Boeing744
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AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Fri Feb 10, 2017 8:26 pm

I was just browsing at some flights to Victoria in July and noticed that Air Canada's direct YYZ-YYJ flights have been switched to Rouge from May 1st onward.

At first it seems like the long-standing early flight at 6am has been switched to mid-day departure with a Rouge A319.

Into July it seems to go up to 2x Rouge with A321s and B763s. This would be a huge increase in capacity on this route.

On the one hand the switch to Rouge does not surprise me too much because Kelowna (which is a similar market and duration) has been Rouge for quite a while now. On the other hand, one might think that Victoria had some more premium (government) traffic.

Any thoughts on this big change?
 
b6sea
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Fri Feb 10, 2017 10:46 pm

I'm not sure if I'm surprised by this or not. Like you say, YYJ has some premium traffic (especially compared to Kelowna, which is also a smaller market), but I still think most of the traffic to YYJ is leisure, especially folks coming from Eastern Canada.

For the government traffic, a lot of it is probably headed to Ottawa, so maybe they figure it's not much difference transferring in YVR vs YYZ? That said, I don't think government traffic is usually all that significant. If that were the case I think you'd see a nonstop to YOW. My frame of reference is for US states sending people to DC (especially the state of Washington), but I imagine it's not too dissimilar from what happens in Canada. A lot of the government traffic that exists is fairly local with relatively few people traveling from one capital to the other. Further, my understanding is that a lot of the federal government's offices are in Vancouver.
 
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kgaiflyer
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Fri Feb 10, 2017 11:29 pm

Off the top of my head, I'd say that since WS is eating AC's lunch in Victoria, AC need to do something different.

OTOH, the people in charge of tourism need to get their act together and bring the people back. But if AC continues with the minimalist service into YYJ, they might just as well pack it up and hand it over to WestJet.
 
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longhauler
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Fri Feb 10, 2017 11:59 pm

kgaiflyer wrote:
Off the top of my head, I'd say that since WS is eating AC's lunch in Victoria, AC need to do something different.

OTOH, the people in charge of tourism need to get their act together and bring the people back. But if AC continues with the minimalist service into YYJ, they might just as well pack it up and hand it over to WestJet.

Westjet doesn't fly YYZ-YYJ.

And ... the fact that the flights have gone from an A319 to the present A321 gives you an idea how well the route is doing. (very well). And with increased capacity this summer over last, it looks like the guys smarter than us think it will do even better.

One of the interesting things noted in the last financial results is that Air Canada's seat mile cost is now the same as Westjet. That would put the 20-25% edge on costs of Rouge over Westjet. If Westjet is thinking about jumping into the YYZ-YYJ market, it's going to be a tough battle ... and get the popcorn out, we have front row seats.
Just because I stopped arguing, doesn't mean I think you are right. It just means I gave up!
 
BillyD
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Sat Feb 11, 2017 12:02 am

I will NOT fly Rouge when paying mainline rates. The seat pitch on the 319's is ridiculous. I used to love flying the E190's from YYC to PHX. Now that they have the Rouge 319's, and the fare is basically the same as Westjet, bye bye AC.
 
AWACSooner
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Sat Feb 11, 2017 12:27 am

I'm sorry, but is it just me, or is AC adding Rouge routes right and left lately? I thought they were capped at how many planes/routes this "airline" could fly.
And count me as one who will never step on one of those seat pitch hell planes.
 
Boeing744
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Sat Feb 11, 2017 12:42 am

longhauler wrote:
kgaiflyer wrote:
Off the top of my head, I'd say that since WS is eating AC's lunch in Victoria, AC need to do something different.

OTOH, the people in charge of tourism need to get their act together and bring the people back. But if AC continues with the minimalist service into YYJ, they might just as well pack it up and hand it over to WestJet.

Westjet doesn't fly YYZ-YYJ.

And ... the fact that the flights have gone from an A319 to the present A321 gives you an idea how well the route is doing. (very well). And with increased capacity this summer over last, it looks like the guys smarter than us think it will do even better.

One of the interesting things noted in the last financial results is that Air Canada's seat mile cost is now the same as Westjet. That would put the 20-25% edge on costs of Rouge over Westjet. If Westjet is thinking about jumping into the YYZ-YYJ market, it's going to be a tough battle ... and get the popcorn out, we have front row seats.

Actually, WestJet has flown YYZ-YYJ for a number of years seasonally. Sunwing also did it for at least one summer with a stop in Vancouver.

On the bright side, I was seeing a lot of Aeroplan availability during the summer, which in the past has been tricky with this flight.
 
rampbro
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Sat Feb 11, 2017 1:14 am

Boeing744 wrote:
Actually, WestJet has flown YYZ-YYJ for a number of years seasonally. Sunwing also did it for at least one summer with a stop in Vancouver.


WS has a red eye and headstart to YYZ during the summer. The WG flights to YYZ were a total fiasco - we might as well bring up Jetsgo while we're at it.

I laughed so hard when I read that YYJ was going to Rouge. Luckily I'm a WS/DL flyer, but many of my colleagues are not, and are suitably upset that their most commonly used flight got rouged. So what are the options now on AC - rouge to YYZ, an ancient stinky Dash to wait at the gate in YVR, or a newer Dash over the Rockies to YYC.

I'd have to say that I agree the WS are eating AC for breakfast in YYJ - otherwise what justifies the decrease in the quality of service.
 
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longhauler
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Sat Feb 11, 2017 1:38 am

You guys must be seeing something that I don't.

I don't see any non-stops this summer on Westjet from YYZ-YYJ.
Just because I stopped arguing, doesn't mean I think you are right. It just means I gave up!
 
Whywhyjay
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Sat Feb 11, 2017 1:52 am

I've been Rouged! I'm very annoyed about this, I had an Aeroplan reward booking for YYJ to YYZ and onward using AC374 (mainline A319). I just got an itinerary change last week that the flight is now AC1632 on a Rouge A321. I am surprised that this route is considered "leisure" as there is a lot of Government traffic between Victoria and Ottawa, I believe one of these flights used to stop in Toronto then continue on to Ottawa. There is also a lot of military traffic between the Pacific and Atlantic Naval Bases using these direct YYZ flights. I have in the past used this flight for work myself, and would never knowingly buy a ticket on a 29" seat pitch aircraft. I'm surprised their bringing the 767 here, I don't think I've ever seen a 767 here before, I did see a Canadien DC-10 once that was diverted from YVR due to fog.

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Whywhyjay?
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Boeing744
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Sat Feb 11, 2017 1:57 am

longhauler wrote:
You guys must be seeing something that I don't.

I don't see any non-stops this summer on Westjet from YYZ-YYJ.

It's not daily, but I picked a random day (July 5th) YYZ-YYJ and it is bookable. Then found a return July 11. So yes, WS is returning to the route this summer.
 
Thomaas
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Sat Feb 11, 2017 2:49 am

Boeing744 wrote:
longhauler wrote:
You guys must be seeing something that I don't.

I don't see any non-stops this summer on Westjet from YYZ-YYJ.

It's not daily, but I picked a random day (July 5th) YYZ-YYJ and it is bookable. Then found a return July 11. So yes, WS is returning to the route this summer.


A double daily on AC is much more competitive than WS's less than daily offering. If seat pitch is an issue, there is extra legroom seating available and a premium cabin is also offered (same product as AC itself)
 
ac7e7
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Sat Feb 11, 2017 2:56 am

I am in Victoria every couple of weeks and find the loads to be 80%+. I find very little difference between Westjet and Rouge. I'm not sure what people want from their airlines?

I realize the "in" thing is for people to complain about Air Canada. But their reasons for hating them is mostly fluff. I fly both AC/rouge and Westjet extensively (weekly actually). There is very little difference between the two airlines from an economy seat or service standpoint. I find I get more value flying Air Canada because of upgrades and lounge access.

If the demand is there, AC will switch to mainline. There is likely more demand for mainline service to other markets than to Victoria.

If Air Canada flies a 777 to Victoria and drops prices to fill the aircraft, the haters would accuse them of trying to drive out the competition. There is no winning with them. In fact, I believe most AC haters don't even fly more than once a year. If people really hated them as much as you all claim they do, nobody would fly them. The numbers tell a different story. If the haters actually fly with them regularily, then shame on them. Do us all a favour and put your money where your mouth is.

One poster above said he will not pay for a 29" seat - no problem. Keep in mind that most airlines are reducing their seat pitch. Westjet will likely reduce it further once their shareholders start realizing their cost advantage has been erased.

If you dont like them, dont fly them. My favorite line when I read an AC complaint news story is "I'll never fly them again!" Whatever my friend - you probably fly once a decade so who cares? If you want first class service, buy a first class ticket. If not, take your seat in the back and amuse yourself for a few hours.
 
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767333ER
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Sat Feb 11, 2017 3:39 am

I think it's so funny how people are whining about 1" of seat pitch. The mainline cabins have 31" pitch in economy and the Rouge 767s have 30" pitch. The 1" isn't that huge. I will admit though that any less such as the 29" on the Rouge Airbus fleet is pushing it, but people don't seem to complain when they fly on European short hall jets that have it. If you ask me 30" pitch on a 767 with 18" wide seats that unfortunately hard is better than a 737 with 31" pitch and a 17" wide seat of similar comfort especially when both have the same type of IFE and service. The 767 overall is a better ride than the 737 though.
Been on: 732 733 734 73G 738 752 763 A319 A320 A321 CRJ CR7 CRA/CR9 E145 E175 E190 F28 MD-82 MD-83 C172S P2006T
 
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longhauler
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Sat Feb 11, 2017 11:22 am

Got it now, thanks. I see it three times a week, MWF. I guess I shouldn't buy a lottery ticket, as every various date I picked this summer there was no non-stop.

rampbro wrote:
I'd have to say that I agree the WS are eating AC for breakfast in YYJ - otherwise what justifies the decrease in the quality of service.


I find this funny. Westjet has a 130 seat 737 three times a week, and Air Canada has a daily 280 seat 767 and a daily 200 seat A321 .... but, it's Westjet that's eating Air Canada for breakfast!
Just because I stopped arguing, doesn't mean I think you are right. It just means I gave up!
 
SpaceshipDC10
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Tue Feb 14, 2017 2:01 pm

On the link below it says AC operated three times daily last summer. What types were operating the route then?

http://www.routesonline.com/news/38/air ... ge-in-s17/
 
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longhauler
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Tue Feb 14, 2017 2:04 pm

SpaceshipDC10 wrote:
On the link below it says AC operated three times daily last summer. What types were operating the route then?

One 120 seat A319 and one 146 seat A320 daily, with an additional 120 seat A319 5 times a week.
Just because I stopped arguing, doesn't mean I think you are right. It just means I gave up!
 
Dominion301
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Tue Feb 14, 2017 2:40 pm

b6sea wrote:
I'm not sure if I'm surprised by this or not. Like you say, YYJ has some premium traffic (especially compared to Kelowna, which is also a smaller market), but I still think most of the traffic to YYJ is leisure, especially folks coming from Eastern Canada.

For the government traffic, a lot of it is probably headed to Ottawa, so maybe they figure it's not much difference transferring in YVR vs YYZ? That said, I don't think government traffic is usually all that significant. If that were the case I think you'd see a nonstop to YOW. My frame of reference is for US states sending people to DC (especially the state of Washington), but I imagine it's not too dissimilar from what happens in Canada. A lot of the government traffic that exists is fairly local with relatively few people traveling from one capital to the other. Further, my understanding is that a lot of the federal government's offices are in Vancouver.


YYJ is the only provincial/territorial capital not directly linked to YOW on at least a seasonal basis. No doubt this has everything to do with YYJ's distance from YOW, resulting in the high # of intermediary connection city options & # of connecting flight options there are (i.e. via YVR, YYC, YEG and YYZ). If YOW can support up to 3x weekly service to the small territorial capitals of YZF & YXY on Air North (which 4N's President in an article a few months ago called their 'best performing route last summer'), then surely there's demand for at least a 3x weekly summer-seasonal nonstop to YYJ. The problem is AC & WS have no incentive whatsoever to serve it given all the above-noted connection points. Couple that with the YOW Airport Authority not exactly having a reputation for innovative air service development, and at the YYJ end likely the same, it makes for the lack of a nonstop. Personally, I think Air North would be the exact airline the airport authorities should contact if the ever want a nonstop link between the two capitals or present this to one of the aspiring real ULCCs to take a hard look at summer-seasonal YOW-YYJ.

AWACSooner wrote:
I'm sorry, but is it just me, or is AC adding Rouge routes right and left lately? I thought they were capped at how many planes/routes this "airline" could fly.
And count me as one who will never step on one of those seat pitch hell planes.


I'm pretty sure this year marks when AC finally hits the 50 aircraft cap on the size of Rouge's fleet. Given the shruken 763/Airbus/E90 mainline fleet, it makes sense to convert YYZ-YYJ to Rouge, a long, leisure-heavy route with low WS nonstop competition and that frees up a lot mainline aircraft utilization time. I'm sure YYJ spotters will enjoy seeing a 763 all summer. I think the last time YYJ saw widebody service was defunct C3 service to HNL. Wardair used to bring in the 747 to YYJ way way back when.
 
jimbo737
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Tue Feb 14, 2017 3:50 pm

Air Canada's casm is no where near WJ's casm in spite of the kook-aide that is being liberally distributed in Montreal suggesting that it is so.

Air Canada has "lowered" its casm by intreasing its ASL from 900 miles to close to 1,500 miles over the past 6 years, together with the help of an extended run of cheap fuel pricing, available to all.

Even with TATL flying, WJ's ASL remains below 900 miles.

AC achieve their lowest costs seasonally in the 3Q when they maximize flying and keep as much iron out of heavy maintenance as possible. They pay for that In the winter when asm production drops 15% or more, with no material change in fixed costs and maintenance expense shoots up.

Those who actually believe the costs are equal need to consider one very important question:

If it costs AC x cents a mile to fly their average stage length of 1,500 miles or so, and costs drop as stage length increases, what does it cost WestJet to operate a flight of equal distance, given their unit costs are generated over an average stage length close to half of Air Canada's?

Even after 45 years of Southwest leveraging both their face rate and this stage length cost advantage, there are still some who are oblivious to this economic reality.

Meanwhile, Rouge continues to canibalize mainline routes, a strategy that didn't exactly work out well for all the various US airline versions of the "airlines within an airline".

Virtually every Rouge passenger flying on an ancient 767 from YYZ to YYJ that should long since been retired takes a passenger off an AC mainline YYZ-YYC-YYJ flight or an AC YYZ-YVR-YYJ flight.
 
jmt18325
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Tue Feb 14, 2017 4:11 pm

Have you flown on a Rouge 767? There's nothing wrong with it, and it hardly feels ancient. A lot of airlines fly very old aircraft.
 
Whiteguy
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Tue Feb 14, 2017 4:39 pm

Half the Rouge "67s are early 2000 builds and the rest are mid '90s.....they're the youngest in the AC fleet transfered over!

But your ok with pax flying on the A320s built in the late '80s....
 
chrisa330
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Tue Feb 14, 2017 5:28 pm

Whiteguy wrote:
But your ok with pax flying on the A320s built in the late '80s....


Not to mention the almost 25 year old B767s that WS are flying.
 
Whiteguy
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Tue Feb 14, 2017 6:37 pm

chrisa330 wrote:
Whiteguy wrote:
But your ok with pax flying on the A320s built in the late '80s....


Not to mention the almost 25 year old B767s that WS are flying.


Sure, nothing to do with the point though....
 
neromancer
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Tue Feb 14, 2017 6:52 pm

767333ER wrote:
I think it's so funny how people are whining about 1" of seat pitch. The mainline cabins have 31" pitch in economy and the Rouge 767s have 30" pitch. The 1" isn't that huge. I will admit though that any less such as the 29" on the Rouge Airbus fleet is pushing it, but people don't seem to complain when they fly on European short hall jets that have it. If you ask me 30" pitch on a 767 with 18" wide seats that unfortunately hard is better than a 737 with 31" pitch and a 17" wide seat of similar comfort especially when both have the same type of IFE and service. The 767 overall is a better ride than the 737 though.


You must have fairly short legs.
I'm fairly tall (6'1" with a 32" inseam). The 31" seat pitch is barely tolerable for me. Losing an inch of legroom is huge. Losing two inches is practically unworkable to me.
 
IPFreely
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Tue Feb 14, 2017 7:11 pm

jimbo737 wrote:
Even after 45 years of Southwest leveraging both their face rate and this stage length cost advantage, there are still some who are oblivious to this economic reality.


Thank you for reminding everyone of this. Southwest's big early growth was so long ago that many forget. And news that should remind us is often released late in the day on a Friday so many don't even notice.
 
chrisa330
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Tue Feb 14, 2017 7:33 pm

Whiteguy wrote:
Sure, nothing to do with the point though....


It does if you know the origins of jimbo737
 
jimbo737
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Tue Feb 14, 2017 7:51 pm

Hey IPFreely:

That's precisely why you issue business news that you don't want people to linger or dwell upon Fridays. So no one will notice. I challenge you to tell me today, Tuesday, what the big business story was last Friday.

And that's the point. It's forgotten and without the benefit of a couple days in the office for analysts to tear the numbers apart before the next completely unrelated file appears on their desk.

People move on to other stories / files and the company issuing the news dodges a bullet.

You might assume that companies would choose to release poor earnings on Fridays. And the assumption appears to be correct, based on DellaVigna and Pollet examination of more than 100,000 earnings releases between January 1995 and June 2003.. They conclude that "Friday announcements are 20 percent more likely to present negative earnings than announcements on other weekdays." What's more, Friday earnings announcements "are about 50 percent more likely to fail to meet analyst expectations."

Enough said.

It's not about Southwest's growth, it's about how they leveraged their cost structure over a much shorter stage length, knowing that cost structure drops from there as stage length increases.

Southwest's 3Q 2016 casm was 11.73 cents vs United's 12.18 cents, but no one is going to make any claims that United's costs are approaching par to Southwest's when Southwest did it over an asl of 764 miles vs United's consolidated 1,493 miles, a difference of 729 miles.

Oddly, attempting to compare unit costs without taking into account wildly different stage lengths is laughed upon in the US, Europe and elsewhere, but the practice continues to be floated in Canada, usually with the explanation that Canada is somehow, "different" Pure poppycock.

AC's costs were "equal" to WJA's but AC required an ASL of 1,752 miles to do it. WJ did it over 907 miles. That's an enormous difference. 845 miles to be exact. Wider than the aforementioned gap between Southwest and United's ASL.

The questions you need to consider is:

1: What was AC's cost on a 907 mile stage length, and you can be guaranteed it wasn't anything close to the reported 12.49 cents a mile, (it was way higher), and
2: What was WJ's cost on a 1,752 mile stage length. Again, it wasn't anywhere near the average 12.5 cent cost they reported. It was way lower.

A huge cost discrepancy remains between the two carriers, and it tends to widen in the winter as AC reduces asm production without cutting fixed costs, not to mention the increased maintenance costs to deal with all the maintenance that is deferred out of peak summer operations.
 
jmt18325
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Tue Feb 14, 2017 8:13 pm

neromancer wrote:
767333ER wrote:
I think it's so funny how people are whining about 1" of seat pitch. The mainline cabins have 31" pitch in economy and the Rouge 767s have 30" pitch. The 1" isn't that huge. I will admit though that any less such as the 29" on the Rouge Airbus fleet is pushing it, but people don't seem to complain when they fly on European short hall jets that have it. If you ask me 30" pitch on a 767 with 18" wide seats that unfortunately hard is better than a 737 with 31" pitch and a 17" wide seat of similar comfort especially when both have the same type of IFE and service. The 767 overall is a better ride than the 737 though.


You must have fairly short legs.
I'm fairly tall (6'1" with a 32" inseam). The 31" seat pitch is barely tolerable for me. Losing an inch of legroom is huge. Losing two inches is practically unworkable to me.


I'm the same height as you. New slimline seats make it so that even 30" is relatively comfortable.
 
drgmobile
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Tue Feb 14, 2017 8:17 pm

Boeing744 wrote:
I was just browsing at some flights to Victoria in July and noticed that Air Canada's direct YYZ-YYJ flights have been switched to Rouge from May 1st onward.

At first it seems like the long-standing early flight at 6am has been switched to mid-day departure with a Rouge A319.

Into July it seems to go up to 2x Rouge with A321s and B763s. This would be a huge increase in capacity on this route.

On the one hand the switch to Rouge does not surprise me too much because Kelowna (which is a similar market and duration) has been Rouge for quite a while now. On the other hand, one might think that Victoria had some more premium (government) traffic.

Any thoughts on this big change?


In the Premium Rouge cabin on the narrowbodies, the product is virtually identical to mainline J. I actually find back of the cabin to be comparable also, but I am 5'8.
 
b6sea
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:57 pm

Dominion301 wrote:

YYJ is the only provincial/territorial capital not directly linked to YOW on at least a seasonal basis. No doubt this has everything to do with YYJ's distance from YOW, resulting in the high # of intermediary connection city options & # of connecting flight options there are (i.e. via YVR, YYC, YEG and YYZ). If YOW can support up to 3x weekly service to the small territorial capitals of YZF & YXY on Air North (which 4N's President in an article a few months ago called their 'best performing route last summer'), then surely there's demand for at least a 3x weekly summer-seasonal nonstop to YYJ. The problem is AC & WS have no incentive whatsoever to serve it given all the above-noted connection points. Couple that with the YOW Airport Authority not exactly having a reputation for innovative air service development, and at the YYJ end likely the same, it makes for the lack of a nonstop. Personally, I think Air North would be the exact airline the airport authorities should contact if the ever want a nonstop link between the two capitals or present this to one of the aspiring real ULCCs to take a hard look at summer-seasonal YOW-YYJ.



It's definitely possible that someone (probably AC) could make a 3x weekly, or even a daily YOW-YYJ service work (I'm assuming AC has mainline crews and aircraft based in YOW, but I could be wrong) and I'm sure if they believed the premium was there they would go for it. I don't doubt at all that it is a potentially viable route.

I think the comparison with YZF and YXY is probably not the best considering how remote those cities are, and I imagine Air North's aircraft can run half empty and still be profitable due to cargo, much like Alaska Airlines' routes in Alaska. There's no competition from rail, truck, or ship, so I bet the belly is full to the brim on each of those flights, where a YYJ flight would probably not be (or at least not at the same premium). Also, I imagine virtually all federal government offices for the Yukon and NW Territories are located in their respective capitals unlike BC where a lot of the federal government offices (RCMP Division HQ is in Surrey, Transport Canada in Vancouver, etc etc) are located in the Vancouver area. The exception is obviously military traffic from Esquimalt and a few other small offices in Victoria. Of course the offices in the YT and NWT are smaller, so the amount of traffic is also smaller too, thus potentially making my point moot.

I'm not sure Air North's business model (or aircraft) are geared to run passenger flights between metropolitan centers or to compete with the hub operations of WS and AC, I think providing cargo capacity to Whitehorse (and Yellowknife) is probably a lot more important to them. That's just a guess though.

Again, it seems to me that it comes down to the premiums people are willing to pay for the nonstop flight to YOW vs connecting in YVR, YYC, or YYZ. If there isn't enough government traffic that is willing to pay that premium, the business community in Victoria really isn't enough to pick up the slack, and that leaves a lot of price-sensitive leisure traffic to fill the rest of the plane, so the average of the two may just not factor out for AC (or WS).

That said, now that I've poo-pooed the idea, I would, personally, love to see a YOW-YYJ flight happen.
 
IPFreely
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Wed Feb 15, 2017 1:14 am

jimbo737 wrote:
Hey IPFreely:

That's precisely why you issue business news that you don't want people to linger or dwell upon Fridays. So no one will notice. I challenge you to tell me today, Tuesday, what the big business story was last Friday.

And that's the point. It's forgotten and without the benefit of a couple days in the office for analysts to tear the numbers apart before the next completely unrelated file appears on their desk.

People move on to other stories / files and the company issuing the news dodges a bullet.


Let's check to see if this theory holds water with AC.

Last four quarterly earnings announcements by Air Canada & WestJet:

Air Canada
Friday Feb 17, 2017
Monday Nov 7, 2016
Friday July 29, 2016
Friday April 29, 2016

Westjet
Tuesday, Feb 7, 2017
Tuesday Nov 1, 2016
Tuesday July 26, 2016
Tuesday May 3, 2016

Interesting. Westjet is consistent with all announcements -- good and bad -- made on Tuesday. AC is inconsistent but having 3 of 4 quarterly announcements made on Fridays is definitely not random. Now some might say they prefer big announcements on Friday. But their latest big announcement was a new livery, and that was announced on Thursday, Feb 9. So you are likely on to something with regard to AC here. Keep up the good work.
 
jimbo737
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Wed Feb 15, 2017 6:01 am

Livery announcements or route announcements don't impact the markets so that sort of thing can be released on a Tues, Weds or Thurs in order to maximize media coverage. If the news is good and you want to keep it exposed, release it mid week and hope that it isn't usurped by a major event.

Earnings announcements, especially when there is no monthly traffic data for analysts to chew on, are the only thing analysts and the media can latch on to.

If you want to minimize coverage, and there is only one reason to do that, stick to releasing the news on Friday's before long weekends.

How much real work gets done in your place of employment after about noon on a Friday before a long weekend?

Not much, I'll bet.
 
Dominion301
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Wed Feb 15, 2017 3:34 pm

b6sea wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:

YYJ is the only provincial/territorial capital not directly linked to YOW on at least a seasonal basis. No doubt this has everything to do with YYJ's distance from YOW, resulting in the high # of intermediary connection city options & # of connecting flight options there are (i.e. via YVR, YYC, YEG and YYZ). If YOW can support up to 3x weekly service to the small territorial capitals of YZF & YXY on Air North (which 4N's President in an article a few months ago called their 'best performing route last summer'), then surely there's demand for at least a 3x weekly summer-seasonal nonstop to YYJ. The problem is AC & WS have no incentive whatsoever to serve it given all the above-noted connection points. Couple that with the YOW Airport Authority not exactly having a reputation for innovative air service development, and at the YYJ end likely the same, it makes for the lack of a nonstop. Personally, I think Air North would be the exact airline the airport authorities should contact if the ever want a nonstop link between the two capitals or present this to one of the aspiring real ULCCs to take a hard look at summer-seasonal YOW-YYJ.



It's definitely possible that someone (probably AC) could make a 3x weekly, or even a daily YOW-YYJ service work (I'm assuming AC has mainline crews and aircraft based in YOW, but I could be wrong) and I'm sure if they believed the premium was there they would go for it. I don't doubt at all that it is a potentially viable route.

I think the comparison with YZF and YXY is probably not the best considering how remote those cities are, and I imagine Air North's aircraft can run half empty and still be profitable due to cargo, much like Alaska Airlines' routes in Alaska. There's no competition from rail, truck, or ship, so I bet the belly is full to the brim on each of those flights, where a YYJ flight would probably not be (or at least not at the same premium). Also, I imagine virtually all federal government offices for the Yukon and NW Territories are located in their respective capitals unlike BC where a lot of the federal government offices (RCMP Division HQ is in Surrey, Transport Canada in Vancouver, etc etc) are located in the Vancouver area. The exception is obviously military traffic from Esquimalt and a few other small offices in Victoria. Of course the offices in the YT and NWT are smaller, so the amount of traffic is also smaller too, thus potentially making my point moot.

I'm not sure Air North's business model (or aircraft) are geared to run passenger flights between metropolitan centers or to compete with the hub operations of WS and AC, I think providing cargo capacity to Whitehorse (and Yellowknife) is probably a lot more important to them. That's just a guess though.

Again, it seems to me that it comes down to the premiums people are willing to pay for the nonstop flight to YOW vs connecting in YVR, YYC, or YYZ. If there isn't enough government traffic that is willing to pay that premium, the business community in Victoria really isn't enough to pick up the slack, and that leaves a lot of price-sensitive leisure traffic to fill the rest of the plane, so the average of the two may just not factor out for AC (or WS).

That said, now that I've poo-pooed the idea, I would, personally, love to see a YOW-YYJ flight happen.


My thought regarding Air North as a candidate is:
a) they could add an additional weekly YOW-YXY flight during the summer months by routing it via YYJ and thus adding a new southern city and YOW-YYJ nonstop in the process. 4N for quite some time have already been selling seats on YLW-YVR-YLW 1-2x/week in each direction...mind you they view any sold seats as bonus top ups on the triangle routing up to YXY.
b) for the past few years a couple of times a year they've done one-off flights to YYJ.

As I said above AC & WS have zero incentive to offer a nonstop. Look how AC cut YOW-YYT this winter thanks to Porter suspending YYT for the winter. AC no longer had any incentive whatsoever to offer a nonstop between two non-hubs.

jimbo737 wrote:
Livery announcements or route announcements don't impact the markets so that sort of thing can be released on a Tues, Weds or Thurs in order to maximize media coverage. If the news is good and you want to keep it exposed, release it mid week and hope that it isn't usurped by a major event.

Earnings announcements, especially when there is no monthly traffic data for analysts to chew on, are the only thing analysts and the media can latch on to.

If you want to minimize coverage, and there is only one reason to do that, stick to releasing the news on Friday's before long weekends.

How much real work gets done in your place of employment after about noon on a Friday before a long weekend?

Not much, I'll bet.


Very true. It's no coincidence that AC's best quarter in the past year was the only one not announced on a Friday. Also, what other publicly traded airline in North America doesn't release monthly traffic statistics?
 
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767333ER
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Thu Feb 16, 2017 7:28 am

jimbo737 wrote:
Virtually every Rouge passenger flying on an ancient 767 from YYZ to YYJ that should long since been retired takes a passenger off an AC mainline YYZ-YYC-YYJ flight or an AC YYZ-YVR-YYJ flight


Air Canada's Rouge 767s are Buy and large significantly younger than WS's but of course you wouldn't point that out. And to add to that, AC is currently flying A321s to YYJ, but what you are suggesting would only be the case if there was no such flight. What you are suggesting is that virtually all ≈270 seats on the 763 would be filled by people that would be flying to YYJ via YYC or YVR which quite clearly is not the case as the currently operate an aircraft on that route that has ≈180 seats which is 3/4 of the capacity right there. And don't forget the BRAND NEW Rouge A321s that will also be running that route.

jimbo737 wrote:
Air Canada's casm is no where near WJ's casm in spite of the kook-aide that is being liberally distributed in Montreal suggesting that it is so.

jimbo737 wrote:
AC's costs were "equal" to WJA's but AC required an ASL of 1,752 miles to do it. WJ did it over 907 miles.


So in one reply you claim that their CASM is no where near WS's yet in the next you claim that it in fact is, but with a different ASL. While I get the point of what you were trying to say, you did contradict yourself.
Been on: 732 733 734 73G 738 752 763 A319 A320 A321 CRJ CR7 CRA/CR9 E145 E175 E190 F28 MD-82 MD-83 C172S P2006T
 
SpaceshipDC10
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Thu Feb 16, 2017 3:39 pm

longhauler wrote:
SpaceshipDC10 wrote:
On the link below it says AC operated three times daily last summer. What types were operating the route then?

One 120 seat A319 and one 146 seat A320 daily, with an additional 120 seat A319 5 times a week.


Alright, so this is an increase of 898 seats each week, or 36% more than during summer '16.
 
Dominion301
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Thu Feb 16, 2017 4:32 pm

SpaceshipDC10 wrote:
longhauler wrote:
SpaceshipDC10 wrote:
On the link below it says AC operated three times daily last summer. What types were operating the route then?

One 120 seat A319 and one 146 seat A320 daily, with an additional 120 seat A319 5 times a week.


Alright, so this is an increase of 898 seats each week, or 36% more than during summer '16.


A pretty significant increase, while simultaneously freeing up about 30 hours of mainline aircraft flying time daily for other work.
 
jimbo737
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Fri Feb 17, 2017 3:08 pm

A glance at Air Canada's 4th quarter 2016 numbers, released weeks after everyone else's, make it obvious why they issued them on a Friday prior to a long weekend when the markets and important media in the US and Canada are in hibernation for 3 days. The faster these numbers disappear from top of mind, the better.

And for anyone who still under the illusion Air Canada's cost structure is comparable to their principle competitor, in the immortal words of Steven Tyler, dream on.

AC's casm was 15.42 cents and they had to stretch their average sector length to 1,592 miles to get that. WJ's casm was 12.86 cents over a 895 mile average sector length. I'll bet it costs WJ no more than 11 cents a mile to operate a 1,592 mile sector, (roughly Toronto to Edmonton), a 40% cost advantage and AC's 9.5% rasm advantage doesn't begin to cover off that cost differential.

I predict there'll be more Rouge, flying everywhere before we see a lot less of it in a few years time, (or whenever fuel reverts to 81 cents, where it was just 3 short years ago).
 
jmt18325
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Fri Feb 17, 2017 3:14 pm

You realize that they're 'stretching' their average length because they're launching more long haul flying, I hope. It isn't a paper exercise.
 
jimbo737
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Fri Feb 17, 2017 3:22 pm

Oh...absolutely it is because of the longer flying. No question.

But inherent in that is the decline in unit costs because as everyone knows, it is a fundamental economic fact in the airline business, as stage length increase, unit costs decrease, (as do yields).

The only way to compare airline cost structures is to compare them on an equal stage length. If Air Canada's unit costs are 15.42 cents over a 1,592 mile sector, what would their principle competitors costs be over that same length of sector, knowing that it costs them 12.86 cents to fly 895 miles. It's going to be significantly less than 12.86 cents, thus further widening the true cost gap. It's called "stage length adjusted casm" and there is a ton of information on it on-line.

Air Canada narrows their cost gap when they maximize their flying, ie, in the 3rd quarter. That doesn't work for much of the rest of the year, with aircraft in maintenance and demand is greatly reduced. Even then, AC still operates what are, in essence, surplus aircraft, (virtually all of the Rouge fleet), throughout the winter.

As others have suggested, it's a bit like building your church for Easter Sunday. It works out great for Easter, but over the rest of the year? Not so much.

When B767-300's are operating 3 hour sectors on anything but positioning flights, there's probably a problem which will be evidenced by a collapse in rasm as seats are filled to generate revenue, any revenue, at fire sale prices. As they do this, it drags down the entire market, which is why Air Canada's numbers are so weak compared to the larger North American industry. No one else lost money after interest expense last quarter. No one came even close.

Even WJ, who's results are being impacted by all the excess capacity in the market, (rather than simply retiring the iron as other airlines do), had margins of 7% for the quarter, and WJ breaks even at 74.5% loads vs Air Canada at 81.5% loads. The US carriers are seeing huge numbers, and have attracted the attention of Warren Buffet because, unlike AC, they have capacity discipline and aren't flooding the market with growth, fundamentally underwritten by a 26% reduction in the price of the largest cost component of the business, jet fuel .

The rasm premium AC has does not negate the casm disadvantage. Every time WJ expands and knocks off another market like YUL-YQB or YUL-BOS, (currently with $4.50 per mile premium yields when their average yield is 19.4 cents), that rasm advantage gets eroded and eroded and eroded.

It's not easy to replace the profitability of those sorts of routes, when those profits already underwrite losses that are obviously occurring elsewhere in the network.

If there were an easy solution, they'd have already done it . The problem is, there are no easy solution. And trying to convince the world that by using the term "EBITDAR" 27x in your earnings release, thereby somehow trying to make it analogous with the word "profit" doesn't really cut it in my books.
Last edited by jimbo737 on Fri Feb 17, 2017 3:49 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
jmt18325
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Fri Feb 17, 2017 3:22 pm

Also, looking at the numbers, their income overall was up, and their GAAP adjusted income was slightly down from last year. That's disappointing, but consistent with what happened to Westjet.
 
jmt18325
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Fri Feb 17, 2017 3:24 pm

jimbo737 wrote:
Oh...absolutely it is because of the longer flying. No question.

But inherent in that is the decline in unit costs because as everyone knows. as stage length increase, unit costs decrease, (as do yields).

The only way to compare airline cost structures is to compare them on an equal stage length, ie if Air Canada's unit costs were 15.42 cents over a 1,592 mile sector, what would their principle competitors costs be over that same length of sector, knowing that it costs them 12.86 cents to fly 895 miles and unit costs drop as stage length increase.

The rasm premium AC has does not negate the casm disadvantage, and every time WJ expands an knocks off another market like YUL-YQB or YUL-BOS, where AC fares crash 65% or more, that rasm advantage gets eroded and eroded and eroded.



This isn't really the thread for this, but isn't narrow body flying less expensive than wide body flying? Air Canada was said to have similar costs to Westjet in terms of their narrow body network. No one ever said anything about their long haul network.
 
jimbo737
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Fri Feb 17, 2017 3:56 pm

If you listen to Air Canada, they'll come up with a rationalization that EVERYTHING they do is cost competitive with WestJet.

What they say and reality may be two different things. The only problem with that argument is the numbers simply don't support it. 15.42 cents a mile vs 12.86 cents a mile.

Last I heard, all those 787's operating long haul flights were "game changers" because of their dramatically lower unit costs compared to, for example, their 767's they replace, not to mention all the dramatic cost cutting programs they've incurred over the past 36 months.

Doesn't it strike you as odd that as AC claims to be "cost competitive" with WJ, their overall costs are clearly not? At the very least, if they are "cost competitive" with WJ across the regional, narrow body and now wide body fleets, what is driving that differential that results in that face rate cost gap of 20%?
 
jmt18325
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Fri Feb 17, 2017 3:59 pm

You avoided my question.
 
jimbo737
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Fri Feb 17, 2017 4:08 pm

That AC says their narrow body flying has similar costs to WJ?

My F350 has similar costs to my Smart Car, but only when I compare costs when I'm driving down hill.
 
jmt18325
Posts: 50
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Fri Feb 17, 2017 4:28 pm

jimbo737 wrote:
My F350 has similar costs to my Smart Car, but only when I compare costs when I'm driving down hill.



That sort of goes along with that I said, I think. Your F-350 costs more and more per passenger to operate.
 
CRJ900
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Fri Feb 17, 2017 6:31 pm

Maybe AC will switch flights back to mainline when the CS300 arrive? YYJ-YOW,YYJ-YHZ etc?
Come, fly the prevailing winds with me
 
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YULflyguy
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Re: AC changes Victoria (YYJ) to Rouge

Fri Feb 17, 2017 7:09 pm

ac7e7 wrote:
I am in Victoria every couple of weeks and find the loads to be 80%+. I find very little difference between Westjet and Rouge. I'm not sure what people want from their airlines?

I realize the "in" thing is for people to complain about Air Canada. But their reasons for hating them is mostly fluff. I fly both AC/rouge and Westjet extensively (weekly actually). There is very little difference between the two airlines from an economy seat or service standpoint. I find I get more value flying Air Canada because of upgrades and lounge access.

If the demand is there, AC will switch to mainline. There is likely more demand for mainline service to other markets than to Victoria.

If Air Canada flies a 777 to Victoria and drops prices to fill the aircraft, the haters would accuse them of trying to drive out the competition. There is no winning with them. In fact, I believe most AC haters don't even fly more than once a year. If people really hated them as much as you all claim they do, nobody would fly them. The numbers tell a different story. If the haters actually fly with them regularily, then shame on them. Do us all a favour and put your money where your mouth is.

One poster above said he will not pay for a 29" seat - no problem. Keep in mind that most airlines are reducing their seat pitch. Westjet will likely reduce it further once their shareholders start realizing their cost advantage has been erased.

If you dont like them, dont fly them. My favorite line when I read an AC complaint news story is "I'll never fly them again!" Whatever my friend - you probably fly once a decade so who cares? If you want first class service, buy a first class ticket. If not, take your seat in the back and amuse yourself for a few hours.


Bravo! Very well said....took the words right out of my mouth.

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