comorin
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Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 2:14 pm

Great news! The U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 7.8%!

Senior right wing nut Jack Welch thinks the BLS is cooking the numbers. ..  

At some point this thread will devolve into yet another Obama vs Romney fest, so let me stir the pot right away and say "Thank you, Obama! We are now officially better off than we were four years ago!"
 
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Dreadnought
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 2:21 pm

Quoting comorin (Thread starter):
Great news! The U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 7.8%!

But U-6, which includes discouraged people no longer actively looking for work, remains rock steady at 14.7%, meaning that the gains are coming from people dropping out of U-3 and retiring to the couch and cheetos.
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Tugger
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 2:27 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 1):
But U-6, which includes discouraged people no longer actively looking for work, remains rock steady at 14.7%, meaning that the gains are coming from people dropping out of U-3 and retiring to the couch and cheetos.

Or retiring because there investments/nest egg has recovered enough, or reaching SS eligibility (you do remember that the baby boomers are supposed to be swelling the numbers of those not working don't you?), or not looking for work because their partner/spouse got gainful employment. No one ever seems to want to note these important elements.

We knew for years that the numbers of the baby boomer generation not working would grow, and it will continue to do so for some time.

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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 2:31 pm

Quoting tugger (Reply 2):
Or retiring because there investments/nest egg has recovered enough, or reaching SS eligibility

No, those people do not fall in U-6.

U-6 includes:
- Persons marginally attached to the labor force are those who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months.
- Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not currently looking for work.
- Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule.

Labor force participation rate is continuing to fall, far faster than can be explained by increasing retirements. Remember guys, U-3 and U-6 only count people withing the participating labor force. So the 2% drop (roughly 6 million people) are simply removed from the equation. Maybe 1 million can be explained by more retirees, but what of the other 5 million?



[Edited 2012-10-05 07:39:45]
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flymia
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 2:42 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 1):
But U-6, which includes discouraged people no longer actively looking for work, remains rock steady at 14.7%, meaning that the gains are coming from people dropping out of U-3 and retiring to the couch and cheetos.

Exactly. I am not going to say that the numbers are a fraud. If they are we will see it a few months but right now you have to trust the numbers. It is improvement no doubt about that but how much of a real improvement can be debated. This article does not seem to be too positive. When looking at job stuff I prefer to go by mainly business news sites.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/49299718

Quote:
The U-6 unemployment number, which accounts for the underemployed and those who have given up looking for jobs, held steady at 14.7 percent.
Quote:
Labor's birth-death model, which estimates jobs created and lost through newly opened and closed businesses, impacted the September numbers little, actually showing a decline of 9,000.
Quote:
The greatest losses came in manufacturing, which fell 16,000.
Quote:
The Bureal of Labor Statistics' nonfarm paryolls report presented a slew of contradictory data points, with the total employment level soaring despite the low net number.



I think for the President he needs to say look unemployment is doping but he can't take it too far. Making it too big of a deal could hurt him. It is still high. For Romney he needs to focus on where we lost jobs and how the real unemployment rate is steady. The recovery is still slow and the numbers do not add up perfectly. The next day or so with analysis from the numbers will be interesting.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-1...lls-to-7-8-114-000-jobs-added.html

Quote:
The unemployment rate in the U.S. unexpectedly fell to 7.8 percent in September, the lowest since President Barack Obama took office in January 2009, as employers took on more part-time workers.


Lets also remember the shopping season is coming. Stores are going to hire temporary workers.

Quote:
The household survey showed an 873,000 increase in employment, the biggest since June 1983, excluding the annual Census population adjustments. Some 582,000 Americans took part- time positions because of slack business conditions or those jobs were the only work they could find.
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Tugger
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 2:45 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 3):
U-6 includes:
- Persons marginally attached to the labor force are those who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months.
- Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not currently looking for work.
- Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule.

Labor force participation rate is continuing to fall, far faster than can be explained by increasing retirements. Remember guys, U-3 and U-6 only count people withing the participating labor force. So the 2% drop (roughly 6 million people) are simply removed from the equation. Maybe 1 million can be explained by more retirees, but what of the other 5 million?

OK, then what about this portion:

Quoting tugger (Reply 2):
or not looking for work because their partner/spouse got gainful employment.

I know quite a few people where both people had to be working because the primary breadwinner lost their "good job", so they both have had worked for the last three years. However one of these couples, the husband got a "good job" again recently and she so stopped working.

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casinterest
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 3:02 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 3):
No, those people do not fall in U-6.

U-6 includes:
- Persons marginally attached to the labor force are those who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months.
- Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not currently looking for work.
- Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf


Not in the labor force dropped from
88,921
to
88,710

211,00 people rejoined the labor force.

The numbers got better, in fact they are as good as when Obama took office.
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wolbo
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 3:05 pm

The employment rate is still not great but at least in the US it has improved slowly but steadily from 10% in 2009 to 7.8% now. Its heading in the right direction and is now on the same level as when Obama took office. No matter how you spin it that's an achievement, certainly when you compare it to Europe which had about the same unemployment rate two/three years ago but has seen it increase since to over 11%.
 
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pu
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 3:09 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 1):

Your devotion to partisan politics is touching. How appealing it must be to think America is in worse shape only to discover the initial joy is factually incorrect:

"
The decline in the main unemployment rate was driven by positive factors. In previous months, the rate has fallen because more Americans were no longer looking for work. That wasn’t the case in September The labor force increased, as more people were seeking jobs
"

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/...-did-the-unemployment-rate-drop-9/

Pu

I am very happy America is improving and only hope Europe quickly sorts out its mess so we can stop dragging you and the rest of the world down!

[Edited 2012-10-05 08:14:12]
 
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 3:51 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 1):
But U-6, which includes discouraged people no longer actively looking for work, remains rock steady at 14.7%, meaning that the gains are coming from people dropping out of U-3 and retiring to the couch and cheetos.

At least U-6 isn't up 42% as it was under George W....
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 3:57 pm

Bold emphasis added:

Quoting flymia (Reply 4):
I think for the President he needs to say look unemployment is doping but he can't take it too far.

Is that a typo (doping for dropping)? 
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Superfly
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 4:02 pm

Yay!
The toy stores are hiring for the Christmas season.
Sounds more like more people have ran out of their unemployment benefits.

Quoting casinterest (Reply 6):
The numbers got better, in fact they are as good as when Obama took office.

Sounds like Obama is just as good as George W. Bush.
What an accomplishment.
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casinterest
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 4:06 pm

Quoting Superfly (Reply 11):
Sounds like Obama is just as good as George W. Bush.
What an accomplishment.

There is a big difference between and upslope and a downslope.
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Superfly
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 4:08 pm

Quoting casinterest (Reply 12):
There is a big difference between and upslope and a downslope.



Let's revisit this topic come February after all the Christmas holiday seasonal jobs are finished.
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 4:09 pm

I'm not gonna get into the politics of it all, and this is good news, but I often warn about temporary good news... will this rate continue to fall? Is it a (low) spike that will just return to normal? And what caused it? (was it a certain party's policies or just natural growth?) Not to be a Debbie Downer, but we've seen good news before that was just an anomaly, not a trend. Hopefully the economy continues to improve!
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casinterest
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 4:11 pm

Quoting Superfly (Reply 13):
Let's revisit this topic come February after all the Christmas holiday seasonal jobs are finished.

Sure we can, because it is not just the holiday shoppers. Stores wouldn't be hiring them if it wasn't for the money they believe will be spent. the real impact of the seasonals will be seen in October and November when they do finally come fully onboard for the holidays

The housing market is recovering, manufacturing is up, and many other influences on the economy are working towards resolution.
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Aesma
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 4:20 pm

So the numbers for October will be known on the 5th of November ? If unemployment rises again that day, all bets are off !
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casinterest
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 4:30 pm

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 14):
I'm not gonna get into the politics of it all, and this is good news, but I often warn about temporary good news... will this rate continue to fall? Is it a (low) spike that will just return to normal? And what caused it? (was it a certain party's policies or just natural growth?) Not to be a Debbie Downer, but we've seen good news before that was just an anomaly, not a trend. Hopefully the economy continues to improve!

the trend is your ftriend. Since 2009/10 the unemployment rate has been going down, with slight blips to the high side.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate

There may still be some bumps, espcially with Europe. but I think the picture is getting better.
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 4:36 pm

Well, IMHO these numbers have to be treated with a certain amount of caution. it may mark the beginning of a very positive trend, but as DeltaMD90 points out, could also be a low spike that lasts one or two months. It might be extra hiring for Halloween/Christmas. Could be a number of things, but for right now, take it as a good sign. The market is doing fairly well these days, and has been for some months, and it typically leads the economy by 6-8 months, so perhaps this has some traction.

It's interesting to compare, here in Canada our unemployment rate has been slowly ticking upward over the past seven or eight months by about 0.1 or so per month, from around 6.8 to 7.4, all the while as the economy pumps out more jobs (53,000 last month, for an economy 1/10th the size of the US). What's happening is that as more people are employed, more sideline onlookers are rejoining the workforce, which forces the unemployment rate up. Seems crazy but when you look behind the simple figure, it does make sense.
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 4:41 pm

Quoting casinterest (Reply 17):

Well it does indeed look good, but of course I'm gonna investigate both sides of the story. Still don't quite understand the U-3 and U-6 debate, that does have the potential to make the good looking graph you posted useless...
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 5:35 pm

Quoting casinterest (Reply 17):
the trend is your ftriend. Since 2009/10 the unemployment rate has been going down, with slight blips to the high side.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate

There may still be some bumps, espcially with Europe. but I think the picture is getting better.

From the same source, have you looked at this page?

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/employed-persons

Total employed persons has remained at just over 142 million since the beginning of the year. The trend is flat.

Meanwhile the population has increased by an estimated 2.2 million. Just to keep up with population increase and keep the same REAL employment rate as a year ago, we should have added at least a million jobs. And we have not. From the chart, it looks like job creation in the past year is damned close to zero.

edit: I don't blame the Obama administration for fudging the numbers. BLS figures are pretty much designed to give you as rosey a picture as possible (unless you go into the details), and have done so for years.

But I do get mad at people harping about this like it's such great news. Don't piss on my back and tell me it's raining.

[Edited 2012-10-05 10:38:45]
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DocLightning
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 5:42 pm

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 14):
I'm not gonna get into the politics of it all, and this is good news, but I often warn about temporary good news... will this rate continue to fall?

It has for the last three years...
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casinterest
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 5:47 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 20):
Total employed persons has remained at just over 142 million since the beginning of the year. The trend is flat.

Jan 2012
141,600,0000
Oct 2012
142,974,000

Not FLAT.

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 20):
Meanwhile the population has increased by an estimated 2.2 million. Just to keep up with population increase and keep the same REAL employment rate as a year ago, we should have added at least a million jobs. And we have not. From the chart, it looks like job creation in the past year is damned close to zero.

And Not less than 1 million
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 5:49 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 21):
It has for the last three years...

Very slowly, I am not convinced if it is due to any such policy or the economy just naturally rebounding. I think under most circumstances, the economy would gradually get better.

Not trying to be facetious, I'm just trying to make sure I don't go down a road thinking a policy works even if it hasn't. Both sides have good points, the strongest I have seen is the recovery hasn't been as effective due to Congressional gridlock. That being said, I can't be 100% sure seeing slow growth is an indicator that a policy is good or not.

Don't get me wrong, I hope it is! I don't care who gets elected, I want the best for America. I'm not in the "I hope the President fails even if it hurts the economy" boat
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Dreadnought
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 5:52 pm

Quoting casinterest (Reply 22):
Jan 2012
141,600,0000
Oct 2012
142,974,000

Look at February, and compare with the latest month. Sorry I was not more concise:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/charts/united-states-employed-persons.png?s=unitedstaempper
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casinterest
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 5:56 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 24):
Look at February, and compare with the latest month. Sorry I was not more concise:

And then compare it ot this month where it has jumped to almost 143,000

the graph only shows August.
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DocLightning
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 6:16 pm

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 23):
Very slowly, I am not convinced if it is due to any such policy or the economy just naturally rebounding. I think under most circumstances, the economy would gradually get better.

You are correct, but it is partially due to the fact that the same disaster that caused the crash of 2008 has been prevented from recurring.

There is a recovery and there are more jobs. People looking for them are finding them.

I guarantee that if there were a Republican in the White House, Dreadnought would be singing the praises of how well the recovery is going.

Tell me, Dreadnought, I thought your house Republicans were promising to bring the jobs back. What do you feel they've done to help that process?
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Superfly
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 6:17 pm

None of these numbers and reports mean anything unless the voters 'feel' the change in a positive direction. Another important indicator is wages and spending power. Lest I read, wages were down 10% under Obama. It would be interesting to see what job sectors saw the most growth. Those professionals that were out of work for awhile that had good paying jobs that just got hired on at a low paying job isn't going to be too thrilled about the economy.
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 6:27 pm

Quoting Superfly (Reply 27):
Those professionals that were out of work for awhile that had good paying jobs that just got hired on at a low paying job isn't going to be too thrilled about the economy.

Get used to it. It's only going to get worse. Most conservatives like Romney feel that workers in the U.S. are overpaid and need to take wage cuts so we can compete with sweatshops in China. This trend started long before Obama and will continue long after him.
 
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Tugger
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 6:35 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 20):
edit: I don't blame the Obama administration for fudging the numbers. BLS figures are pretty much designed to give you as rosey a picture as possible (unless you go into the details), and have done so for years.

Now you support the insinuation that the numbers have been influenced by the administration.... nice.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 23):
Very slowly, I am not convinced if it is due to any such policy or the economy just naturally rebounding. I think under most circumstances, the economy would gradually get better.

I am very sure that it is due to cycle not policy and that is exactly why the Republican's very much want to have one of their own in office so they can take credit for the natural upswing in the economy. Otherwise President Obama will get some of the credit (there is no way the politics of the situation will allow the president to get all of the credit).

Quoting Superfly (Reply 27):
Lest I read, wages were down 10% under Obama.

Yeah, it was funny, FoxNews ran a headliner on how the nations wages were down 10% under Obama but then quickly seemed to pull it because the other data bit was that for wealthier Americans, their wages have increased under Obama.

Tugg
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Ken777
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 6:38 pm

Quoting comorin (Thread starter):
We are now officially better off than we were four years ago!

That's not hard to answer. 4 years ago 750,000 people lost their job every month, Lehman Brothers had filed bankruptcy, the DOW had been cut in half, and there was a very real risk that the nation would go into a true depression. (GM & Chrysler were both in trouble, but W was pushing that issue into a new President's term.)

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 1):
But U-6, which includes discouraged people no longer actively looking for work, remains rock steady at 14.7%,

We have had this situation my entire adult life. Even during Reagan's Time there were people who had stopped looking for work for one of many reasons.

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 1):
meaning that the gains are coming from people dropping out of U-3 and retiring to the couch and cheetos.

All of the gains? Really?

What are the historic ratios?

Quoting flymia (Reply 4):
I am not going to say that the numbers are a fraud

They were presented by the same "government workers" that W used.  Wow!

To be blunt, the most important factor was that period that delivered the bikini graph. The end of Bush and the start of Obama. Since Obama because President there has been a long run of improving the situation, but the reality is that all the jobs sent overseas are going to stay overseas for a long time. Romney has no more chance of bringing those jobs back than Obama. Actually I put Romney behind Obama for long term job growth as Romney will be supporting the private health insurance industry which is simply going to increase employer costs.
 
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pu
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 6:42 pm

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 28):
Get used to it. It's only going to get worse

True.
In today's global economy, a "business friendly" tax/economic policy in a first world nation means low paying jobs are where the big job growth will come from. You're either buying cheap goods at Walmart or your working at Walmart...How to create high paying jobs while staying competitive globally is not something anyone really knows how to do.

Pu
 
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DocLightning
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 6:43 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 20):
edit: I don't blame the Obama administration for fudging the numbers. BLS figures are pretty much designed to give you as rosey a picture as possible (unless you go into the details), and have done so for years.

In that case, then the improvement is real. What matters is that the methods are consistent.

What really burns my shorts is that the Conservatives are actually cheering a bad jobs outlook. Is it really like that? You hate this President so much that you want to see the country suffer more just to get him out of office?

That strikes me as being downright Anti-American.
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EA CO AS
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 6:46 pm

These jobs numbers don't seem to add up:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...c-11e1-af1d-753c613ff6d8_blog.html

Fair-use excerpt:

The rate over the first seven months of 2012 has been remarkably consistent; it’s never been above 8.3 percent or below 8.1 percent. That steadiness speaks to the fact that it simply won’t drop in any precipitous way in the near or even medium term — a fact the Federal Reserve’s policy committee acknowledged in a statement earlier this week.

Just for kicks, we asked the folks at Hamilton Place Strategies, a Republican economic consulting firm, to project how many jobs the economy would need to add in each of the next three months for the unemployment rate to get underneath eight percent. The answer? 279,000 jobs a month, a total that even in the best month of 2012 — January when 275,000 jobs were created — the economy didn’t reach.

With even the most optimistic Democrats admitting that such sustained job growth is simply not going to happen, the question now is how/whether the country’s first black president can again make history by winning a second term amid record-high unemployment in the country.


Let's not forget; no sitting U.S. President has been re-elected (post WWII) with unemployment numbers north of 7.2%.
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 6:49 pm

Who hires holiday workers in September?

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 3):
U-6 includes:-

Persons marginally attached to the labor force are those who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months. -

Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not currently looking for work.-

Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule.

Personally I couldn't care less about the first two of those groups. The third group I have a lot of sympathy (and respect) for, but if you can't be bothered to look for work it's your own fault.

For me the most useful metric is Population/Jobs. The rest is just dependent on what spin you prefer.
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bhill
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 6:52 pm

Doc, with respect, I do not see where regulations have been emplaced to prevent another meltdown. As we have read, those that were put on the floor were gutted to the point of....uselessness. The Congress once again caved to the lobbyists from the financial sector. We need Glass-Steagall type legislation back. And these reports of the unemployment numbers are great, but with the way wages have been, the only thing we will be albe to afford are trinkets at Walmart...from Thailand.....
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pu
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 6:56 pm

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 33):
Let's not forget; no sitting U.S. President has been re-elected (post WWII) with unemployment numbers north of 7.2%.

Sure, if you don't count Truman in 1948 with a 7.9% rate
or
Reagan in 1984 with a 7.4% rate

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate

Pu
 
JakeOrion
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 7:06 pm

As always, the famous quote of "Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics" should be applied here.

Record 88 Million not in Labor Force- Complete Employment Analysis

http://finance.townhall.com/columnis...ete_employment_analysis/page/full/

88 million out of work and not looking for a job

http://www.sfgate.com/business/artic...-not-looking-for-a-job-3159904.php

Unemployment Rate Falls To 8.1 Percent As People Give Up On Looking For Work

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/0...ent-rate-april-jobs_n_1477014.html

3 Lies About Jobs and the Unemployment Rate

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/...out-jobs-and-the-unemployment-rate
Every problem has a simple solution; finding the simple solution is the difficult problem.
 
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casinterest
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 7:15 pm

Quoting jakeorion (Reply 37):
As always, the famous quote of "Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics" should be applied here

And links from 1-6 months ago are so out of date to the discussion from today.
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JakeOrion
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 7:19 pm

Quoting casinterest (Reply 38):
And links from 1-6 months ago are so out of date to the discussion from today.

I put them in the discussion because it proves the point of how information is manipulated.
Every problem has a simple solution; finding the simple solution is the difficult problem.
 
BMI727
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 7:21 pm

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 28):
Most conservatives like Romney feel that workers in the U.S. are overpaid and need to take wage cuts so we can compete with sweatshops in China.

It doesn't matter what they or anyone else "feels", they're telling you what is happening. Whether you or I think they are overpaid, underpaid, or paid just right doesn't matter when the very simple fact is that Chinese workers can do many jobs more cheaply. That leaves three basic options: do the job cheaper, do the job better, or do a different job. There's protectionism too, but that's just stupid and should not be considered as a serious option.

Quoting pu (Reply 31):
How to create high paying jobs while staying competitive globally is not something anyone really knows how to do.

Education.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
something
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 7:21 pm

What people need to understand is that Obama's policies, or at least the few he managed to pass, are not exclusively aimed at boosting the economy but rather at cleaning up America. It's not difficult to engage the turbo button on the economy, it's just that those types of growth will ultimately be built on a bubble and after a few years of amazing numbers end in a calamity. A lot of Obama's efforts are aimed at reducing the deficit, generating a surplus and leading America towards a sustainable, organically grown economy.

If anyone is actually interested in ''economics'', I would be more than delighted to provide the equations, the calculations, or just references - be they historic precedences or economic textbooks.
..sick of it. -K. Pilkington.
 
D L X
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 7:40 pm

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 40):
Education.

And we all know how much conservatives like education.
 
Kiwirob
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 7:54 pm

Quoting pu (Reply 8):

I am very happy America is improving and only hope Europe quickly sorts out its mess so we can stop dragging you and the rest of the world down!

Speak for yourself Pu, unemployment in Norway is around 3%, financial crisis what financial crisis I think we missed it!
 
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EA CO AS
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 9:12 pm

Quoting pu (Reply 36):
Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 33):Let's not forget; no sitting U.S. President has been re-elected (post WWII) with unemployment numbers north of 7.2%.
Sure, if you don't count Truman in 1948 with a 7.9% rate
or
Reagan in 1984 with a 7.4% rate

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate

Pu

Your chart is very informative; too bad it shows the October-November 1948 unemployment rate as actually being 3.7%, not the 7.9% you claimed. Also, November 1984 was 7.2%, so my point stands.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

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Starbuk7
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 9:14 pm

Funny how all of the people that I know who have been out of work for the last year or two and have been looking for jobs weekly if not daily still can not find work yet the news comes out and says unemployment is going down.

Sounds like a bunch of lies to me. Oh, and by the way for some of you questioning the holiday hiring I have seen signs in all the major department stores for the last several weeks for holiday hiring, so this must be the (supposed) fall in the "main stream media" news, hoping to make Obama look good.
 
something
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 9:25 pm

Quoting starbuk7 (Reply 45):

Funny how all of the people that I know who have been out of work for the last year or two and have been looking for jobs weekly if not daily still can not find work yet the news comes out and says unemployment is going down.

Sounds like a bunch of lies to me. Oh, and by the way for some of you questioning the holiday hiring I have seen signs in all the major department stores for the last several weeks for holiday hiring, so this must be the (supposed) fall in the "main stream media" news, hoping to make Obama look good.

If the average American stops being obese, you will still get fat if you eat burgers all day long. That's an analogy.

Besides, if all these places are hiring, then why can't your unemployed friends find work?

If people have a problem with Obama emotionally, then that's okay. But trying to make up arguments out of thin air in order to somehow substantiate such baseless claims doesn't make one's point; it makes one lose all credibility (with everybody who likes facts better than assumptions).
..sick of it. -K. Pilkington.
 
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casinterest
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 9:30 pm

Quoting starbuk7 (Reply 45):
Funny how all of the people that I know who have been out of work for the last year or two and have been looking for jobs weekly if not daily still can not find work yet the news comes out and says unemployment is going down.

Sounds like a bunch of lies to me. Oh, and by the way for some of you questioning the holiday hiring I have seen signs in all the major department stores for the last several weeks for holiday hiring, so this must be the (supposed) fall in the "main stream media" news, hoping to make Obama look good.

Why is it that the same party that has trusted the numbers when everything is above 8% suddently finds the source of the number suspect when the number falls below 8%.


The DOW is up 12 % since Jan 2012
The Housing rates are at historic lows
The GDP is increasing
The unemployment rate has only improved from 8.3 to 7.8 % from january, which is a only a 6% improvement.

Yet because the number slipped below 8% the GOP declares fraud.

The GOP defies logic and the number.s It's the definition of today's GOP.
Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
 
FlyPNS1
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 9:41 pm

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 40):
Education.

Except that the large majority of jobs in America don't require education. You don't need an education to work at Wal-Mart or Applebees. Sure, we could send everyone to get a degree in engineering or to vocational school to be a plumber, but you'd just end up with a lot of overqualified engineers and plumbers working at Wal-Mart.
 
BMI727
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RE: Hooray! US Unemployment Down To 7.8%

Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:26 pm

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 48):
You don't need an education to work at Wal-Mart or Applebees.

No you don't, but those are low paying jobs. If you spend a career slinging appetizers, your earning potential is small no matter where you live.

The simple truth is that things have to be done better or they have to be done cheaper. When you have uneducated Americans and uneducated Chinese who can screw together the same products just as well but the Chinese person will do it for half the price the decision is simple. And unless Americans are going to start working at Chinese wages, the decision is going to stay simple.

The solution is to move upmarket. Do things foreigners cannot do, or at least not nearly as well. Look at what American industry does export: high tech equipment, industrial goods, aircraft, heavy machinery, etc. Having a toaster factory move to China is really a problem only if you don't know how to do anything besides make toasters.

There's really nothing complicated about the formula: lower the tax burdens to keep overall costs of doing business under control, limit regulation to keep barriers to entry low, and have an educated workforce to carry out new, innovative ideas.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?

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