bjorn14
Topic Author
Posts: 3552
Joined: Sat Feb 27, 2010 2:11 pm

US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 1:27 pm

Both the unemployment rate (7.9 percent) and the number of unemployed persons (12.3 million) were essentially unchanged in October, following declines in September. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for blacks increased to 14.3 percent in October, while the rates for adult men (7.3 percent), adult women (7.2 percent), teenagers (23.7 percent), whites (7.0 percent), and Hispanics (10.0 percent) showed little or no change. The jobless rate for Asians was 4.9 percent in October (not seasonally adjusted), down from 7.3 percent a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

In October, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 5.0 million. These individuals accounted for 40.6 percent of the unemployed. (See table A-12.)

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
"I want to know the voice of God the rest is just details" --A. Einstein
 
Klaus
Posts: 20594
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 1:39 pm

So what was it last year? And the year before that?
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 5367
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 1:45 pm

The numbers look good. Jobs increased. More peope came back into the work force from the "Not in the workforce" category.

The numbers also go agains the notion that last month's numbers were "fudged" as certain fake news websites railed on about.
Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
 
D L X
Posts: 11655
Joined: Thu May 27, 1999 3:30 am

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 1:49 pm

Talk about bias! The very report you just cited begins with:

"Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 171,000 in October, and the unemployment
rate was essentially unchanged at 7.9 percent
"
 
Quokkas
Posts: 1327
Joined: Fri Jan 27, 2012 5:51 pm

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 1:51 pm

Obviously there have been some job losses and some new jobs created, perhaps nowhere near enough new jobs and nowhere near enough full-time for those that need full-time work. But:
Quote:
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 171,000 in October, and the unemployment
rate was essentially unchanged
at 7.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported today. Employment rose in professional and business services, health care,
and retail trade.

Emphasis added to the source that you quoted. How does "unchanged" and "employment rose" - which is repeated a number of times in your source - lead you to select a headline "rises"? Even your own OP states "essentially unchanged", so why pick a headline that contradicts both the source and your OP?

[Edited 2012-11-02 06:55:47]
“Not to laugh, not to cry, not to hate, but understand.” Spinoza
 
D L X
Posts: 11655
Joined: Thu May 27, 1999 3:30 am

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 1:55 pm

Quoting Quokkas (Reply 4):
so why pick a headline that contradicts both the source and your OP?

You already know the answer to that question.

The Republican spin machine has to get in gear fast when a report like this comes out. It's hard to reconcile their recent discrediting of the unemployment percentage (stating that we should worry only about the number of jobs added) with this report which says that a whole bunch of jobs were added to the economy.
 
wolbo
Posts: 410
Joined: Fri Mar 30, 2007 10:09 pm

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 1:56 pm

Much to the undoubted chagrin of Bjorn14 the jobs report came in much better than expected see e.g. MarketWatch's headline "October payrolls surprise: 171,000 new jobs added "

171,000 jobs were added when the consensus expectation was 120,000.

Previous months figures were revised upwards:
"Companies also hired more employees in September and August than previously estimated. The number of new jobs created in September was revised up to 148,000 from a prior estimate of 114,000. And August's figure was revised to 192,000 from 142,000 to mark the best month of hiring since February."

This report also blows out of the water conspiracy theories about Obama's administration supposedly rigging the employment rate figures last month although I doubt those who put forward these theories will admit that.

That Bjorn14 chooses to leave out all the positive aspects only shows his myopic bias and speaks to the credibility of his arguments. No surprise there.

[Edited 2012-11-02 06:58:23]
 
User avatar
Dreadnought
Posts: 9832
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 6:31 pm

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 2:01 pm

So there you have it - the recovery has peaked out, and we have gotten to this point by maxing out our credit cards. 1.3% net growth, 8% unemployment is now what our economy looks like at the peak (I remember a lot of economists warning of that probability 3.5 years ago when Obama was talking about stimulus but not about actually fixing the mortgage problem or the debt). We are looking at Taxmaggedon on Jan 1st, which will cause a recession if it goes through, and will probably cause a recession if we delay all the tax increases and simply let the debt accumulate.

Basically, we are screwed. I'd hate to be the new president, whichever one he is, because in 4 years, he will certainly be the most hated man in America. Either We do an Argentina, devalue our currency, which would plunge the whole world into another tailspin, or he does the impossible and turns things around - but ends up pissing off everyone who now gets something from the government (the 47%) not to mention future recipients.

To this day, I still cannot fathom how people, who call themselves compassionate who care about others, could possibly support policies that simply racked up the debt that one day would have to be paid.

The piper is here, and he's a-knockin.
Forget dogs and cats - Spay and neuter your liberals.
 
D L X
Posts: 11655
Joined: Thu May 27, 1999 3:30 am

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 2:08 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 7):
To this day, I still cannot fathom how people, who call themselves compassionate who care about others, could possibly support policies that simply racked up the debt that one day would have to be paid.

Did you vote for candidates that supported deficit spending?

"I have met the enemy, and he is us!"
 
Quokkas
Posts: 1327
Joined: Fri Jan 27, 2012 5:51 pm

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 2:15 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 7):
So there you have it - the recovery has peaked out,

Has it? Economists normally rely on more than one month's data - usually two consecutive quarters are looked at to determine whether the economy has plateaued, entered a recession or whatever. You may be right but do these figures bear out what you are saying?
“Not to laugh, not to cry, not to hate, but understand.” Spinoza
 
aloges
Posts: 14842
Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2006 3:38 am

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 2:15 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 7):
So there you have it - the recovery has peaked out, and we have gotten to this point by maxing out our credit cards.

Previously, you were complaining that too few jobs were being added. Now that 171,000 jobs have been added in one month, you forget to mention that particular statistic... I wonder why that might be.

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 7):
Taxmaggedon

Oh no, wait, I don't wonder...   
Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.
 
User avatar
Dreadnought
Posts: 9832
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 6:31 pm

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 2:25 pm

Quoting aloges (Reply 10):
Previously, you were complaining that too few jobs were being added. Now that 171,000 jobs have been added in one month, you forget to mention that particular statistic... I wonder why that might be.

Because it is not a very meaningful statistic. Even if it was, 170K per month is just barely enough to keep up with population increase. What I look at is Total non-farm private employment divided by working age population. That is not looking so rosy.

Quoting Quokkas (Reply 9):
Has it? Economists normally rely on more than one month's data - usually two consecutive quarters are looked at to determine whether the economy has plateaued, entered a recession or whatever. You may be right but do these figures bear out what you are saying?

it's been pretty damned consistant, and remember that deficit spending has added several points to "growth" every quarter - but that is not real growth - that's just borrowed against growth in the future when you have to pay the bill.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/charts/united-states-gdp-growth.png?s=gdp+cqoq
Forget dogs and cats - Spay and neuter your liberals.
 
aloges
Posts: 14842
Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2006 3:38 am

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 2:50 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 11):
Because it is not a very meaningful statistic.

So why were you harping on about it earlier?
Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.
 
bjorn14
Topic Author
Posts: 3552
Joined: Sat Feb 27, 2010 2:11 pm

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 2:53 pm

Quoting D L X (Reply 3):
Talk about bias! The very report you just cited begins with:
Quoting Quokkas (Reply 4):
Even your own OP states "essentially unchanged", so why pick a headline that contradicts both the source and your OP?

Unemployment was 7.8% in September '12 and now it is 7.9% so according to my public school math that's an increase or rise. Statistically, one could argue that .1% is "essentially unchanged" but since so many on this site love to be technically correct I just wanted to help them out. This isn't even a dead cat bounce.
"I want to know the voice of God the rest is just details" --A. Einstein
 
Quokkas
Posts: 1327
Joined: Fri Jan 27, 2012 5:51 pm

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 2:56 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 11):

Thanks for providing the graph showing changes in GDP growth over the past few years. While it confirms a slowdown during Q1 and Q2, it shows that some ground has been regained rather than worsening into negative figures.

It is interesting to note that some analysts draw different conclusions. For example, BMO Capital describes the figures as

Quote:
"Job growth improved meaningfully in October, though a jump in labour force participation lifted the unemployment rate slightly.

"This suggests the economy is gathering a little momentum, and that GDP growth will improve further in Q4 from the 2.0 per cent pace of Q3."
Emphasis added.


Now I don't have a crystal ball so perhaps they are engaging in wishful thinking. Then again they may be taking these figures in conjunction with others that lead them to a more positive outlook.
“Not to laugh, not to cry, not to hate, but understand.” Spinoza
 
racko
Posts: 4548
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2001 12:06 am

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 3:10 pm

Don't you usually compare unemployment numbers to the same month last year to eliminate seasonal effects? At least that's how it is done here.
 
Quokkas
Posts: 1327
Joined: Fri Jan 27, 2012 5:51 pm

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 3:24 pm

Quoting racko (Reply 15):

Yes and no. Unemployment figures are often quoted as "seasonally adjusted" but for many purposes a twelve month period is considered too long. Hence quarterly figures are often used to indicate a trend.
“Not to laugh, not to cry, not to hate, but understand.” Spinoza
 
User avatar
pu
Posts: 1353
Joined: Sat Dec 03, 2011 1:08 am

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 3:39 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 7):
could possibly support policies that simply racked up the debt that one day would have to be paid.

US Debt held by the public at ~ 11 trillion or 66% of GDP is lower than most eveywhere in Europe or Japan and Singapore.

Also, America can and does simply monetise its debt on a massive scale without inflation, due in large part to the demand for dollars overseas, which the euro crises is helping nicely.

I don't think debt is anywhere near critical. America and other stable countries have had it higher with no doomsday.





Pu







http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np
US debt held by the public is the correct figure for comparing the USA to other countries since US debt held by the government itself ("intragovernmental debt") is not the type of "debt" reported by other nations.

www.cia.gov/library/publications/the...d-factbook/rankorder/2186rank.html
 
AeroWesty
Posts: 19551
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 7:37 am

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 4:47 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 7):
To this day, I still cannot fathom how people, who call themselves compassionate who care about others, could possibly support policies that simply racked up the debt that one day would have to be paid.

I was thinking the same thing when we were pouring hundreds of billions into foreign wars post-9/11 that we were supposed to be reimbursed for by thankful nations. Remember those claims? That's where a HUGE amount of the accelerated numbers of our mounting debt is stemming from. What happened to all that money? Do you see any of it? I sure don't.

There's an advert playing on some of the cable networks lately. It was banned by the major networks in 2010 as "too controversial": Why do great nations fail? Personally, I think it's a bit OTT, but an interesting message nonetheless.

While I'm a fiscal conservative for the most part, I do see the need to spend dollars to improve the infrastructure of America to help us stabilize and grow, and that includes for our intellectual assets as well as the traditional brick-and-mortar goods.

There are some tax subsidies that Romney proposes to get rid of, such as for alternative energy. I've not done an in-depth analysis of how much the economy receives back in terms of stimulation and jobs from these subsidies, but I'm seeing news articles appear in my Google Alerts about companies initiating layoffs of up to a quarter of their staff in this sector already due to the uncertainty of whether the Investment Tax Credit will be extended or not. Those unemployed are already showing up in the latest figures, both white and blue collar jobs.

I don't believe one can call out those "compassionate about others" and question their commitment to a thriving economy in the same breath, while ignoring how much money was wasted in prior years that we're now burdened with in terms of debt.
International Homo of Mystery
 
User avatar
DocLightning
Posts: 19764
Joined: Wed Nov 16, 2005 8:51 am

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 7:06 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 7):
So there you have it - the recovery has peaked out,

Yes. That's it. Clearly it will only get worse from here for ever and ever and ever and ever... unless Obama is gone because he is clearly the only factor in this.

Except just last month (and every month before) you have gone on and on about the participation rate and how it is the true measure of job growth.

Well, it went up, didn't it?

But now you ignore that because you don't like the result because it might possibly suggest that Obama is doing a good job. You can't accept that conclusion, so you reject the facts.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 18):
While I'm a fiscal conservative for the most part, I do see the need to spend dollars to improve the infrastructure of America to help us stabilize and grow, and that includes for our intellectual assets as well as the traditional brick-and-mortar goods.

That is absolutely consistent with fiscal conservatism. Fiscal conservatism should hold that government spending should be restricted to only those services that really cannot be profitably performed by the private sector and infrastructure development is one of those things. There are too many financial, legal, and regulatory barriers to having private, for-profit companies funding, planning, and building road and rail. Or providing disaster relief. Etc. Another central tenet of fiscal conservatism is that your spending should not outstrip your revenue.

What the current GOP is espousing is not fiscal conservatism, but is rather so internally inconsistent that it has absolutely no philosophy attached to it at all. It basically comes down to: "More spending on the stuff I like/stuff that gets me kickbacks from my buddies in the defense and security industries, less spending on the stuff I don't like/stuff that doesn't get me a kickback." And yet, even the GOP has historically been the largest accruers of debt. It is NOT fiscal conservatism to cut taxes while increasing spending. And yet that is exactly what Romney wants to do. Add a TRILLION extra dollars to the defense budget that the Pentagon doesn't even want! And does his budget plan make any provision to pay for it? No.

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 7):
To this day, I still cannot fathom how people, who call themselves compassionate who care about others, could possibly support policies that simply racked up the debt that one day would have to be paid.

Nor can I. The budget as it stands could be mostly balanced by eliminating the Bush tax cuts on the wealthiest Americans. It was, after all, balanced before those tax cuts went into effect.

And yet the GOP will not let it happen to the point of bringing us to the point of the fiscal cliff.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
AeroWesty
Posts: 19551
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 7:37 am

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 7:27 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 19):
Another central tenet of fiscal conservatism is that your spending should not outstrip your revenue.

That's one reason why I qualified my statement, since I don't believe that debt, if it's for infrastructure, is a bad thing. For instance, I believe that a proper WPA-style program in this day and age could result in both improved infrastructure and put valuable job skills to work, rather than just handing out unemployment checks. If we're going to be spending the money, we might as well get something tangible in return for it.
International Homo of Mystery
 
User avatar
DocLightning
Posts: 19764
Joined: Wed Nov 16, 2005 8:51 am

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 7:32 pm

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 20):
That's one reason why I qualified my statement, since I don't believe that debt, if it's for infrastructure, is a bad thing. For instance, I believe that a proper WPA-style program in this day and age could result in both improved infrastructure and put valuable job skills to work, rather than just handing out unemployment checks. If we're going to be spending the money, we might as well get something tangible in return for it.

Agreed. When you buy a house, you don't really lose money. The house has value and adds value. The same is true of infrastructure.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
BMI727
Posts: 11103
Joined: Mon Feb 02, 2009 9:29 pm

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 8:00 pm

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 18):
While I'm a fiscal conservative for the most part, I do see the need to spend dollars to improve the infrastructure of America to help us stabilize and grow,

If it's a project that needs doing, it needs to be done no matter what the economy looks like. Spending for the sake of spending is pointless.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 19):
Fiscal conservatism should hold that government spending should be restricted to only those services that really cannot be profitably performed by the private sector and infrastructure development is one of those things.

...in some cases. Even so, there needs to be a stronger local component of funding for such projects. Having Uncle Sam drop off a sack of cash on everyone's doorstep is a great way to waste a lot of money. You can't build for building's sake, it's too expensive and it doesn't fix the economy anyway. The New Deal proved that much.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 19):
The budget as it stands could be mostly balanced by eliminating the Bush tax cuts on the wealthiest Americans. It was, after all, balanced before those tax cuts went into effect.

Raising taxes during a recession is a good way to stomp on any sign of a recovery.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
mt99
Posts: 6166
Joined: Wed May 26, 1999 5:41 am

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 8:08 pm

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 22):
Raising taxes during a recession is a good way to stomp on any sign of a recovery.

And Romney's Loophole closing (do we know which ones yet?) wont result in an effective tax increase?
Step into my office, baby
 
User avatar
DocLightning
Posts: 19764
Joined: Wed Nov 16, 2005 8:51 am

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 8:10 pm

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 22):

Raising taxes during a recession is a good way to stomp on any sign of a recovery.

Except raising taxes on the upper bracket has no such effect.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/02/bu...ices-report-on-tax-rates.html?_r=0

Of course, the GOP suppressed the nonpartisan report because, as we have seen from this new GOP, facts and figures are meanignless if they conflict with dogma.

Yet the world still goes around the Sun.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
BMI727
Posts: 11103
Joined: Mon Feb 02, 2009 9:29 pm

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 8:17 pm

Quoting mt99 (Reply 23):
And Romney's Loophole closing (do we know which ones yet?) wont result in an effective tax increase?

It will, and it's probably a bad idea. Of course since only the rich use tax loopholes, or so the left tells me...

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 24):
Except raising taxes on the upper bracket has no such effect.

Even if that's true, it's Robin Hood economics. You take from the rich to give to the poor without actually giving the rich anything for it. It's a backwards plan and eventually shaking the trees won't help anymore.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
D L X
Posts: 11655
Joined: Thu May 27, 1999 3:30 am

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 8:29 pm

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 22):
Raising taxes during a recession is a good way to stomp on any sign of a recovery.
Quoting BMI727 (Reply 22):
Spending for the sake of spending is pointless.

These two sentences cannot possibly be true at the same time, when you think about it.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 25):
Of course since only the rich use tax loopholes

The "loophole" he has implied he will close (while artfully dodging the question when asked directly) is the mortgage interest deduction. If that goes away, it will be the largest tax increase on the middle class in the history of the nation.

But yeah, it would allow us to pay off the debt. On the backs of the middle class.
 
AeroWesty
Posts: 19551
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 7:37 am

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 8:31 pm

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 22):
If it's a project that needs doing, it needs to be done no matter what the economy looks like.

There's a lot of basic infrastructure that has been let to lapse into disrepair, plus plenty of opportunities to improve worker skills and reinvest in America with a WPA-style program. My point—and I was very clear on this—is that if we're going to be doing deficit spending to support unemployment checks, that it would benefit our nation and workforce to get something tangible in return for those dollars.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 22):
You can't build for building's sake, it's too expensive and it doesn't fix the economy anyway. The New Deal proved that much.

Perhaps you should bone up on history a bit.

"1933 to 1939 witnessed a 60% increase [in GDP]; the amount of consumer products bought increased by 40% while private investment in industry increased by 5 times in just six years."

Source: New Deal Success
International Homo of Mystery
 
BMI727
Posts: 11103
Joined: Mon Feb 02, 2009 9:29 pm

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 8:48 pm

Quoting D L X (Reply 26):
These two sentences cannot possibly be true at the same time, when you think about it.

Yes, they can be. People aren't spending money for the good of the economy, they're spending because they want or need something. That's real demand, rather than a government produced bubble that will need to be paid back.

Quoting D L X (Reply 26):
The "loophole" he has implied he will close (while artfully dodging the question when asked directly) is the mortgage interest deduction.

That would be stupid and suicidal. It won't happen. I do, however, hope that the government cheerleading of home ownership, whether one can afford it or not, will end for good.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 27):
My point—and I was very clear on this—is that if we're going to be doing deficit spending to support unemployment checks, that it would benefit our nation and workforce to get something tangible in return for those dollars.

Then we better start hacking up social programs so there's money to pay for it.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 27):
Perhaps you should bone up on history a bit.

"1933 to 1939 witnessed a 60% increase [in GDP]; the amount of consumer products bought increased by 40% while private investment in industry increased by 5 times in just six years."

The New Deal was a failure, and, you should also check out what happened to tax rates during that time. FDR didn't end the Depression, he just spent a lot of money. It took the massive ramp up to WWII for a recovery to really take hold.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 27):
There's a lot of basic infrastructure that has been let to lapse into disrepair, plus plenty of opportunities to improve worker skills and reinvest in America with a WPA-style program.

There shouldn't be any WPA style program. If something needs doing the government should collect bids and pick the best one. The winning bidder should be the one responsible for hiring whomever they need to hire. More bureaucracy will just lower productivity and increase costs.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
D L X
Posts: 11655
Joined: Thu May 27, 1999 3:30 am

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 8:55 pm

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 28):
People aren't spending money for the good of the economy, they're spending because they want or need something.

Right. And when they spend money, they are inherently buying something FROM somebody. That somebody uses the money to buy other things, put a roof over his head, put food in his belly, etc. etc.

That is the good of the economy.
 
AeroWesty
Posts: 19551
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 7:37 am

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 8:58 pm

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 28):
Then we better start hacking up social programs so there's money to pay for it.

This is where your arguments go into The Big Fail. In your posts you're simply not addressing my original point that there should be/have been an opportunity to get a return on our investment in unemployment checks. That money has been paying out in increased/extended benefits—up to 99 weeks—from the outset of the current financial crisis/recession in 2008. The money is continuing to go out and will continue to go out with or without a works project.

Honestly, I don't know how to make it any plainer for you.
International Homo of Mystery
 
Mir
Posts: 19093
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 3:55 am

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 9:00 pm

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 25):
Even if that's true, it's Robin Hood economics. You take from the rich to give to the poor without actually giving the rich anything for it.

The alternative is to take from the poor to cover the cost of the debt while allowing the rich, who were at least as culpable for getting us into the mess we're in, to go on with life as normal. That's not right.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 25):
It's a backwards plan and eventually shaking the trees won't help anymore.

It's not supposed to go on forever. As soon as we're out of debt hole that we're in, revisit the tax rates and reduce them again.

-Mir
7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
 
BMI727
Posts: 11103
Joined: Mon Feb 02, 2009 9:29 pm

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 9:02 pm

Quoting D L X (Reply 29):
That is the good of the economy.

It's also real demand, not government stimulus spending for spending's sake.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
D L X
Posts: 11655
Joined: Thu May 27, 1999 3:30 am

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 9:02 pm

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 32):
It's also real demand, not government stimulus spending for spending's sake.

You have made a distinction without a difference.
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 5367
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 9:03 pm

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 28):
That's real demand, rather than a government produced bubble that will need to be paid back.

But how is it a Government produced bubble? The Government controls money flow through the treasury. By spending on anything, the government is also spending on Private companies to do jobs. Getting federal works in place such as bridges, roads ,and airports very directly affects the "We Built it" contruction companies ,and their suppliers that provide the big equipment and workers.

The fact that the Government has a balancing problem will eventually affect inflation, but the money is being spent to keep the econonmy going when the banks that are supposed to loan money go into shock after a financial crisis.
Without the government money being spent, the recession would have been a depression.
Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
 
User avatar
Dreadnought
Posts: 9832
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 6:31 pm

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 9:05 pm

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 27):
"1933 to 1939 witnessed a 60% increase [in GDP]; the amount of consumer products bought increased by 40% while private investment in industry increased by 5 times in just six years."

33 to 39 indeed witnessed a 60% increase in GDP, but was still no higher in 39 than what it was in 1930. The economy bottomed out in 1933, after having lost half of GDP since 1929 (Nominal dollars GDP of $105 billion in 1929 to about $56 billion in 1933. By 1939 it was back up to about $92 billion - about where the US Economy was in 1924.

It's too easy to say that everything is rosy because it's better than when you are at the bottom of the trough. You have the rebound effect after all recessions - the question is whether the economy is doing better than the rebound effect (if the government had done nothing at all) or worse, due to government intervention. I contend that that briefly it did better, but now it is worse. In other words, we would be better off now if the 6 trillion in stimulus spending had not been spent.

And yes, I said $6 trillion in stimulus. Any deficit spending is effectively stimulus (unless it is foreign aid or something like that).
Forget dogs and cats - Spay and neuter your liberals.
 
BMI727
Posts: 11103
Joined: Mon Feb 02, 2009 9:29 pm

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 9:08 pm

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 30):
In your posts you're simply not addressing my original point that there should be/have been an opportunity to get a return on our investment in unemployment checks. That money has been paying out in increased/extended benefits—up to 99 weeks—from the outset of the current financial crisis/recession in 2008.

That's why you can't have a government full of social programs that spend a lot of money on nothing. Which is basically the same as stimulus to bring money for projects nobody really needs.

Quoting Mir (Reply 31):
The alternative is to take from the poor to cover the cost of the debt while allowing the rich, who were at least as culpable for getting us into the mess we're in, to go on with life as normal. That's not right.

The right way is to cut social programs and increase funding for education and making sure that defense and infrastructure are taken care of, while holding the line on taxes. No economy ever grew because of a tax hike.

Quoting Mir (Reply 31):
t's not supposed to go on forever. As soon as we're out of debt hole that we're in, revisit the tax rates and reduce them again.

Why would any poor people vote for that? It's free money to them. They'll just keep going back to the well and get the rich people to pay for whatever social program they want. And the debt hole isn't going to get any smaller if the government insists on going down the failed stimulus route.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
mt99
Posts: 6166
Joined: Wed May 26, 1999 5:41 am

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 9:08 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 35):
Any deficit spending is effectively stimulus

FEMA included?
Step into my office, baby
 
AeroWesty
Posts: 19551
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 7:37 am

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 9:13 pm

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 36):
That's why you can't have a government full of social programs that spend a lot of money on nothing.

Since you continue to avoid addressing my point, and are simply going off on your own tangents, I've got to conclude that you believe that spending dollars while receiving nothing in return is what you advocate.
International Homo of Mystery
 
BMI727
Posts: 11103
Joined: Mon Feb 02, 2009 9:29 pm

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 9:16 pm

Quoting casinterest (Reply 34):
But how is it a Government produced bubble?

Because it's robbing Peter to pay Paul. The government can pump a bunch of money into the economy by building a bridge, but it's going to have to suck all that money back out to pay for it. Now that's okay if you actually need the bridge, but that means it should be built whether you're in a depression or a boom. If you need a bridge, you need a bridge, which is fine since the government needs to spend on some things. But spending just to stimulate the economy is a poor idea because those bills don't evaporate.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
User avatar
Dreadnought
Posts: 9832
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 6:31 pm

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 9:21 pm

Quoting mt99 (Reply 37):
FEMA included?

Yes, FEMA is stimulus (if it is paid for by addig to the debt). Strictly speaking, since money is fungible, the entire deficit (difference between revenue and outlays) is stimulus spending, regardless what it is spent for, UNLESS the buyers of the issued T-Bills are all private investors within the US.

Put in another way: Stimulus spending = Federal Outlays - Federal reciepts - Private US-based purchases of T-Bills.

Until we started monetizing the debt (Fed buying T-Bills), you could say that deficit spending was not stimulus, as most T-Bills were purchased in the US by private investors, pension funds etc. Money was being removed from the economy (T-bill purchases) and then returned via government spending. But that is no longer so much the case, as the Fed is buying the biggest chunk of those T-Bills.
Forget dogs and cats - Spay and neuter your liberals.
 
BMI727
Posts: 11103
Joined: Mon Feb 02, 2009 9:29 pm

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 9:27 pm

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 38):
Since you continue to avoid addressing my point, and are simply going off on your own tangents, I've got to conclude that you believe that spending dollars while receiving nothing in return is what you advocate.

Not at all. You have to cut those social safety net programs to avoid paying out money for no return and also cut stimuli to avoid paying out money for unneeded programs. If the government is writing a check, they should be providing something necessary and useful for it. (So not artwork)
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
bjorn14
Topic Author
Posts: 3552
Joined: Sat Feb 27, 2010 2:11 pm

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 9:33 pm

What I find amazing is that black unemployment is 14.3% and black teen employment is over 40% but yet they will go to the polls to keep themselves in chains (aka Joe Biden gaffe)
"I want to know the voice of God the rest is just details" --A. Einstein
 
AeroWesty
Posts: 19551
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 7:37 am

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 9:34 pm

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 41):
You have to cut those social safety net programs to avoid paying out money for no return and also cut stimuli to avoid paying out money for unneeded programs.

Monday-morning quarterbacking. The bulk of the money has already been spent. If you're not interested in addressing the point that it could have been better spent by receiving something tangible in return, I don't understand why you're wasting time typing.
International Homo of Mystery
 
mt99
Posts: 6166
Joined: Wed May 26, 1999 5:41 am

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 9:34 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 40):
Yes, FEMA is stimulus (if it is paid for by addig to the debt). Strictly speaking, since money is fungible, the entire deficit (difference between revenue and outlays) is stimulus spending

So, spending on FEMA is immoral?

"We cannot — we cannot afford to do those things without jeopardizing the future for our kids. It is simply immoral, in my view, for us to continue to rack up larger and larger debts and pass them on to our kids, knowing full well that we'll all be dead and gone before it's paid off. It makes no sense at all."" -

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/hurr...rikes-east-coast-gallery-1.1194577
Step into my office, baby
 
D L X
Posts: 11655
Joined: Thu May 27, 1999 3:30 am

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 9:34 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 35):
Any deficit spending is effectively stimulus

So, I'll ask again: have you advocated for or voted for candidates that supported or executed deficit spending?
 
User avatar
DeltaMD90
Posts: 8245
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 11:25 pm

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 9:45 pm

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 42):
What I find amazing is that black unemployment is 14.3% and black teen employment is over 40% but yet they will go to the polls to keep themselves in chains (aka Joe Biden gaffe)

It is simple, as long as they feel that the President can do a better job than Romney then they vote for the President.

Add that many believe the President is doing a good job and Bush of the past or Republicans of the present have thwarted the economy and bam, the President gets votes.

^^this is not something that needs a debate, it is simple human decision making. You may disagree with these arguments, and that's quite all right! But it's easy to see why someone would vote that way, even if you disagree
Ironically I have never flown a Delta MD-90 :)
 
User avatar
Dreadnought
Posts: 9832
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 6:31 pm

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 10:29 pm

Quoting mt99 (Reply 44):
So, spending on FEMA is immoral?

I never said or meant any such thing. I just said that it is essentially stimulus - even by definition. What may be a moral imperative (helping the poor) may also be fiscally irresponsible. If your family makes $50,000 per year, and you have 2 kids, would you be upset if your wife wrote a check to the salvation army (or name your charity) for $20,000?

Quoting D L X (Reply 45):
So, I'll ask again: have you advocated for or voted for candidates that supported or executed deficit spending?

Yes, but none to the current level. A little deficit is manageable (even though it's still stupid). But when you are habitually spending 30-40% more than you bring in, you deserve to be beaten with a 9-iron.

[Edited 2012-11-02 15:32:48]
Forget dogs and cats - Spay and neuter your liberals.
 
AeroWesty
Posts: 19551
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 7:37 am

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 10:48 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 47):
But when you are habitually spending 30-40% more than you bring in, you deserve to be beaten with a 9-iron.

So may we safely assume you've voted for Democrats then for President traditionally? You know, voting by your principles?

Despite what you heard, GOP doesn't reduce deficits

"The belief that Republicans are more fiscally conservative than Democrats is an old one. It's so deeply ingrained in the American myth that it's hard to know where it started. But it's completely, factually, undeniably wrong — and has been so for awhile.

In their book "Presimetrics: What the Facts Tell Us About How the Presidents Measure Up On the Issues We Care About", economist Mike Kimel and journalist Michael E. Kanell calculate the change in government spending under every president from Dwight Eisenhower to George W. Bush.

They found that government spending, relative to the size of the economy, increased much faster under Republican administrations than under Democratic ones. George W. Bush presided over a greater increase in government spending than any president since Lyndon Johnson, and George H.W. Bush wasn't far behind. Bill Clinton, in contrast, was the only president since Eisenhower to actually reduce government spending. Even Reagan didn't do that."
International Homo of Mystery
 
BMI727
Posts: 11103
Joined: Mon Feb 02, 2009 9:29 pm

RE: US Unemployment Rises To 7.9%

Fri Nov 02, 2012 10:48 pm

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 43):
Monday-morning quarterbacking.

We've known that the New Deal was a failure for seven decades. We've seen the national debt headed north since the Great Society programs from the 1960s. We've known that Keynesian economic policies don't work.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 43):
If you're not interested in addressing the point that it could have been better spent by receiving something tangible in return,

It's not better spending at all. Either you're funding projects that are actually needed, which should be happening anyway rather than just part of some stimulus package, or you're funding projects that aren't needed, in which case you're just spending money.

Whether you're just writing unemployment checks or paying people to build useless projects doesn't matter: it's still waste. "Something tangible" is not the same as "something useful." Paying someone to sit on their ass is the same as paying them to build something useless.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: aerlingus747, Kiwirob, Yahoo [Bot] and 20 guests