell-bent on turning user data into profits, driven by the stockholders' interests.   

Hopefully, it just turns out as a bonanza for Mr. Zuckerberg and his fellows who have already made lots of money with Facebook, and the IPO is just a practical joke played by them.

Quoting homsar (Reply 18):
It's funny. Before the IPO, I was thinking that a great article for The Onion would have a headline "In major miscalculation, Facebook market capitalization valued at $7.52." Then there could be some photoshopped image of a homeless guy having a stock certificate for 10% of the company because it was cheaper than the spare change a stockbroker had in his pocket. Yeah, you had to be there. Sometimes, just for fun, I dream up my own Onion articles.

You're a hero! Big grin


David

[Edited 2012-05-23 05:59:11]
Keeping calm is terrorism against those who want to live in fear.
 
windy95
Posts: 2658
Joined: Thu Dec 18, 2008 1:11 pm

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Wed May 23, 2012 1:26 pm

This had disaster written all over it. The only ones who made money where the insiders who had been able to sell at the start. The average street investor who jumped in at the start took a licking.
 
User avatar
falstaff
Posts: 5565
Joined: Sun Jun 25, 2006 6:17 am

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Wed May 23, 2012 1:53 pm

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 19):
If one wants to get rich... go and look for somebody with a new idea, for example companies that develop apps to use within FB. Zynga is a prime example.

I think the real way to get rich over the long term is to invest in a business that actually makes products. Over the centuries the long term big money comes from business that make things or grow things. Real wealth comes out of the earth; coal, oil, iron ore, wood, minerals, ag products, etc. Intellectual property comes and goes, but that other stuff just keeps on making money.

facebook will be ancient history in a few years and manufacturing will still be cranking out goods.

Quoting windy95 (Reply 20):
The average street investor who jumped in at the start took a licking.

I heard on the radio today that some investors still don't know if their purchases even went through.

Quoting homsar (Reply 18):
The Onion would have a headline "In major miscalculation, Facebook market capitalization valued at $7.52." Then there could be some photoshopped image of a homeless guy having a stock certificate for 10% of the company because it was cheaper than the spare change a stockbroker had in his pocket.

That would be funny!

speaking of stock certificates do any of those even get printed anymore?

Quoting vegetables2001 (Reply 13):
To be making money you should be looking in investing in the next FB.

Probably a good idea, at least for short term wealth making. It won't be long before facebook is just a thing that "we all used to do" and something new is out there. You probably be better off to invest in a.net, if that was possible, because it has been around longer most of the "hot stuff" on the Internet and likely will be around longer than the new "hot stuff" too.
My mug slaketh over on Falstaff N503
 
User avatar
Dreadnought
Posts: 9821
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 6:31 pm

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Wed May 23, 2012 2:02 pm

Quoting falstaff (Reply 21):
Probably a good idea, at least for short term wealth making. It won't be long before facebook is just a thing that "we all used to do" and something new is out there.

Anyone remember how popular MySpace was? Remember Netscape? How about e-toys, which went from around $85 per share down to 9 cents before vanishing? The only funds any investor should put into a company that goes from zero to several billions in just a couple of years based purely on popularity should be funds that he is willing to lose entirely if things go wrong.
Forget dogs and cats - Spay and neuter your liberals.
 
User avatar
moo
Posts: 4033
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 2:27 am

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Wed May 23, 2012 2:04 pm

Quoting falstaff (Reply 21):
It won't be long before facebook is just a thing that "we all used to do" and something new is out there.

I had a discussion about this with someone not that long ago, and the realisation I came to is that no, there is next to zero chance of Facebook dying off in the next 20 years.

Why? Because of the critical mass it has now - its way beyond Friendster, MySpace etc in number of interconnected users - and its that interconnections with your friends groups which is the most important thing to people these days.

It would take a miracle to migrate off of Facebook and retain the abilities you currently have on it as a platform - you might migrate, but short of forcing everyone you interact with to also migrate, you might be on your own for a while.

Facebook will grow and grow, it will add more features and it might change somewhat, but short of a legal challenge forcing ease of access to competitors for migration and interaction purposes, getting people off the platform is now the biggest roadblock - if Google struggle to do it, then so will pretty much everyone else.

What will succeed are services that do not compete with Facebook - Pinterest etc.
 
User avatar
moo
Posts: 4033
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 2:27 am

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Wed May 23, 2012 2:06 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 22):
Anyone remember how popular MySpace was?

Individual pages, not much interconnection between people and groups. Very easy to migrate off without trouble.

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 22):
Remember Netscape?

What about it? Its not comparable because its not in the same market space. Netscape failed because it had a very very poor product, not for any other reason. Facebook has a very good product, with no sign yet of it failing in quality.
 
WestJet747
Posts: 1950
Joined: Sat Aug 06, 2011 7:43 pm

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Wed May 23, 2012 2:13 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 16):
Sure enough, it turns out that the big institutions had gotten wind that Facebook financials were going to be revised downwards after the IPO - in other words, the stock was even more overvalued than people thought.

As I mentioned in an earlier reply, an IPO valuation of 70+ times above earnings is not realistic. The most successful tech companies are only valued at around 10-15 times earnings. There's no way in hell FB holds 5-7 times the value of blue chips like Apple and Microsoft.

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 19):
If one wants to get rich... go and look for somebody with a new idea, for example companies that develop apps to use within FB. Zynga is a prime example.

Zynga is the worst example! Their stock has dropped 20% since the FB IPO. Zynga's revenue stream is heavily dependant on Facebook, so if FB tanks, Zynga tanks.

Quoting windy95 (Reply 20):
This had disaster written all over it.

Agreed. Nothing about this is a good idea. As Dreadnought said:

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 16):
someone said that the buyers of Facebook were an unusually high mix of private investors - i.e. people investing with their Scottrade and TD Ameritrade accounts

It just goes to show that many were investing in FB as a "novel stock", people that just wanted a piece of Facebook without doing a lick of research. Looking at some financial statements is only part of the equation. In my opinion people failed to look at the bigger picture. Any first-year Business student who can do a SWOT analysis and examine the Porter's Five Forces could tell you this was not a good buy.

Quoting moo (Reply 24):
Facebook has a very good product, with no sign yet of it failing in quality.

Quality has an expiry date. In this industry ideas become stale very quickly. If Facebook can't reinvent itself very soon then it's doomed.
Flying refined.
 
User avatar
moo
Posts: 4033
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 2:27 am

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Wed May 23, 2012 2:18 pm

Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 25):
Quality has an expiry date. In this industry ideas become stale very quickly. If Facebook can't reinvent itself very soon then it's doomed.

Why?

Facebook is doing everthing its users want it to, and is adding new features regularly. The last thing it needs to do is reinvent itself - that could bury the company instead of make it.
 
User avatar
falstaff
Posts: 5565
Joined: Sun Jun 25, 2006 6:17 am

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Wed May 23, 2012 2:47 pm

Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 25):
Quality has an expiry date. In this industry ideas become stale very quickly

Quality is an odd word to use too. Customer perception can change very quickly with non concrete items. What is quality when it comes to facebook? What does it mean? It isn't like a consumer or industrial product that gains a reputation over time and succeeds or fails off of that reputation.

Quoting moo (Reply 23):
I had a discussion about this with someone not that long ago, and the realisation I came to is that no, there is next to zero chance of Facebook dying off in the next 20 years.

They don't actually make anything so I just can't see them staying around for the long term. What product do they sell? They sell information about their users and advertising. How long can you sell that information on a large scale and how long will it be useful? How many people actually read the ads on facebook? The people that I know who use facebook, including myself, use it for connecting with friends and don't look at the ads. I find the ads for "meet singles in your area" and similar junk just a waste of space on the page.

Quoting moo (Reply 23):
It would take a miracle to migrate off of Facebook and retain the abilities you currently have on it as a platform - you might migrate, but short of forcing everyone you interact with to also migrate, you might be on your own for a while

It doesn't matter if few people in your social group want to participate in it. I work with 100 or teenagers everyday and I am amazed by how few actually use facebook. They are a lot more into twitter. I have heard from many of them that they think facebook isn't cool because too many "old people" are using it. I have students who tell me they don't use it because their moms and dads do. There are teachers in my building who have facebook pages for their classes and they post lessons and videos of lessons on the page. When school starts becoming popular on facebook you can bet teenagers will migrate off of it in a hurry.

If a lot of young people start using something else facebook will die sooner rather than later.

Now that employers are looking at facebook sooner or later people will either be really carefull in what they post or will get burned and just swear off facebook. I know my employer didn't hire somebody becuase they had some unflattering photos on facebook. They didn't even need her passwords, they just saw them on her public profile.
My mug slaketh over on Falstaff N503
 
StarAC17
Posts: 3400
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Wed May 23, 2012 2:47 pm

Quoting moo (Reply 24):
What about it? Its not comparable because its not in the same market space. Netscape failed because it had a very very poor product, not for any other reason. Facebook has a very good product, with no sign yet of it failing in quality.

Netscape also failed because MS with Win 98 built IE into the OS making installing another browser very difficult at the time. MS was sued for doing this under anti-trust laws but it was to late to save Netscape after losing all of that share.

Quoting moo (Reply 26):
Facebook is doing everthing its users want it to, and is adding new features regularly. The last thing it needs to do is reinvent itself - that could bury the company instead of make it.

  

Every time they change the layout people get pissed, just not pissed enough to go to an alternative. I do think it is on the decline though just because the novelty of facebook has long since worn off.
Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
 
User avatar
moo
Posts: 4033
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 2:27 am

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Wed May 23, 2012 2:57 pm

Quoting falstaff (Reply 27):
They don't actually make anything so I just can't see them staying around for the long term. What product do they sell? They sell information about their users and advertising. How long can you sell that information on a large scale and how long will it be useful? How many people actually read the ads on facebook? The people that I know who use facebook, including myself, use it for connecting with friends and don't look at the ads. I find the ads for "meet singles in your area" and similar junk just a waste of space on the page.

You. You are the product they sell - Facebook has a greater density of information per user than Google can even dream about, and that is what they sell.

Forget about what Facebook is currently doing regarding ads, the next phase (coming out in the next 12 months) will be where they monetize themselves - highly targeted ads.

And don't fall into the trap where you think that what you and your friends do is the norm - if no one looked at ads, Google wouldn't be the massive company they are today. Advertising already pays off, in the future it will pay off at a greater rate for Facebook because they will be able to target much better than Google.

Facebook doesn't actually sell information to its advertisers - the infromation advertisers get is actually very little. They tell Facebook what demographics to target and Facebook targets them - advertisers get success rates back, but they get little information on users.

Facebook also makes huge amounts of money from Facebook Credits.
 
User avatar
moo
Posts: 4033
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 2:27 am

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Wed May 23, 2012 3:02 pm

Quoting StarAC17 (Reply 28):
Netscape also failed because MS with Win 98 built IE into the OS making installing another browser very difficult at the time. MS was sued for doing this under anti-trust laws but it was to late to save Netscape after losing all of that share.

Ahh, common falacy - Netscapes market share didn't start dropping until IE5 came out, and Netscape didn't respond - Navigator 4 was a total abomination, and Microsoft actually had the better product in IE 5, IE 5.5 and IE 6.

People tend to forget that.

Also, Microsoft never made installing another browser difficult at all - it was as easy as installing any other application. What Microsoft didn't do was expose APIs to change what the OS saw as the default browser, so some things (Outlook Express etc) still used IE for stuff.

Netscape did bring the anti-trust suite against them, but even then they were focussed on legal action rather than improving their own product. In the end, it was the poor product which killed them, not IEs integration into Windows.
 
flyingturtle
Posts: 4590
Joined: Mon Oct 31, 2011 1:39 pm

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Wed May 23, 2012 3:13 pm

Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 25):
Zynga is the worst example! Their stock has dropped 20% since the FB IPO. Zynga's revenue stream is heavily dependant on Facebook, so if FB tanks, Zynga tanks.

Didn't know that!   
Keeping calm is terrorism against those who want to live in fear.
 
GIANCAVIA
Posts: 906
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2010 11:45 am

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Wed May 23, 2012 3:18 pm

I dissagree that Facebook will grow and grow, Like Myspace it will have its time and die out. Twitter seems to be the new obsession and then Google+ will probably take over have its time as the next big thing then die out. FB is already finding major ways of annoying its users with its new profile layout and the way it tried to claim its allowed to us peoples pictures as it pleased.

I used myspace back in the day when i was in my teens but social networking is nothing to me, I rather watch them come and go then participate nowdays.
 
WestJet747
Posts: 1950
Joined: Sat Aug 06, 2011 7:43 pm

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Wed May 23, 2012 3:23 pm

Quoting moo (Reply 26):
Why?

Facebook is doing everthing its users want it to, and is adding new features regularly. The last thing it needs to do is reinvent itself - that could bury the company instead of make it.

That's what people said about MySpace and Friendster. Only one of those two is still viable today and that is because they reinvented themself to keep up with a) demand b) key market drivers c) drastically changing competitive environment.

If Facebook remains stagnant (slight changes to the UI don't count as new features unless they bring an entirely new functionality) then the product becomes stale/boring, pushing users to other sites that will keep them "stimulated" as it were.

There are three things Facebook does right that cannot change: 1) their targeted ad revenue model, 2) remaning focused on social networking and connectivity, and 3) sharing experiences (pictures/audio/video). When I say they need to reinvent themselves, I don't mean for them to stray from the core of their business, the three things listed above. What I mean is that they need to bring something new to the table to either work in parallel with the social networking aspect (similar to what Google does, but on a less diversified scale), or they need to up the level of connectivity. I'm not entirely sure how they would do either, but I'm not the one being paid to come up with ideas.   But I repeat: it's all about keeping the users "stimulated".

Quoting falstaff (Reply 27):
What is quality when it comes to facebook? What does it mean?

Good question. I think it's fair to say that quality is going to mean different things to different people. To me, it means keeping something fresh.

Quoting falstaff (Reply 27):
They sell information about their users and advertising. How long can you sell that information on a large scale and how long will it be useful?

1) The cost structure of information is imperfect. There's no proven way to calculate the cost associated with producing information, while the price at which information is sold is dependant on what they can get for it. In theory (and I stress that it's just a theory) you should never take a loss on selling information, because really, the margins are just numbers on Zuckerberg's dart board.
2) There will never be a day where market demographics are not sought after by marketers.
Flying refined.
 
User avatar
nighthawk
Posts: 4767
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2001 2:33 am

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Wed May 23, 2012 3:24 pm

Quoting moo (Reply 23):
I had a discussion about this with someone not that long ago, and the realisation I came to is that no, there is next to zero chance of Facebook dying off in the next 20 years.

Why? Because of the critical mass it has now - its way beyond Friendster, MySpace etc in number of interconnected users - and its that interconnections with your friends groups which is the most important thing to people these days.

I would say there is next to a 100% chance that facebook will one day die off, and a very high chance that this will occur within the next 20 years. Every product has it's day - it's called the product life cycle - and facebook will be no different. It's time will come and go, and eventually something new will take it's place.

10 years ago I used ICQ to communicate with my friends. All my friends used ICQ, so there was no point switching. When microsoft announced MSN Messenger, it looked pointless, it looked like no-one would ever switch due to ICQ having critical mass. But over the years more and more friends switched over to MSN Messenger, before finally I also made the switch. Then when everyone was using Windows Live Messengeras it became known, it looked like it would be around forever. If I was to log into it today, i'd be lucky if there are 2 friends online, compared to 10-20 a few years ago. They have all moved to facebook.

And the same will happen with facebook. I think you are looking at it the wrong way, you are probably right that myspace or friendster will never replace facebook, but something new almost certainly will.

At the end of the day facebook is just a website, which users must sign up to use. Sure, it may have an app for mobiles, but it's still essentially a website. I expect in the next few years something new will emerge which is much more mobile focused, it will probably be more of a protocol such as SMS/MMS - simply adding someones phone number to your phone book will allow you to interact in the same way you do now with facebook or twitter.

In 20 years time people will be posting on here asking if anyone still remembers "facebook", while those of us who remember look back with fond memories, while wondering why we thought it was so great at the time and continued to put up with its inefficient ways of working when compared to its eventual successor.
 
User avatar
moo
Posts: 4033
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 2:27 am

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Wed May 23, 2012 3:24 pm

Quoting Giancavia (Reply 32):
I dissagree that Facebook will grow and grow, Like Myspace it will have its time and die out.

MySpace died because of Facebook.

So far, there isn't a replacement for Facebook even remotely hinted at in rumours.

And Facebook is getting it all right in lock-in - MySpace didn't.

Quoting Giancavia (Reply 32):
Twitter seems to be the new obsession

Twitter is existing alongside Facebook, because the two do not achieve the same thing. I don't see anything changing in that regard.

Quoting Giancavia (Reply 32):
then Google+ will probably take over have its time as the next big thing then die out.

Is that totally ignoring the fact that Google+ has failed to get off the ground, with its active userbase shrinking in double digit percentages over the past three months?

Quoting Giancavia (Reply 32):
FB is already finding major ways of annoying its users with its new profile layout and the way it tried to claim its allowed to us peoples pictures as it pleased.

Any change is treated as negative, services just have to ride out the vocal minorities that dislike it.

And check the terms of service for any hosting site, Dropbox, Google etc - they all basically say "we are allowed to use your content for anything."
 
Silver1SWA
Crew
Posts: 4455
Joined: Wed Mar 10, 2004 6:11 pm

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Wed May 23, 2012 3:26 pm

Quoting moo (Reply 26):
Quoting falstaff (Reply 27):

I have a Facebook account but I have stayed away from it for a few years now. Too much drama and lack of control over being exposed to certain individuals. But anyway, I'm not current on the Facebook happenings, but what I can say from my twitter feed is that more and more people are deleting their accounts and walking away. Not just people I follow on twitter doing this, but others are taking notice of the increasing number of their friends disappearing from Facebook.
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
JetBlueGuy2006
Posts: 1482
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 5:38 am

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Wed May 23, 2012 3:29 pm

Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 25):
As I mentioned in an earlier reply, an IPO valuation of 70+ times above earnings is not realistic. The most successful tech companies are only valued at around 10-15 times earnings

I also thought the valuation was maybe a little too high. It seemed like when they initially came out with the price about 3 weeks ago, they were going to value it in the high 20's.

Also, does the issues that the technical issues NASDAQ had on Friday affecting the price.
Home Airport: Capital Region International Airport (KLAN)
 
User avatar
moo
Posts: 4033
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 2:27 am

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Wed May 23, 2012 3:30 pm

Quoting nighthawk (Reply 34):
p

With ICQ you had what connection keeping you using the application - an ICQ number? What else?

Facebook users have entire galleries, groups, posts, friends lists - all things that you cannot trivially get out of the service and into another one.

Add to that the fact that ICQ peaked at less than 10% of Facebooks current active userbase...
 
Klaus
Posts: 20578
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Wed May 23, 2012 3:45 pm

Quoting moo (Reply 29):
Advertising already pays off, in the future it will pay off at a greater rate for Facebook because they will be able to target much better than Google.

No, it's actually trending the other way already, since more and more people are more and more shifting their internet use to mobile devices where advertising gets so intrusive on the relatively small displays that it is much harder to place ads without annoying your users to the point of abandoning the base service entirely.

Facebook will tend to lose ad revenue because of the trend to mobile use, and the only thing I'm shocked about is that some analysts and investors have only woken up to this fact after the IPO.

The FB stock will eventually find its home in the low single digits like many others before it; They simply have too little revenue and profit potential to justify the current massive overvaluation.

Quoting moo (Reply 38):
Facebook users have entire galleries, groups, posts, friends lists - all things that you cannot trivially get out of the service and into another one.

Add to that the fact that ICQ peaked at less than 10% of Facebooks current active userbase...

FB must be seen in relation to massively increased internet use in total, so the relative ratios of internet users participating in the respective service should be closer.

The thing is that all it takes is new users hopping on a different train and abandoning the former "it" place to send the old one into a nosedive.

Add to that FB being on a pretty risky collision course with privacy legislation and authorities in various countries (and on the EU level), major advertisers such as GM losing interest due to low conversion rates and the already moderate earnings may evaporate relatively quickly.

FB has a rather vulnerable product in a fickle market.

They may succeed in the long run, but it could also have been the perfect time for an IPO to absolutely maximize the share price at this single point before the outlook turns south again, and the likelihood of the fantastic profit growth valued into the initial share price ever becoming real look rather remote.

[Edited 2012-05-23 08:55:40]
 
User avatar
Dreadnought
Posts: 9821
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 6:31 pm

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Wed May 23, 2012 3:50 pm

Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 25):
As I mentioned in an earlier reply, an IPO valuation of 70+ times above earnings is not realistic. The most successful tech companies are only valued at around 10-15 times earnings. There's no way in hell FB holds 5-7 times the value of blue chips like Apple and Microsoft.

It can be realistic. A fast-growing company can easily sell for 70 x earnings or more. A company that is still growing but not so fast anymore may trade in the 20 x range (Google is now at 22). Companies that are steady performers but dont grow a lot, but still kick off a lot of dividends and cash trade in the low teens (Microsoft and Exxon are both around 10 x).

And that is all in a down market. If the economy were to get going again, you can expect all those P/E ratios to increase by up to 50%
Forget dogs and cats - Spay and neuter your liberals.
 
GIANCAVIA
Posts: 906
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2010 11:45 am

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Wed May 23, 2012 3:53 pm

Quoting moo (Reply 35):
MySpace died because of Facebook.

Negative.. Myspace died because it had no idea how to change. Firstly it updated to a profile style nobody wanted (Kinda like FB just did) Then it updated it again then again.. by the time it came to a format it settled with they had lost huge value and Millions of users. It wasnt possible to use Myspace without encountering error after error.

They had the potential to keep a huge amount of users who dont want their family names or private info all over the place and were just casually using the net for amusement or talking to people on the other side of the world to pass time, Insted it now resembles a low class celebrity magazine.

Quoting moo (Reply 35):
Is that totally ignoring the fact that Google+ has failed to get off the ground, with its active userbase shrinking in double digit percentages over the past three months?

Very early days for google In my opinion and with their clout I have no doubt they will become a major player for a while (Not my cup of tea but everyone runs off to the next fad and they will know how to promote themselves accordingly).

Time will tell but nothing will convince me FB will be here HUGE and successfull in 10 years time.. Thats the way social networks all go. FB will become "uncool" and everyone will be using the next big future flop.
 
WestJet747
Posts: 1950
Joined: Sat Aug 06, 2011 7:43 pm

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Wed May 23, 2012 4:03 pm

Another point I hadn't made earlier is that one of the largest functionalities of Facebook is helping kill the company: Facebook for BlackBerry/iPhone/Android. For those that you use Facebook Mobile (I don't think they call it that anymore?) you know that there is no advertising space. What do we all know is the profit driver for Facebook? Advertising. By pushing their product to mobile devices (tablets included) they are severely diminishing their key revenue generator. But without the mobile presence, people lose connectivity, and connectivity is what creates traffic. A very complex and potentially disastrous scenario eh?

Quoting moo (Reply 35):
Twitter is existing alongside Facebook, because the two do not achieve the same thing. I don't see anything changing in that regard.

The two are not mutually exclusive in what they provide the user. There is a significant overlap that, to a degree, has eroded a small portion of the Facebook user base. I'm sure the number of complete defectors is low, but it does happen more than FB is willing to admit.

Quoting moo (Reply 35):
Is that totally ignoring the fact that Google+ has failed to get off the ground, with its active userbase shrinking in double digit percentages over the past three months?

   Google+ is a joke. They're trying to be Facebook while differentiating from Facebook, ultimately just complicating the entire user experience. I lasted about a week before I closed my account.

Quoting moo (Reply 38):
Add to that the fact that ICQ peaked at less than 10% of Facebooks current active userbase...

In all fairness, the number of people on the internet 15 years ago was also a fraction of what it is today. So in relative terms I think it would be higher than 10%.

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 40):
A fast-growing company can easily sell for 70 x earnings or more.

You're correct, but it's not the case with respect to Facebook. Facebook is peaking. Part of the reason these lawsuits are being filed today is because they are claiming that growth expectations were misrepresented (skewed way too high) to non-institutional investors. Facebook is not growing fast enough to justify 70 times earnings in my opinion.

[Edited 2012-05-23 09:15:40]
Flying refined.
 
Klaus
Posts: 20578
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Wed May 23, 2012 4:04 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 40):
Companies that are steady performers but dont grow a lot, but still kick off a lot of dividends and cash trade in the low teens (Microsoft and Exxon are both around 10 x).

Even the rapidly growing and massively profitable Apple has a P/E ratio of just 13.54

Facebook looks a bit like a late outlier of the dotcom bubble years.

Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 42):
Another point I hadn't made earlier is that one of the largest functionalities of Facebook is helping kill the company: Facebook for BlackBerry/iPhone/Android.

Looks like we were thinking alike (see my editedt post above).

[Edited 2012-05-23 09:12:16]
 
User avatar
moo
Posts: 4033
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 2:27 am

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Wed May 23, 2012 4:13 pm

Quoting Klaus (Reply 39):
No, it's actually trending the other way already, since more and more people are more and more shifting their internet use to mobile devices where advertising gets so intrusive on the relatively small displays that it is much harder to place ads without annoying your users to the point of abandoning the base service entirely.

I'm in the process of writing a social media platform at the moment - its not a Facebook competitor (we are actually talking to Facebook at the moment about cross site deals), so I've done the research (well, I haven't, but someone else on the team has) as our site will be ad backed.

Advertising isn't going anywhere, and it certainly isn't trending downward at the moment.

The trend to mobile use does nothing negative to advertising at all.

Quoting Klaus (Reply 39):
FB must be seen in relation to massively increased internet use in total, so the relative ratios of internet users participating in the respective service should be closer.

That was my point - it was easy to get off ICQ because you had a smaller friend base to contend with. Now try switching services with todays uptake - many won't bother following you.

Quoting Klaus (Reply 39):
FB has a rather vulnerable product in a fickle market.

Facebook has a significantly less vulnerable product than those services that people left to go to it.

Quoting Giancavia (Reply 41):
Negative.. Myspace died because it had no idea how to change. Firstly it updated to a profile style nobody wanted (Kinda like FB just did) Then it updated it again then again.. by the time it came to a format it settled with they had lost huge value and Millions of users. It wasnt possible to use Myspace without encountering error after error.

I will say it again - MySpace died because of Facebook. Yes, MySpace was a mess toward the end - Facebook wasn't. Facebook had the consistent interface style that MySpace didnt have (no more visiting a horrific pink page with "my little pony" music playing in the background - that was what made MySpace suck).

Facebook was the better platform - and people migrated to it. And MySpace made it *trivially* easy to migrate to it - Facebook doesn't make it easy at all to migrate away.

Quoting Giancavia (Reply 41):
Very early days for google In my opinion and with their clout I have no doubt they will become a major player for a while

So early infact that Google are having to pad their Google+ numbers with anyone who created and used a Youtube or Gmail account recently... Doesn't matter if you've never visited your Google+ page, you are a counted user!
 
Klaus
Posts: 20578
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Wed May 23, 2012 4:30 pm

Quoting moo (Reply 44):
Advertising isn't going anywhere, and it certainly isn't trending downward at the moment.

Questions are:

• with the difficult situation of the economy at large, will advertising budgets remain unaffected?

• when a service has its users migrating from the desktop to mobile devices to an extent, will ad revenue remain unaffected?

It's not the question whether ad revenues on the desktop or in the mobile space are unchanged by themselves, but also what's happening when users defect from the former to the latter.
 
User avatar
moo
Posts: 4033
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 2:27 am

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Wed May 23, 2012 4:53 pm

Quoting Klaus (Reply 45):
Questions are:

• with the difficult situation of the economy at large, will advertising budgets remain unaffected?

As far as I have seen, they've gone up in most areas.

Quoting Klaus (Reply 45):
• when a service has its users migrating from the desktop to mobile devices to an extent, will ad revenue remain unaffected?

Migrating to a mobile device brings a higher yield ad focus in - desktop users can block ads, mobile device users cannot (especially if the ad is embedded in the app - ad blockers dont get the chance) - and the ad can be location targeted as well as demographic targeted.
 
User avatar
Dreadnought
Posts: 9821
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 6:31 pm

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Wed May 23, 2012 5:06 pm

Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 42):
You're correct, but it's not the case with respect to Facebook. Facebook is peaking. Part of the reason these lawsuits are being filed today is because they are claiming that growth expectations were misrepresented (skewed way too high) to non-institutional investors. Facebook is not growing fast enough to justify 70 times earnings in my opinion.

Oh, no argument about that. Facebook already has - what - a billion users now? And all the advertising it can handle (in fact it just lost GM). A P/E ratio of 70 is justified if you have a business plan where you can realistically grow your revenues and earnings by 100% per year for several years, and I just don't see that happening - how can you grow that fast when you are already so big?

I haven't seen the financial projections they broadcast prior to the IPO, but it sounds like they were wildly optimistic.
Forget dogs and cats - Spay and neuter your liberals.
 
Silver1SWA
Crew
Posts: 4455
Joined: Wed Mar 10, 2004 6:11 pm

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Wed May 23, 2012 10:33 pm

Quoting moo (Reply 44):
That was my point - it was easy to get off ICQ because you had a smaller friend base to contend with. Now try switching services with todays uptake - many won't bother following you.

When Google+ launched, they had a lot of potential and a lot of Facebook users eager to try it out. Google+ had a chance, but failed. People gave it a try and didn't like it but the important thing is people were willing to see what it was all about. If something comes along that people are willing to try and they get hooked, goodbye Facebook.
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
Type-Rated
Posts: 3901
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 1999 5:18 am

RE: Who's Buying Facebook Stock?

Wed May 23, 2012 11:26 pm

I asked my broker to get me 100 shares just for kicks. He told me that for the first thirty days the only people they are selling FB stock to are those who have accounts worth more than $750,000. I don't have that much with that brokerage.

By saying no he saved me some money.

On the news today it looks like Facebook and it's management are being sued by the people who bought it. Too much insider information.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...d=4568503a58744fb1996cc5e5fcd59dac
Fly North Central Airlines..The route of the Northliners!

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: MrHMSH, PacificBeach88 and 7 guests