PHX787
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Turkey To NATO: Hold Syria Accountable

Wed Jun 27, 2012 6:19 am

Well given the recent events with the Turkish F-4 getting shot down (this may have been discussed in the military forum), Turkey has been in consultations with NATO about what to do about it. As you know, a CASA search plane was also fired upon, and both incidents happened in international waters.

Questions to discuss:

Will Turkey/SHOULD Turkey go to war with Syria?

Should the US get involved (maybe selling more advanced aircraft to Turkey?)

Would Turkish intervention resolve the Syrian conflict or cause more destruction (beyond typical wartime destruction)

What should the UN do about this?

With Putin visiting Israel, is this a sign that Russia might let the UNSC do something about the situation there?

Turkish members, please fill me in on what the news is saying there. My close friend usually keeps me clued in on this, but she's busy studying for medical exams.

Peace, Z
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moo
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RE: Turkey To NATO: Hold Syria Accountable

Wed Jun 27, 2012 7:28 am

The evidence as being reported has the Turkish F-4 being shot down by anti aircraft gunfire and not missiles, so we are talking short range, placing the jet squarely within Syrian airspace - Syria had every right to defend itself. From what I have also read, Turkey didn't contact Syria until after the second aircraft was shot at, so Syria was still in the dark as to what's going on.

It does seem that with all the NATO article 4 and 5 talk going on that someone is attempting to make enough bluster out of this to take action against Syria, when currently the evidence puts Turkey in the wrong. If Turkey attacks Syria, and if NATO supports them, then it will be a war based on an excuse and not a decent foundation.
 
MD11Engineer
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RE: Turkey To NATO: Hold Syria Accountable

Wed Jun 27, 2012 8:31 am

Something doesn´t add up there. Today AA guns are only used for extreme shortrange protection against low flying aircraft at a range of maximum of about 5 km. The usual calibre is 20-40 mm in a fully auto configuration. The WW2 heavy AA guns (like the British 3.7" gun or the German 88mm gun or their Soviet counterparts) have long been replaced by missiles because they can´t follow a fast jet.
The RF-4 reconnaisance aircraft on the other hand is usually flown at high altitude to take pictures, far out of range of these light AA guns.
It is also claimed that the aircraft crashed over the sea.

Jan
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moo
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RE: Turkey To NATO: Hold Syria Accountable

Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:24 am

Quoting MD11Engineer (Reply 2):
Something doesn´t add up there. Today AA guns are only used for extreme shortrange protection against low flying aircraft at a range of maximum of about 5 km. The usual calibre is 20-40 mm in a fully auto configuration. The WW2 heavy AA guns (like the British 3.7" gun or the German 88mm gun or their Soviet counterparts) have long been replaced by missiles because they can´t follow a fast jet.

Syria is claiming it fired on the aircraft while it was about 1km from the coast, and the plane subsequently crashed 10km out.

The BBC has a map with the Syrian account plotted on it, including the alleged path of the aircraft.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18584872
 
MD11Engineer
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RE: Turkey To NATO: Hold Syria Accountable

Wed Jun 27, 2012 10:03 am

Quoting moo (Reply 3):
Syria is claiming it fired on the aircraft while it was about 1km from the coast, and the plane subsequently crashed 10km out.

Still, that would mean that the aircraft did a low level overflight. Seems inprobable.

Jan
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Stealthz
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RE: Turkey To NATO: Hold Syria Accountable

Wed Jun 27, 2012 10:37 am

Quoting moo (Reply 1):
Turkey didn't contact Syria until after the second aircraft was shot at, so Syria was still in the dark as to what's going on.


They fired Missiles and guns(allegedly) at 2 aircraft but they needed to be called by Turkey to know what was going on???

Not saying Turkey is a totally innocent party here but I am pretty sure Syria knew what it was shooting at.
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moo
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RE: Turkey To NATO: Hold Syria Accountable

Wed Jun 27, 2012 11:06 am

Quoting stealthz (Reply 5):
They fired Missiles and guns(allegedly) at 2 aircraft but they needed to be called by Turkey to know what was going on???

Not saying Turkey is a totally innocent party here but I am pretty sure Syria knew what it was shooting at.

Lets look at the bigger picture - Syrias government knows the west doesn't like it, they know the west wants to replace it, they know the west has taken action many times over the past 25 years to that effect in other countries.

They also know that there is fast flying aircraft invading its airspace, carrying out manouevers. They know they dont have any aircraft in the area.

Syria knew what it was firing at - an aircraft that was violating its airspace. Under the circumstances of international tensions, it doesn't need to know anything else before taking action.

Firstly, the Turkish aircraft should not have been in Syrian airspace. Secondly, if Turkey was going to send further aircraft in after it, then they most certainly should be telling Syria whats going on - you don't have the right to just send aircraft into another countries territory, regardless of the reason. If its a rescue mission, they should be telling Syria before doing it.
 
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casinterest
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RE: Turkey To NATO: Hold Syria Accountable

Wed Jun 27, 2012 12:06 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Thread starter):
What should the UN do about this?

On this matter specifically, nothing at this point. If there is new evidence of attempted identification or differing locations , maybe it can be revisited.

Turkey has had a recent history of encouraging and engaging in risky behavior with it's neighbors that have resulted in serious repercussions.
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einsteinboricua
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RE: Turkey To NATO: Hold Syria Accountable

Wed Jun 27, 2012 12:36 pm

Turkey did not invoke Article 5 (the all for one and one for all clause) so for the time being a NATO military conflict is ruled out. Some things are still hazy however. Was this deliberate to provoke Syria and attempt to invade? Was it just an accident as Turkey claims to be?
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Starbuk7
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RE: Turkey To NATO: Hold Syria Accountable

Wed Jun 27, 2012 1:12 pm

Quoting moo (Reply 6):
Lets look at the bigger picture - Syrias government knows the west doesn't like it, they know the west wants to replace it, they know the west has taken action many times over the past 25 years to that effect in other countries.

They also know that there is fast flying aircraft invading its airspace, carrying out manouevers. They know they dont have any aircraft in the area.



When is the last time the WEST flew F-4's? I worked on them in the Navy and the list time we were flying them was in the late 1980's, so why would they think it was the west?

Neither party here is innocent but I will put the major blame on Syria.
 
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9MMPQ
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RE: Turkey To NATO: Hold Syria Accountable

Wed Jun 27, 2012 1:45 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Thread starter):
Will Turkey/SHOULD Turkey go to war with Syria?

No they won't, there's unfortunately little to gain and politically a lot to loose. They certainly won't go in without,at the very least, the political backing of their Western & NATO allies. Should they ? Well, i think it's a pretty sorry state that the UN has spoken of a civil war & the nations are sitting around the sidelines waving around their embargoes. Obviously it isn't just a Turkish concern but i don't see anyone step up to the plate with any further serious action.

Quoting PHX787 (Thread starter):
Should the US get involved (maybe selling more advanced aircraft to Turkey?)

See above for part of what i think .. selling more hardware to Turkey won't do anything either, their current inventory will do them just fine if things were to seriously kick off.

Quoting PHX787 (Thread starter):
Would Turkish intervention resolve the Syrian conflict or cause more destruction (beyond typical wartime destruction)

Serious intervention, perhaps, but nobody will be getting themselves into a situation like this anytime soon.

Quoting PHX787 (Thread starter):
What should the UN do about this?

The UN has done pretty much all it can do & i doubt Bashar al-Assad is taking that very seriously.

Quoting PHX787 (Thread starter):
With Putin visiting Israel, is this a sign that Russia might let the UNSC do something about the situation there?

Russia hasn't blinked an eye at the UN assemblies, i doubt a visit to Israel can be taken as a sign of anything in that regard.
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moo
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RE: Turkey To NATO: Hold Syria Accountable

Wed Jun 27, 2012 1:45 pm

Quoting starbuk7 (Reply 9):
When is the last time the WEST flew F-4's? I worked on them in the Navy and the list time we were flying them was in the late 1980's, so why would they think it was the west?

What makes you think they had a confirmed visual ID of the aircraft type?

Quoting starbuk7 (Reply 9):
Neither party here is innocent but I will put the major blame on Syria.

Of course you would. Airspace allegedly gets violated, an aircraft gets shot down, lets not blame the alleged violator shall we...
 
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Moose135
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RE: Turkey To NATO: Hold Syria Accountable

Wed Jun 27, 2012 1:58 pm

Quoting starbuk7 (Reply 9):
When is the last time the WEST flew F-4's? I worked on them in the Navy and the list time we were flying them was in the late 1980's, so why would they think it was the west?

The US military wasn't the only Phantom operator. While we haven't used Phantoms in a while - well, except for the drones - but just in the region, Germany, Turkey, Greece, Egypt, and Iran all currently use the F-4.
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Turkey To NATO: Hold Syria Accountable

Wed Jun 27, 2012 4:49 pm

Let's be fair here, the US would do mostly the same thing...

We can detect aircraft many miles out and would intercept that aircraft with our own fighters... if the mystery aircraft acts too suspicious and does not turn around, we'd blow it out of the sky.

Syria does not have the technology (I don't think) to intercept like we do, so they skipped to the shoot down phase, something I think the US would do with Syria's technology. I have not seen an article yet but it seems as if Turkey provoked/accidentally provoked Syria... what were they doing anyway?
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PHX787
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RE: Turkey To NATO: Hold Syria Accountable

Wed Jun 27, 2012 11:55 pm

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 13):
Syria does not have the technology (I don't think) to intercept like we do, so they skipped to the shoot down phase, something I think the US would do with Syria's technology. I have not seen an article yet but it seems as if Turkey provoked/accidentally provoked Syria... what were they doing anyway?

I think that maybe Turkey was doing recon on refugees coming over the border. My friend will probably enlighten me more about it tomorrow after her exam.
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tu204
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RE: Turkey To NATO: Hold Syria Accountable

Thu Jun 28, 2012 2:08 am

Good for Syria. I do not see how with the available information anyone can possibly put the blame on Syria.
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prebennorholm
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RE: Turkey To NATO: Hold Syria Accountable

Thu Jun 28, 2012 2:10 am

Quoting moo (Reply 11):
What makes you think they had a confirmed visual ID of the aircraft type?

They had it on radar from shortly after takeoff.

Within shooting range the Phantom is easily identified even without binoculars.

Even with clouds the very special sound of those J79 engines gives it away, and radar guided guns would take it down. But I don't think it was overcast - clouds are rare in that region at this time of the year.
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Turkey To NATO: Hold Syria Accountable

Thu Jun 28, 2012 2:27 am

Quoting prebennorholm (Reply 16):
Within shooting range the Phantom is easily identified even without binoculars.

So identifying it as an F-4 (a fighter version?) would make Syria NOT want to shoot it down? If anything, Syria positively identifying it as an F-4 justifies shooting it down. Am I wrong?
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RE: Turkey To NATO: Hold Syria Accountable

Thu Jun 28, 2012 3:19 am

Quoting PHX787 (Thread starter):
Will Turkey/SHOULD Turkey go to war with Syria?

Not directly but it might be worth arming the Syrian rebels. And they should keep supporting Syrian refugees.

Quoting PHX787 (Thread starter):
Should the US get involved (maybe selling more advanced aircraft to Turkey?)

No, the US should stay out of the Middle East and keep to its own back yard for once. This is a problem for Europe and the Arab world to deal with.

Quoting PHX787 (Thread starter):
What should the UN do about this?

They probably can't do much because:
1) The Turkish jet was in Syrian Airspace. Whether intentionally or not, it is the PIC's responsibility to know the aircraft's exact location. Anyway, since when did F4s become 'reconnaissance planes'?
2) Russia and China have been pretty consistent with their Security Council vetos, so any UN action will probably be pointless.
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mham001
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RE: Turkey To NATO: Hold Syria Accountable

Thu Jun 28, 2012 3:55 am

Quoting zkojq (Reply 18):
No, the US should stay out of the Middle East and keep to its own back yard for once. This is a problem for Europe and the Arab world to deal with.

I don't know why Europe should be so sacrosanct. If not for the incredibly arrogant way several European countries divided up the Middle East and Africa, there wouldn't be half the problems in the world today.
 
AR385
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RE: Turkey To NATO: Hold Syria Accountable

Thu Jun 28, 2012 5:13 am

Syria is headed for a Kadaffi like finale. Worse, if Asma doesn´t make it out of there, it´s going to be a Ceausescu-like finale. Wether Turkey was provoking them or not, or wether the UN has their hands tied because of Russia and China is at this point pretty irrelevant. I think it´s just a matter of weeks. Combat is already taking place in the outskirts of Damascus.

I don´t see why any Western nation needs to get involved at this point. It will be over soon. More to the point, the West needs to start worrying about what will happen afterwards, and what type of government ends up ruling Syria.
 
Starbuk7
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RE: Turkey To NATO: Hold Syria Accountable

Thu Jun 28, 2012 12:38 pm

Quoting zkojq (Reply 18):
since when did F4s become 'reconnaissance planes'


since 1963
http://www.mcara.us/RF-4B.html

Quoting prebennorholm (Reply 16):
Even with clouds the very special sound of those J79 engines gives it away


And the lovely "smoke trails" from those J-79's are visible from a distance as well.
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Turkey To NATO: Hold Syria Accountable

Thu Jun 28, 2012 6:10 pm

Quoting AR385 (Reply 20):

Don't forget though that Russia has a big naval base (its only one in the Mediterranean Sea) and is making a killing off selling weapons to Syria. That is going to complicate things...
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BMI727
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RE: Turkey To NATO: Hold Syria Accountable

Thu Jun 28, 2012 6:16 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Thread starter):
Will Turkey/SHOULD Turkey go to war with Syria?

I don't care. It's a Turkish and Syrian issue. If they need planes or weapons just send cash, check, or money order.
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prebennorholm
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RE: Turkey To NATO: Hold Syria Accountable

Thu Jun 28, 2012 10:59 pm

Quoting starbuk7 (Reply 21):
Quoting prebennorholm (Reply 16):
Even with clouds the very special sound of those J79 engines gives it away.

And the lovely "smoke trails" from those J-79's are visible from a distance as well.

Yes, but Syrian MiG planes deliver just as beautiful smoke trails. So for identification alone.... the smoke trail alone wouldn't help identify friend or foe.
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Aesma
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RE: Turkey To NATO: Hold Syria Accountable

Fri Jun 29, 2012 3:45 am

Quoting starbuk7 (Reply 9):
When is the last time the WEST flew F-4's?

Well, Turkey is part of NATO. And for some reason, the US, be it with a republican or democrat at the helm, is really pushing for the entry of Turkey in the EU, so it must be part of the west.

Quoting zkojq (Reply 18):
Not directly but it might be worth arming the Syrian rebels.

Turkey has been doing that for a long time ! In fact it wouldn't surprise me if the US was involved, too. The goal being to replace the current Iranian puppet with a western puppet. You can see why the Russians wouldn't want that to happen.
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