again perfectly logical. I assumed the 332 would replace the 762s on a 1 to 1 basis and that the 333s would replace 747 classics. It is hard to get an overall picture without knowing the option arrangements on the newly ordered aircraft. All I know for sure is that the 738s have another 60 options to the 15 ordered. I think you can probably double the firm orders as options for the 744ER/380,that is 6 and 12 options,respectively and that their planned total commitment of A330s would be around 30-35, to completely replace the 763s in 10-15 years.
There are too many unknowns at the moment at QF and in the world airline scene to make accurate predictions. QF will be retiring the 762s(7) and 747-2/L(7) in the next 2 years. They will be acquiring 15 738s this year, and 6 744ERs by end 2003 and now it looks like only 4 332 by end 2003. They require more planes for New Zealand domestic routes (8-10?), 763s(initially 4 building to 12) for AA and the rumors are persistent that another 6 or so 717s will be joining the fleet. I am not sure on the 743 retirement plans, but these could be fast-tracked if the economic climate demanded it. They also have to decide on an RJ for their regional services.
So, it is all pretty confusing, but I have persistently said I believe QF erred in ordering the A330(not that it isn't a very good aircraft). I don't think they need a big twin for domestic services as the competition isn't as great as when they were ordered and I think they made a big mistake in not ordering the 777-200ER. It could have replaced all classic 747s and operated with great efficiency on all of QF's international services,including non-stop trans-Pacific sectors. I know it was the preferred aircraft at QF, but the bean-counters decided otherwise.