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Revelation
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Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Tue Nov 06, 2012 11:34 am

Hmm, let's see if this bold prediction becomes true:

Obama still poised to win 303 electoral votes on Tuesday

Quote:

As the last full day of the 2012 presidential campaign gets under way, the Signal's prediction remains the same as it was nearly nine months ago: President Barack Obama will win reelection with 303 electoral votes, winning Ohio and Virginia but losing Florida to Gov. Mitt Romney.


It goes on to give some interesting statements:

Quote:

There is only about a 15 percent chance that we'll actually be correct, based on our prediction model, given the many combinations of close states that could go either way. Obama has a 24.8 percent likelihood of winning Florida, while Romney has a 40.8 percent chance of snagging Virginia and a 19.9 percent chance of securing Ohio. Romney needs to sweep all three states to secure the election.

This may make it seem like all hope is lost for Romney — the odds of him defending Florida and taking Ohio and Virginia are about 6 percent if you simply multiply the probabilities. While the Signal is predicting an Obama victory, we're not calling it with 94 percent certainty. That is because state elections are not entirely independent events. The polls could be systematically biased toward Obama based on faulty assumptions about voter turnout, or the final polls could fail to capture a late surge in support for the Republican candidate.

Plenty to chew on here for both sides, however one stubborn truth is:

Quote:

The math is pretty basic: Romney can only be as likely to win the country as he is to win Ohio. Romney is currently 19.9 percent likely to carry Ohio. Romney can still win this election, but Obama is heavily favored as we head into the final stretch.
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casinterest
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Tue Nov 06, 2012 2:21 pm

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...ama-leave-romney-with-longer-odds/

He is now pasting florida as slight obama. If he wins Florida with virginia, the total may be in the 320-330 range.
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sw733
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Tue Nov 06, 2012 2:23 pm

Not gonna lie, I kind of wish I were in Vegas to put some legit money on stuff like this  
 
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DocLightning
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Tue Nov 06, 2012 2:29 pm

Quoting sw733 (Reply 2):

Not gonna lie, I kind of wish I were in Vegas to put some legit money on stuff like this

You're a bit late, but this is what InTrade is for.
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kngkyle
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Tue Nov 06, 2012 2:41 pm

I think he'll narrowly take Florida as well, bringing the total to 332 to Romney's 206.
 
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DarkSnowyNight
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Tue Nov 06, 2012 2:56 pm

Quoting kngkyle (Reply 4):

Well that would be good, as it will quiet down the fuss WRT Ohio. While Obama's second term may as well be pre-ordained at this point, I think the last thing anyone wants is to have the inevitable conclusion drawn out longer than needed. I don't think we'll have a problem in Ohio on the scale of FL in 2000, the less opportunity there is for that to "matter", the better.
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Rara
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Tue Nov 06, 2012 3:12 pm

If Obama won Florida that'd be great, because then I could just go to bed and not miss anything.
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racko
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Tue Nov 06, 2012 3:46 pm

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QdpGd74DrBM&feature=youtu.be

If all voting machines work like this it'll be a Romney landslide.  
 
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Aesma
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Tue Nov 06, 2012 4:54 pm

If things drag down a little but not too much, at what time should the results be known ?
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DocLightning
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Tue Nov 06, 2012 4:55 pm

Quoting Aesma (Reply 8):

If things drag down a little but not too much, at what time should the results be known ?

In France, tomorrow morning. Don't stay up all night.

I estimate that here on the West Coast we'll know about 10PM which is about 6AM your time, no?

[Edited 2012-11-06 08:59:43]
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Tugger
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Tue Nov 06, 2012 4:58 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 9):
I estimate that here on the West Coast we'll know about 10AM which is about 6AM your time, no?

I think you mean 10PM, correct?

Tugg
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Tue Nov 06, 2012 4:59 pm

Quoting tugger (Reply 10):
I think you mean 10PM, correct?

Yup. Fixed it.
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Tue Nov 06, 2012 5:08 pm

Quoting Aesma (Reply 8):
If things drag down a little but not too much, at what time should the results be known ?

If a clear winner in Pennsylvania isn't known soon after the polls close, this could drag out for a while, is my feeling. That's a state which should go to Obama, but if it turns out to be a real swing state, it could be an indicator of other races which could turn out as too close to call until a substantial number of votes are counted.
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casinterest
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Tue Nov 06, 2012 5:09 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 9):
In France, tomorrow morning. Don't stay up all night.

I estimate that here on the West Coast we'll know about 10PM which is about 6AM your time, no

If Florida is close and Ohio is not(Obama favor) at 10:00 P.M EST, then I would think the networks will make a call by 10 or 11 EDT. Right as the majority of the west coast closes.


//edited to delete removed content.

[Edited 2012-11-06 09:17:38]
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Tue Nov 06, 2012 5:09 pm

Quoting racko (Reply 7):
If all voting machines work like this it'll be a Romney landslide.  

I know you posted this as a joke, but really, if someone was going to make corrupt voting machines, would they make it THAT blatantly obvious? I figured they'd show Obama as highlighted then secretly count it towards Romney...
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windy95
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Tue Nov 06, 2012 5:14 pm

Quoting casinterest (Reply 13):
Quoting L-188 (Reply 7):
We cant afford four more years of obummer
it's attitudes like this that we can't affor

No four more years of Obummer will drag us into the the abyss.
 
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Aesma
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Tue Nov 06, 2012 5:16 pm

I'm 6 hours before east coast and 9 hours before west coast so at 10PM east it's 4AM for me and 10PM west is 7AM. Thanks for your answers, I guess we'll see as I don't work tomorrow.
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AeroWesty
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Tue Nov 06, 2012 5:17 pm

No matter if you like him or not, rude names for our President show a lack of respect for the office. I'd hoped for better.
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Tue Nov 06, 2012 5:18 pm

Quoting windy95 (Reply 15):
No four more years of Obummer will drag us into the the abyss.

Actually, no it wouldn't. So stop lying as you do not anything more than any of the rest of us. We have survived 4 years and 8 years of other "terrible" Presidents and the country will "survive" which ever person is elected President today. And I wish people would stop the hyperbole.

This is a great nation and will do just fine ultimately.

Tugg

[Edited 2012-11-06 09:22:20]
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Tue Nov 06, 2012 5:19 pm

To be fair, he isn't poised to win 303... he has the greatest chance in a plurality of outcomes. In fact, Romney has a greater chance of winning than the President getting (exactly) 303
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Revelation
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:46 pm

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 12):
If a clear winner in Pennsylvania isn't known soon after the polls close, this could drag out for a while, is my feeling. That's a state which should go to Obama, but if it turns out to be a real swing state, it could be an indicator of other races which could turn out as too close to call until a substantial number of votes are counted.

Indeed, as the article says:

Quoting Revelation (Thread starter):
That is because state elections are not entirely independent events. The polls could be systematically biased toward Obama based on faulty assumptions about voter turnout, or the final polls could fail to capture a late surge in support for the Republican candidate.

So if the swing states really do swing it could indicate that the polls have faulty assumptions and it could not turn out well for Obama.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 19):
To be fair, he isn't poised to win 303... he has the greatest chance in a plurality of outcomes. In fact, Romney has a greater chance of winning than the President getting (exactly) 303

Seems you are correct, given that the article says:

Quoting Revelation (Thread starter):
There is only about a 15 percent chance that we'll actually be correct,

and:

Quoting Revelation (Thread starter):
Romney can only be as likely to win the country as he is to win Ohio. Romney is currently 19.9 percent likely to carry Ohio.

So they put Romney's odds of winning right around 20%.
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Mir
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Tue Nov 06, 2012 8:32 pm

Here's a pretty cool interactive page from the NY Times on what the various pathways to election for both of the candidates are.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...tics/paths-to-the-white-house.html

Obama has 431 pathways (i.e. combinations of wins in various states) that would result in a win. Romney has 76. If Obama wins in Ohio and two other states (except if one of them is New Hampshire), he wins.

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EA CO AS
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:12 pm

I'm predicting Romney 305, Obama 233. Just my $0.02...
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:41 pm

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 19):
To be fair, he isn't poised to win 303... he has the greatest chance in a plurality of outcomes. In fact, Romney has a greater chance of winning than the President getting (exactly) 303

You're right here. I love statistics.  

In Bayesian statistics, probabilities have a probability of their own, so to say. You not only predict what the result will be, but also how sure you are - how much you're willing to bet on your prediction.

In that example, the council of Elrond said they were willing to bet the most money on 303 electoral votes.


David
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:27 pm

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 22):
I'm predicting Romney 305, Obama 233. Just my $0.02...

This is quite funny:

http://www.theawl.com/2012/11/wholl-...e-the-wrongest-pundits-of-them-all

Quote:
Jim Cramer of CNBC's "Mad Money," in the Washington Post, Nov. 3, predicts that Obama will win 440 electoral votes to Romney's 98. "The presidential race is nowhere as close as the polls suggest."

Don't think I'd even put 2 cents on that one.
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casinterest
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:42 pm

Quoting zckls04 (Reply 24):
Don't think I'd even put 2 cents on that one.

Yeah, I think Cramer's is just as bad as Karl Rove's prediction
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:51 pm

I keep running my predictions and I get 290.
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:57 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 9):
In France, tomorrow morning. Don't stay up all night.

Many expats here apparently do. Amerika Haus in Munich hosts a party tonight, and I wish I was there, but I am getting tired already.

That said, Berlin would be even better. Check out pic #5 here
http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fo...n-sekunde-fotostrecke-89414-4.html
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Tue Nov 06, 2012 11:02 pm

Quoting NoUFO (Reply 27):
and if you don't understand, you are *truly* gay.


Guess I pass the test.  
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Ken777
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Tue Nov 06, 2012 11:09 pm

Looking at my voting place at 4:30 PM, two thirds of the precinct had already voted and there were two and a half hours left for the "final third"

A very heavy turnout in a very red state. (We're so red that the polls don't even bother with us.)

What you will see not are the folks that vote after work. A probable surge from people with a job.

Considering the heavy voting here I'll go with Romney ending up with a strong popular vote - maybe even beating Obama like the 2000 election, but not getting the EC votes necessary.

Quoting windy95 (Reply 15):
No four more years of Obummer will drag us into the the abyss.

No matter how he tries he won'd throw us deeper into the abyss than W did.

An unnecessary 10 year war.

The Great Recession.

And you're worried about Obama?   

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 22):
I'm predicting Romney 305, Obama 233. Just my $0.02...

And you could be right. It ain't over until the results are in and there could well be surprises.

The big news (outside of who wins) will be any voter obstructions in Florida and Ohio. Potentially in other states, but I can see issues requiring a Federal response no illegal obstructions. I can also see a strong reaction to those causing the obstructions in the 2014 elections.
 
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Wed Nov 07, 2012 3:41 am

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 22):
I'm predicting Romney 305, Obama 233. Just my $0.02...

Now that is some wishfull thinking (unfortunately)
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EA CO AS
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Wed Nov 07, 2012 4:26 am

Congratulations to President Obama and his team on a hard-fought win. I hope my fellow conservatives will be gracious in defeat.
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Wed Nov 07, 2012 4:31 am

I'm thinking Obama gets 319 electoral votes, if Virginia goes Romney, Florida Obama, and Nevada Obama.
 
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DarkSnowyNight
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Wed Nov 07, 2012 4:47 am

Quoting Aloha717200 (Reply 32):

Yeah, it looks like this race won't be anything like as close as some were hoping for. He's looking about 90 votes ahead.
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D L X
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Wed Nov 07, 2012 4:51 am

Quoting Aloha717200 (Reply 32):
if Virginia goes Romney

It's looking like Obama is going to win Virginia. Nearly all the pro-Romney precincts have reported, and Obama has the lead.

http://electionresults.virginia.gov/...=3545232527424045364&osn=0&map=CTY


It's looking like 331 electoral votes for Obama.
 
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Wed Nov 07, 2012 4:57 am

So net result is that Obama only lost two states from 2008. North Carolina and Indiana. Pretty phenomenal considering how close this race was.
 
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Wed Nov 07, 2012 5:05 am

From here in Europe at this time the BBC confirms an Obama win.

President Barack Obama wins re-election

President Barack Obama has been re-elected to a second term, defeating Republican challenger Mitt Romney.
With results in from most states, America's first black president has secured the 270 votes in the electoral college needed to win the race.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-20233064

281 electors for Obama says FoxNews - edited... now up to 290

Surprising but so it goes.
Santa Claus is back in town.

 

[Edited 2012-11-06 21:12:50]
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casinterest
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Wed Nov 07, 2012 5:46 am

According to CNN Obama just won Virginia

There goes 303

Waiting on Fl for my 330+
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PHX787
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Wed Nov 07, 2012 6:10 am

Quoting casinterest (Reply 37):
There goes 303

Wow, I guess I gotta concede this. Too much denial  
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Wed Nov 07, 2012 6:11 am

Great to see humanity and rightfulness win.
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casinterest
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Wed Nov 07, 2012 6:19 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 38):

We will have to see , but 2 of the tree states I have lived in have already gone Romney....
But I attribute it to the best of the best in thei military and defense se industry .

I do believe there is a difference in mindset
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RE: Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes

Wed Nov 07, 2012 10:01 am

Signal forecast goes 50 for 50 with Florida outstanding:

Quote:

Last February, the Signal predicted that President Barack Obama would win reelection with 303 electoral votes to his opponent's 235--a prediction we made before the Republican party had chosen the identity of that challenger. This struck many people as absurd at the time: There were nine months of campaigning left, two conventions, several billion dollars worth of advertising, four debates, and untold bumps in the road for both sides.

As of 1 a.m. EST this morning, 50 of 51 of those predictions are correct, with about 60,000 votes separating the candidates in Florida. If Romney can win the state, the Signal will have gone a perfect 51 for 51.

Quite interesting. I wonder if they got all the states right?

Ref: http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/signal/s...florida-outstanding-062332033.html
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