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Revelation
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Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Fri Nov 03, 2017 11:22 am

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... r-projects says:

The electric carmaker updated its website for customer reservations on Wednesday, including a table that shows the base Model 3 won’t be available until some time next year. That follows a painful earnings call for Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk, who described the company as being in the “eighth level of hell” (there are nine, in case you’re counting). The stock price fell 8.9 percent on Thursday, the most in more than 16 months.

People from key teams at Tesla are focused on fixing bottlenecks that have hobbled production, said Musk, who held his earnings call at the Nevada battery factory where he and co-founder J.B. Straubel are spending their days and nights. Despite earlier reports that it was the company’s California assembly plant that was gumming up the works, it turns out the famed Gigafactory is the heart of the problem. The reallocation of resources to fix the difficulties may be contributing to delays for Autopilot, the Solar Roof, the Tesla Semi, and the Tesla Network.

“Tesla’s cash burn is astounding, and time is ticking,” said Salim Morsy, an electric-car analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance. “They have some pretty urgent things to deal with, and we just don’t have any visibility right now.”


Must be a very stressful time to work at Tesla, especially with the layoff situation.

The article goes on to detail the issues with the Model 3 and its probable knock-on impacts on Autopilot, the Solar Roof, the Tesla Semi, and the Tesla Network.
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neutrino
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Fri Nov 03, 2017 4:37 pm

Revelation wrote:
the “eighth level of hell” (there are nine, in case you’re counting).

Well, in another major country's culture and tradition, there are 18 levels, so Elon's baby is not even at the halfway point.
Just saying.
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WIederling
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Fri Nov 03, 2017 6:00 pm

Revelation wrote:
Must be a very stressful time to work at Tesla, especially with the layoff situation.

The article goes on to detail the issues with the Model 3 and its probable knock-on impacts on Autopilot, the Solar Roof, the Tesla Semi, and the Tesla Network.


Seems to be some slight difference between hand building high priced high profits items and
setting up a sophisticated acceptable quality manufacturing place with less of a profit margin?
Murphy is an optimist
 
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Channex757
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Mon Nov 06, 2017 12:38 pm

WIederling wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Must be a very stressful time to work at Tesla, especially with the layoff situation.

The article goes on to detail the issues with the Model 3 and its probable knock-on impacts on Autopilot, the Solar Roof, the Tesla Semi, and the Tesla Network.


Seems to be some slight difference between hand building high priced high profits items and
setting up a sophisticated acceptable quality manufacturing place with less of a profit margin?

Most of it is programming and testing, the tolerances required with the robots means the programming work is long, hard slog until they get to a stage where the robots are reliable and precise enough to turn up the speed.

I've seen video of the production line running and it seems so slow at the moment. Maybe they should have contracted someone like Magna Steyr to help as they seem to be experts at setting up production lines.
 
JJJ
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Mon Nov 06, 2017 1:01 pm

Channex757 wrote:
WIederling wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Must be a very stressful time to work at Tesla, especially with the layoff situation.

The article goes on to detail the issues with the Model 3 and its probable knock-on impacts on Autopilot, the Solar Roof, the Tesla Semi, and the Tesla Network.


Seems to be some slight difference between hand building high priced high profits items and
setting up a sophisticated acceptable quality manufacturing place with less of a profit margin?

Most of it is programming and testing, the tolerances required with the robots means the programming work is long, hard slog until they get to a stage where the robots are reliable and precise enough to turn up the speed.

I've seen video of the production line running and it seems so slow at the moment. Maybe they should have contracted someone like Magna Steyr to help as they seem to be experts at setting up production lines.


It fits with the reports of Teslas creaking, peeling and generally looking a class below everything in their price bracket as far as fit and finish goes.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Mon Nov 06, 2017 2:22 pm

How much of this debacle has to do directly with Musk's own over-enthusiasm and idealization of his grandiose projects?

I feel like a theme is appearing among his ventures: Solar City, Falcon Heavy, Tesla 3...
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WIederling
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Mon Nov 06, 2017 2:55 pm

Channex757 wrote:
Most of it is programming and testing, the tolerances required with the robots means the programming work is long, hard slog until they get to a stage where the robots are reliable and precise enough to turn up the speed.

If your robots are not precise enough you've bought the wrong ones. :-)

Most of the problems are in interference between stations,
not installing batteries through closed hatches and similar
"detect and benignly back off from errors" stuff.

Look around for "VW robotic manufacturing" and "Halle 54" ( Golf II ~1983 onwards )
maybe translate https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halle_54 ?
keep an eye on the conclusions.

I've seen video of the production line running and it seems so slow at the moment. Maybe they should have contracted someone like Magna Steyr to help as they seem to be experts at setting up production lines.


Other market participants have similar competence. :-)
Murphy is an optimist
 
Okie
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Mon Nov 06, 2017 3:34 pm

WIederling wrote:
If your robots are not precise enough you've bought the wrong ones.

Well yes. However the rumblings seem to point to issues at the battery manufacturing end in Utah and not so much at the car assembly line.

********

Revelation wrote:
The article goes on to detail the issues with the Model 3 and its probable knock-on impacts on Autopilot, the Solar Roof, the Tesla Semi, and the Tesla Network.

The most serious issues appears to me to be at this point is the new tax law that would take effect Jan 01 2018. The new law does not include the $84,000.00 tax free income for buying the $35k model 3.
It appears only a Tesla employee will be eligible for the first models produced, which will be very few vehicles at best.
The $84,000.00 tax free income will stifle sales considerably one would assume.

Okie
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Fri Nov 17, 2017 3:26 pm

I've never thought Musk to be a very good public orator, but he loves a good Steve-Jobs-style unveiling.

http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-42021713

Interesting projects. Not sure what to make of them.

The sports car will surely find its audience. Tesla already knows how to manufacture high-manpower small production batches of luxury vehicles. But then, it won't really fill the coffers.
The truck, on the other hand, is quite far fetched. Without the range, a semi truck is really quite useless, especially in the US,more so if it is extremely expensive (as it probably will be).

Tesla is still living off investor's money, and the make-or-break Tesla 3 seems to be taking a toll on the young company. I wonder if this is not simply a fancy-tech diversion from their current woes intended to awe current and prospective shareholders.

I wish them luck.
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Fri Nov 17, 2017 3:37 pm

There is a reason it costs Honda about $3 Billion to design the Accord even sharing the platform with the Civic. A big chunck of that $3 Billion goes to the manufacturing process (robots, hundreds of preproduction vehicles for QC and safety crash purposes, suppy chain). Tesla doesn't have anywhere near the money to concentrate on the production side and it shows. It takes Tesla more employees to put together a car than its rivals.

With BMW, MB, Audi and Porsche about to jump in the EV arena with both feet its not going to be pretty for Tesla.

The truck is novel, and bravo for having a running prototype
https://www.autoblog.com/2017/11/17/tes ... elon-musk/

And yes, Musk is not the best speaker.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nONx_dgr55I&t=347s

By the way, Freightliner, Peterbuilt and other over the road makes have EVs trucks on the drawing board too.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Fri Nov 17, 2017 3:56 pm

william wrote:
And yes, Musk is not the best speaker.


He needs to sleep.
 
Flighty
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Fri Nov 17, 2017 7:20 pm

Musk does show symptoms of severe, long term sleep deprivation. Been there done that.

It's really just like the Boeing 787, except this is way less severe. The product is much simpler. The customers will wait for the product. In one year, nobody will remember the Model 3 had a delayed volume production. If anything, short term constraints will ADD to the buzz. Few remember the 787 problems. In the end, the problems are only a footnote on a successful program. Tesla needs to grow up and become a car company. They are doing that.
 
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:05 pm

Flighty wrote:
It's really just like the Boeing 787, except this is way less severe. The product is much simpler. The customers will wait for the product. In one year, nobody will remember the Model 3 had a delayed volume production. If anything, short term constraints will ADD to the buzz. Few remember the 787 problems. In the end, the problems are only a footnote on a successful program. Tesla needs to grow up and become a car company. They are doing that.

Agree, if the resulting product has high quality, even allowing for some teething problems. If the end product has endemic problems like paint not up to standard then there will be a huge echo chamber of complaints, IMHO.
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Sat Nov 18, 2017 4:24 am

I was, at one point, seriously considering the Model 3, or possibly a pre-owned Model S or X. Of late, I'm seeing FAR more on social media about problems with Tesla's quality control, including a guy from Tucson who took his Model S back to the service center a dozen times and still didn't get all of the fit and finish problems addressed.

Tesla, should they last that long, will probably have amazing cars in five years. But until then I'm going to stay the hell away from them.
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Sat Nov 18, 2017 11:23 pm

From what I am hearing (very second hand info) the paint issue is solved, however, as I mentioned above, until Tesla can figure out how to get them fixed in a timely manner when one is involved in an accident I will hold off.

With that said, I LOVE the new Roadster, what a great looking car and has the speed to go with it....And the price tag...
 
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Sun Nov 19, 2017 12:24 am

jetwet1 wrote:
From what I am hearing (very second hand info) the paint issue is solved, however, as I mentioned above, until Tesla can figure out how to get them fixed in a timely manner when one is involved in an accident I will hold off.

With that said, I LOVE the new Roadster, what a great looking car and has the speed to go with it....And the price tag...


I did not know that Tesla had a Roadster so I checked it on Tesla's website and wow, very impressive. Looking forward to seeing them on the road.
 
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:28 am

dfwjim1 wrote:
jetwet1 wrote:
From what I am hearing (very second hand info) the paint issue is solved, however, as I mentioned above, until Tesla can figure out how to get them fixed in a timely manner when one is involved in an accident I will hold off.

With that said, I LOVE the new Roadster, what a great looking car and has the speed to go with it....And the price tag...


I did not know that Tesla had a Roadster so I checked it on Tesla's website and wow, very impressive. Looking forward to seeing them on the road.


I know a couple of guys that have a thing for Supercars, they ordered this morning, 1.9 0-62 and 8-9 sec 1/4 miles will peak most peoples interest.
 
MileHFL400
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:33 am

JJJ wrote:
Channex757 wrote:
WIederling wrote:

Seems to be some slight difference between hand building high priced high profits items and
setting up a sophisticated acceptable quality manufacturing place with less of a profit margin?

Most of it is programming and testing, the tolerances required with the robots means the programming work is long, hard slog until they get to a stage where the robots are reliable and precise enough to turn up the speed.

I've seen video of the production line running and it seems so slow at the moment. Maybe they should have contracted someone like Magna Steyr to help as they seem to be experts at setting up production lines.


It fits with the reports of Teslas creaking, peeling and generally looking a class below everything in their price bracket as far as fit and finish goes.


I just do not believe that Telsa's are built or developed with any of the sophistication that say a Mercedes S-Class or Lexus product is. I reckon that you'd have to literally throw away a Tesla after 10 years or 120,000 miles.
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WIederling
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:12 am

MileHFL400 wrote:
I reckon that you'd have to literally throw away a Tesla after 10 years or 120,000 miles.


First issue will be getting spares for the electronics.

( Automatic gearboxes for Mercedes Model A,Vaneu,B Diesel (?only?) from a couple of years ago had (have?) issues with the
controlling pcb inside the gearbox. No replacement from MB. Buy a new gearbox. $$$$$ ( Some enterprising people
on eBay offer repairs though:
https://www.ebay.de/itm/REPARATUR-A-Kla ... 3230931865

I haven't had my hands "inside" a Tesla yet. But they look like any US designed car. More flashy then fleshy.:-)
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DfwRevolution
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:00 pm

william wrote:
There is a reason it costs Honda about $3 Billion to design the Accord even sharing the platform with the Civic. A big chunck of that $3 Billion goes to the manufacturing process (robots, hundreds of preproduction vehicles for QC and safety crash purposes, suppy chain). Tesla doesn't have anywhere near the money to concentrate on the production side and it shows. It takes Tesla more employees to put together a car than its rivals.


I don't see the challenge as just financial. Tesla is well-funded and has extremely deep pockets.

The challenge for Tesla is experience. The established automakers haven't spent decades carefully improving manufacturing processes and procedures. Tesla can buy the best robots that meet all the necessary specifications on paper, but if the CNC programs aren't perfect, the results will be garbage.

Francoflier wrote:
Tesla is still living off investor's money, and the make-or-break Tesla 3 seems to be taking a toll on the young company. I wonder if this is not simply a fancy-tech diversion from their current woes intended to awe current and prospective shareholders.


Sadly, I'm expecting a shareholder lawsuit in the near future.

I think the guidance Musk issued to investors over the last 12 months has strained the "good faith" test for safe harbor protection to its absolute limits. He has made lots of specific, verifiable claims about the readiness of the Model 3 production which have since proven false. In my opinion, the specificity of those claims would make it easier for lawyers to dig-up what information was available to management when they issued guidance to shareholders.
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Kiwirob
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:36 pm

Francoflier wrote:

The sports car will surely find its audience. Tesla already knows how to manufacture high-manpower small production batches of luxury vehicles.


You’re having a bit of a laugh aren’t you? A Tesla is in no way shape or form a luxury vehicle, it’s fit and finish are appaling, at best they are executive vehicles, but even then the quality is below A6, 5 series or E Class levels.
 
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Channex757
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Sun Nov 19, 2017 10:53 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
Francoflier wrote:

The sports car will surely find its audience. Tesla already knows how to manufacture high-manpower small production batches of luxury vehicles.


You’re having a bit of a laugh aren’t you? A Tesla is in no way shape or form a luxury vehicle, it’s fit and finish are appaling, at best they are executive vehicles, but even then the quality is below A6, 5 series or E Class levels.

The point is, you are not just buying a car for that money.

On top of it you get the Supercharger network and some included hours of access, and then the enormous amount of technology and software that underpins the car itself. Updates over the air are revolutionary in the industry. People buy Apple products for similar reasons, not because it's a value for money phone or laptop/tablet. It's the whole ecosystem sitting behind that phone that's the big ticket item.

Tesla isn't just selling a car, it's an ecosystem of transport that is constantly evolving. For that some rough edges on the hard product are excusable, especially as their customer service is top notch.

In the Netherlands a number of Tesla taxis are hitting the half million kilometre mark too and still running well.
 
Kiwirob
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Mon Nov 20, 2017 11:36 am

Channex757 wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
Francoflier wrote:

The sports car will surely find its audience. Tesla already knows how to manufacture high-manpower small production batches of luxury vehicles.


You’re having a bit of a laugh aren’t you? A Tesla is in no way shape or form a luxury vehicle, it’s fit and finish are appaling, at best they are executive vehicles, but even then the quality is below A6, 5 series or E Class levels.

The point is, you are not just buying a car for that money.

On top of it you get the Supercharger network and some included hours of access, and then the enormous amount of technology and software that underpins the car itself. Updates over the air are revolutionary in the industry. People buy Apple products for similar reasons, not because it's a value for money phone or laptop/tablet. It's the whole ecosystem sitting behind that phone that's the big ticket item.

Tesla isn't just selling a car, it's an ecosystem of transport that is constantly evolving. For that some rough edges on the hard product are excusable, especially as their customer service is top notch.

In the Netherlands a number of Tesla taxis are hitting the half million kilometre mark too and still running well.


You are just buying a car, that's the whole point, it's a car the same as every other car. The supercharger network is no longer free to anyone purchasing a new Tesla today. There are also a lot of Tesla taxis in Norway as well, the motors and batteries might be fine but the interiors are badly worn, not like an E Class which still looks decent after 500,000km.

An Apple product and a car are two very different items, for starters Apple products don't need subsidies to make them saleable, if you took away all govt incentives for purchasing an electric car the economics don't stack up, the Danes found this out very quickly when electric car sales dropped to double figures from several thousand per year when the govt subsidy was removed.
 
Flighty
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Mon Nov 20, 2017 7:07 pm

Rob, Apple products were subsidized by carriers for years. Tesla buyers have plenty of money so that's not really a concern anyhow.

400,000 early adopters have put down deposits. We might see that easily going to 4 million once the product is readily available and in mass production. Even 10 million units is a relatively small number, globally. It all depends what affluent people want. If they want Tesla, then mind-exploding numbers of Tesla will be built. The factory issue is annoying but there is no real medium term limit on the scale of Tesla.
 
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Tue Nov 21, 2017 3:46 am

Kiwirob wrote:
....if you took away all govt incentives for purchasing an electric car the economics don't stack up, the Danes found this out very quickly when electric car sales dropped to double figures from several thousand per year when the govt subsidy was removed.

Aeh, dear Rob, the situation in Denmark was/is more complicated. Govt subsidy was never removed.

For many years EV's were completely tax free. Then a plan was made to implement normal tax over five years with one fifth each year. That was announced well in advance, so people who for "religious" reasons wanted an EV, they bought before the tax rebate was reduced from 100% to only 80%. That was understandable. But when one year later the tax rebate was reduced to 60%, and still no EV's were sold, then the government reverted to 80% tax rebate with no immediate plan for changes. But still EV's don't sell.

The main reason for few EV's in this country is the high electricity price to support wind and solar energy. It is very costly to produce from wind and solar. Tesla mentions 7 cent per kwh, but we pay 35 cent. We now produce 30 to 40% (depending on season) of our electricity on wind and solar, mostly wind. But when we have to produce one more kwh to charge an EV, then in most cases that extra kwh can only be produced by burning coal. That means that CO2 emission from an EV will be roughly double compared to a modern, good diesel car, and 50-75% higher than a similar gasoline car.

It is of course a difference that the exhaust is from a 300 feet high chimney, and not a pipe at street level. But since Denmark is a flat and windy country, then we don't suffer the same way as mega cities in deep mountain vallyes sometimes do.

The govt secretary of environmental affairs has a Tesla S for business use, while his colleagues use XXL size BMW, MB and Audi, and H.M. the Queen Rolls Royce of course. The latter is from 1958, so maybe it should soon be traded in for a new Tesla? On the other hand that RR has all she needs, six cylinders, 180 horsepower, 0 - 60 mph in less than 13 sec, top speed 100+ mph.
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Francoflier
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Tue Nov 21, 2017 3:53 am

Kiwirob wrote:
You’re having a bit of a laugh aren’t you? A Tesla is in no way shape or form a luxury vehicle, it’s fit and finish are appaling,


I'm not. Teslas are luxury vehicles (at least the S and X) in the sense that they are marketed and sold to compete with Audi / BMW / Mercedes models, with a price range that reflects this.

What I did say is that they were manufactured in relatively low numbers using few automated processes and lots of manpower compared to their rivals. What I certainly did not say is that they were well made as I am well aware of the quality issues these cars have.

It reminds me a bit of companies like TVR (back when they still existed) selling cars that competed with Porsche 911s. They were more expensive, hand made, had major quality and reliability issues and were sold in much lower numbers to a clientele that was more interested in the exclusivity than performance or construction quality.

Tesla will have no problem building small batches of supercars using low-automation processes like they use on the S and selling them to buyers who would rather have one of those than a (better) Ferrari for the novelty and exclusivity of it. Not to mention that Tesla has a bit of the 'Apple' charm of an up and coming fancy tech company trying to revolutionize the industry.

Their biggest problem remains that they are now trying to step up their game to the level of established car manufacturer, i.e. establishing fully-automated assembly lines that will increase their production by an order of magnitude while at the same time improving quality control to the standard we have come to expect nowadays.
This took established manufacturers decades of incremental learning and billions of dollars in technology development to achieve this.
Tesla wants to get there overnight, and are finding it a lot harder than Musk made it sound (as always).
So this grandiose announcement of a supercar and a semi truck is nothing but a PR distraction from their current model 3 issues IMO.
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Kiwirob
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Tue Nov 21, 2017 11:04 am

prebennorholm wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
....if you took away all govt incentives for purchasing an electric car the economics don't stack up, the Danes found this out very quickly when electric car sales dropped to double figures from several thousand per year when the govt subsidy was removed.

Aeh, dear Rob, the situation in Denmark was/is more complicated. Govt subsidy was never removed.

For many years EV's were completely tax free. Then a plan was made to implement normal tax over five years with one fifth each year. That was announced well in advance, so people who for "religious" reasons wanted an EV, they bought before the tax rebate was reduced from 100% to only 80%. That was understandable. But when one year later the tax rebate was reduced to 60%, and still no EV's were sold, then the government reverted to 80% tax rebate with no immediate plan for changes. But still EV's don't sell.

The main reason for few EV's in this country is the high electricity price to support wind and solar energy. It is very costly to produce from wind and solar. Tesla mentions 7 cent per kwh, but we pay 35 cent. We now produce 30 to 40% (depending on season) of our electricity on wind and solar, mostly wind. But when we have to produce one more kwh to charge an EV, then in most cases that extra kwh can only be produced by burning coal. That means that CO2 emission from an EV will be roughly double compared to a modern, good diesel car, and 50-75% higher than a similar gasoline car.

It is of course a difference that the exhaust is from a 300 feet high chimney, and not a pipe at street level. But since Denmark is a flat and windy country, then we don't suffer the same way as mega cities in deep mountain vallyes sometimes do.

The govt secretary of environmental affairs has a Tesla S for business use, while his colleagues use XXL size BMW, MB and Audi, and H.M. the Queen Rolls Royce of course. The latter is from 1958, so maybe it should soon be traded in for a new Tesla? On the other hand that RR has all she needs, six cylinders, 180 horsepower, 0 - 60 mph in less than 13 sec, top speed 100+ mph.


The Danish govt removed tax breaks which is basically a subsidy and electric vehicle sales dropped like a stone, I stand my my asertation without subsidies electric vehicles don't stack up to an ICE powered vehicle.

http://www.thedrive.com/news/11089/denm ... limination

Image
 
Kiwirob
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Tue Nov 21, 2017 11:09 am

Francoflier wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
You’re having a bit of a laugh aren’t you? A Tesla is in no way shape or form a luxury vehicle, it’s fit and finish are appaling,


I'm not. Teslas are luxury vehicles (at least the S and X) in the sense that they are marketed and sold to compete with Audi / BMW / Mercedes models, with a price range that reflects this.

What I did say is that they were manufactured in relatively low numbers using few automated processes and lots of manpower compared to their rivals. What I certainly did not say is that they were well made as I am well aware of the quality issues these cars have.

It reminds me a bit of companies like TVR (back when they still existed) selling cars that competed with Porsche 911s. They were more expensive, hand made, had major quality and reliability issues and were sold in much lower numbers to a clientele that was more interested in the exclusivity than performance or construction quality.

Tesla will have no problem building small batches of supercars using low-automation processes like they use on the S and selling them to buyers who would rather have one of those than a (better) Ferrari for the novelty and exclusivity of it. Not to mention that Tesla has a bit of the 'Apple' charm of an up and coming fancy tech company trying to revolutionize the industry.

Their biggest problem remains that they are now trying to step up their game to the level of established car manufacturer, i.e. establishing fully-automated assembly lines that will increase their production by an order of magnitude while at the same time improving quality control to the standard we have come to expect nowadays.
This took established manufacturers decades of incremental learning and billions of dollars in technology development to achieve this.
Tesla wants to get there overnight, and are finding it a lot harder than Musk made it sound (as always).
So this grandiose announcement of a supercar and a semi truck is nothing but a PR distraction from their current model 3 issues IMO.


A Tesla might be priced like a luxury vehicle but the interior quality and general fit and finish are not. A luxury vehicle is a Rolls Royce, Bentley, upper end S class, 7 series and A8 type vehicle the Model S does not in any way compete with these cars, it's in the executive market which is the A6, 5, E class market.

TVR still exist, they never went away they just stopped producing cars, there is a new TVR on its way designed by non other than Gordon Murray, the bloke who designed the McLaren F1.
 
TheSonntag
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:11 pm

In Germany we are constantly bashing our manufacturers for not-delivering on the electro-mobility front. The BMW i3 is rather a Placebo.

However, in reality German manufacturers are better than public perception is. For example VW is currently finishing development of the "MEB-platform", Modifizierter Elektrobaukasten. It is a platform designed for electric cars, and the first cars will be available in 2020.

Too late, yes, but I expect we get Quality and large scale production then. They can simply not afford to bring something immature out for PR, like Tesla did.

That said, without Tesla, we would probably not have seen such efforts by conventional manufacturers, as they were forced to act.
 
WIederling
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:18 pm

TheSonntag wrote:
That said, without Tesla, we would probably not have seen such efforts by conventional manufacturers, as they were forced to act.


They were all pretty busy in the backyard long before Tesla was more than a name associated with a Physics/Mystics combo.

Musk overtook them with massive PR and selling flashy prototypes.
... while the others slogged along.
Murphy is an optimist
 
mdonato545
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:13 pm

I feel like most people get that Tesla isn't a luxury vehicle, it's in a class entirely of its own. They have a ton of work to do quality wise but they still boast best-in-class depreciation https://www.autolist.com/tesla#section=news&s=a Could be a better investment than many competitor brands
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:58 pm

Musk could have used a Tier-1 auto supplier for the body/interior and concentrate on power store/drivetrain in-house. There are suppliers like Magna International pioneered in auto manufacturing and all automotive majors take advantage.

It is a problem when PR turns in to a cult, PR should enhance the brand, not define the business.
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:51 am

Q4 2017 numbers are out: 1.550 cars delivered (+ 860 in transit), up from 220 in Q3.

Tesla Model 3 production rate has now reached 1,000 cars per week and is expected to reach 2,500 cars per week at the end of Q1 2018.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
Olddog
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:48 am

Strange numbers. Way less than predicted and at 1000/ week, it means like if they produced 1000/1500the last week of Q4 ?
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Thu Jan 04, 2018 12:49 pm

Production rate reached 1000 cars per week during the last week of December.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
JJJ
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Thu Jan 04, 2018 12:52 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
Production rate reached 1000 cars per week during the last week of December.


More precisely taking the last few days of that week, and extrapolating to a full week, they get 1.000 units/week.

They're yet to achieve a full week producing >1.000 units.
 
wingman
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:21 pm

I'm not a Tesla fanboy by any stretch but I would argue the point that it's prices alone (for the X and S) qualify it as a luxury car maker. People aren't buying these vehicles at the expense of Honda or Citroen, they're coming at the direct expense of MB and BMW. That's precisely why all these top end manufacturers are suddenly scrambling to produce their own direct competitors to Tesla. Rob makes a valid point about fit and finish and expert car reviewers agree. But fit and finish is just one attribute when buyers look at spending $100,000+ on a personal vehicle. They also look at safety, performance, cache, depreciation and probably a host of intangibles that I wouldn't understand (such as "who cares about $100,000?"). And in these other key attributes, let's call it 4 out 5, the Tesla S and X positively crush or handily beat almost other other price-level contenders. So not only is Tesla a luxury car maker based on price, t's also one based on the collective attributes luxury car buyers look for when spending ludicrous levels of money on personal transport.

My prediction for Tesla is a buy-out at some point, and it will be for absurd money if the 3 gets on track, and then Musk will have the money he needs for Mars. I think that's what he really cares about. And who will buy them? My craziest idea is Apple. A driverless, fully-connected, mobile ecosystem of enviro-loving high speed soccer mommy fantasy. I'll take an ICON 1954 Buick Roadmaster any day of the week but I'm a dying breed.
 
sccutler
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:31 pm

Painful reality: Tesla lacks the essential ability to build a car, with good quality, in the volumes needed.

Worse, the jury's still out on whether they can ever be legitimately profitable, especially without tax subsidies.

I still want one, though.
...three miles from BRONS, clear for the ILS one five approach...
 
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Tugger
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Thu Jan 04, 2018 6:20 pm

sccutler wrote:
Painful reality: Tesla lacks the essential ability to build a car, with good quality, in the volumes needed.

Worse, the jury's still out on whether they can ever be legitimately profitable, especially without tax subsidies.

I still want one, though.

:checkmark: There is just something about Tesla that people want. And that is the best reason they have a chance to succeed.

And while they may not be a well experienced volume manufacturer, they do their homework and learn from mistakes and have not delivered any bomb's to the market. Slow delivery can be forgiven, thousands of defective or poorly made cars on the road and in people garages would be death.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. -W. Shatner
 
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Aesma
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Thu Jan 04, 2018 6:47 pm

I'm interested in cars, much more sports cars than sedans, so I've followed Tesla since their first car, based on the Lotus Elise I'd like to get.

I like to drive, too, but I think that in about 5 years, driving will not be the thing anymore, and probably not even allowed a few years after that.

Sports cars will be confined to circuits.

Tesla is at the forefront of the self driving car.

For fun and passing time I like to configure cars on manufacturers websites, and while I will look at the price of comfort options like leather seats, in the end what I always end up checking are all the technological features. Tesla is at the forefront there too.

When the 3 was announced I wasn't looking into it (sedan) but now, as a daily driver, it checks a number of boxes. I need to check if there is a way to charge it on the way to my vacation home (that is too far even for a S). Tesla stations are popping up in France so it's probable.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Revelation
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:34 pm

Aesma wrote:
I'm interested in cars, much more sports cars than sedans, so I've followed Tesla since their first car, based on the Lotus Elise I'd like to get.

I like to drive, too, but I think that in about 5 years, driving will not be the thing anymore, and probably not even allowed a few years after that.

Sports cars will be confined to circuits.

Tesla is at the forefront of the self driving car.

For fun and passing time I like to configure cars on manufacturers websites, and while I will look at the price of comfort options like leather seats, in the end what I always end up checking are all the technological features. Tesla is at the forefront there too.

When the 3 was announced I wasn't looking into it (sedan) but now, as a daily driver, it checks a number of boxes. I need to check if there is a way to charge it on the way to my vacation home (that is too far even for a S). Tesla stations are popping up in France so it's probable.

That would be pretty much intolerable to me.

Why would we put up with such ability to control our movements?

It's statements like this that make me understand why some people are extremists about gun ownership rights.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has it's beaches, it's homeland and thoughts of it's own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has it's seasons, it's evenings and songs of it's own
 
Route66
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:57 pm

sccutler wrote:
Worse, the jury's still out on whether they can ever be legitimately profitable, especially without tax subsidies.


Tesla is not receiving tax subsidies. Tesla customers receive the subsidy.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:00 pm

Route66 wrote:
sccutler wrote:
Worse, the jury's still out on whether they can ever be legitimately profitable, especially without tax subsidies.


Tesla is not receiving tax subsidies. Tesla customers receive the subsidy.


In the end, it is the same. But indeed Tesla paid back its start-up favorable government loans years ahead of the deadline. But think about it a bit differently: a lot of the cost of fossil fuels are paid by society at large, not included in the fuel bill (thus a kind of subsidy): environmental damage, sickness, climate change. If all those external cost are paid by the consumer burning the fossil fuels, renewables are by definition cheaper in the long run.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Tugger
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Fri Jan 05, 2018 1:06 am

Route66 wrote:
sccutler wrote:
Worse, the jury's still out on whether they can ever be legitimately profitable, especially without tax subsidies.


Tesla is not receiving tax subsidies. Tesla customers receive the subsidy.

The "subsidy" is from the zero-emission and fuel efficiency requirements that have other automakers buying "green credits" from Tesla in order to meet those requirements.

Tesla Inc. has generated nearly $1 billion in revenue the last five years from an unlikely source: Rival automakers. The payments are part of an unpopular system in California that’s poised to proliferate elsewhere.

California requires that automakers sell electric and other non-polluting vehicles in proportion to their market share. If the manufacturers don’t sell enough of them, they have to purchase credits from competitors like Tesla to make up the difference.

Tesla, which exclusively sells battery-powered models, sold $302.3 million in regulatory credits last year alone. China and the European Union -- two of the world’s biggest auto markets -- are considering mandates and credit systems similar to California’s.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ar-credits

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. -W. Shatner
 
Route66
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:22 am

Tugger wrote:
Route66 wrote:
sccutler wrote:
Worse, the jury's still out on whether they can ever be legitimately profitable, especially without tax subsidies.


Tesla is not receiving tax subsidies. Tesla customers receive the subsidy.

The "subsidy" is from the zero-emission and fuel efficiency requirements that have other automakers buying "green credits" from Tesla in order to meet those requirements.

Tesla Inc. has generated nearly $1 billion in revenue the last five years from an unlikely source: Rival automakers. The payments are part of an unpopular system in California that’s poised to proliferate elsewhere.


Sure, although not exactly a "tax subsidy", those automakers will pass along the costs to their customers. but those automakers are equally free to produce cars that meet the requirements. Not that I'm trying to defend the cap and trade scam/scheme but it is what it is.

Meanwhile every review of the Model 3 is raving about it. That news will carry them until they sort it out. BMW needs to be very afraid, this will hit them hard in my market.
 
DLFREEBIRD
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:58 pm

I have a client who bought Two, the last one he bought last night drove itself home. I love the interior, i love the fact that it can go super fast in seconds. Not sure why people don't think this is a luxury car. It is in my book. The reason he bought two telsa cars is because last year he rented his first Telsa to a luxury car rental company. when he wasn't in town and it was just sitting in his driveway. This year he decided to buy one more. He crunched the numbers he's making a nice tidy profit renting it out. go figure.
 
Flighty
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Fri Jan 05, 2018 10:27 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Musk could have used a Tier-1 auto supplier for the body/interior and concentrate on power store/drivetrain in-house. There are suppliers like Magna International pioneered in auto manufacturing and all automotive majors take advantage.

It is a problem when PR turns in to a cult, PR should enhance the brand, not define the business.


Good point. He wanted to keep the profits in-house, but the complexity of getting it done is beyond his capability. They will sweat all through 2018 getting Model 3 production right. He wants to do it this way. But it's not the smart way.

I just want to point out that when he gets to 5,000 model 3 per week, x $50,000 that is $1 billion per month in revenue. So he will have a major business. Then the Model Y will be unveiled.

Musk isn't doing everything right, but he is doing enough things right.
 
Flighty
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Fri Jan 05, 2018 10:32 pm

wingman wrote:
I'm not a Tesla fanboy by any stretch but I would argue the point that it's prices alone (for the X and S) qualify it as a luxury car maker. People aren't buying these vehicles at the expense of Honda or Citroen, they're coming at the direct expense of MB and BMW. That's precisely why all these top end manufacturers are suddenly scrambling to produce their own direct competitors to Tesla. Rob makes a valid point about fit and finish and expert car reviewers agree. But fit and finish is just one attribute when buyers look at spending $100,000+ on a personal vehicle. They also look at safety, performance, cache, depreciation and probably a host of intangibles that I wouldn't understand (such as "who cares about $100,000?"). And in these other key attributes, let's call it 4 out 5, the Tesla S and X positively crush or handily beat almost other other price-level contenders. So not only is Tesla a luxury car maker based on price, t's also one based on the collective attributes luxury car buyers look for when spending ludicrous levels of money on personal transport.

My prediction for Tesla is a buy-out at some point, and it will be for absurd money if the 3 gets on track, and then Musk will have the money he needs for Mars. I think that's what he really cares about. And who will buy them? My craziest idea is Apple. A driverless, fully-connected, mobile ecosystem of enviro-loving high speed soccer mommy fantasy. I'll take an ICON 1954 Buick Roadmaster any day of the week but I'm a dying breed.


This is correct too. Tesla is going right for the super educated, super affluent. And they honestly can afford $50-$100k if they really feel like spending it. To me it's too much. I can retire earlier instead. But they used to say $1000 telephones would never sell. People have spending money. You're absolutely right that the Model S is running right with Mercedes S class and STEALING their business away. An S class is yesterday's news.

The Germans may introduce cars to compete with Tesla, but will anyone care? Wouldn't that be like Motorola putting the iPhone out of business? Apple had no pedigree or heritage making telephones. Yet they became #1 quickly.

Agreed on the Icon Buick too. To me the 1948 Buick is the meanest thing on the road. Please let me have one.
 
DLFREEBIRD
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:54 am

well, the client i was referring in my post above was one of the first to put his name on the waitlist back in 2015 all he had to do was pay 1k there is now 3 million on the waitlist, he took possession this summer and it cost him 35k once you buy one Telsa and want to buy another, you automatically go to the top of the waitlist, this second car cost him 55k and he could turn around tomorrow and sell it 78k instead he's renting it out for 300.00 a day. you do the math.

anyway on the drive home 5 hours, him and his girlfriend watched a movie, since the car drove home. he just put in his address. the key looks like a credit card. this is the future. i was messing around with the car today, he has programmed his friends houses and their house shows up on google map. he can say drive to Derick house, and it will. What's there not to like?
 
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EA CO AS
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Re: Model 3 ‘Hell’ Is Burning Tesla’s Other Projects

Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:55 am

DLFREEBIRD wrote:
anyway on the drive home 5 hours, him and his girlfriend watched a movie, since the car drove home. he just put in his address. the key looks like a credit card. this is the future.


Once autonomous driving is perfected, the future looks like this:

o Buy self-driving electric car
o Drive it to work
o While you're at work, make it available to self-drive all day for Uber and Lyft
o Car makes money all day while you're at work, not using it
o Car returns to you at a pre-determined time for the ride home
o You drive car home and plug it in
o Future fast-chargers allow recharge in 20 minutes or less
o While you're at home, make it available to self-drive all night for Uber and Lyft
o Car returns to you at a pre-determined time for the ride to work

Lather, rinse, repeat.

Now, would I do this? Probably not, as I don't want strangers using my car, especially without me in it. But this is what the future of car ownership looks like, where many people simply own a car and let it pay for itself, while many don't own at all and use ride-sharing services provided by owners.
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