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flymco753
Posts: 992
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2016 2:09 am

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Mon Mar 27, 2017 6:46 pm

On the bright side Aeromexico comes in just a few days, wish I could be there for the inaugural. Only bad thing is I did a proxy booking for the first week for MEX and the plane is empty. Should the flights continue to look like this, AM will be gone in no time.
Whether you're here on business, returning home, or visiting our world class attractions, welcome to Orlando and Central Florida...
 
iFlyDTW
Posts: 223
Joined: Fri Aug 12, 2016 3:33 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Mon Mar 27, 2017 6:58 pm

flymco753 wrote:
On the bright side Aeromexico comes in just a few days, wish I could be there for the inaugural. Only bad thing is I did a proxy booking for the first week for MEX and the plane is empty. Should the flights continue to look like this, AM will be gone in no time.
It's metal neutral, why do we need Aeromexico? Nothing has changed, MEX is still a monopoly route. If NK was more interested in Mexico additions I would say DTW to MEX but thats not what were looking at right now.
Home of the "Bare Fare" /// Banana Plane Republic
 
iFlyDTW
Posts: 223
Joined: Fri Aug 12, 2016 3:33 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Mon Mar 27, 2017 7:01 pm

flymco753 wrote:
The one interesting thing about DTW is a lot of people fly NK and are loyal to it. NK fits in well, I'm actually glad for DTW that there's a dedicated LCC. I went back and pulled some numbers on some routes that a previous poster said would work for NK, I put the, in order as to which I can see happening for NK. I'll start by posting year round predictions than seasonal probabilities from greatest to least likely due to PDEW, growth, and overall making sense.

Year round:
SAN 321S probably DTW's largest monopoly route, AS wont do it.
EWR 321S LGA can and will stay, EWR is one of the largest DTW markets with no LCC.
BNA 32S Large growth, medium yield, Q2 2016 shows 738 PDEW daily.
CLT 320 Legacy dominant, decent PDEW, dowgauge by both AA and DL.
STL 320 Surprisingly high PDEW, again medium yield, moderate growth.
AUS 32S Good growth, monopoly, growth in tourism market, good use for LCC.
RDU 32S Growth stable, monopoly, would make sense over other airlines.
JAX 320 Even off peak travel around 200 pax, currently monopolized on CR7.

Seasonal:
BDL 319 summer leisure increases, monopolized, yields not low, could cater to both ends
DAB 32S winter demand is solid, no interest by other carriers, targeted for air service
PHX 320 winter demand could speak for an NK but with F9 it will be difficult.
PDX 32S summer travel warrants another flight, a densely configured bus could work
PUJ, MBJ, PVR 320 a weekend flight wouldn't be bad
I agree with it all, this is a good list of possibilities. I hope at least one of these cities on this list comes soon, you never know.
Home of the "Bare Fare" /// Banana Plane Republic
 
klm617
Posts: 1248
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Mon Mar 27, 2017 7:19 pm

iFlyDTW wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
On the bright side Aeromexico comes in just a few days, wish I could be there for the inaugural. Only bad thing is I did a proxy booking for the first week for MEX and the plane is empty. Should the flights continue to look like this, AM will be gone in no time.
It's metal neutral, why do we need Aeromexico? Nothing has changed, MEX is still a monopoly route. If NK was more interested in Mexico additions I would say DTW to MEX but thats not what were looking at right now.



Metal neutral maybe but it gives the customer a choice weather they want enhanced level of service that Aeromeico provides of if you want that you're just another number service that Delta provides. I'll take Aeromexico Thank you.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
hjulicher
Posts: 679
Joined: Wed Feb 02, 2005 2:26 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Mon Mar 27, 2017 7:25 pm

Doesn't anyone think that the LH 744 on FRA-DTW is a vote of confidence for the Detroit market? It's quite a large capacity bump (premium too)!

@KLM617: You can fly LH to FRA direct from DTW and get even better service than what KLM offers!
LH 442
 
flymco753
Posts: 992
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2016 2:09 am

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Mon Mar 27, 2017 8:59 pm

klm617 wrote:
iFlyDTW wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
On the bright side Aeromexico comes in just a few days, wish I could be there for the inaugural. Only bad thing is I did a proxy booking for the first week for MEX and the plane is empty. Should the flights continue to look like this, AM will be gone in no time.
It's metal neutral, why do we need Aeromexico? Nothing has changed, MEX is still a monopoly route. If NK was more interested in Mexico additions I would say DTW to MEX but thats not what were looking at right now.



Metal neutral maybe but it gives the customer a choice weather they want enhanced level of service that Aeromeico provides of if you want that you're just another number service that Delta provides. I'll take Aeromexico Thank you.
The only thing AM is offering that's better than DL is meals throughout the cabin. Other than that, no IFE, no WIFI since it's an AM 73G.
Whether you're here on business, returning home, or visiting our world class attractions, welcome to Orlando and Central Florida...
 
johns624
Posts: 1474
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:09 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:23 pm

flymco753 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
iFlyDTW wrote:
It's metal neutral, why do we need Aeromexico? Nothing has changed, MEX is still a monopoly route. If NK was more interested in Mexico additions I would say DTW to MEX but thats not what were looking at right now.



Metal neutral maybe but it gives the customer a choice weather they want enhanced level of service that Aeromeico provides of if you want that you're just another number service that Delta provides. I'll take Aeromexico Thank you.
The only thing AM is offering that's better than DL is meals throughout the cabin. Other than that, no IFE, no WIFI since it's an AM 73G.
No, no, no, you just don't understand. It's better simply because it isn't Delta. Besides, he gets to take pictures of planes with different colored tails.
 
11725Flyer
Posts: 712
Joined: Mon May 30, 2016 4:51 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:34 pm

I think DL would prefer the poster in question fly on AM. (You know who you are, right?)
 
flymco753
Posts: 992
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:35 pm

johns624 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
klm617 wrote:


Metal neutral maybe but it gives the customer a choice weather they want enhanced level of service that Aeromeico provides of if you want that you're just another number service that Delta provides. I'll take Aeromexico Thank you.
The only thing AM is offering that's better than DL is meals throughout the cabin. Other than that, no IFE, no WIFI since it's an AM 73G.
No, no, no, you just don't understand. It's better simply because it isn't Delta. Besides, he gets to take pictures of planes with different colored tails.
:sly:
Whether you're here on business, returning home, or visiting our world class attractions, welcome to Orlando and Central Florida...
 
alfa164
Posts: 1873
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:04 pm

11725Flyer wrote:
I think DL would prefer the poster in question fly on AM. (You know who you are, right?)

I think any airline would prefer for him/her/it to fly on some other carrier... ;)
 
flymco753
Posts: 992
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2016 2:09 am

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:10 pm

All seriousness, what can DTW do now? I mean YYZ, ORD and PIT are seeing decent quantities of DTW catchment passengers. WW and FI are obviously off the table, I would guess DY is the last option, at least the MAX can't make it from LGW-ORD.
Whether you're here on business, returning home, or visiting our world class attractions, welcome to Orlando and Central Florida...
 
alfa164
Posts: 1873
Joined: Sat Oct 06, 2012 2:47 am

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:10 pm

flymco753 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
Well we can scratch WOW Air off the list they just announced ORD. I guess if Detroit travelers who want decent fares from Detroit to Europe are still blessed with a four hour drive to ORD or YYZ. This airport really amazes me at it's lack of ability to attract anything outside of what Delta wants to put in this market.
At this point, DTW is virtually screwed when it comes to leakage. With WOW adding ORD, that puts DTW between ORD and PIT. FI does ORD and YYZ, other airlines are the same. While I hope passenger numbers continue to increase internationally at DTW, it's going to be very hard because every presumable option is at YYZ or ORD.

Detroit Metro Population: 4,296,250 people

Chicago Metro Population: 9,400,000 people

Of course, that will only be of interest to people who are interested in facts... :roll:
 
klm617
Posts: 1248
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:17 pm

hjulicher wrote:
Doesn't anyone think that the LH 744 on FRA-DTW is a vote of confidence for the Detroit market? It's quite a large capacity bump (premium too)!

@KLM617: You can fly LH to FRA direct from DTW and get even better service than what KLM offers!


If it was a 747-8 then yes I would see it as an upgrade but the 744 is the oldest plane in the fleet I just think the needed a place for these old birds so they sent it to Detroit. I would have been more impressed with s 346 or a plit sending one A330 to MUC and one A330 to FRA so again the 744 is not really an upgrade we got it once in the dead of winter so I don't think the placement of this aircraft really is intended to up capacity,. As far as the LH nonstop the only problem is I am a skymiles member and as far as pricing DL and LH are in the same price range but believe me I have thought long and hard about switching to United's milageplus. Because yes LH's nonstop is far better than DL and I have taken it before when the was a big price difference.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
globalcabotage
Posts: 424
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 10:42 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:29 pm

DTW: At least you have DL as the hub airline. I would take that over UA or AA any day. You also have nonstop to NGO. Not many in North America or Europe can say that. Not bad for a metro are less than 1/2 the size of the 800 lb gorilla 280 miles west!
 
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ikolkyo
Posts: 877
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:37 pm

klm617 wrote:
hjulicher wrote:
Doesn't anyone think that the LH 744 on FRA-DTW is a vote of confidence for the Detroit market? It's quite a large capacity bump (premium too)!

@KLM617: You can fly LH to FRA direct from DTW and get even better service than what KLM offers!


If it was a 747-8 then yes I would see it as an upgrade but the 744 is the oldest plane in the fleet I just think the needed a place for these old birds so they sent it to Detroit. I would have been more impressed with s 346 or a plit sending one A330 to MUC and one A330 to FRA so again the 744 is not really an upgrade we got it once in the dead of winter so I don't think the placement of this aircraft really is intended to up capacity,. As far as the LH nonstop the only problem is I am a skymiles member and as far as pricing DL and LH are in the same price range but believe me I have thought long and hard about switching to United's milageplus. Because yes LH's nonstop is far better than DL and I have taken it before when the was a big price difference.


LH 744 doesn't seem bad at all even if it is the oldest plane in the fleet, LH keeps their aircraft very well maintained. The A343s are also of similar age.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXRd1_bk3v4
 
klm617
Posts: 1248
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:52 pm

alfa164 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
Well we can scratch WOW Air off the list they just announced ORD. I guess if Detroit travelers who want decent fares from Detroit to Europe are still blessed with a four hour drive to ORD or YYZ. This airport really amazes me at it's lack of ability to attract anything outside of what Delta wants to put in this market.
At this point, DTW is virtually screwed when it comes to leakage. With WOW adding ORD, that puts DTW between ORD and PIT. FI does ORD and YYZ, other airlines are the same. While I hope passenger numbers continue to increase internationally at DTW, it's going to be very hard because every presumable option is at YYZ or ORD.

Detroit Metro Population: 4,296,250 people

Chicago Metro Population: 9,400,000 people

Of course, that will only be of interest to people who are interested in facts... :roll:



Thank you so much for posting these numbers they even tell the story better as to how this market is so underserved. As you can tell the Chicago metro area is a little bit more than double that of Detroit but yet gets almost four times the amount of traffic through it every year. That being said with the numbers you provided if there are 8 weekly flights on the ORD-KEF route Detroit could surely support 3 weekly according to your numbers. So thank you for these numbers and proving in yet another way how underserved this market is.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
johns624
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue Mar 28, 2017 12:04 am

Somebody could move to ORD and then he could constantly rant about UA's lousy service and all the weather related delays every winter that we don't get in DTW.
 
globalcabotage
Posts: 424
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 10:42 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue Mar 28, 2017 12:36 am

Compare DTW to similar sized cities flights and you will be pleasantly surprised.

Why is it that DTW can't accept what you have? Chicago is an Alpha city with many Fortune 500 companies. DTW also has to compete with YYZ, NYC, DC area, and that DL hub in ATL.

Be happy the hub is there. DTW could look like CLE, CVG, STL, MEM, BNA, etc in the region. Especially with MSP and ATL not too far away.

I wish UA would have merged with DL. Then NW could have merged with US. Are you better off now or with Doug Parker?
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue Mar 28, 2017 12:59 am

The klm617 butt-hurt thread lives on.
 
alfa164
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue Mar 28, 2017 1:52 am

johns624 wrote:
Somebody could move to ORD and then he could constantly rant about UA's lousy service and all the weather related delays every winter that we don't get in DTW.

Just wait till he/she/it tries to get on a UA flight in leggings... ;)
 
compensateme
Posts: 2012
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2009 4:17 am

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue Mar 28, 2017 3:35 am

globalcabotage wrote:
Be happy the hub is there. DTW could look like CLE, CVG, STL, MEM, BNA, etc in the region. Especially with MSP and ATL not too far away.
...
I wish UA would have merged with DL. Then NW could have merged with US. Are you better off now or with Doug Parker?


One of the reasons I support this thread continuing, despite the one-man sideshow, is to educate the ignorant.

DTW has similar local traffic to hubs like MSP and significantly more than SLC, CLT, etc. The irony with your statement is that the DTW hub would've been better off had NW merged with US, since US doesn't have a hub on the scale of ATL to compete with. Of course, the DL acquisition was a win for DTW-based consumers, since the in-flight product is superior to that of what a merged NW-US would offer.

That said, mergers and acquisitions are about money, not about giving fan boys fantasies about their favorite airline to pleasure themselves to.

alfa164 wrote:
Just wait till he/she/it tries to get on a UA flight in leggings... ;)


The irony is that it wasn't that long ago (or at least it doesn't seem like it) that UA required passholders to dress up...
You're not the CEO; you were a menial aircraft support mechanic intern, and that was four years ago.
 
michman
Posts: 734
Joined: Sat Dec 23, 2006 9:51 am

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue Mar 28, 2017 4:54 am

compensateme wrote:

One of the reasons I support this thread continuing, despite the one-man sideshow, is to educate the ignorant.

..


It's pretty much a two-man sideshow at this point. One who can't stand DL and WCAA, and another who can't stand DTW. The endless sparring has become a bore.
 
reasonable
Posts: 65
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue Mar 28, 2017 4:14 pm

Passengers are down this year so far. AA, DL, AF, LH, RJ, and SW all are dragging compared to 2016. The same was true in January. It would be very interesting to hear this put into perspective by somebody from WCAA. Since they already said they expect 2017 to be another growth year, I wonder what they're tracking. Curiously, VS was showing a lot of growth compared to 2016, but now it's gone.

http://www.wcaa.us/Portals/WCAACorp/WCAA%20Documents/PDFs/AviationStatistics/Monthly_Aviation/2017/Full_Report_(CY)_February_2017.pdf
Last edited by reasonable on Tue Mar 28, 2017 4:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
flymco753
Posts: 992
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2016 2:09 am

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue Mar 28, 2017 4:22 pm

reasonable wrote:
Passengers are down this year so far. AA, DL, AF, LH, RJ, and SW all are dragging compared to 2016. The same was true in January. It would be very interesting to hear this put into perspective by somebody from WCAA. Since they already said they expect 2017 to be another growth year, I wonder what they're tracking. Curiously, VS was showing a lot of growth compared to 2016, but now it's gone.

http://www.wcaa.us/Portals/WCAACorp/WCA ... Report_(CY)_February_2017.pdf
Removed comment because it made absolutely no sense.
Whether you're here on business, returning home, or visiting our world class attractions, welcome to Orlando and Central Florida...
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 6380
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue Mar 28, 2017 4:49 pm

A few things to consider with the data for those months that has to be taken into consideration when looking at year-over-year comps.

1) In Jan 2016, the 1st fell on a Friday, and the 3-days of New Years weekend, which includes the full post-New Years end-of-holiday week travel fell into the month of January. In January 2017, the 1st fell on a Sunday, which changed some of the heavier holiday-related travel days in to which month they fell.

2) In Feb 2016, it was a leap year which included 29 days versus Feb 2017 which as 28 days. This alone could account for up to a 3.5% variance within the month of Feb based on days of travel. In fact, based on the data I think that Feb 2017 numbers are up across the board versus Feb 2016 if you normalize based on calendar days in the month.

These traffic figures encompass the slowest overall travel period of the year; post-holiday January through mid-Feb/Presidents weekend. Airlines have continued to be more aggressive at adjusting capacity vs. demand and reducing capacity during the weakest times of the year. So, you can't really make much out of these minor changes.

Add in the fact that this data is confounded by operating carrier and its unknown how many seats were actually offered during the period, these numbers just reflect passenger enplanements.
 
flymco753
Posts: 992
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2016 2:09 am

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue Mar 28, 2017 5:23 pm

I've done some calculations on DTW's LHR service.

2016: between VS and DL there were 1,308,160 seats
2017: Delta only will end up operating 759,200 seats
O&D from DTW to LON on the DTW end is about 50,000 pax in 2016
Connections and local travel direct to London in 2015 was 185,147 an increase of 2.5% from 2014
I've calculated 1/3 of locals from DTW use ORD and YQG, YYZ for alternative travels to LON. I think the real PDEW would be almost 75,000.

With these numbers I've predicted another entrant into the DTW-LON market is not viable unless they're a low cost carrier, in this case a 3x weekly 787 on DY. BA doesn't have enough to justify DTW flights to London. With DL at 10x weekly it still is too many seats to local people ratio. I do not see another entrant in this market.
Whether you're here on business, returning home, or visiting our world class attractions, welcome to Orlando and Central Florida...
 
reasonable
Posts: 65
Joined: Mon Jun 27, 2016 2:27 am

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue Mar 28, 2017 5:37 pm

flymco753 wrote:
I've done some calculations on DTW's LHR service.

2016: between VS and DL there were 1,308,160 seats
2017: Delta only will end up operating 759,200 seats


Where is this coming from? 759,200 is over 2,000 seats a day.
 
compensateme
Posts: 2012
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2009 4:17 am

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue Mar 28, 2017 6:02 pm

flymco753 wrote:
The only thing AM is offering that's better than DL is meals throughout the cabin. Other than that, no IFE, no WIFI since it's an AM 73G.


A couple comments:
- The few times I've flown DTW/MEX, DL has offered meal service in Economy. It is not tray service, but rather the same packaged snack that is served on long-haul flights (e.g. a micro-sandwich, small bag of chips and a chocolate).
- Ameromexico does offer IFE via overhead TV monitors. DL has historically operated DTW/MEX with 319/320 configured without any IFE whatsoever(although this has obviously changed very recently).
- Ameromexico offers unlimited, free alcohol in Economy -- a triumph to many that prevails over PTVs, WIFI, etc. A couple beers and mixed drink/glass of wine on a late afternoon flight to MEX isn't unreasonable and would run north of $20 on DL. Plus, AM has better beer.

alfa164 wrote:
Detroit Metro Population: 4,296,250 people

Chicago Metro Population: 9,400,000 people

Of course, that will only be of interest to people who are interested in facts... :roll:


...except how much long-haul service does ORD offe -- in relative to its local boardings and population -- compared to DTW? Hint: a lot more. People who are truly interested in facts would acknowledge that.

Reality is, ORD has sufficient low-cost, long-haul service. Good luck to them, but there are other markets that could probably do better.

An analogy: I've consulted with oodles of small businesses over the past several years and it never ceases to amaze me how many chase what they perceive to the California gold rush (high density population, wealth, etc.). Of course, nearly ail have failed, overcome by high costs & intense competition -- imagine if they would've given consideration to NC, GA, KS, etc. Of course, doesn't stop the next company from trying.

flymco753 wrote:
I've done some calculations on DTW's LHR service.


Might want to try again...
You're not the CEO; you were a menial aircraft support mechanic intern, and that was four years ago.
 
kavok
Posts: 125
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue Mar 28, 2017 6:25 pm

alfa164 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
Well we can scratch WOW Air off the list they just announced ORD. I guess if Detroit travelers who want decent fares from Detroit to Europe are still blessed with a four hour drive to ORD or YYZ. This airport really amazes me at it's lack of ability to attract anything outside of what Delta wants to put in this market.
At this point, DTW is virtually screwed when it comes to leakage. With WOW adding ORD, that puts DTW between ORD and PIT. FI does ORD and YYZ, other airlines are the same. While I hope passenger numbers continue to increase internationally at DTW, it's going to be very hard because every presumable option is at YYZ or ORD.

Detroit Metro Population: 4,296,250 people

Chicago Metro Population: 9,400,000 people

Of course, that will only be of interest to people who are interested in facts... :roll:



Be careful what facts you use, especially if they are slightly misleading. The problem with MSAs is, for example, DTWs MSA number doesn't even include Ann Arbor, which is only 20 miles down I-94. CSA population is a better number to use, and includes cities like AnnArbor that are functionally suburbs of the larger metro areas.

For comparison, some other CSAs (2015 numbers):
Chicago's CSA was 9.92 Million
DC/Baltimore was 9.63 Million
SF Bay was 8.71 Million

Houston was 6.86 Million
Atlanta was 6.36 Million
Detroit+Toledo was 5.97 Million
Detroit alone was 5.32 Million
Seattle was 4.60 Million
Mpls/St Paul was 3.87 Million

St. Louis was 2.92 Million
Pittsburgh was 2.65 Million
Charlotte was 2.58 Million
Salt Lake was 2.47 Million
Cincinnati was 2.22 Million
 
flymco753
Posts: 992
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2016 2:09 am

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue Mar 28, 2017 7:21 pm

flymco753 wrote:
I've done some calculations on DTW's LHR service.

2016: between VS and DL there were 1,308,160 seats
2017: Delta only will end up operating 759,200 seats
O&D from DTW to LON on the DTW end is about 50,000 pax in 2016
Connections and local travel direct to London in 2015 was 185,147 an increase of 2.5% from 2014
I've calculated 1/3 of locals from DTW use ORD and YQG, YYZ for alternative travels to LON. I think the real PDEW would be almost 75,000.

With these numbers I've predicted another entrant into the DTW-LON market is not viable unless they're a low cost carrier, in this case a 3x weekly 787 on DY. BA doesn't have enough to justify DTW flights to London. With DL at 10x weekly it still is too many seats to local people ratio. I do not see another entrant in this market.
Huge calculation error, shows you what kind of grade I got in math,
2016: between VS and DL there were 186,880 seats (512 daily, 3584 weekly, 186,880)
2017: DL only 140,608 seats by years end (2704 weekly, 140,608)
O&D from DTW end to LON is exactly 47780.
In 2015, local and connecting pax direct to LON was 185,147 and increase of 2.5% from 2014
Calculations are 1/3 of locals from DTW use ORD and YQG, YYZ for alternative travels to LON, which could place O&D on the DTW end at almost 75,000.

Even after some revisions, I don't think BA is a viable option for DTW, assuming we use 47,780 as how many people from Detroit travel to London, the other side is probably considerably less, I would say about 5,000 maybe, it only increases 47,780 to 52780. DTW is well served to London, so BA is definitely out of the question, but 3x weekly on a DY 787 I think it could work.

The cheapest fares from DTW are from Tue 25Apr to Tue 2May at $730 with a double connection in BOS and DUB on B6 and EI. Nonstops average about $1,100
Fares from YQG stick around at about $750 all of the time with one easy stop in YYZ.
YYZ fares average about $500
ORD fares average about $1,000 amongst all airlines.

Outcome, DL would put BA in a choke hold and make them pass out if they came to DTW because BA from surrounding airports seems to be matched or matching their hub carriers.
Whether you're here on business, returning home, or visiting our world class attractions, welcome to Orlando and Central Florida...
 
klm617
Posts: 1248
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed Mar 29, 2017 12:36 am

kavok wrote:
alfa164 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
At this point, DTW is virtually screwed when it comes to leakage. With WOW adding ORD, that puts DTW between ORD and PIT. FI does ORD and YYZ, other airlines are the same. While I hope passenger numbers continue to increase internationally at DTW, it's going to be very hard because every presumable option is at YYZ or ORD.

Detroit Metro Population: 4,296,250 people

Chicago Metro Population: 9,400,000 people

Of course, that will only be of interest to people who are interested in facts... :roll:



Be careful what facts you use, especially if they are slightly misleading. The problem with MSAs is, for example, DTWs MSA number doesn't even include Ann Arbor, which is only 20 miles down I-94. CSA population is a better number to use, and includes cities like AnnArbor that are functionally suburbs of the larger metro areas.

For comparison, some other CSAs (2015 numbers):
Chicago's CSA was 9.92 Million
DC/Baltimore was 9.63 Million
SF Bay was 8.71 Million

Houston was 6.86 Million
Atlanta was 6.36 Million
Detroit+Toledo was 5.97 Million
Detroit alone was 5.32 Million
Seattle was 4.60 Million
Mpls/St Paul was 3.87 Million

St. Louis was 2.92 Million
Pittsburgh was 2.65 Million
Charlotte was 2.58 Million
Salt Lake was 2.47 Million
Cincinnati was 2.22 Million



And here we have even more evidence of how the Detroit market is underserved compared to other cities of comparable size and their choice as far as airline service goes.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
globalcabotage
Posts: 424
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 10:42 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed Mar 29, 2017 1:09 am

If you add Kenishow (sp), WI and NW Indiana, Chicagoland is over 10.5M people. Let's compare apples to apples. DTW fanboys must subscribe to MSNBC and only the facts DTW wants to hear.

I live in the DFW area and wish we had more international airlines, but we have the massive AA that keeps airlines out. DTW, you have DL that does the same thing.

Outside of JFK, which is unique to the US, how many international airlines serve DL hubs? In that, how many are not in Sky Team? Not many.

I know DTW fanboys love DTW, but do honest, realistic comparisons.

Wow is in PIT, but PIT does not have a DL hub. Wow is going to ORD, but the bigger market is split 4 ways (UA, AA, WN, others). Yes, FI is there, but is full service. Wow will be the DY ORD doesn't have, yet.

Please accept the fact that DTW is in pretty good shape. You survived the fate of CVG, MEM, STL, BNA, and to a lesser extent CMH.

Quit complaining and stop hijacking every thread. When Phuket to the US is not served, does not mean "why not DTW" should be posted. It's as if 15 year olds are running the DTW forum.
 
klm617
Posts: 1248
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed Mar 29, 2017 1:34 am

globalcabotage wrote:

I live in the DFW area and wish we had more international airlines, but we have the massive AA that keeps airlines out. DTW, you have DL that does the same thing. .



Excuse me how can you even say that with a hub carrier that is fully committed to growing the DFW hub not to mention you have KE,LH,BA,QR,QF,EK,EY,AC,AM,JL,AV,KX,WS,VOLARIS and INTERJET what more do you want you can't even compare that to DTW with LH,RJ,AC,AF and AM. You have 2 skyteam members there that don't even serve the Detroit hub to our 0 oneworld members serving Detroit talk about calling the kettle black and you want more OMG let me get my violin out.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
kavok
Posts: 125
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:09 am

globalcabotage wrote:
If you add Kenishow (sp), WI and NW Indiana, Chicagoland is over 10.5M people. Let's compare apples to apples. DTW fanboys must subscribe to MSNBC and only the facts DTW wants to hear.

I live in the DFW area and wish we had more international airlines, but we have the massive AA that keeps airlines out. DTW, you have DL that does the same thing.

Outside of JFK, which is unique to the US, how many international airlines serve DL hubs? In that, how many are not in Sky Team? Not many.

I know DTW fanboys love DTW, but do honest, realistic comparisons.

Wow is in PIT, but PIT does not have a DL hub. Wow is going to ORD, but the bigger market is split 4 ways (UA, AA, WN, others). Yes, FI is there, but is full service. Wow will be the DY ORD doesn't have, yet.

Please accept the fact that DTW is in pretty good shape. You survived the fate of CVG, MEM, STL, BNA, and to a lesser extent CMH.

Quit complaining and stop hijacking every thread. When Phuket to the US is not served, does not mean "why not DTW" should be posted. It's as if 15 year olds are running the DTW forum.


You know if you actually checked your facts, you'd have seen the Chicago CSA figure provided of 9.9mil does in fact include Kenosha and NW Indiana. So it is a very valid comparison.

There is no question Chicago is bigger, but the point is size wise Detroit as a region is much more comparable population wise to Atlanta, Seattle, etc., which all managed to survive dehubing as well.
 
compensateme
Posts: 2012
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2009 4:17 am

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:35 am

globalcabotage wrote:
I live in the DFW area and wish we had more international airlines, but we have the massive AA that keeps airlines out. DTW, you have DL that does the same thing.


DFW has international service from 15 foreign airlines; please explain to me how AA "keeps airlines out."

Please accept the fact that DTW is in pretty good shape. You survived the fate of CVG, MEM, STL, BNA, and to a lesser extent CMH.


Please stop comparing DTW to CVG, MEM, STL, BNA and CMH; DTW has more than twice the amount of local traffic as the largest airport on that list.

Quit complaining and stop hijacking every thread. When Phuket to the US is not served, does not mean "why not DTW" should be posted. It's as if 15 year olds are running the DTW forum.


You're referencing a single poster. YOU are hijacking this thread and there's nothing wrong with a group of DTW-based posters pondering the future of their airport, or discussing why the market is often ignored. As I've mentioned many times... funny how it's perfectly acceptable to start a "next airline / next service to DFW thread" but if you DARE mention DTW, you'll receive a perpetual supply of 'look at CVG ... you know the airport that at its peak generated less than a quarter of the revenue as DTW.... DTW is very lucky."

Wow is in PIT, but PIT does not have a DL hub. Wow is going to ORD, but the bigger market is split 4 ways (UA, AA, WN, others). Yes, FI is there, but is full service. Wow will be the DY ORD doesn't have, yet.


Have you flown FI? It's hardly full-service and is indeed a LCC -- not an ULCC, but definitely a LCC. Not a coincidence the lowest fares from DTW -> Europe this summer are combinations of multiple tariffs,one generally involving FI (in plain English, you're paying for a DL RT from DTW-IAD/BOS-DTW, then FI from IAD-Europe-BOS).,
You're not the CEO; you were a menial aircraft support mechanic intern, and that was four years ago.
 
klm617
Posts: 1248
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed Mar 29, 2017 12:56 pm

With the announcement o KE and DL signing a JV and Detroit being their being the only Asian gateway without KE and DL service to ICN and being marketed as Delta's primary Asian gateway for the eastern US we will se the level of commitment that skyteam has in the Detroit market as to weather they increase seats here of stand by their plan to reduce capacity when they go from the from the 744 to the A350. If KE doesn't add Detroit the writing will be on the wall as to the relevance of this market in the future of the Delta network. Look for ATL-ICN to be the first international A350 route.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
flymco753
Posts: 992
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2016 2:09 am

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed Mar 29, 2017 1:13 pm

klm617 wrote:
With the announcement o KE and DL signing a JV and Detroit being their being the only Asian gateway without KE and DL service to ICN and being marketed as Delta's primary Asian gateway for the eastern US we will se the level of commitment that skyteam has in the Detroit market as to weather they increase seats here of stand by their plan to reduce capacity when they go from the from the 744 to the A350. If KE doesn't add Detroit the writing will be on the wall as to the relevance of this market in the future of the Delta network. Look for ATL-ICN to be the first international A350 route.
350 first route was already slated to be DTW-PVG, the 350 will cover the 3 747 routes to Asia and probably HKG. I think it's highly likely DTW will get KE because of the connection opportunities for both ends.
Whether you're here on business, returning home, or visiting our world class attractions, welcome to Orlando and Central Florida...
 
kavok
Posts: 125
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed Mar 29, 2017 1:33 pm

flymco753 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
With the announcement o KE and DL signing a JV and Detroit being their being the only Asian gateway without KE and DL service to ICN and being marketed as Delta's primary Asian gateway for the eastern US we will se the level of commitment that skyteam has in the Detroit market as to weather they increase seats here of stand by their plan to reduce capacity when they go from the from the 744 to the A350. If KE doesn't add Detroit the writing will be on the wall as to the relevance of this market in the future of the Delta network. Look for ATL-ICN to be the first international A350 route.
350 first route was already slated to be DTW-PVG, the 350 will cover the 3 747 routes to Asia and probably HKG. I think it's highly likely DTW will get KE because of the connection opportunities for both ends.


With the JV, I would be optimistic that DTW-ICN gets an additional daily flight, but would guess that it would be operated on DL metal. Here is why:

As part of the JV, DL and KE are going to divvy up the transPac flights with each carrier flying about half of the routes. So then the question becomes which routes make the most sense to be operated by DL, and which by KE. For USA-ICN flights, it makes the most logistical sense for KE to operate ICN-non DL hubs, and DL to operate ICN-DL hub.

This is very similar to the operation of European JV, where the European carrier will try (doesn't always work) to fly the route to non-UShubs, and the US carrier flies the route from US hubs. This is why DTW-AMS is 4x daily on only DL metal, and why LH operates the DTW-FRA flight instead of United. Yes, I know there are many exceptions (for various other reasons), but in general that is what the airlines find to work best logistically and financially.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 6380
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed Mar 29, 2017 1:46 pm

Due to the way JV's work based on capacity / balance agreements, aircraft availability, and operational requirements its hard to say what given hubs / Asian gateways will see DL metal vs. KE metal.

I would suspect that once the JV is approved and the details are inked between both sides you will see DTW-ICN to see increased capacity and/or go double-daily. Whether that is operated by DL or KE depends on multiple factors. Nothing is going to change in the short term for 2017, but will be interesting to see what happens for 2018.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 6380
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed Mar 29, 2017 1:50 pm

Like said, in short order, I'd suspect the following:
PDX gets ICN service, and probably eventually loses NRT
MSP gets ICN service, and might eventually lose HND
DTW eventually goes up to 10-14x ICN service
SEA sees an increase in ICN service
 
klm617
Posts: 1248
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:16 pm

kavok wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
With the announcement o KE and DL signing a JV and Detroit being their being the only Asian gateway without KE and DL service to ICN and being marketed as Delta's primary Asian gateway for the eastern US we will se the level of commitment that skyteam has in the Detroit market as to weather they increase seats here of stand by their plan to reduce capacity when they go from the from the 744 to the A350. If KE doesn't add Detroit the writing will be on the wall as to the relevance of this market in the future of the Delta network. Look for ATL-ICN to be the first international A350 route.
350 first route was already slated to be DTW-PVG, the 350 will cover the 3 747 routes to Asia and probably HKG. I think it's highly likely DTW will get KE because of the connection opportunities for both ends.


With the JV, I would be optimistic that DTW-ICN gets an additional daily flight, but would guess that it would be operated on DL metal. Here is why:

As part of the JV, DL and KE are going to divvy up the transPac flights with each carrier flying about half of the routes. So then the question becomes which routes make the most sense to be operated by DL, and which by KE. For USA-ICN flights, it makes the most logistical sense for KE to operate ICN-non DL hubs, and DL to operate ICN-DL hub.

This is very similar to the operation of European JV, where the European carrier will try (doesn't always work) to fly the route to non-UShubs, and the US carrier flies the route from US hubs. This is why DTW-AMS is 4x daily on only DL metal, and why LH operates the DTW-FRA flight instead of United. Yes, I know there are many exceptions (for various other reasons), but in general that is what the airlines find to work best logistically and financially.



That logic is way flawed as KL flies into SLC,MSP, AND ATL not to mention LH flies into every United hub. So why are these airlines not flying into the second biggest Delta hub. It's all about flowing more traffic over the other hubs verse flowing over Detroit when it comes to foreign nationals. Delta want's those foreign originating passenger to associate their national brands with connecting over Atlanta so if I am a loyal KLM passenger in my mind if I want to fly KLM to the USA really my only choice is to make o connection in Atlanta thus creating more revenue for that airport and less for the other airports in the network and even though DTW is number two in the network by Delta planning it's last on the list as far as expansion and innovation.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
klm617
Posts: 1248
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:46 pm

It really befuddles me that DL goes out there and announces ICN from ATL but yet KE forgets completely about DTW Delta's premiere gateway to Asia from the East cost you would have thought that KE would have at least announced 3 weekly DTW-ICN along with the ATL announcement. This speaks volume of more traffic being moved away from Detroit.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
klm617
Posts: 1248
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed Mar 29, 2017 5:06 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Like said, in short order, I'd suspect the following:
PDX gets ICN service, and probably eventually loses NRT
MSP gets ICN service, and might eventually lose HND
DTW eventually goes up to 10-14x ICN service
SEA sees an increase in ICN service



SEA-ICN is already 2X Daily
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
Puissance
Posts: 13
Joined: Fri Dec 30, 2016 9:37 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed Mar 29, 2017 8:24 pm

klm617 wrote:

That logic is way flawed as KL flies into SLC,MSP, AND ATL not to mention LH flies into every United hub. So why are these airlines not flying into the second biggest Delta hub. It's all about flowing more traffic over the other hubs verse flowing over Detroit when it comes to foreign nationals. Delta want's those foreign originating passenger to associate their national brands with connecting over Atlanta so if I am a loyal KLM passenger in my mind if I want to fly KLM to the USA really my only choice is to make o connection in Atlanta thus creating more revenue for that airport and less for the other airports in the network and even though DTW is number two in the network by Delta planning it's last on the list as far as expansion and innovation.


This is an interesting observation. Delta is often selling the tickets from Europe at a much lower price point to the US than from the US. Because Delta has little exposure in Europe, perhaps they are willing to have a lower price and capture many of those passengers to expose them to Delta, knowing that some passengers will prefer instead a connection on KLM (and then fly Delta anyway out of Atlanta). I have had French friends who prefer Delta over AF. It seems about 60/40 prefer Delta over AF internationally.
 
GSP psgr
Posts: 369
Joined: Thu Mar 30, 2000 7:09 am

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed Mar 29, 2017 10:05 pm

I was thinking about the impact of the C-Series on the DTW hub operation. From what I've heard, they're going to be moreso Western based than Eastern based, allowing for the return of 717s from the LAX/SEA operations. For Detroit, it might allow Delta to go all mainline on DTW-EWR/IAH/DFW/MDW/STL as well as upgauge some CR9 routes to see mainline frequencies (MHT, DSM, ROC, SYR, ALB). That seems realistic to me.
 
flymco753
Posts: 992
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2016 2:09 am

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed Mar 29, 2017 10:55 pm

GSP psgr wrote:
I was thinking about the impact of the C-Series on the DTW hub operation. From what I've heard, they're going to be moreso Western based than Eastern based, allowing for the return of 717s from the LAX/SEA operations. For Detroit, it might allow Delta to go all mainline on DTW-EWR/IAH/DFW/MDW/STL as well as upgauge some CR9 routes to see mainline frequencies (MHT, DSM, ROC, SYR, ALB). That seems realistic to me.
ALB is ran regularly on the 319 and 717, I wouldn't be surprised if SYR, ROC and ALB become all 319/717. DSM actually has seen reduction in a/c size so I don't see that, MHT seasonally does the 717 so I could see the CS100 doing one of 3 flights on that route.
Whether you're here on business, returning home, or visiting our world class attractions, welcome to Orlando and Central Florida...
 
11725Flyer
Posts: 712
Joined: Mon May 30, 2016 4:51 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed Mar 29, 2017 11:16 pm

Puissance wrote:

This is an interesting observation. Delta is often selling the tickets from Europe at a much lower price point to the US than from the US. Because Delta has little exposure in Europe, perhaps they are willing to have a lower price and capture many of those passengers to expose them to Delta, knowing that some passengers will prefer instead a connection on KLM (and then fly Delta anyway out of Atlanta). I have had French friends who prefer Delta over AF. It seems about 60/40 prefer Delta over AF internationally.


It's not really an interesting observation at all. It's the same tired and redundant rhetoric that I hope the mods will address someday.

As for your statement about Delta having "little exposure in Europe", check this out.

http://ir.delta.com/news-and-events/new ... fault.aspx
 
globalcabotage
Posts: 424
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 10:42 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Thu Mar 30, 2017 12:27 am

DFW is booming while DTW is recovering from bankruptcy. People are leaving DTW as fast as they are moving to DFW, why is that!

Detroit once had well over 1m people, now AUS, FTW, JAX, etc. keep growing and are bigger than DTW.

You say I hijack this 1 thread, while you hijack every thread. Me 1, you all. Get a life. This forum used to have great, open discussion, but it's turned into Airbus vs. Boeing, BOS/DTW/MIA vs. any airport with service said airports don't have.
 
Puissance
Posts: 13
Joined: Fri Dec 30, 2016 9:37 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Thu Mar 30, 2017 12:32 am

11725Flyer wrote:


As for your statement about Delta having "little exposure in Europe", check this out.

http://ir.delta.com/news-and-events/new ... fault.aspx



I was writing about Delta´s brand power in attracting European customers over other airlines, not their general presence in flights to and from Europe.
 
compensateme
Posts: 2012
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2009 4:17 am

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Thu Mar 30, 2017 6:25 am

globalcabotage wrote:
DFW is booming while DTW is recovering from bankruptcy. People are leaving DTW as fast as they are moving to DFW, why is that!

Detroit once had well over 1m people, now AUS, FTW, JAX, etc. keep growing and are bigger than DTW.

You say I hijack this 1 thread, while you hijack every thread. Me 1, you all. Get a life. This forum used to have great, open discussion, but it's turned into Airbus vs. Boeing, BOS/DTW/MIA vs. any airport with service said airports don't have.


Nothings changed in th decade I've participated in these forums. There's always people like some of us that want to have a thoughtful discussion, and there's always people like yourselves (and one DTW-based poster) that merely want to exploitntheor opinions rather than discussing fact. Sorry, the number of threads I've hijacked remains 0, and you're the fool that wants to bring up That one dtw poster in numerous threads.
You're not the CEO; you were a menial aircraft support mechanic intern, and that was four years ago.
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