PHX787
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When Will A Libertarian Be President?

Fri Sep 07, 2012 3:49 am

This is gonna make SRBmod smile  

As u know we are pretty much stuck right now with a 2-party system, as evident by Ron Paul's allegiance- or whatever you call it- to the Republicans.

But alas, this election it's probably not gonna be. Even I will vote republican this year, as I usually do. I vote for the person more likely to make it into office.


But we do see a sizable amount of libertarians this year, which could have a problem for both Obama and Romney.

IIRC The republican party in the 1800s wasn't a main player until the 1850s, and elected a president 10 years later. Do you guys think 10 years from now, we'll finally have a libertarian in office? and what do you think will happen if we do?

I don't think there's any libertarians in office around the world right now.


Thoughts ?
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jpetekyxmd80
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RE: When Will A Libertarian Be President?

Fri Sep 07, 2012 4:06 am

An independent (in this case libertarian) candidate always has the ability to win an election. Particularly with President, a strong and popular independent could successfully contend if they had deep pockets. 3rd party candidates have made some noise in the past with this role. Individuals always have that ability. However, parties don't. If you're looking for a legitimate Libertarian party to take hold, that will only happen if it supplants the Republican party within the span of a decade or so. Libertarians only hope of being a permanent political power is to gradually take over the reigns of the Republican party until they are the agenda setters.

But at the present time anyone affiliated with the heart of the Libertarians has a long way to go to be palatable to a national election. This mystery person who could pull off this coup is likely to be a well known, likeable, and rich independent first candidate, who likely has a strong 'libertarian streak'.
The Best Care in the Air, 1984-2009
 
seb146
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RE: When Will A Libertarian Be President?

Fri Sep 07, 2012 6:04 am

Quoting PHX787 (Thread starter):
Do you guys think 10 years from now, we'll finally have a libertarian in office?

Short answer: No.

Both major parties have so much money invested, they will not allow any other party to play. Period. I would love to see more parties and more voices heard in the political process. But, that is not what the political process is anymore. Maybe as late as the mid 1980s it could have happened. But, until money is taken out of the election process, no other party will ever be allowed in.
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Superfly
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RE: When Will A Libertarian Be President?

Fri Sep 07, 2012 7:16 am

As long as we have environmental extremist, feminist, Bible-thumpers, Islamic apologist, pro-Israeli settlement supporters, United Nations involvement, green-tec advocates and other special interest groups, there will NEVER be a Libertarian President.
If there were to be one, I would hope to be the first one!  
Bring back the Concorde
 
srbmod
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RE: When Will A Libertarian Be President?

Fri Sep 07, 2012 9:52 am

Quoting PHX787 (Thread starter):
IIRC The republican party in the 1800s wasn't a main player until the 1850s, and elected a president 10 years later. Do you guys think 10 years from now, we'll finally have a libertarian in office? and what do you think will happen if we do?

The Republicans started out as an anti-slavery party and also came around at the time the Whig party had all but disappeared partially due to the issue of slavery within the party's platform combined with the death of the leading figures within the party. They centered themselves on a major and dividing issue in the country at the time and that's what got Lincoln into office in 1860 and his election was one of the triggers for Southern states to secede from the Union.

One thing to remember is that years ago it was easier for third parties to get on the ballot for elections and actually have a chance at making some gains in the hopes of becoming a major party as for many years there wasn't a strong second major party and there seemed to be a new party pop up every decade trying to take that spot. Unfortunately parties like the Libertarians face an uphill battle in many states just to get their presidential candidates on the ballot due to the restrictive ballot access laws in those states. In some states, these laws were passed to keep Socialist Party and Communist Party candidates off of the ballot. In others, it was to make it harder for the Democrats or Republicans to field candidates because the other party controlled the government in that state (One thing to remember is that for many years, especially in the South, the Democrats politically were closer to modern-day Republicans.). As long as the Libertarians (or any third party for that matter) have trouble fielding candidates for office on the local and state levels, as well as the US House and Senate (Here in Georgia, they've got automatic ballot access for some state elected offices as well as US Senate and the President and that is based on their polling numbers in elections.) they will never be able to seriously contend for the White House. If I wanted to run for a position like county commissioner where I live as a Libertarian, it would be a tough slog to get the necessary signatures (Of course one would have to make sure to get well over the minimum needed since many signatures get invalidated which seems to be a common practice used to keep third party candidates off the ballot.) to get on the ballot. It's easier in many states to run as a write-in candidate than it is to get on the ballot as a third party candidate.

Another problem is that the mainstream media pretty much ignores the candidates of third parties and what little coverage they usually give is not always positive. Even the companies that conduct the political surveys tend to ignore the third party candidates (either by ignoring all of them or lumping them into a single category). There hasn't been a third party candidate in a Presidential debate since Ross Perot in 1992. The groups that puts together the Presidential/Vice Presidential debates has made it so that it is harder for a third party candidate to get to participate in these debates and that makes it even harder for them to get their message out.

As much as I would love to see a Libertarian administration, the chances of it happening in 10 years or even 20 years are slim to none. Even if a high-profile Democrat or Republican were to jump ship to the LP, that wouldn't guarantee election success for the LP (Case in point, Bob Barr in 2008.).
 
smittyone
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RE: When Will A Libertarian Be President?

Fri Sep 07, 2012 10:17 am

Quoting Superfly (Reply 3):
If there were to be one, I would hope to be the first one!  

I'd vote for you just to see what the motorcade looked like.

Quoting srbmod (Reply 4):
As much as I would love to see a Libertarian administration, the chances of it happening in 10 years or even 20 years are slim to none.

Agreed. I think the Libertarians' basic premise - reducing the involvement of govt in people's lives, and thus its power - is so dangerous to the personal interests of 'career politicians' that getting any traction in mainstream political circles is very unlikely. It's like being the one atheist guy in a large group of people from different religions. The one thing they all can agree on is that they don't like you LOL.
 
rfields5421
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RE: When Will A Libertarian Be President?

Fri Sep 07, 2012 10:29 am

Quoting PHX787 (Thread starter):
Do you guys think 10 years from now, we'll finally have a libertarian in office?

Sure, right after the Winter Olympics are held in Miami, with skiing events on Mount Trashmore right off I-95.

Seriously, in 10 years, we might see enough libertarians elected to have noticeable influence in a couple state legislatures. Maybe in 20 years, a couple governors elected. Maybe in 30 years have a significant presence in Congress and be a serious contender for President.

The Libertarian's biggest hurdle is their lack of a strong central agenda and leadership. They have to communicate that agenda and goals to the public throughout the entire year.

Political power in the US starts at the local levels - with school boards, city councils, etc. The Libertarians need to get people into those bodies to start building their base and their power. Only when they have built that grass roots political structure can they aim for higher office with any ability to enact policy.

Frankly, they should focus on radio talk shows and getting a 'fair and balanced' tv 'news' network going to promote their agenda.

It has worked in the past 25 years.
 
cmf
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RE: When Will A Libertarian Be President?

Fri Sep 07, 2012 1:28 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Thread starter):
Do you guys think 10 years from now, we'll finally have a libertarian in office?

No

The country isn't stupid enough to do that. Libertarianism is a beautiful idea but it is no more practical than communism.
Don’t repeat earlier generations mistakes. Learn history for a better future.
 
slider
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RE: When Will A Libertarian Be President?

Fri Sep 07, 2012 2:46 pm

I am a libertarian and a conservative.

Have been since 1996 or so in earnest.

I don't believe--sadly--that a third party candidate can realistically win the WH ever in this country, not the way the deck is stacked from a primary, debate, fundraising and lobbyist standpoint. The entire bastardized system is predicated upon Republican vs Democrat and, all the pious speeches notwithstanding, there's little difference in their DEEDS.

Moreover, as a Libertarian with a capital L, the party still has a terrible image as a fringe pro-marijuana and foreign policy xenophobia group. The truth is far from that, and while I like Gary Johnson A LOT, he doesn't get the audience and the podium he needs to elucidate it well. Really, libertarians miss Harry Browne....God how I miss that man.

Where I think libertarianism will flourish is in the continued works of the Tea Party....a massive laser-like focus on individual liberty, small government, and--most importantly--explaining WHY those are important and in very real ways teaching Americans why a return to that is critical. The Republicans talk a big game here but fail to deliver and let the social right dominate too much.

But there are a LOT of republican/libertarian types now coming to the forefront and making inroads against the country club blueblood RINOs that have had party control for too long. THAT is where I see the biggest opportunitites--to reform the Repub party to where it should be organically.
 
bjorn14
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RE: When Will A Libertarian Be President?

Fri Sep 07, 2012 2:56 pm

Quoting jpetekyxmd80 (Reply 1):
If you're looking for a legitimate Libertarian party to take hold, that will only happen if it supplants the Republican party within the span of a decade or so.

Maybe a charismatic Libertarian who was elected Governor/Senator/Rep. in a small to medium size state and IF both Dem. and Rep. Presidential candidates are exciting as wet noodles.

Quoting Superfly (Reply 3):
I would hope to be the first one!

There 'fly I gave you the recipe for success but you'll have to move back to the US right away to get that 14-year clock ticking again.
"I want to know the voice of God the rest is just details" --A. Einstein
 
fr8mech
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RE: When Will A Libertarian Be President?

Fri Sep 07, 2012 8:15 pm

Quoting slider (Reply 8):
But there are a LOT of republican/libertarian types now coming to the forefront and making inroads against the country club blueblood RINOs that have had party control for too long. THAT is where I see the biggest opportunitites--to reform the Repub party to where it should be organically.

I agree. The Libertarians won't win the White House (or any national office, in great or small numbers) but, will shape the debate. What folks fail to see and the media fails to report is that the Ron Pauls of the GOP have moved the debate. We are talking about libertarian ideas.

My greatest concern, during this election, is that, while the Libertarian candidates may be able to take from both parties, it is the GOP that will suffer the greatest loss. I'd hate to see President Obama reelected because a Libertarian candidate ran strongly in one or two swing states.
When seconds count...the police are minutes away.
 
srbmod
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RE: When Will A Libertarian Be President?

Fri Sep 07, 2012 8:30 pm

Quoting SmittyOne (Reply 5):
Agreed. I think the Libertarians' basic premise - reducing the involvement of govt in people's lives, and thus its power - is so dangerous to the personal interests of 'career politicians' that getting any traction in mainstream political circles is very unlikely. It's like being the one atheist guy in a large group of people from different religions. The one thing they all can agree on is that they don't like you LOL.

The Republicans talk of "smaller government", but that seems to be it, talk...... The GOP has pulled a few cards from the libertarian deck, but the party is too tainted to ever really play that hand.

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 6):

Political power in the US starts at the local levels - with school boards, city councils, etc. The Libertarians need to get people into those bodies to start building their base and their power. Only when they have built that grass roots political structure can they aim for higher office with any ability to enact policy.

According the LP website, there are currently 154 Libertarians holding elected office, 38 of those are in partisan offices while the remaining 116 are in nonpartisan offices. All of them local level offices.

http://www.lp.org/candidates/elected-officials
 
PHX787
Topic Author
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RE: When Will A Libertarian Be President?

Fri Sep 07, 2012 9:00 pm

Quoting SmittyOne (Reply 5):
Quoting Superfly (Reply 3):
If there were to be one, I would hope to be the first one!

I'd vote for you just to see what the motorcade looked like.

I would ask to be the secretary of sexy in your administration  

Or at least some sort of ambassador

Quoting srbmod (Reply 4):
As much as I would love to see a Libertarian administration, the chances of it happening in 10 years or even 20 years are slim to none. Even if a high-profile Democrat or Republican were to jump ship to the LP, that wouldn't guarantee election success for the LP (Case in point, Bob Barr in 2008.).

Yeah I guess you have a point.

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 6):
The Libertarian's biggest hurdle is their lack of a strong central agenda and leadership. They have to communicate that agenda and goals to the public throughout the entire year.

That, admittedly, is a huge issue that libertarians face. Its agenda is never solidified and that's what the main hurdle is for educated americans who are dissatisfied with both parties. I have seen a number of FB posts saying that these pere are not gonna vote this year. Yet they were the ones who helped the Tea Party win its landslide 2 years ago.

Quoting srbmod (Reply 11):
The Republicans talk of "smaller government", but that seems to be it, talk...... The GOP has pulled a few cards from the libertarian deck, but the party is too tainted to ever really play that hand.

Well given the choices we have, I'mma vote republican this year, simply because Obama is an economic illiterate and i don't like debt.
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Ken777
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RE: When Will A Libertarian Be President?

Fri Sep 07, 2012 11:06 pm

Quoting SmittyOne (Reply 5):
I'd vote for you just to see what the motorcade looked like.

LOL!

That one line made the thread a winner.

As for the Libertarians, I think their time has passed. There have been some individuals that fire up a third party, but a third party on it's own would always be on thin ice. Not solid enough to won on a national level.
 
ltbewr
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RE: When Will A Libertarian Be President?

Sat Sep 08, 2012 2:11 am

Never based on their current policy positions. Too many rely on government subidies in their lives, too many want to regulate how others live (abortion, drugs), the lack of regulation would be a disaster to those without money.
 
flyguy89
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RE: When Will A Libertarian Be President?

Sat Sep 08, 2012 2:29 am

Quoting PHX787 (Thread starter):
Do you guys think 10 years from now, we'll finally have a libertarian in office?

Though I substantively disagree with some libertarians regarding foreign policy (i.e. Ron Paul's positions in that respect) I would be happy to have a libertarian in office. The prospect at the moment seems unlikely, but down the road, who knows how the American political landscape will evolve. For me personally however, I will not vote for a libertarian so long as the vote ends up splitting the right-of-center electorate and increases the chances of a left-of-center candidate winning as is the situation now. I have many friends who lean libertarian but dislike both candidates, but the reality for the moment, for this election, is that a vote for a libertarian is essentially a vote for Obama.

If in the future we had four serious presidential contenders (two right-of-center and two left-of-center candidates), I would gladly cast a ballot for the libertarian.
 
WrenchBender
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RE: When Will A Libertarian Be President?

Sat Sep 08, 2012 4:43 am

When will the "Ahmericun Electorate" wake up and realize the 10% of extremists at each end of the political spectrum (Dems and Reps) do not represent the the majority of the population.      
If the general population stopped voting the way daddy did and actually found a middle of the road voice and candidate ie a "third party" you may get your wish.

WrenchBender
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Ken777
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RE: When Will A Libertarian Be President?

Sat Sep 08, 2012 5:03 am

Quoting WrenchBender (Reply 16):
If the general population stopped voting the way daddy did and actually found a middle of the road voice and candidate ie a "third party" you may get your wish.

IMO the problem is that the Libertarian is not middle of the road. Like the Tea Party they are at an extreme to the real middle of the roaders.

Right now the Tea Party has the 3rd Party position and they have it (for now) within the GOP. As long as they stay inside the GOP (and keep normal Republican politicians scared) the Libertarians are out in the cold.
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: When Will A Libertarian Be President?

Sat Sep 08, 2012 5:11 am

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 17):
IMO the problem is that the Libertarian is not middle of the road.

Depends on which libertarians you look at. Sure they have their anarchists but they have their reasonable moderate candidates, just like in the Democrat and Republican parties
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LMP737
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RE: When Will A Libertarian Be President?

Sat Sep 08, 2012 3:37 pm

Quoting SmittyOne (Reply 5):
Agreed. I think the Libertarians' basic premise - reducing the involvement of govt in people's lives, and thus its power - is so dangerous to the personal interests of 'career politicians' that getting any traction in mainstream political circles is very unlikely. It's like being the one atheist guy in a large group of people from different religions. The one thing they all can agree on is that they don't like you LOL.

A lot of people agree with Libertarians basic premise, getting government out of peoples lives. However when you start pressing them for details that's when things get a bit murky. Ask them if we should get rid of medicare, social security, unemployment benefits, grants for college students etc chances are they will say no.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 12):
Well given the choices we have, I'mma vote republican this year, simply because Obama is an economic illiterate and i don't like debt.

If you don't like debt why would you vote republican?
Never take financial advice from co-workers.
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: When Will A Libertarian Be President?

Sat Sep 08, 2012 4:32 pm

Quoting LMP737 (Reply 19):
A lot of people agree with Libertarians basic premise, getting government out of peoples lives. However when you start pressing them for details that's when things get a bit murky. Ask them if we should get rid of medicare, social security, unemployment benefits, grants for college students etc chances are they will say no.

   What is more likely than a Libertarian president is one or both of the two main parties becoming more libertarian. I mean if you think of it, Democrats and Republicans are pretty much opposite blends of libertarians and statists. If the Democrats adopted a bit more conservative fiscal policies they'd become a lot more libertarian, and if the Republicans stopped caring about family values and invading everything that moves, they'd be more libertarian. I think the 2nd scenario is more likely that the former, even in the sad sad state the party is now.

Sadly though, it seems both parties have gone the opposite way lately and are becoming more statist lately (TSA, Patriot Act, SOPA (which died thankfully,) etc.) If you look at the parties today you'll probably say my whole entire post is BS and won't happen... well yeah, the parties have major issues, but I think it'll straighten out in 4-8 years (I hope!)
Ironically I have never flown a Delta MD-90 :)
 
Superfly
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RE: When Will A Libertarian Be President?

Sat Sep 08, 2012 5:24 pm

Quoting WrenchBender (Reply 16):
If the general population stopped voting the way daddy did

Who does that? Many voters disagree with their parents and often vote the way their radical, tenured college professor votes.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 13):
Quoting SmittyOne (Reply 5):
I'd vote for you just to see what the motorcade looked like.

LOL!

That one line made the thread a winner.

Haha! 
They would all be Ford products.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 13):
As for the Libertarians, I think their time has passed. There have been some individuals that fire up a third party, but a third party on it's own would always be on thin ice. Not solid enough to won on a national level.

I disagree. The only problem for the Libertarians is the same problem ALL 3rd parties face and that is the winner-take-all and electoral college.
Bring back the Concorde
 
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ER757
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RE: When Will A Libertarian Be President?

Sat Sep 08, 2012 7:05 pm

Quoting SmittyOne (Reply 5):
Quoting Superfly (Reply 3):
If there were to be one, I would hope to be the first one!  

I'd vote for you just to see what the motorcade looked like.

I'd vote for him just 'cause I know the music at the inaugural ball would be awesome!
 
Superfly
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RE: When Will A Libertarian Be President?

Sat Sep 08, 2012 7:27 pm

Quoting ER757 (Reply 22):
I'd vote for him just 'cause I know the music at the inaugural ball would be awesome!

Haha!  
Would need several different parties.
-Brazilian lounge music
-Classic rock
-Funk/disco

Bill Clinton did something similar to that in 1993 when he was first inaugurated.
Bring back the Concorde
 
MD-90
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RE: When Will A Libertarian Be President?

Sat Sep 08, 2012 9:23 pm

After the crack-up boom when the dollar has become worthless.
 
PHX787
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RE: When Will A Libertarian Be President?

Sun Sep 09, 2012 4:27 am

Quoting LMP737 (Reply 19):
Quoting PHX787 (Reply 12):
Well given the choices we have, I'mma vote republican this year, simply because Obama is an economic illiterate and i don't like debt.

If you don't like debt why would you vote republican?

Why? Because voting democrat would be suicide for my future. Dems do nothing to fix the budget. Reps are all about cutting spending.
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jpetekyxmd80
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RE: When Will A Libertarian Be President?

Sun Sep 09, 2012 5:02 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 25):
Reps are all about cutting spending.

Negated by massive tax cuts.

If Ryan was so concerned about the debt, why wouldn't he leave current rates in place for a period to pay it down? Instead, radical tax code change which namely drastically reduces taxes on the highest incomes and thus takes 30 years to meet debt objectives. Then of course any kind of military cut for any reason is a non-starter, no matter how logical.

They talk out both sides of their mouth.
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flyguy89
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RE: When Will A Libertarian Be President?

Sun Sep 09, 2012 5:21 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 25):
Reps are all about cutting spending.

Whoa whoa, let's not be too generous with that assertion, I mean I generally agree with you, but Reps weren't the most fiscally sane last decade, you have to hold their feet to the fire.

Quoting jpetekyxmd80 (Reply 26):
Negated by massive tax cuts.

Which is negated by economic growth. Revenue targets that politicians project whenever they propose raising taxes are never and historically have never been met...the higher the tax rate the less people you have paying taxes, the rich move away, and voila, all of a sudden there's another "revenue problem".
 
LMP737
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RE: When Will A Libertarian Be President?

Sun Sep 09, 2012 1:49 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 25):
Why? Because voting democrat would be suicide for my future. Dems do nothing to fix the budget. Reps are all about cutting spending.

That's a joke right? What happened to the deficit when the republicans controlled both the executive and legislative branch? You should know the answer to that already.

The republicans seem to think they can balance the budget by cutting funding to Planned parenthood and NPR. Tell them they might have to cut things like defense or end subsidies to oil companies they have a temper tantrum.
Never take financial advice from co-workers.

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