What happens to the division of DC-area air traffic if DCA is closed permanently? How do you think the airlines will reroute traffic between IAD and BWI? What kind of divisions do you see? Would certain airlines have reasons to bias one airport more than the other? How would your hometown routes play out? Figure 20 percent overall service reduction along with industry standard.
I'm figuring a roughly 55-45 split in favor of Dulles, due to acess difficulties to Dulles from east of the Potomac.
Right now, Rochester, New York has the following service to the DC area:
DCA: US, 3 daily nonstop 733
IAD: UA, 1 daily nonstop 319, 7 nonstop ACA J31-41.
BWI: US, 4 daily nonstop USX DH8
IF it's split, I foresee:
IAD: US, 2 daily 733/ 319, 1 daily USX ERJ
UA, 2 daily CRJ, 5 nonstop ACA J31-41
BWI: USX, 2 ERJ, 2 nonstop DH8.
Dominant carriers United, US Airways will both favor Dulles, but both will expand at BWI too.