milemaster
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Joined: Tue Mar 20, 2001 10:19 am

What *if* Delta De-hubbed Dfw?

Tue Oct 02, 2001 6:04 am

It sounds crazy, but it's been discussed on this forum quite a bit over the past few days. We all know that the future of commercial aviation is going to be full of surprises. This was one of the speculations..

Whether it be a CO/DL merger, or simply a downsizing due to market demands... this would cause a major shift in the DFW market.

For those of us who reside in the DFW area, it's no secret that the business traveller pays an inflated premium over most other markets due to AA's major dominance at DFW. Because Delta is #2 at DFW, we enjoy lower fares to most markets as long as we layover at ATL or SLC. While most travellers prefer a non-stop flight, that's easy to get over when you can save 35-40% on full-fare tickets.

Of course, DL also flies Non-stop to many markets from DFW - but the frequency is less then that of AA.

Here is my question to all of you..

What if Delta pulled out of DFW?

This would open up a tremendous amount of gates & opportunites for UA(who has been increasingly building it's presence at DFW) and others. Would AA jump in there and operate token flights from those gates to establish it's presence?

The market is completely unpredictable due to recent events, so everything is speculation. What do you think?
 
mls515
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RE: What *if* Delta De-hubbed Dfw?

Tue Oct 02, 2001 6:07 am

What if a low fare carrier tried to have a mini hub there?
 
airbus380
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RE: What *if* Delta De-hubbed Dfw?

Tue Oct 02, 2001 6:13 am

If Delta pulled out of DFW, then no one would care. They don't have a very extensive hub out of there anyway. It is just a regional hub and not that big in the grand scheme of things.
 
777236ER
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RE: What *if* Delta De-hubbed Dfw?

Tue Oct 02, 2001 6:18 am

Then hell would have frozen over.
Your bone's got a little machine
 
Guest

RE: What *if* Delta De-hubbed Dfw?

Tue Oct 02, 2001 7:32 am

I don't think that it would be a big impact if Delta pulled out of DFW. Any lowfare carrier would get squished like bug if it tried to start up at DFW. AA is too darn dominant.
 
travatl
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RE: What *if* Delta De-hubbed Dfw?

Tue Oct 02, 2001 9:10 am

Not that a Delta "de-hubbing" of DFW is in the near future in my opinion, however. if it were to happen suddenly, this would be the perfect opportunity for AirTran or JetBlue to move in. AA is weak and bleeding, and for once couldn't be the stifling Jurassic predator they have so proven to be in the past.

Just my opinion..... please don't pounce.

Travis
 
saxman66
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RE: What *if* Delta De-hubbed Dfw?

Tue Oct 02, 2001 9:17 am

I'd hate to see DL move outa DFW. Especially at how the airport will have a new international terminal in a few years, as well as an interterminal train. But if they should, I would love to see United expand as well as some others. A low fare, might have trouble at first, starting up, with Southwest out at Love Field, and AA. How ever if they play the cards right, they could so it. But I DL will be doing anything soon.
Chris
UND Souix!
Ride Amtrak!
 
aa61hvy
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RE: What *if* Delta De-hubbed Dfw?

Tue Oct 02, 2001 9:17 am

if delta de-hubbed i bet it would actually help out AA, then if a small airline tried to come in and pick up the pieces, AA would do the same they did to Legend..
Go big or go home
 
Delta737
Posts: 469
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Q

Tue Oct 02, 2001 9:30 am

Actually, in my opinion, AMerican NEEDS Delta to remain in DFW. If Delta pulls out, there would probably be an anti-trust lawsuit against American fairly shortly.

Just as Delta needs Air Tran to remain solvent in ATL. Because without Air Tran, then we really would have a stranglehold on traffic in ATL.

Strange rationale!

DOug
 
heavymetal
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RE: What *if* Delta De-hubbed Dfw?

Tue Oct 02, 2001 9:30 am

The Dallas Fort Worth metroplex is only 60,000 or so people shy of becoming the fifth largest market in America (eclipsing Philadelphia).

Why would DL say, naaa...you know what lets move out of there?

 
padcrasher
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RE: What *if* Delta De-hubbed Dfw?

Tue Oct 02, 2001 9:36 am

Delta has 100 mainline flights in DFW, not including the RJ's. They operate more flights in DFW, than NW does in MEM. They operate more domestic widebody flights than AA does in DFW or CO does in IAH, and if you will go to the DFW Airport website under cargo statistics for the Month of July, you will notice that DL would move more cargo tonnage out of DFW if it were not for AA's International flights.

Airbus

If this is not an extensive hub and "not that big in the grand scheme of things", how would you describe CO's CLE "hub" with 33 mainline flights?
 
sccutler
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RE: What *if* Delta De-hubbed Dfw?

Tue Oct 02, 2001 9:49 am

Padcrasher:

Fascinating stats- and they make me *really* wish that DL would be able to crank up their DFW presence and affect AA's abuse for its DFW-originating pax; but then again, DL's game is not to play spolier for AA; they should be focused on making money; it just seems that there is enough room in this market to allow for meaningful price competition, without a loss-making bloodbath.

But, to address the original question: if DL "de-hubbed" DFW, it would be the perfect opportunity for congress to "de-Wright" DAL (Love Field). Which should happen anyway.
...three miles from BRONS, clear for the ILS one five approach...
 
MAH4546
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RE: What *if* Delta De-hubbed Dfw?

Tue Oct 02, 2001 10:32 am

Heavymetal, you need to re-check your facts. Dallas-Ft. Worth is the ninth largest metroplex in the United States. Philadelphia is 6th. Dallas has roughly 4.8M, while Philly is at roughly 6.0M. The largest cities, in order, are NYC, LAX, CHI, WAS, SFO/OAK/SJC, PHL, BOS, DTW, DFW, HOU, ATL, MIA/FLL, SEA, PHX, and CLE. The only change that is about to happen in those counts is that MIA/FLL is merging with PBI next year, if everything goes as planned, which will move it just barely ahead of DFW in population.
a.
 
PANYNJ
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RE: What *if* Delta De-hubbed Dfw?

Tue Oct 02, 2001 10:43 am

"...to allow for meaningful price competition.."

But Scuttler, airline competition by nature is nonprice competition!

Mah4546,

What are you talking about? MIA/FLL merging with PBI? I know you live down there but i have no idea what you think your talking about.

Reimagined.
 
txagkuwait
Posts: 1388
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RE: What *if* Delta De-hubbed Dfw?

Tue Oct 02, 2001 10:51 am

Life would get interesting in the mighty metroplexus, assuming DL pulled out (or actually reduced svc to flying solely to its hubs in CVG, ATL, and SLC every day).

What do I think would happen?

Someone mentioned it might be a good place for a low fare carrier. Somebody else suggested that a low fare carrier would get squished like a bug.

If DL pulled out.....and WN could not get relief from the onerous Wright Amerndment...what I think you would see is WN over at DFW for long haul service.

AA cannot squish WN like a bug. They have sort of proven that it is often the other way around. (Anybody remember AA's attempt to go DAL-AUS and catch all those folks who craved AAdvantage miles?)

WN is already well known in the metroplex. They have a following. They already advertise in the market there.

WN is also pretty important in a lot of destinations frequented by DL passengers...PHX, LAX, SLC, LAS, PDX, MCO, TPA, BNA. And as long as they are out at DFW...we'll throw in WN nonstops to MCI, STL, MDW, and BWI.

It could get really ugly. It could also be real interesting. One thing is for certain, travelers in and out of DFW would be enjoying significantly reduced airfare.

I doubt it will happen. But it could. A few days ago folks were discussing whether or not WN ought to purchase HP. I had a conversation with an ex-WN employee (retired) who said that maybe WN ought not buy all of HP...but buying their "route" out of DFW.....might be a good idea.

 
MAH4546
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RE: What *if* Delta De-hubbed Dfw?

Tue Oct 02, 2001 10:58 am

PANYNJ, Miami-Dade/Broward and Palm Beach officials want to merge thier two metropolitan areas. Without going into way too much detail and even more off topic, it's a simple fact that Miami and Palm Beach share a commuter rail system and a lot of people who work in Palm Beach live in Miami and visa-versa. People in Palm Beach fly out of MIA and people in Miami fly out of PBI, etc. They share a lot of things, and plus, little known fact, but the whole Miami/Ft. Lauderdale/Palm Beach metroplex would be, if it gets the go ahead to be merged, still smaller in land area than Dallas-Ft. Worth, Houston-Gavelston, Washington-Baltimore, and even Atlanta (2/3 the size of Atlanta). It is just very long and narrow instead of a "square". The merger would follow the same principals of the merger of Washington and Baltimore's metros.
a.
 
heavymetal
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RE: What *if* Delta De-hubbed Dfw?

Tue Oct 02, 2001 11:08 am

Mah, here are the stats I use. This is from Arbitron.Com and ranks each media market based on a population over the age of 12, which roughly parallels census numbers.

Rank City In Millions
1 CM New York, NY 14,487,900
2 CM Los Angeles, CA 10,489,800
3 CM Chicago, IL 7,191,300
4 CM San Francisco, CA 5,821,700
5 CM Philadelphia, PA 4,081,300
6 CM Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX 4,005,300
7 CM Detroit, MI 3,836,600
8 CM Boston, MA 3,741,200
9 CM Washington, DC 3,728,800
10 CM Houston-Galveston, TX 3,676,600

Youre right, I do need to check my facts. I quoted 60,00o and the actual number is 76,000.

FYI, in media revenue, roughly a good idea of a market's cashflow, DFW is already 5 and giving 4 a run for their money...

I stand by my post & my opinion.
 
heavymetal
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RE: What *if* Delta De-hubbed Dfw?

Tue Oct 02, 2001 11:13 am

Also I live in Palm Beach, easily 60 miles from downtown Miami...not exactly an easy commute...and if there are people around here that think we should be a big giant family with the monster cities to the south, I have yet to find them.
 
milemaster
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RE: What *if* Delta De-hubbed Dfw?

Tue Oct 02, 2001 11:47 am

Good suggestions..

The idea of another low-fare carrier like Jetblue would be a possibility I would think. Airtran may step up it's service as their loads appear to be excellent to ATL. United as well would most likely jump at the chance to get more gates. Generally, there's always 2-3 UA 72's, 73's & A318's waiting for one of their 4 gates during peak times.

Delta used to have a significantly larger operation out of DFW in the early 90's. Anyone remember Terminal 2-E easy street ad campaign? When was the last time DL advertised in the DFW metroplex?

Just 6 months ago, a practically landmark "FLY DELTA JETS" neon billboard was taken down for an AA billboard. That billboard had been there since the late 60's (183 airport freeway) for GSW (Greater southwest airport - also know as Amon Carter field).

Just an observation...
 
blink182
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RE: What *if* Delta De-hubbed Dfw?

Tue Oct 02, 2001 11:53 am

I really wouldn't be surprised if Delta did drop DFW. AA is really forcing DL out, and Delta used to have trans-atlantics, until, you guessed it- American beat them out.
I do think that if another airline such as United were to come in, there could be some more competition. I have been waiting for Northwest to come in for a long time, as they don't have hub in the southern USA, and I would think DFW might work.

I think SWA might stand a little chance, but given the fact that this is American's backyard, American wouldn't be too happy, and would do just about anything to block Southwest, or any other lowfare airline. We saw this happen at DAL with Legend, and if this were to happen at DFW, the result would probably be the same.(this is not coming from an SWA hater point, this is from a neutral point)
rgds,
blink182
Give me a break, I created this username when I was a kid...
 
LoneStarMike
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RE: What *if* Delta De-hubbed Dfw?

Tue Oct 02, 2001 11:59 am

Would AA jump in there and operate token flights from those gates to establish it's presence?

That's a good question. If traffic starts to pick up and the economy started to improve, I could see them trying to do that. They've been doing the same thing at RDU for years now.

Remember, AA basically closed it's hub at RDU in 1995, but they still hold a long-term lease on Terminal C, which I believe has 26 gates. The RDU Airport Authority has been trying to get AA to give up some of those gates, but AA has refused (so far). Their strategy has been to hog all those gates so that there was very little room at RDU for other airlines to come in and compete with them.

Up until Midway ceased operations, AA was subleasing 17 of those gates to Midway, but with Midway out of the picture it seems ridiculous for AA to keep all 26 based on their current operations out of RDU, especially since they are trying to save every dollar they can right now. Still, I wouldn't put it past them.

BTW, I love TxAg's idea about WN operating out of DFW, and that's something the citizens of Ft. Worth probably would support, whereas Ft. Worth has not been supportive of lifting the restrictios over at Love Field.

LoneStarMike

 
us330
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RE: What *if* Delta De-hubbed Dfw?

Tue Oct 02, 2001 12:17 pm

If Delta leaves, then I wouldn't really care who the airline was, as long as it decided to combat the mighty TyrAAnosAAurus Rex at its nest.