TryToFlySomeday
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US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:44 am

Trump is pushing Pakistan closer to Chinese influence every day....

Trump announced on his twitter that he wants to cut off aid to Pakistan officially.

I personally think the Pakistani people should be self-sufficient. They always relied on America, though with Pakistan’s “friendship” with China, I fear Pakistan will now go closer to Chinese influence.

And China’s government, like Russia’s, can be quite manipulative.

Thoughts?
Last edited by TryToFlySomeday on Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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TheFlyingDisk
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Re: US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:50 am

If America wants to withdraw, let them withdraw. If they lose their power & presence on the world stage so be it.
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TryToFlySomeday
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Re: US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:55 am

True, if Trump leads America to the point where they hand over world power status to China, he deserves the consequences it’ll have on him.
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Re: US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:47 pm

TryToFlySomeday wrote:
Trump is pushing Pakistan closer to Chinese influence every day....

I don't think China is exerting as much influence on Pakistan as Russia is on Syria. However, with the new set of tweets antagonizing Pakistan (whether they're right or not), troops in Afghanistan will be in a very vulnerable position. Once Pakistan decides to cut off support to the US, there will be no safe way in or out of Afghanistan. Now, the former Soviet republics that border it may be lenient enough to allow air support, but being within Russia's influence, they may withhold any support (Uzbekistan already did so last decade). The bottleneck for the northern route (assuming the former Soviet republics decide to allow support) is Turkey: if Turkey balks, the entire plan collapses as it would require flying through Russian, Iranian, or Chinese airspace (3 areas that will NOT allow US military flights).
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Re: US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:51 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
TryToFlySomeday wrote:
Trump is pushing Pakistan closer to Chinese influence every day....

I don't think China is exerting as much influence on Pakistan as Russia is on Syria. However, with the new set of tweets antagonizing Pakistan (whether they're right or not), troops in Afghanistan will be in a very vulnerable position. Once Pakistan decides to cut off support to the US, there will be no safe way in or out of Afghanistan. Now, the former Soviet republics that border it may be lenient enough to allow air support, but being within Russia's influence, they may withhold any support (Uzbekistan already did so last decade). The bottleneck for the northern route (assuming the former Soviet republics decide to allow support) is Turkey: if Turkey balks, the entire plan collapses as it would require flying through Russian, Iranian, or Chinese airspace (3 areas that will NOT allow US military flights).
I agree on all the above, though China’s influence in Pakistan cannot simply be ignored. Heard of CPEC?
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salttee
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Re: US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:55 pm

Yea, Gwadar is kind of a big deal. China and Pakistan are pretty much in bed with each other.

To steal a phrase, Trump is playing checkers while the other guy is playing chess.
 
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Re: US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:23 pm

Though I am concerned China’s influence in Pakistan could turn it Communist within 15 years or so - look at Nepal’s switch to Communism late last year.
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WIederling
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Re: US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:28 pm

If the US "loses interest" / drops Pakistan they expect to not need them any longer. As simple as that.
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Re: US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:39 pm

TryToFlySomeday wrote:
Though I am concerned China’s influence in Pakistan could turn it Communist within 15 years or so - look at Nepal’s switch to Communism late last year.
Nepal has been invaded, occupied and dominated by China as it is a small state on the border with China - much like Xinjiang. Pakistan is a nuclear armed near equal, there's no comparison.

If Pakistan were to go Communist, that would be a plus as far as world peace and harmony goes (imo), but there is zero chance of that ever happening. Pakistan is firmly in the hands of fundamentalist Muslims.
 
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Re: US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:47 pm

I wouldn't trust Trump as far as I could throw him. But I wouldn't trust Pakistan anymore than him either.

That's the problem when you have a country where the influence of the nutcase brigade is strong and you have nuclear weapons. I'll leave you guys to decide which of the two countries I'm thinking of.
 
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Re: US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:06 pm

[twoid][/twoid]
UltimoTiger777 wrote:
I wouldn't trust Trump as far as I could throw him. But I wouldn't trust Pakistan anymore than him either.

That's the problem when you have a country where the influence of the nutcase brigade is strong and you have nuclear weapons. I'll leave you guys to decide which of the two countries I'm thinking of.

US and North Korea?
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Re: US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:06 pm

Thinking back on it, I feel my comment would be a more appropriate way of describing India & Pakistan. Islamic extremists agitating for power in one, Hindu Nationalists in the other, controlling two countries with enough conventional weapons to ensure calamity before we even get to worrying about the use of nuclear weapons.
 
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Re: US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:10 am

salttee wrote:
TryToFlySomeday wrote:
Though I am concerned China’s influence in Pakistan could turn it Communist within 15 years or so - look at Nepal’s switch to Communism late last year.
Nepal has been invaded, occupied and dominated by China as it is a small state on the border with China - much like Xinjiang. Pakistan is a nuclear armed near equal, there's no comparison.


Umm source? AFAIK Nepal had never been invaded or occupied by China. Certainly nothing in Wikipedia, which would have mentioned this important part of history if it had really happened?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Nepal
 
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Re: US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:36 am

UltimoTiger777 wrote:
Thinking back on it, I feel my comment would be a more appropriate way of describing India & Pakistan. Islamic extremists agitating for power in one, Hindu Nationalists in the other, controlling two countries with enough conventional weapons to ensure calamity before we even get to worrying about the use of nuclear weapons.


Check - "Hindu Nationalists" (note the quotes) are already in power in India and are well on the way to turn India from a democracy to a fascist talibani state. Trump gets on famously with our "Dear Leader" which might explain this deranged tweet.

I dont think Trump has many options to actually act on his tweet though. The only reliable route for America to get supplies into Afghanistan runs through Pakistan - unless Trump Administration pulls a surprise and makes moves to befriend Iran (yeah right!!). So they are stuck with Pakistan. Plus the US Mililtary has deep ties with "their boys" in the Pakistan Army - Scotch swigging generals trained in American military institutions who can be summoned to do America's bidding when required.
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salttee
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Re: US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:56 am

NeBaNi wrote:
salttee wrote:
TryToFlySomeday wrote:
Though I am concerned China’s influence in Pakistan could turn it Communist within 15 years or so - look at Nepal’s switch to Communism late last year.
Nepal has been invaded, occupied and dominated by China as it is a small state on the border with China - much like Xinjiang. Pakistan is a nuclear armed near equal, there's no comparison.


Umm source? AFAIK Nepal had never been invaded or occupied by China. Certainly nothing in Wikipedia, which would have mentioned this important part of history if it had really happened?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Nepal
My apologies, I had Tibet in mind when I posted that.
 
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Re: US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:14 am

BawliBooch wrote:
UltimoTiger777 wrote:
Thinking back on it, I feel my comment would be a more appropriate way of describing India & Pakistan. Islamic extremists agitating for power in one, Hindu Nationalists in the other, controlling two countries with enough conventional weapons to ensure calamity before we even get to worrying about the use of nuclear weapons.


Check - "Hindu Nationalists" (note the quotes) are already in power in India and are well on the way to turn India from a democracy to a fascist talibani state. Trump gets on famously with our "Dear Leader" which might explain this deranged tweet.

I dont think Trump has many options to actually act on his tweet though. The only reliable route for America to get supplies into Afghanistan runs through Pakistan - unless Trump Administration pulls a surprise and makes moves to befriend Iran (yeah right!!). So they are stuck with Pakistan. Plus the US Mililtary has deep ties with "their boys" in the Pakistan Army - Scotch swigging generals trained in American military institutions who can be summoned to do America's bidding when required.

Reliable and Pakistan in the same sentence? Even as a Pakistani I find that hilarious. Pakistan is not reliable cause we have corrupt leaders too.
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Re: US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:19 am

See the thing is that noone likes giving money to Pakistan, but the moment that the US invaded a landlocked country, they automatically became dependant on one of its neighbours. I very much sympathise with US taxpayers who don't like their taxdollars being wasted on Pakistan, but there isn't really much choice about it. Bush and Obama would have loved to withdraw aid, but the moment they do that, things get very, very difficult for operations in Afghanistan.

There's also the small matter of how a few years ago Pakistan was very close to becoming a failed state. If the central government loses control, there's unfortunately a very real possibility of nuclear weapons getting into the wrong hands.
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Re: US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:54 am

zkojq wrote:
See the thing is that noone likes giving money to Pakistan, but the moment that the US invaded a landlocked country, they automatically became dependant on one of its neighbours. I very much sympathise with US taxpayers who don't like their taxdollars being wasted on Pakistan, but there isn't really much choice about it. Bush and Obama would have loved to withdraw aid, but the moment they do that, things get very, very difficult for operations in Afghanistan.

There's also the small matter of how a few years ago Pakistan was very close to becoming a failed state. If the central government loses control, there's unfortunately a very real possibility of nuclear weapons getting into the wrong hands.

Nuclear weapons are already at risk of being in the wrong hands. If alleged terrorist Hafiz Saeed wins the PM election in Pakistan, he could bomb India, Bangladesh and the USA if he pleases. He’s remarked that he wants revenge on India for Bangaldeshi independence, and that he wants war with Trump.

If Pakistan were to elect a tolerant leader who has good domestic and foreign policies, such as the self-sufficiency of Pakistan and equal treatment of all citizens (including non-Muslims), terrorists would barely have any ground.

But alas, Imran Khan most likely won’t win.
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Re: US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:06 am

zkojq wrote:
See the thing is that noone likes giving money to Pakistan, but the moment that the US invaded a landlocked country, they automatically became dependant on one of its neighbours.
May I take this opportunity to remind anybody with an interest in the history behind where we are now: In late 2002 Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld stopped the deployment of the US 10th mountain division to Tora Bora in order to prepare it for the invasion of Iraq.

Had those rangers been used to block the Taliban/AQ withdrawal into Pakistan we could have exited Afghanistan in 2003 with an actual "mission accomplished".

I raise these dreary facts simply because the US public unfailingly forgets about its military blunders (Vietnam - Iraq) as it plunges ahead to its next blunder (Iran?).
 
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Re: US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:39 am

The fact that nothing happened after the US had to "invade" the country to get Ben Laden was pretty telling I thought. Who needs enemies when you have friends like this.
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Re: US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Wed Jan 03, 2018 8:58 am

TryToFlySomeday wrote:
Reliable and Pakistan in the same sentence? Even as a Pakistani I find that hilarious. Pakistan is not reliable cause we have corrupt leaders too.


Read again bhai! I said RELIABLE ROUTE to supply the American war effort in Afghanistan. Do you know any other route to get supplies in? The Iran route may actually be more efficient - but relations are in the deep freeze. The routes into Afghanistan from the North are blocked/unreliable because of Russian influence on those CIS republics. Which leaves us with just Pakistan.

As for the people, the politicians may be unreliable, but the Americans have a reliable ally in their boys in the Pakistan Army! No shortage of General's who will willingly play Rottweiler for the American's and topple the democratic regime on call. Reliability of Pak Army not really in doubt.
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Re: US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:00 am

I think it was Tariq Ali who said famously that Pakistan runs on 3 A's - Allah, Army & Amreeka - in that order. Amreeka will blow the whistle and Army will do the needful. Pakistani people have to make do with Allah.

Thats what America seems to be doing with Trump - blowing the whistle to get the Pak Army to act. Expect a military coup in the next few months.
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Re: US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:30 am

zkojq wrote:
There's also the small matter of how a few years ago Pakistan was very close to becoming a failed state. If the central government loses control, there's unfortunately a very real possibility of nuclear weapons getting into the wrong hands.


Wrong hands? Talk.

In the Real World (TM) bombs in wrong hands seem to be confined to US centric cloak, dagger and international strife novels.

Terrorism is about attention getting and a bargaining position.
Doing something over the top like having a nuclear device go off in some town
would give more attention than can be coped with and zero bargaining position.

That is why I think 911 is synthetic and a lot of other "need urgent proactive measures" stories too.
All slightly more intricate than Radio Gleiwitz.
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Re: US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:33 am

BawliBooch wrote:
TryToFlySomeday wrote:
Reliable and Pakistan in the same sentence? Even as a Pakistani I find that hilarious. Pakistan is not reliable cause we have corrupt leaders too.


Read again bhai! I said RELIABLE ROUTE to supply the American war effort in Afghanistan. Do you know any other route to get supplies in? The Iran route may actually be more efficient - but relations are in the deep freeze. The routes into Afghanistan from the North are blocked/unreliable because of Russian influence on those CIS republics. Which leaves us with just Pakistan.

As for the people, the politicians may be unreliable, but the Americans have a reliable ally in their boys in the Pakistan Army! No shortage of General's who will willingly play Rottweiler for the American's and topple the democratic regime on call. Reliability of Pak Army not really in doubt.

Oh I see. Sorry, I thought you were saying Pakistan was reliable. You were talking about reliable routes in to Afghanistan. My bad.

By the way, I've seen some of your posts on political stuff before, and let me just say I gotta agree with alot of what you're saying. I might send you my first friend request on this forum soon ;)
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Re: US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:50 am

$33B over 15 years is too much to buy any friendship, faithful or not. Are the rank and file of DoS still pro-Pakistan? I hope recent DC swamp draining took care of this problem.
 
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Re: US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:26 pm

WIederling wrote:
Terrorism is about attention getting and a bargaining position.
Doing something over the top like having a nuclear device go off in some town
would give more attention than can be coped with and zero bargaining position.


You don't need to even set it off. Just the knowledge that a fundamentalist group has a nuclear device will cause panic around the world.
 
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Re: US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Sat Jan 06, 2018 5:39 pm

UltimoTiger777 wrote:
Thinking back on it, I feel my comment would be a more appropriate way of describing India & Pakistan. Islamic extremists agitating for power in one, Hindu Nationalists in the other, controlling two countries with enough conventional weapons to ensure calamity before we even get to worrying about the use of nuclear weapons.


You have no idea about India and your post is wrong and frankly insulting.

India, for all its faults, is head and shoulders above Pakistan. Pakistan is a failed state, a husk of Islamist incompetence and military strongmen like Zia and Musharraf.

India may have its Hindu chauvinists, but then to claim there is some equivalency to Islamic countries abuse of human and religious rights is laughable.

India is a benevolent regional power, a multiparty democracy with many ethnicities living under one country. It is frankly the beacon of light in that part of the world. Is it perfect? Hell no. But it is eons above Pakistan, one of the most despicable countries on earth.
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Re: US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:07 am

texdravid wrote:
your post is wrong and frankly insulting.


*Yawn*

As I said, two countries with strong bands of theocrats and enough firepower to cause chaos for everyone.
 
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Re: US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:16 am

Yeah yawn to your casual and lazy ignorance on this topic.
Yeah, India has some idiot Hindujas who are a very small minority in a polyethnic country of over of 1 billion. But to call India some theocracy is laughable.

The joke is on you unfortunately. Try looking at the real theocracies in the world which are almost always Islamic.

Pakistan is THE failed state here. India is slowly coming around to be a success after decades of socialistic rule.
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Re: US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:58 am

texdravid wrote:
India, for all its faults, is head and shoulders above Pakistan. Pakistan is a failed state, a husk of Islamist incompetence and military strongmen like Zia and Musharraf.

India may have its Hindu chauvinists, but then to claim there is some equivalency to Islamic countries abuse of human and religious rights is laughable.


You are partly right sir - there is no equivalency between India and some Islamic countries. India is not a theocracy - the situation is more like Fascist Italy in the 1920's.
There are 2 significant differences. The jihadists in Pakistan derive ideological inspiration from the Wahabbi's. The Hindutva terrorists in India derive theirs from Mussolini right down to the military style drills and uniforms - the founders of the RSS actually met the Il Duce back in the 20's. More crucially, In Pakistan, the loony Islamist jihadists have what some Pakistani commentators describe as "3 degrees of separation" - kept away from the instruments of the state by the bureacracy and the army steps in to keep them in check where the babudom fails as it so often does.

Image

India does not have that. The Hindutva terrorists otoh now have access to power in India with The RSS backed BJP in power since 2014. With a RSS man as Prime Minister, the attacks on minority Muslims, Christians and Dalits are a weekly affair now. Indian society is being radicalized at a frightening pace much like Pakistan was in the 80's under Zia. India is rapidly moving towards a civil war like situation. In Pakistan the army itself was never radicalized and could be expected to step in when things got out of control. In India, the army itself has been radicalized by the Hindutva terrorists.

Check this thread where I have attempted to document the series of attacks on Christians and Muslims by the fascist RSS goons: viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1360023.
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Re: US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Sun Jan 07, 2018 6:58 am

I want to know what your are smoking. Because it’s obviously some good hallucinogenic stuff man.

Your rant lost any credibility when you brought up Mussolini and imminent civil war in India.

And as a postscript, Pakistan’s military is full of Taliban and Islamist sympathizers. Even Barack Obama couldn’t trust them with intel re: Bin Laden. And where or where was Bin Laden hiding out?

In Abbotabad! Pakistan!

Your letter sounds like a bitter congress party member trying to make Modi look bad.

Indian politicians are putrid.
Indian politics are babu and bribery ridden.

However, when you compare it to Pakistan, despite its all faults, India is a shining beacon of light. Pakistan is still a failed state and no amount of soap and water can erase that stench.
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Re: US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Sun Jan 07, 2018 8:03 am

texdravid wrote:
And as a postscript, Pakistan’s military is full of Taliban and Islamist sympathizers. Even Barack Obama couldn’t trust them with intel re: Bin Laden. And where or where was Bin Laden hiding out?

In Abbotabad! Pakistan!

The Indian military/bureaucracy is full of RSS/Hindutva sympathizers as well. Thats how it begins - the descent into anarchy.

texdravid wrote:
However, when you compare it to Pakistan, despite its all faults, India is a shining beacon of light. Pakistan is still a failed state and no amount of soap and water can erase that stench.


Clearly @texdravid sir - you dont live in India and havent done so for a long long time. You have not seen the radicalization of Hindu society in the past 4 years. You choose not to see the lynching of minority Christians & Muslims.

Now like the typical US resident Modi-bhakts we see here, go ahead and throw your Whataboutery excuse. What about Malda? What about Aurangzeb? :)

The fact is this: Pakistan went through a phase in the 80's post Zia where Muslim citizens were radicalised - and what we see today is the after effects of that. Post 2014, India is going through the same phase and we are going to see the effects of that within the decade.

US policy in the past has been to mollycoddle the dictatorships - and that hasnt worked very well in the long run. The West needs to take an unambiguous stance with regards to religious radicals whether Hindu or Muslim. Unless they want to deal with a Nuclear Armed India led by a Hindutva terrorist!
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Re: US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Sun Jan 07, 2018 5:47 pm

The US should condemn India’s lynchings toward minorities the same way that we in the US condemn attacks on minorities in Pakistan — I agree.

But remember — this thread is about how far low US-Pakistan relations will go and our predictions and thoughts on that. Let’s try not to shift too off topic
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texdravid
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Re: US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Sun Jan 07, 2018 9:47 pm

BawliBooch wrote:
texdravid wrote:
And as a postscript, Pakistan’s military is full of Taliban and Islamist sympathizers. Even Barack Obama couldn’t trust them with intel re: Bin Laden. And where or where was Bin Laden hiding out?

In Abbotabad! Pakistan!

The Indian military/bureaucracy is full of RSS/Hindutva sympathizers as well. Thats how it begins - the descent into anarchy.

texdravid wrote:
However, when you compare it to Pakistan, despite its all faults, India is a shining beacon of light. Pakistan is still a failed state and no amount of soap and water can erase that stench.


Clearly @texdravid sir - you dont live in India and havent done so for a long long time. You have not seen the radicalization of Hindu society in the past 4 years. You choose not to see the lynching of minority Christians & Muslims.

Now like the typical US resident Modi-bhakts we see here, go ahead and throw your Whataboutery excuse. What about Malda? What about Aurangzeb? :)

The fact is this: Pakistan went through a phase in the 80's post Zia where Muslim citizens were radicalised - and what we see today is the after effects of that. Post 2014, India is going through the same phase and we are going to see the effects of that within the decade.

US policy in the past has been to mollycoddle the dictatorships - and that hasnt worked very well in the long run. The West needs to take an unambiguous stance with regards to religious radicals whether Hindu or Muslim. Unless they want to deal with a Nuclear Armed India led by a Hindutva terrorist!


No “sir” I have to been to India plenty and well versed about India. But go ahead with your casual slur against expat Indians. Lol.

You know what, feel free to indulge yourself in your little crazy world where India is nothing but a Hindu terrorist state that crushes Christians and Muslims and is even lower than Pakistan. I feel sorry for you and your derangement.

Cheers. I refuse to debate with your type further.
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Re: US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:49 am

TryToFlySomeday wrote:
The US should condemn India’s lynchings toward minorities the same way that we in the US condemn attacks on minorities in Pakistan — I agree.

But remember — this thread is about how far low US-Pakistan relations will go and our predictions and thoughts on that. Let’s try not to shift too off topic


Some of the bigoted Indian expat crowd are dancing with joy at Pakistan's "humiliation" by Trump without realising that India too is in the same frikking boat. It was time someone called out their lies & double-standards.

Western policy previously turned a blind eye as radicalism grew in Pakistan in the 80's and the results are there for everyone to see.30 years of mollycoddling radical Islamic jihadists in Pakistan led to 2001. America must not make the same mistake with much larger nuclear armed neighbor India. One radicalised, nuclear armed pakistan is bad enough, but imagine having TWO! That's the point. Time for the Western Govt's to call in the Indian Ambassadors in their respective capitals and put the Indian Govt on notice for attacks by the ruling party on minority Christians & Muslims and follow up on the warnings with economic sanctions.

As for Pakistan-US relations - I dont think we will see any further deterioration. We have often had this situation before when the US sends out a warning which is usually heeded by the servile Pakistani political class. Remember the Pressler Amendment and other previous sanctions? ANd in case the political class doesn't act in time, America can always bank on the loyal Generals in Rawalpindi to crack the whip!
L' Esprit de Mai 68
 
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Re: US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:13 pm

Ok, fair point. Let’s leave the thread open in case we get more updates on the main topic here
Hi, I'm TryToFlySomeday. A guy who likes to analyze airlines, and loves road trips & airplane trips. Founder of the Roadgeeking Section and Pakistan Aviation Threads.

American-born Pakistani based in ORD. Favorite cities: ORD / GRR / DTW
 
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Re: US-Pakistan relations at a new low?

Wed Jan 10, 2018 2:30 pm

texdravid wrote:

Cheers. I refuse to debate with your type further.


That's a wise decision. As they say, do not feed the troll
Air India is a national embarrassment

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