co/ba
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Are All The Majors Going To Survive?

Fri Sep 14, 2001 11:19 am

Do you think AA UA will survive all of the negative publicity due to the attack? How will this affect CO, NW, US, and the other majors? What about the low-fares and aviation in the U.S./the rest of the world? This is a huge blow to aviation but who will survive?
 
Guest

RE: Are All The Majors Going To Survive?

Fri Sep 14, 2001 11:22 am

It was poor airport security, not the airlines that let these planes be hijaked
 
jmc1975
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RE: Are All The Majors Going To Survive?

Fri Sep 14, 2001 11:24 am

I hope you will no longer see any more $5/hour monkeys who can't read and write standing around the x-ray machines pretending to be professional security personnel.
.......
 
vulindlela744
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RE: Are All The Majors Going To Survive?

Fri Sep 14, 2001 11:39 am

Halleluhuh!!!!!! I totally agree!!!! We need real professional now with real concern over passenger safety. Not some woman checking to see if her manicure was done good or not
 
coboeing777
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RE: Are All The Majors Going To Survive?

Fri Sep 14, 2001 11:56 am

couldnt have said it better myself Vul. I see you've been to EWR quite a few times huh
 
MCOtoATL
Posts: 448
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The Minor Players Are In More Trouble

Fri Sep 14, 2001 12:18 pm

It will be interesting to see what happens. In my opinion, which is often far from correct, here is what I see:

* obviously, the airlines racked up huge losses over the past few days when flights were grounded. In addition, many of them are paying for the lodging of their stranded passengers.

* any sort of conflict pertaining to the middle east will most likely see an increase in the price of fuel, and that really affects the bottom line of airlines.

* the airlines were slashing fares prior to Tuesday so that they could attract more flyers. The slowling economy was taking its toll on the airlines.

* there may a bit of trepidation on the part of flyers, at least for a while, and especially for leisure travels.

All of these add up to huge losses for the airlines. To make matters worse, while many airlines face hemmoraging bottom lines, they may have to lower fares to attract passengers, thus taking a "double whammy."

But the airlines that are hurt the most are the ones who have smaller amounts of cash reserves. Airtran comes to mind, and it would be a shame to see profitable airlines unable to overcome some tough (and out-of-their-control) circumstances.

I think the majors will be fine for now. But sadly, smaller carriers may face tougher times. I hope I am wrong about the latter.
 
doug_or
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RE: Are All The Majors Going To Survive?

Fri Sep 14, 2001 12:21 pm

what about the strugglers- USair? AmWest?
When in doubt, one B pump off
 
AgnusBymaster
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RE: Are All The Majors Going To Survive?

Fri Sep 14, 2001 2:00 pm

The only carriers I am confident about are Southwest, Continental and Delta. Northwest will probably make it. UA and AA will probably pull through, but not without significant cutbacks. I think the future looks bleak for USAirways, and bleaker still for America West.
 
padcrasher
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RE: Are All The Majors Going To Survive?

Fri Sep 14, 2001 2:16 pm

You're all way off base.

These hijackers had valid IDs, reservations in thier own names, no metal knives, nor guns. It will turn out that everyone at the security check point did everything that they were asked to do.

What happened was a failure of the airline's security measures.

1) Pilot's venturing out into the cabin.

And/Or

2) Flimsy cockpit doors.

Now, this type of attack has never happened before, so I want to make clear I do not blame airlines for not having these measures in place. But, it is time for a change in In flight security measures.



 
SouthRebels
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RE: Are All The Majors Going To Survive?

Fri Sep 14, 2001 2:28 pm

"I hope you will no longer see any more $5/hour monkeys who can't read and write standing around the x-ray machines pretending to be professional security personnel."

Your racist connotations aren't needed nor are they appreciated. And please, don't reply trying to justify or remedy your post. You said it, you know what you were saying and so does everybody else. I understand what you are saying, aiport security "guards" suck and we all know most aiport personel are black. Don't bring racism into this. It's wrong and you know it. Grow up.
 
Ryefly
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RE: Are All The Majors Going To Survive?

Fri Sep 14, 2001 2:29 pm

I'm sorry to think this but I fear AA and UA will have major trouble recovering from all of this. They are so huge now so they might survive all of this which I really hope for them but it will be a struggle. If you look at past airlines which suffered major disasters many are no longer flying today. That's scary to think. Pan Am, TWA, Air Florida, are just some I can think off the top of my head that went out of business after highly publicized crashes.
 
padcrasher
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RE: Are All The Majors Going To Survive?

Fri Sep 14, 2001 2:32 pm

Uh, South Reb

I read the post and while I thought it was kinda mean it did not occur to me that it was racist. You may be jumping to conclusions here.
 
jmc1975
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RE: SouthRebels

Fri Sep 14, 2001 2:52 pm

Ummm,
By looking at your age, I can see how you could jump to such a senseless and defensive conclusion. Face it, we are in some serious times here and there is no room for petty accusations or political correctness.
.......
 
Cathay Pacific
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RE: Are All The Majors Going To Survive?

Fri Sep 14, 2001 3:11 pm

just wondering, what was the finacial situation for TWA and Pan Am before their major accident????

cathay pacific, now you're really flying
 
Guest

RE: Are All The Majors Going To Survive?

Fri Sep 14, 2001 3:16 pm

If the times are so serious, than let's get serious, JMC1975. Your post was seriously wrong, for the hurtful slam you made at the many minimum wagers who are just doing their job. It is not their fault that the security system is marginal by design, and it is clearly not right for you or anyone to label them as $5/hr monkeys.

On the racism issue, I fly mostly on the West Coast where most of these security agents are Hispanic or Asian. I didn't see this quite the same as Southrebels, but I can agree that given the tendency for non-whites to hold these jobs, there is an implied racism.

Whether Black or Asian or poor-white-trash (like myself), it takes a far poorer person to label these workers as $5/hr monkeys. If some of you don't understand this point, take your mom out to lunch and let her see the child she tried to raise. She'll help you to see the shame you should feel...
 
Guest

RE: Are All The Majors Going To Survive?

Fri Sep 14, 2001 3:52 pm

Why does every one always assume HP is struggling. We really are not, are losses are not that bad, the cash reserve is good, management is pretty good now. I beleive we will survive, we are in a lot better shape then US.

We had a pretty good day at least in SAN, quite a few people buying last minute exspensive one way tickets as we were 1 of only 2 airlines flying out of SAN today. DL was the other.
 
jmc1975
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RE: Lsjef

Fri Sep 14, 2001 4:11 pm

I'm sorry you feel that way. It's not advisable to make judgements on things you know nothing about.
.......
 
jmc1975
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RE: AWA22

Fri Sep 14, 2001 4:24 pm

AWA22-
I agree with you. I honestly believe that America West is in just as good if not even better position than most airlines (especially UA and AA) due to its route structure and cost structure. In these times, I believe all airlines are now on a level playing field and America West really has the opportunity to shine and put its troubled past behind it.
.......
 
Delta_Fan
Posts: 121
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RE: Are All The Majors Going To Survive?

Fri Sep 14, 2001 11:04 pm

I think DL will emerge as the new airline gigant and without taking the tragic events of our minds , probably DL will take advantage from AA and UA in this situation.
 
SouthRebels
Posts: 166
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RE: Are All The Majors Going To Survive?

Sat Sep 15, 2001 3:29 am

Jmc - Why can't you just be quiet instead of defending what you said. It a sign of your ignorance. As for my age, I think that helps me realize more than you think. Our generation hasn't seen the likes of this ever before, not is our generation a generally racist group. What our generation has learned in the way of hating people comes mainly from our parents and grandparents. Generations like which you come from. Comments like you make start this shit and only add stress that isn't needed at any time, let alone this time. Just go back and read what you said and think about it. If you can honestly come back here and tell me there were no racist implications you are only lying to yourself, because everyone else can see it, to some extent or another.
 
milemaster
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RE: Are All The Majors Going To Survive?

Sat Sep 15, 2001 3:43 am

Enough!

I am so tired of everyone walking around with racism scanners on. He used the term "Monkeys"... So what?
Doesn't mean his comment was racist.

I went through this on planebusiness.com a while back when I made a comment as to the fact that the only inflight magazines available on my last few flights were Ebony magazine. Instead of people reading for what I was saying, they decided I was being a racist for mentioning it.

I then responded by suggesting that if I had complained about only being golf digest on my flights instead, should expect a verbal assult by a bunch of golfers?

Rediculous.

Let's focus on the topic at hand, not dig up more hate.

Geez....
 
chepos
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RE: Are All The Majors Going To Survive?

Sat Sep 15, 2001 3:55 am

I think the airline that will be most harmed is UAL. They were in a precarious situation (money wise) and now this , AA will also be harmed by this but they were in a better financial shape than UAL. At the same time the TWA takeover in my opinion will affect AA now, they will have to downgrade their system and they will have to retire equipment faster than olanned.
Chepos
Fly the Flag!!!!
 
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lindy field
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RE: Are All The Majors Going To Survive?

Sat Sep 15, 2001 4:18 am

I'm with Chepos on this. UAL has been hemhoraging money this year, their labor costs are high, their long-term strategy was blown by the failure of the USAirways merger, and now they face this. I don't necessarily think they'll disappear but I think they face a good chance of Chapter 11. US Airways may also face a struggle for familiar reasons. AA may be overextended with its TWA takeover. These three are on the top of my list of threatened majors. ATA, Sun Country, and certainly National also face trouble.
I see Continental and Southwest as possibly coming out in the best shape, but we'll see...
 
deltaownsall
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RE: Are All The Majors Going To Survive?

Sat Sep 15, 2001 5:08 am

I tend to think that DL will take over as THE major airline in the world. While they will obviously not be increasing their system at the moment...I would think that UAL and AA will be in large financial trouble. IF these two airlines are held accountable for the losses of the WTC...including buildings, lives, etc...I don't know what they could do. I personally do not think that they will be held accountable for all of that...but they may be held accountable for enough. I think that the government will keep them going, as they are the two largest airlines in the world...and if they went down there would be something like 180,000 employees (estimate) out of jobs. At any rate...AA is reducing operations by 20% already...and UAL is in worse shape than them...so I would expect them to decrease the same amount if not more. As DL was by far the third largest airline in the world before this tragedy...I would expect them to pick up the slack. I would be interested to see what some of you have to say on this...as I know that I may be very wrong...but please stop the racism talk. This thread was started on the topic of Are All the Majors going to survive.
DeltaOwnsAll
 
wn700driver
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RE: Are All The Majors Going To Survive?

Sat Sep 15, 2001 5:49 am

AWA22:"Why does every one always assume HP is struggling. "

Because you are always late & drive old rust buckets, thats why. Sorry, I really don't mean anything about that, but working for WN, I was oblidged to Slam. You guys a great (to all who are flying today), and keep up the good work. Have a good day all  Big grin
Base not your happiness on the deeds of others, for what is given can be taken away. No Hope = No Fear
 
YoungDon
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RE: Are All The Majors Going To Survive?

Sat Sep 15, 2001 9:05 am

SouthRebels,
Chill out. Its not that crucial.

Everyone else,

I'm sorry to say that I seriously doubt that US will survive this, especially if DCA is closed for an extended amount of time. That's a good source of business traffic and they really can't afford to lose it. UAL also might not survive, as they really can't seem to get away from red ink, and this will not help them see black. I tend to agree with the Delta boys (Delta_fan, DeltaOwnsAll) DL will probably be the largest airline in the world after this all clears up. They are in decent shape. NW also may not make it. They don't really usually lose a lot of money, but then again they don't normally make a lot either. If they survive it will be due to their excellent service and such.

CO, WN, and B6 will come out of this fine. AA, I'm not too sure what's going to happen there, but I predict that they will survive. US will only survive if UA goes under, or significantly downsizes. They will be the first to attempt to develop a new hub out west in one of UA's old stomping grounds (DEN or LAX). CO will also do the same. But really I only see these airlines surviving a few years from now.

Almost certain:
Delta
Continental
JetBlue
Southwest
Frontier
ATA
Sun Country
Alaska

Maybe, maybe not:
American
America West
Northwest

Probably not:
United
USAirways

Just my opinion. Don't flame me talking about "Northwest is not going under!!!!, Don't doubt United!" etc.  Smile

God bless those affected by Tuesday's events.


 
SouthRebels
Posts: 166
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RE: Are All The Majors Going To Survive?

Sat Sep 15, 2001 4:49 pm

Everyone -- I didn't call him racist. I said what he said had racist implications. I don't know how many of you here are currently going to school, but I'm sick of hearing other kids talk bad about the Arab or Middle Eastern kid sitting two rows over. I am not Arab or Middle Eastern, but I still think it's wrong. My only point is that I see where their views come from. People aren't born with hate or the general dislike for people of different races, they learn it and get it from the home. That's my only point, take it for what it is.
 
MDL_777
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YoungDon

Sat Sep 15, 2001 11:48 pm

Please don't take this as a flame, but maybe you didn't hear the news yesterday. The US Congress has approved $12.5 billion, (that's billion with a "b") in aid to the airlines to help recover their losses as a result of these events, and the subsequent ground stops. Now, looking at the 13 airlines you listed in your post, that's close to about a billion each. As someone else pointed out in another thread, there is no way that the US Government is going to let either of the two largest carriers in the country go under, especially as a result of this. Something for you to think about before you start to shovel dirt onto United's (or anyone else's) grave.
 
sfointern
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RE: Are All The Majors Going To Survive?

Sun Sep 16, 2001 4:06 am

You think CO is going to survive?

Well, they just laid off 12000 employes. That's about 1/5 of their workforce.

You have to remember CO's huge debt load. United has a high debt load too... but not nearly in as large proportion to revenues/company value as CO.

United has more liquidity than you think. Through all their troubles, they have not announced any layoffs. Although, I think they will break their 10+years or solid non-layoff policy very soon.

The creditors will come knocking very soon as their investments get shot to hell by this recession...
 
co/ba
Posts: 388
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RE: Are All The Majors Going To Survive?

Sun Sep 16, 2001 5:14 am

CO will survive and all employees that are laid off will come back to work as soon as we return to profitablity.
 
RJ_Delta
Posts: 1391
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RE: Are All The Majors Going To Survive?

Sun Sep 16, 2001 6:41 am

Hi:

Possibly many small airlines will not survive like Vanguard, Spirit, Air Tran, Jet Blue, DCAir, and the others. The BIGGEST Carriers like American, Delta, United Northwest and Continental will reduce their flights and cut some jobs (I think that Continental will cut 12.000 employees and reduce flights). The possible solutions is that Congrees aprove a help for the airlines specially the big carries.

RJ_Delta
 
JAL
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RE: Are All The Majors Going To Survive?

Sun Sep 16, 2001 7:36 am

The US govt. will never allow any major carrier to fail.
Work Hard But Play Harder
 
tsully
Posts: 680
Joined: Tue Mar 20, 2001 5:02 pm

RE: The Minor Players Are In More Trouble

Sun Sep 16, 2001 7:40 am

Congress will step in and keep AA/UA afloat if need be.

There is no way they will fall apart. NO way.

Long live UAL. Good luck AA.

I love America. I guess that makes me Bush's poodle, but I'd rather be a dog in New York City than a prince in Riyadh.
 
Boeingfan
Posts: 369
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RE: Are All The Majors Going To Survive?

Sun Sep 16, 2001 7:59 am

Congress will approve the 12.5 Billion for the airline industry.

Continental will have the shortest 8 hours or less furlough package ever offered. The congress will save those jobs.

If anyone did not already know, all carriers have been culling their ranks prior to Tuesday.

It is too early to talk about which airline will/will not survive, if the 12.5 Billion that WE the tax payers are paying to keep the airlines afloat, I think that puts them on good footing.

However, you are going to see the majority of those funds go to the Congressional favorites, United and American, due to their most recent tragedy.

The others will split about 3 or 4 Billion amongst themselves.

Lines of credit are wonderful thing, if the gov't gurantees the line's of credit for the carriers, then they will hang on indefinetly no matter how debt ridden.

Just my two cents...? This is not to construed as fact and is only an experienced observers opinion.
 
SFORAMPER
Posts: 109
Joined: Wed Mar 29, 2000 3:28 pm

RE: America West

Sun Sep 16, 2001 8:50 am

Now I understand why we were one of the first to start flying on Thursday, AWA22 mentioned people in SAN paying pretty high fares to get to their destinations, I personally critiziced the move but now I see the reason.
2 good things that help HP is the fact that there is almost no debt and McCain is in our corner.
 
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Bruce
Posts: 4935
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No Metal Knives On Hijackers?

Sun Sep 16, 2001 9:26 am

Someone in an above post said they had no METAL knives??????

They had box cutting knives. They used them to kill crew members.

How can a box cutter be not metal???


bruce
Bruce Leibowitz - Jackson, MS (KJAN) - Canon 50D/100-400L IS lens
 
TimMSP
Posts: 216
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2001 11:35 am

NWA Announcement

Sun Sep 16, 2001 9:51 am

I found the following announcement on NWA's website. It looks like the next several months could make or break an airline in the US.

MINNEAPOLIS (September 15, 2001) -- Northwest Airlines (NASDAQ: NWAC)announced today that it will reduce its system-wide flight schedule by 20 percent as measured on an available seat mile basis. The carrier is taking this action because of this week’s terrorist attacks on the United States and the resulting reduction in passenger demand and new airport and airline security measures.

The airline expects to begin schedule reductions immediately and have the new schedule fully implemented by October 1.

 
YoungDon
Posts: 496
Joined: Thu May 31, 2001 9:33 am

RE: NWA Announcement

Sun Sep 16, 2001 10:17 am

MDL_777,
No, not a flame at all. I do see your point with CO's high debt, but they also have a lot more cash than most of the major airlines. They lost $30M a day when their planes were not flying, and most of the 55% of the planes that they are sending out now are less than half full. And even though they are the first to announce their furloughs, don't think that just about every other carrier isn't about to do the same.

If CO is bad, UA is 3x worse. They are not the most debt-free airline in the world, and they have to deal with most of the PR problems as well. They are expected to lose nearly $2B this quarter, but since the government has given all the airlines a COMBINED $2.5B, UAL is expected to survive. The additional $12.5B is still not enough to save every airline, and I just believe UAL will be one of the first to go. I'm not attacking UA in any way, (actually one of my favorites, gotta love Channel 9) but I truly don't think that they will survive, and though the government will try to save them, I don't think they will try hard enough. The government didn't save Eastern, Braniff, Pan Am, and TWA either. (Though none of these was in the same shoes United is.) Just my .02.
 
Guest

RE: Are All The Majors Going To Survive?

Sun Sep 16, 2001 12:59 pm

I do not think this will affect Northwest at all. I do not think that I will have to worry about them.



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