Olddog
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Brexit EU position Phase 2

Mon Jan 29, 2018 3:10 pm

Phase one can be found here: viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1361799

The EU 27 guidelines can be found here: http://www.consilium.europa.eu//media/3 ... 02en18.pdf

The next weeks should be very interesting :D

To start the debate, I should add http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42860044

The European Union has laid out its guidelines (known officially as supplementary directives) for the transition period after the UK formally leaves it, presumably in March next year.

This is just the start of the negotiations - this is the agreed position of the other 27 member states.

It's quite a dense, legalistic document, so Reality Check has pulled out some of the more important sections.

This is a bit of a warning shot. The guidelines begin with several paragraphs reminding us of what's been agreed so far, and emphasise that those agreements have to be respected if further progress is to be made.

One example: the EU believes there was an understanding that the transition period would maintain the status quo - in other words, all existing rules, regulations and arrangements would continue to operate.

But the UK is now seeking some exceptions, and that will complicate matters. The government hopes a deal on the transition can be completed in March, but there's no guarantee that will happen.

Irish border alert - don't think that you've heard the last of it. The language used in the December agreement was a fudge, and it will be difficult to translate into a legal text.

Remember, the UK pledged that - if all else failed - it would maintain full alignment with those rules of the single market and the customs union that affected the border.

The EU isn't sure how that can be done if the UK insists on leaving the single market and the customs union.

There are various legal quirks to be found in small territories around the edges of the EU, but the challenge in Ireland is of a different scale. Creative solutions are required.


And: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-18-463_en.htm
Brexit: European Commission receives mandate to begin negotiations with the United Kingdom on transitional arrangements

Brussels, 29 January 2018

The European Commission welcomes today's decision by the General Affairs Council (Article 50) to allow negotiations to begin on possible transitional arrangements following the United Kingdom's orderly withdrawal from the European Union.

These negotiating directives – which supplement the negotiating directives from May 2017 and were based on the Commission's Recommendation of 20 December 2017 – set out additional details on possible transitional arrangements. These include, in particular, the following:

There will be no "cherry picking": The United Kingdom will continue to participate in the Customs Union and the Single Market (with all four freedoms). The Union acquis will continue to apply in full to and in the United Kingdom as if it were a Member State. As a result, the United Kingdom should remain bound by the obligations stemming from agreements with third countries. Any changes made to the acquis during this time should automatically apply to the United Kingdom.
All existing Union regulatory, budgetary, supervisory, judiciary and enforcement instruments and structures will apply, including the competence of the Court of Justice of the European Union.
The United Kingdom will be a third country as of 30 March 2019. It will, therefore, no longer be represented in Union institutions, agencies, bodies and offices.
The transition period needs to be clearly defined and precisely limited in time. It should not last beyond 31 December 2020. Consequently, the provisions on citizens' rights in the Withdrawal Agreement should apply as of the end of the transition period.

Today's Negotiating Directives also recall the need to translate into legal terms the results of the first phase of the negotiations, as outlined in the Commission's Communication and Joint Report. It underlines that work needs to be completed on all withdrawal issues, including those not yet addressed in the first phase, such as the overall governance of the Withdrawal Agreement and substantive issues such as intellectual property rights, protection of personal data and customs-related matters needed for the UK's orderly withdrawal from the EU.

Next steps

The Commission will publish in due course a draft legal text of the Withdrawal Agreement, of which transitional arrangements form part. The overall Article 50 Agreement will need to be concluded by the Council (Article 50), the European Parliament and the United Kingdom according to its own constitutional requirements.

Background

On 8 December 2017, the European Commission recommended to the European Council (Art 50) to conclude that sufficient progress has been made in the first phase of the Article 50 negotiations with the UK. On 15 December, the leaders of the EU27 confirmed that sufficient progress had been achieved on citizen's rights, Ireland and the financial settlement, and adopted guidelines to move to the second phase of the negotiations. This also follows a resolution on 13 December by the European Parliament confirming that sufficient progress has been made. On 20 December, the European Commission sent a Recommendation to the Council (Art 50) to begin discussions on the next phase of the orderly withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union.

The European Council (Art 50) guidelines of 29 April 2017 as well as the general principles and the procedural arrangements for the conduct of the negotiations established in the Council negotiating directives of 22 May 2017 continue to apply in their entirety to this phase of the negotiations.
 
olle
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Mon Jan 29, 2018 4:04 pm

Will uk people enter rest of EU as EU citizen or will they be considered 3rd country?
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Mon Jan 29, 2018 4:19 pm

olle wrote:
Will uk people enter rest of EU as EU citizen or will they be considered 3rd country?


Hard Brexit --> non EU citizen, long lines, visa perhaps?
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Mon Jan 29, 2018 9:36 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
olle wrote:
Will uk people enter rest of EU as EU citizen or will they be considered 3rd country?


Hard Brexit --> non EU citizen, long lines, visa perhaps?


Non EU citizen - yes
Long lines - potentially, depending on how busy the airport is.

Visa - certainly not, unless you want to sign a death sentence on the heavily tourist dependent economies like most of spain, greece and Portugal. You know yourself, visas will not happen, if that's the case, your probably going to need a visa at the irish border, which ireland do not want.


I do not think (hope), a hard Brexit will happen, they can't be that stupid.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Mon Jan 29, 2018 9:39 pm

Dutchy wrote:
olle wrote:
Will uk people enter rest of EU as EU citizen or will they be considered 3rd country?


Hard Brexit --> non EU citizen, long lines, visa perhaps?


Non EU citizen - yes
Long lines - potentially, depending on how busy the airport is.

Visa - certainly not, unless you want to sign a death sentence on the heavily tourist dependent economies like most of spain, greece and Portugal. You know yourself, visas will not happen, if that's the case, your probably going to need a visa at the irish border, which ireland do not want.
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Dano1977
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Mon Jan 29, 2018 10:04 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

Hard Brexit --> non EU citizen, long lines, visa perhaps?


Non EU citizen - yes
Long lines - potentially, depending on how busy the airport is.

Visa - certainly not, unless you want to sign a death sentence on the heavily tourist dependent economies like most of spain, greece and Portugal. You know yourself, visas will not happen, if that's the case, your probably going to need a visa at the irish border, which ireland do not want.


I do not think (hope), a hard Brexit will happen, they can't be that stupid.


Oh yes we can.... :old:
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Arion640
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:38 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

Hard Brexit --> non EU citizen, long lines, visa perhaps?


Non EU citizen - yes
Long lines - potentially, depending on how busy the airport is.

Visa - certainly not, unless you want to sign a death sentence on the heavily tourist dependent economies like most of spain, greece and Portugal. You know yourself, visas will not happen, if that's the case, your probably going to need a visa at the irish border, which ireland do not want.


I do not think (hope), a hard Brexit will happen, they can't be that stupid.


Well it would be nice to get at least a fairly sensible one. But some may argue that should mean no brexit at all.
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:06 am

Come on, it is Brino now. "Brexit in name only"
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:05 am

EU ministers, who approved the new negotiating directives at a meeting on Monday of the General Affairs Council, also portrayed the EU terms of the transition as effectively non-negotiable.

Appearing with Barnier at the news conference because her country currently holds the EU’s rotating presidency, Bulgarian Foreign Minister Ekaterina Zaharieva pointedly said: “The U.K. will no longer participate in the institutions and decision-making in the EU.”

Another senior EU official said neither Barnier nor the U.K. were given any wiggle room.

“We gave Michel Barnier today a mandate to explain rather than to negotiate,” the minister said. “On transition, it isn’t really a negotiation.”
 
olle
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:34 am

No visa yes; but EU presents a model similar equal to immigration to us esta - eitas that most people will consider as a visa light.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Jan 30, 2018 1:10 pm

Most of the world outside of the EU know about and use visas, indeed many EU citizens who travel outside of the EU have used them before, why is this such a big deal?
On one side we have those who say the UK economy will decline by X percentage, protection of citizens will decline, environment will suffer, food stock will become unhealthy, Ireland will become a flash point again, and the big take away is a concern on visas?

On the other side, the UK is being self neutered, politicians and elites rejecting the wishes of the people, the campaign to beat down the citizens to accept BRINO or whatever they call it, ignoring funding for domestic issues but agreeing to billions to the EU for neutering, having a cabinet split between leavers and remainer's where the majority are remainer's and thus cannot create a coherent strategy to leave, those are much bigger concerns than visas.

Funny thing is, even if the beat down works and the citizens fall in line with the politicians and just throw their hands up and accept whatever the EU demands and stay in the EU however the EU wants or accepts them to stay, the UK will be worse off than they were prior to the vote and article 50.

I guess when those economic realities hit they can always blame that on the delusion of the millions who voted leave and hold the politicians who secured the best deal that they could as heroes.
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Jan 30, 2018 1:37 pm

par13del wrote:
Most of the world outside of the EU know about and use visas, indeed many EU citizens who travel outside of the EU have used them before, why is this such a big deal?


Because there's massive traffic both ways and people get used to just being waved through. No one likes being stuck on a long slow moving line after a short flight.

And then there's the whole Irish thing....
 
UltimoTiger777
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Jan 30, 2018 5:31 pm

Britain and a number of other EU states (such as France) abolished visa controls a looooooooooooooooooooooong time ago, before the EU (or European Coal and Steel Community as it was) even existed.

http://treaties.fco.gov.uk/docs/pdf/1946/TS0071.pdf
http://treaties.fco.gov.uk/docs/pdf/1947/TS0026.pdf
http://treaties.fco.gov.uk/docs/pdf/1947/TS0007.pdf
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:38 pm

UltimoTiger777 wrote:
Britain and a number of other EU states (such as France) abolished visa controls a looooooooooooooooooooooong time ago, before the EU (or European Coal and Steel Community as it was) even existed.


Null and void now.

You can't deal with individual countries but with the EU as a whole so you can't have visa free travel with France but not with, say, Poland.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:59 pm

JJJ wrote:
UltimoTiger777 wrote:
Britain and a number of other EU states (such as France) abolished visa controls a looooooooooooooooooooooong time ago, before the EU (or European Coal and Steel Community as it was) even existed.


Null and void now.

You can't deal with individual countries but with the EU as a whole so you can't have visa free travel with France but not with, say, Poland.


I assume that the EU only made such agreements null and void within the EU, hopefully they are not pushing to have such agreements abolished outside of the EU.
 
L410Turbolet
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:49 pm

JJJ wrote:
You can't deal with individual countries but with the EU as a whole so you can't have visa free travel with France but not with, say, Poland.


Of course you can. It's a one-way street. States outside the EU can choose whatever visa regime they want towards individual EU states, the catch is that it doesn't work the other way around because of Schengen.
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:58 pm

L410Turbolet wrote:
JJJ wrote:
You can't deal with individual countries but with the EU as a whole so you can't have visa free travel with France but not with, say, Poland.


Of course you can. It's a one-way street. States outside the EU can choose whatever visa regime they want towards individual EU states, the catch is that it doesn't work the other way around because of Schengen.


We're talking about Brits being able to travel to the EU. You can't get that through individual countries.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:48 pm

JJJ wrote:
We're talking about Brits being able to travel to the EU. You can't get that through individual countries.

In the words of a certain politician, the Brits are leaving, why would the EU want them to visit.
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jan 31, 2018 2:18 pm

par13del wrote:
JJJ wrote:
We're talking about Brits being able to travel to the EU. You can't get that through individual countries.

In the words of a certain politician, the Brits are leaving, why would the EU want them to visit.


Is that a serious comment?
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jan 31, 2018 8:48 pm

par13del wrote:
JJJ wrote:
We're talking about Brits being able to travel to the EU. You can't get that through individual countries.

In the words of a certain politician, the Brits are leaving, why would the EU want them to visit.


I just laughed at this.

So you can get into lots of countries with an EU passport without a visa. Why would they impose them on UK passports even though countries like Greece, Spain etc are begging to take tourists money.
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olle
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Thu Feb 01, 2018 10:08 am

Arion640 wrote:
par13del wrote:
JJJ wrote:
We're talking about Brits being able to travel to the EU. You can't get that through individual countries.

In the words of a certain politician, the Brits are leaving, why would the EU want them to visit.


I just laughed at this.

So you can get into lots of countries with an EU passport without a visa. Why would they impose them on UK passports even though countries like Greece, Spain etc are begging to take tourists money.


There will be no VISA between UK and EU. What will be is ETIAS that is a registration end precheck for a few €.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Thu Feb 01, 2018 10:32 am

olle wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
par13del wrote:
In the words of a certain politician, the Brits are leaving, why would the EU want them to visit.


I just laughed at this.

So you can get into lots of countries with an EU passport without a visa. Why would they impose them on UK passports even though countries like Greece, Spain etc are begging to take tourists money.


There will be no VISA between UK and EU. What will be is ETIAS that is a registration end precheck for a few €.


No nothing of the sorts.
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olle
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:43 pm

EITAS will apply for all non EU or Schengen citizens / residents;

https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/etias/
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Thu Feb 01, 2018 6:02 pm

par13del wrote:
Funny thing is, even if the beat down works and the citizens fall in line with the politicians and just throw their hands up and accept whatever the EU demands


That is pretty much the only alternative to a hard Brexit, but a hard Brexit is already precluded by the Ireland agreement which the UK would have to blow up, too.

and stay in the EU however the EU wants or accepts them to stay,


That is neither desired nor expected on the part of the EU.

If the UK should make a U-turn, however, at least some european politicians would probably be receptive to UK offers in return for the required unanimous consent of the EU27 to allow that.

the UK will be worse off than they were prior to the vote and article 50.


That is a certainty in any possible case anyway.

I guess when those economic realities hit they can always blame that on the delusion of the millions who voted leave and hold the politicians who secured the best deal that they could as heroes.


I'm pretty sure there will be some reckoning in a decade or so, but we'll see if it will fizzle out similarly to the Iraq inquiry.
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:54 pm

Barnier is back in town, but it all may be for nought anyway.

Jacob Rees-Mogg, Brexiteer extraordinaire, has decided that this is the moment for him to shine. It's all very entertaining, but if he and his ilk (Baker, IDS, Hannan etc) continue down this path of tearing down all that stands between them and their version of Brexit, they will do irreparable damage to key institutions of the "sovereignty" they claim to desire namely the civil service, the Tory party and Parliamentary democracy.

Not that it's not fun. Seeing a former civil servant chief compare Brexiteers to snake oil salesman was amusing, with the added benefit of having its desired effect on visibly stung Brexiteers like Ian Duncan Smith. And so it goes. Pyrrhic victories all around. Institutions desecrated all around.

Personally, I would be quite happy to see Mogg and co take control from here. If only for the sheer comedic value.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:52 am

Well the civil service and the DC government of the day only have themselves to blame for (a) Project Fear (b) The citizen lack of faith in their projections.
Now since the civil service did not turn over when DC left, one has to assume that the same folks who generated and embellished project fear numbers to convince the folks to vote stay are the same ones working on the numbers now.

As for Rees-Mogg, I still have to look for the first part of this debate that preceded his response
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vUKjTPPcOdQ
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:05 am

It seems to me, that with the latest May and DD declarations that the UK is trying to achieve a hard brexit while actively trying to push the blame on the EU. I see no other reason for asking to things so opposite at the same time: out of the custom union and frictionless trade.....
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:44 am

L410Turbolet wrote:
JJJ wrote:
You can't deal with individual countries but with the EU as a whole so you can't have visa free travel with France but not with, say, Poland.


Of course you can. It's a one-way street. States outside the EU can choose whatever visa regime they want towards individual EU states, the catch is that it doesn't work the other way around because of Schengen.


3rd countries outside the EU can do such as much as they can negotiate different visa rules for people from different US states.

Best regards
Thomas
This signature is a safe place.
 
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WildcatYXU
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:41 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
L410Turbolet wrote:
JJJ wrote:
You can't deal with individual countries but with the EU as a whole so you can't have visa free travel with France but not with, say, Poland.


Of course you can. It's a one-way street. States outside the EU can choose whatever visa regime they want towards individual EU states, the catch is that it doesn't work the other way around because of Schengen.


3rd countries outside the EU can do such as much as they can negotiate different visa rules for people from different US states.

Best regards
Thomas


Are you sure? This list https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visa_Waiver_Program is missing several EU27 member countries. One of them is even a Schengen country.
But yes, who cares about those eastern Europeans anyway...
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tommy1808
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:45 pm

WildcatYXU wrote:
Are you sure? This list https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visa_Waiver_Program is missing several EU27 member countries. One of them is even a Schengen country.
But yes, who cares about those eastern Europeans anyway...


Yup, that is why the EU comission is working hard by diplomatic means to get the US into compliance with local rules, the EU parliament has already made a resolution to end visa free travel for US citizens, if the US remains stubborn. If the comission thinks talks are getting no-where, that is going to happen.

https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/sites ... ism_en.pdf

I think we need an EU regulation requiring reciprocity with no other option but ending visa free travel automatically for non-compliance countries, but since it is the EU, the approach is more slowly heating the water until it boils instead of using a hammer.....

But this problem is US specific, since VISA Waiver is an old problem and way back when it was still legal to have such agreements.

best regards
Thomas
This signature is a safe place.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Feb 06, 2018 5:48 pm

Per a.net logic, eliminating visa free travel for US citizens will hurt the EU more, after all, since 911 with the new travel restrictions and now the current POTUS, EU travel to the US should be minimal, however, US travel to Europe is still high, but principle is principle so....
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:17 pm

par13del wrote:
Well the civil service and the DC government of the day only have themselves to blame for (a) Project Fear (b) The citizen lack of faith in their projections.
Now since the civil service did not turn over when DC left, one has to assume that the same folks who generated and embellished project fear numbers to convince the folks to vote stay are the same ones working on the numbers now.

As for Rees-Mogg, I still have to look for the first part of this debate that preceded his response
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vUKjTPPcOdQ


I'd expect that response from a Brexit ideologue, not from anyone who has given it any thought.

"Project Fear" got the scale wrong. It didn't get the trend wrong. Aside from the JRMs, nobody really contests the high likelihood that there are significant negative economic consequences associated with Brexit. It's clear, for example, that the UK hasn't benefitted as much from the global economic upturn as other countries have. It's also not disputed that businesss have slowed down investment due to uncertainty, which has an economic cost. Hence the transition deal and the general desire to avoid a hard Brexit. Project Fear may have gotten some of the scale and details wrong, but it's overall message - that the UK will be worse off - hasn't really been disproved yet.

That citizens lack faith in the Government and the Civil Service is probably more attributable to Brexiteer attacks on those institutions, than to anything the Government or Civil Service has done. Over the past year, Brexiteers have attacked:

- The independent judiciary ("enemies of the people")
- MPs ("traitors")
- The House of Lords
- The Civil Service

And those are just the Government institutions. MNCs, Banks, the CBI etc have also been subjected to the same attacks. Easy to forget that it will be the "experts", the "elite", the bureaucrats and the captains of industry who will be critical for "success"/damage limitation going forward. Generally a bad idea to bite the hand that feeds you. If these highly educated/skilled folk/"experts" decide they've had enough and step away from the wheel, who's going to do their job?
 
LAH1
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:11 pm

ElPistolero wrote:


That citizens lack faith in the Government and the Civil Service is probably more attributable to Brexiteer attacks on those institutions, than to anything the Government or Civil Service has done. Over the past year, Brexiteers have attacked:

- The independent judiciary ("enemies of the people")
- MPs ("traitors")
- The House of Lords
- The Civil Service

And those are just the Government institutions. MNCs, Banks, the CBI etc have also been subjected to the same attacks. Easy to forget that it will be the "experts", the "elite", the bureaucrats and the captains of industry who will be critical for "success"/damage limitation going forward. Generally a bad idea to bite the hand that feeds you. If these highly educated/skilled folk/"experts" decide they've had enough and step away from the wheel, who's going to do their job?


I think it's more true to say that many citizens lost faith in those institutions before the referendum which, in many cases, caused the vote to swing the way it did. It was an opportunity for those who felt they had no voice to raise them. But that is an opinion that has been mentioned here many times already.
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Feb 07, 2018 4:57 pm

LAH1 wrote:
ElPistolero wrote:


That citizens lack faith in the Government and the Civil Service is probably more attributable to Brexiteer attacks on those institutions, than to anything the Government or Civil Service has done. Over the past year, Brexiteers have attacked:

- The independent judiciary ("enemies of the people")
- MPs ("traitors")
- The House of Lords
- The Civil Service

And those are just the Government institutions. MNCs, Banks, the CBI etc have also been subjected to the same attacks. Easy to forget that it will be the "experts", the "elite", the bureaucrats and the captains of industry who will be critical for "success"/damage limitation going forward. Generally a bad idea to bite the hand that feeds you. If these highly educated/skilled folk/"experts" decide they've had enough and step away from the wheel, who's going to do their job?


I think it's more true to say that many citizens lost faith in those institutions before the referendum which, in many cases, caused the vote to swing the way it did. It was an opportunity for those who felt they had no voice to raise them. But that is an opinion that has been mentioned here many times already.


It's a commonly held view, sure, but I question its validity. There was general frustration with the status quo, but prior to the referendum, it manifested mostly as a dormant malaise. Brexiteers weaponised this frustration and malaise against the EU during the campaign, and it worked for them.

Problem is, the likes of Gove, driven by ego or self-interest, decided to weaponise it against the government and "experts" too. With predictable results. Witness the attacks on the independent judiciary, both Houses of Parliament, and the Civil Service. These are all key institutions of the democracy that Brexiteers profess to support.

It's all a bit absurd. I'm not British, so I quite enjoyed the bizarre spectacle of watching self-professed democrats attack a key tenet of any respectable democracy - the independent judiciary or as our Brexiteer friends call them, the "enemies of the people". (And then they wonder why the rest of the world thinks they aren't the sharpest tools in the shed)

It's all very amusing. Till it gets dangerous. Marking the EU as an enemy is silly, but it has the somewhat redeeming quality of not undermining ones own institutions. Attacking one's own institutions on the other hand is dangerous. If you stop believing that Parliament and Government (including the civil service), with their monopoly on all types of information, no longer feel bound by their oath to act in the national interest, then you're inviting long-term instability.

One would think that it's time to roll it back. But not the Brexiteers. Gove's wife, unsurprisingly, has today declared that the civil service is full of "egomaniacs" who are willing to drive Britain into the ground.

It's all a bit surreal, even to those of us who enjoy a dose of schadenfreude.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Feb 07, 2018 5:04 pm

ElPistolero wrote:
That citizens lack faith in the Government and the Civil Service is probably more attributable to Brexiteer attacks on those institutions, than to anything the Government or Civil Service has done. Over the past year, Brexiteers have attacked:

- The independent judiciary ("enemies of the people")
- MPs ("traitors")
- The House of Lords
- The Civil Service

And those are just the Government institutions. MNCs, Banks, the CBI etc have also been subjected to the same attacks. Easy to forget that it will be the "experts", the "elite", the bureaucrats and the captains of industry who will be critical for "success"/damage limitation going forward. Generally a bad idea to bite the hand that feeds you. If these highly educated/skilled folk/"experts" decide they've had enough and step away from the wheel, who's going to do their job?

I would think that the citizens lack of faith is due to the overwhelming chorus from those who say that: 1. Millions did not know what they were voting for
and 2: Millions expected to leave the EU and everything would continue as is with no downturn, change or live, operations, etc etc etc.
Project Fear also had an opposite side.

Facts are that when and if the UK leaves the EU there will be an economic hit, the primary difference between the Leave and the Remain side is that one side believes that the UK can live, survive and even thrive outside of the EU and are willing to take an economic hit to achieve their independence, the other side does not share that view.

The main failing right now is that the conflict between the sides is hurting the UK. A UK outside of the EU will be a competitor to the EU, the EU knows this and are working to eliminate the competition, the amount of the competition is not as relevant as the fact that the competition exist, as we have all seen the economic impact of the UK on the EU is minimal, so it has to be about principle. Even the hole in the EU budget seems to be no issue now, one has to wonder if all and sundry have seen the commitment that the UK government has made to keep the EU whole and for how long. All funds expended to keep the EU hole are less funds to establish the UK and make its independence a success, funds are not finite.

Rebates are gone, thus the UK is already worse off than before the trigger of article 50, the rest of the story is how much more before they even get to negotiations outside of the EU.
 
ElPistolero
Posts: 1363
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Feb 07, 2018 5:39 pm

par13del wrote:
I would think that the citizens lack of faith is due to the overwhelming chorus from those who say that: 1. Millions did not know what they were voting for
and 2: Millions expected to leave the EU and everything would continue as is with no downturn, change or live, operations, etc etc etc.
Project Fear also had an opposite side.

Facts are that when and if the UK leaves the EU there will be an economic hit, the primary difference between the Leave and the Remain side is that one side believes that the UK can live, survive and even thrive outside of the EU and are willing to take an economic hit to achieve their independence, the other side does not share that view.

The main failing right now is that the conflict between the sides is hurting the UK. A UK outside of the EU will be a competitor to the EU, the EU knows this and are working to eliminate the competition, the amount of the competition is not as relevant as the fact that the competition exist, as we have all seen the economic impact of the UK on the EU is minimal, so it has to be about principle. Even the hole in the EU budget seems to be no issue now, one has to wonder if all and sundry have seen the commitment that the UK government has made to keep the EU whole and for how long. All funds expended to keep the EU hole are less funds to establish the UK and make its independence a success, funds are not finite.

Rebates are gone, thus the UK is already worse off than before the trigger of article 50, the rest of the story is how much more before they even get to negotiations outside of the EU.


Perhaps. Or they're losing faith in government because it serves as a convenient proxy for their own lack of due diligence or failure to think things through. It's an easy target for people who already have a propensity for blaming others (Eurocrats, immigrants etc).

I don't disagree either with your characterization of remainers and leavers although I will ask this question: if Brexit results in job redundancies, will Brexit voters voluntary stand down so that remainers can keep their jobs, what with Brexit being "about more than the economy"? I sincerely doubt it. Remainers and leavers are different (indeed research shows that these are becoming important social identities). Perhaps it's more accurate to say that Leavers are okay with an economic hit that they think (perhaps reflecting their intellectual acuity) won't affect them personally, while Remainers realize that the economic hit may well affect them personally.

The competition aspect is overblown. The EU competes with the China and the US. The UK is relatively small by comparison. Even a Singapore model won't really affect the EU as long as it controls access to its own market. Big companies will still have to build HQs and factories there to cater to that market. And a deregulated UK a la the Rees-Mogg/Minford model, with unilateral free trade, will wipe out most, if not all of, the UK's manufacturing base, so you can take that competition off the table. What we know definitely won't happen is a heavily deregulated UK with EU market access (which is what this is all about). In any event, it's moot - many multinational trading companies already apply the most stringent regulatory standards (in this case the EUs) to maintain flexibility. Weaker U.K. regulations are unlikely to change that.

I don't know what constitutes a successful Brexit, but economics aside, the social impact of Brexit has been anything but positive.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Feb 07, 2018 5:55 pm

The problem is that the UK does not know what it wants, at the moments it wants impossible things like: We won´t be part of any customs union, the border to Ireland will be fully open. The big mistake was to not go for the hard Brexit. No compromise with the EU and no future relationship. This could be achieved today and the UK could be free to find better partners on the global scale.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:39 pm

ElPistolero wrote:
Perhaps. Or they're losing faith in government because it serves as a convenient proxy for their own lack of due diligence or failure to think things through. It's an easy target for people who already have a propensity for blaming others (Eurocrats, immigrants etc).

As the DC government was a firm believer in staying in the EU, all their materials was geared towards that end, so the government of the day did think things through and did do its best to educate the people on the dire consequences of leaving. The DC government is faulted for actually allowing the public to vote on the issue when no vote was required, the TM government is faulted for actually agreeing to implement the results even though they had no legal requirement to do so., (moral is another story)
ElPistolero wrote:
I don't disagree either with your characterization of remainers and leavers although I will ask this question: if Brexit results in job redundancies

It will result in redundancies, full stop. Redundancies were always on the cards as such is the makeup of the EU integration, EU institutions resident in the UK have to be relocated once the UK leaves, so yes, those in support of the EU were always looking at either relocating, becoming citizens of another EU country or finding other jobs. I don't think everyone working for the EU in the UK voted stay, too many people, and they more than anyone else know / knew the rules.
ElPistolero wrote:
Remainers and leavers are different (indeed research shows that these are becoming important social identities). Perhaps it's more accurate to say that Leavers are okay with an economic hit that they think (perhaps reflecting their intellectual acuity) won't affect them personally, while Remainers realize that the economic hit may well affect them personally.

Notice that no one is a citizen anymore, you are either for the EU or against the EU, and we still have persons saying the EU is not a country but a collection of member countries working together for the common good, the social aspect does make one go hhmmmmm.
ElPistolero wrote:
And a deregulated UK a la the Rees-Mogg/Minford model, with unilateral free trade, will wipe out most, if not all of, the UK's manufacturing base, so you can take that competition off the table.

The UK gave up a lot of its manufacturing base a long time ago, some say started under Thatcher, in any event, it is now mostly a service economy, and you do mean a regulated economy by the UK right, not a deregulated economy? On this site, we always hear about the percentage of content that US manufacturers place into Airbus products, so if the UK leaves the EU......
ElPistolero wrote:
What we know definitely won't happen is a heavily deregulated UK with EU market access (which is what this is all about). In any event, it's moot - many multinational trading companies already apply the most stringent regulatory standards (in this case the EUs) to maintain flexibility. Weaker U.K. regulations are unlikely to change that.

Unfortunately, most fail to realize that, many companies in the EU trade outside of the EU and they have to meet different standards, they do so every day without loosing millions of dollars, loosing staff, productive hours, sky not falling, etc etc etc, think we can all agree that when one goes into battle nothing is sacred and the first casualty is always the truth.

I am still shocked that no one is talking about the financial windfall of WTO or whatever non-EU trade rules that could be implemented, the increased income from higher tariffs could be used to offset a number of things including higher cost of products.
The cost of living in the UK will have to rise, funds have to be obtained from somewhere to fund the transition, and the more they desire from the EU the more it will cost while their economy is shrinking, the only bottomless pit that exist the world over is the tax payer, who always has the ability to pay more.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:48 pm

seahawk wrote:
The problem is that the UK does not know what it wants, at the moments it wants impossible things like: We won´t be part of any customs union, the border to Ireland will be fully open. The big mistake was to not go for the hard Brexit. No compromise with the EU and no future relationship. This could be achieved today and the UK could be free to find better partners on the global scale.

Well it depends on who you mean when you say the UK, we talking about the millions who voted leave, the politicians who want to stay, the business houses who are afraid, those who are eager to try something new, etc etc etc.

What the UK did not and does not have is a cabinet and PM geared towards implementing Brexit, in my opinion the first major flaw was to create a cabinet split down the middle, the UK system of governance - be it inside or outside of parliament - has enough protections in it that whether the cabinet was 80-20 Brexit supporters the voice and concern of the Remain side would have always been heard, after all, the first court case was not bought by any member of parliament, but a private citizen and it did delay the process.
What the greater percentage would have done - on either side of the fence - was ensure that the message was clarified and agreed long before they actually sat down with the EU, if the greater was Remain, soft Brexit would have been the main talking point, if Leave, hard Brexit would have been it, instead, with a 50 /50 split we have who knows what on which day. Personally, I can only say that if TM thought that those in support of either side would willingly give up their positions for the greater good she was delusional.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 7180
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:07 pm

par13del wrote:
Unfortunately, most fail to realize that, many companies in the EU trade outside of the EU and they have to meet different standards, they do so every day without loosing millions of dollars, loosing staff, productive hours, sky not falling, etc etc etc, think we can all agree that when one goes into battle nothing is sacred and the first casualty is always the truth..


That is not because implementing different certifications is not all that bad, it is because most standards are highly harmonised across the globe.

CE is not that different from FCC, CCC is not that different from either.
Toss in a CB certificate and you get your goods pretty much anywhere.

Even standards for cars are harmonised enough that companies can build global car models with basically just cosmetic differences.

So, either the UK gives itself a standard almost identical to the existing ones, or it gets expensive for UK companies to serve both markets.
The need for close to identical standards extends to future changes, and for the time being the standards everyone follows are set by the US and the EU, with only China having a shot at weighing in.

Whatever standards the UK is going to set for itself, unless they want to damage the economy on purpose they may very well just write "paste EU/US regulations here".

Best regards
Thomas
This signature is a safe place.
 
LJ
Posts: 4400
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:13 pm

Meanwhile a Dutch judge ruled today that the European Court of Justice must look at the question whether a British citizen living in The Netherlands prior to the Brexit vote should be considerd an European citizen. A group of British citizens living in Amsterdam argue that whilst they have a British passport, this doesn't mean they aren't a an European citizen, despite the fcat that the UK opted to leave the EU. The Dutch government agrued that it's not up to the Courts to decide if British citizens living in the EU prior to the Brexit are "European citizens" or not, but that this should be established during negociations. As such the matter shoudl not go to the ECJ. However, the Dutch State lost and now the ECJ must look at it.


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/07/british-group-wins-right-to-take-brexit-case-to-european-court
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:15 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Whatever standards the UK is going to set for itself, unless they want to damage the economy on purpose they may very well just write "paste EU/US regulations here".

Best regards
Thomas

....which is the basic premise of the sweeping powers act bill presently being debated in the UK parliament, at issue is not whether they will use them but how much additional power it may or may not hand to the various ministers to finally make modifications, once we get past the shouting, some things are simple.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:23 pm

LJ wrote:
Meanwhile a Dutch judge ruled today that the European Court of Justice must look at the question whether a British citizen living in The Netherlands prior to the Brexit vote should be considerd an European citizen. A group of British citizens living in Amsterdam argue that whilst they have a British passport, this doesn't mean they aren't a an European citizen, despite the fcat that the UK opted to leave the EU. The Dutch government agrued that it's not up to the Courts to decide if British citizens living in the EU prior to the Brexit are "European citizens" or not, but that this should be established during negociations. As such the matter shoudl not go to the ECJ. However, the Dutch State lost and now the ECJ must look at it.


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/07/british-group-wins-right-to-take-brexit-case-to-european-court

Which is fine, based on the foundations of the EU, I think the judge ruled correctly. Now we will see whether the ECJ will make its determination independent of the current negotiations.
I suspect the ruling will take some time which will coincidentally occur after the Brexit negotiations are completed.
Hopefully those UK citizens will take a page out of the book of their country men in the UK and go get passports from other EU member countries, just to be sure, anything is fair game in negotiations. However, they may be well politically connected within the current UK government that they will see the UK pay additional funds to accommodate such cases throughout the EU, after all, it all comes down to money.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:27 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Whatever standards the UK is going to set for itself, unless they want to damage the economy on purpose they may very well just write "paste EU/US regulations here".

Best regards
Thomas

...but to do that would mean that the UK has to pay, abide by all fishing laws, ensure that Rock returns to Spain, freedom of movement is mandatory, no non-EU trade negotiations until 5 years after the transition period, no service from UK banks, etc etc etc.
Just for fun......
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:10 pm

par13del wrote:
Which is fine, based on the foundations of the EU, I think the judge ruled correctly. Now we will see whether the ECJ will make its determination independent of the current negotiations. I suspect the ruling will take some time which will coincidentally occur after the Brexit negotiations are completed.However, they may be well politically connected within the current UK government that they will see the UK pay additional funds to accommodate such cases throughout the EU, after all, it all comes down to money.


It's in the interest of the EU to know the answer from the ECJ as soon as possible as the EU may end up having to grant EU citizenship to Britons whilst the UK won't grant identical rights to EU citizens living in the UK.

par13del wrote:
Hopefully those UK citizens will take a page out of the book of their country men in the UK and go get passports from other EU member countries, just to be sure, anything is fair game in negotiations.


One of the reason why they went to Court in The Netherlands is, apart from the fact it's relatively cheap, that dual citizenship is not allowed in The Netherlands unless you have parents from two countries. Then again, you can always do what my colleague did, exchange your British passport for a Dutch one.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Sat Feb 10, 2018 11:32 am

par13del wrote:
Facts are that when and if the UK leaves the EU there will be an economic hit, the primary difference between the Leave and the Remain side is that one side believes that the UK can live, survive and even thrive outside of the EU and are willing to take an economic hit to achieve their independence, the other side does not share that view.


I don't think remainers don't believe the UK can make it outside the EU. They believe, however, that it will complicate their life, limit their opportunities (to work in any of 28 countries) and that it will take a long time for the UK to recover. Meaning after a decade of economic crisis, another decade of same.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
bananaboy
Posts: 1539
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2004 6:58 am

Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:35 am

Aesma wrote:
par13del wrote:
Facts are that when and if the UK leaves the EU there will be an economic hit, the primary difference between the Leave and the Remain side is that one side believes that the UK can live, survive and even thrive outside of the EU and are willing to take an economic hit to achieve their independence, the other side does not share that view.


I don't think remainers don't believe the UK can make it outside the EU. They believe, however, that it will complicate their life, limit their opportunities (to work in any of 28 countries) and that it will take a long time for the UK to recover. Meaning after a decade of economic crisis, another decade of same.


Bingo. All of this for twenty years or more of "pain" whilst voluntarily giving ourselves less relevance and influence with our closest neighbours, allies and trading partners. This is a colossal waste of time and energy - we had much more serious problems to focus on than this.

:roll:

Mark
All my life, I've been kissing, your top lip 'cause your bottom one's missing
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Mon Feb 12, 2018 1:51 pm

bananaboy wrote:
Bingo. All of this for twenty years or more of "pain" whilst voluntarily giving ourselves less relevance and influence with our closest neighbours, allies and trading partners. This is a colossal waste of time and energy - we had much more serious problems to focus on than this.

:roll:

Mark

Hmmm.... in the EU quarters some would like to see the back of the UK as they are regarded as the one preventing closer integration, the EU Army, not joining the Euro, Schengen etc etc etc, so when you say loosing relevance, is that in the minds of the UK or actual reality?
The whole Brexit issue is a result of DC trying and failing to get adjustments, indeed some on the EU side say they gave up too much to DC during his travels, so....perhaps reality is not what it seems?
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:00 pm

Aesma wrote:
and that it will take a long time for the UK to recover. Meaning after a decade of economic crisis, another decade of same.

....which is why in some quarters the Hard Brexit is the preferred solution, it means that the UK can hit the ground running from day one versus being in some temporary state where some may feel comfortable but the long term aim and gain is delayed, all while using precious funds to remain comfortable versus minimizing the economic hit, training up and putting infrastructure in place for the future, the fact that the Chancellor did not want to spend funds until the last minute says a lot.
It takes time to negotiate trade deals, yes it will be minimized when it is one on one versus one on 27,but still some time to cross all the I's and dot the T's, so being limited from any consequential negotiations while new rules / regulations are enforced and mandated will become a nightmare and not in the best interest of leave.
 
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Dutchy
Posts: 4568
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Mon Feb 12, 2018 7:41 pm

Ah well we can all joke about it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SoUDYvmFS2Y
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!

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