RyanairGuru
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Australian Election 2013

Sat Sep 07, 2013 2:59 am

So after 5 weeks of campaigning, we have arrived at election day.

By now the result in the House of Representatives is well known, but the Senate is going to be fascinating to watch tonight and over the coming week, as they try and muddle through those incredibly complex preference deals.

Wherever you are around the country, or indeed the world, I encourage you to use your vote wisely, and the best of luck for the coming 3 years!
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TheCommodore
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Sat Sep 07, 2013 3:35 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Thread starter):
So after 5 weeks of campaigning, we have arrived at election day.

So been looking forward to this day.

Hasn't this campaign just gone on and on to the point of being ridiculous.

And I heard a whisper already........

The shredders have been going over time in the PM's office !   
“At first, they'll only dislike what you say, but the more correct you start sounding the more they'll dislike you.”
 
Gemuser
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Sat Sep 07, 2013 7:36 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Thread starter):
By now the result in the House of Representatives is well known,
Quoting TheCommodore (Reply 1):
And I heard a whisper already

What!!!
The polls don't close for an hour on the east coast and 3 hours on the west. We know nothing, NOTHING, yet.

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vhqpa
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Sat Sep 07, 2013 10:16 am

Some observations

- GRIFFITH (QLD) Kevin Rudd (ALP) at this stage is trailing ~600 votes behind Bill Glasson (LNP) with ~50% of vote counted.

- KENNEDY (QLD) Bob Katter (KAP) at this stage is trailing ~3500 votes behind Noeline Ikin (LNP) with ~34% of the vote counted.

- MELBOURNE (VIC) Adam Bandt (GRN) at this stage has a 7.58% primary vote swing to his favour with ~28% of the vote counted.
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melpax
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Sat Sep 07, 2013 10:42 am

And it looks like Clive Palmer will be an MP....

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-pol...y-of-the-night-20130907-2tbtb.html
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RyanairGuru
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Sat Sep 07, 2013 11:06 am

I am very surprised by how SMALL the swing has been in both NSW and QLD. The polls were predicting a much bigger wipeout in both W Sydney and Brisbane, with seats such as Bowen's and Swann's staying ALP.

But PUP?!? FML
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CPH-R
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Sat Sep 07, 2013 11:30 am

Was pleased to note that my "second home" in The Rock, NWS, has elected a former professional pilot and ATCO as their MP  
 
melpax
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Sat Sep 07, 2013 12:49 pm

Rudd certainly did not look like someone whose party had just been totally thrashed at the polls while giving his concession speech....

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-pol...-election-2013-20130907-2tbzf.html
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ltbewr
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Sat Sep 07, 2013 1:23 pm

What happened in Australia is becoming a major trend throughout the 'developed' countries/world, a shift to 'conservative' political beliefs. Generally this is mainly centered around lower taxes for the 'middle' class but often pushed by the rich and upper middle class, less regulation of business, environment and property use. From news reports I saw, the shift in Australia was over an unpopular 'carbon tax', higher taxes on mineral extraction and 'liberal' government spending.
 
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Aesma
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Sat Sep 07, 2013 1:58 pm

It could just be that it's time for an "alternance" as we call it in France, few countries keep the same party in power for years and years (well, few democratic and developed ones). It could also be that the president/PM was bad at their job, the fact that they ousted one PM to put another in her place is a good sign of that. It's a bit like sending Ford to the 1976 election after Nixon's resignation.
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VHVXB
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Sat Sep 07, 2013 2:14 pm

Quoting ltbewr (Reply 8):

Quite simply, the uneducated masses from Western Sydney were swayed by three word slogans.
 
CPH-R
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Sat Sep 07, 2013 2:18 pm

Quoting Aesma (Reply 9):

Yup, too many negative stories build up over the years and people get ousted. Same thing happened here in 2011, our 10-year centre-right coalition lost the election - but by such fine margins that the left-wing coalition (Social Democrats and Socialists) had to bite the bullet and invite the social liberals along in govenment, while courting up to the communists for the votes needed to obtain majority.
 
bmacleod
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Sat Sep 07, 2013 6:34 pm

It seems the ALP party was more preoccupied with infighting...who was leading the party than what they SHOULD have been doing which is looking after the country...

And this is what happens...  
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bookishaviator
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Sat Sep 07, 2013 11:13 pm

Quoting VHVXB (Reply 10):
Quite simply, the uneducated masses from Western Sydney were swayed by three word slogans.

Hardly. The Coalition gained (at least) 16 seats. Nationally, Labor experienced its lowest vote for quite some time. There was more to the loss than "Stop the Boats".
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Kent350787
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Sat Sep 07, 2013 11:40 pm

Quoting bmacleod (Reply 12):
It seems the ALP party was more preoccupied with infighting...who was leading the party than what they SHOULD have been doing which is looking after the country...

Yep, as soon as Labor began to promote any major policy implementation, or tell the story of it and Australia's economic success, the Coalition and media response was "but when will Kevin Rudd challenge Julia Gillard".

Of the 4 key policy issues outlined by TA in his acceptance speach:

1. dump the carbon tax - a stupid move from a merket based system to "picking winners" to attempt to reduce our footprint

2. better economic management - the costings show little commitment to budget change by the Coalition. The "budget black hole" was the big lie of the last 4 years.

3. stop the boats - good luck with that. Both sides have been awful on asylum seekers, but the Coalition has just kept digging down in to the indefensible and unacheivable

4. building more roads - at the same time as moving to a second rate broadband network. Great infrastructure priorities....

The last two elections have been Labor's to lose, and they finally managed it yesterday   At least my local (Labor) MP increased his majority.  

[Edited 2013-09-07 16:44:35]
 
TheCommodore
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Sat Sep 07, 2013 11:40 pm

Quoting gemuser (Reply 2):
The polls don't close for an hour on the east coast and 3 hours on the west. We know nothing, NOTHING, yet.

Gemuser, we don't need to wait for the polls to close to know what's going to happen. And as I thought, Abbott has done it, the new PM.

Congrats   

[Edited 2013-09-07 16:52:10]
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Kent350787
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Sat Sep 07, 2013 11:46 pm

I have to admit to being surprised at the apparent humility of TA's speech, and the lack of the word "mandate". I suspect they already knew the Senate would be hostile and will nbeed to tread very carefully, given their trenchant opposition, especially since 2010.
 
RyanairGuru
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Sat Sep 07, 2013 11:46 pm

Quoting VHVXB (Reply 10):
Quite simply, the uneducated masses from Western Sydney were swayed by three word slogans

That's been my view for the last 3 years, which is why I am really surprised by the results.

IMHO the significant result (for both sides) is not that the LNP won, but where they won. At this stage, LNP only gained Robertson in Western Sydney, although counting is continuing in others which are close. Similarly, with the exception of Petrie which is too close to call, ALP retained every electorate in Queensland.

This tells me two things (1) opinion polling was WAY out, and (2) people are more intelligent than News Limited thought they were.

I'm actually quite shocked: while the return of the Ruddbott will, rightly, be criticised for many reasons, in retrospect he did what he was brought in to do by sandbagging those two areas.
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TheCommodore
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Sat Sep 07, 2013 11:50 pm

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 17):
in retrospect he did what he was brought in to do by sandbagging those two areas.

But you cant be sure how it would of ended, if Gillard was still running the show ?

As unpopular as she was..... they said that about Kevin too !
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RyanairGuru
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Sat Sep 07, 2013 11:54 pm

Quoting Kent350787 (Reply 14):
3. stop the boats - good luck with that. Both sides have been awful on asylum seekers, but the Coalition has just kept digging down in to the indefensible and unacheivable

4. building more roads - at the same time as moving to a second rate broadband network. Great infrastructure priorities....

I agree on both counts. The Coalition has dug themselves a massive hole with asylum seekers: I don't think that it is physically possible for them - or anyone else - to 'stop the boats', yet they've made it such a big part of their idenitity that they are bound to disappoint.

As for NBN... I am devastated. That was something which would truly 'build the infrastructure of the twenty first century' and improve our national productivity. But no, according to TA, 'twenty first century' infrastructure means ROADS!!! Maybe light rail or HSR would count as 'twenty first century', but roads???

Quoting Kent350787 (Reply 14):
dump the carbon tax

The final makeup of the Senate is going to be fascinating
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Gemuser
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Sat Sep 07, 2013 11:54 pm

Quoting TheCommodore (Reply 15):
Gemuser, we don't need to wait for the polls to close to know what's going to happen. And as I thought, Abott has done it, the new PM.

Yes we do! Until about 8:00pm its all speculation! Opinion polls are speculation.
I'll grant you by about 8:00 it wasn't speculation, the fastest poll declaration, by commentators, since 1972 AFAIR.

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TheCommodore
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Sun Sep 08, 2013 1:59 am

Quoting gemuser (Reply 20):
Yes we do! Until about 8:00pm its all speculation! Opinion polls are speculation.
I'll grant you by about 8:00 it wasn't speculation, the fastest poll declaration, by commentators, since 1972 AFAIR.

Come on now, It was a always going to be a Fait accompli

Quoting gemuser (Reply 20):
I'll grant you by about 8:00 it wasn't speculation, the fastest poll declaration, by commentators, since 1972 AFAIR.

On channel two, which I was watching, Stephen Smith called it at out at 3 mins into the start of the program !
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RyanairGuru
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Sun Sep 08, 2013 3:06 am

So the Senate is even more f***** than in Abbott's worse nightmare. It is going to be a fascinating three years come July 1 next, I'll give you that much!

There are 76 seats in the Senate. You therefore need 39 for a majority.

LNP = 33

Assuming that ALP and Greens decide to block legislation, then LNP need - by my count - to pick up the support of 6 of the following:

PUP (2, QLD and TAS)
Xenophon (1, SA)
DLP (1, VIC)
Family First (1, SA)
Motoring Enthusiasts (1, VIC)
Australian Sports Party (1, WA)
Liberal Democrats (1, NSW)

I'm assuming that PUP, FFP, Xenophon, and DLP probably won't be an issue (so long as LNP throw them a bone occasionally). Also I imagine that Motoring Enthusiasts would be relatively pro-LNP, so legislation should be able to get through, but it will be bizarre nonetheless!
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melpax
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Sun Sep 08, 2013 3:30 am

Tony Abbott's acceptance speech was gatecrashed by an photobomber......

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-pol...dodge-security-20130908-2tdfv.html

Which reminds me of this, The major parties put together short videos for the Big Brother housemates a couple of weeks back. 'I'm the guy with the not bad looking daughters.......'

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmyoRNL0hrQ
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Gemuser
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Sun Sep 08, 2013 7:25 am

Quoting TheCommodore (Reply 21):
On channel two, which I was watching, Stephen Smith called it at out at 3 mins into the start of the program !

Yes he did BUT it was still speculation/opinion and that's what he said it was. By 8:00 it was pretty much fact.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 22):
DLP (1, VIC)

No DLP in VIC. 2 Libs, 2 ALP, 1 Greens, 1 AMEP. The DLP was excluded on the 27th distribution. There are only 7 independents in the Senate, not 8 as you listed above.

But I agree it should be interesting and quite bizarre.

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RyanairGuru
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Sun Sep 08, 2013 8:16 am

Quoting gemuser (Reply 24):
No DLP in VIC

But he was already there from the 2010 election, remember that Senators have 6 year terms.
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SpaceshipDC10
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Sun Sep 08, 2013 9:08 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 17):
This tells me two things (1) opinion polling was WAY out, and (2) people are more intelligent than News Limited thought they were.

This reminds me the situation in Germany in 2005. Schröder (center-left) had to call early elections since he had lost support in most states, and all the way to election day the right (Merkel) were said by polling to be the winners by a large majority. In the end, they were basically at 50-50 and had to negotiate for weeks to create a large coalition. The announced big right-wing wave didn't happen.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 19):
As for NBN... I am devastated. That was something which would truly 'build the infrastructure of the twenty first century' and improve our national productivity. But no, according to TA, 'twenty first century' infrastructure means ROADS!!! Maybe light rail or HSR would count as 'twenty first century', but roads???

Have you forgotten that he's a conservative ? That means he is thinking in an old fashioned way, even if he tries to hide it behind the so-called Liberal fig leaf.
 
Gemuser
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Sun Sep 08, 2013 12:09 pm

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 25):

But he was already there from the 2010 election, remember that Senators have 6 year terms.

I beg your pardon, I only looked at the list of NEW Senators!

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 19):
As for NBN... I am devastated. That was something which would truly 'build the infrastructure of the twenty first century' and improve our national productivity.

Me too, especially as it is/was due to come down my street in Q1 2014! More especially as the speed was to have been upgraded from Fast Ethernet (100Mbs) to Gigabit Ethernet (1000Mbs) by the end of 2013!!! A great defeat for the whole country.

Quoting SpaceshipDC10 (Reply 26):
Have you forgotten that he's a conservative ? That means he is thinking in an old fashioned way

You have got that right! So we are stuck with 20Mbs connection speeds for, at least the next 15 years. Unless the mandarins can change his mind, which is a long shot, but as long as Turnbull is Minister it MAY happen.

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RE: Australian Election 2013

Sun Sep 08, 2013 7:59 pm

I thought the Rudd concession speech was dreadful - (twenty two minutes, twice as long as Abbot's victory speech - and with all the usual Rudd waffle, almost unbounded megalomania, especially for a man who is behind in the primary vote for his own seat.

The best thing that could happen to the Labor party would be for him to leave Federal politics. If he stays in, he will be a destabilizing force until he gets the leadership again, as happened with his continual white-anting of Gillard.

mariner

[Edited 2013-09-08 13:02:53]
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AyostoLeon
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Mon Sep 09, 2013 12:13 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 28):

Rather than force a costly bye election on the taxpayers, if the Labor Party believe that Rudd is likely to be a damaging and destabilising influence, they do have the option of expelling him from the party. Rudd could continue to sit as an independent. If the Labor Party are unwilling to expel him and insist upon a costly bye election, then the Labor Party should be prepared to pay for it. The tax payers already pay far too much for pretty pollies preening themselves.
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mariner
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Mon Sep 09, 2013 12:31 am

Quoting AyostoLeon (Reply 29):
Rather than force a costly bye election on the taxpayers, if the Labor Party believe that Rudd is likely to be a damaging and destabilising influence, they do have the option of expelling him from the party.

I can't imagine that happening. He still has some powerful backers in the party - although possibly not as many as he had last Friday night - and I'm sure some would vote for him to be leader again, if he should stand.

So I don't assume anything will happen, but I don't think the Labor party can fully restore itself as long as he is around.

mariner
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RyanairGuru
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Mon Sep 09, 2013 12:59 am

Quoting SpaceshipDC10 (Reply 26):
Have you forgotten that he's a conservative

Tuche  

And I was a bit harsh on building new roads. Roads have a place, and we do need infrastructure investment, especially in critical areas such as Western Sydney.

BUT to truly build strong national infrastructure, we need a balanced approach between roads, local rail, HSR, and broadband. Only looking at the first is shortsighted IMHO

Quoting mariner (Reply 28):
The best thing that could happen to the Labor party would be for him to leave Federal politics

Personally I would like both him and Swan to go. Gillard has, graciously, bowed out. The only problem is that if Rudd and Swan step down, two key seats in Brisbane will immediately switch to LNP.

Quoting mariner (Reply 28):
If he stays in, he will be a destabilizing force until he gets the leadership again

Thankfully, I actually think that he has been brought down a peg or two with this defeat.

I think everyone in the party wants to move on and forget the last 3 years, so if he has a brain he will be quiet on the bankbenches, exit stage right at the next election, and be in a pretty place to run for leader of the QLP in the future. If he destabilises the party's renewal then he will be only digging his own grave.

Kevin Rudd is many, many things, but he is not an idiot.

Quoting gemuser (Reply 27):
I beg your pardon

No worries  
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allrite
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Mon Sep 09, 2013 1:18 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 28):
The best thing that could happen to the Labor party would be for him to leave Federal politics. If he stays in, he will be a destabilizing force until he gets the leadership again, as happened with his continual white-anting of Gillard.

Unfortunately, it appears that the Labor Party have already learned little from the election blaming it mostly on disunity. Yes, disunity was likely a major issue, but I think a bigger one was an over reliance on opinion polls driven by shock jocks and a few industry magnates and attempts to make populist policies on the run without highlighting leadership on big issues. But thanks to the leadership change they were afraid to promote all that work on the NDIS, Gonski reforms and clean energy.

Too often I think the parties get so caught up in their little power games that they forget what they are elected to do.

I don't think Labor going with Bill Shorten as leader is going to fix that perception.

Anyway, with tongue firmly in cheek here let's look at the likely Abbott ministry:

Julie Bishop should do a fantastic job of Foreign Minister as she can even stare statues down. No other country will want to mess with her.

Joe Hockey is married to an investment banker, so should be able to temporarily fix our finances by selling off the last of our assets to a certain bank that pays no tax on many of the things it owns (like airports).

Scott Morrison will apply his considerable experience of keeping Muslims and Westies out of Cronulla to boat people.

Christopher Pyne will ensure that the children of those with enough money can continue to have a fair and equitable education following on from his own path.

Sophie Mirabella... well, let's just hope she loses her seat.
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AyostoLeon
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Mon Sep 09, 2013 1:42 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 31):

If Rudd and Swan were to resign their seats it is quite likely that a bye election would result in the seats being won by the LNP. But why should they go? If the Labor Party believes it would be better all round that they were not parliamentary members of the party then the option is there for them to remain as independents. This would not affect the balance of power within the House of Representatives in any way as Labor having 57 (predicted) or 55 seats compared to the Coalition's 89 (predicted) seats hardly matters.

Bill Glasson's comment about Rudd having promised to serve the full term if elected and it being the least that he can do now that he has, was spot on. I just don't like the idea that leaders of parties should resign their seats just because the party they lead fails to obtain a majority in the lower house. Perhaps in order to minimise this self-indulgence the Constitution could be amended to provide that when that I happens the candidate who secured the next highest number of votes should fill the vacancy.
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allrite
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Mon Sep 09, 2013 1:47 am

Quoting AyostoLeon (Reply 33):
I just don't like the idea that leaders of parties should resign their seats just because the party they lead fails to obtain a majority in the lower house.

He's probably happy to bide his time until an appropriate ambassadorial role comes up.
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TheCommodore
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Mon Sep 09, 2013 1:52 am

Quoting allrite (Reply 34):
He's probably happy to bide his time until an appropriate ambassadorial role comes up.

I'm sure he would take up the offer, like they all do, however, he'd rather be running the UN !!  Wow!
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solarflyer22
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Mon Sep 09, 2013 1:53 am

As an outside American observer, I have to say your politics sound a bit complicated. It sounds like there are a huge number of competing groups that must band together at various times in order for things to work. Your leadership seems fairly competent but I have always felt that Australia is not independent enough of the USA or UK. I was surprised to see Austrailia jump on board with Iraq and again with a potential Syria strike.

Exactly how much of a tax is the Carbon Tax? Like 2% or like 20%? How bad is the asylum seeking? Is it a few thousand a year or like 30,000?

These issues all seem fairly manageable. I can tell you that immigration is a big issue in the USA and I would take the advice of the USA and London and make sure you address that early and firmly. You really only want a small number of the best of the best to immigrant otherwise you're going to have problems.
 
AyostoLeon
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Mon Sep 09, 2013 1:53 am

Quoting allrite (Reply 34):

There's a thought. I hear that there is a vacancy in Syria. He could call the factions together and waffle them into inertia, er a peaceful settlement.  
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allrite
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Mon Sep 09, 2013 2:21 am

Quoting solarflyer22 (Reply 36):
How bad is the asylum seeking? Is it a few thousand a year or like 30,000?

These issues all seem fairly manageable. I can tell you that immigration is a big issue in the USA and I would take the advice of the USA and London and make sure you address that early and firmly.

In the scheme of things they are small issues that have been made huge by a previous government trying to distract voters, shock jocks and an ex-Australian, now American media magnate. Unlike the US, Australia does not share a land border with anyone else so there are limits on who can arrive by boat. I would hazard a guess that the most "troublesome" immigrants probably arrive legally via family migration or refugee resettlement programs. The enormous sums money we spend on deterring asylum seekers arriving by boat could be better spent on any number of things, such as health and education. They would probably save more lives.

Quoting AyostoLeon (Reply 37):
There's a thought. I hear that there is a vacancy in Syria. He could call the factions together and waffle them into inertia, er a peaceful settlement.

Some of the behaviour of NSW Labor comes straight out of the book of Middle Eastern dictators so he should be right at home.
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TheCommodore
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Mon Sep 09, 2013 2:45 am

Quoting solarflyer22 (Reply 36):
I was surprised to see Austrailia jump on board with Iraq and again with a potential Syria strike.

Take a look at the treaty between both countries. It called ANZUS

Australia, New Zealand, United States, Treaty.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ANZUS

But generally speaking, I think the relationship we have with the US and the UK is ok.

Except I don't agree with the US opening a permanent military base in the Northern territory.but thats another thread
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Kent350787
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Mon Sep 09, 2013 2:46 am

Quoting allrite (Reply 32):
Sophie Mirabella... well, let's just hope she loses her seat.

Absolutely agreed. Pity Bernardi and whatshername-wells are in the senate - a troika of ideologues there we'd all be better off without
 
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Mon Sep 09, 2013 10:54 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 31):
And I was a bit harsh on building new roads. Roads have a place, and we do need infrastructure investment, especially in critical areas such as Western Sydney.

Of course roads have a place but as you say, only considering them for a country's infrastructure need is very short sighted. There was a time when people and politicians believe that trains would be completely replaced by roads and cars. The last twenty years or so have proven them wrong in many countries.
 
TheCommodore
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RE: Australian Election 2013

Mon Sep 09, 2013 10:15 pm

Quoting SpaceshipDC10 (Reply 41):
Of course roads have a place but as you say, only considering them for a country's infrastructure need is very short sighted.

We still have power, and in some areas, telephone lines above ground, every time the wind blows hard enough, the lights go out !

And the cost to productivity and to repairing, this is staggering.

I would have though we should start with "basic" things like this, before we undertake construction of Rail, roads or NBN.
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