flyguy89
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Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Mon Oct 29, 2012 3:41 pm

For the first time this election season Rasmussen indicates a two point R: 50% O: 48% lead in the state of Ohio. While still a statistical dead heat, polls in Ohio have long indicated a tie between the two or Obama with a 1 point lead in the state, so I believe this is the first piece of polling to indicate a lead for Romney in this critical swing state.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ.../ohio/election_2012_ohio_president
 
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Mon Oct 29, 2012 3:48 pm

Quoting flyguy89 (Thread starter):
so I believe this is the first piece of polling to indicate a lead for Romney in this critical swing state

Being the first doesn't do much good in polling, especially if you are the "only"

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo.../oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html

The real clear politics still shows that the +2 is within the 4 point margin of error for a 1 day poll by Rasmussen.
It remains to be seen if it is an outlier or credible, The early voting is trending for Obama currently, so I don't know if the "planning to vote for" question on the automated system is causing an issue for the numbers.

We'll know for sure on Nov 6.
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Mon Oct 29, 2012 3:49 pm

Quoting flyguy89 (Thread starter):
polling to indicate a lead for Romney in this critical swing state.

Polls? They are not to be believed (unless they favor Romney of course)  http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...ma-50-romney-46-in-ohio/?hpt=hp_t2

"PPP's newest Ohio poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 51-47, up from a 49-48 margin a week ago."

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/m.../10/obama-leads-51-47-in-ohio.html

Anywho,

Is it true that Ohio is a must-win for Romney, but not necessarily so for Obama?

[Edited 2012-10-29 08:51:08]
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Mon Oct 29, 2012 4:08 pm

fivethirtyeight still shows Obama having a 74.9% chance of winning Ohio.
 
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Mon Oct 29, 2012 4:16 pm

I hope it is true.... For the the future of the nation
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Mon Oct 29, 2012 4:30 pm

Quoting mt99 (Reply 2):
Is it true that Ohio is a must-win for Romney, but not necessarily so for Obama?

No but it's the easiest way to 270. He can win NV, IA, and NH I believe but I think he's closer to winning OH than NV. There are lots of scenarios, but I still stand by whoever wins OH will win the presidency, and despite this poll, I think it'll be the President, narrowly.

Honestly, this race is so close that looking at polls is meaningless really. Just within the margins of error of most of the swing state polls, it's likely that it could be a close race or one of the candidates can win by quite a bit. If you assume that the polls are not dead on and might favor one candidate or another, you may see even a landslide

Quoting D L X (Reply 3):
fivethirtyeight still shows Obama having a 74.9% chance of winning Ohio.

What is special about fivethrityeight? I've paid attention more during this election and am very young, so I could be wrong, but this election seems to have the most "never been proven wrong" models I've ever seen. I've heard fivethrityeight being so great, intrade odds never being wrong (for the past two elections, cough cough,) some University of Colorado model predicting Romney will win (and it supposedly was fed past data and was right for every election since 1980) so it seems like there are going to be a lot of wrong models this go around.

There is one model that I've seen that works 100% of the time, and the results of this model are going to be out in only 8 days...  
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Mon Oct 29, 2012 5:18 pm

Quoting mt99 (Reply 2):
Polls? They are not to be believed (unless they favor Romney of course)

I don't think that anyone has ever said they were worthless. Just historically they tend to be weighted 2-3 points in favor of the democratic candidate. Rasmussen has built a reputation of being one of the most accurate pollsters out there.

But of course, the overall popular vote is meaningless. Theoretically you could have nearly 75% of the population vote for Candidate A and Candidate B could still win the electoral college.
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Mon Oct 29, 2012 5:29 pm

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 5):
Quoting D L X (Reply 3):
fivethirtyeight still shows Obama having a 74.9% chance of winning Ohio.

What is special about fivethrityeight?

The deal with fivethirtyeight is that it uses math to "correct" polls, undoing their biases and counteracting the margin of error. (If you add up a lot of polls together, the margin of error decreases.) It's a very refreshing, non-biased look at election predictions.

All of the media outlets have an interest in making people think that the race is extremely close. People don't like watching blowouts, so they make it look as close as possible. Fivethirtyeight does not. (Not saying they are alone there, just saying that they don't.)
 
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Mon Oct 29, 2012 5:29 pm

In the Rasmussen article it says that only 1% of Ohio voters are 'undecided'. Is that normal at this point? This is only the second US election that I have ever followed, so I don't have much experience to go on, but I had always assumed this number would be much higher, especially given how divisive the state is.

Speaking from the experience that I do have, in Canada we often have a much higher rate of undecided voters, but I guess that is because we have 5 major parties as opposed to two, so the voters have a little more research to do.

Quoting flyguy89 (Thread starter):
Rasmussen indicates a two point R: 50% O: 48% lead in the state of Ohio

These numbers are statistically irrelevant (in the sense that they don't necessarily pose a definitive conclusion). Rasmussen reports a +/- 4% margin of error at a 95% confidence level, which in this context means a 50-48 may not be a lead at all. That said, neither side should get excited, it's still a toss-up as you mentioned later on in your post.

Quoting D L X (Reply 3):
fivethirtyeight still shows Obama having a 74.9% chance of winning Ohio.

That figure is for the entire country, not Ohio.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 5):
Honestly, this race is so close that looking at polls is meaningless really.

   Agreed, but it does depend on the state.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 5):
but this election seems to have the most "never been proven wrong" models I've ever seen

They say that about all the major sports championships every year too...it's just a marketing tool to get people to pay more attention to their polls.
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Mon Oct 29, 2012 5:33 pm

Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 8):
Quoting D L X (Reply 3):
fivethirtyeight still shows Obama having a 74.9% chance of winning Ohio.

That figure is for the entire country, not Ohio.

No, that figure is for Ohio. (Though it should not surprise that the number for Ohio comes very close to Obama's chances to win the whole thing.) His numbers for the country as a whole are 74.6%.

If you go to the site (fivethirtyeight.com) and scroll down to the map on the right, you can mouseover a particular state, and it will tell you the chances of a candidate winning that state. Ohio currently reads 74.9%.
 
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Mon Oct 29, 2012 5:41 pm

Quoting D L X (Reply 7):
All of the media outlets have an interest in making people think that the race is extremely close. People don't like watching blowouts, so they make it look as close as possible. Fivethirtyeight does not. (Not saying they are alone there, just saying that they don't.)

Makes sense. This implies that there isn't a bias in polling... it will be interesting to see whether the people skeptical of polls have a point or not (but I have a feeling if they're wrong, they'll claim that the polls discouraged voters from coming out and their original claim was right   )

I think the problem I see with fivethirtyeight is (like every poll) it assumes what would happen if the election happened NOW. If the President did something stupid tomorrow or people start caring about "Bengazi-gate" or something, you might see fivethirtyeight look a lot more red. Guess that's not really a criticism, just the reality that no one can predict the future.

Regardless, when it comes down to it, 75-25% split isn't a definite lead. I can flip a coin two times and get heads twice as easily as Romney can win the election. It's close, will be interesting to see what happens Tuesday
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Mon Oct 29, 2012 6:02 pm

Quoting D L X (Reply 9):
No, that figure is for Ohio. (Though it should not surprise that the number for Ohio comes very close to Obama's chances to win the whole thing.) His numbers for the country as a whole are 74.6%.

If you go to the site (fivethirtyeight.com) and scroll down to the map on the right, you can mouseover a particular state, and it will tell you the chances of a candidate winning that state. Ohio currently reads 74.9%.

Ah, you're right, my mistake. I was mislead by how close the numbers were.

Quoting D L X (Reply 7):
The deal with fivethirtyeight is that it uses math to "correct" polls, undoing their biases and counteracting the margin of error. (If you add up a lot of polls together, the margin of error decreases.) It's a very refreshing, non-biased look at election predictions.

So it's more of an aggregator than an actual poll?

I'm curious though, how does it "correct" polls? I know you said that it uses math, but bias is a qualitative factor, so wouldn't fivethirtyeight have to make its own assumptions (which one could argue is inherently biased in its own way) to quantify the variables used in their equation(s)?

Quoting D L X (Reply 7):
People don't like watching blowouts

But who doesn't love an underdog story?  
Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 10):
Regardless, when it comes down to it, 75-25% split isn't a definite lead. I can flip a coin two times and get heads twice as easily as Romney can win the election.

Well, mathematically that's not entirely correct because there are more influencing factors with an effect on the vote than on the coin flip. But I'm just being nitpicky   You're right that it will certainly be an interesting day though. I can assure you I won't be paying attention in class whatsoever while I'm glued to my laptop.
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Mon Oct 29, 2012 6:21 pm

Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 11):
Ah, you're right, my mistake.

Hey, no worries. If that's the worst mistake any of us make today, we all had a good day.  
Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 11):
So it's more of an aggregator than an actual poll?

Exactly. It puts each poll in its model. Basically, the model compares that poll's historical accuracy, and gives it a grade. For instance, it can compare Rasmussen against all the other polls that come out at the same time, and determined that it has a fairly predictable right lean. The model therefore balances out Rasmussen by plugging in a negative number to subtract out the historical right lean. Adding that to all the other polls (adjusting them as well to their historical biases) leads to a lower margine of error.

Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 11):
but bias is a qualitative factor, so wouldn't fivethirtyeight have to make its own assumptions (which one could argue is inherently biased in its own way) to quantify the variables used in their equation(s)?

It's totally passive. Nate Silver does not apply his views to it, but rather, plugs all the polls into the model, which uses a formula to determine how far off center it is.

The breakthrough in Silver's analysis is that it is done without human intervention.

Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 11):
But who doesn't love an underdog story?

The people rooting for the favorite.
 
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Mon Oct 29, 2012 6:22 pm

Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 11):
Well, mathematically that's not entirely correct because there are more influencing factors with an effect on the vote than on the coin flip.

Well yeah I realize there is a lot that goes into it, but at the end of the day (and if fivethirtyeight is correct) if he has a 75% chance of winning, that is just as good as any 75% odds
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Mon Oct 29, 2012 6:24 pm

Quoting D L X (Reply 3):
fivethirtyeight

This is basically the only poll worth paying attention to.
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Mon Oct 29, 2012 8:45 pm

Quoting mt99 (Reply 2):
Is it true that Ohio is a must-win for Romney, but not necessarily so for Obama?

No, in fact it's the opposite. While carrying Ohio would be a huge lift for Romney, there are other potential swing state combinations that would offset it (such as CO, IA, WI), whereas failing to carry Ohio would be more tenuous for the Obama team since they'd have to carry literally every other swing state to overcome the loss of Ohio.

These assume a PA win for Obama, but even that's not a given at this point.
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Mon Oct 29, 2012 8:52 pm

I've tuned out polls. Sick and tired of them, especailly this close to the election. Most are grossly incorrect anyhow.

At this point, it's clear that Obama's losing his firewall in many key states and if Romney doesn't have a lead, he's closed and the conventional wisdom that that favors the challenger.

I don't know how it'll all shake out.
 
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Mon Oct 29, 2012 9:15 pm

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 15):

Well the big swing states in play, OH, NC, VA, and FL, pretty much all need to be won by Romney to win, whereas the President can take just one of these states and probably win. Romney is slightly leading in NC, VA, and FL now so it's not that much tipped in the President's favor, but I still think it's an uphill battle for Romney. He's gotta break through in OH (which I don't think he has despite the single poll saying he's ahead) while defending VA, NC, and FL.
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Mon Oct 29, 2012 9:32 pm

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 17):
Well the big swing states in play, OH, NC, VA, and FL, pretty much all need to be won by Romney to win, whereas the President can take just one of these states and probably win. Romney is slightly leading in NC, VA, and FL now so it's not that much tipped in the President's favor, but I still think it's an uphill battle for Romney.

Obama for America has pulled out of NC entirely and has stopped ad buys in FL. It's generally accepted that those are in the Romney column at this point. In addition, VA is tied at the moment but reports - including one out today from Pew Research - show a statistically significant turnout edge for Romney over Obama, increasing the likelihood that VA will go to Romney.
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Mon Oct 29, 2012 10:04 pm

I will be interesting to see how 'Sandy' on the east coast will affect the last days of pre-election polling and the final vote in Ohio. There could be less accuracy in polls as many will not be home, able or willing to respond to polls. Many 1000's of voters in some areas of Ohio, but more importantly in what was a toss-up state of Pennsylvania, voters in all areas of the state could be affected by difficulty in getting to voting places, some voting locations moved or consolidated, extended power outages, as well as some just not interested in an election when they have no power, lost their car or have lost their house of if badly damaged in the storm.

The last week of the campaign will be affected as for at least through Thursday it is suspended by the President and Romney, especially as Ohio. and if the damage is severe enough over enough area, The President may not be able to campaign at all, although a visit to a damaged area - like Atlantic City/Jersey shore area or southeastern PA on Saturday or Sunday with national news coverage and making sure emergency monies, FEMA and the National Guard and other agencies quickly would look Presidential. That is something Romney can't do.
 
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Mon Oct 29, 2012 10:41 pm

Quoting flyguy89 (Thread starter):
For the first time this election season Rasmussen indicates a two point R: 50% O: 48% lead in the state of Ohio.

Ummm.

Rasmussen Reports 5/29 - 5/29 500 LV 4.5 44 46 Romney +2
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...chive/ohio/ohio_romney_46_obama_44

Try again?

If you really want to focus on polls, then look at the trends and averages. This past week both candidates have jumped up a good pit. What does this mean? Undecideds are making a choice. I also read somewhere that nearly 30-40% of Ohio voters are doing early voting and a good number of those voted BEFORE the first debate. That is a time when Obama was running a 4-6 pt average lead in Ohio. The trend so far ha been positive for both, but Obama has never trailed. It is likely going to be a VERY close election, but as soon as Ohio gets called we'll have a very good idea who is the winner.
 
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Mon Oct 29, 2012 11:34 pm

Has anyone thought about looking into who owns part of the voting machine company for Hamilton County, Ohio?
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Tue Oct 30, 2012 12:10 am

Quoting flyguy89 (Thread starter):
For the first time this election season Rasmussen indicates a two point R: 50% O: 48% lead in the state of Ohio. While still a statistical dead heat, polls in Ohio have long indicated a tie between the two or Obama with a 1 point lead in the state, so I believe this is the first piece of polling to indicate a lead for Romney in this critical swing state.

Yup. Romney has Ohio in a bag, so Republicans need not worry. They can stay home on election day!

  
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Tue Oct 30, 2012 1:06 am

Quoting seb146 (Reply 21):
Has anyone thought about looking into who owns part of the voting machine company for Hamilton County, Ohio?

Exactly. We all know all the voting machines will be rigged!  

The only thing I am taking the polls for saying is that it is close. Very close and we might not know who is the president for a few days after the election. The only poll that counts is the election. It is going to be interesting.
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Tue Oct 30, 2012 1:44 am

Quoting flymia (Reply 23):

Exactly. We all know all the voting machines will be rigged!

With as close of a race as it is, only a few will need to be tampered with.  
Quoting seb146 (Reply 21):
Has anyone thought about looking into who owns part of the voting machine company for Hamilton County, Ohio?

But seriously, that conspiracy has been debunked. Tagg's company has invested into a small piece of HIG (which controls the Hart InterCivic fund), but has no interest (financial or otherwise) in the fund that controls HIC.
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Tue Oct 30, 2012 2:54 am

Quoting flymia (Reply 23):
Exactly. We all know all the voting machines will be rigged!

Well, now it's a definite possibility, isn't it? And how could it be tracked down? It only needs a margin of error of a few percent.
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Tue Oct 30, 2012 3:21 am

Quoting D L X (Reply 12):
For instance, it can compare Rasmussen against all the other polls that come out at the same time, and determined that it has a fairly predictable right lean. The model therefore balances out Rasmussen by plugging in a negative number to subtract out the historical right lean.

D L X, can you provide some more information on the question of 'lean'? In particular - given that the questions asked in polls are usually pretty straightforward and neutrally-phrased - how can any 'lean' be applied?

As an example, here are the basic questions asked (by an automated voice) in Rasmussen polls:-

"* Please note that we split the survey to rotate the order of the candidates, so while half will hear the Republican first, the other half hears the Democrat mentioned first.

1* If the 2012 presidential election were held today, would you vote for Republican Mitt Romney or Democrat Barack Obama?

2* I’m going to read you a short list of people in the news. For each, please let me know you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.

Mitt Romney
Barack Obama

3* I’m going to read you a short list of issues in the news. For each, please let me know which presidential candidate you trust more to handle that issue.

Economy
Job Creation
National Security
Housing
Energy Policy."


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...012_ohio_president_october_28_2012

So how could Rasmussen (or any other pollster) 'rig' the poll results to show different opinions to those actually expressed by the people canvassed?

Seems to me that the only way that could be done would not be by somehow introducing 'lean' in the survey methods; but by actually falsifying (altering) the returns? A practice which, given the United States' admirable tradition of 'freedom of the press,' would surely be headline news within about five minutes?  

Seems to me that any 'lean' is likely to be in the minds of the commentators/journalists- not those of the polling organisations themselves?

[Edited 2012-10-29 20:27:13]
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Tue Oct 30, 2012 3:25 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 26):
D L X, can you provide some more information on the question of 'lean'?

I don't know that kind of details, but it could be in *who* gets called. In any event, you can take a poll and measure how well it predicted an outcome based on how well it had performed in the past. Rasmussen, for instance, isn't new to 2012. Fivethirtyeight can review its performance over a long period of time to determine how well it predicted results, and if it typically leaned one way or the other, the model can adjust for that.
 
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Tue Oct 30, 2012 3:40 am

Well, D L X, here's Rasmussen's current 'Electoral College Scoreboard' - scroll down for their Map. Please point out any areas where it differs materially from those of RealClearPolitics or FiveThirtyEight?

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ.../2012_electoral_college_scoreboard
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Tue Oct 30, 2012 3:48 am

I'm excited for this election! Despite what I, and many others thought, it will be a close one. Hell, even in my home state of Minnesota, Romney is with in the margin of error in the Star Trib poll.

Not sure why I geek out on this election stuff, but I find it fascinating!
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Tue Oct 30, 2012 4:34 am

Quoting Maverick623 (Reply 24):
Tagg's company has invested into a small piece of HIG (which controls the Hart InterCivic fund), but has no interest (financial or otherwise) in the fund that controls HIC.

So, Tagg invested in a company that is supplying voting machines but he didn't invest in a company that supplies voting machines? You can't have it both ways. If he has money in a voting machine company, maybe someone should look into it. If people are still talking about it, there is probably some truth to it.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 25):
Well, now it's a definite possibility, isn't it? And how could it be tracked down? It only needs a margin of error of a few percent.

Didn't someone go on national television and show how easily those machines can be manipulated? Who was that again?

And the right-wing was so worried about voter fraud. Just not the voting machines. I wonder why....
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Tue Oct 30, 2012 5:50 am

Quoting D L X (Reply 12):

Thanks for the info. Very insightful!

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 26):
So how could Rasmussen (or any other pollster) 'rig' the poll results to show different opinions to those actually expressed by the people canvassed?

Seems to me that the only way that could be done would not be by somehow introducing 'lean' in the survey methods; but by actually falsifying (altering) the returns?

Numbers don't lie, but there are certainly some colourful ways of interpreting and presenting them.

(I'm not saying that's what is going on here, just thought it was worth mentioning.)

Quoting seb146 (Reply 30):
So, Tagg invested in a company that is supplying voting machines but he didn't invest in a company that supplies voting machines? You can't have it both ways. If he has money in a voting machine company, maybe someone should look into it.

Tagg's company holds equity in the firm which owns a fund that invests in the manufacturer of the voting machines. Technically there is no direct relationship between the elder Romney son, and the company making voting machines, so we can't say with accuracy that he "has money in [it]". From a business perspective there's quite a few degrees of separation in there which is why it has remained above board.

Quoting seb146 (Reply 30):
If people are still talking about it, there is probably some truth to it.

People are still talking about Obama being born in Kenya...
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Tue Oct 30, 2012 7:20 am

Quoting seb146 (Reply 30):
So, Tagg invested in a company that is supplying voting machines but he didn't invest in a company that supplies voting machines?

No, try it again. He invested in a company that has a fund that runs a company that supplies ballot-counting machines. He does not have any say or even a financial interest in the fund that sells the machines.

What you're saying is basically that because Microsoft has a financial interest in the same company that Apple has an interest in, that Microsoft is going to screw Apple over, which is completely false.
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Tue Oct 30, 2012 7:39 am

Gallup Survey Finds Mitt Romney Leading among Early-Voters Nationwide 52%-46%
http://newsninja2012.com/view-these-...ong-early-voters-nationwide-52-46/


Despite these numbers, I still think Obama and his Chicago thugs will make sure he wins a 2nd term.
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Tue Oct 30, 2012 12:11 pm

Quoting Superfly (Reply 33):
Gallup Survey Finds Mitt Romney Leading among Early-Voters Nationwide 52%-46%

Gallup has been consistently right of Rasmussen this entire election cycle. Either they are doing something strange this time around or everyone else is. They have put themselves in a situation of being either completely discredited by this election, or becoming the standard bearer for all future polling attempts.

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 6):
Rasmussen has built a reputation of being one of the most accurate pollsters out there.

Never mind the fact that in 2012 they are still calling only landlines and mostly during the daytime. It certainly helps the message to poll non-minorities who still have a landline. Over 30% of the electorate lives in cell-only households. They may have had 2004 and 2006 pegged, but in 2008 they had McCain +1 at this point and in 2010 they missed by an average of 5.8 points. The coveted study folks like to cite for 2008 was done the day after the election - prior to the final margin for victory for Obama being known. In reality Rasmussen was the 9th most accurate polster of the 2008 cycle.

You've all heard that there are lies, damned lies and statistics. Polls are all data/statistics that can easily be manipulated to fit the desired message. As a scientist I realize that collection method can influence the results, and I find often that folks design experiments to meet a certain expected result. The same happens with pollsters, especially when they have a political agenda to support. The only poll that matters is the one where the real data is collected on Tuesday.
 
NAV20
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Tue Oct 30, 2012 1:04 pm

Quoting clemsonaj (Reply 34):
Gallup has been consistently right of Rasmussen this entire election cycle. Either they are doing something strange this time around or everyone else is.

As I understand it, clemsonaj, there's a difference of technique. All pollsters ask people whether they are 'likely voters' or just 'registered voters.' Most polls feed the preferences of both groups into their findings; Gallup apparently concentrate pretty well 100% on the 'likely' ones. Given that, in their (longest of all) experience, their view is that that usually produces the more accurate result; and that, in any case, the number of 'likely voters' tends to get a lot closer to 100% of respondents as election day approaches.


Quoting clemsonaj (Reply 34):
they are still calling only landlines and mostly during the daytime. It certainly helps the message to poll non-minorities who still have a landline. Over 30% of the electorate lives in cell-only households.

Agree that the rise of mobile phones creates a big problem. In particular, polling only landlines virtually rules out any contact with younger voters. But I'm not sure that the pollsters can do much about it. First of all the cost of polling lots of people using cell-phones would probably be prohibitive; and secondly, how would they even find the numbers to call?

[Edited 2012-10-30 06:08:38]
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
flipdewaf
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Tue Oct 30, 2012 1:22 pm

Quoting Superfly (Reply 33):
I still think Obama and his Chicago thugs

thugs? are they kenyan or indonesian?

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pu
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Tue Oct 30, 2012 1:47 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 6):

Rasmussen has built a reputation of being one of the most accurate pollsters out there.

To Republicans and Fox News disciples I am sure this is true, as they especially target old people who have landline phones. Like all polls they miss Latino voters almost entirely and here is their methodology for reaching those who "abandoned traditional landline telepones". (itself a value judgment...how can you abandon what you never had?)

To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from  a demographically diverse panel
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/about_us/methodology

Pu
 
NAV20
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Tue Oct 30, 2012 1:57 pm

Quoting Pu (Reply 37):
Like all polls they miss Latino voters almost entirely and here is their methodology for reaching those who "abandoned traditional landline telepones". (itself a value judgment...how can you abandon what you never had?)

What would you suggest they (or anyone else) do instead, Pu?
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Tue Oct 30, 2012 2:35 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 35):
Agree that the rise of mobile phones creates a big problem. In particular, polling only landlines virtually rules out any contact with younger voters. But I'm not sure that the pollsters can do much about it. First of all the cost of polling lots of people using cell-phones would probably be prohibitive; and secondly, how would they even find the numbers to call?

Many of the polling outlets are using random number generators to provide numbers, as I understand the methodology. This produces numbers that are as close to random as a sample can get and includes cell and landlines. If the number is disconnected it's tossed and they move on to the next number. A lot of the pollsters include cell vs. landline data in the poll.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 35):
As I understand it, clemsonaj, there's a difference of technique.

I completely agree. I did a tad more reading on the subject and it seems that gallup polls are approximately 15% cell lines. This gets them into Rasmussen territory on significantly under-representing the younger and minority electorate. They've also come under quite a bit of scrutiny this cycle for the ethnic weights they've been applying to their polls from both sides. If, after the election, their methodology proves to be the most accurate I'm sure just about everyone else will be quick to adopt it. It remains to be seen though if their methodology, or anyone else's for that matter, will accurately represent the ever-changing electorate.
 
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pu
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Tue Oct 30, 2012 3:25 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 38):
What would you suggest they (or anyone else) do instead, Pu?

I reserve the right to criticise without offering a better solutuion!

Rasmussen also weighs party membership, the other major polls do not. A big reason why Rasmussen is *always* about 4 points to the right of other polls is because it predicts a lower voter turnout among Democrats so it weighs poll respondants who self-identify as Republicans higher than those that identify as Democrats. There was a lot of controversy about this a month or so back, but it is ONLY RASMUSSEN that weighs party identification, the other major pollsters do not. They may be Right in their methodology, pun intended, we shall see.

Even polls that attempt to gauge the Latino vote only reach higher income Latinos where someone is at home to answer the phone, who fit the someone-always-at-home profile of Republicans anyway. This is important in Colorado and Florida, but not so important in New Hampshire and Ohio.

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 18):
and has stopped ad buys in FL.

I'm certain thats not true. Source?

Pu
 
seb146
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Tue Oct 30, 2012 4:09 pm

Quoting Maverick623 (Reply 32):
He invested in a company that has a fund that runs a company that supplies ballot-counting machines.
Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 31):
From a business perspective there's quite a few degrees of separation in there which is why it has remained above board.

If he had put hit money in and kept it in for several years, I would be less suspicious. Why this company this year? Why not wait? As with the whole fake outrage over voter fraud that does not exist. Why this election are people outraged over voter fraud that does not exist?
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Starbuk7
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Tue Oct 30, 2012 4:11 pm

Funny how all the people above now complaining the the polls will be rigged by Romney are the same ones that are against voter ID cards saying there is no corruption at the polling booths, what hypocrisy!!
 
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akiss20
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Tue Oct 30, 2012 4:23 pm

Quoting Starbuk7 (Reply 42):
Funny how all the people above now complaining the the polls will be rigged by Romney are the same ones that are against voter ID cards saying there is no corruption at the polling booths, what hypocrisy!!

That's not hypocritical considering that they are two very different types of corruption. Voter ID laws are intended to fight a type of corruption for which there is no tangible evidence and in the meanwhile have been shown to make it difficult for low-income or otherwise partially dis-enfranchised voters to vote. The other is a form of corruption in which those who control the voting process have political/financial ties to candidates on the ballot. I am not making a judgement as to whether there is any truth to the idea that Romney is attempting to rig any votes, but I am just pointing out that you can believe both of the above statements without being hypocritical as both can be accurate without being contradicting one another.

It's called logic and critical thinking rather than spouting partisan BS.
Change will not come if we wait for some other person or some other time. We are the ones we've been waiting for. We are
 
D L X
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Tue Oct 30, 2012 4:27 pm

Quoting D L X (Reply 27):
Well, D L X, here's Rasmussen's current 'Electoral College Scoreboard' - scroll down for their Map. Please point out any areas where it differs materially from those of RealClearPolitics or FiveThirtyEight?

Well, for one, this is self-evident. You can review the Rasmussen report versus fivethirtyeight for yourself. One point I see is that fivethirtyeight predicts Obama winning Virginia, while Rasmussen suggests Romney is ahead. That's just one data point.

But, you've misunderstood what I have said anyway.

You're trying to show that Rasmussen does not have a right leaning bias by comparing it against another solitary poll, and a poll predictor. What I think you have misunderstood is that the fivethirtyeight model does not take any subjective comparison between Rasmussen and any other poll, but rather, compares the poll's history against the final results to determine how well they performed.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/methodology/
 
Superfly
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Tue Oct 30, 2012 6:16 pm

Quoting clemsonaj (Reply 34):
They have put themselves in a situation of being either completely discredited by this election, or becoming the standard bearer for all future polling attempts.


We shall see next week.

Quoting flipdewaf (Reply 36):
thugs? are they kenyan or indonesian?


Cute.
The ones in Chicago are American.



Surprised with all the free money and free Obamaphones given out in Ohio why any poll would show Romney anywhere close to Obama. The President should be 10-15 points ahead - if he were a good President.


If I'm not mistaken, the polls are over-sampling Democrats by an 8 point margin - the margin of difference in the 2008 turnout. There is no way in hell that there will be a repeat. Independents are going for Romney this time around.
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WestJet747
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Tue Oct 30, 2012 7:05 pm

Quoting seb146 (Reply 41):
Why this company this year? Why not wait?

Are you really asking why investors (whose primary function in life is to make money) would wait to invest until after election, when the company they're investing in is going to make money because of the election?

Quoting Superfly (Reply 33):
Obama and his Chicago thugs

This isn't the 1930's. There's no thugs in Chicago swaying the results of an upcoming election.

Quoting Superfly (Reply 45):
the polls are over-sampling Democrats by an 8 point margin

There's a slight failure in your logic: To "over-sample" one side or another, the researcher would have to know the outcome before the study is even commenced. To accuse a poll of "over-sampling" (which doesn't really exist, because the greater the sample size the better) would be to say that they weren't calling random households, but rather intentionally dialing numbers they knew with certainty to be Democrat households.
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Starbuk7
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Tue Oct 30, 2012 7:17 pm

Quoting AKiss20 (Reply 43):
Voter ID laws are intended to fight a type of corruption for which there is no tangible evidence and in the meanwhile have been shown to make it difficult for low-income or otherwise partially dis-enfranchised voters to vote.


Even if the ID's were free to obtain, who is spewing "partisan BS" now. Voting corruption is voting corruption now matter how you look at it and it needs to be curtailed before it starts on either side of the aisle, nothing "partisan" about it.

Each side should have an equal shot at getting elected so all types of voter fraud, be it ID cards or making sure the machines or the counters are not corrupt so that the elections are fair. Nothing "partisan" about this thinking at all!!!!
 
Superfly
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Tue Oct 30, 2012 7:25 pm

Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 46):
There's a slight failure in your logic




You lost the plot right there. This isn't my "logic" at all. I'm just telling you the facts.

http://www.policymic.com/articles/17...ing-in-ohio-oversampling-explained



Let's begin with Public Policy Polling (PPP) which showed on October 28 that Obama was leading 51% to 47% over Romney.

A closer look at the data shows that Democrats were oversampled by a whopping 8% (D+8). Women were also oversampled by the same 8% (W+8). Crosstabs within the poll show 88% of Democrats choosing Obama and 55% of women. You can see how this skews the results when you over-sample by such a large amount.


Now we'll take a look at the Gravis marketing results released October 28 that has Obama leading Romney by 50% to 49%. Not bad... a lead is a lead, right? Not so fast.

Gravis Marketing also oversampled Democrats by 8% (D+8).


So many polls have been doing this but I'm not going to waste time showing you every single poll that has been oversampling Democrats.

Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 46):
There's no thugs in Chicago


  
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casinterest
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RE: Romney Opens Lead In Ohio

Tue Oct 30, 2012 7:46 pm

Quoting Superfly (Reply 48):
). Women were also oversampled by the same 8% (W+8)

According to the poll they had 54% women respondants. Census has it as 51% of ohio. +3
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/39000.html

Quoting Superfly (Reply 48):
Democrats were oversampled by a whopping 8% (D+8).

How would you know this?
Ohio does not publish it's regisatration statisctics. 43-35-21 may very well be the mix.


My concern would be that 64% of the respondents were over 46.
Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.

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