Beefmoney
Topic Author
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Is This The Beginning Of The End For AA?

Tue Nov 13, 2001 7:57 am

How do you guys think AA will hold up after this, after all this is their 3rd accident in 2 months! Does anyone think this will signal the end for AA? A horrendous drop in revenue came after 9/11 and just when people start feeling safe again, another AA plane goes down. How will they hold up?
 
Cleco
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RE: Is This The Beginning Of The End For AA?

Tue Nov 13, 2001 8:01 am

This is their FIRST accident, 3rd crash, in two months.
EMBRY-RIDDLE BABY
 
Guest

RE: Is This The Beginning Of The End For AA?

Tue Nov 13, 2001 8:02 am

It all depends how the deal with this current tragedy! American Airlines is a very classy company, they should be able to deal with this.
Iain
 
milemaster
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RE: Is This The Beginning Of The End For AA?

Tue Nov 13, 2001 8:02 am

They will hold up because there are few markets in which they don't monopolize.
 
travelin man
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RE: Is This The Beginning Of The End For AA?

Tue Nov 13, 2001 8:02 am

Frankly, I do not view the events of September 11th as an "accident". Tragic? Yes. But certainly no "accident".

This is the first instance of catastrophic mechanical failure (if that is indeed what it was) that I can remember happening in quite a while at AA. Has there been others recently?

AA should recover OK, in my opinion. I don't think this is like the early to mid-'90s when USAir became "USScare".
 
D L X
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RE: Is This The Beginning Of The End For AA?

Tue Nov 13, 2001 8:05 am

PA103 was a major factor in the death of Pan Am. Weren't too many airlines that could be considered with more class than Pan Am.

Also, TW800 quickly took a company on the verge of truly turning around, and led it on the path to acquisition.

Hopefully AA will come out of this okay. But I wouldn't be surprised by another outcome.
 
milemaster
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RE: Is This The Beginning Of The End For AA?

Tue Nov 13, 2001 8:07 am

I am considering however transferring my miles to Continental or Delta.
 
Beefmoney
Topic Author
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RE: Is This The Beginning Of The End For AA?

Tue Nov 13, 2001 8:08 am

You guys are right, I should have stated it differently. this is AA's first ACCIDENT. Sometimes i just start generalizing all aviation crashes as "accidents"
 
travelin man
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RE: Is This The Beginning Of The End For AA?

Tue Nov 13, 2001 8:08 am

Milemaster, may I ask why you would do that? (Actually, I don't believe you can transfer AA miles to CO or DL, but that's another question).
 
tkcom
Posts: 34
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RE: Is This The Beginning Of The End For AA?

Tue Nov 13, 2001 8:09 am

First PanAM...
then TWA...

now AA?

 
coboeing777
Posts: 677
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RE: Is This The Beginning Of The End For AA?

Tue Nov 13, 2001 8:10 am

thank you CleCO...those were my exact thoughts when I first read this topic. Those 2 crashes on 9/11 were DELIBERATE. This is more than likely some sort of mechanical failure and therefore an ACCIDENT.

I'm tired of all the misinformation people spread around, especiallyon the news networks. My god what nonse they spew. It's a B767, no wait, its 727, no no, it was a Pan Am 747, no wait, now its an Airbus 380.
 
milemaster
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RE: Is This The Beginning Of The End For AA?

Tue Nov 13, 2001 8:11 am

Believe me, I'd rather be using my miles on AA since I live in the DFW metroplex and it makes the most sense.

I have a great deal of admiration and significant memories with AA and hope they pull through...

..but.. It's not an insane thought to move my miles to something like www.webmiles.com and use them on whatever airlines are around when I decide to use them.

Just a precautionary measure I guess
 
co/ba
Posts: 388
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RE: Is This The Beginning Of The End For AA?

Tue Nov 13, 2001 8:27 am

I don't know. AA is a large well respected airline. My question is will AA be held liable for all deaths and dammage on the ground if proven a mechanicle and what will that do when paired with the loss of 3 airliners and possibly consumer confidence. Not a stab a AA just a question.
 
heavymetal
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RE: Is This The Beginning Of The End For AA?

Tue Nov 13, 2001 8:44 am

After all the goofy guesses by the media, and the crap they take for making them, I'm shocked you guys are stooping...

AA had an awful crash in 79 in Chicago. Had a bad one in Little Rock when one of their top Super 80 drivers took his airplane into a thunderstorm.

Delta had a bad summer in '85 at DFW.

United had one fine DC-10 captain at Sioux City, but the video was pretty awful.

Continental lost a DC-9 in Denver awhile back. They also seem to have a knack for running things into parked airplanes, or vice-versa.

I'm not a fool, I understand that the market dynamic right now is pretty depressing. But you guys are bringing up 103 and 800 as examples of crashes killing the company. You ignore the fact that the crashes killed abysmally run companies, simply by pounding the last nail into the coffin. AA is NOT an abysmally run company.....and that's coming from a guy who has more than once had his ass stuck in a sweaty silver 727 at DFW, number 32 for takeoff cause of bad scheduling and summer thunderstorms.

American will be around for a long time to come. As awful as the day's events, and the season's, inevitably time is something that heals all wounds.
 
D L X
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Heavymetal

Tue Nov 13, 2001 8:59 am

Whoa, pardnuh, slow your roll.

I'm assuming you're talking about me in that last post, but correct me if I'm wrong.

PA was certainly mismanaged, but its disease wasn't fatal until PA103. TW was becoming quite *well* managed right before 800.

AA isn't mismanaged, far from it. But, the circumstances pre-9/11 are leading to similar results. Different illness, same symptoms.
Regardless of what politicians doing the CYA had to say, the country was in recession, and the airlines were feeling it more than most. Now, throw in the fact that AA will be sued by a great many people as a result of three crashes in 60 days, and you have a severe problem. Thankfully, congress has stepped in to limit some of the WTC and Pentagon liability, so, they won't be charged the whole bill for the loss of the WTC. They will be billed for the whole of whatever losses are related to today's events. And, what happens if Americans begin to think of AA as marked? It might not be pretty.


BTW, the terrorist attacks are doing something very weird to this story. It seems like it's considered 'good news' if the plane only crashed, and wasn't a terrorist attack. While I too would feel much safer if it turns out that this was not a terrorist act, I would cringe to hear someone call this a 'run-of-the-mill' crash. This was as great a tragedy as PA103 and greater than TW800, in terms of loss of life and property.
 
cedarjet
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RE: Is This The Beginning Of The End For AA?

Tue Nov 13, 2001 9:15 am

D L X, I don't agree with you one bit about Pan Am - they made a loss every year but three since 1973, in the early 80s it was over $1m a day, day in day out, year in year out. In fact traffic (albeit the low yield crowd willing to tolerate ancient planes and nasty service) were returning in the wake of Lockerbie (103), it was the Gulf War that finished them off. But they would have unquestionably gone to the wall anyway. There was nothing that hadn't already been sold (Intercontinental Hotel chain in 82, the entire Pacific network in 85, NE shuttle late 80s, Internal German Service (IGS) in 89, finally most of the Atlantic in about 90).
fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
 
co/ba
Posts: 388
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RE: Is This The Beginning Of The End For AA?

Tue Nov 13, 2001 9:15 am

Good post DLX.
 
sccutler
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RE: Is This The Beginning Of The End For AA?

Tue Nov 13, 2001 10:32 am

Fundamental difference: AA has a fortress balance sheet; PA & TWA did not.
...three miles from BRONS, clear for the ILS one five approach...
 
HP737
Posts: 68
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 12:47 am

RE: Is This The Beginning Of The End For AA?

Tue Nov 13, 2001 10:43 am


I just flew AA in September for the first time and I got the impression of a well-managed airline. I sure hope they pull through and I think they will, but it's certainly going to be a tough haul for them.
 
Dazed767
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RE: Is This The Beginning Of The End For AA?

Tue Nov 13, 2001 11:17 am

They'll be fine.
 
Trvlr
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RE: Is This The Beginning Of The End For AA?

Tue Nov 13, 2001 12:47 pm

AA is going to get through this fine. It is a well-managed airline that knows what its doing, and will undoubtedly come through this entire 2001 mess shaken, but on its feet and not in any danger of collapse.

Aaron G.
 
flagship
Posts: 1
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RE: Is This The Beginning Of The End For AA?

Tue Nov 13, 2001 12:58 pm

American can and will survive. What concerns me is the "business" of commercial aviation.
If this was not a work of sabotage, could it be faulty maintenance? Can airlines strapped for cash slow down maintenace schedules? In business most companies do
"addition by subtraction". I have been involved with AA
most of my life and I am very proud of our accomplishments. My hope is that we continue to put passenger safety as the first concern....
 
Guest

RE: Is This The Beginning Of The End For AA?

Tue Nov 13, 2001 6:56 pm

>>AA had an awful crash in 79 in Chicago. Had a bad one in Little Rock when one of their top Super 80 drivers took his airplane into a thunderstorm.<<

I'm wasn't around in '79, so I don't know what the economy was, but in the late 90's when Little Rock happened, the economy was in a boom. It would have been very hard not to survive as a major then. But its different now. We are in a recession, business travel is down, leisure travel is down, and more people than before are still scared to fly.
 
contrails
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RE: Is This The Beginning Of The End For AA?

Tue Nov 13, 2001 9:49 pm

The terrorist attacks of 9/11/ were not "accidents". How can you say such a thing? And no, I don't think this marks the "beginning of the end" for AA. They will recover, as will the airline industry and the USA.



Flying Colors Forever!
 
Guest

RE: Is This The Beginning Of The End For AA?

Tue Nov 13, 2001 10:49 pm

Cedarjet...exactly what I was thinking.
 
Tan Flyr
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RE: Is This The Beginning Of The End For AA?

Tue Nov 13, 2001 11:16 pm

Well put Heavymetal & Cedarjet. AA will have some bumps along the way here, but it will survive. I was thinking more along the lines of GE since we know that there is some controversy about the CF6 family.

If this is proven to be a design flaw, the lawyers will line up to skin GE. (Can't wait for TEDSKI's take on this!)
 
jwenting
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RE: Is This The Beginning Of The End For AA?

Tue Nov 13, 2001 11:23 pm

People were already planning to sue AA and UAL after Sept. 11 for damages, this won't help in that respect.
Whatever the outcome, expect AA to be sued for several billion, maybe tens of billions of USD.
And they'll loose in court too, the juries will be selected to be people who don't like "large corporations" or "environmentally unfriendly companies" to make sure of that.
I wish I were flying
 
Guest

RE: Is This The Beginning Of The End For AA?

Wed Nov 14, 2001 1:21 am

After what happened yesterday to that A300-600R involving one of it's GE CF6 engines, I would not be surprised if AA from now on purchases new wide-bodies with either Rolls Royce or Pratt & Whitney engines! I would also suggest you forget about AA going for the GE90 777-300ER!
 
User avatar
RayChuang
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RE: Is This The Beginning Of The End For AA?

Wed Nov 14, 2001 1:28 am

Folks,

AA will still be around. Reason: they have powerful political connections in Washington, DC to keep them around.  Smile

Besides, I still think what happened to AA 587 points more and more to somebody at the NY/NJ Port Authority not doing a good enough job clearing out the birds at the bird sanctuaries near JFK--preliminary look at the engines point to a possible major bird strike engine ingestion issue.

And TEDSKI, this is not going to sour AA from ordering the 777's with the GE90 engines. Don't forget the GE90 is a literal designed from scratch engine, with no common parts from the older CF6 series of engines. GE was the only jet engine company to design an all-new engine for the 777, unlike Rolls-Royce and Pratt & Whitney, which designed derivatives of their current engines for the 777.
 
Guest

RE: Is This The Beginning Of The End For AA?

Wed Nov 14, 2001 1:32 am

P&W and RR were smart going in that direction with using designed derivatives of reliable engines such as the P&W 4000 and RR RB211 series!
 
D L X
Posts: 11628
Joined: Thu May 27, 1999 3:30 am

Tan Flyer And GE

Wed Nov 14, 2001 8:16 am

I don't think GE has to worry about losing it all even if it is found that the CF6 has a design flaw. Consider how many airframes globally have the CF6 under their wings, and then consider how many have had that nasty failure like US in PHL and UA over Iowa. I see a lot of parallels between the CF6 and the 737 rudder problem. Both are hard to prove, but both won't sink the company. (Especially considering that GE does a whole lot more than aircraft engines.)
 
NWA ARJ
Posts: 481
Joined: Tue May 08, 2001 9:54 am

RE: Is This The Beginning Of The End For AA?

Wed Nov 14, 2001 8:34 am

It depends on what they do do deal with this tragedy and the past ones. If they do the right thing I think they will do just fine but if not they may be doomed, and I wouldnt mind seeing them go down hard.


ARJ
Nightmare 68, Fargo Tower, Runway 36, Fly Runway Heading, Mantain 10,000, Cleared For Takeoff, Change To Departure
 
Guest

RE: NWA ARJ

Wed Nov 14, 2001 9:52 am

That comment you make is completely inappropriate. There is reason why you should wish for the demise of any airline, especially if you call yourself an avid fan of aviation. Thats fine that you may have your favorite carrier and hate others, so be it. If an airline such as AA were to fall it would not be pretty. Think about the number of people that would be out of jobs, support businesses that would lose money, communities that would lose air service, the among of planes put out of service and the massive inconvience for passengers across this country if not the world. Just look at the number of carriers that have fallen in recent weeks, that is not a good thing whatsoever. Even more so in times like these, you should not be wishing for the failure of an airline due to a crash.
 
Guest

RE: Is This The Beginning Of The End For AA?

Wed Nov 14, 2001 9:58 am

NWA ARJ, you wouldn't mind seeing, our airline, American airlines go down hard????

That is a terrible thing to say. We, as
Amercian's should be proud to have American Airlines as our unofficial flag carrier. They fly our colors, red, white, and blue where ever they fly. I don't know about you, but that makes me feel very proud. God bless America, American Airlines and all of the victums of the unfortunate tradegies of yesterday and the past couple of months!

Click for large version
Click here for full size photo!

Photo © Joe Pries

 
blink182
Posts: 5269
Joined: Mon Oct 18, 1999 3:09 am

RE: Is This The Beginning Of The End For AA?

Wed Nov 14, 2001 12:02 pm

I have read this a few times on the forums in the past(sorry, forgot which posts, just remember reading) but TWA and PA were already doomed before 103 and 800. Right now, many suspect the AA A300 crash to be a birdstrike. I think AA will get through this, and I am pulling for them also.
rgds,
blink182
Give me a break, I created this username when I was a kid...
 
docpepz
Posts: 1706
Joined: Thu May 24, 2001 8:20 pm

RE: Is This The Beginning Of The End For AA?

Wed Nov 14, 2001 12:15 pm

I get the impression that United is the unofficial flag carrier. Or perhaps it's because I live in Asia. American flies mostly to S America and Europe, while United flies mostly to Asia and Europe right?
 
D L X
Posts: 11628
Joined: Thu May 27, 1999 3:30 am

RE: Is This The Beginning Of The End For AA?

Wed Nov 14, 2001 2:04 pm

The US Flag carriers are AA, UA, DL, NW, US, and CO. (According to the government.)

The "flag carrier" means something completely different here than it does overseas.

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