michman
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue May 30, 2017 12:56 am

ASQ400 wrote:

The last comment is true. Detroit has a decreasing population, low income, relatively high crime, and many of the manufacturing jobs are now in Mexico and China. The last is the reason why Donald Trump is President right now.


The city of Detroit constitutes a small part of DTW's catchment which is Southeast Michigan plus parts of Northwest Ohio and Southwest Ontario. It's easily over 5 million people, thus it is ridiculous to be entirely focused on Detroit and it's 672,000 residents. You clearly have little familiarity with the region and DTW's catchment.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue May 30, 2017 1:04 am

I'm not sure why there is such a fascination with a percieved lack of service on DTW-LHR.

1) DL heavily dominates DTW-based point-of-sale traffic to LHR
2) Every major market and every major hub in the US has non-stop service to LHR, so any connecting feed from these markets is based on price
3) Every 2nd and 3rd tier city that has hub connectivity already has existing single connection service to LHR so its competing on price
4) Southeastern Michigan predomintant major business do not have significant ties to London. Detroit is not a major financial center. The manufacturing/engineering/automotive based businesses for the most part do not have major offices/R&D centers in London. Instead there are much bigger ties to markets in Germany and Italy.
5) Skyteam connections are heavily favored to AMS & CDG.

So, despite the lore and allure of additional LHR service, DL has shown at legacy-carrier pricing, the load factors are not that high to really justify additional service.. Sure, demand could increase with lower prices but there is so much LHR service out there, the opportunity to stimulate connecting feed on either end is low.
 
ASQ400
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue May 30, 2017 1:11 am

michman wrote:
ASQ400 wrote:

The last comment is true. Detroit has a decreasing population, low income, relatively high crime, and many of the manufacturing jobs are now in Mexico and China. The last is the reason why Donald Trump is President right now.


The city of Detroit constitutes a small part of DTW's catchment which is Southeast Michigan plus parts of Northwest Ohio and Southwest Ontario. It's easily over 5 million people, thus it is ridiculous to be entirely focused on Detroit and it's 672,000 residents. You clearly have little familiarity with the region and DTW's catchment.

A region which is entirely encapsulated within the Rust Belt, and thus has many of those problems.
Although DTW definitely has a larger area (thanks in no small part to the de-hubbing of CLE), it's still nowhere near the big hubs as far as volume.
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ASQ400
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue May 30, 2017 1:13 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I'm not sure why there is such a fascination with a percieved lack of service on DTW-LHR.

1) DL heavily dominates DTW-based point-of-sale traffic to LHR
2) Every major market and every major hub in the US has non-stop service to LHR, so any connecting feed from these markets is based on price
3) Every 2nd and 3rd tier city that has hub connectivity already has existing single connection service to LHR so its competing on price
4) Southeastern Michigan predomintant major business do not have significant ties to London. Detroit is not a major financial center. The manufacturing/engineering/automotive based businesses for the most part do not have major offices/R&D centers in London. Instead there are much bigger ties to markets in Germany and Italy.
5) Skyteam connections are heavily favored to AMS & CDG.

So, despite the lore and allure of additional LHR service, DL has shown at legacy-carrier pricing, the load factors are not that high to really justify additional service.. Sure, demand could increase with lower prices but there is so much LHR service out there, the opportunity to stimulate connecting feed on either end is low.

I'd say that if DL left that market, BA could operate the route more efficiently. Sadly for the fanboys, DL is not leaving DTW-LHR AFAIK
TLV, BRU, ZRH, CDG, FRA, EWR, JFK, DEN, SFO, AUS, RNO, SEA, YYC, YYZ, IAH, ATL, IAD, DCA, ORD, SJC, SNA
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue May 30, 2017 3:30 am

The City of Detroit - proper represents <20% of the regions population and represents a far smaller proportion of the the regions GDP and also the regions air service demand.

All of these surveys, studies, and statistics that are cherry-picked don't necessarily tell the story of the full metropolitan region.

The reasons behind all of the byzantine political boundaries and the multiple decades worth of reasons of how we ended up where we are is a lot more than can be expressed in these forums.
 
iFlyDTW
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue May 30, 2017 3:53 pm

But we had British prior to the recession and the reason they left was because of the recession, I don't understand why nobody thinks they can't do it now. I think they can do it and they will do it. The Detroit Metro area is the largest city area in the US without BA I would think, a daily 777 could easily work. DL may control the market but they won't be in control of price if British came.
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ASQ400
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue May 30, 2017 5:14 pm

iFlyDTW wrote:
But we had British prior to the recession and the reason they left was because of the recession, I don't understand why nobody thinks they can't do it now. I think they can do it and they will do it. The Detroit Metro area is the largest city area in the US without BA I would think, a daily 777 could easily work. DL may control the market but they won't be in control of price if British came.

Breh, Detroit and most of its area haven't recovered from the recession
To fill even a 788 ex-DTW, BA would need to suck in traffic that connects through AMS and CDG today. In other words, break SkyTeam's base in the area
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PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue May 30, 2017 5:32 pm

Most of BA's aircraft, other the 763's are likely too premium-heavy for DTW, especially given the limited ability to capture much in the way of DTW-based premium traffic.
 
reasonable
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue May 30, 2017 5:39 pm

ASQ400 wrote:
Breh, Detroit and most of its area haven't recovered from the recession


How do you know? It doesn't seem like you live in the land of facts. Here's one mote of evidence that contradicts your uninformed statement:
Image

After the recession, recovery was second only to Dallas.
Image

This thread is most useful when it can parse out topics such as the market dynamics of DTW-LHR. Is there O&D data that somebody has available? If the market is strong, and Delta can't fill planes, does it come down to pricing and routing? That is an interesting question, and one worth discussion backed up by facts.

The WCAA apparently has expanded service to LHR as a primary goal. If so, they should expand their mandate or spawn an affiliated group that does nothing but drum up economic development for the markets they want to grow in...
 
kavok
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue May 30, 2017 5:41 pm

iFlyDTW wrote:
But we had British prior to the recession and the reason they left was because of the recession, I don't understand why nobody thinks they can't do it now. I think they can do it and they will do it. The Detroit Metro area is the largest city area in the US without BA I would think, a daily 777 could easily work. DL may control the market but they won't be in control of price if British came.


The reason BA left is partially due to the recession, but mostly due to Delta merging with NW. Delta is and has been much more competitive in defending its fortress hubs than NW was.
Simply put, at DTW, Delta would win the fare war between BA, and both parties know it. And as alluded to by previous posts, DTW doesn't generate enough demand from the British side to warrant the battle. So BA chooses not to fly DTW, thus DL maintains a monopoly on the route, thus fares remain high, thus there is a lot of leakage of Y pax to ORD and YYZ, and thus load factors are lower in comparison.
BA can make more money flying to non-DL fortress hubs, even though DTW is a much bigger market than some of their recent adds. And DL still makes plenty of money and on the DTW-LHR route from the front cabins and high Y fares, even though load factors are low. So basically, don't expect to see BA return soon.
 
kavok
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue May 30, 2017 5:49 pm

reasonable wrote:
ASQ400 wrote:
Breh, Detroit and most of its area haven't recovered from the recession


How do you know? It doesn't seem like you live in the land of facts. Here's one mote of evidence that contradicts your uninformed statement:
Image

The WCAA apparently has expanded service to LHR as a primary goal. If so, they should expand their mandate or spawn an affiliated group that does nothing but drum up economic development for the markets they want to grow in...


This chart sums up what so many don't understand about DTW. Unlike the rest of the USA, the real recession in DTW came around 2005-2008, which is about 3-4 years ahead of everyone else. So from 2005-2008 when the rest of the USA was doing well, Michigan was in a one state recession.

However from 2008 onward, the DTW economy has been doing quite well and the metro region has been growing in population (not as fast population wise as sunbelt cities, but growing).
 
klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue May 30, 2017 6:02 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I'm not sure why there is such a fascination with a percieved lack of service on DTW-LHR.

1) DL heavily dominates DTW-based point-of-sale traffic to LHR
2) Every major market and every major hub in the US has non-stop service to LHR, so any connecting feed from these markets is based on price
3) Every 2nd and 3rd tier city that has hub connectivity already has existing single connection service to LHR so its competing on price
4) Southeastern Michigan predomintant major business do not have significant ties to London. Detroit is not a major financial center. The manufacturing/engineering/automotive based businesses for the most part do not have major offices/R&D centers in London. Instead there are much bigger ties to markets in Germany and Italy.
5) Skyteam connections are heavily favored to AMS & CDG.

So, despite the lore and allure of additional LHR service, DL has shown at legacy-carrier pricing, the load factors are not that high to really justify additional service.. Sure, demand could increase with lower prices but there is so much LHR service out there, the opportunity to stimulate connecting feed on either end is low.



Because it is an underserved market even according to the WCAA. The problem is Detroit has two things working against it. The fact that Delta wants everything over ATL and that it can't out pace MSP as far as growth goes by to much because it doesn't want to anger the powers that be that it made promises too during the NWA merger. Detroit through all the economic times bad and good always had 2 daily flights to London so there is no question that at least in the summer mothers that this market can support that. While this market was probably over served last winter with 2 daily flights that is why the low load factor I would guess. I think that if this market wants to expand capacity I think it's going to have to look to someone else to expand it outside of skyteam for the reasons I stated above. BA is not coming so I would suspect that the WCAA starts knocking on Norwegians door. Remember there were times when DTW had 3 daily to London in the summer months and 2 in the winter. So yes at this point DTW-LON is an underserved market
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
johns624
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue May 30, 2017 6:02 pm

ASQ400 wrote:

The last comment is true. Detroit has a decreasing population, low income, relatively high crime, and many of the manufacturing jobs are now in Mexico and China. The last is the reason why Donald Trump is President right now.

There's much more to southeast Michigan than Detroit.
 
klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue May 30, 2017 6:04 pm

kavok wrote:
iFlyDTW wrote:
But we had British prior to the recession and the reason they left was because of the recession, I don't understand why nobody thinks they can't do it now. I think they can do it and they will do it. The Detroit Metro area is the largest city area in the US without BA I would think, a daily 777 could easily work. DL may control the market but they won't be in control of price if British came.


The reason BA left is partially due to the recession, but mostly due to Delta merging with NW. Delta is and has been much more competitive in defending its fortress hubs than NW was.
Simply put, at DTW, Delta would win the fare war between BA, and both parties know it. And as alluded to by previous posts, DTW doesn't generate enough demand from the British side to warrant the battle. So BA chooses not to fly DTW, thus DL maintains a monopoly on the route, thus fares remain high, thus there is a lot of leakage of Y pax to ORD and YYZ, and thus load factors are lower in comparison.
BA can make more money flying to non-DL fortress hubs, even though DTW is a much bigger market than some of their recent adds. And DL still makes plenty of money and on the DTW-LHR route from the front cabins and high Y fares, even though load factors are low. So basically, don't expect to see BA return soon.


BA did not leave because of the merger BA left because NWA was granted access to LHR and BA had better uses for that slot that Detroit at that time.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
ASQ400
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue May 30, 2017 6:42 pm

johns624 wrote:
ASQ400 wrote:

The last comment is true. Detroit has a decreasing population, low income, relatively high crime, and many of the manufacturing jobs are now in Mexico and China. The last is the reason why Donald Trump is President right now.

There's much more to southeast Michigan than Detroit.

Yes, Flint.
DTW's catchment area is in the Rust Belt, an area that hasn't made up lost growth like the rest of America
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reasonable
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue May 30, 2017 6:49 pm

kavok wrote:
The reason BA left is partially due to the recession, but mostly due to Delta merging with NW. Delta is and has been much more competitive in defending its fortress hubs than NW was.
Simply put, at DTW, Delta would win the fare war between BA, and both parties know it. And as alluded to by previous posts, DTW doesn't generate enough demand from the British side to warrant the battle. So BA chooses not to fly DTW, thus DL maintains a monopoly on the route, thus fares remain high, thus there is a lot of leakage of Y pax to ORD and YYZ, and thus load factors are lower in comparison.
BA can make more money flying to non-DL fortress hubs, even though DTW is a much bigger market than some of their recent adds. And DL still makes plenty of money and on the DTW-LHR route from the front cabins and high Y fares, even though load factors are low. So basically, don't expect to see BA return soon.


This is a great explanation. Thank you for contributing rather than generating noise.
 
iFlyDTW
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue May 30, 2017 9:29 pm

reasonable wrote:
kavok wrote:
The reason BA left is partially due to the recession, but mostly due to Delta merging with NW. Delta is and has been much more competitive in defending its fortress hubs than NW was.
Simply put, at DTW, Delta would win the fare war between BA, and both parties know it. And as alluded to by previous posts, DTW doesn't generate enough demand from the British side to warrant the battle. So BA chooses not to fly DTW, thus DL maintains a monopoly on the route, thus fares remain high, thus there is a lot of leakage of Y pax to ORD and YYZ, and thus load factors are lower in comparison.
BA can make more money flying to non-DL fortress hubs, even though DTW is a much bigger market than some of their recent adds. And DL still makes plenty of money and on the DTW-LHR route from the front cabins and high Y fares, even though load factors are low. So basically, don't expect to see BA return soon.


This is a great explanation. Thank you for contributing rather than generating noise.
You have valid points but I'm trying to understand why they wouldn't. I looked at DL and SkyTeam prices and I can't find much below $1,525 RT, in markets that have BA and DL like ATL, BOS and JFK you can find prices averaging $900 between the 3 airports. I feel like they could do fine with a 788, if the LHR point of sale is weak than they can easily connect people from DUB, BCN, DUS, BER, and other destinations that are in the top 20 for DTW international markets than you have a decently filled 788, on top of local people going to Europe and coming home. How about Africa connections? Middle East? Yes they're competing but I feel like BA could do it.
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iFlyDTW
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue May 30, 2017 9:32 pm

By the way, after a slow January passenger numbers for March are in and even though it's slim, pax numbers have already passed last year.
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compensateme
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed May 31, 2017 5:18 pm

ASQ400 wrote:
DTW's catchment area is in the Rust Belt, an area that hasn't made up lost growth like the rest of America


Amazingly, you continue to spew nonsense even after several posters have taken the time to provide facts to show you're wrong.

DTW's catchment is Metro Detroit; DTW has similar O/D to hubs like MSP & nearly twice that of those like CLT & SLC. Additionally, it generates similar local traffic & revenues as ORD does for AA & UA.

DTW's catchment is NOT the Midwest or Rust Belt. This isn't the 1980s or 1990s; the advert of the regional jet has made hubs less reliant on regional traffic -- DL itself pushes much of its Midwestern traffic via ATL. Ultimately, whether a passenger flies BWI-DTW/ATL/MSP/SLC-SFO is completely irrelevant to DL.

Also, it's pretty silly to suggest the closure of CLE has "helped" DTW. CLE produced just a small amount of connecting traffic, much of which was loyal to UA and the rest that were price sensitive and were absorbed via DTW / ORD / ATL / CLT / JFK-LGA / PHL / etc.

- - -

In another ongoing thread, multiple posters are speculating about another airline establishing a hub at CLT, yet in this thread (and related installments), people are pondering the death of DTW. Honestly, it goes to show the level of ignorance in these forums & the overall lack of facts presented on a.net.
Last edited by compensateme on Wed May 31, 2017 5:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
You're not the CEO; you were a menial aircraft support mechanic intern, and that was four years ago.
 
compensateme
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed May 31, 2017 5:28 pm

iFlyDTW wrote:
You have valid points but I'm trying to understand why they wouldn't. I looked at DL and SkyTeam prices and I can't find much below $1,525 RT, in markets that have BA and DL like ATL, BOS and JFK you can find prices averaging $900 between the 3 airports. I feel like they could do fine with a 788, if the LHR point of sale is weak than they can easily connect people from DUB, BCN, DUS, BER, and other destinations that are in the top 20 for DTW international markets than you have a decently filled 788, on top of local people going to Europe and coming home. How about Africa connections? Middle East? Yes they're competing but I feel like BA could do it.


BA won't relieve pressure on airfares. Take a look at FRA -- both DL & LH command about $3K in Economy & $10K in Business year-round if travel doesn't involve a Saturday night stay. What DTW needs is low cost competition (e.g. Icelandair, or even Spirit launching 321LR service several years from now).
You're not the CEO; you were a menial aircraft support mechanic intern, and that was four years ago.
 
ASQ400
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed May 31, 2017 5:36 pm

compensateme wrote:
ASQ400 wrote:
DTW's catchment area is in the Rust Belt, an area that hasn't made up lost growth like the rest of America


Amazingly, you continue to spew nonsense even after several posters have taken the time to provide facts to show you're wrong.

DTW's catchment is Metro Detroit; DTW has similar O/D to hubs like MSP & nearly twice that of those like CLT & SLC. Additionally, it generates similar local traffic & revenues as ORD does for AA & UA.

DTW's catchment is NOT the Midwest or Rust Belt. This isn't the 1980s or 1990s; the advert of the regional jet has made hubs less reliant on regional traffic -- DL itself pushes much of its Midwestern traffic via ATL. Ultimately, whether a passenger flies BWI-DTW/ATL/MSP/SLC-SFO is completely irrelevant to DL.

Also, it's pretty silly to suggest the closure of CLE has "helped" DTW. CLE produced just a small amount of connecting traffic, much of which was loyal to UA and the rest that were price sensitive and were absorbed via DTW / ORD / ATL / CLT / JFK-LGA / PHL / etc.

You're welcome to read the articles about post-dehubbing CLE. People actually do drive up to DATE nowadays, to avoid the hellhole of ORD.
I didn't say it is the Rust Belt, but that it is IN the Rust Belt. SE MI is actually one of the worst-hit parts of the Rust Belt, as you can see in DTW and FNT. These areas took a much worse hit than Chicago and the coasts, and their recovery, particularly in term of business growth, is pathetic compared to the coasts. The fact that wages in Detroit are recovering doesn't turn it into the Nexus of global civilization, and airlines obviously see that.
I would love it if the self-absorbed Detroit fanboys on this forum would see it too
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reasonable
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed May 31, 2017 6:01 pm

ASQ400 wrote:
DTW's catchment area is in the Rust Belt, an area that hasn't made up lost growth like the rest of America


This comment has the critical rigor of a failed reality tv contestant.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed May 31, 2017 6:15 pm

reasonable wrote:
ASQ400 wrote:
DTW's catchment area is in the Rust Belt, an area that hasn't made up lost growth like the rest of America


This comment has the critical rigor of a failed reality tv contestant.
lol
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Midwestindy
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed May 31, 2017 6:20 pm

compensateme wrote:
iFlyDTW wrote:
You have valid points but I'm trying to understand why they wouldn't. I looked at DL and SkyTeam prices and I can't find much below $1,525 RT, in markets that have BA and DL like ATL, BOS and JFK you can find prices averaging $900 between the 3 airports. I feel like they could do fine with a 788, if the LHR point of sale is weak than they can easily connect people from DUB, BCN, DUS, BER, and other destinations that are in the top 20 for DTW international markets than you have a decently filled 788, on top of local people going to Europe and coming home. How about Africa connections? Middle East? Yes they're competing but I feel like BA could do it.


BA won't relieve pressure on airfares. Take a look at FRA -- both DL & LH command about $3K in Economy & $10K in Business year-round if travel doesn't involve a Saturday night stay. What DTW needs is low cost competition (e.g. Icelandair, or even Spirit launching 321LR service several years from now).


Actually you are right, what is this obsession with BA, I feel like DTW should be more focussed on Icelandair/WoW/Norwegian rather than BA in order to really bring TATL prices down.
ATL BWI BOS CLT MDW ORD CVG DFW DAL DAB DEN DTW FLL RSW GNV BDL HNL IAH IND MCI LAS LAX SDF MEM MIA MKE MSP BNA EWR HVN MSY JFK LGA MCO SFB PHX PHL PVD RDU RAP RIC SLC STL CPS PIE SEA TPA DCA IAD
 
compensateme
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed May 31, 2017 6:21 pm

ASQ400 wrote:
You're welcome to read the articles about post-dehubbing CLE. People actually do drive up to DATE nowadays, to avoid the hellhole of ORD.
I didn't say it is the Rust Belt, but that it is IN the Rust Belt. SE MI is actually one of the worst-hit parts of the Rust Belt, as you can see in DTW and FNT. These areas took a much worse hit than Chicago and the coasts, and their recovery, particularly in term of business growth, is pathetic compared to the coasts. The fact that wages in Detroit are recovering doesn't turn it into the Nexus of global civilization, and airlines obviously see that.
I would love it if the self-absorbed Detroit fanboys on this forum would see it too


It's pretty obvious that you're a Google scholar. Local enplanements at DTW have recovered, despite DTW having amongst the highest average fares of any hub and limited LCC competition. Places like MSP & SLC, which have seen strong gains in population & large gains in LCC competition, failed to see disproportionate growth compared to DTW; the same can be said about places like CLT, which also featured a large amount of capacity dumped into it from its hub airline.

So please explain how DTW's recovery is "pathetic."
You're not the CEO; you were a menial aircraft support mechanic intern, and that was four years ago.
 
reasonable
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed May 31, 2017 8:11 pm

http://www.wcaa.us/Portals/WCAACorp/WCA ... port%20(CY)%20April%202017.pdf

Growth at DTW is pretty flat this year so far. We'll see what the May report shows, but highlights of the April report show:

-a big resurgence in LH YOY and YTD traffic compared to previous months in 2017
-growth in UA mainline (with net system growth modest)
-growth in NK (obvi) and F9
-5.2% international growth
-domestic declines for B6, AA mainline (as well as net system decline), and AS
-decline for AF YTD
-growth for RJ YTD
-AA is over twice the size of UA at DTW
-YOY/YTD decline in DL mainline domestic
-YOY growth in DL international

DTW seems like a healthy, but stagnant, market. Meaningful growth will only come through diversification of air service at DTW, and through stronger business ties to the international community throughout SE Michigan's economic sectors. Other than that, the homebody simpletons who populate much of the metropolitan area will not really make substantive contributions to growing profitable demand. Just reading the tea leaves here, but IN THE LONG RUN DTW will need to demonstrate and prove out a different value proposition to be safe in the DL network as a primary gateway hub.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed May 31, 2017 8:46 pm

SQ Cargo 747 is next to the NK hangar and VS is flying a 744 to ARN for those of you who spot or have an office at DTW.

I agree with the statement above, diversification in air service could fuel more growth, NK's new route should be a good addition, as well as AM's 2 new flights and AS new PDX flight, with DL increasing to 2 on some days, those may help but a huge resurgence will have to include an international LCC whether it is FI or WW (DY released an outline of future US ops, DTW wasn't there, so no priority), or Y4. They just need to be ready for DL to respond in a way.

The reason BA could do DTW, and I'm not doing this to be part of the banger-gang for BA, but Fiat's world HQ is in London now am I not correct? There is more auto ties to LHR than Germany since Daimler correct? If BA knows they can secure a contract with that, transport goods and fly them as premium pax, BA will have no problem.
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kavok
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed May 31, 2017 10:21 pm

iFlyDTW wrote:
reasonable wrote:
kavok wrote:
The reason BA left is partially due to the recession, but mostly due to Delta merging with NW. Delta is and has been much more competitive in defending its fortress hubs than NW was.
Simply put, at DTW, Delta would win the fare war between BA, and both parties know it. And as alluded to by previous posts, DTW doesn't generate enough demand from the British side to warrant the battle. So BA chooses not to fly DTW, thus DL maintains a monopoly on the route, thus fares remain high, thus there is a lot of leakage of Y pax to ORD and YYZ, and thus load factors are lower in comparison.
BA can make more money flying to non-DL fortress hubs, even though DTW is a much bigger market than some of their recent adds. And DL still makes plenty of money and on the DTW-LHR route from the front cabins and high Y fares, even though load factors are low. So basically, don't expect to see BA return soon.


This is a great explanation. Thank you for contributing rather than generating noise.
You have valid points but I'm trying to understand why they wouldn't. I looked at DL and SkyTeam prices and I can't find much below $1,525 RT, in markets that have BA and DL like ATL, BOS and JFK you can find prices averaging $900 between the 3 airports. I feel like they could do fine with a 788, if the LHR point of sale is weak than they can easily connect people from DUB, BCN, DUS, BER, and other destinations that are in the top 20 for DTW international markets than you have a decently filled 788, on top of local people going to Europe and coming home. How about Africa connections? Middle East? Yes they're competing but I feel like BA could do it.



For argument sake, lets say BA added a LHR-DTW flight. DL's first response would be to then also add capacity on DTW-LHR. The overall added capacity from both airlines would result in the market having too much supply, which means there aren't enough DTW to LHR passengers to fill the flights. Thus to fill the rest of the seats, the airlines have to rely on connecting traffic. For connections on the North American side, DL just temporarily reduces LHR capacity from one of their other hubs and sends that LHR bound traffic through DTW to fill their extra flight. BA can't really do this on the North American side, unless they try and use AA for their onward connections (which they wouldn't do).

On the European side, Delta is also at an advantage with connections. If you are connecting, the options would be to fly BA, go through immigration twice, and connect onto the one BA flight to DTW. Or you could fly KLM/AF, connect in CDG/AMS, only go through immigration once, and have seven different transatlantic flight times to pick from to better suit your needs. In addition, you connection airport is less likely to be delayed, and if AMS, easier to navigate. The only pax that really have an advantage to fly BA are pure LHR/DTW O-D pax based in London, and there aren't enough of those interested in going to DTW to justify the flight.
 
ASQ400
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed May 31, 2017 10:43 pm

kavok wrote:
iFlyDTW wrote:
reasonable wrote:

This is a great explanation. Thank you for contributing rather than generating noise.
You have valid points but I'm trying to understand why they wouldn't. I looked at DL and SkyTeam prices and I can't find much below $1,525 RT, in markets that have BA and DL like ATL, BOS and JFK you can find prices averaging $900 between the 3 airports. I feel like they could do fine with a 788, if the LHR point of sale is weak than they can easily connect people from DUB, BCN, DUS, BER, and other destinations that are in the top 20 for DTW international markets than you have a decently filled 788, on top of local people going to Europe and coming home. How about Africa connections? Middle East? Yes they're competing but I feel like BA could do it.



For argument sake, lets say BA added a LHR-DTW flight. DL's first response would be to then also add capacity on DTW-LHR. The overall added capacity from both airlines would result in the market having too much supply, which means there aren't enough DTW to LHR passengers to fill the flights. Thus to fill the rest of the seats, the airlines have to rely on connecting traffic. For connections on the North American side, DL just temporarily reduces LHR capacity from one of their other hubs and sends that LHR bound traffic through DTW to fill their extra flight. BA can't really do this on the North American side, unless they try and use AA for their onward connections (which they wouldn't do).

On the European side, Delta is also at an advantage with connections. If you are connecting, the options would be to fly BA, go through immigration twice, and connect onto the one BA flight to DTW. Or you could fly KLM/AF, connect in CDG/AMS, only go through immigration once, and have seven different transatlantic flight times to pick from to better suit your needs. In addition, you connection airport is less likely to be delayed, and if AMS, easier to navigate. The only pax that really have an advantage to fly BA are pure LHR/DTW O-D pax based in London, and there aren't enough of those interested in going to DTW to justify the flight.

DTW area to rest of England pax based on either side would also do well, but that's not enough traffic to sustain a BA flight to DTW
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compensateme
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed May 31, 2017 10:50 pm

reasonable wrote:
DTW seems like a healthy, but stagnant, market. Meaningful growth will only come through diversification of air service at DTW, and through stronger business ties to the international community throughout SE Michigan's economic sectors. Other than that, the homebody simpletons who populate much of the metropolitan area will not really make substantive contributions to growing profitable demand. Just reading the tea leaves here, but IN THE LONG RUN DTW will need to demonstrate and prove out a different value proposition to be safe in the DL network as a primary gateway hub.


Value proposition? It's very probable that DTW is the second or third most profitable hub in the DL network, and it will be quite awhile before that position changes,

LGA-JFK, SEA & LAX are currently seeing the lion's share of growth within the DL network and all are long-term commitments. Most industry insiders speculate that NYC generates low margins for DL (a belief even its competitors have recently acknowledged) while SEA hasn't quite achieved profitability yet, with LAX somewhere in between. Of course, DL perceives all three to be long-term commitments to its future success. If the industry hits a downward cycle in domestic travel soon, I'd expect that all three would face disproportionately deeper cuts than DTW, a contrast from a decade ago.

ASQ400 wrote:
DTW area to rest of England pax based on either side would also do well, but that's not enough traffic to sustain a BA flight to DTW


Still waiting for you to respond to my previous question...
Last edited by compensateme on Wed May 31, 2017 10:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
You're not the CEO; you were a menial aircraft support mechanic intern, and that was four years ago.
 
klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed May 31, 2017 10:50 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
compensateme wrote:
iFlyDTW wrote:
You have valid points but I'm trying to understand why they wouldn't. I looked at DL and SkyTeam prices and I can't find much below $1,525 RT, in markets that have BA and DL like ATL, BOS and JFK you can find prices averaging $900 between the 3 airports. I feel like they could do fine with a 788, if the LHR point of sale is weak than they can easily connect people from DUB, BCN, DUS, BER, and other destinations that are in the top 20 for DTW international markets than you have a decently filled 788, on top of local people going to Europe and coming home. How about Africa connections? Middle East? Yes they're competing but I feel like BA could do it.


BA won't relieve pressure on airfares. Take a look at FRA -- both DL & LH command about $3K in Economy & $10K in Business year-round if travel doesn't involve a Saturday night stay. What DTW needs is low cost competition (e.g. Icelandair, or even Spirit launching 321LR service several years from now).


Actually you are right, what is this obsession with BA, I feel like DTW should be more focussed on Icelandair/WoW/Norwegian rather than BA in order to really bring TATL prices down.



I have said this right from the start but it only falls on deaf ears and criticism . The WCAA needs to get on board with this and pursue one of these carriers to land in Detroit before this window closes like the window of opportunity already has for landing one of the ME3. But I suspect their loyalty to their main tenant Delta and protecting those $3000 fares for them will not allow this to happen anytime soon.
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ASQ400
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed May 31, 2017 11:01 pm

I can tell that it's painful when your city's hub is smaller than other hubs, and it sure hurts when people like me trash-talk your city. I get that DTW'ers get offended when I talk about your city being in the rust belt and not actually recovering from the recession.
The problem is that the hurt can't negate the truth. Your downtown is recovering, but DTW metro area is still in the dumps. The broader catchment area, whether defined strictly or broadly, contains cities in dismal situations and with no prospects. Look no further than Flint, 60 miles away, to see that grim picture. A lot of DTW's connecting traffic (at least traffic brought in by RJ's) comes from other parts of the Rust Belt.
Thus, it is only normal to expect that Detroit will have less service than SF, Dallas, or Atlanta. Those cities are in a better economic position, as are their broader areas. If Delta has to choose between two otherwise equal (or near equal) hubs, they will naturally choose the one that can get them better traffic from its area, and the natural connections. ATL and the deep south are more affluent than DTW and the midwest, so DL would rather add routes to Atlanta.
OK, now you're surely wondering why ORD is so successful. The answer is that ORD sucks in traffic with connections from everything between the Rockies and the Mississippi heading east, while offering a possible connection for East Coast travellers heading west. That's how midwest hubs normally work, except Delta is special: MSP and DTW split this niche. While ORD transfers passengers from every direction, MSP/DTW have to share that traffic between them. That results in stunted service for each, but perhaps a superior product for Delta as a whole.

So why is DTW "getting shafted by ATL?"
1. Detroit is still a poor city
2. DTW and MSP are "splitting a hub"
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klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed May 31, 2017 11:03 pm

compensateme wrote:
ASQ400 wrote:
You're welcome to read the articles about post-dehubbing CLE. People actually do drive up to DATE nowadays, to avoid the hellhole of ORD.
I didn't say it is the Rust Belt, but that it is IN the Rust Belt. SE MI is actually one of the worst-hit parts of the Rust Belt, as you can see in DTW and FNT. These areas took a much worse hit than Chicago and the coasts, and their recovery, particularly in term of business growth, is pathetic compared to the coasts. The fact that wages in Detroit are recovering doesn't turn it into the Nexus of global civilization, and airlines obviously see that.
I would love it if the self-absorbed Detroit fanboys on this forum would see it too


It's pretty obvious that you're a Google scholar. Local enplanements at DTW have recovered, despite DTW having amongst the highest average fares of any hub and limited LCC competition. Places like MSP & SLC, which have seen strong gains in population & large gains in LCC competition, failed to see disproportionate growth compared to DTW; the same can be said about places like CLT, which also featured a large amount of capacity dumped into it from its hub airline.

So please explain how DTW's recovery is "pathetic."



I have to agree compared to the other hubs in the Delta network the recovery of the DTW hub is pathetic and needs to be addressed by the WCAA. Since the bankruptcy of NWA this market has lost 200 flights a day and those have yet to return plus countless destinations and there are still destinations falling off at DTW while all the other hubs in the Delta system are getting notable additions. The airport has to go out there and start courting so carriers and bring some competition in this market to keep Delta honest price wise, growth wise and commitment wise. I do believe as hubs go DTW would be the first to be trimmed down to nothing come the next economic downturn as Delta has shown it is committed
to the other hubs much deeper than it is to Detroit.
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kavok
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed May 31, 2017 11:13 pm

compensateme wrote:
reasonable wrote:
DTW seems like a healthy, but stagnant, market. Meaningful growth will only come through diversification of air service at DTW, and through stronger business ties to the international community throughout SE Michigan's economic sectors. Other than that, the homebody simpletons who populate much of the metropolitan area will not really make substantive contributions to growing profitable demand. Just reading the tea leaves here, but IN THE LONG RUN DTW will need to demonstrate and prove out a different value proposition to be safe in the DL network as a primary gateway hub.


Value proposition? It's very probable that DTW is the second or third most profitable hub in the DL network, and it will be quite awhile before that position changes,

LGA-JFK, SEA & LAX are currently seeing the lion's share of growth within the DL network and all are long-term commitments. Most industry insiders speculate that NYC generates low margins for DL (a belief even its competitors have recently acknowledged) while SEA hasn't quite achieved profitability yet, with LAX somewhere in between. Of course, DL perceives all three to be long-term commitments to its future success. If the industry hits a downward cycle in domestic travel soon, I'd expect that all three would face disproportionately deeper cuts than DTW, a contrast from a decade ago.

ASQ400 wrote:
DTW area to rest of England pax based on either side would also do well, but that's not enough traffic to sustain a BA flight to DTW


Still waiting for you to respond to my previous question...


All good points. Just for clarification, when you say DTW is probably the second or third most profitable hub, I am assuming the other two that you are speculating as more profitable are ATL and MSP. I just find that intriguing, and while DL would probably never actually publicize the numbers, I am curious how DTW, MSP and ATL would rank. I would guess both MSP and DTW are very similar, just because their fortress hub roles in the DL network (and competition from other airlines) are very similar.

On a per flight basis, I have to believe DTW and MSP do much better profitability wise. ATL I believe would be less on a per flight basis, because they have a lot of lower profit flagship routes that get operated from headquarters. But because ATL has so many more flights, the total profit summation may be greater... I don't know. If someone has actual numbers, I would love to see them, but don't know if they are out there.
 
ASQ400
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed May 31, 2017 11:23 pm

compensateme wrote:
ASQ400 wrote:
You're welcome to read the articles about post-dehubbing CLE. People actually do drive up to DATE nowadays, to avoid the hellhole of ORD.
I didn't say it is the Rust Belt, but that it is IN the Rust Belt. SE MI is actually one of the worst-hit parts of the Rust Belt, as you can see in DTW and FNT. These areas took a much worse hit than Chicago and the coasts, and their recovery, particularly in term of business growth, is pathetic compared to the coasts. The fact that wages in Detroit are recovering doesn't turn it into the Nexus of global civilization, and airlines obviously see that.
I would love it if the self-absorbed Detroit fanboys on this forum would see it too


It's pretty obvious that you're a Google scholar. Local enplanements at DTW have recovered, despite DTW having amongst the highest average fares of any hub and limited LCC competition. Places like MSP & SLC, which have seen strong gains in population & large gains in LCC competition, failed to see disproportionate growth compared to DTW; the same can be said about places like CLT, which also featured a large amount of capacity dumped into it from its hub airline.

So please explain how DTW's recovery is "pathetic."

I'm talking about the damn city, not directly the airport.
Outside of downtown, Detroit has crumbling houses, patchy public transport, high crime, and all in all is stuck in the recession. The wider area contains places like Flint, which need no explanation.
That recovery, the recovery from the recession, is the pathetic one. I don't have stats for the airport, only your collective claim that it's getting shafted
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed May 31, 2017 11:37 pm

klm617 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
compensateme wrote:

BA won't relieve pressure on airfares. Take a look at FRA -- both DL & LH command about $3K in Economy & $10K in Business year-round if travel doesn't involve a Saturday night stay. What DTW needs is low cost competition (e.g. Icelandair, or even Spirit launching 321LR service several years from now).


Actually you are right, what is this obsession with BA, I feel like DTW should be more focussed on Icelandair/WoW/Norwegian rather than BA in order to really bring TATL prices down.



I have said this right from the start but it only falls on deaf ears and criticism . The WCAA needs to get on board with this and pursue one of these carriers to land in Detroit before this window closes like the window of opportunity already has for landing one of the ME3. But I suspect their loyalty to their main tenant Delta and protecting those $3000 fares for them will not allow this to happen anytime soon.
Don't forget tho to take these into account as to why an ME3 might take a little longer.

1) Laptop ban, that seems to be the current issue so EK and other ME carriers are experiencing the same issue, aside from RJ which because they provide such a good price people just don't care, EK would probably offer RT's around 1,200 to DXB and beyond.

2) Travel ban, another thing effecting how people get to the Middle East and US.

3) EK trimmed or eliminated markets. Losing a JFK, going less than daily in SFO or MCO makes those kind of airports a priority to restoring service, not to mention the service they've cut beyond the USA and Latin America, it's much deeper elsewhere.
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klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed May 31, 2017 11:44 pm

flymco753 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

Actually you are right, what is this obsession with BA, I feel like DTW should be more focussed on Icelandair/WoW/Norwegian rather than BA in order to really bring TATL prices down.



I have said this right from the start but it only falls on deaf ears and criticism . The WCAA needs to get on board with this and pursue one of these carriers to land in Detroit before this window closes like the window of opportunity already has for landing one of the ME3. But I suspect their loyalty to their main tenant Delta and protecting those $3000 fares for them will not allow this to happen anytime soon.
Don't forget tho to take these into account as to why an ME3 might take a little longer.

1) Laptop ban, that seems to be the current issue so EK and other ME carriers are experiencing the same issue, aside from RJ which because they provide such a good price people just don't care, EK would probably offer RT's around 1,200 to DXB and beyond.

2) Travel ban, another thing effecting how people get to the Middle East and US.

3) EK trimmed or eliminated markets. Losing a JFK, going less than daily in SFO or MCO makes those kind of airports a priority to restoring service, not to mention the service they've cut beyond the USA and Latin America, it's much deeper elsewhere.



I agree and that isn't changing anytime soon. Hence why the WCAA needed to push harder to get in on the ground floor but again that window is closed along with the hope of TK adding Detroit. When QR was throwing DTW out there the WCAA needed to force their hand and say to QR let's make it happen but that would of been well received by Delta.
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed May 31, 2017 11:46 pm

Lets discuss something here, AS and B6 are the only 2 airlines without a Midwest hub, and both will probably find that in the future. Do you think AS would split MSP and DTW as focus cities and try to punch DL back in the face after what they've done with SEA? Or B6 could build a relatively small focus out of DTW and offer some West-South connections, maybe SLC-TPA connection? I don't know! I'm trying to think positively here. DL and NK are hub carriers for DTW, it's evident WN has no interest in making something out of DTW, F9 surround DTW with focus cities, UA and AA are in ORD, so that leaves 2 other variables. Instead of bashing the idea and discussing why it won't happen or why it would fail, maybe try finding ideas of why it could work and why one of the two airlines would benefit from a small focus operation from DTW.
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed May 31, 2017 11:49 pm

klm617 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
klm617 wrote:


I have said this right from the start but it only falls on deaf ears and criticism . The WCAA needs to get on board with this and pursue one of these carriers to land in Detroit before this window closes like the window of opportunity already has for landing one of the ME3. But I suspect their loyalty to their main tenant Delta and protecting those $3000 fares for them will not allow this to happen anytime soon.
Don't forget tho to take these into account as to why an ME3 might take a little longer.

1) Laptop ban, that seems to be the current issue so EK and other ME carriers are experiencing the same issue, aside from RJ which because they provide such a good price people just don't care, EK would probably offer RT's around 1,200 to DXB and beyond.

2) Travel ban, another thing effecting how people get to the Middle East and US.

3) EK trimmed or eliminated markets. Losing a JFK, going less than daily in SFO or MCO makes those kind of airports a priority to restoring service, not to mention the service they've cut beyond the USA and Latin America, it's much deeper elsewhere.



I agree and that isn't changing anytime soon. Hence why the WCAA needed to push harder to get in on the ground floor but again that window is closed along with the hope of TK adding Detroit. When QR was throwing DTW out there the WCAA needed to force their hand and say to QR let's make it happen but that would of been well received by Delta.
I've never flown an ME carrier nor do I plan to, but QR doesn't put their money where their mouth is, they'll say that they want to fly somewhere to scare DL, they won't actually do it. Etihad has been done growing for a while, and TK IMHO would more than likely shaft RJ. The only thing is, from data pulled in the MIDT, RJ should try 4x weekly as opposed to 2x weekly.
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ASQ400
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed May 31, 2017 11:57 pm

flymco753 wrote:
Lets discuss something here, AS and B6 are the only 2 airlines without a Midwest hub, and both will probably find that in the future. Do you think AS would split MSP and DTW as focus cities and try to punch DL back in the face after what they've done with SEA? Or B6 could build a relatively small focus out of DTW and offer some West-South connections, maybe SLC-TPA connection? I don't know! I'm trying to think positively here. DL and NK are hub carriers for DTW, it's evident WN has no interest in making something out of DTW, F9 surround DTW with focus cities, UA and AA are in ORD, so that leaves 2 other variables. Instead of bashing the idea and discussing why it won't happen or why it would fail, maybe try finding ideas of why it could work and why one of the two airlines would benefit from a small focus operation from DTW.

I'm more than a little skeptical. AS seems like its main goal is to turn the West Coast into as much of a fortress as they can. We've been seeing more and more rapid growth in SFO as they consolidate a strong hub there, and their presence in the secondary CA airports (SAN, SJC, OAK) is large as well. Once they're done expanding at SFO, I would expect them to expand SEA, PDX, or SAN before going East.
B6 is a more optimistic prospect, since they have interest in a wider network, but I'm not sure if they'll go to Detroit. I'm sure CLE would be happy to treat any airline generously if they hub there, and CVG is only a Delta hub on paper. DTW, on the other hand, is a strong Delta hub and appreciates that (even if some DTW-based internet folk don't).
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Midwestindy
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Thu Jun 01, 2017 12:04 am

flymco753 wrote:
Lets discuss something here, AS and B6 are the only 2 airlines without a Midwest hub, and both will probably find that in the future. Do you think AS would split MSP and DTW as focus cities and try to punch DL back in the face after what they've done with SEA? Or B6 could build a relatively small focus out of DTW and offer some West-South connections, maybe SLC-TPA connection? I don't know! I'm trying to think positively here. DL and NK are hub carriers for DTW, it's evident WN has no interest in making something out of DTW, F9 surround DTW with focus cities, UA and AA are in ORD, so that leaves 2 other variables. Instead of bashing the idea and discussing why it won't happen or why it would fail, maybe try finding ideas of why it could work and why one of the two airlines would benefit from a small focus operation from DTW.


I think if we are thinking positively AS could make a focus city/hublet work in DTW better than B6 could. Outside of some recent adds (DL-SNA/UA-SFO) most of DTW's traffic to the west coast is on ulcc's or DL, therefore AS could add some competition with DL on routes like DTW- SAN, LAX, SFO, SLC, SNA, SJD and could even add routes like SJC and HNL. However, the east coast is already pretty well served from DTW so that would be the difficult part.
ATL BWI BOS CLT MDW ORD CVG DFW DAL DAB DEN DTW FLL RSW GNV BDL HNL IAH IND MCI LAS LAX SDF MEM MIA MKE MSP BNA EWR HVN MSY JFK LGA MCO SFB PHX PHL PVD RDU RAP RIC SLC STL CPS PIE SEA TPA DCA IAD
 
kavok
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Thu Jun 01, 2017 12:39 am

Midwestindy wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
Lets discuss something here, AS and B6 are the only 2 airlines without a Midwest hub, and both will probably find that in the future. Do you think AS would split MSP and DTW as focus cities and try to punch DL back in the face after what they've done with SEA? Or B6 could build a relatively small focus out of DTW and offer some West-South connections, maybe SLC-TPA connection? I don't know! I'm trying to think positively here. DL and NK are hub carriers for DTW, it's evident WN has no interest in making something out of DTW, F9 surround DTW with focus cities, UA and AA are in ORD, so that leaves 2 other variables. Instead of bashing the idea and discussing why it won't happen or why it would fail, maybe try finding ideas of why it could work and why one of the two airlines would benefit from a small focus operation from DTW.


I think if we are thinking positively AS could make a focus city/hublet work in DTW better than B6 could. Outside of some recent adds (DL-SNA/UA-SFO) most of DTW's traffic to the west coast is on ulcc's or DL, therefore AS could add some competition with DL on routes like DTW- SAN, LAX, SFO, SLC, SNA, SJD and could even add routes like SJC and HNL. However, the east coast is already pretty well served from DTW so that would be the difficult part.



I just don't see it for either AS or B6. Neither are big enough to sustain the cash losses required to fight DL to build a hub at DTW. Plus, neither would have the international connection feed that DL has, and NK already does a good job serving the domestic low cost crowd. I just don't see what niche market AS or B6 could serve from DTW, and while the competition would be nice for DTW pax, I don't see the path to profitability for B6 or AS. Sorry to be the downer, but that is how I see it.
 
klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Thu Jun 01, 2017 12:46 am

kavok wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
Lets discuss something here, AS and B6 are the only 2 airlines without a Midwest hub, and both will probably find that in the future. Do you think AS would split MSP and DTW as focus cities and try to punch DL back in the face after what they've done with SEA? Or B6 could build a relatively small focus out of DTW and offer some West-South connections, maybe SLC-TPA connection? I don't know! I'm trying to think positively here. DL and NK are hub carriers for DTW, it's evident WN has no interest in making something out of DTW, F9 surround DTW with focus cities, UA and AA are in ORD, so that leaves 2 other variables. Instead of bashing the idea and discussing why it won't happen or why it would fail, maybe try finding ideas of why it could work and why one of the two airlines would benefit from a small focus operation from DTW.


I think if we are thinking positively AS could make a focus city/hublet work in DTW better than B6 could. Outside of some recent adds (DL-SNA/UA-SFO) most of DTW's traffic to the west coast is on ulcc's or DL, therefore AS could add some competition with DL on routes like DTW- SAN, LAX, SFO, SLC, SNA, SJD and could even add routes like SJC and HNL. However, the east coast is already pretty well served from DTW so that would be the difficult part.



I just don't see it for either AS or B6. Neither are big enough to sustain the cash losses required to fight DL to build a hub at DTW. Plus, neither would have the international connection feed that DL has, and NK already does a good job serving the domestic low cost crowd. I just don't see what niche market AS or B6 could serve from DTW, and while the competition would be nice for DTW pax, I don't see the path to profitability for B6 or AS. Sorry to be the downer, but that is how I see it.



I agree DTW would be a great little focus city for AS. The big question is can the WCAA market it to them as what they need. Keep in mind except for BOS most of the competition DL has on those EAR coast routes is by RJ so an AS mainline flight would be much more attractive.
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reasonable
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Thu Jun 01, 2017 12:50 am

compensateme wrote:
Value proposition? It's very probable that DTW is the second or third most profitable hub in the DL network, and it will be quite awhile before that position changes,


It may be in a while, but that's why I stressed the long run. If metro Detroit continues its journey out of the shadow of the 20th century, the value of DTW as a hub could be fundamentally different than it is now, or was in, say, 2005.
 
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Thu Jun 01, 2017 1:17 am

flymco753 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
Don't forget tho to take these into account as to why an ME3 might take a little longer.

1) Laptop ban, that seems to be the current issue so EK and other ME carriers are experiencing the same issue, aside from RJ which because they provide such a good price people just don't care, EK would probably offer RT's around 1,200 to DXB and beyond.

2) Travel ban, another thing effecting how people get to the Middle East and US.

3) EK trimmed or eliminated markets. Losing a JFK, going less than daily in SFO or MCO makes those kind of airports a priority to restoring service, not to mention the service they've cut beyond the USA and Latin America, it's much deeper elsewhere.



I agree and that isn't changing anytime soon. Hence why the WCAA needed to push harder to get in on the ground floor but again that window is closed along with the hope of TK adding Detroit. When QR was throwing DTW out there the WCAA needed to force their hand and say to QR let's make it happen but that would of been well received by Delta.
I've never flown an ME carrier nor do I plan to, but QR doesn't put their money where their mouth is, they'll say that they want to fly somewhere to scare DL, they won't actually do it. Etihad has been done growing for a while, and TK IMHO would more than likely shaft RJ. The only thing is, from data pulled in the MIDT, RJ should try 4x weekly as opposed to 2x weekly.



But the reality is QR has added every city it said it would except Detroit.
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Midwestindy
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Thu Jun 01, 2017 1:42 am

kavok wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
Lets discuss something here, AS and B6 are the only 2 airlines without a Midwest hub, and both will probably find that in the future. Do you think AS would split MSP and DTW as focus cities and try to punch DL back in the face after what they've done with SEA? Or B6 could build a relatively small focus out of DTW and offer some West-South connections, maybe SLC-TPA connection? I don't know! I'm trying to think positively here. DL and NK are hub carriers for DTW, it's evident WN has no interest in making something out of DTW, F9 surround DTW with focus cities, UA and AA are in ORD, so that leaves 2 other variables. Instead of bashing the idea and discussing why it won't happen or why it would fail, maybe try finding ideas of why it could work and why one of the two airlines would benefit from a small focus operation from DTW.


I think if we are thinking positively AS could make a focus city/hublet work in DTW better than B6 could. Outside of some recent adds (DL-SNA/UA-SFO) most of DTW's traffic to the west coast is on ulcc's or DL, therefore AS could add some competition with DL on routes like DTW- SAN, LAX, SFO, SLC, SNA, SJD and could even add routes like SJC and HNL. However, the east coast is already pretty well served from DTW so that would be the difficult part.



I just don't see it for either AS or B6. Neither are big enough to sustain the cash losses required to fight DL to build a hub at DTW. Plus, neither would have the international connection feed that DL has, and NK already does a good job serving the domestic low cost crowd. I just don't see what niche market AS or B6 could serve from DTW, and while the competition would be nice for DTW pax, I don't see the path to profitability for B6 or AS. Sorry to be the downer, but that is how I see it.


If you look at what I was replying to, the idea was not to explain why it would fail, the idea was to explain why and how it could work. Anyone can sit on here and write for hours on why a hub wouldn't work in a thousand different cities, but that isn't very productive.
ATL BWI BOS CLT MDW ORD CVG DFW DAL DAB DEN DTW FLL RSW GNV BDL HNL IAH IND MCI LAS LAX SDF MEM MIA MKE MSP BNA EWR HVN MSY JFK LGA MCO SFB PHX PHL PVD RDU RAP RIC SLC STL CPS PIE SEA TPA DCA IAD
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Thu Jun 01, 2017 1:44 am

klm617 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
klm617 wrote:


I agree and that isn't changing anytime soon. Hence why the WCAA needed to push harder to get in on the ground floor but again that window is closed along with the hope of TK adding Detroit. When QR was throwing DTW out there the WCAA needed to force their hand and say to QR let's make it happen but that would of been well received by Delta.
I've never flown an ME carrier nor do I plan to, but QR doesn't put their money where their mouth is, they'll say that they want to fly somewhere to scare DL, they won't actually do it. Etihad has been done growing for a while, and TK IMHO would more than likely shaft RJ. The only thing is, from data pulled in the MIDT, RJ should try 4x weekly as opposed to 2x weekly.



But the reality is QR has added every city it said it would except Detroit.
Honestly, EK would be the glass slipper to DTW's options for the Arabian Peninsula, and the India area. DXB is a much more appealing airport to connect through as opposed to DOH. If you have a long connection somewhere why not go out and experience what the city has to offer and I think people would choose DXB over DOH. On top of that it would make DL mad which isn't a great thing.
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Thu Jun 01, 2017 1:50 am

Also, I'd rather much we discuss serious reasons why certain routes are viable/not viable, will happen/not happen, and back it up with facts.

AA will add LAX eventually, it's not IF it's WHEN and it could be on an A321 or 738. Currently, DTW is the largest market without AA to LAX, there's only one legacy carrier on the route (DL) and an LCC (NK). I think the current issue is AA trying to find a time that would cater well to the market without interfering severely with DL and fitting that into their already hectic schedule at LAX, gate space at a given time may be an issue.
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Puissance
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Thu Jun 01, 2017 3:39 am

One of the reasons that flights to Europe are so high is that LH and to a lesser extent DL are filling their planes with competitive tickets to India. India only costs about $100 more per ticket from DTW than Eastern and Midwestern hub cities. This is made easier by no ME3 carrier in Detroit. It allows both LH and DL to keep high prices to Europe in Detroit. AC also stays high. American occasionally dumps excess capacity in Detroit. I bought Xmas tickets DTW-CLT-LHR for $725, but those tickets were all snapped up in four hours. AA only sold them from DL hub cities. LH has tons of connections in FRA with Indian airlines for cities it doesn't serve itself.
 
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Thu Jun 01, 2017 4:01 am

This whole thread got really stupid again for a little bit there but maybe can get back to something with a little bit of reality.

The overall problem I see on this thread, and also on many of the other a.net threads that turn into a whine-fest about perceived lack of air service, perceived lack of air service development, or perceived feeling their respective airport is being shunning is the understanding of what drives air service growth in 2017.

Too many people on a.net get too emotional over the thought of "exotic" airline liveries, widebodies, "exotic" routes, prestigue routes (that they will never use) but somehow makes them feel better about themselves, or aspects that aren't relevant to the business drivers in the industry.

Whether you like it or not, airlines are for-profit entities. They will do what is best for their business. They will employ a variety of strategies to achieve their operational and financial objectives. This at times may be at odds with what consumers or advocates of a local market think

People put too much blame on airport management for the perceived lack of air service development. They can only work with in the confines of the resources they are given and have to look after the interests of all stakeholders as well. They can't generate demand at a given price point that doesn't exist. They have to balance the requirements of their long-term tenants and customers versus the need for future business development.

People tend to view this too much as black and white or an either/or situation.

A few other points that we've mentioned in other posts all over the place:

LHR - There is more than sufficient supply (seats) to capture the demand at legacy-carrier pricing. Anyone can fill a plane to Europe in peak summer, but its the other 10 months of the year that determine the overall profitability and viability of the route. There could be more demand of a lower-cost carrier were to enter the market with lower fares to stimulate the market. BA isn't going to change that dynamic, and they have the issue of too many larger and/or premium-heavy aircraft other than really a 763 that could serve the market.

ATL - DL's ATL mega-hub is built on the ability to run a large-scale connecting operation using predominantly large narrow-body aircraft 160-200 seats. This uses lower CASM aircraft to move large volumes of people across a hub in a large O&D market. Simply point, DL can move a lot of people and have a huge number of flights to cover the fixed costs of the large hub operaiton

DTW & MSP - while ATL may be the largest overall profit, it has previously been determine that MSP & DTW have some of the higest profit margins in the industry. DL achieves this by keeping capacity relatively low and changing higher fares for such limited capacity in balance with demand.

B6/AS focus cities / hubs - there really is no scenario where this is becomes realistic. Not sure why some on a.net thing this is viable idea.

I guess I just get tired since people argue this thread on both ends.

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