caliboy93
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Republicans winning the midterms?

Sun Nov 04, 2018 7:51 am

So we know the experts and polls state that Democrats can win the House while the GOP keeps the Senate. But what if the GOP also takes the house in another poll-defying election? What are your predictions for domestic policy, foreign policy, and the state of the nation in general?
 
Scorpio
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Sun Nov 04, 2018 8:36 am

Here's a prediction: if the Democrats win the House, Trump will blame the media, and / or massive voter fraud. It'll be anyone's fault but his.
 
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moo
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Sun Nov 04, 2018 9:21 am

caliboy93 wrote:
So we know the experts and polls state that Democrats can win the House while the GOP keeps the Senate. But what if the GOP also takes the house in another poll-defying election? What are your predictions for domestic policy, foreign policy, and the state of the nation in general?


Considering the struggles that the GOP seem to have pushing some legislation through when they currently control the House, Senate and the White House, I'd say that the future holds more of the same hilarity if they continue to hold all three...

Of course, Trump will still continue to blame the Democrats for failing to pass legislation, nothing will change there.

Long term if Trumps White House continues with its plans? A bankrupt USA that is a laughing stock in on the world stage.
 
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flyingsikh
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Sun Nov 04, 2018 12:07 pm

If folks decide to sit at home and not vote. Or vote based off of information gathered from Facebook memes....they deserve the guy that couldn’t even make money on a casino to lead them.
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MassAppeal
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Sun Nov 04, 2018 5:04 pm

flyingsikh wrote:
If folks decide to sit at home and not vote. Or vote based off of information gathered from Facebook memes....they deserve the guy that couldn’t even make money on a casino to lead them.


The only people sitting at home not voting are young people. If they voted they'd determine every single outcome regardless of what baby boomers wanted. But they're too lazy to take an hour out of their day every 2 years to do anything about it.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Sun Nov 04, 2018 6:14 pm

caliboy93 wrote:
So we know the experts and polls state that Democrats can win the House while the GOP keeps the Senate. But what if the GOP also takes the house in another poll-defying election? What are your predictions for domestic policy, foreign policy, and the state of the nation in general?

It depends on how much of a majority they retain. Keeping the House by 1-2 seats may be a check on GOP (especially if some seats were won by razor thin margins), as opposed to keeping it with 10 seats. The Senate looks like it could either be a net gain of 1-2 seats or even no change, which means that unless the McConnell decides to get rid of the filibuster altogether, he'd also be threading a needle.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Sun Nov 04, 2018 10:16 pm

A bankrupt USA that is a laughing stock in on the world stage.


You might at least acknowledge the last Democratic President raised taxes AND doubled the debt. So, becoming a laughing stock is a bipartisan effort.

Also, acknowledging that entitlement programs aren’t fully funded and never were or will be this demanding their closing.

GF
 
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DL717
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Sun Nov 04, 2018 10:29 pm

I will laugh my *** off.
Everything is chits and giggles until you get old enough to giggle and then you chit.
 
AA747123
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Sun Nov 04, 2018 11:20 pm

There is no way the dems will win anything. All early polls show the republicans with significant leads in all areas. Remember, Obummer was such a disaster of a president the American people will never forget, the Republicans will hold the White House, House, and Senate for decades to come.
 
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lugie
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:31 am

I love to read arrogant predictions by Republicans already expecting all polls to be off and the GOP not just retaining the House but expanding their majority there.

Of course, that is possible. It has been proven to us in 2016 twice (Brexit and Trump) but even then, people fail to understand statistical prediction models. Nobody ever said that Hillary was going to win in a landslide, in fact, the week before election day 538 predicted a 3 in 10 chance Trump would win the presidency. And on top of that, the polls predicting that Hillary would win the vote by anywhere between 1 and 5 percentage points were spot on - only the spread of these votes over certain states were not.

Now, the current prediction model says that there is a 6 in 7 (85%) chance Democrats will take the House versus a 1 in 7 (15%) chance the GOP retains their majority.
Can they win it? Yes absolutely, 1 in 7 isn't out of this world but most likely they won't.

That in mind, our dear Republicans who lean so solidly on these 15% (half the odds Trump had) should know that there is an equally big 1 in 7 chance that Democrats take control of the Senate, while the odds of the GOP retaining their majority there is 6 in 7 - pretty much symmetrical. Might not want to dismiss that if you're so confident about the fact that 6 times higher is probably just "bad polling".
After all, polls could be way off in the other direction and the Democrats flip the Senate too.


My prediction? I believe in the majority, so probably the Democrats will take control of the House, restoring some much-needed balancing weight in the legislative branch but Republicans will most likely stay in control of Congress. Worst case they might even flip another seat or two making it harder for Democrats to take another shot at the Senate in 2020 (when the map will be considerably more favorable for them).

My hopes? That there is a prediction error on the issue of young voter turnout that could help the Democrats in the Senate. Some data seems to indicate that, for example in Texas, Georgia or Tennessee where the percentage of under-30 voters who cast their ballot through early voting is way higher than in 2014 (500% plus in TX and GA, 700% plus in TN). Millenials are among the most consistently liberal demographics and if they got their act together and turned out, they could really shape an outcome.
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Ken777
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:13 am

AA747123 wrote:
There is no way the dems will win anything. All early polls show the republicans with significant leads in all areas. Remember, Obummer was such a disaster of a president the American people will never forget, the Republicans will hold the White House, House, and Senate for decades to come.


Another conservative who hates black folks - especially if they'd win a Presidential Election. Personally I think you need to take a hard look at that Bikini Graph and trace growth since then - up until today. Same with the DOW. Swamp Mouth is simply riding Obama's economic wave.

If the GOP does have RED WAVE, especially in the House, then we will see $1.5 Trillion cut from Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. Swamp Mouth does not care if we turn into the Calcutta level poverty as long as his Billionaire's Boy's Club keeps growing their wealth.

After another 2 years of The Gropper you might be ready to dump your racist thinking and get someone who gives a crap about you. Or are you in the Billionaire's Boy's Club?
 
Pyrex
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:14 am

caliboy93 wrote:
But what if the GOP also takes the house in another poll-defying election? What are your predictions for domestic policy, foreign policy, and the state of the nation in general?


It will really depend on how the Democrats take it. Since 2016 they have decided to go full retard and pander to their "Resist" base of support, to the point where Bernie Sanders sometimes acts as their voice of reason in the Senate. If they double down on that, and keep Schumer and Pelosi in power, then Trump would be almost a shoe-in in 2020 (and if he gets tired of playing President, Nikki Haley would mop the floor with anyone, Republican or Democrat). If instead of that they come to their senses and elect someone into leadership positions that is finally willing to admit they lost in 2016 fair and square (despite theirs / the FBIs best efforts to the contrary) and works collaboratively to advance the country instead of their personal agendas, they may have a shot at regaining some sort of power in 2020.
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:26 am

Here's Michael Avenatti's 2018 Get Out The Vote ad. I feel confident that the R's will come out and Vote the House and Senate into 2019 Republican Majorities.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NVQTj75sxT0
Smoothest Ride so far ~ AA A300B4-600R ~~ Favorite Aviation Author ~ Robert J. Serling
 
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WarRI1
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:49 am

DIRECTFLT wrote:
Here's Michael Avenatti's 2018 Get Out The Vote ad. I feel confident that the R's will come out and Vote the House and Senate into 2019 Republican Majorities.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NVQTj75sxT0



We will know shortly, I would not commit myself to any guess's myself. In this wacky time, who can tell. I do not like to eat Crow.
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GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:40 am

If the GOP does have RED WAVE, especially in the House, then we will see $1.5 Trillion cut from Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. Swamp Mouth does not care if we turn into the Calcutta level poverty as long as his Billionaire's Boy's Club keeps growing their wealth.


WHAT? I thought it was all about the deficit and debt. I guess it’s about continuing the deficits and rising debt. Or is it about tax increases? I’m confused by your posts.

GF
 
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WarRI1
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:46 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
If the GOP does have RED WAVE, especially in the House, then we will see $1.5 Trillion cut from Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. Swamp Mouth does not care if we turn into the Calcutta level poverty as long as his Billionaire's Boy's Club keeps growing their wealth.


WHAT? I thought it was all about the deficit and debt. I guess it’s about continuing the deficits and rising debt. Or is it about tax increases? I’m confused by your posts.

GF


How about all of the above?
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GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:14 am

Yup, good progressive plan, raise taxes, increase the debt! Instead of Make America a Great Again, try Make America Venezuela Next.

GF
 
Ken777
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:32 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Yup, good progressive plan, raise taxes, increase the debt! Instead of Make America a Great Again, try Make America Venezuela Next.

GF


Compared to Trump? Increase the debt $1.5 Trillion (that's with a "T"). Cut $1.5 Trillion (that's with a "T") out of Social Security, MEdicare and Medicaid. Keep the Billionaires Boy's Club getting richer each year - funded by cuts to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. Now that sounds like Venezuela.

And let's not forget the $200 Million or so for the military at the border instead of in their training and family cycles. Impressive, especially the sight of those Army Guys protecting us from all of those women, children, toddlers and babies. How many guns does Swamp Mouth need to protect us? 15,000? Really?
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:36 am

It will definitely be interesting to see how it all pans out... We seem to be in uncharted territory.

Will turnout be larger? Historic? Disappointing?

Have the pollsters accurately included the 2016 Trump voters that they underestimated last election? That's assuming they'll vote similarly

Does it matter that Hillary isn't on the ballot? That Trump isn't? Or is he, indirectly?

Will we see even less split ticket voters, even among independents?

I think anyone that is pretty confident about the results will either be disappointed in a few days or will be very lucky
 
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WarRI1
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:41 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Yup, good progressive plan, raise taxes, increase the debt! Instead of Make America a Great Again, try Make America Venezuela Next.

GF


Bullshit, as John McCain's daughter said so eloquently at his funeral, we do not need anyone to make America great again, we always have been.
It is better to die on your feet, than live on your knees.
 
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WarRI1
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:45 am

DeltaMD90 wrote:
It will definitely be interesting to see how it all pans out... We seem to be in uncharted territory.

Will turnout be larger? Historic? Disappointing?

Have the pollsters accurately included the 2016 Trump voters that they underestimated last election? That's assuming they'll vote similarly

Does it matter that Hillary isn't on the ballot? That Trump isn't? Or is he, indirectly?

Will we see even less split ticket voters, even among independents?

I think anyone that is pretty confident about the results will either be disappointed in a few days or will be very lucky




I agree completely, we know we have a very restive and disturbed electorate and it will be a very interesting election.
It is better to die on your feet, than live on your knees.
 
johnboy
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:01 am

AA747123 wrote:
There is no way the dems will win anything. All early polls show the republicans with significant leads in all areas. Remember, Obummer was such a disaster of a president the American people will never forget, the Republicans will hold the White House, House, and Senate for decades to come.



Honestly, even Svetlana from Minsk could do better than this after her 4th vodka break.
 
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:46 am

DeltaMD90 wrote:
It will definitely be interesting to see how it all pans out... We seem to be in uncharted territory.

Will turnout be larger? Historic? Disappointing?

Have the pollsters accurately included the 2016 Trump voters that they underestimated last election? That's assuming they'll vote similarly

Does it matter that Hillary isn't on the ballot? That Trump isn't? Or is he, indirectly?

Will we see even less split ticket voters, even among independents?

I think anyone that is pretty confident about the results will either be disappointed in a few days or will be very lucky


Election Day Weather Forecast

https://weather.com/forecast/national/n ... r-forecast

Which side is more willing to wait in long lines in bad weather? We shall see.
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johnboy
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:11 am

DIRECTFLT wrote:

Election Day Weather Forecast

https://weather.com/forecast/national/n ... r-forecast

Which side is more willing to wait in long lines in bad weather? We shall see.


Per the link:

“A pair of recent studies found weather on Election Day not only impacts turnout, but can also influence who voters choose once at the polls.

Wonder why?

PS: I’m back. :-D
 
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Mon Nov 05, 2018 7:44 pm

Here's Brad Pitt and Leonardo DiCraprio with their Get Out The Vote ad. It's really inspirational. Makes me want to Vote (Republican) again! Check out the YouTube comments while you're there... :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a-xatBiT2IQ
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GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:54 pm

Pretty much everything you could want in a monthly jobs report. Payroll gains way better than expected, nice pop in labor force participation, wage growth continues to strengthen, finally beating inflation (real gains!). Score 1 for "room-to-run" crowd!


That’s what Joe Biden’s former economic advisor had to say Friday on Twitter.

GF
 
AA747123
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:11 am

Early voting results from Fox News are almost 3 republican voters to every 1 democrat. A huge red wave is coming tomorrow!
 
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Tugger
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:16 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Pretty much everything you could want in a monthly jobs report. Payroll gains way better than expected, nice pop in labor force participation, wage growth continues to strengthen, finally beating inflation (real gains!). Score 1 for "room-to-run" crowd!


That’s what Joe Biden’s former economic advisor had to say Friday on Twitter.

Of course. So you are saying that a dem is telling the truth? OK....

Of course now with Trump and his moronic "lets cut taxes and increase spending" concept, the U.S. debt has exceeded $21 trillion. Not gone down. But hey, cutting expenses isn't important to him or the MAGA's. Yet as a head of household I actually understand that you do not decrease income while trying to pay down excessive debt. You get extra an influx of income if you can.

Tugg
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NoTime
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:38 am

I predict a swing back towards the left, at least in the House and in governor's mansions across the country. It's kind of the natural cycle of things.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:52 am

Tugger wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Pretty much everything you could want in a monthly jobs report. Payroll gains way better than expected, nice pop in labor force participation, wage growth continues to strengthen, finally beating inflation (real gains!). Score 1 for "room-to-run" crowd!


That’s what Joe Biden’s former economic advisor had to say Friday on Twitter.

Of course. So you are saying that a dem is telling the truth? OK....

Of course now with Trump and his moronic "lets cut taxes and increase spending" concept, the U.S. debt has exceeded $21 trillion. Not gone down. But hey, cutting expenses isn't important to him or the MAGA's. Yet as a head of household I actually understand that you do not decrease income while trying to pay down excessive debt. You get extra an influx of income if you can.

Tugg


Well, the debt got from $10 billion to $20 billion under Obama, so Trump’s on schedule then. I agree that speeding needs to go way down, but who’s gonna tell the Social Security receipants (read: middle class) that they’ll lose? It’s entitlements that killing the budget. Eliminate DOD and much of the discretionary spending and you will only temporarily close the deficit.

The math’s pretty simple 126 million households earned about $61,000 each in 2018, a record high. Tax each another $4,500 per year. Problem solved. And that’s about how they do it in many developed countries, like the EU, UK, Australia via their VAT or GST taxes. Very regressive, too.

GF
 
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EstherLouise
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:19 am

I predict that, in 24 hours, Trump will be taking a shot of Dilaudid in the ass and 10 mg of Haldol to sleep. Then, he'll end up drooling in his pillow and peeing the bed.
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Francoflier
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:50 am

EstherLouise wrote:
I predict that, in 24 hours, Trump will be taking a shot of Dilaudid in the ass and 10 mg of Haldol to sleep. Then, he'll end up drooling in his pillow and peeing the bed.


Isn't that his daily routine?
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DLFREEBIRD
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:53 am

Pyrex wrote:
caliboy93 wrote:
But what if the GOP also takes the house in another poll-defying election? What are your predictions for domestic policy, foreign policy, and the state of the nation in general?


It will really depend on how the Democrats take it. Since 2016 they have decided to go full retard and pander to their "Resist" base of support, to the point where Bernie Sanders sometimes acts as their voice of reason in the Senate. If they double down on that, and keep Schumer and Pelosi in power, then Trump would be almost a shoe-in in 2020 (and if he gets tired of playing President, Nikki Haley would mop the floor with anyone, Republican or Democrat). If instead of that they come to their senses and elect someone into leadership positions that is finally willing to admit they lost in 2016 fair and square (despite theirs / the FBIs best efforts to the contrary) and works collaboratively to advance the country instead of their personal agendas, they may have a shot at regaining some sort of power in 2020.


Nikki Haley would mop the floor ? what a chauvinistic comment,
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:08 am

AA747123 wrote:
Early voting results from Fox News are almost 3 republican voters to every 1 democrat. A huge red wave is coming tomorrow!


Good news. You can stay home, then.
-Doc Lightning-

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Pyrex
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:24 pm

DLFREEBIRD wrote:
Pyrex wrote:
caliboy93 wrote:
But what if the GOP also takes the house in another poll-defying election? What are your predictions for domestic policy, foreign policy, and the state of the nation in general?


It will really depend on how the Democrats take it. Since 2016 they have decided to go full retard and pander to their "Resist" base of support, to the point where Bernie Sanders sometimes acts as their voice of reason in the Senate. If they double down on that, and keep Schumer and Pelosi in power, then Trump would be almost a shoe-in in 2020 (and if he gets tired of playing President, Nikki Haley would mop the floor with anyone, Republican or Democrat). If instead of that they come to their senses and elect someone into leadership positions that is finally willing to admit they lost in 2016 fair and square (despite theirs / the FBIs best efforts to the contrary) and works collaboratively to advance the country instead of their personal agendas, they may have a shot at regaining some sort of power in 2020.


Nikki Haley would mop the floor ? what a chauvinistic comment,


Saying a candidate would mop the floor with anyone (i.e., win in a landslide) is chauvinistic? Are you serious? Are you that unaware of common english phrases or are you so paranoid that you check under your bed at night for Nazis? I know that for people like you getting offended is a sport, but seriously, get a grip.
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DL717
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:27 pm

DocLightning wrote:
AA747123 wrote:
Early voting results from Fox News are almost 3 republican voters to every 1 democrat. A huge red wave is coming tomorrow!


Good news. You can stay home, then.


Not a chance.
Everything is chits and giggles until you get old enough to giggle and then you chit.
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:54 pm

Pyrex wrote:
DLFREEBIRD wrote:
Pyrex wrote:

It will really depend on how the Democrats take it. Since 2016 they have decided to go full retard and pander to their "Resist" base of support, to the point where Bernie Sanders sometimes acts as their voice of reason in the Senate. If they double down on that, and keep Schumer and Pelosi in power, then Trump would be almost a shoe-in in 2020 (and if he gets tired of playing President, Nikki Haley would mop the floor with anyone, Republican or Democrat). If instead of that they come to their senses and elect someone into leadership positions that is finally willing to admit they lost in 2016 fair and square (despite theirs / the FBIs best efforts to the contrary) and works collaboratively to advance the country instead of their personal agendas, they may have a shot at regaining some sort of power in 2020.


Nikki Haley would mop the floor ? what a chauvinistic comment,


Saying a candidate would mop the floor with anyone (i.e., win in a landslide) is chauvinistic? Are you serious? Are you that unaware of common english phrases or are you so paranoid that you check under your bed at night for Nazis? I know that for people like you getting offended is a sport, but seriously, get a grip.


Its kind of funny, the first time I read your comment Pyrex I didn't even see the "mop the floor" comment as having anything to do with gender. I just don't associate a chore like mopping the floor with gender because in my house everyone helps clean.

I actually do the dishes every night because I hate how my wife loads the dishwasher. It's sooo wrong. She even puts pots in the dishwasher. I mean WHO DOES THAT. Ugh. I cringe just thinking about it. So yeah, I do the dishes and I'm proud of that.
 
DLFREEBIRD
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:04 pm

Pyrex wrote:
DLFREEBIRD wrote:
Pyrex wrote:

It will really depend on how the Democrats take it. Since 2016 they have decided to go full retard and pander to their "Resist" base of support, to the point where Bernie Sanders sometimes acts as their voice of reason in the Senate. If they double down on that, and keep Schumer and Pelosi in power, then Trump would be almost a shoe-in in 2020 (and if he gets tired of playing President, Nikki Haley would mop the floor with anyone, Republican or Democrat). If instead of that they come to their senses and elect someone into leadership positions that is finally willing to admit they lost in 2016 fair and square (despite theirs / the FBIs best efforts to the contrary) and works collaboratively to advance the country instead of their personal agendas, they may have a shot at regaining some sort of power in 2020.


Nikki Haley would mop the floor ? what a chauvinistic comment,


Saying a candidate would mop the floor with anyone (i.e., win in a landslide) is chauvinistic? Are you serious? Are you that unaware of common english phrases or are you so paranoid that you check under your bed at night for Nazis? I know that for people like you getting offended is a sport, but seriously, get a grip.


i was joking, don't take things so seriously.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:31 pm

johnboy wrote:
AA747123 wrote:
There is no way the dems will win anything. All early polls show the republicans with significant leads in all areas. Remember, Obummer was such a disaster of a president the American people will never forget, the Republicans will hold the White House, House, and Senate for decades to come.



Honestly, even Svetlana from Minsk could do better than this after her 4th vodka break.

After reading several posts I am convinced we have some Russian trolls here on board. It seems that they are just playing the role of a patriotic US-American. But the words are so exaggerated ... I cannot believe they come from true US-Americans...
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:49 pm

lugie wrote:
My hopes? That there is a prediction error on the issue of young voter turnout that could help the Democrats in the Senate. Some data seems to indicate that, for example in Texas, Georgia or Tennessee where the percentage of under-30 voters who cast their ballot through early voting is way higher than in 2014 (500% plus in TX and GA, 700% plus in TN). Millenials are among the most consistently liberal demographics and if they got their act together and turned out, they could really shape an outcome.


And surprising in TX and GA? Nope. TX got a rockstar-like candidate (Beto) and GA got somebody that younger voters are excited about (Abrams). Hope the same applied in FL, i.e. Gillum able to get enough younger voters out there to push Nelson above that corrupt Rick Scott.

lugie wrote:
Of course, that is possible. It has been proven to us in 2016 twice (Brexit and Trump) but even then, people fail to understand statistical prediction models. Nobody ever said that Hillary was going to win in a landslide, in fact, the week before election day 538 predicted a 3 in 10 chance Trump would win the presidency. And on top of that, the polls predicting that Hillary would win the vote by anywhere between 1 and 5 percentage points were spot on - only the spread of these votes over certain states were not.


Not necessarily. Brexit was always a toss-up. As for Drumpf - he technically "win" by 70k votes (10704 in MI, 44292 in PA, 22748 in WI; hand those 46 EVs to Hillary and it'll be Hillary 278-Drumpf 260), which is far from a "landslide" that Drumpf supporters claim it is (Plus the poll is correct in terms of Popular vote - i.e. Hillary getting about 2-3% more votes than Drumpf). Midwestern states (Outside of strong-blue IL and red-leaning IN) + Florida are going to stay the key to win presidential elections for awhile.

P.S. I'll just ignored AA747123. But then, with rubles not gaining much values, the trolls in Moskva Centre of Propaganda are getting lower in quality :scratchchin:
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:12 pm

 
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Aesma
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 5:47 pm

I keep hearing French journalists and pollsters saying US pollsters do it wrong. I can't comment on this as I took statistics for one semester and found it more confusing than anything. Here in France pollsters use "quotas".

In the US they use random samples if I understand it correctly, but they're not random after all, or something like that.
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Pyrex
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:04 pm

DLFREEBIRD wrote:
Pyrex wrote:
DLFREEBIRD wrote:

Nikki Haley would mop the floor ? what a chauvinistic comment,


Saying a candidate would mop the floor with anyone (i.e., win in a landslide) is chauvinistic? Are you serious? Are you that unaware of common english phrases or are you so paranoid that you check under your bed at night for Nazis? I know that for people like you getting offended is a sport, but seriously, get a grip.


i was joking, don't take things so seriously.


SJW types have gone so nuts lately it is getting increasingly difficult to distinguish satire from what they actually think. Would not be surprised at all if there are some that actually think like that.
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trpmb6
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:06 pm

Aesma wrote:
I keep hearing French journalists and pollsters saying US pollsters do it wrong. I can't comment on this as I took statistics for one semester and found it more confusing than anything. Here in France pollsters use "quotas".

In the US they use random samples if I understand it correctly, but they're not random after all, or something like that.


Depends on the pollster, but in a very general sense; they poll a random sampling of people and then they apply weighting factors to that sampling based on demographics (when available). Then they also will add in factors for enthusiasm etc.

They could poll 1000 people in an area that has 100000 people with 20% black 80% white, 65% republican 45% democrat. But those 1000 people might be 90% white and 10% black so the first factor would be to weight the poll based on who white people may generally vote for and who black people may generally vote for. Then if 75% of respondants reported being republican you'd weight that down as well. Then you might factor in enthusiasm for one demographic or one political lean. Please note, I'm just making numbers up here. And obviously these factors are all interrelated. They also base things off previous elections in each geographical region.

Pollsters can be caught off guard though. For instance, in south East ohio, 2012, went roughly 60% for Barack Obama. Pollsters saw this region as safely blue for the 2016 election, or at least, reasonably safe. It went 60% Trump in the 2016 election. Huge change.

If you sample enough people and canvas the right areas, you can get a pretty good feel for election specifics. But at the end of the day, you can't poll every single person. You might miss somewhere. And in today's age where cell phones are so prevalent, it makes it hard for an industry that was once so reliant on landline phones.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:21 pm

Aesma wrote:
In the US they use random samples if I understand it correctly, but they're not random after all, or something like that.


It's a mixed of different models (i.e. "likely voters" vs. "register voters", random sampling, weighting of demographics using past election tendencies, etc.). The "past tendencies" is also one of the reason why the polls were off during 2016, at least on a state-level - i.e. "union-type" (or "blue-collar"), who were fairly reliable Democrat voters, mostly voted for Drumpf. Pollsters also treated a fair amount of state as "safe blue" (Cough...Michigan...cough) and barely poll there. The wrong model also mean that they were way off in places like Ohio (Poll suggested about 2% advantage for Drumpf, Drumpf won Ohio by 8%).

There were other issues also, i.e. landline vs. cell (At least up until recently, polls tend to just call landlines only, but since nobody has landlines nowaday...), making the "random" samples not so random.
 
apodino
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:08 pm

I just went out and voted and I got to thinking to myself driving home...I don't really think it will be much different if the Dems take the House than it is now, or if the Republicans held on to the house. For one thing, even in the Minority, Nancy Pelosi had considerable influence into the CRs that passed, and regardless if she is speaker or Minority Leader anything getting done will have to go through her. Mitch McConnel isn't going to cave to the demands of the freedom caucus in the house, and given the makeup of the Senate..if he did nothing would get passed anyways. Secondly, even though most on the Right want Jim Jordan to become Speaker of the House, it is far more likely that Kevin McCarthy becomes speaker and since he represents California...it will be pretty much status quo. The one thing that would change is because Democrats now gain control of the committees, you will see investigations into the administration. I am not convinced this is a bad thing, because it does serve as a check on the Executive branch, and unfortunately too many parties just rubber stamp anything the coming from the administration so there is no way to hold the white house in check. It happened with Obama, it happened with Bush, and it is happening now with Trump.

One last thing I will say to the readers. Do not ignore the down ballot races. These races are very important and make sure you do your due diligance on these races too. I live in Texas and three down ballot races are for offices that wield considerable power here. The Texas Railroad Comissioner overseas the oil industry here, the Agricultral Commissioner oversees the food supply, and the Land commissioner has control over certain property rights here. While I wont reveal my votes on here...I will say that I did not vote straight party, and I voted for a lot of Democrats as well as Republicans.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:41 pm

Polls are done via internet here. Any kind of ethnic statistics are illegal, we don't register as voting for such or such party (wouldn't work anyway as there are dozen of parties, and they often break up, new ones are born, etc.), yet polls are quite reliable.

What is strange in this election is that even if the GOP keeps control, it has no platform, the only platform is Trump, and Trump says/does one thing one day and the opposite the next. Cue the "very harsh" sanctions against Iran that let most of Iran's customers continue to buy its oil.
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trpmb6
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:45 pm

Aesma wrote:
What is strange in this election is that even if the GOP keeps control, it has no platform, the only platform is Trump, and Trump says/does one thing one day and the opposite the next. Cue the "very harsh" sanctions against Iran that let most of Iran's customers continue to buy its oil.


Could say the same for the Democrats. Only platform is to obstruct Trump.

(I say this tongue in cheek because I of course know that both sides have platforms they're advocating for)
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:30 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
What is strange in this election is that even if the GOP keeps control, it has no platform, the only platform is Trump, and Trump says/does one thing one day and the opposite the next. Cue the "very harsh" sanctions against Iran that let most of Iran's customers continue to buy its oil.


Could say the same for the Democrats. Only platform is to obstruct Trump.

(I say this tongue in cheek because I of course know that both sides have platforms they're advocating for)


What do you mean, Democrats has a socialist agenda, an agenda to destroy US and trash its constitution, open borders, and...umm...what else did I miss :duck:

(Maybe I need to watch more Faux News for once just to understand the Democrat "platform") :scratchchin: :scratchchin:
 
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DL717
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Re: Republicans winning the midterms?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:40 am

So blue wave becomes high tide. LOL.

You know it’s a disappointment on election night when there isn’t an a.net election thread with 50 pages of mud throwing.
Last edited by DL717 on Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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