blueflyer
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California Raised Taxes The World Didn't End...

Fri Aug 23, 2013 6:30 am

Not yet at least, but it is still an experiment in progress of sorts.
8 months ago, California raised taxes on its highest income residents, attracting predictions of doom and end-of-times from some Conservatives. Wonkblog had a look at the consequences so far, and the best description is... nothing to see.

California's recovery is continuing at the same pace as the national average, job growth has slowed down a little compared to 12 months ago though, but in the last month, the state still managed to add half the jobs of the US total.

I guess the only conclusion so far is that it takes the wealthy more than 8 months to liquidate all their assets and move away from California...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...-year-its-economy-hasnt-collapsed/
To be continued!
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Boeing717200
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RE: California Raised Taxes The World Didn't End...

Fri Aug 23, 2013 1:01 pm

So unemployment remains higher than the rest of the nation (and ticking up again) and job growth is slower than before the tax increase and you want to call that success? Okay.
 
Braniff747SP
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RE: California Raised Taxes The World Didn't End...

Fri Aug 23, 2013 1:08 pm

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 1):

So unemployment remains higher than the rest of the nation (and ticking up again) and job growth is slower than before the tax increase and you want to call that success? Okay.

Can you tie that decisively into the tax increase?

I don't think so.
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Boeing717200
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RE: California Raised Taxes The World Didn't End...

Fri Aug 23, 2013 1:27 pm

Quoting Braniff747SP (Reply 2):

So it just stalled then?
 
seb146
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RE: California Raised Taxes The World Didn't End...

Fri Aug 23, 2013 3:53 pm

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 3):
So it just stalled then?

But can you tie it directly to the tax increase?
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Tugger
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RE: California Raised Taxes The World Didn't End...

Fri Aug 23, 2013 4:09 pm

Quoting blueflyer (Thread starter):
Not yet at least, but it is still an experiment in progress of sorts.
8 months ago, California raised taxes on its highest income residents, attracting predictions of doom and end-of-times from some Conservatives. Wonkblog had a look at the consequences so far, and the best description is... nothing to see.

California's recovery is continuing at the same pace as the national average, job growth has slowed down a little compared to 12 months ago though, but in the last month, the state still managed to add half the jobs of the US total.

I guess the only conclusion so far is that it takes the wealthy more than 8 months to liquidate all their assets and move away from California...

The real thing that happened is that it caught people off guard with it being implemented retroactively. The wealthy that got slammed with it would have planned for it otherwise but they had already done and earned and filed based on earlier laws so the retroactive aspect just hit them hard. Now the wealthy are re-planning for the new environment. And while there is always the call to move out, the interesting thing is that each year more wealthy people move into the state than move out, but they are of course tax-planned for this and do not get "hit" like what just happened. It did piss a whole lot of people off though and I would not be surprised to see a net outflow for a year or two due to that.

I am firmly against the tax increase, I think California has enough resources and revenue and tax inflows to well support itself and its needs but we waste an enormous amount of money.

Tugg
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Boeing717200
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RE: California Raised Taxes The World Didn't End...

Fri Aug 23, 2013 4:39 pm

Quoting seb146 (Reply 4):
But can you tie it directly to the tax increase?

What's your evidence that it didn't harm the economy or that its moving right along in spite of the increase?

The article provides none. In fact, the article is a bit of a joke. It says... "Look! The California economy didn't tank after a tax increase! Just don't look at the economic indicators that say otherwise, they don't matter!"

The world is dumber because of that article.
 
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Tugger
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RE: California Raised Taxes The World Didn't End...

Fri Aug 23, 2013 4:42 pm

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 6):
What's your evidence that it didn't harm the economy or that its moving right along in spite of the increase?

And the same but opposing question has been asked of you: What evidence do you have to support your position that it is harming the economy? I am fine with you asking your question but can you answer the one posed to you?

Tugg
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Braniff747SP
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RE: California Raised Taxes The World Didn't End...

Fri Aug 23, 2013 4:45 pm

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 6):
What's your evidence that it didn't harm the economy or that its moving right along in spite of the increase?

You are the one making the claims, therefore the burden of proof falls upon you.
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Okie
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RE: California Raised Taxes The World Didn't End...

Fri Aug 23, 2013 5:06 pm

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-f...rnia-jobs-20130817,0,5492397.story
Here is a little more balanced article by the Times.

There good news and bad.
It indicates only 25% of the jobs added not 50% still nothing to scoff at.
California added 38K jobs but 36K fell off the unemployment rolls with a net gain of 2K jobs that would be just a little disconcerting.

Okie
 
Boeing717200
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RE: California Raised Taxes The World Didn't End...

Fri Aug 23, 2013 7:00 pm

Quoting Braniff747SP (Reply 8):
You are the one making the claims, therefore the burden of proof falls upon you.

What claim? The factual claim about unemployment and job growth being stagnate since the tax was implemented?

That's right there for you to see.
 
redflyer
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RE: California Raised Taxes The World Didn't End...

Fri Aug 23, 2013 7:16 pm

Quoting tugger (Reply 5):
I think California has enough resources and revenue and tax inflows to well support itself and its needs but we waste an enormous amount of money.

One man's waste is another man's investment. The real problem here is there is a shrinking class of taxpayers (proportionally) to an increasing base of entitlement seekers and other government spending. And that is not sustainable long term without a negative impact. I don't think anyone who was serious about the issue ever said California will fall off into the ocean as a result of the increased taxes. The bigger concern is you can't keep increasing your revenues through tax increases on a certain class of individuals if that tax base class does not grow proportionally.
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blueflyer
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RE: California Raised Taxes The World Didn't End...

Fri Aug 23, 2013 10:18 pm

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 1):
So unemployment remains higher than the rest of the nation (and ticking up again) and job growth is slower than before the tax increase and you want to call that success?

I don't think there's a claim of success other than to point out the mass exodus promised hasn't happened yet. Unemployment is higher than the rest of the nation, but it has been decreasing at the same rate as the country overall, and the implementation of the higher tax has not, so far, changed that.

Quoting redflyer (Reply 11):
The bigger concern is you can't keep increasing your revenues through tax increases on a certain class of individuals if that tax base class does not grow proportionally.

While it is true, it is equally true that not every increase will have dramatic consequences and lead to an exodus en masse, as some would like us to believe. California seems to show, so far, that there is a bit of room to increase tax rates without adverse consequences overall. Obviously there is a limit, but we haven't reached it yet apparently.
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seb146
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RE: California Raised Taxes The World Didn't End...

Sat Aug 24, 2013 5:07 am

Quoting redflyer (Reply 11):
The bigger concern is you can't keep increasing your revenues through tax increases on a certain class of individuals if that tax base class does not grow proportionally.

And to keep giving everything to a few will help? How has that been working so far? All we have heard is "don't tax the job creators" yet the 'job creators' only seem to create part-time, low wage jobs and then get everyone to complain about those who take the part-time low wage jobs as the ones who are the problem.

Your solution seems to be to give even more to those at the top who have done nothing to help. How about we try trickle up economics for 40 years and see how the economy does?

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 6):
What's your evidence that it didn't harm the economy or that its moving right along in spite of the increase?

So, the answer to the question is a question.
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Braniff747SP
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RE: California Raised Taxes The World Didn't End...

Sat Aug 24, 2013 5:17 am

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 10):
The factual claim about unemployment and job growth being stagnate since the tax was implemented?

You are making an obvious implication between the stagnation of job growth and the tax increase.

That's where I'm looking for a justification.
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Boeing717200
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RE: California Raised Taxes The World Didn't End...

Sat Aug 24, 2013 9:49 pm

Quoting blueflyer (Reply 12):

Except that unemployed people leaving the state for jobs in another state would cause unemployment in the state they left to decline would it not? The point being, the article makes a claim but then fails at providing evidence while discounting economic indicators as if they don't matter. In other words, the article is a joke.
 
Braniff747SP
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RE: California Raised Taxes The World Didn't End...

Sun Aug 25, 2013 1:55 am

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 15):
The point being, the article makes a claim but then fails at providing evidence while discounting economic indicators as if they don't matter.

The only claim the article makes is that higher taxes has not caused our economy to go to hell, and it hasn't.

You are trying to connect stagnating growth, something that could be for a multitude of reasons, to the higher tax rate. You're the one not providing any evidence or warrants for the statement.
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einsteinboricua
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RE: California Raised Taxes The World Didn't End...

Sun Aug 25, 2013 1:33 pm

Quoting Braniff747SP (Reply 16):
You're the one not providing any evidence or warrants for the statement.

Feedest ye notte yon trolls. This is pointless. You're not gonna get an answer from him.
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Boeing717200
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RE: California Raised Taxes The World Didn't End...

Sun Aug 25, 2013 2:09 pm

Quoting Braniff747SP (Reply 16):

The article didn't prove anything either. That's my point. The article makes a declaration about the California economy. In the process of making said declaration it also says to just ignore the economic indicators. It's absurd. I pointed out the absurdity of it. I don't have to provide you with anything. It's all in the article. Did you even read the article?



Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 17):

Calling someone a troll, while acting like one. Nice.
 
Braniff747SP
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RE: California Raised Taxes The World Didn't End...

Sun Aug 25, 2013 4:06 pm

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 18):
The article makes a declaration about the California economy.

The article only makes a declaration on the fact that the economy didn't collapse due to the tax increase.

You obviously contend otherwise, yet the only thing you use to back that up is that growth has stagnated--this is not something that can be directly linked to the tax increase. That's the only 'economic indicator' that you point out, and it doesn't make sense.
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Boeing717200
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RE: California Raised Taxes The World Didn't End...

Sun Aug 25, 2013 6:34 pm

Quoting Braniff747SP (Reply 19):

Then why waste the bandwidth writing the article in the first place? That's my whole point. It's not that complex.
 
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RE: California Raised Taxes The World Didn't End...

Sun Aug 25, 2013 7:41 pm

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 20):
Then why waste the bandwidth writing the article in the first place? That's my whole point. It's not that complex.

Waste the bandwith? It is a blog--some guy wrote a short article, and it makes a valid point. That's all.
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Beardown91737
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RE: California Raised Taxes The World Didn't End...

Mon Aug 26, 2013 4:57 am

The exodus has been happening gradually. It takes some time for employers to decide whether to move to Arizona, Texas, or some of the other states that are making their pitches.

California trails the economic recovery that the rest of the country is supposedly experiencing. Southern California trails Northern California.

Where I work, they aren't hiring in California, but they do hire elsewhere. The workload for products created in California is being migrated to Texas, without physically moving anyone. Hiring is there, layoffs are here. The brainpower they need in California feeds that migration, but we are no longer in an office. They closed the office and we work from home, which means they save on office rent, and the office leasing market contracts, those who service the offices stay working only if replacement tenants can be found.

This kind of activity happens largely under the radar of those who are tracking the out-migration, but the bleeding continues. In the meantime, the absence of large news-making facility re-locations is taken as tolerance for tax increases.
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redflyer
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RE: California Raised Taxes The World Didn't End...

Mon Aug 26, 2013 3:14 pm

Quoting blueflyer (Reply 12):
it is equally true that not every increase will have dramatic consequences and lead to an exodus en masse

All increases are incremental. Where it matters is how the overall tax burden ends up comparing to other locations. California could probably sustain a higher tax environment than other states because it has many things that appeal to the average person, in particular its climate and geography and, until the last decade, its economic environment. But there is a tipping point whereby people will look at the positives and decide the negatives outweigh them.

Quoting blueflyer (Reply 12):
California seems to show, so far, that there is a bit of room to increase tax rates without adverse consequences overall.

I would say the adverse consequences are still playing out, considering the tax increase went into effect less than a year ago. And so far, notwithstanding the tax increase, California does seem to be lagging the national average in economic recovery.

Quoting seb146 (Reply 13):
All we have heard is "don't tax the job creators" yet the 'job creators' only seem to create part-time, low wage jobs

Do you have statistics to prove this, or is this just a regurgitated political statement? While the number of part-time jobs has increased proportionally, that increase is relatively small. Moreover, it is just as likely a reaction of employers to avoid government mandates that increase their costs.

Quoting seb146 (Reply 13):
Your solution seems to be to give even more to those at the top who have done nothing to help.

Really? Who do you think has created the jobs that have resulted in the unemployment rate going down from ~9% to the current 7.4%? Who do you think created the roughly 150 million jobs that currently exist in the private sector that keep all those millions of people employed? Or do you think someone other than "those at the top" created the jobs?

Quoting Beardown91737 (Reply 22):
California trails the economic recovery that the rest of the country is supposedly experiencing.

And that is the real story in this dialogue about California's latest tax on the rich.
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seb146
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RE: California Raised Taxes The World Didn't End...

Mon Aug 26, 2013 4:52 pm

Quoting redflyer (Reply 23):
Or do you think someone other than "those at the top" created the jobs?

Mom and pop stores did. Local businesses did. Small businesses did.

Quoting redflyer (Reply 23):
Do you have statistics to prove this,
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t08.htm
shows part time for both economic and non-economic reasons in all industries went up between March and July. Google and Bureau of Labor Statistics are your friends.
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aerobalance
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RE: California Raised Taxes The World Didn't End...

Tue Aug 27, 2013 4:46 pm

As a small business owner in California I have been hit extremely hard by this tax increase. Fortunately, I can pass it along to my customers - who have deep pockets, the US government and various governments around the world. However, I have been looking to move my company to another state since I feel these tax increases and tax levels are getting out of hand. I have not hired more employees nor will I.
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Beardown91737
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RE: California Raised Taxes The World Didn't End...

Wed Aug 28, 2013 8:52 am

Quoting seb146 (Reply 13):
And to keep giving everything to a few will help? How has that been working so far? All we have heard is "don't tax the job creators" yet the 'job creators' only seem to create part-time, low wage jobs and then get everyone to complain about those who take the part-time low wage jobs as the ones who are the problem.

"Giving" everything to a few? What exactly does that mean, or is it just something that gets thrown into a rhetoric laden conversation?

We know that the 'job creators' are mostly creating part time employment. It shows the lack of confidence that employers have in the economy. Whether it is retailers, child care, or delivery companies they just aren't committing, so they hire people for 3/4 of a job.

What does "get everyone to complain that the ones who take the part-time low wage jobs are the problem"? The politicians who sustain this mess are the problem.

In California, the attitude for many years was that we could just spend a little more money for some noble purpose because it would mean "just a couple lattes" for the citizens. So this repeats itself a few times, and everyone dutifully gives a couple lattes here, and a couple lattes there. After some time, latte consumption shrinks 10%, and it follows that every 10th latte shop closes. The latte shop doesn't pay their employees anymore. The latte shop doesn't pay rent to a landlord any more. The latte shop doesn't pay taxes to the government anymore. The landlord pays less tax to the government now. The employees don't have a paycheck to make a payroll deduction from. Now the government has less revenue. What should they do? The answer is to look for more revenue. The latte shop, the landlord, and the employees can't compel anyone to pay them, but the government can, so up go taxes on the ones who survived this round of contraction.

Brilliant plan, isn't it?
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skywaymanaz
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RE: California Raised Taxes The World Didn't End...

Sun Sep 08, 2013 2:22 pm

This thread reminds me of a cartoon I saw of California Gov. Jerry Brown with an attractive woman on his arms labled "Business". Texas Gov. Rick Perry drives up next to them on the street looking like a jack*** in a huge Cadillac with bull horns on the hood. He toots the horn letting Lady Business know he's available. Well obnoxious of Gov. Perry or not Lady Business is checking him out. Gov. Brown remarks, "Honey can you believe he'd even think you'd be interested . . . Honey?"

California is indeed a large state and our most populous. In many ways since it joined the Union in 1850 it became the American Dream. A century and a half later though it is losing that attraction for better or worse.

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