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Routes, A/c If DCA Traffic Is Split IAD, Bwi?

Tue Sep 18, 2001 2:27 am

What happens to the division of DC-area air traffic if DCA is closed permanently? How do you think the airlines will reroute traffic between IAD and BWI? What kind of divisions do you see? Would certain airlines have reasons to bias one airport more than the other? How would your hometown routes play out? Figure 20 percent overall service reduction along with industry standard.

I'm figuring a roughly 55-45 split in favor of Dulles, due to acess difficulties to Dulles from east of the Potomac.

Right now, Rochester, New York has the following service to the DC area:

DCA: US, 3 daily nonstop 733
IAD: UA, 1 daily nonstop 319, 7 nonstop ACA J31-41.
BWI: US, 4 daily nonstop USX DH8

IF it's split, I foresee:

IAD: US, 2 daily 733/ 319, 1 daily USX ERJ
UA, 2 daily CRJ, 5 nonstop ACA J31-41
BWI: USX, 2 ERJ, 2 nonstop DH8.

Dominant carriers United, US Airways will both favor Dulles, but both will expand at BWI too.

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RE: Routes, A/c If DCA Traffic Is Split IAD, Bwi?

Tue Sep 18, 2001 2:50 am

Continental will shift a majority of ops to IAD but will also focus on BWI.
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RE: Routes, A/c If DCA Traffic Is Split IAD, Bwi?

Tue Sep 18, 2001 2:54 am

I would think US Airways would favor BWI, as they already have a 'hub' there.

RE: Routes, A/c If DCA Traffic Is Split IAD, Bwi?

Tue Sep 18, 2001 3:07 am

US would shift to BWI. They have plenty of gates. Metrojet would be history. UA would stick with IAD. Other carriers split the difference. BWI and IAD would get new runways. IAD is looking at 2 runway options now, would probably build both. Direct Metro links to both airports, with minimal stops. Shuttle flights might be a casualty.
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RE: Routes, A/c If DCA Traffic Is Split IAD, Bwi?

Tue Sep 18, 2001 3:36 am

I think US would buck the idea of moving to BWI. It's just too close to PHL.

US has a lot of gates on the B concourse at IAD. (I think almost as many as they have at DCA.)

And, US has shown in the past that it just isn't afraid of ACA, I mean United, at IAD.

I also think the shuttle services can survive at IAD. All throughout the time I was in college, US had hourly flights to BOS and LGA from IAD on DC9s and small 737s. Usually, they were full. Part of the time, the flights actually said "US Airways Shuttle" on their titles. if DCA is closed, I wouldn't be surprised if these planes show up at IAD again.
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RE: Routes, A/c If DCA Traffic Is Split IAD, Bwi?

Tue Sep 18, 2001 8:03 am

Will AA runs ten flights a day between Miami and Washington, and 8 go to DCA (one each to IAD and BWI). I could see AA splitting half/half between BWI and IAD. UA runs 5 daily IAD and 1 daily DCA flight from Miami. The DCA flights would probably be just dropped, IF (and that's a very big and very unlikely IF), DCA closes.
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RE: Routes, A/c If DCA Traffic Is Split IAD, Bwi?

Tue Sep 18, 2001 9:10 am

Other interesting questions arise:

Does Alaska serve SEA-IAD and go up against UA? I wouldn't be surprised to eventually see jetBlue enter this route, if the LGB and OAK service work well.

Do America West and Frontier start IAD service, or just add frequencies to BWI? My hunch is the latter...

What happens to the USExpress carriers that relied on DCA? There has already been a downsizing of the Express operation at BWI and ACA is already entrenched at IAD. Potomac is the airline that should be real concerned, as Allegheny, Piedmont, Chautauqua, and Trans States should have enough flying in other places to make up for what's lost at DCA.

I'd be surprised if National makes it through the next month, so I'm not real sure they'll be moving to IAD.

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RE: Routes, A/c If DCA Traffic Is Split IAD, Bwi?

Tue Sep 18, 2001 9:19 am

US is sitting on unused gates at BWI, aren't they? Since we're in uncharted territory here, what are the odds that US would be forced to give them up to other carriers to accomodate service from DCA?

AS does not serve SEA-IAD. If UA keeps SEA-IAD, my bet is that AS would go SEA-BWI.

F9 already serves BWI, so they may opt for IAD, or may cancel DCA/IAD service as part of their rumored service reduction.

If the small-fry carriers all flock to BWI, perhaps they can all collaborate on a 'Freeway Flyer'-type service that F9 has at DEN (although the convienience of remote check-in would be gone).
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RE: Routes, A/c If DCA Traffic Is Split IAD, Bwi?

Tue Sep 18, 2001 11:26 am

US will probably go to BWI, UA will stay at IAD, and all other carriers will just split service, except WN, they will focus on BWI, like they do already.

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