comorin
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Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 1:14 pm

I read an interesting piece on alternet about how Israel is likely to attack Iran in the next12 weeks (before the US election). The reason given is that neither candidate can afford to say anything against such an action at this time. I do hope this doesn't happen as we are all (including Islaelis) heartily sick of wars and need to move on with economic matters.

At a more cynical level, the article points out that a war with Iran would raise gas prices, and that would help Romney win.

Apologies if this has been discussed before, but I will do anything to avoid using that search engine.

http://www.alternet.org/world/get-re...ely-strike-iran-november-elections

My questions are:

Will this act be catastrophic to the region? What will the US and EU do?
Iran is a large country with 70 million people, and they already fought a sustained war with Iraq. Why would they fold?
How would neighboring countries react and who will they side with?
 
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Dreadnought
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 1:25 pm

If you look at the placement of our carriers, you have to wonder if something is up.

http://www.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/main/images/Naval_Update_08-15-12_2%20%281%29.jpg

We have no carriers in the Atlantic or Med (when was the last time that happened?). One in the Pacific doing workups for eventual deployment, and two in the Persian Gulf region. It will be interesting to find out where Nimitz heads off to once they are up to steam. If anything is to happen (assuming the US knows about it) it will before the Enterprise heads home (it's final mission before decommissioning), and after Nimitz arrives, giving a 3-carrier force.
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comorin
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 1:31 pm

Dreadnought, thanks, very interesting picture! Would rising tensions in that region call for a Mediterranean presence?
 
flyingturtle
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 1:33 pm

Israel will attack some underground nuclear facilities, pound them for one week straight with various bombs and cruise missiles, and two years later, the Israeli PM will declare: "They are STILL working on nuclear weapons!"

The worst thing is a solution to the whole problem, as this would cause a serious headache in the politicians' minds. Israel has already struggled with the revolution in Egypt.



David
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flyingturtle
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 1:36 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 1):

I think this amounts to a "baaah, if something botches up, it's your mess" adressed to Mr. Netanyahu. I hope this will make some Israeli warhawks sober.
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PanHAM
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 2:14 pm

Looking at the chart, the US is not prepared for that. They'd need to deploy at least 2 carriers to the Mediterranean Sea. OK, that could be rather quick from Norfolk provided these convoys are ready to sail.

What could not go unnoticed is the assembly of KC135/KC10s . i doubt that israel could hit that with their own ressources and what I remember having seen at FRA, the huge line-up of support aircraft during the Balkan war, such a line-up would not go unnoticed. Israel could do a hit and run strike to neighbour Syria where the chief of the air foirce might still have been under the shower while the jets had been back on base in Israel, with the greater distance to Iran and the equipment they would need to destroy the facilities deep in the earth that would be too much to handle for them.

besides, Iran would retaliate with missiles and the Hezbollah in lebanon would strom the northern border. Israel has better means to pinch the Iranians and they shpould sit out the developments in syria. Without Assad Iran is pretty lonely.
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N537FX
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 3:01 pm

Any israeli attack would be a big disaster, who knows if it could actually work. There seems to be a perception in Jerusalem that the US is not serous about a military option. Even if the US was serious, Israel would never out source their "security" to another country and when threatened, Israel will act no matter what.

Also consider the great distance Israel must travel to hit Iran. When Iran hits back at Israel, they have to go through these same hurdles and I'm not sure they have good enough power projection. They have a poor Air force, so all they can do is call up their proxies armed with fire crackers and Iran itself can launch their own missiles, some will be intercepted by Israel's advanced missile defenses.

So how well can Iran hit Israel? Iran wouldn't dare attack US targets or interests, they don't want to fight America. As a result, since they can't attack American targets, their response will be limited and just focused at Israel.
 
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 3:32 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 1):
We have no carriers in the Atlantic or Med (when was the last time that happened?).

If U.S. carriers are supposed to support Israel, why would you want them in the Med or Atlantic? Apparently, there are two carriers and an LPD in the Gulf of Oman and thus close to Iran.

A carrier close to Israel would achieve nothing - other than providing Assad with arguments that the rebellion in his country was driven by the U.S.
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 3:36 pm

Quoting N537FX (Reply 6):
So how well can Iran hit Israel?

I recently thought of World War II's merchant raiders. Really low-tech, and could wreak some havoc. They would be really dumb if they had no plan to strike back at either Israel or the U.S. - even if it would take them some years to retaliate.


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comorin
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 3:44 pm

Quoting N537FX (Reply 6):

Also, you cant attack a nation of 70m people and not kick up a hornet's nest...while sanctions can help turn Iranians against their rulers, an attack would unite them, undoing years of Western foreign policy. I think this is a region where the US keeps the peace, and the nations there count on it.

I wonder what native-born Israelis make of this.
 
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 4:01 pm

Quoting comorin (Reply 9):
while sanctions can help turn Iranians against their rulers

The emphasis is on "can". The Iranians have a long and bitter history of having their rulers overthrown by western forces, or the country being occupied. One can look up the history of the AIOC, the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, the precursor to British Petroleum.

The current strategy called "if sanctions do not work, use tougher sanctions" will inevitably fail. Iran isn't in a position where it can lose anything (except its relations to China or Russia), and so we should give them something they are liable to lose again - like free access to any civilian-purpose goods.

If goods do not cross frontiers, soldiers will.



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casinterest
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 4:02 pm

Quoting NoUFO (Reply 7):
If U.S. carriers are supposed to support Israel, why would you want them in the Med or Atlantic? Apparently, there are two carriers and an LPD in the Gulf of Oman and thus close to Iran.

A carrier close to Israel would achieve nothing - other than providing Assad with arguments that the rebellion in his country was driven by the U.S.

The Carriers in the Gulf are there to support the Afghanistan Mission, and "courtesy patrols" of the Persian Gulf.


I don't think Israel would spefically decide based on an election to attack or not. The future ramifications would not be pleasent. However I do think Israel will attack at any time they see the opportunity,, or are provoked and will hopefully consult their allies prior to doing so
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Ken777
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 4:30 pm

Regardless of what Israel might want to do, I believe that they have learned some lessons from our disastrous invasion of Iraq. The Bush/Cheney Administration thought it would a quick "war" with little cost. It turned into a 10 year farce with 40,000+ Purple Hearts awarded and more Americans killed than we lost in 9/11.

I believe that farce has had an impact on the leaders of Israel and, much as they might hate it, the price we paid may be a deterrent.

I certainly hope so.
 
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DocLightning
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 5:21 pm

http://www.businessinsider.com/if-th...ke-nothing-ever-seen-before-2012-8

Just found this. No idea if any of it is true.

I am interested in the aftermath of such an attack.

1) Would Russia attack Israel? Russia-Iran relations have been pretty cozy.

2) Would this galvanize the Iranian people to support the current government or might it lead the way to an Iranian Spring?

3) What effect would this have on relations between Israel and its neighbors like Jordan, Egypt, etc.?

4) An attack on Iran may cause a local nuclear disaster with radioisotopes scattered all over the place. Would the Israelis also attack Bushehr? I hope they wouldn't be that foolish. Bushehr is closer to Kuwait City, Riyadh, Manama, Doha, Abu Dhabi, and Muscat than it is to Tehran.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 12):
Regardless of what Israel might want to do, I believe that they have learned some lessons from our disastrous invasion of Iraq. The Bush/Cheney Administration thought it would a quick "war" with little cost. It turned into a 10 year farce with 40,000+ Purple Hearts awarded and more Americans killed than we lost in 9/11.

The lesson to be taken is to do it the way that GHW Bush did it and not the way that GW Bush did it. Gulf I was a rapid strike that drove the Iraqis back from our ally. Gulf II was an attempt at "nation building." Remember that militaries do not build nations. Militaries exist to mess things up and break things (and to remind enemies that you have that ability). Much as diplomats make poor soldiers, weapons make poor construction tools.

If the Israelis attack, they will do a series of aerial and ballistic attacks. I very much doubt that they plan for a single pair of Israeli feet to touch Iranian soil. They want to set the Iranian nuclear program back by about two decades.
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EL-AL
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 5:23 pm

While most of the Israel/Iran talk is about the possible military action aginst Iran's nuclear program, you guys must not forget the reason: "Iran Supreme Leader: Israel will vanish from the 'landscape of geography'".

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomac...he-landscape-of-geography-1.458802

At the bottom line we have a country 70 times larger then Israel that promise time and time again to destroy my home, to kill my family and vanish my country from the face of earth. This country must not have an atom bomb, no matter what.
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 5:52 pm

Quoting EL-AL (Reply 14):
While most of the Israel/Iran talk is about the possible military action aginst Iran's nuclear program, you guys must not forget the reason: "Iran Supreme Leader: Israel will vanish from the 'landscape of geography'".

There is a lot of talk. I doubt that they would make a nuclear strike against an ally of the largest nuclear power in the world.

Quoting EL-AL (Reply 14):
This country must not have an atom bomb, no matter what.

I certainly agree with that. But let us not forget that they don't have a bomb. Even if they have the plutonium and tritium for one, it takes a long time to build. Then they have to waste one in a test. Then they need a delivery system. And the good news there is that there is no way to do a clandestine nuclear explosion.
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Tugger
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 5:57 pm

My thoughts are that Israel is trying the rattle the sabre as hard as possible to get everyone thinking that an attack is inevitable. I think they want to convince and embolden the militant fanatics within Iran (and their allies) to get them to attack in some way first (preemptively), to which they can respond decisively.

Not saying that Israel will not absolutely do on its own what it needs to do if it firmly believes it must do it but I also think they fully understand the politics of the whole issue too.

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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 6:05 pm

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 10):

If goods do not cross frontiers, soldiers will.

You should see the convoys of goods heading to Iran via Azerbaijan everyday, I've been pretty close to the border and seen them, hundreds of trucks everyday. More convoys go via Turkmenistan.
 
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 6:33 pm

Israel attacking Iran- Right now, if they continue to have this standoff, it's pretty much inevitable.

USA's participation? Toss-up. I have no idea if they will or not.


I personally think that if the US wants to re-vamp industry they should begin arms sales to relevant parties involved in this potential war. Heavy weaponry, aircraft, fuel, etc
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 6:45 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
1) Would Russia attack Israel? Russia-Iran relations have been pretty cozy.

As much as Russia seems to support countries the US doesn't, I doubt Russia would attack Israel directly... that would invite a war with the US which I'm sure neither side wants. I could see Russia supplying Iran though. (Not gonna comment on which side would be right or wrong)

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
2) Would this galvanize the Iranian people to support the current government or might it lead the way to an Iranian Spring?

I think it would strengthen the Iranian government. I think the current strategy, at least from the US's side, is to wait until an Iran revolt takes place (one much stronger than the one a few years ago) and once we're sure the rebels will win, supply the rebels and do airstrikes similar to Libya. Not sure if that is what Israel wants (or even if that's what the US is doing.)

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
3) What effect would this have on relations between Israel and its neighbors like Jordan, Egypt, etc.?

I don't think many Arab nations like Iran. They don't really like Israel either, so they might condemn Israel publicly but secretly want the demise of Iran (and/or Israel.)

Just my 2c. I wish Baroque was still with us... he'd have some good insight on the matter (RIP)  
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kaitak
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 7:32 pm

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 19):
I don't think many Arab nations like Iran. They don't really like Israel either, so they might condemn Israel publicly but secretly want the demise of Iran (and/or Israel.)

My thoughts exactly; recently, we've had the Saudis saying they would shoot down Israeli acft flying over their territory; my foot! They would view the destruction of the Iranian nuclear and military (and better still, political) infrastructure with no little amount of glee - same with all of the Arab Gulf states.

I'm not a military person, but I've always believed that if Israel attacks, it cannot be just an attack on nuclear facilites; it has to be a wide ranging attack, taking out their communications systems, command & control, as much of the political elite/ infrastructure as they can; basically, make sure that after the attack, Iran is insufficiently functioning as a viable entity to even think about responding. And of course, they need to make sure that they as prepared as possible for anything Hezbollah throws at them.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 18):
Israel attacking Iran- Right now, if they continue to have this standoff, it's pretty much inevitable.

It seems to me that, all of a sudden, the jungle drums have been banging a lot more loudly over the past week or so. I wonder if this might be because Israel has obtained new intelligence as to Iran's capability?
 
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 8:00 pm

Quoting EL-AL (Reply 14):
At the bottom line we have a country 70 times larger then Israel that promise time and time again to destroy my home, to kill my family and vanish my country from the face of earth.

No, you have a country 70 times larger than Israel with a slightly unhinged figurehead who makes ridiculous public statements about Israel.
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kaitak
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 8:24 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 21):
No, you have a country 70 times larger than Israel with a slightly unhinged figurehead who makes ridiculous public statements about Israel.

In fairness, Khamenei is more than a figurehead - and that's not the kind of person you want to having the nuclear button at his fingertips. We need to understand the Israelis better. Virtually all Israelis of (continental) European descent will have had a relative who was lost to the holocaust; that must weigh very heavily on the Israeli psyche. I don't particularly like Netanyahu, but as PM of Israel, he has a responsibility to protect his country and his people and when they come across someone of this kind who makes aggressive and vitriolic comments about their country and the country they represents is developing the ability to develop nuclear weapons, then you make sure that this threat is challenged head on and if necessary, eradicated.

Let's also not forget that with Assad out of the way (not yet, but shortly), the political chessboard in the M/E changes and with no regional friends, Iran's need to have a nuclear weapon becomes all the more urgent.
 
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 10:40 pm

Quoting casinterest (Reply 11):
I don't think Israel would spefically decide based on an election to attack or not. The future ramifications would not be pleasent. However I do think Israel will attack at any time they see the opportunity,, or are provoked and will hopefully consult their allies prior to doing so

I agree, and will ask a pointed question: would an Israeli attack actually achieve anything ? Iran is known to produce super-hard concrete (I've mentioned this before) which can withstand 40-50,000 psi shearing force. Normal concrete is about 11-12,000 and "reinforced" concrete perhaps 15,,000. Bury that under 30-50 metres of diret and would a bunker buster work ? Would a battlefield nuke work ? Good to know these thnigs before charging off with the light brigade.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):

1) Would Russia attack Israel? Russia-Iran relations have been pretty cozy.

Putin would have to think Israel would reply, perhasp with a "demonstration" nuclear event, in his own back yard. Once Israel started building their own gadgets and Jericho II missiles, that's when Russia started paying attention to Israel.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
4) An attack on Iran may cause a local nuclear disaster with radioisotopes scattered all over the place. Would the Israelis also attack Bushehr?

I'm not at all sure the radioisotopes would be a big problem, there'd be bigger ones.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
If the Israelis attack, they will do a series of aerial and ballistic attacks. I very much doubt that they plan for a single pair of Israeli feet to touch Iranian soil. They want to set the Iranian nuclear program back by about two decades.

I've said before, if Iran wants nuclear weapons I think it's their sovereign right. Look at India and remains of Pakistan, sworn enemies, no first use. Having them actually imposes a form of discipline on your political class.

Quoting EL-AL (Reply 14):
At the bottom line we have a country 70 times larger then Israel that promise time and time again to destroy my home, to kill my family and vanish my country from the face of earth. This country must not have an atom bomb, no matter what

"No matter what" - at ANY price ? And I believe an accurate translation of Khamenei's statement is more along the lines of "the Zionist entity will disappear". Perhaps he was referring to a one-state solution: Palestine.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 15):
There is a lot of talk. I doubt that they would make a nuclear strike against an ally of the largest nuclear power in the world

  

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 15):
Then they have to waste one in a test.

Not any more. Look up "zero energy test".
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Quoting DocLightning (Reply 15):
Then they need a delivery system.

They've launched a couple of satellites ...

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 15):
And the good news there is that there is no way to do a clandestine nuclear explosion.

Israel and South Africa seem to have done one in the 70s. Still a debate about it.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 19):
I think it would strengthen the Iranian government

Me too. Easier to blame the foreign devils for you problems.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 19):
I wish Baroque was still with us...

Me too.  
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flyingturtle
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 10:44 pm

What worries me also is that the Israeli government has a strong belief in military action. But they have no plan B whatsoever in case the operation doesn't achieve its goals. Then, the UN, the US and the whole international community has to save Israels collective a$$es again.

We've seen it in 2006, the Lebanon war. The latest conflict in the Gaza strip. And the Turkish ship recently.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 15):
I certainly agree with that. But let us not forget that they don't have a bomb. Even if they have the plutonium and tritium for one, it takes a long time to build. Then they have to waste one in a test. Then they need a delivery system. And the good news there is that there is no way to do a clandestine nuclear explosion.

Yes. I've read an estimate of 20 million $ to build one nuclear bomb, and it can be done quite clandestinely, but never mind radiation safety, proper engineering work, reliability, a delivery system, a testing series, and quite a few things more...

There are really more worrisome things in the world than Iran. Like homelessness and unemployment in Israel itself. This is killing people every day.

Quoting KiwiRob (Reply 17):
You should see the convoys of goods heading to Iran via Azerbaijan everyday, I've been pretty close to the border and seen them, hundreds of trucks everyday. More convoys go via Turkmenistan.

Yes. Why drive Iran to do prosperous trade with Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, not to mention China and Russia?

In the days before the revolution, El Al's most profitable flights were those to Tehran. At least that's what I've read here...



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redflyer
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 10:45 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
1) Would Russia attack Israel? Russia-Iran relations have been pretty cozy.

Not a chance. Russia's leadership would not get involved directly in a Middle East conflict, and they would fear the backlash of their citizenry.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
2) Would this galvanize the Iranian people to support the current government or might it lead the way to an Iranian Spring?

Most citizens have a tendency to support their government when their homeland is attacked, in particular if it results in large numbers of civilian casualties. The Israeli's are aware of this and would take great pains to limit any chance of large-scale civilian casualties. If they can succeed, the Iranian regime could face a backlash from its population because then they would wonder why they squandered so many resources in this nuclear game that resulted in being humiliated by the Israeli's (that's assuming the Israeli's are successful).

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
3) What effect would this have on relations between Israel and its neighbors like Jordan, Egypt, etc.?

In public, Jordan and Egypt would do a lot of saber rattling and condemnation. In private, they will be thrilled. Other than Syria, there are not too many countries in the region that like the current Iranian regime and are in fact terrified of their nuclear ambitions.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
4) An attack on Iran may cause a local nuclear disaster with radioisotopes scattered all over the place.

That is the one thing the Israeli's will be very careful about. It would do no one, in particular them, any good if they contaminate wide swaths of territory with radiation. They will become hated throughout the world (more than they already are) with no chance of public redemption for generations to come. Look for any strikes to be targeted against infrastructure facilities and resources that support their nuclear program.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
Remember that militaries do not build nations.

In general, that is a fairly accurate statement, but history will show that militaries have built nations in the past. Just look at the immediate post-war years in Japan and Germany. It was the military that kept order long enough for civilian rule to take root.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
Militaries exist to mess things up and break things (and to remind enemies that you have that ability).

I love it when people make quotes like this. It's actually the politicians that mess things up and break them. The military is just another tool of a political ruling class. Without the decision of a politician, militaries have no orders to go off to war.
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TheCol
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 11:10 pm

Highly unlikely. Netanyahu and Barak have a mountain of political and military opposition against a strike on Iran. Since Netanyahu is already in the dog house, this can be seen as a last ditch attempt to save his fragile coalition. Unlike most countries in the West, the people of Israel look to the wisdom and leadership of their military brass. If the IDF Generals continue to speak out against a strike on Iran, there won't be much support for it from the rest of the country.

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 3):
Israel will attack some underground nuclear facilities, pound them for one week straight with various bombs and cruise missiles, and two years later, the Israeli PM will declare: "They are STILL working on nuclear weapons!"

WTF?

Where are you getting this from?

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
1) Would Russia attack Israel? Russia-Iran relations have been pretty cozy.

Putin isn't that stupid. Russia has more to gain by sitting back and profiteering off the large scale regional conflict that would ensue.
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scbriml
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 11:23 pm

Quoting kaitak (Reply 22):
In fairness, Khamenei is more than a figurehead

He is, but I was talking about Ahmadinejad!

Khamenei has actually done a good job in trying to keep Iran stable and, as far as I'm aware, has never made any public statements about Israel. Indeed, he even issued a fatwa saying the production of nuclear weapons was forbidden under Islam.
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flyingturtle
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 11:24 pm

Quoting TheCol (Reply 26):
WTF?

Where are you getting this from?

Anybody with half a brain can arrive at this conclusion. Time and again, Israel has said that a military operation will solve a specific "problem" for once and for all. Which didn't turn out as desired.

Hezbollah is still alive and well after the 2006 war. They just do not make the headlines now.



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zanl188
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Thu Aug 16, 2012 11:48 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 15):
Then they have to waste one in a test. Then they need a delivery system. And the good news there is that there is no way to do a clandestine nuclear explosion.

If their intent is truly to hit the Israelis why would they give up the advantage of surprise by testing? Even if it fizzles it's still a massive "dirty bomb". Objective achieved either way... scary thought
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TheCommodore
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Fri Aug 17, 2012 12:39 am

Quoting comorin (Thread starter):
I read an interesting piece on alternet about how Israel is likely to attack Iran in the next12 weeks (before the US election).

Nothing more than hot air, and a lot of it !

Quoting comorin (Thread starter):
Will this act be catastrophic to the region?

Absolutely it will be catastrophic for the region. A region in which, Israel is a part of.

If Israel attacks, they better make sure as all hell the wind is blowing the right way on the day.   


Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 3):
Israel has already struggled with the revolution in Egypt.

And virtually all its neighbors at some point in time.

Quoting N537FX (Reply 6):
Iran wouldn't dare attack US targets or interests,

Exactly... storm in a tea cup

Quoting comorin (Reply 9):
Also, you cant attack a nation of 70m people and not kick up a hornet's nest...while sanctions can help turn Iranians against their rulers, an attack would unite them, undoing years of Western foreign policy.

Sanction have been shown time and time again to have very limited effect at turning people against Governments, in fact the opposite can often be the case.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
1) Would Russia attack Israel? Russia-Iran relations have been pretty cozy.

I think that could well be a possibility

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
2) Would this galvanize the Iranian people to support the current government or might it lead the way to an Iranian Spring?

Generally I think it galvanize support for the current regime

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
3) What effect would this have on relations between Israel and its neighbors like Jordan, Egypt, etc.?

Not sure about Jordan, but Egypt would be a different kettle of fish as the current relationship is not what you would call solid at this point in time

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
4) An attack on Iran may cause a local nuclear disaster with radioisotopes scattered all over the place. Would the Israelis also attack Bushehr? I hope they wouldn't be that foolish. Bushehr is closer to Kuwait City, Riyadh, Manama, Doha, Abu Dhabi, and Muscat than it is to Tehran.

Lets hope that Israel is not that selfish, that they would want to cause untold collateral damage throughout the entire middle east region. But having said that, I think Israel will do what IT wants at the end of the day, and bugger everyone else !

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 19):
Just my 2c. I wish Baroque was still with us... he'd have some good insight on the matter (RIP)

Yes, he is missed for these forums.

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 24):
Then, the UN, the US and the whole international community has to save Israels collective a$$es again.

Not to sure about the US, as they always seem to side with the Israelis no matter what, but I do think the EU is becoming increasingly fed up with Israels shenanigans, and they way they continually thumb there nose up at UN resolutions regarding settlements.

Quoting redflyer (Reply 25):
They will become hated throughout the world (more than they already are) with no chance of public redemption for generations to come.

I would like to agree with you, however Israel has shown its self time and time again to be a selfish nation, with only its on well being on its mind.
“At first, they'll only dislike what you say, but the more correct you start sounding the more they'll dislike you.”
 
sfbdude
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Fri Aug 17, 2012 1:56 am

Quoting EL-AL (Reply 14):
While most of the Israel/Iran talk is about the possible military action aginst Iran's nuclear program, you guys must not forget the reason: "Iran Supreme Leader: Israel will vanish from the 'landscape of geography'".

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomac...he-landscape-of-geography-1.458802

At the bottom line we have a country 70 times larger then Israel that promise time and time again to destroy my home, to kill my family and vanish my country from the face of earth. This country must not have an atom bomb, no matter what.

I think you (and most other people) are taking this whole "wiping off the map" thing a little too literal. It even states in the link you provided that they want to get rid of the Israeli, or in this case zionist, regime and he has said it many times that's what he meant. Its pretty hard to return a piece of land to a people when you just got finished nuking the hell out of it and everyone inside of it (including the very people you're trying to liberate). None of my family and relatives feel threatened by this and it never even comes up in any of our conversations unless I bring it up.
 
ltbewr
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Fri Aug 17, 2012 1:56 am

I think much of this is more about for domestic consumption in Israel by the right wing parties that control government there and want to stay in power but also to put pressure on Iran who has supported Hezbollah and other enemies of Israel in Lebanon and currently, Syria. Let us not forget that within the last decade, Israel has bombed BEY airport to shut down support from Iran of those hostile to Israel and decades ago bombed a nuke facility in Iraq. Let's face it, Israel has a bad track record.

Of course, the world let India, Pakistan and Israel have nuke weapons so why are we saying NO to Iran?

The easy way out would be for Europe to not buy a drop of Iranian oil and not allow transfers of payments for oil, but that would just jack up the price of oil for everyone and probably Russia and China would just take up the slack as would continue payments. Hopeully such a cut off would make Iran give up their Nuclear ambitions, but probably wouldn't work anyway.

All this over a tiny country who's main reason for existence is a bunch of religious shrines and to protect a particular faith.
 
Quokkas
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Fri Aug 17, 2012 3:24 am

An attack on Iran by Israel would have little effect on relations with her neighbours. Indeed, I might suggest that an attack would have to have at least tacit support or connivance.

Attacking Syria does not require flying over any one else's airspace: attacking Iran would. Jordan and Iraq or Jordan and Saudi Arabia are the shortest routes and even allowing for a quick flight there, the aircraft would still have to make their way home. This is only possible if the Jordanian, Iraqi and Saudi governments agree to turn a blind eye and allow free passage.

Sure, in the media the Arab States may huff and puff. But that would be purely for local consumption. In practice they might rub their hands with glee as a regional rival for power is weakened.
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zkojq
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Fri Aug 17, 2012 3:58 am

There was this exact same speculation in the runup to the last US election. Just hot air IMO. If there is war however, I hope that whichever nation attacks first looses and looses very badly.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 19):
I wish Baroque was still with us... he'd have some good insight on the matter (RIP)

Agreed.
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comorin
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Fri Aug 17, 2012 4:38 am

As the OP of this thread, and in accordance with the sentiments expressed, I would like to dedicate this thread to the memory of our irreplaceable friend Baroque, who brought so much heart to this forum.
 
BMI727
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Fri Aug 17, 2012 5:18 am

Quoting comorin (Thread starter):
Will this act be catastrophic to the region?

Might make gas prices jump, but probably not much worse than that.

Quoting comorin (Thread starter):
What will the US and EU do?

See how many shekels we can make selling weapons to the Israelis. And make sure that other Arab powers don't get their undies in a bunch, but I they aren't too keen on the idea of a nuclear armed Iran either, so that may be no big trick.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
1) Would Russia attack Israel? Russia-Iran relations have been pretty cozy.

Not a chance. Frankly I don't see any way that any nation's attack on Israel would not provoke a significant American response.

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 23):
I've said before, if Iran wants nuclear weapons I think it's their sovereign right.

Sovereignty only goes as far as you can enforce it.
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PHX787
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Fri Aug 17, 2012 5:28 am

Quoting kaitak (Reply 20):
It seems to me that, all of a sudden, the jungle drums have been banging a lot more loudly over the past week or so. I wonder if this might be because Israel has obtained new intelligence as to Iran's capability?

Yeah I think that the more that Israel gets in supposed "intelligence" the closer to war they are.

I'm neither confirming nor denying what they're saying, I just wish that the two sides would just stop bickering. One is blasting them accusing the other of being the next hitler, and the other is accusing the one about sucking the proverbial schlong of the U.S. when in reality both sides have internal and external issues that need to be fixed.
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MadameConcorde
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Fri Aug 17, 2012 6:35 am

You all seem to have forgotten one thing...

Are Israel really capable of bombing a country which has the oldest and also one of the most numerous Jewish communities?

If Israel attacks Iran it also means thousands of Jews will probably die.


Quote:
The Jewish community of Persia, modern-day Iran, is one of the oldest in the Diaspora, and its historical roots reach back to the 6th century B.C.E., the time of the First Temple. Their history in the pre-Islamic period is intertwined with that of the Jews of neighboring Babylon. Cyrus, the first of the Archemid dynasty, conquered Babylon in 539 B.C.E. and permitted the Jewish exiles to return to the Land of Israel, bringing the First Exile to an end.

read more:
http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/...source/anti-semitism/iranjews.html


What Iran’s Jews Say
...
Yet perhaps 25,000 Jews live on in Iran, the largest such community, along with Turkey’s, in the Muslim Middle East. There are more than a dozen synagogues in Tehran; here in Esfahan a handful caters to about 1,200 Jews, descendants of an almost 3,000-year-old community.

read more:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/23/opinion/23cohen.html?_r=1


Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: Jews in Iran
Iran is home to the biggest population of Jews in the Middle East outside Israel

Iran is home to the biggest population of Jews in the Middle East outside Israel. While the community faces limited discrimination, it is largely free to exercise the same rights as Muslims enjoy in the Islamic republic.
...
Maurice Motamed, the country's Jewish MP, has criticised Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's denials of the Holocaust but is otherwise a staunch supporter of the radical president's foreign and security policies. "I am an Iranian first and a Jew second," he said.

read more:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...moud-Ahmadinejad-Jews-in-Iran.html


Iran's proud but discreet Jews
By Frances Harrison
BBC News, Tehran

Although Iran and Israel are bitter enemies, few know that Iran is home to the largest number of Jews anywhere in the Middle East outside Israel.

About 25,000 Jews live in Iran and most are determined to remain no matter what the pressures - as proud of their Iranian culture as of their Jewish roots.
...
He says the father of Iran's revolution, Imam Khomeini, recognised Jews as a religious minority that should be protected.

read more:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5367892.stm


The Jews of Iran are Far Better Off Than Palestinians of Gaza
01.09.2010

There are 25,000 Jews in Iran, which is the largest Jewish population in the Middle East outside Israel. Iranian Jews are not persecuted or abused, in fact, they are protected under the Iranian constitution. They are free to practice their religion and to vote in elections. They are not stopped and searched at checkpoints, are not brutalized by an army of occupation and are not confined in a densely populated penal colony (Gaza) where they are deprived of the basic means of subsistence. Iranian Jews live in dignity and enjoy the benefits of citizenship.

and there is more in this article...

The allegations made by the North American State Department were condemned by Iranian Jews. The Association of Jews in Tehran said in a statement, "We Iranian Jews condemn the statements by the U.S. State Department on Iranian religious minorities, we announced that we are completely free to perform our religious duties and not feel any restriction to perform our religious rituals."

Who should we believe: Jews who actually live in Iran or troublemakers in the American State Department?

There are six kosher butchers, 11 synagogues and several Jewish schools in Tehran. No employee of Ahmadinejad or any other Iranian government agency made any attempt to close these facilities. Never. Iranian Jews are free to travel (or move) to Israel if they so wish. They are not trapped by an army of occupation. They are not deprived of food or medicine.

read more:
http://english.pravda.ru/hotspots/co...jews_of_iran_are_far_better_off-0/


And what if some of the Iranian nuclear scientists were Jews? It is quite possible after all.

Are Israel ready and willing to bomb Iran while being perfectly aware of all this?

     Wow!
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Kiwirob
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Sat Aug 18, 2012 5:21 am

Quoting EL-AL (Reply 14):
destroy my home, to kill my family and vanish my country from the face of earth

Sounds remarkably like what you lot did to the Palestinians, as they say you reap what you sow.
 
kaitak
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Sat Aug 18, 2012 9:33 am

Another aspect of this whole issue is what Romney said to the Israelis; what was said behind closed doors. It's no secret that the Israelis would love to see anyone but Obama in the White House and their relationships with Republican administrations has been far stronger than those with Democrat presidents. For Netanyahu and Romney, an Israeli attack on Iran would help the latter politically. I think there are serious issues here; could Romney - who, let's face it, is very inexperienced in foreign diplomacy (as some of his utterings in his European trip proved) - have "encouraged" Bibi to accelerate things, because they have accelerated quite a bit since his visit. I don't think Bibi would have needed too much encouragement, of course! However, it does the raise the question as to whether a prospective president could have encouraged another government into military action which at some stage in the future might involve the US. THAT is a serious issue. Were there "one on one" meetings between the two? Did Romney give (or was he cajoled or pressurised into giving) any commitment to Netanyahu, which the latter could have interpreted as "go for it" and that the US would support him if/when the Republicans were returned to office?
 
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MillwallSean
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Sat Aug 18, 2012 9:50 am

Quoting kaitak (Reply 22):

Let's also not forget that with Assad out of the way (not yet, but shortly), the political chessboard in the M/E changes and with no regional friends, Iran's need to have a nuclear weapon becomes all the more urgent

Somehow whats been missed is that Iran has another friend in the middle east. Its called Iraq and they are a closer friend than Syria has ever been.
most of iraqs present leadership spend decades in Iran during Saddams rule. they might not be persians but they are shia and they have deep loyalty to iran, a country that gave them refuge during the hard times when Saddam ruled and crushed any shia religious leadership ambition with an ironfist.

Somehow most Americans and its media tend to have missed that when Saddam was toppled the people that came in his place where the ones who had throughout the decades had been funded and sheltered by the Iranians.
Al Maliki the present prime minster of Iraq spent more than 20 years in Irans service. Living in teheran and then living in Damascus working for Iran and handling its connections with hezbollah. his party the most influential in Iraq are funded and have historically been funded by Iran.
If you read any middle eastern press they will say Iran is Al Malikis master and he serves the purpose of teheran not Baghdad.

http://english.alarabiya.net/views/2012/05/02/211691.html
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010.../iran-iraq-maliki-ahmadinejad-sadr
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/06...lies-to-aid-iraq-embattled-leader/
http://www.infowars.com/how-maliki-a...arted-the-u-s-on-troop-withdrawal/
http://articles.cnn.com/2011-12-28/o...president-tariq-irgc?_s=PM:OPINION
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011...uard-corps-at-white-house-meeting/

I know its Wikipedia but gives a rough idea of the man and his party
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nouri_al-Maliki
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Dawa_Party
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MadameConcorde
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Sat Aug 18, 2012 10:48 am

Quds Day

Iranian President Ahmadinejad: "The existence of the Zionist regime is an insult to all humanity"

note how he avoids naming Israel directly, always referring to the Zionist regime (there's always some misunderstandings in the translations from Farsi).

"You want a new Middle East? We do too, but in the new Middle East ... there will be no trace of the American presence and the Zionists," he said.
Mr Ahmadinejad called Israel "a corrupt, anti-human organised minority group standing up to all divine values".
"Today, confronting the existence of the fabricated Zionist regime is in fact protecting the rights and dignity of all human beings," he said, with a black and white scarf, which many Palestinians wear, around his neck.

http://news.sky.com/story/973811/ahm...nejad-israel-an-insult-to-humanity

So... my question is... why are Israel waiting all this time to launch their attack on Iran? Are they afraid of going at it along without the support of the U.S. the U.K. and France? Why is it taking them so long to attack?

Do they really fear they'll get beaten-up flat out by the Iranians and their potential allies?

It's been "hear... hear"... but no taking action in the end. How many years now?
Are Israel just agitating a red handkerchief to the Iranians and threatening them while they will not dare to attack them?

   

[Edited 2012-08-18 03:55:44]
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OA260
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Sat Aug 18, 2012 11:32 am

Interesting Sky News report. On right hand side under higlights section . :

Video: Israelis Prepare For Potential Iran Conflict

http://news.sky.com/world

Seems like they are getting ready with the handing out of gas masks.

Personally the world would be better without a nuclear Iran and a nuclear Israel. They are nearly as bad as eachother to be honest. Both countries are guilty of gross human rights violations and mass killings.
 
flyingturtle
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Sat Aug 18, 2012 11:38 am

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 42):
So... my question is... why are Israel waiting all this time to launch their attack on Iran? Are they afraid of going at it along without the support of the U.S. the U.K. and France? Why is it taking them so long to attack?

Hmmm.... hmmmmm....... because it isn't worth the costs? In Israel, we have social unrest. Soldiers are meagerly paid. Mr. Ahmadinejad is full of rhetoric, but there is no substantial threat to Israel.

If you say Israel is in deadly danger, you're insulting its military capabilities.

Another reason is that when you start a war, you've already used all your gunpowder. Your options are drastically reduced now, and your only hope rests on your armed forces and their luck. There is no "Uh, sorry, we tried to destroy you but in hindsight, we should have better talked to you. We'll do it better next time."

What then, after the first rounds of airstrikes haven't really crippled the nuclear facilities? What if the attacks only delay the Iranian nuclear programme for 3-4 years? You need a plan for the time after the war plan. We've seen that in Iraq.


David
Keeping calm is terrorism against those who want to live in fear.
 
MadameConcorde
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Sat Aug 18, 2012 12:20 pm

It is not just the Iranian clerics and President Ahmadinejad... they've got Israel-hating "friends" in other places which we hardly hear about.

Prominent Saudi Cleric: "Holocaust Is Exaggeration... Jews Wreak Destruction, Wage War, Deceive, & Extort"
http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/...ews-Consume-Blood-Of-Children.html

that same Saudi cleric again:
Saudi Cleric Salman Al-Odeh: Jews Use Human Blood for Passover Matzos
http://www.memritv.org/clip/en/3536.htm

and their Egyptian counterpart:
Egyptian Cleric Sallah Sultan: People Worldwide "Thirst for the Blood of the Jews"
http://www.memritv.org/clip/en/3523.htm


I wonder why the attention is always on Pres. Ahmadinejad? He is a scarecrow allright but by August 13 he will have ended his second presiential term and he will be out of the way.

and this:

Retired Egyptian General Abd Al-Hamid Umran Calls for an Egyptian Nuclear Program: We Should Follow the Iranian Model and Deceive the International Community
http://www.thememriblog.org/iran/blog_personal/en/40704.htm

With Dr Morsi in power, it could very well happen. Israel will have to prepare to attack Egypt next.

Quoting OA260 (Reply 43):
the world would be better without a nuclear Iran and a nuclear Israel.

Iran has signed the nuclear proliferation treaty. Israel always refused to sign the NPT.
Makes a whole world of difference. Also Iran has not tested any nuclear weapons to this day.
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scbriml
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Sat Aug 18, 2012 12:20 pm

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 38):
Are Israel ready and willing to bomb Iran while being perfectly aware of all this?

Yes, because any attack would be targeted against Iran's nuclear facilities. The Israelis are not going to carpet bomb down-town Tehran.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
 
flyingturtle
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Sat Aug 18, 2012 12:30 pm

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 45):
Prominent Saudi Cleric: "Holocaust Is Exaggeration... Jews Wreak Destruction, Wage War, Deceive, & Extort"
http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/...ews-Consume-Blood-Of-Children.html

that same Saudi cleric again:
Saudi Cleric Salman Al-Odeh: Jews Use Human Blood for Passover Matzos
http://www.memritv.org/clip/en/3536.htm

and their Egyptian counterpart:
Egyptian Cleric Sallah Sultan: People Worldwide "Thirst for the Blood of the Jews"
http://www.memritv.org/clip/en/3523.htm

I have read - in Switzerland - a Christian magazine that said that all Muslims were descendants of the Devil himself. We aren't impartial either. And when it comes to Israel, German politicians are all too often guilt-ridden yes-sayers instead of real friends that are capable of stopping somebody else before they commit a grave error.

Israel will be 0.01% safer after they have taken out Iran's nuclear facilities. Israel will be respected 99.9% less if they do that.


David
Keeping calm is terrorism against those who want to live in fear.
 
MadameConcorde
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Sat Aug 18, 2012 12:35 pm

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 47):
Israel will be 0.01% safer after they have taken out Iran's nuclear facilities. I

raises more questions:

1/ why then attack Iran?

2/ who will pay for the war? Israel and rhe US. are broke - we know it - and so are the UK. and France.
There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
 
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OA260
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RE: Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?

Sat Aug 18, 2012 12:43 pm

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 45):
Iran has signed the nuclear proliferation treaty. Israel always refused to sign the NPT.
Makes a whole world of difference. Also Iran has not tested any nuclear weapons to this day.

Signing something and having a different agenda behind closed doors makes a world of difference too. Im no Israel fan but Im not naive with regards to Iran either .

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