Obama still poised to win 303 electoral votes on Tuesday
As the last full day of the 2012 presidential campaign gets under way, the Signal's prediction remains the same as it was nearly nine months ago: President Barack Obama will win reelection with 303 electoral votes, winning Ohio and Virginia but losing Florida to Gov. Mitt Romney.
It goes on to give some interesting statements:
There is only about a 15 percent chance that we'll actually be correct, based on our prediction model, given the many combinations of close states that could go either way. Obama has a 24.8 percent likelihood of winning Florida, while Romney has a 40.8 percent chance of snagging Virginia and a 19.9 percent chance of securing Ohio. Romney needs to sweep all three states to secure the election.
This may make it seem like all hope is lost for Romney — the odds of him defending Florida and taking Ohio and Virginia are about 6 percent if you simply multiply the probabilities. While the Signal is predicting an Obama victory, we're not calling it with 94 percent certainty. That is because state elections are not entirely independent events. The polls could be systematically biased toward Obama based on faulty assumptions about voter turnout, or the final polls could fail to capture a late surge in support for the Republican candidate.
Plenty to chew on here for both sides, however one stubborn truth is:
The math is pretty basic: Romney can only be as likely to win the country as he is to win Ohio. Romney is currently 19.9 percent likely to carry Ohio. Romney can still win this election, but Obama is heavily favored as we head into the final stretch.