comorin
Topic Author
Posts: 3857
Joined: Sun May 29, 2005 5:52 am

Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Fri Sep 28, 2012 5:41 pm

Given that Romney's 47% comment was the final, fatal, self-inflicte wound, should he just give up now? Why bother with the upcoming debates when one has no chance of winning?

I am saddened to see Romney flailing around like King Lear in the rain and we should put an end to this sorry spectacle. We are not Romans who would feed him to the lions for sport. The vultures are gathered, and pecking at his entrails already.

Given the dire economic situation, I would be more interested in President Obama's plans for his second term, and also to see the composition of the House. Will he prove to be one of America's greater leaders? Only time will tell; our opinions now are moot.
 
jetblueguy22
Posts: 2532
Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2007 12:26 am

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Fri Sep 28, 2012 5:47 pm

Quoting comorin (Thread starter):

Given that Romney's 47% comment was the final, fatal, self-inflicte wound, should he just give up now? Why bother with the upcoming debates when one has no chance of winning?

It hurt him but I wouldn't exactly fatal. The most recent polls I've seen didn't exactly have Obama up by 20%. I guess time will tell but I don't think fat lady has sung just yet.
Blue
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
slider
Posts: 6806
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2004 11:42 pm

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Fri Sep 28, 2012 5:47 pm

Yes, he should just quit.

After all, he can't compete with free phones and F-bombs in commercials.

/sarcasm off



Not a Romney fan as I think everyone knows and detest his entire campaign management and strategy. Moreover, he's aloof at times, doesn't deliver a clear message and, while I believe him to be an honorable hard-working man who's earned his place in life, there is a major perception gap because he, to many people, represent the image of the eeevil rich white guy. I assign no value to that, just saying that's how I think he's perceived.

And he needs to let Ryan off the leash.

The Democrats play dirty and Romney won't even get in the ring.
 
comorin
Topic Author
Posts: 3857
Joined: Sun May 29, 2005 5:52 am

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Fri Sep 28, 2012 5:57 pm

Quoting slider (Reply 2):
while I believe him to be an honorable hard-working man who's earned his place in life, there is a major perception gap because he, to many people, represent the image of the eeevil rich white guy.

That's why I mentioned about the 47% comment - after what he said, it must be really hard for a large number of those people to vote for him.
 
srbmod
Posts: 15446
Joined: Tue Mar 20, 2001 1:32 pm

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Fri Sep 28, 2012 6:01 pm

One thing to remember is that all opinion polls have a margin of error and he's not out of the race just yet. Sure he shot himself in the foot with the 47% comments, but when you consider that Todd Akin despite his infamous "legitimate rape" comment has managed to recover some support in Missouri and has the potential based on most recent polls and their margin or error of winning the race

I was listening to CNN while at one of my accounts the other day and they were discussing poll numbers and they mentioned that Jimmy Carter was ahead in the polls prior to the 1980 election and we all know how that ended up. Early voting has begun (or is about to begin) in some states and that too will factor into the poll numbers. Then again, the 47% comment may have done a lot more damage then we know and won't know until Election Day. There must be something in the water in Massachusetts, as the 47% comment is probably the biggest Presidential campaign gaffe since Dukakis's tank ad in 1988.....
 
flymia
Posts: 6808
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2001 6:33 am

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Fri Sep 28, 2012 6:01 pm

What kind of stupid question is this anyway. You do realize that in 1980 Carter was up in the polls right now. Do you think Regan should have quit? How about Bush in 2004 when Kerry was up in the polls until that night. Bush should have quit.
Honestly I guess it should not come as a surprise that a Obama supporter thinks someone should just quit.

Obama one of America greatest leaders? I don't think anyone will have that discussion yet. How about he wins his election first.

Quoting slider (Reply 2):

Yep, it's a shame people believe what the media and other side wants to depict him as.
"It was just four of us on the flight deck, trying to do our job" (Captain Al Haynes)
 
User avatar
DeltaMD90
Posts: 8245
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 11:25 pm

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Fri Sep 28, 2012 6:12 pm

That would be suicide for the Republican Party IMO. I wish he'd do it and endorse Gary Johnson. I can dream...

And just to spice things up and have some people lose their minds, I'll show you guys this site:

http://unskewedpolls.com/

Romney is up about 7-10% in almost every poll! LOL

They do bring up a good point at how some polls may represent one side more than another, but other than that, I'm calling BS on their "polls"
Ironically I have never flown a Delta MD-90 :)
 
PSA53
Posts: 2928
Joined: Tue Aug 19, 2003 1:54 pm

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Fri Sep 28, 2012 6:18 pm

Should Romney Just Concede Now?.

Haha.Democrats would just love that.But both democrats and republicans are so fed up with Obama lies, flip-flops and failures of his 1st term that Romney will win it close.This is not 2008.

[Edited 2012-09-28 11:22:38]
Tuesday's Off! Do not disturb.
 
flymia
Posts: 6808
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2001 6:33 am

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Fri Sep 28, 2012 6:24 pm

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 6):

The majority of the polls poll more democrats due to their large turnout in 2008. Thing is some are polling democrats like they will have an even larger turnout. We all know that wont happen. Even democrat analysist on CNN are reminding people that the only poll that counts is the election they don't want their base to get too confident. I think with many polls the way they are polling you can make the lead for Obama at least a point or 2 smaller.

I was watching MSNBC or "MSBS" and it said in a headline Obama up 9 points in Florida, CNN had President up around 4 points and the Miami Herald actually in Florida and left leaning had it as a tie.

I picked up the phone for a poll. They asked me general questions and then once I said Hispanic they asked me what type Central America, Mexico? Etc.. When I said Cuban they hung up. They don't want to have a Hispanic support Romney as most do in South Florida. Shows how great some of those polls are.

This one has not been wrong: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/0...sity-of-colorado-pr_n_1822933.html

Does anyone know if it gets updated? Or is a one time run?

[Edited 2012-09-28 11:26:10]
"It was just four of us on the flight deck, trying to do our job" (Captain Al Haynes)
 
727LOVER
Posts: 6644
Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2001 12:22 am

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Fri Sep 28, 2012 6:28 pm

Quoting srbmod (Reply 4):
One thing to remember is that all opinion polls have a margin of error and he's not out of the race just yet. Sure he shot himself in the foot with the 47% comments, but when you consider that Todd Akin despite his infamous "legitimate rape" comment has managed to recover some support in Missouri and has the potential based on most recent polls and their margin or error of winning the race

I was listening to CNN while at one of my accounts the other day and they were discussing poll numbers and they mentioned that Jimmy Carter was ahead in the polls prior to the 1980 election and we all know how that ended up. Early voting has begun (or is about to begin) in some states and that too will factor into the poll numbers. Then again, the 47% comment may have done a lot more damage then we know and won't know until Election Day. There must be something in the water in Massachusetts, as the 47% comment is probably the biggest Presidential campaign gaffe since Dukakis's tank ad in 1988.....

And also, a very important factor is this Republican cheating with the ID laws. We don't know how that will affect the outcome.




Quoting flymia (Reply 5):
How about Bush in 2004 when Kerry was up in the polls until that night.

Actually, Kerry was behind in the polls until the first debate. That debate got him back in the race.

Quoting flymia (Reply 5):
You do realize that in 1980 Carter was up in the polls right now.

Was that useless national polls, or state polls?
Love Trumps Hate
 
dtw9
Posts: 894
Joined: Mon Sep 22, 2003 10:09 am

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Fri Sep 28, 2012 6:31 pm

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 6):
Romney is up about 7-10% in almost every poll! LOL

They do bring up a good point at how some polls may represent one side more than another, but other than that, I'm calling BS on their "polls"

Like the Liberal leaning news media never skews any polls, do they. They always tell you the truth and never skew things , oh wait a minute

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cgm3_jzcNm4
 
mt99
Posts: 6166
Joined: Wed May 26, 1999 5:41 am

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Fri Sep 28, 2012 6:40 pm

Quoting dtw9 (Reply 10):
Like the Liberal leaning news media never skews any polls, do they.

Fox News is liberal now?
"
New Fox News poll released Thursday shows Obama winning 3 key swing states

http://www.examiner.com/article/new-...s-obama-winning-3-key-swing-states

"Or at least that's what their "unskewed" polls had been showing up until yesterday when Fox News released its latest survey, which showed Obama up by 5 points, 48 percent to Romney's 43.'

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slate...vey_has_obama_beating_romney_.html
Step into my office, baby
 
dtw9
Posts: 894
Joined: Mon Sep 22, 2003 10:09 am

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Fri Sep 28, 2012 6:55 pm

Quoting mt99 (Reply 11):

"Or at least that's what their "unskewed" polls had been showing up until yesterday when Fox News released its latest survey, which showed Obama up by 5 points, 48 percent to Romney's 43.'

With a plus or minus 3 percent error. So Obama's either up by five percent , down by one percent,or tied with Romney You tell me, because you seem to be a firm believer in polls
 
flyguy89
Posts: 1931
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Fri Sep 28, 2012 7:56 pm

Absolutely not. No matter what the pundits on either side of the aisle are saying, it's going to be a close race. Mark my words, come the second half of October we're going to see the polls "suddenly" tighten up. I could easily see Obama winning, but I could just as easily see Romney winning unless he just completely flops in the debates.

The issue with a lot of the current polls is that they're estimating Democrat voter turning being even greater than it was in 2008, which I think any level-headed Democrat or Obama supporter would acknowledge definitely won't be the case. Both candidates are far from having it in the bag at this point as, if Obama were truly so far and away in the lead in Virginia, Ohio, etc, why is he continuing to spend so much time campaigning there?
 
User avatar
2707200X
Posts: 4839
Joined: Mon Mar 02, 2009 5:31 am

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Fri Sep 28, 2012 8:07 pm

Of course he should stay, he had the best chance to win a general when the GOP picked him against others like Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann nine-nine-nine and others but now since he is starting to sound like the earlier candidates who say only they could win a general by going full tilt right, Mitt is finding himself between a rock and a hard place to win a general.

Quoting dtw9 (Reply 12):
With a plus or minus 3 percent error. So Obama's either up by five percent , down by one percent,or tied with Romney You tell me, because you seem to be a firm believer in polls

Find a poll that's in your favor, can you find one or do you think FOX News polls are in the along with reliability conservative Rasmussen Reports polls are just in the tank for Obama and is all like what Rush Limbaugh says It''s all voter suppression on the left.
"And all I ask is a tall ship and a star to steer her by." John Masefield Sea-Fever
 
User avatar
pvjin
Posts: 3008
Joined: Fri Mar 16, 2012 4:52 pm

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Fri Sep 28, 2012 8:27 pm

Yes he should, world doesn't need another Republican as US president. George W Bush already showed what it leads to, growing inequality, war, greed, terror.
"Optimism is the madness of insisting that all is well when we are miserable." - Voltaire
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 13827
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Fri Sep 28, 2012 8:30 pm

Of course, Romney shouldn't concede now. He should help the economy by spending even more of his personal fortune buying advertisements, and then lose in a landslide!  
Quoting dtw9 (Reply 12):
With a plus or minus 3 percent error.

I looked at the various cited links and didn't find the margin of error quoted anywhere, and am having a hard time following your math.

If it's 48 to 43 and the error is plus or minus three percentage points, then Obama's number could be between 51 and 45, whereas Romney's number could be between 46 and 40. Thus Obama could be up as much as 11 points and down at most by 1 point.

If we're talking percentage instead of percentage points, of course, the error would be 48% * (1 +/- 0.03) but I doubt that's what you meant.

Just because that is the margin of error is three percent, it doesn't mean all outcomes in that 3 percent range are equally likely. The given numbers are the most likely, with decreasing probability of the other values occurring the further you get away from the given numbers:

Inspiration, move me brightly!
 
Klaus
Posts: 20594
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Fri Sep 28, 2012 8:36 pm

Quoting flymia (Reply 8):
The majority of the polls poll more democrats due to their large turnout in 2008. Thing is some are polling democrats like they will have an even larger turnout. We all know that wont happen.

As far as I'm aware the pollers don't first select a given number of registered Democrats or Republicans according to some dubious numbers and then ask for their likely decision, they just select likely voters and then check how many of those are registered D or R, so the latter is just for information, not a selection criterion.

In other words: There is no such bias, there just happen to be more registered Ds than Rs.

Biases have more to do how with the actual polling is done, such as some polls only doing phone polls via landline numbers, thus skewing towards older and more R-leaning people.

[Edited 2012-09-28 13:38:39]
 
flyguy89
Posts: 1931
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Fri Sep 28, 2012 8:42 pm

Quoting Klaus (Reply 17):
Quoting flymia (Reply 8):
The majority of the polls poll more democrats due to their large turnout in 2008. Thing is some are polling democrats like they will have an even larger turnout. We all know that wont happen.

As far as I'm aware the pollers don't first select a given number of registered Democrats or Republicans according to some dubious numbers and then ask for their likely decision, they just select likely voters and then check how many of those are registered D or R, so the latter is just for information, not a selection criterion.

No, but you weight your data accordingly. Currently many of the polls are weighing Democrat voters greater than Republican voters, assuming as said that Democrat voter turn out will be greater than in 2008.
 
User avatar
EA CO AS
Posts: 13438
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2001 8:54 am

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Fri Sep 28, 2012 8:56 pm

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 18):
Currently many of the polls are weighing Democrat voters greater than Republican voters, assuming as said that Democrat voter turn out will be greater than in 2008.

  

Not only are they over-sampling Democrats, they're assuming record Democrat turnout. Not only will that not occur (many in Obama's base are disenchanted with him and aren't as eager to vote), but you have a VERY whipped up Republican base that will almost certainly end up with a huge Republican turnout.

Romney's going to win.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
User avatar
stasisLAX
Posts: 2924
Joined: Mon Jul 09, 2007 9:04 am

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Fri Sep 28, 2012 8:59 pm

Yes, Rob-Me should just concede. And the Republican Party should concede that they are attempting to disenfranchise millions of voters in total nationwide with their sleazy voter ID laws in numerous states - although some state voter ID laws are now being overturned by their state supreme courts.

Do the Republicans realize that attacking minority and senior voters is NOT the way to broaden their base. The policies of divisiveness will haunt them in the future, as the population of the United States become less white - and much more diverse - the voters affected by this attempted voter "lock-out" will be highly unlikely to vote Republican if the future. Very stupid and highly short-sighted, just like the robber-barons on Wall Street that support the GOP....   
"Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety!" B.Franklin
 
Ken777
Posts: 9046
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 5:39 am

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Fri Sep 28, 2012 9:01 pm

Quoting slider (Reply 2):
Moreover, he's aloof at times, doesn't deliver a clear message and, while I believe him to be an honorable hard-working man who's earned his place in life, there is a major perception gap because he, to many people, represent the image of the eeevil rich white guy.

The guy simply isn't comfortable out in the wild with the middle class. His entire life has been in the wealthy levels. He's not a bad man, but he is a bad option for President. Or a President who works for all Americans.

Quoting slider (Reply 2):
And he needs to let Ryan off the leash.

Well, seems to me he has done all the damage he can. Wants to kill Social Security and Medicare and Medicaid. What else do you want him to do?

Quoting slider (Reply 2):
The Democrats play dirty

And the Republicans never did? Not even Nixon? What about the Swift Boaters?

Quoting slider (Reply 2):
and Romney won't even get in the ring.

Romney can't. His entire campaign is to deflect simple questions on issues, like the economy. He only has a "secret plan" for helping the economy.

Quoting srbmod (Reply 4):
the biggest Presidential campaign gaffe since Dukakis's tank ad in 1988.....

As bad as that looked, Dukakis did serve in the US Army after graduation from college and was deployed to Korea. But he did take a huge hit from that ad.


As for Romney, no politician that has worked hard enough to be a Presidential candidate will walk away just over a month before the election.
 
mt99
Posts: 6166
Joined: Wed May 26, 1999 5:41 am

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Fri Sep 28, 2012 9:02 pm

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 18):

No, but you weight your data accordingly. Currently many of the polls are weighing Democrat voters greater than Republican voters, assuming as said that Democrat voter turn out will be greater than in 2008.

Including FOX?

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 19):
Not only are they over-sampling Democrats,

OK how do you know this? Have you done your own polling? How would you know that Fox is over sampling?
Step into my office, baby
 
Klaus
Posts: 20594
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Fri Sep 28, 2012 9:02 pm

There are actually polls which start out with lists of registered party supporters and only go from there? That's a completely ludicrous idea.

As far as I'm aware that is at least not the general method for getting a picture of the actual outcome of the election.

[Edited 2012-09-28 14:04:43]
 
User avatar
pu
Posts: 1351
Joined: Sat Dec 03, 2011 1:08 am

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Fri Sep 28, 2012 9:09 pm

Quoting Klaus (Reply 17):
There is no such bias, there just happen to be more registered Ds than Rs


Correct.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 18):
No, but you weight your data accordingly

No.
They poll likely voters and report the percentage selecting Romney or Obama. There is no extra weight given to people who identify as democrats, insofar as their political affiliation is even asked for, which often it is not.
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics...t-surveys-20120927,0,5276434.story
...
Also, the allegation that Obama supporters, especially the young ones, will not turn out in 2012 is irrelevant to poll numbers, because the polls are of likely voters.

Quoting 727LOVER (Reply 9):
Was that useless national polls, or state polls?

EXACTLY.
Carter was perhaps winning in national polls up until the summer, but Reagan's comeback was evident in the polls by September. Anyway, national polls as you say, are useless. The only polls that matter are battleground states. The right leaning real clear politics, whcih averages all the polls,
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ections_electoral_college_map.html
...has Obama at 265 electoral votes out of 271 needed to win, with several previous tossup-states moving to lean Obama after the 47% remark and the embassy crisis.

Pu

[Edited 2012-09-28 14:10:31]

[Edited 2012-09-28 14:13:09]

[Edited 2012-09-28 14:23:29]

[Edited 2012-09-28 14:48:05]

[Edited 2012-09-28 14:49:01]
 
User avatar
pu
Posts: 1351
Joined: Sat Dec 03, 2011 1:08 am

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Fri Sep 28, 2012 9:45 pm

The candidate leading in mid-September polling has won every election since 1948.
.
.
.
.

Quoting flymia (Reply 5):
You do realize that in 1980 Carter was up in the polls right now.


Pu
 
User avatar
zckls04
Posts: 2539
Joined: Fri Dec 30, 2011 6:55 pm

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Fri Sep 28, 2012 9:55 pm

No. His backers aren't paying him to give up- he has an obligation to them to stick it out.
Four Granavox Turbines!
 
ltbewr
Posts: 12389
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Sat Sep 29, 2012 12:56 am

He won't concede, won't give up, who know what can happen although the chances of Romney winning are decreasing. Even in losing, many Republicans will gain State offices. Probably the Republicans will control the Congress and possibly gain seats due to reapportionment of Congressional districts in Republican dominated states (like Texas). They may keep their narrow minority status or even gain a seat in the Senate.

Romney needs to stick to several key items like no tax hikes, major spending cuts, cut offensive regulations on individuals and small business. At the least, by a narrow loss, he could force a re-elected President Obama into keep making concessions popular to the Republicans and Conservatives on key issues.
 
seb146
Posts: 13904
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 1999 7:19 am

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Sat Sep 29, 2012 4:06 am

As long as there is FOX and AM radio, Romney should not concede.

Seriously.

Those are the same people who believe Obama was born in Kenya or Indonesia or wherever and is Muslim (because there is a clause in the Constitution that says the President MUST be Christian) *rolls eyes*

I have not heard a peep out of Paul Ryan. I think it is because he is smart enough to distance himself from Romney. I don't like Ryan's policies, but he is intelligent. Romney will not win, but let him keep running. Let him say silly things that can be easily discredited with simple fact checking with any source any person wants.
Life in the wall is a drag.
 
User avatar
zippyjet
Posts: 5089
Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2001 3:32 pm

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Sat Sep 29, 2012 4:10 am

Let him go the distance. He and his Ricky Ricardo looking running mate are not my cups of tea but, Mitt the money man will fare better than such down on their luck candidates Mondale, droll Dole, George Mc. Govern (pinko in the eyes of Archie Bunker) and Barry blow em up Goldwater and Adlai Stevenson to name a few. Nothing is impossible and then there is all that voter intimidation and convenient voting machine errors. Let the fun begin. Just think once the election is over we will be besieged with those Sh***y over the top mincing Christmas commercials.

BTW I "zippyjet" do not approve of those Christmas buy buy messages!
I'm Zippyjet & I approve of this message!
 
3DoorsDown
Posts: 347
Joined: Tue Oct 18, 2005 3:55 pm

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Sat Sep 29, 2012 4:16 am

Should Romney Just Concede Now?

I would be interested in Obama's plans for his first term. Pelozi got Pelozi Care through. What did O do? Had someone killed. Good for him. Had someone else killed. Again, good for him.
But yes. There are tow many people who can't see the expensive writing on the wall who will vote him back in, so yes, I think we might as well write Romney off and let him go back to wherever he came.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 13827
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Sat Sep 29, 2012 4:51 am

Quoting seb146 (Reply 28):
Those are the same people who believe Obama was born in Kenya or Indonesia or wherever and is Muslim (because there is a clause in the Constitution that says the President MUST be Christian) *rolls eyes*

Interesting, since many Republicans refuse to admit that a Mormon is a Christian.

Quoting seb146 (Reply 28):
I have not heard a peep out of Paul Ryan. I think it is because he is smart enough to distance himself from Romney.

He can't be happy with Romney's half-hearted and vague endorsement of his budget plans.
Inspiration, move me brightly!
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 7589
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Sat Sep 29, 2012 5:15 am

There is no sense in conceding. If there was a world war going on then yes, it would make sense, so that people would unite behind the president. But here, even if Romney thought it would be good for the country, his party would still continue with the silly games. However I hear economists saying the game ends a couple of weeks after the election, when everyone will be again looking at the US deficit.

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 19):
Not only are they over-sampling Democrats, they're assuming record Democrat turnout. Not only will that not occur (many in Obama's base are disenchanted with him and aren't as eager to vote), but you have a VERY whipped up Republican base that will almost certainly end up with a huge Republican turnout.

Makes sense, it's well know pollsters are in the business of doing wrong polls.

Are you implying that they receive money under the table from Democrats to make Obama look good ?

Or that they receive money under the table from Republicans to make Obama look good, thus unmotivating his troops while motivating the R ones ?

Or both at the same time, maybe ?
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
jetblueguy22
Posts: 2532
Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2007 12:26 am

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Sat Sep 29, 2012 5:30 am

Quoting pvjin (Reply 15):
Yes he should, world doesn't need another Republican as US president. George W Bush already showed what it leads to, growing inequality, war, greed, terror.

Wow, just wow. Explain this growing inequality. I also didn't know that greed was limited to Republicans  . And terror? Really! The ignorance is incredible! I had no idea GWB financed all these terror groups and was pro terrorist. I think your dislike for America is clouding your judgement.
Blue
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
flyguy89
Posts: 1931
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Sat Sep 29, 2012 5:35 am

Quoting mt99 (Reply 22):
Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 18):

No, but you weight your data accordingly. Currently many of the polls are weighing Democrat voters greater than Republican voters, assuming as said that Democrat voter turn out will be greater than in 2008.

Including FOX?

Oh, so now all of a sudden Fox is the pinnacle of accuracy for you?

Quoting pu (Reply 24):
Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 18):
No, but you weight your data accordingly

No.
They poll likely voters and report the percentage selecting Romney or Obama. There is no extra weight given t

Incorrect.
If you want a decently accurate poll there are many factors that must be weighted. For example, women answer the phone more than men giving a gender sample statistically disparate from the electorate, so it's necessary give more weight to males polled as well as weigh down the elderly as a disproportionately large number agree to actually be polled. Youth voters polled are also given extra weight as they typically don't have landlines, most use their cell phones as their primary means of communication. Lastly, party affiliation is asked and then weighted using modeling based on what they predict turn-out will be. Usually they just use the previous election's turn-out statistics, however 2008 was such an exception, that modeling a poll based on it is obviously not going to be accurate, the most accurate polls are those using a combination of 2004 and 2008 stats.

Quoting pu (Reply 25):
The candidate leading in mid-September polling has won every election since 1948.

...and no president other than FDR has ever won reelection with unemployment above 7.2%
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 8536
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Sat Sep 29, 2012 5:37 am

Quoting pvjin (Reply 15):

Yes he should, world doesn't need another Republican as US president. George W Bush already showed what it leads to, growing inequality, war, greed, terror

This kind of stuff is why this kind of discussion never works. Have to at least have the facts straight! War? Vietnam? Started under LBJ, a Democrat. Obama has utilized the US military in no less than five locations in the world since taking office. Again your point is lost here. Growing inequality? Inequality grew under Kennedy, LBJ, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush I, made a slight statistical improvement with Clinton, then grew again under Bush II and now Obama. Inequality is not a problem an American president has the power to fix, period.

Bottom line: inequality is a structural problem in the US. War of some type is inevitable due to powerful foreign interests and relationships of assistance held by the US in most corners of the world. Greed is a baseline of the US economic system and the political machine operates as a support network for this regardless of who the President is. This kind of blind finger-pointing at individual US Presidents, all of whom in my estimation have been men of good character and intent overall, is completely uncalled for. Need to see the big picture first.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
User avatar
pu
Posts: 1351
Joined: Sat Dec 03, 2011 1:08 am

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Sat Sep 29, 2012 5:52 am

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 34):
Incorrect

I posted a link from today's LA Times explaining how polls are NOT weighted to the benefit of either party.
.
Can you provide a source other than a right wing blog or opinion piece that polls are weighted to the benefit of Democrats?...because the "weighting" you describe of giving more value to men and older people in polls would help Republicans.

Pu
 
User avatar
pu
Posts: 1351
Joined: Sat Dec 03, 2011 1:08 am

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Sat Sep 29, 2012 6:06 am

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 34):
party affiliation is asked and then weighted using modeling based on what they predict turn-out will be.

This is bullsh*t. Polls are NOT weighted by party ID ;or "predicted turnout".
.
...but if you provide a manstream source (not a blog or opinion piece) I will of course apologise!

Pu

"We do not weight for party ID"
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-...s-biased-to-boost-obama/?pageNum=2

"The Quinnipiac poll result is not weighted by party affiliation or altered in any way based on predicted voter turnout"
http://www.clickorlando.com/news/Is-...2/16752932/-/102g7byz/-/index.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisf...p/27/unskewing-polls-party-id-bunk

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics...t-surveys-20120927,0,5276434.story

[Edited 2012-09-28 23:07:16]
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 13827
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Sat Sep 29, 2012 6:19 am

Quoting Aaron747 (Reply 35):
This kind of stuff is why this kind of discussion never works. Have to at least have the facts straight! War? Vietnam? Started under LBJ, a Democrat.

Right after the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

US "advisers" were in French Indochina in 1950 i.e. Truman's era. The French left in 1955, and US helped install the government of South Vietnam, and US presence was slowly increasing in the entire period of the Ike and JFK administrations. When LBJ took over, US "advisers" were present in every level of the South Vietnamese Army, and a large insurgency was already ongoing. Surely LBJ accelerated the Vietnam War far beyond that of his predecessors, but surely he didn't start it either. Most historians would place it at the time where the US decided to support the South Vietnamese government, i.e. during Ike's administration. That decision, and the South's subsequent suspension of elections it was mandated to hold, was the beginning of what the Vietnamese call "the American War". Note that if elections were held, even Ike said that Ho would get 80% of the vote.
Inspiration, move me brightly!
 
User avatar
pu
Posts: 1351
Joined: Sat Dec 03, 2011 1:08 am

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Sat Sep 29, 2012 6:26 am

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 34):

...and no president other than FDR has ever won reelection with unemployment above 7.2%

US unemployment rate in November 1984 is 7.4%

Pu

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate

[Edited 2012-09-28 23:29:13]
 
flyguy89
Posts: 1931
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Sat Sep 29, 2012 7:22 am

Quoting pu (Reply 36):
Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 34):
Incorrect

I posted a link from today's LA Times explaining how polls are NOT weighted to the benefit of either party.
.
Can you provide a source other than a right wing blog or opinion piece that polls are weighted to the benefit of Democrats?...because the "weighting" you describe of giving more value to men and older people in polls would help Republicans.

"Weighting" does not inherently exist to skew polls for one party or the other but to make them more representative of the electorate for the reasons I stated above. In a telephone sampling of likely voters there are going to be a disproportionately large number of women and elderly persons and too low a number of minorities and young persons, thus it's necessary to not only decipher likely voters, but also weigh the sample to bring it in sync with census data.

The issue is that afterwards, many weight their modeling using exit polling from the last year's election...and there in lies the problem for this year, 2008 was an exceptional year, but I don't know a single Democrat who's admitting that enthusiasm for Obama is even approaching that which existed in 2008.

Here's a solid explanation about weighting polls: http://people.howstuffworks.com/political-polling4.htm
 
User avatar
pu
Posts: 1351
Joined: Sat Dec 03, 2011 1:08 am

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Sat Sep 29, 2012 7:43 am

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 40):

So, I post direct links PROVING polls do not "weight their modeling using exit polls"as you claim.
...
.....and you post an essay claiming they do? By Mr David Ross?
.
I can't decide who to believe, the mainstam Nonpartisan polling organisations explaining they don't weigh their data or you and Mr David Ross "a freelance writer based in Mexico" (his credentials from the auhoritive essay you provided)...

Flyguy, we have chatted before and you are mostly rational, but you have attached yourself to make-believe falsehoods drummed up by fringe right wing crackpots in this case. Check the polling data in September in any previous election, it has never been wrong.


Pu

"We do not weight for party ID"
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-...s-biased-to-boost-obama/?pageNum=2

"The Quinnipiac poll result is not weighted by party affiliation or altered in any way based on predicted voter turnout"
http://www.clickorlando.com/news/Is-...2/16752932/-/102g7byz/-/index.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisf...p/27/unskewing-polls-party-id-bunk

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics...t-surveys-20120927,0,5276434.story
 
flyguy89
Posts: 1931
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Sat Sep 29, 2012 8:58 am

Quoting pu (Reply 37):
This is bullsh*t. Polls are NOT weighted by party ID ;or "predicted turnout".

*facepalm* It's not about "predicted turnout", it's about their modeling in determining LIKELY voters in their sample, for which they use exit polling from the previous presidential election in 2008, which was a statistical outlier.

Quoting pu (Reply 37):
...but if you provide a manstream source (not a blog or opinion piece) I will of course apologise!

Pu

"We do not weight for party ID"
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-...s-biased-to-boost-obama/?pageNum=2

"The Quinnipiac poll result is not weighted by party affiliation or altered in any way based on predicted voter turnout"
http://www.clickorlando.com/news/Is-...2/16752932/-/102g7byz/-/index.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisf...p/27/unskewing-polls-party-id-bunk

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics...t-surveys-20120927,0,5276434.story

Almost all of these are opinion pieces (Guardian and LA Times)! Except for the clickorlando.com link which inexplicably mentions that 43% polled were Democrats while Democrats comprise only 40% of the rolls...

And CBS? Please, they're no better than Fox or MSNBC.

Quoting pu (Reply 39):
Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 34):

...and no president other than FDR has ever won reelection with unemployment above 7.2%

US unemployment rate in November 1984 is 7.4%

Pu

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate
http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/1985/02/art1full.pdf

http://www.data360.org/dsg.aspx?Data_Set_Group_Id=44&count=all

Quoting pu (Reply 41):
So, I post direct links PROVING polls do not "weight their modeling using exit polls"as you claim.
The links you posted do not PROVE they're not using 2008 election statistics in their poll modeling They're opinion pieces as I pointed out above.
 
flyguy89
Posts: 1931
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Sat Sep 29, 2012 9:24 am

Quoting pu (Reply 41):
.....and you post an essay claiming they do? By Mr David Ross?
.
I can't decide who to believe, the mainstam Nonpartisan polling organisations explaining they don't weigh their data or you and Mr David Ross "a freelance writer based in Mexico" (his credentials from the auhoritive essay you provided)...

He's probably no more or less credible than the opinion writers of the articles you've linked to.

Quoting pu (Reply 41):
Flyguy, we have chatted before and you are mostly rational, but you have attached yourself to make-believe falsehoods drummed up by fringe right wing crackpots in this case.

What make-believe falsehood would that be? That they're using 2008 election data in their modeling? Because they absolutely are, it's the norm in polling to use the last election but again, 2008 was an exceptional year and you don't have to be a "crackpot" to see that the resulting poll isn't going to be the most accurate.
 
Klaus
Posts: 20594
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Sat Sep 29, 2012 10:41 am

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 34):
Incorrect.
If you want a decently accurate poll there are many factors that must be weighted. For example, women answer the phone more than men giving a gender sample statistically disparate from the electorate, so it's necessary give more weight to males polled as well as weigh down the elderly as a disproportionately large number agree to actually be polled. Youth voters polled are also given extra weight as they typically don't have landlines, most use their cell phones as their primary means of communication. Lastly, party affiliation is asked and then weighted using modeling based on what they predict turn-out will be. Usually they just use the previous election's turn-out statistics, however 2008 was such an exception, that modeling a poll based on it is obviously not going to be accurate, the most accurate polls are those using a combination of 2004 and 2008 stats.

It looks as if you've simply not understood the methodology being used.

You have claimed that previously recorded party affiliation was the basis for polling, but from everything I've seen so far it simply isn't.

Of course there is weighing being done, but only after a neutral sample of registered voters has been polled.

The party affiliations detected in the poll are just a neutral sample of then-current affiliations as far as I'm aware, not some pre-biased basis for the sampling in the first place.

That makes a crucial difference.

There will be several corrections applied to the raw data in order to extrapolate from the people actually polled to the entire voter population (which cannot just be scaled by a given factor), but that is something completely different from what you've claimed.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 13827
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Sat Sep 29, 2012 12:46 pm

Strange how all the Romney supporters have is the hope that the pollsters are wrong, repeatedly, in several different swing states. I guess it's their "vast left wing conspiracy" theory taking on yet another one of its guises.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 38):
Most historians would place it at the time where the US decided to support the South Vietnamese government, i.e. during Ike's administration.

Something I stumbled across to further my earlier point:

Quote:

November 1, 1955 — President Eisenhower deploys the Military Assistance Advisory Group to train the Army of the Republic of Vietnam. This marks the official beginning of American involvement in the war as recognized by the Vietnam Veterans Memorial.

Ref: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Role_of...in_the_Vietnam_War#Americanization
Inspiration, move me brightly!
 
comorin
Topic Author
Posts: 3857
Joined: Sun May 29, 2005 5:52 am

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Sat Sep 29, 2012 2:26 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 45):
Strange how all the Romney supporters have is the hope that the pollsters are wrong, repeatedly, in several different swing states.

They are now know as 'Denialists' as per the local press.

The premise of this thread was that Romney had fatally damaged his candidacy, so should should he pull out.

The responses fall into:

1. No his candidacy is alive, the polls are wrong.
2. The polls are right, but he should stick in there anyway
3. Obama is a very very bad guy.

I would like to point out that political polling and market research both have a huge body of knowledge backing them in the areas of applied statistics, especially sample surveys. If you question the efficacy of these methodologies, please note that all these models are rigorously back tested for validity. Statisticians also know that correlation is not causality, and how cell phones etc etc affect polling. Most of all these polls present us with confidence intervals so we also know how to interpret results.

Statistically, Romney has about a 20% chance of winning based on current data - so the question is, should he stay in the race? If he were a David battling Goliath, with hearts and minds on his side, we would all be rooting for him. But given his recent utterances, there's little sympathy left amongst swing voters.

As for Obama being a good guy or not, there are plenty of other threads active for those posts.

My personal opinion is that for a center-right country, it is important to have sensible conservative and liberal views on the table for debate. Extremist, ideologue positions do not make for intelligent discourse. In a way, this is good news for the GOP; now is the perfect time to chase out the extremists from the tent and return to the party of Lincoln and Eisenhower.
 
User avatar
DeltaMD90
Posts: 8245
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 11:25 pm

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Sat Sep 29, 2012 2:41 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 45):
Strange how all the Romney supporters have is the hope that the pollsters are wrong, repeatedly, in several different swing states. I guess it's their "vast left wing conspiracy" theory taking on yet another one of its guises.

This is kinda my fault, I posted that link in the beginning of the thread for laughs and I completely debo-ed the topic. I don't think any conspiracy is going on, from what I've heard many Republicans are thinking that the polls are skewed to the left (not for any malicious reasoning, they are just affected by 2008's Democratic turnout) and that Republican voters are fired up this year/Democrat voters are less fired up this year.

Not here to argue whether that's right or wrong, I'm not too educated in polling methodology, and furthermore I really don't care about the polls too much. I'm just saying that I haven't heard any conspiracy theories, just incorrect methodology
Ironically I have never flown a Delta MD-90 :)
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 13827
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Sat Sep 29, 2012 3:22 pm

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 47):
Republican voters are fired up this year/Democrat voters are less fired up this year.

Romney's utterances have surely changed that equation, and even worse for him, have fired up a lot of swing voters to vote against him.
Inspiration, move me brightly!
 
seb146
Posts: 13904
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 1999 7:19 am

RE: Should Romney Just Concede Now?

Sat Sep 29, 2012 4:31 pm

Quoting comorin (Reply 46):
should he stay in the race? If he were a David battling Goliath, with hearts and minds on his side, we would all be rooting for him. But given his recent utterances, there's little sympathy left amongst swing voters.

IMO, Romney is what Kerry was as far as enthusiasm. People listen to him speak and just kinda shrug their shoulders and say "well, okay..." That has a lot to do with it, too.

Quoting comorin (Reply 46):
Extremist, ideologue positions do not make for intelligent discourse. In a way, this is good news for the GOP; now is the perfect time to chase out the extremists from the tent and return to the party of Lincoln and Eisenhower.

Except those extremists sell more papers, so to speak. Also, those extremists the GOP *should* chase out are the ones who want to be even farther right than Reagan, whom they claim was the best thing that every happened to this country.
Life in the wall is a drag.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: dc10bhx, jetwet1, Yahoo [Bot] and 15 guests