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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:08 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

Of course they do, the money grabbing EU wants british money.



:roll: Just go way with this kind of rubbish.


True I’m afraid. You don’t want your second biggest contributor to walk away.


I am not so sure, I changed my mind about Brexit, please do leave the EU so we can move forward more easily. All those exemptions, all those struggles will be gone.

The contribution is nothing, maximum of 1,23% of the gross national product, this is without the subsidies whom are invested in your country and without the rebait the UK had. And funny thing, Brexit is costing the Brittish taxpayer more, at this moment even before it is actually outside the EU, than they ever paid to the EU. So the financial argument doesn't hold up.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:33 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:


:roll: Just go way with this kind of rubbish.


True I’m afraid. You don’t want your second biggest contributor to walk away.


I am not so sure, I changed my mind about Brexit, please do leave the EU so we can move forward more easily. All those exemptions, all those struggles will be gone.

The contribution is nothing, maximum of 1,23% of the gross national product, this is without the subsidies whom are invested in your country and without the rebait the UK had. And funny thing, Brexit is costing the Brittish taxpayer more, at this moment even before it is actually outside the EU, than they ever paid to the EU. So the financial argument doesn't hold up.


If you read my post, I wasn’t saying about how much Britain pays into the EU or how much it is costing the tax payer.

I was just saying that we are the EU’s second biggest source of revenue. If the EU were a Business, it would be like losing the 2nd biggest customer.

I do totally agree with you on your first point though Dutchy, lets leave the EU as quickly as possible!
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par13del
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:38 pm

Dutchy wrote:

I am not so sure, I changed my mind about Brexit, please do leave the EU so we can move forward more easily. All those exemptions, all those struggles will be gone.

....be careful, that sounds like hard brexit...you may be regarded as delusional...
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:54 pm

par13del wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

I am not so sure, I changed my mind about Brexit, please do leave the EU so we can move forward more easily. All those exemptions, all those struggles will be gone.

....be careful, that sounds like hard brexit...you may be regarded as delusional...


I say this from someone whom is a firm supporter of the EU and would like it to have more success. Brittain hasn't contributed much to this and has only wanted to have exemptions. It would not be good for the UK though but could be a blessing in disguise for the EU. So in the end, for the UK and EU, the UK adopting Norway or Swiss model would be the best.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
UltimoTiger777
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:21 pm

par13del wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

I am not so sure, I changed my mind about Brexit, please do leave the EU so we can move forward more easily. All those exemptions, all those struggles will be gone.

....be careful, that sounds like hard brexit...you may be regarded as delusional...


Hard Brexit is the ultimate delusion for some leavers. The idea that walking away with no agreement puts us in some kind of position of strength when all it will lead to is being at the mercy of the likes of the US, China and India. Did you vote over concerns about immigration? Well get ready for India demanding much greater visa access to the UK when we're broke and desperate for a trade deal with them!

Of course the Ultras on the leave side have been aided and abetted by so many remain types who rubbished the EFTA option when it was the probably the best compromise given the small margin of victory and the fact so many leave figures were so fond of Norway and Iceland prior to 2016 (what changed I wonder?).
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:36 pm

UltimoTiger777 wrote:
.... the fact so many leave figures were so fond of Norway and Iceland prior to 2016 (what changed I wonder?).

If my memory is correct, all polls prior to the vote showed that the masses did not support either Norway or Iceland models....
I guess that's why the leavers chose to focus on fear versus strengths of staying in the EU or its various sub-options.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:48 pm

Dutchy wrote:
par13del wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

I am not so sure, I changed my mind about Brexit, please do leave the EU so we can move forward more easily. All those exemptions, all those struggles will be gone.

....be careful, that sounds like hard brexit...you may be regarded as delusional...


I say this from someone whom is a firm supporter of the EU and would like it to have more success. Brittain hasn't contributed much to this and has only wanted to have exemptions. It would not be good for the UK though but could be a blessing in disguise for the EU. So in the end, for the UK and EU, the UK adopting Norway or Swiss model would be the best.


I totally agree, but Norway is still got to have free movement so is a big no no.
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:51 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
par13del wrote:
....be careful, that sounds like hard brexit...you may be regarded as delusional...


I say this from someone whom is a firm supporter of the EU and would like it to have more success. Brittain hasn't contributed much to this and has only wanted to have exemptions. It would not be good for the UK though but could be a blessing in disguise for the EU. So in the end, for the UK and EU, the UK adopting Norway or Swiss model would be the best.


I totally agree, but Norway is still got to have free movement so is a big no no.


The Swiss model is still an option though....
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:01 pm

Dutchy wrote:
The Swiss model is still an option though....


Not really, as it does not solve Northern Ireland border issue.

No models meet the brexiters promises.... and for the most part they still don’t realise this (at least publicly they don’t).
 
UltimoTiger777
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:19 pm

Neither does the Customs Union everyone is a fan of.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:43 pm

Arion640 wrote:
And we would have to re apply for EU membership, meaning Euro and Schengen. Never going to happen.


Now who's running "project fear"? :spin:

Do you have a source for your very definitive opinion?

I believe it's actually undefined in EU articles what would happen if the UK did revoke Article 50 before March 29th.

All I've read suggests Article 50 can be revoked and everything simply reverts to where it was the day before it was invoked. Donald Tusk has previously said that it can be reversed and I don't believe it requires the approval of all the other members, either.
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Arion640
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:56 pm

scbriml wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
And we would have to re apply for EU membership, meaning Euro and Schengen. Never going to happen.


Now who's running "project fear"? :spin:

Do you have a source for your very definitive opinion?

I believe it's actually undefined in EU articles what would happen if the UK did revoke Article 50 before March 29th.

All I've read suggests Article 50 can be revoked and everything simply reverts to where it was the day before it was invoked. Donald Tusk has previously said that it can be reversed and I don't believe it requires the approval of all the other members, either.


My friend dutchy about a week ago was saying on here we would need to sign up to schengen and the euro, so with him being an experienced EU citizen, I naturally took his opinion.
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:39 pm

Arion640 wrote:
My friend dutchy about a week ago was saying on here we would need to sign up to schengen and the euro, so with him being an experienced EU citizen, I naturally took his opinion.


That would certainly be the case if we rejoined some time in the future after Brexit. But I don't believe it's the case if Article 50 is revoked before March 29th.

By the way, we're currently all experienced EU citizens. Including you! :wink2:
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par13del
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:00 am

scbriml wrote:
That would certainly be the case if we rejoined some time in the future after Brexit. But I don't believe it's the case if Article 50 is revoked before March 29th.

So an extension of the 2 year Article 50 period requires the consent of all EU members but a revocation during that period just requires the presenter to revoke?
I would be shocked if such an option was not considered based on the lengthy documents and procedures around the simple Article 50, someone has to bear the cost of all the spending that took place as a result of the filing, no one seems to like the word penalties, but the mindset is that this is all the fault of the UK, so.....

I can see that as being ideal for the UK but not for the EU, especially if someone decides that the UK will remain as it was before the filing, with rebates and opt outs.

Did the UK sign any documents on the divorce bill, I know the EU wanted something in writing and nothing has been said about the bill since late last year, would that just be torn up and ignored if the UK revoked?
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 6:05 am

scbriml wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
My friend dutchy about a week ago was saying on here we would need to sign up to schengen and the euro, so with him being an experienced EU citizen, I naturally took his opinion.


By the way, we're currently all experienced EU citizens. Including you! :wink2:


That’s true but I haven’t had the pleasure of Schengen and the Euro while our friends on the continent do!
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JJJ
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:01 am

Arion640 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

True I’m afraid. You don’t want your second biggest contributor to walk away.


I am not so sure, I changed my mind about Brexit, please do leave the EU so we can move forward more easily. All those exemptions, all those struggles will be gone.

The contribution is nothing, maximum of 1,23% of the gross national product, this is without the subsidies whom are invested in your country and without the rebait the UK had. And funny thing, Brexit is costing the Brittish taxpayer more, at this moment even before it is actually outside the EU, than they ever paid to the EU. So the financial argument doesn't hold up.


If you read my post, I wasn’t saying about how much Britain pays into the EU or how much it is costing the tax payer.

I was just saying that we are the EU’s second biggest source of revenue. If the EU were a Business, it would be like losing the 2nd biggest customer.


But it's not a business and plans are already in motion to cut spending in places to make up for it. The EU budget being tiny relative to national budgets helps.

As opposed to Britain which doesn't seem to have done jack all this time.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:40 am

scbriml wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
My friend dutchy about a week ago was saying on here we would need to sign up to schengen and the euro, so with him being an experienced EU citizen, I naturally took his opinion.


That would certainly be the case if we rejoined some time in the future after Brexit. But I don't believe it's the case if Article 50 is revoked before March 29th.

By the way, we're currently all experienced EU citizens. Including you! :wink2:


My friend Arion is a bit misleading, if you want to revoke Article 50, in one way or another the EU27 needs to approve that. And in my judgment, some of the benefits the UK enjoys will be revoked before the other memberstates will agree. might be Schengen, might be the Euro, might be the rebait, might be one o a dozen other things the UK have an exemption on.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:59 am

UltimoTiger777 wrote:
Neither does the Customs Union everyone is a fan of.


That's correct. As discussed up thread both the Single Market and Customs Union would be needed to solve the Northern Ireland Border issue.

Either Theresa Mays Red Lines have to disappear, or Irish Borders have to appear


Two years later and the Government/Brexiters still have not got a clue on how to solve this conundrum and how to deliver Brexit. Its interesting that neither Johnson or Davis gave a solution in their resignation letters, they have just quit and got out so they can try and distance themselves from any decision making and from the inevitable fall out (whilst going forward no doubt still insisting they could have done better, but never explaining how)
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:00 am

The EU would do everything to recover at least a part of the money the UK wasted on the EU. But that is not what the voter in the UK wanted - no more money for the EU was a clear message.
 
UltimoTiger777
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:01 am

But changing the opt outs is a completely different process to revoking A50 isn't it?

Are you just sore the Dutch government was too thick to ever negotiate its own opt outs?
 
UltimoTiger777
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:06 am

Richard28 wrote:
UltimoTiger777 wrote:
Neither does the Customs Union everyone is a fan of.


That's correct. As discussed up thread both the Single Market and Customs Union would be needed to solve the Northern Ireland Border issue.


Turkey's has a Customs Union with the EU doesn't it?

Remind me how friction-less the border between Turkey and Greece is.

All there needs to be is an agreement on tariffs once the UK rejoins EFTA and with the combined EEA membership, hey presto, no border despite no customs union.

And no customs union means no Common Commercial Policy which means the UK would be able to make its own bilateral trade agreements.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:35 am

UltimoTiger777 wrote:
Turkey's has a Customs Union with the EU doesn't it?


It is in a Customs Union, but not the same one as the rest of the EU.

The Turkish Customs Union does not cover areas such as agriculture, or services.

UltimoTiger777 wrote:
Remind me how friction-less the border between Turkey and Greece is.


Turkey does not have a friction-less border as it does not have a comprehensive customs union and is not part of the Single Market as such there is not a common rules book/equivalence in legislation.

UltimoTiger777 wrote:
All there needs to be is an agreement on tariffs once the UK rejoins EFTA and with the combined EEA membership, hey presto, no border despite no customs union.


No, we have gone through this before up thread. EFTA Countries do have borders with the EU - just check the border between Norway and Sweden as as an example:

https://goo.gl/maps/e9un7Vz3SKF2

You need both a customs agreement and convergence of legislation (i.e. a "Common Rule Book") to enable a friction-less border.

The Customs Union and Single Market separately do not achieve this - you need both.

UltimoTiger777 wrote:
And no customs union means no Common Commercial Policy which means the UK would be able to make its own bilateral trade agreements.


If you are not in the Customs Union, then yes you can make your own trade agreements, but also immediately lose the 65+ trade agreements that the Customs Union Provides, e.g. Canada, South Korea and soon Australia and New Zealand and you then also have an issue with the Good Friday Agreement and the Irish Border.


edit : forgot to add, the Schengen area is also needed to completely remove borders - as passport checks are then not required. UK/Ireland have a similar structure in place through the Common Travel Area,
Last edited by Richard28 on Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:42 am

Richard28 wrote:
UltimoTiger777 wrote:
Neither does the Customs Union everyone is a fan of.


That's correct. As discussed up thread both the Single Market and Customs Union would be needed to solve the Northern Ireland Border issue.

Either Theresa Mays Red Lines have to disappear, or Irish Borders have to appear


The problem is often illustrated by reference to the Irish border problem as there a Peace Agreement would have to be broken, but the very same problems would equally emerge on a vaster scale at the Channel ports too of course, with queues of waiting lorries spanning a distance all the way back to London almost!
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 10:03 am

sabenapilot wrote:
The problem is often illustrated by reference to the Irish border problem as there a Peace Agreement would have to be broken, but the very same problems would equally emerge on a vaster scale at the Channel ports too of course, with queues of waiting lorries spanning a distance all the way back to London almost!


yep! :checkmark:

I've been focusing on the political aspects, the consequences for trade and commerce would be pretty awful. One of my clients is in a position where they will either be forced to shut up the business or relocate to the EU. This isn't an Airbus or Land Rover, just a small British company with employees that deals with imports and exports - there will be thousands of others.
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 10:32 am

UltimoTiger777 wrote:
But changing the opt outs is a completely different process to revoking A50 isn't it?

Are you just sore the Dutch government was too thick to ever negotiate its own opt outs?


A club only works if everyone follows the rules. If every country had behaved the way the UK has there'd be no EU.

The UK is the country that jumped ship when EFTA (for which they were a founder) fell short, and now jumps again when the rules they helped design (like freedom of movement of labour, that was a Tory wet dream) are no longer acceptable.

All very sovereign and all that but it makes for a very disruptive partner. I'm sure a lot of people in Brussels can't wait to see their back but can't say it in public.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:37 am

Dutchy wrote:
My friend Arion is a bit misleading, if you want to revoke Article 50, in one way or another the EU27 needs to approve that.


Is this your opinion or is it codified somewhere?

Article 50 is pretty vague and I believe it is currently undefined what happens if the UK says "You know what, we've come to our senses and have decided to stay." We didn't need anyone else to approve us invoking A50, I'm of the view we don't need anyone else to approve of us revoking it (provided that happens before 29th March). If we did, I believe everything would revert to where it was prior to A50 being invoked.

All theoretical and my opinion.

Richard28 wrote:
Its interesting that neither Johnson or Davis gave a solution in their resignation letters, they have just quit and got out so they can try and distance themselves from any decision making and from the inevitable fall out (whilst going forward no doubt still insisting they could have done better, but never explaining how)


BoJo is a self-serving coward. A man who claimed he would lay down in front of the bulldozers if a third runway was approved at Heathrow, then "just happens" to be out of the country when it comes to a vote. He's nothing but bluster and noise.

Davis had one job to do. Worked at it for nearly two years and had absolutely nothing to show for it. We don't need a reboot of 'Yes Minister', we've got the real thing happening before our very eyes.
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There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:47 am

In the long run the EU needs to harmonize further to become more effective and relevant.
It doesn't mean it has to become a federal superstate, but the different types of opt outs from what have become additional EU pilars next to the 4 freedoms of the SM should all be on the way out: in future some others will thus have to decide too whether they are fully in, or fully out: simple as that really.
The days of a Europe à la carte are over with Brexit, as TM is learning the hardest possible way, so why would the EU continue to give a soon-to-be third country privileges it no longer wants to grand to (new) members? It's just not going to happen.
The idea of a Common Custom Territory for instance is dead on arrival: no government in the world lets a third country collect import duties on its behalf. Either the UK accepts a full CU with the EU, or nothing.
Same with the 4 pillars of the SM: they are entirely indivisible, so forget the fancy idea of remaining in just the "SM for Goods" only, especially with the extra red line of not accepting ECJ oversight over the UK on the common roolbook for those goods.
The Chequers proposal is all about cherry picking really, through a large list of additional opt outs vs the current situation...
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:55 am

scbriml wrote:
BoJo is a self-serving coward. A man who claimed he would lay down in front of the bulldozers if a third runway was approved at Heathrow, then "just happens" to be out of the country when it comes to a vote. He's nothing but bluster and noise.

Davis had one job to do. Worked at it for nearly two years and had absolutely nothing to show for it. We don't need a reboot of 'Yes Minister', we've got the real thing happening before our very eyes.

Only comment I would make on these two and any other Brexiters that were in the in cabinet was that the Head of the Govt. and the Holder of the finances were both remain, unfortunately we will never know what would have happened if Remain or Leave were actually put in charge versus the split cabinet that TM came up with which was designed to create gridlock, as most politicians inspite of 400+ of them giving the vote did not want to leave nor expect a no vote. A stacked cabinet would have made a decision on something a long time ago, gridlock on the UK side is to the detriment of the entire country not just the Tory party in negotiations with the EU, that should be clear by now, but.....

I honestly do not think the EU will find a way to accept that the UK can have a change of heart before Mar-2019 without penalty, but time will tell if TM elects that route after
the next rejection.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:58 am

scbriml wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
My friend Arion is a bit misleading, if you want to revoke Article 50, in one way or another the EU27 needs to approve that.


Is this your opinion or is it codified somewhere?

Article 50 is pretty vague and I believe it is currently undefined what happens if the UK says "You know what, we've come to our senses and have decided to stay." We didn't need anyone else to approve us invoking A50, I'm of the view we don't need anyone else to approve of us revoking it (provided that happens before 29th March). If we did, I believe everything would revert to where it was prior to A50 being invoked.

All theoretical and my opinion.


I think you're right scbriml

http://uk.businessinsider.com/foi-askin ... it-2017-10
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -brexit-eu

These articles discuss how Theresa May has sought legal advice on this very issue but refused to make the advice public.

Not sure the result of this freedom of information request - like most things the government has probably denied its release.

The article refers to "good sources" that have indicated however that this advice confirms Article 50 is revocable and that we would return to the existing EU membership terms.

So nothing concrete, but it is indicative that a decision to end this madness before March 2019 would be to our benefit.
Last edited by Richard28 on Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:01 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:00 pm

Richard28 wrote:
These articles discuss how Theresa May has sought legal advice on this very issue but refused to make the advice public.

What would be her reason for making public that she is looking for a way to invalidate a former PM and current PM promise to respect and implement the result of the vote?
Something major has to happen before she can invoke that card which she is hoping will be a get our of jail free card, a leadership challenge, defection of support etc may be the impetus, but a major event has to happen for her to make that public.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:00 pm

scbriml wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
My friend Arion is a bit misleading, if you want to revoke Article 50, in one way or another the EU27 needs to approve that.


Is this your opinion or is it codified somewhere?

Article 50 is pretty vague and I believe it is currently undefined what happens if the UK says "You know what, we've come to our senses and have decided to stay." We didn't need anyone else to approve us invoking A50, I'm of the view we don't need anyone else to approve of us revoking it (provided that happens before 29th March). If we did, I believe everything would revert to where it was prior to A50 being invoked.

All theoretical and my opinion.


Your question made me curious, so I looked it up:

This is the treaty: http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-li ... le-50.html


Article 50
Print Email
1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.


Article 49

Article 49
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Any European State which respects the values referred to in Article 2 and is committed to promoting them may apply to become a member of the Union. The European Parliament and national Parliaments shall be notified of this application. The applicant State shall address its application to the Council, which shall act unanimously after consulting the Commission and after receiving the assent of the European Parliament, which shall act by an absolute majority of its component members. The conditions of admission and the adjustments to the Treaties on which the Union is founded, which such admission entails, shall be the subject of an agreement between the Member States and the applicant State. This agreement shall be submitted for ratification by all the contracting States in accordance with their respective constitutional requirements. The conditions of eligibility agreed upon by the European Council shall be taken into account.


My conclusion would be that indeed the UK need to re-apply to the EU if they want to revoke it. So that would definitely not mean that everything stays the same because they need to meet every term of the EU, without exemptions. It is the nuclear option to submit an article 50 letter.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:09 pm

Regarding the return to normal ico article 50 being revoked unilaterally....
Dont forget the MAFF (the budget) for the next 6 years is currently being debated all without the UK, so if it were to be readmitted at a later stage again, the UK would simply have to take up its share according to the repartition key stipulated in the EU treaty: no more British rebate as that was never enshrined into any treaty.
Regardless any other British opt outs which could -or could not- be taken up again, but the concept of any rebate is already lost forever at the very least, as TM will discover pretty soon if and when she ever starts to negotiate the MAFF contributions linked to her desire to keep participating in the most expensive part of the SM still like she intends to do...
To put it simple: those new roads used to wheel British manufactured goods freely accross the entire EU all the way east to say Bulgaria aren't just building themselves in future, you know? They are paid from the MAFF with money made available from financial contributions by all those countries participating in the SM, including associated countries like Norway, Switzerland, or Lichtenstein, each of them to a higher pro capita sum than the UK currently does...
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:25 pm

Dutchy wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
My friend dutchy about a week ago was saying on here we would need to sign up to schengen and the euro, so with him being an experienced EU citizen, I naturally took his opinion.


That would certainly be the case if we rejoined some time in the future after Brexit. But I don't believe it's the case if Article 50 is revoked before March 29th.

By the way, we're currently all experienced EU citizens. Including you! :wink2:


My friend Arion is a bit misleading, if you want to revoke Article 50, in one way or another the EU27 needs to approve that. And in my judgment, some of the benefits the UK enjoys will be revoked before the other memberstates will agree. might be Schengen, might be the Euro, might be the rebait, might be one o a dozen other things the UK have an exemption on.


How is it me who is being misleading? The Pro Eu clan on here are the ones debating over if Article 50 can be reversed.
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:33 pm

Dutchy,

Thanks for the links.

I think the legal opinion here is centred on the word "intent" - in that the way we drafted our Article 50 letter it was about intending to leave. Intent, legally can be withdrawn, so whilst the provisions in Artcile 50 are explicit, if there is only an intent, that is then removed, the Article 50 provisions would then cease to apply.


UK Article 50 letter is here:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... d_Tusk.pdf

Its one for the lawyers I guess - I can see both sides.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:41 pm

Richard28 wrote:
Dutchy,

Thanks for the links.

I think the legal opinion here is centered on the word "intent" - in that the way we drafted our Article 50 letter it was about intending to leave. The intent, legally can be withdrawn, so whilst the provisions in Article 50 are explicit, if there is only an intent, that is then removed, the Article 50 provisions would then cease to apply.


UK Article 50 letter is here:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... d_Tusk.pdf

Its one for the lawyers I guess - I can see both sides.


I think it is understood that article 50 was triggered with this letter. Therefore this 2 year period was triggered. I am not a law scholar so I don't know the ins and outs, but to me it seems pretty clear and nothing in doubt, thus revoking isn't an option. Ah well, it is all academic anyway.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:27 pm

Dutchy wrote:
My conclusion would be that indeed the UK need to re-apply to the EU if they want to revoke it.


I'm sorry, Dutchy, but I'm struggling to see how you draw that conclusion. Article 50 is for existing members wanting to leave while 49 is for new members. Until 29th March, the UK is still a member of the EU.
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:53 pm

scbriml wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
My conclusion would be that indeed the UK need to re-apply to the EU if they want to revoke it.


I'm sorry, Dutchy, but I'm struggling to see how you draw that conclusion. Article 50 is for existing members wanting to leave while 49 is for new members. Until 29th March, the UK is still a member of the EU.


Well, article 50,5

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.


But I see what you are getting at, which is the legal definition of withdrawn? Is it at the moment of triggering article 50 or at the end of the two years. Article 50,3 says it shall apply forcefully after 2 years unless all member states agree to extent the period. Interesting there is no provision taken for revoking the Article 50 letter, so no procedure of how to handle this. So to that extent we can conclude that all the "powers" are with the remaining EU27 and none with the UK, the EU27 only has to wait for 2 years and the UK will be gone and than Article 50,5 applies.

But like I said I am not a lawyer, so don't take my word for it :lol:
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:59 pm

Anyway, if the UK tries to revoke article 50, it is the ECJ that will say if they can :)
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:37 pm

Dutchy wrote:
But like I said I am not a lawyer, so don't take my word for it :lol:


That makes you and me both! :highfive:

Olddog wrote:
Anyway, if the UK tries to revoke article 50, it is the ECJ that will say if they can :)


Why do you think it would be the ECJ's job to decide? Presumably it would only get that far if someone instigates a court case to try and prevent the revocation? See above.
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par13del
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:55 pm

scbriml wrote:
Why do you think it would be the ECJ's job to decide? Presumably it would only get that far if someone instigates a court case to try and prevent the revocation? See above.

...or someone ask the ECJ for clarification of whether the UK can revoke and render all commitments already agreed to during the 2 year transition as invalid.
Something had to have been triggered for the 29th Mar 2019 to be a set date, to me that is much more than intent. All the business house who have shelved or changed plans, residents who have increase the population count of Ireland, etc etc a whole lot was done just based on intent.
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:15 pm

Dutchy wrote:

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.:


The state in question won't have withdrawn from the Union until 29th March 2019. That state is free to withdrawn it's notice of intent to withdraw (article 50) at any time before then.

Clause 5 only applies AFTER the state has withdrawn, ie after 29th March 2019. Until that date the United Kingdom is a fully functioning EU member. If it want's to rejoin after said date, then it'd have to apply in accordance with article 49
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:20 pm

par13del wrote:
Something had to have been triggered for the 29th Mar 2019 to be a set date, to me that is much more than intent.


The date is set by the two-year time limit defined by Article 50 and is the second anniversary of the date the UK invoked it. Article 50 does also say that limit could be extended, but requires the unanimous agreement of all EU members.
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:33 pm

ChrisKen wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.:


The state in question won't have withdrawn from the Union until 29th March 2019. That state is free to withdrawn it's notice of intent to withdraw (article 50) at any time before then.

Clause 5 only applies AFTER the state has withdrawn, ie after 29th March 2019. Until that date the United Kingdom is a fully functioning EU member. If it want's to rejoin after said date, then it'd have to apply in accordance with article 49


Are you a scholar? Or do you have any reference to someone who is whom confirms this is the correct interpretation? It would surprise me quite a bit that this is the correct interpretation of article 50. That means that the power lies with the member whom triggered article 50, not with the remaining 27.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:39 pm

scbriml wrote:
Article 50 does also say that limit could be extended, but requires the unanimous agreement of all EU members.

...which is why I believe that it is not as simple as the UK just saying it will revoke its "intent" to leave.
However, like those who granted the vote to the people, I do not believe that the EU ever thought that Article 50 would ever be invoked, after all, it was not an integral part of the instruments of creation, it was done after.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:40 pm

ChrisKen wrote:
The state in question won't have withdrawn from the Union until 29th March 2019. That state is free to withdrawn it's notice of intent to withdraw (article 50) at any time before then.


:checkmark:
Any other interpretation would tilt the balance completely to one side. If you can only leave without any deal whatsoever, or the EU can dictate the conditions, because you can't even go back to being a member, we wouldn't really need negotiations.

par13del wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Why do you think it would be the ECJ's job to decide? Presumably it would only get that far if someone instigates a court case to try and prevent the revocation? See above.

...or someone ask the ECJ for clarification of whether the UK can revoke and render all commitments already agreed to during the 2 year transition as invalid.
Something had to have been triggered for the 29th Mar 2019 to be a set date, to me that is much more than intent. All the business house who have shelved or changed plans, residents who have increase the population count of Ireland, etc etc a whole lot was done just based on intent.


There should be protocols to all Lisbon treaty negotiations that should contain the whole discussion regarding art. 50 intents and purposes. I fail to see how no one could have asked "What if a state wants to change his mind, like after an election?" during that time....

But trying to find that.... phew... http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/docum ... lications/

Best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:59 pm

Richard28 wrote:
Dutchy,

Thanks for the links.

I think the legal opinion here is centred on the word "intent" - in that the way we drafted our Article 50 letter it was about intending to leave. Intent, legally can be withdrawn, so whilst the provisions in Artcile 50 are explicit, if there is only an intent, that is then removed, the Article 50 provisions would then cease to apply.


UK Article 50 letter is here:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... d_Tusk.pdf

Its one for the lawyers I guess - I can see both sides.


As paragraph 4 of Article 50 is currently being followed we can assume that Article 50 has been triggered.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 5:46 pm

I didn’t realise all the remainers on here had joined the tory party by tearing themselves apart on this thread. Talk about EU citizens united...
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Kestrel333
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 5:47 pm

In reality, no one really knows for sure whether the UK can simply revoke article 50 and carry on as normal.

Some UK politicians have said that we can't. The UK Supreme Court operates on the basis that we can't.

But the EU President has said we can revoke it. And the person who helped draft the article says we can as well. Though he says that some EU States might wish to make capital out of such a situation. More significantly, he said that the UK can't be forced to leave - suggesting that the other member states would not have to agree to the UK changing its mind.

So it's all a bit of an unknown. The evidence points to the UK being able to revoke Article 50 but how this would work is not clear.
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 5:52 pm

The EU has just to ask the UK to make a new referendum to prove they want to satay :)
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jul 11, 2018 6:37 pm

As far as the EU council goes, it's a simple as, 'The United Kingdom hereby notifies the European Council that it withdraws it's intention to leave the EU under Article 50(2)' at any point before the negotiation period expires. No votes required, no consent from the EU needed, the member state has the right to remain should it wish. The 27 cannot force a member state out.

Whole different can of worms domestically, as the various acts of parliament and royal assent would need to be undone/resolved accordingly.

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