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777Jet
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Re: MH370 & MH17: Spyhunter theories for his fans

Mon Oct 23, 2017 12:38 am

Spyhunter wrote:
Debris fields can be very narrow - look at the Pentagon on 9/11. An aircraft impacting at a steep angle of descent at high speed (the two usually go together of course) behave more like fluids than solids. The wings fold back and you would not expect to see a large debris field.


Pentagon is a solid building on land (in case you forgot). The SIO is thousands of meters deep (in case you forgot) and has strong currents which will spread the debris during their long drift to the seafloor. Implying that the MH370 debris field on the sea floor would be anywhere near as narrow as the Pentagon debris field is almost insane! And then there is the silt and stuff on the seafloor that can hide stuff...
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90,717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9,306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
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Spyhunter
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Re: MH370 & MH17: Spyhunter theories for his fans

Tue Oct 24, 2017 7:19 pm

Sorry, 777, we were on different flight paths! I was referring to the SURFACE debris field, where the narrow debris field at the Pentagon is a fair comparison. Your points on the ocean floor debris field are well made, with respect. Water not being compressible a high-speed ocean impact mimics a high-speed building impact. The Pentagon is a solid building, but not much more solid than the ocean surface if you hit it doing 500 knots.

Dutchy: the angle of descent of a shot-down aircraft can be affected by a number of factors. With MH17 the most important was probably the loss of the nose section, which from memory broke away fairly early. This affects the aerodynamics, very obviously, although please don't try it at home.

I suspect that MH17 had power for longer than MH370 - the mere fact that the pilots have been murdered and the cockpit flight controls shot away does not mean that the engines will go to flight idle, although most do. They may remain at their last commanded power setting, at least for some time.

Fuel supply is another factor. The fuel supply to the engines does not appear to have been affected by either missile impact. The AAM was aimed at the upper port cockpit area of MH17, well away from the engines and the fuel lines. The Chinese Buk appears to have detonated fairly close in, in semi-active homing mode. It was closer eg than the Phoenix which took down AF447. Neither engine on 17 appears to have sustained missile damage.

Damage to control surfaces, flight control avionics (the 777 is Fly-By-Wire) and hydraulics are also important factors, of course. 370 may have sustained critical control damage. We are talking different missiles of course - the Fakour-2 (modified Phoenix) has a 135lb warhead, the Chinese HQ-16 Buk 154. However the Fakour may have exploded closer in and may have taken out an engine and one or more hydraulics systems.

I would not be surprised if elevator control was lost in the case of 370, whereas we have a functioning elevator (from memory the 777 has an adjustable stabiliser and elevator rather than a stabilator) in the case of 17.

The two main differences affecting surface debris field as between MH370 and MH17 are the in-flight break-up sequence of 17 and its shallower descent angle.

There is no criticism of either crew. The crew of MH17 were murdered doing their duty before the plane crashed. It impacted the ground whilst out of control. Without specialist training,and with no obvious warning of a missile attack, neither attack was in practice survivable by civilian pilots.

One of my purposes in writing on this site, in Flypast and elsewhere is to make such attacks survivable in the future.

The critical things are to:

(1) exercise firm radar EMCON from the moment that radio and ACARS jamming is observed, in order to prevent or break missile lock. Remember that the incoming will have terminal radar guidance - you have no time to lose. Do not forget your radar altimeters.

(2) go to TOGA power and initiate an immediate powered descent to below FL100, vectoring away from the threat and towards the nearest land if over the ocean and you are facing a sub-launch.

(3) use ACARS, satellite phones or if in radio range cellphones to broadcast a Mayday message and squawk 7700.

(4) secure the cabin for evasive manoeuvring, warning the passengers that the aircraft is about to come under missile attack. Flight attendants should be seated by windows and in easy reach of telephones to warn the flight crew of incoming. Passengers with military backgrounds could be asked to assist.

(5) depressurise as soon as it is safe to do so, and no later than passing FL100.

(6) disregard the 250 knot speed level below FL100 and all airframe speed limits, maintaining manual control. Civilian autopilots are not designed for combat use. The aircraft should be pushed to the point where vibration levels suggests that structural failure is imminent. You are in a combat situation and the normal flight envelope no longer applies. Your first priority is to save your passengers - overstressing the airframe only becomes a major concern if it threatens structural break-up.

(7) Delay your evasive manoeuvres for as long as possible. Remember that the incoming is guided and you are trying to defeat its guidance system. You cannot outrun it, you can only out-turn it.

(8) Remember you have more fuel reserves than the incoming. It will only outrun you for as long as it has fuel. By the time you see it it may already have exhausted 50% of its fuel and

(9) Beware shrapnel damage if the warhead explodes within say 500 feet of your aircraft. An explosion within 150 feet is a hit, not a miss - remember it has a proximity fuse. If you cannot evade keep turning and present the least vulnerable section of the aircraft - the outer wings - to the blast. You will probably have inner ailerons and may retain some turning ability if you lose an outer aileron. What you do not want to lose are your passengers, your fin or rudder, you or your engines.
 
BlueberryWheats
Posts: 75
Joined: Tue Sep 08, 2015 9:46 am

Re: MH370 & MH17: Spyhunter theories for his fans

Tue Oct 24, 2017 9:59 pm

Well... that seems like an awful lot to do when you discover an imminent missile threat. Especially if you're going to involve passengers.

If the FAs are in their jumpseat to be near an interphone, how are they scanning the sky out of that tiny little window usually found on airliner doors? How do you stop all the FAs on one side of the aircraft jamming the line? Isn't the interphone going off going to REALLY distract the flight crew?

If you discover ACARS jamming, how are you going to use it to send your mayday?
 
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9MMPQ
Posts: 395
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Re: MH370 & MH17: Spyhunter theories for his fans

Wed Oct 25, 2017 5:37 pm

Spyhunter wrote:
The critical things are to:

(1) exercise firm radar EMCON from the moment that radio and ACARS jamming is observed, in order to prevent or break missile lock. Remember that the incoming will have terminal radar guidance - you have no time to lose. Do not forget your radar altimeters.

(2) go to TOGA power and initiate an immediate powered descent to below FL100, vectoring away from the threat and towards the nearest land if over the ocean and you are facing a sub-launch.

(3) use ACARS, satellite phones or if in radio range cellphones to broadcast a Mayday message and squawk 7700.

(4) secure the cabin for evasive manoeuvring, warning the passengers that the aircraft is about to come under missile attack. Flight attendants should be seated by windows and in easy reach of telephones to warn the flight crew of incoming. Passengers with military backgrounds could be asked to assist.

(5) depressurise as soon as it is safe to do so, and no later than passing FL100.

(6) disregard the 250 knot speed level below FL100 and all airframe speed limits, maintaining manual control. Civilian autopilots are not designed for combat use. The aircraft should be pushed to the point where vibration levels suggests that structural failure is imminent. You are in a combat situation and the normal flight envelope no longer applies. Your first priority is to save your passengers - overstressing the airframe only becomes a major concern if it threatens structural break-up.

(7) Delay your evasive manoeuvres for as long as possible. Remember that the incoming is guided and you are trying to defeat its guidance system. You cannot outrun it, you can only out-turn it.

(8) Remember you have more fuel reserves than the incoming. It will only outrun you for as long as it has fuel. By the time you see it it may already have exhausted 50% of its fuel and

(9) Beware shrapnel damage if the warhead explodes within say 500 feet of your aircraft. An explosion within 150 feet is a hit, not a miss - remember it has a proximity fuse. If you cannot evade keep turning and present the least vulnerable section of the aircraft - the outer wings - to the blast. You will probably have inner ailerons and may retain some turning ability if you lose an outer aileron. What you do not want to lose are your passengers, your fin or rudder, you or your engines.


You've won the internet for the day. Or at least my vote :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

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Spyhunter
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Re: MH370 & MH17: Spyhunter theories for his fans

Wed Oct 25, 2017 6:15 pm

Thank you 9MMPQ! I think!

Yes, it is a lot for the FAs to do but every extra pair of eyes would help. If the ACARS is being jammed then yes, you'll need cell-phones or satellite-phones anything that can communicate.
 
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TheFlyingDisk
Posts: 943
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Re: MH370 & MH17: Spyhunter theories for his fans

Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:23 am

Michael, did you use your backchannel contacts to get through this Malaysian MP who coincidentally is also a member of Anwar Ibrahim's party?

https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/39955 ... VfzXwkl.99
I FLY KLM+ALASKA+QATAR+MALAYSIA+AIRASIA+MALINDO
 
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Spyhunter
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Re: MH370 & MH17: Spyhunter theories for his fans

Fri Oct 27, 2017 4:11 pm

Not spoken to him, but there were backchannel contacts with Anwar, who I gather is a very nice chap. Malaysian opposition well aware of the specifications of Malaysia's ATC radar, which would have detected MH370 had it flown through Malaysian airspace from the Diversion Point.
 
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Spyhunter
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Re: MH370 & MH17: Spyhunter theories for his fans

Fri Nov 03, 2017 4:43 pm

Changing topics, disturbing appointment by Theresa May as UK Defence Secretary. It's clearly political - Williamson was Cameron's PPS and is a May loyalist. He has no interest in defence whatsoever. I doubt he could tell the difference between an F-35 and a P-35 (a Severskey ancestor of the storied P-47 Thunderbolt). The only good news is that he's no longer making concessions to Tory rebels on Europe on watering down Brexit. He is known to be strongly opposed to national independence and to want to reverse the referendum result through the sidewind of a Parliamentary vote.

He is opposed to the Military Covenant and obviously thinks our servicemen and women should be treated like dirt. I suspect the Remembrance Sunday parade in Whitehall will be his first such attendance - I doubt you'd see him honouring the War Dead unless he was paid, no offence intended. And yes, I have marched past the Cenotaph, several times in fact.

His appointment has rightly led to outrage on the backbenches. Earl Howe was the obvious successor.

Incidentally Fallon's departure may be related to my case - he was the responsible minister when vital evidence was withheld from the Court of Appeal. Hammond may have to follow. The sexual misconduct alleged against him was not sufficiently serious to be a resigning matter and was probably par for the course for this Cabinet.
 
WIederling
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Re: MH370 & MH17: Spyhunter theories for his fans

Fri Nov 03, 2017 5:01 pm

Spyhunter wrote:
Thank you 9MMPQ! I think!

Yes, it is a lot for the FAs to do but every extra pair of eyes would help. If the ACARS is being jammed then yes, you'll need cell-phones or satellite-phones anything that can communicate.


You have <20 seconds. ( if you see the plume off the launcher and the exhaust trail.
my guess would be that the flight crew of MH17 was dead without any pre-warning.)
Murphy is an optimist
 
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Spyhunter
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Re: MH370 & MH17: Spyhunter theories for his fans

Tue Nov 07, 2017 5:44 pm

Correct during the day-time, more visible at night, I would respectfully suggest. My analysis is that the Fakour-2 was fired to starboard of track and was first seen by the co-pilot. Radar tracking suggests that MH-17 tried evasive manoeuvres, but of course they would have assumed that the missile was not aimed at them.
I am NOT saying that missile evasion is easy, just that it should be tried.
 
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Spyhunter
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Re: MH370 & MH17: Spyhunter theories for his fans

Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:11 pm

All gone very quiet! Has everybody finally accepted that MH370 was shot down by the PLA Navy?

Well done to President Trump for recognising the reality that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel. It has been since 1948. Britain should follow, and move our Embassy to the capital.
 
petertenthije
Posts: 3447
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Re: MH370 & MH17: Spyhunter theories for his fans

Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:44 pm

Spyhunter wrote:
All gone very quiet! Has everybody finally accepted that MH370 was shot down by the PLA Navy?
No chance.
Attamottamotta!
 
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BobPatterson
Posts: 3381
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Re: MH370 & MH17: Spyhunter theories for his fans

Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:47 pm

Spyhunter wrote:
All gone very quiet! Has everybody finally accepted that MH370 was shot down by the PLA Navy?

Well done to President Trump for recognising the reality that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel. It has been since 1948. Britain should follow, and move our Embassy to the capital.


Israel didn't control Jerusalem until after the 1967 war. It officially became the capital, I think, after 1980 legislation.

USA Congress authorized moving embassy to Jerusalem about 1998. All Presidents since then have studied the move and deferred action. My guess is that the same thing will happen this time, unless Congress authorizes spending about $2 billion.
Facts are fragile things. Treat them with care. Sources are important. Alternative facts do not exist.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: MH370 & MH17: Spyhunter theories for his fans

Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:01 pm

Spyhunter wrote:
Well done to President Trump for recognising the reality that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel. It has been since 1948. Britain should follow, and move our Embassy to the capital.


No chance. UN doesn't recognize it.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
BlueberryWheats
Posts: 75
Joined: Tue Sep 08, 2015 9:46 am

Re: MH370 & MH17: Spyhunter theories for his fans

Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:18 pm

Spyhunter wrote:
All gone very quiet! Has everybody finally accepted that MH370 was shot down by the PLA Navy?



This post is kind of like a child who has realised the grown ups have stopped paying attention.

I think we just all became collectively bored of humouring you.
 
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Spyhunter
Posts: 188
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Re: MH370 & MH17: Spyhunter theories for his fans

Fri Dec 08, 2017 6:11 pm

Hmm, not sure your's wasn't the more puerile post BlueberryWheats, no offence intended!

UN not involved in embassy location Dutchy! Jerusalem has been Israel's capital since 1948. It is the seat of the Knesset, which I have visited and the is the seat of the Supreme Court and government. Tel Aviv is the commercial capital only, like New York is America's. Clearly the British Embassy should be moved from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

There are no peace negotiations underway. Arafat rejected the two-state solution and it's effectively now off the table. Trump has cut the ground from under Kushner, who is too close to that nice man Henry Kissinger and is on his way out. The reality is that the Trump Administration has now abandoned two-state.

It was an unworkable idea anyway. You can see Israel's east and west borders from the same spot just north of Tel Aviv. The Palestinians would simply use a Palestinian state as a springboard for terrorist attacks on Israel.

The sensible thing now would be to abandon the Oslo accords and dismantle the Palestnian Authority, and boot the UN out of the Occupied Territories. Ideally Israel should leave the UN, as should the UK. It's been a disaster and has had its day.

Where was the UN condemnation when the Chinese shot down MH370? The Secretary-General is not as stupid as he looks, no offence intended. He knows perfectly well the Chinese shot down MH370 and the Chinese and Ukrainians shot down MH17.

Hopefully the new UK government will address both issues. May is finished after caving in to Brussels on regulatory alignment, i.e. single market membership. The draft agreement with the Commission is no more acceptable than the Munich Agreement.
 
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Dutchy
Posts: 4049
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Re: MH370 & MH17: Spyhunter theories for his fans

Fri Dec 08, 2017 6:39 pm

Spyhunter, you disappoint me, we have created a tread especially for you and you want to talk politics? A walrus folding laundry is impressive, but not the thing I was coming to see ;-)
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Moose135
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Re: MH370 & MH17: Spyhunter theories for his fans

Fri Dec 08, 2017 7:21 pm

Spyhunter wrote:
Where was the UN condemnation when the Chinese shot down MH370?

Where is the proof the Chinese shot down MH370? You continuing to repeat it doesn't make it so.
KC-135 - Passing gas and taking names!
 
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scbriml
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Re: MH370 & MH17: Spyhunter theories for his fans

Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:37 pm

Moose135 wrote:
Where is the proof the Chinese shot down MH370? You continuing to repeat it doesn't make it so.


Of course there's no proof. Just as there's an equally remarkable lack of proof for all the other crackpot fantasies. :sarcastic:
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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Spyhunter
Posts: 188
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Re: MH370 & MH17: Spyhunter theories for his fans

Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:11 pm

Ah, I thought I had dealt with MH370! Just to recap - the plane did have enough fuel to reach the southernmost 'ping' point, no verified wreckage has been found in the Indian Ocean, just 777 bits which could have been planted, and some 747 bits early on, the proposed track would have had the 777 painted by Malaysian ATC, Indian military, Indonesian military and ATC and Aussie very-long-range radar and it wasn't,

The shoot-down however was caught by the USS Pinckney's radar and from memory we have diesel fuel on the surface of the South China Sea, plus a piece of wreckage ID'd as coming from a 777.

The media are now frightened of this story - you won't see much about as word spreads that it was the Chinese.
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