premobrimo
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Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 4:41 am

Now You're Flying Smart.
 
commavia
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 4:44 am

Nice! About time! Cool stuff - natural evolution of the relationship, and the market. Good news for both parties.
 
hoons90
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 5:05 am

FINALLY!

Looking forward to MSP/SLC/LAX-ICN on DL!
The biggest mistake made by most human beings: Listening to only half, understanding just a quarter and telling double.
 
Concordski
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 5:07 am

I thought it would never happen. Looking forward to more options for east Asia flying that are more consistent in miles earned and quoted prices on neutral metal.
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 5:10 am

hoons90 wrote:
FINALLY!

Looking forward to MSP/SLC/LAX-ICN on DL!


I wonder if they'll move PDX-NRT to PDX-ICN.

SLC seems like a long shot.
 
MSPNWA
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 5:26 am

I hate JVs, bad for consumers, but good for both businesses. This was DL's only simple option to remain competitive in the Pacific. This will send ripples across both their networks. I expect some significant changes. I really wonder how SEA will fare. Its importance just went way down for Asia.
 
teriyaki
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 5:26 am

Big news, its finally done! We can finally put all those DL/KE what if/why not threads to rest.
 
obelau24
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 5:41 am

I work for KE and am curious what changes this will entail for our face-to-face conduct with passengers. Hopefully it will mean full mileage accrual benefits and better recognition for DL medallions as KE treats their passengers with status very well. This will definitely strengthen the ICN megahub and drive a lot more traffic to/from KE's awesome Asian network making a lot of the thinner routes like CNX and OKJ much more attractive.

In a perfect world, I would love to see DL use its influence to modernize KE. Consider the DL app, medallion upgrades, DeltaOne product, and the utility of the Delta website; In comparison, KE is 5-10 years behind. I've always found it interesting that with DL the resources are available to empower the psswnger to control their travel and travel experience while KE continues to focus all those resources into airport and reservations staff. For example, I would guess from experience that up to 80% of passengers from our station don't pre-select their own seats - they rely on the check-in agent to meet their seating needs/desires.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 6:33 am

If it's equivalent to the JV with AF/KL, it means (i) Skymiles earned on KE, a big improvement from zero SM earned on KE, and (ii) KE prices instead of DL codeshare prices, which can be triple KE fares. As of today, HNL/ICN on KE, back of a 748, <$1K; same seat on DL codeshare, ~$3K. For me, that's huge, since my miles are on Skyteam, and I've ended up on MU, CZ, and CI in Asia more than I would like the past few years.

The timing of the DL/KE JV and the AA/CZ deal makes me anticipate something big in the *A world.
 
ual777newpaint
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 6:48 am

What joyous news! I can't wait to earn DL miles on KE, or for the increased opportunities this will give DL loyalists to experience KE's (superior) product.

Hopefully this also reduces the exposure of DL passengers to MU a bit...their hard/soft product are a huge step down for those accustomed to the service levels of airlines like KE, DL.
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WPvsMW
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 7:20 am

Couldn't agree more. Superior, e.g., KE FAs actually clean the lavs, repeatedly, during Trans-Pac flights. I have never seen that done on any other ST members' longhaul flights. (I've seen it on JL and SQ, though.) However, IME, DL's catering and snacks are, on average, better (front of the bus) than those of the Asian ST members. BYOF on CI, CZ, and MU.
 
kavok
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 12:09 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
I hate JVs, bad for consumers, but good for both businesses. This was DL's only simple option to remain competitive in the Pacific. This will send ripples across both their networks. I expect some significant changes. I really wonder how SEA will fare. Its importance just went way down for Asia.



I don't see SEA's transPac role changing much from what it is today. DL will still want to have direct US service to the key Japanese and Chinese cities (which is what is served from SEA and DTW today). Beyond that, obviously all the other US to East Asian traffic being routed on KE from ICN. Essentially, for US passengers ICN becomes a new and better NRT, with onward destinations operated by KE.
 
jumbojet
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 12:20 pm

WPvsMW wrote:
Couldn't agree more. Superior, e.g., KE FAs actually clean the lavs, repeatedly, during Trans-Pac flights. I have never seen that done on any other ST members' longhaul flights. .


I've only flown business in KE but as soon as you leave the bathroom, a FA is right behind you to clean up and replenish whatever you might have taken out, like a razor, mouthwash, shaving cream packet, toothbrush.

Only issue I have with KE is how warm they keep there cabins and the business seats on the 380's are downright atrocious, in particular the headrest. If your able to get any decent sleep, you will for sure wake up with a screaming headache. They are very, very hard and uncomfortable.

Also, Korean will need to install wifi on their TPAC equipment.

Korean should be moved back to group 1 partner status once the JV is complete.
Last edited by jumbojet on Wed Mar 29, 2017 12:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
bfitzflyer
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 12:27 pm

Good news for both and gives DL more access to probably best connecting hub in NE Asia. i guess I was thinking that with the announcement we would have seen the launch of a new route or two, not previously announced, but if approved, sure this will come in time.
 
simpv
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 12:29 pm

I would also assume this hastens the end of DL's hub at NRT.
 
commavia
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 12:46 pm

hoons90 wrote:
Looking forward to MSP/SLC/LAX-ICN on DL!


This does obviously does raise the broader question of Delta's remaining network in Japan.

It definitely seems quite plausible that much of the connecting traffic Delta presently sends over TYO could now instead be shifted over ICN. And concurrent with that, it seems inevitable that Delta's Japan network is going to become far more heavily weighted towards U.S. POS O&D rather than Japan O&D. So it's hard to imagine Delta needing or wanting NRT-Asia (largely Japan O&D and connections) or NRT-Micronesia/Hawaii (near entirely Japan O&D) at this point.

With a very compelling and competitive Korean JV, plus the power of the phenomenal connecting hub at ICN, it seems plausible to me that within 3-5 years, the only Delta flights operating in Japan will be nonstops to the U.S. Branded flying to SIN/MNL can be shifted to ICN or simply ended altogether in favor of existing Korean flights. And in terms of U.S. nonstops to TYO, LAX, SEA, DTW and ATL may be sufficient, plus probably MSP (to maintain the second slot pair at HND). Beyond that, everything else could be routed over ICN.

BoeingGuy wrote:
I wonder if they'll move PDX-NRT to PDX-ICN.


I still suspect that if (when) Delta exits PDX-NRT - replaced with a Delta or Korean flight to ICN or not - either JAL or ANA will come in with a 788 to NRT in its place.

BoeingGuy wrote:
SLC seems like a long shot.


Agree.

MSPNWA wrote:
I really wonder how SEA will fare. Its importance just went way down for Asia.


I strongly disagree. SEA continues to serve precisely the purpose for which it was intended - conveniently linking markets throughout the western U.S. with the principal cities of East Asia. That isn't going to change with or without a Korean JV. Personally, I continue to believe that the combination of DTW, SEA and ICN, plus to an extent LAX, is an extremely compelling proposition for Delta between the U.S. and Asia.

ual777newpaint wrote:
Hopefully this also reduces the exposure of DL passengers to MU a bit...their hard/soft product are a huge step down for those accustomed to the service levels of airlines like KE, DL.


Yes, but of course as has been thoroughly discussed, China Eastern and PVG were never a plausible long-term connecting solution for Delta in Asia, anyway. That was the P.R. spin, of course, but it was not viable for a variety of reasons. PVG can and will no doubt continue to develop into a great means for Delta to access interior China, but not the rest of the region. More generally, though, I agree that it will be very interesting to see how this JV will interact with Delta's "strategic partnership" with China Eastern for one big reason: while PVG is arguably a good connecting point into interior China, so is ICN. There is a lot of overlap between the network value that both Korean and China Eastern bring to Delta in China.
 
jumbojet
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 1:10 pm

commavia wrote:
hoons90 wrote:
Looking forward to MSP/SLC/LAX-ICN on DL!


. Branded flying to SIN/MNL can be shifted to ICN or simply ended altogether in favor of existing Korean flights. And in terms of U.S. nonstops to TYO, LAX, SEA, DTW and ATL may be sufficient, plus probably MSP (to maintain the second slot pair at HND). Beyond that, everything else could be routed over ICN.

.


yeah but DL cant fly their own metal from ICN-SIN/MNL or anywhere else for that matter out of ICN except back to the states. I don't believe they or anyone else enjoy 5th freedom rights in Korea. If DL stops NRT-SIN/MNL on their own metal, than that will effectively kill their own service to any and all points in South East Asia. Its a major downgrade for Diamonds because it essentially lessens the value of DL's global upgrade certificates.
 
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enilria
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 1:46 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
I hate JVs, bad for consumers, but good for both businesses. This was DL's only simple option to remain competitive in the Pacific. This will send ripples across both their networks. I expect some significant changes. I really wonder how SEA will fare. Its importance just went way down for Asia.

Agreed. I think the writing was on the wall for SEA long-haul when they deferred some A350s and cancelled the 787. I think in terms of Pacific, SEA is now fully built out. In fact, I can see HKG capacity moving to increase ICN.

I think MSP-HND is eventually replaced with ICN, this may take several years to play out. SLC probably also gets ICN less than daily. PDX definitely. Probably also bad for NGO.
 
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enilria
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 1:48 pm

jumbojet wrote:
commavia wrote:
hoons90 wrote:
Looking forward to MSP/SLC/LAX-ICN on DL!


. Branded flying to SIN/MNL can be shifted to ICN or simply ended altogether in favor of existing Korean flights. And in terms of U.S. nonstops to TYO, LAX, SEA, DTW and ATL may be sufficient, plus probably MSP (to maintain the second slot pair at HND). Beyond that, everything else could be routed over ICN.

.


yeah but DL cant fly their own metal from ICN-SIN/MNL or anywhere else for that matter out of ICN except back to the states. I don't believe they or anyone else enjoy 5th freedom rights in Korea. If DL stops NRT-SIN/MNL on their own metal, than that will effectively kill their own service to any and all points in South East Asia. Its a major downgrade for Diamonds because it essentially lessens the value of DL's global upgrade certificates.

Delta had the option to fly some 5th freedom past AMS and is content to let KL operate it. I think DL will savor the opportunity to cut all those long haul, low yield ASMs as it will allow them to a lot of domestic capacity and still make Wall Street happy with a net neutral.
 
panamair
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 1:50 pm

jumbojet wrote:
yeah but DL cant fly their own metal from ICN-SIN/MNL or anywhere else for that matter out of ICN except back to the states. I don't believe they or anyone else enjoy 5th freedom rights in Korea. If DL stops NRT-SIN/MNL on their own metal, than that will effectively kill their own service to any and all points in South East Asia.


Not true. The US and Korea have an open skies agreement which provides for both Korean and US carriers to have unlimited fifth freedom rights. When KE operated LAX-GRU for example, they could carry local pax on that route. If DL were to start ICN-SIN or ICN-BKK (as the US also has open skies agreements with both Singapore and Thailand which allow fifth freedoms), they would have local traffic rights as well.
Last edited by panamair on Wed Mar 29, 2017 1:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Sightseer
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 1:52 pm

A long-awaited, excellent development! This should have several transformative effects for DL fliers; elimination of beyond-NRT flights (including NRT-PVG ... hmm), elevation of KE to Tier 1 Skymiles status (finally), and vastly improved access to secondary cities in Northeast Asia and primary cities in Southeast Asia (no more double-connecting from JFK/LAX/SFO).
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 1:53 pm

Good point, its a good way to swap-out the "beyond NRT" capacity with increased ICN-USA capacity. No one will let them magically grow TPAC capacity, it will have to be near-net neutral.
 
airbazar
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 1:53 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
I hate JVs, bad for consumers, but good for both businesses.

I disagree. Lack of competition is bad for consumers but JV's increase competition. It allows for more city pairs to be linked which give consumers more options, and more options = more competition. For example, do you think we'd have BA flying LHR-AUS or JL flying NRT-SAN without a JV? No, They would stick to the main routes into the large markets. I'm hoping this JV finally bring KE back to BOS.
 
sspontak
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 1:55 pm

kavok wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:
I hate JVs, bad for consumers, but good for both businesses. This was DL's only simple option to remain competitive in the Pacific. This will send ripples across both their networks. I expect some significant changes. I really wonder how SEA will fare. Its importance just went way down for Asia.



I don't see SEA's transPac role changing much from what it is today. DL will still want to have direct US service to the key Japanese and Chinese cities (which is what is served from SEA and DTW today). Beyond that, obviously all the other US to East Asian traffic being routed on KE from ICN. Essentially, for US passengers ICN becomes a new and better NRT, with onward destinations operated by KE.


With NRT dwindling down, it will be interesting to see what DL adds out of SEA such as TPE, BKK, KIX, SIN and MNL.
Go Delta!
 
commavia
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:03 pm

enilria wrote:
I think in terms of Pacific, SEA is now fully built out.


Agree - significant additional capacity growth SEA-Asia is unlikely at this point. But I think that was the case with or without a Korean JV.

enilria wrote:
In fact, I can see HKG capacity moving to increase ICN.


Maybe, but even despite its struggles in the HKG market, it seems hard to imagine Delta not wanting to maintain at least a token branded presence in one of the world's largest and most important financial centers and premium travel markets. Even if it remains just a single daily A330 to SEA, I think Delta stays in HKG rather than relying on Korean for access.

enilria wrote:
I think MSP-HND is eventually replaced with ICN


Possibly, although again, that raises the specter of what happens with the HND slot pair. I share the skepticism of many here about whether or not MSP really makes sense for a HND flight, but at this point if Delta tries to move that HND slot pair somewhere else, AA, Hawaiian and United are going to come out of the woodwork fighting to strip Delta of that authority.

enilria wrote:
Probably also bad for NGO.


I'm not sure. NGO caters to a very specific market - auto industry - that is unlikely to go away with or without a Korean JV. I think Delta should be able to continue 4x weekly A330 DTW-NGO regardless of what happens up at NRT.
 
dmorbust
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:09 pm

sspontak wrote:
kavok wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:
I hate JVs, bad for consumers, but good for both businesses. This was DL's only simple option to remain competitive in the Pacific. This will send ripples across both their networks. I expect some significant changes. I really wonder how SEA will fare. Its importance just went way down for Asia.



I don't see SEA's transPac role changing much from what it is today. DL will still want to have direct US service to the key Japanese and Chinese cities (which is what is served from SEA and DTW today). Beyond that, obviously all the other US to East Asian traffic being routed on KE from ICN. Essentially, for US passengers ICN becomes a new and better NRT, with onward destinations operated by KE.


With NRT dwindling down, it will be interesting to see what DL adds out of SEA such as TPE, BKK, KIX, SIN and MNL.


My guess is none of those. Perhaps TPE happens down the road but not anytime soon. All those destinations will be served by KE via ICN. What is most interesting will be to see what stays and what goes of DL's current USA-NRT routes. I bet they apply to move MSP-HND back to SEA, although selfishly I wish they brought back JFK-Tokyo via Haneda. In a perfect world they would get enough authorities to move their whole USA-Tokyo slate of ATL, DTW, PDX, SEA, MSP (already at Haneda), LAX (already at Haneda), and I'd hope JFK again all to Haneda and let ICN handle all beyond/connecting traffic but that is a pipe dream.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:15 pm

commavia wrote:
enilria wrote:
Probably also bad for NGO.


I'm not sure. NGO caters to a very specific market - auto industry - that is unlikely to go away with or without a Korean JV. I think Delta should be able to continue 4x weekly A330 DTW-NGO regardless of what happens up at NRT.


Agreed. DTW-NGO is obviously harder through ICN. Hub-NGO (e.g. ATL-NGO) is equally easy through DTW and ICN (ICN might have the slight advantage of quicker connecting times coming east with no need for customs and immigration at the connecting point). Outstation-NGO is a lot harder through ICN because it involves a double connection. Take BNA (which I know well and which has some auto industry traffic) as an example. On weekdays this summer where DTW-NGO operates, BNA-NGO can be done in as little as 16:10. The quickest ICN-connecting itinerary is 21:55, and that also involves a trade of the extremely convenient 1445 arrival at NGO to a 2055 arrival that is pretty rough for auto industry traffic that is largely not going to Nagoya proper.

I see no reason why DTW-NGO depends on what happens at NRT or with KE. DL has removed a lot of capacity from the market, but with the end of NGO-MNL the flight is basically independent of the rest of the Asia network.
Last edited by Cubsrule on Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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tlecam
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:21 pm

dmorbust wrote:
sspontak wrote:
kavok wrote:


I don't see SEA's transPac role changing much from what it is today. DL will still want to have direct US service to the key Japanese and Chinese cities (which is what is served from SEA and DTW today). Beyond that, obviously all the other US to East Asian traffic being routed on KE from ICN. Essentially, for US passengers ICN becomes a new and better NRT, with onward destinations operated by KE.


With NRT dwindling down, it will be interesting to see what DL adds out of SEA such as TPE, BKK, KIX, SIN and MNL.


My guess is none of those. Perhaps TPE happens down the road but not anytime soon. All those destinations will be served by KE via ICN. What is most interesting will be to see what stays and what goes of DL's current USA-NRT routes. I bet they apply to move MSP-HND back to SEA, although selfishly I wish they brought back JFK-Tokyo via Haneda. In a perfect world they would get enough authorities to move their whole USA-Tokyo slate of ATL, DTW, PDX, SEA, MSP (already at Haneda), LAX (already at Haneda), and I'd hope JFK again all to Haneda and let ICN handle all beyond/connecting traffic but that is a pipe dream.



Agreed - I think that one of the main benefits of the KE JV is that there is service to BKK, KIX, MNL through ICN rather than trying to make a go of long, thin, routes from SEA.
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Sightseer
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:27 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
I see no reason why DTW-NGO depends on what happens at NRT or with KE. DL has removed a lot of capacity from the market, but with the end of NGO-MNL the fligjht is basically independent of the rest of the Asia network.


Random thought: with the likely elimination of NRT-MNL, I wonder if there is a small chance - emphasis on small - that DTW-NGO is extended to MNL again and the flight becomes daily once more. 4x weekly service surely isn't winning any new business customers.
 
jetlanta
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:28 pm

This has been a long and difficult journey, but they finally got there. It has been inevitable for years, it just needed the right circumstances to be in place.
 
VictorKilo
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:29 pm

commavia wrote:
Yes, but of course as has been thoroughly discussed, China Eastern and PVG were never a plausible long-term connecting solution for Delta in Asia, anyway. That was the P.R. spin, of course, but it was not viable for a variety of reasons. PVG can and will no doubt continue to develop into a great means for Delta to access interior China, but not the rest of the region. More generally, though, I agree that it will be very interesting to see how this JV will interact with Delta's "strategic partnership" with China Eastern for one big reason: while PVG is arguably a good connecting point into interior China, so is ICN. There is a lot of overlap between the network value that both Korean and China Eastern bring to Delta in China.


Will US-Korea-China traffic be in scope as a part of this JV, or does it have to be excluded because the US and China do not have Open Skies?

Even if it is included, the current schedules offered by KE don't enable US-China connections. Outside of LAS and second flights from JFK and LAX, all US-Korea flights from DL and KE land between 1600 and 1800, and the only destinations offered at least daily by KE to China that depart after 1600 are those already served by DL, PEK, PVG, and HKG.

But, because DL doesn't need KE for coverage to interior China, since it has a partnership with China Eastern, there is no need for KE to change its approach and scheduling to China as a result of the DL JV. I think that's a feature, not a bug, to enable both a successful Delta-Korean partnership and a successful Delta-China Eastern partnership.
 
Darklord1
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:37 pm

Also don't forget Deltas ATL-ICN flight in June
 
Sightseer
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:38 pm

VictorKilo wrote:
Will US-Korea-China traffic be in scope as a part of this JV, or does it have to be excluded because the US and China do not have Open Skies?


It won't be included, due to no US-China open skies as you mention. They may be able to codeshare, although I don't know enough about the relevant Air Service Agreements to say for sure.
 
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Polot
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:46 pm

jumbojet wrote:
Its a major downgrade for Diamonds because it essentially lessens the value of DL's global upgrade certificates.

And you think with a KE JV DL will now start caring about that?
 
VictorKilo
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:50 pm

commavia wrote:
enilria wrote:
I think MSP-HND is eventually replaced with ICN


Possibly, although again, that raises the specter of what happens with the HND slot pair. I share the skepticism of many here about whether or not MSP really makes sense for a HND flight, but at this point if Delta tries to move that HND slot pair somewhere else, AA, Hawaiian and United are going to come out of the woodwork fighting to strip Delta of that authority.


I agree with commavia that DL will continue to fly MSP-HND to maintain the HND slot. The DL-KE JV may give DL the cover to use a smaller A332 on this route rather than the 777 they use today - especially if they start MSP-ICN.
 
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Polot
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:04 pm

Keep in mind that DL must operate MSP-HND at least through ~summer '18, or else AA automatically gets the slot for DFW-HND (backup authority valid for 2 years).

The DOT did not go into much clarification on what it considers "significant deviations" from DL's MSP proposal; I'm not sure if DL will risk it with significant capacity changes in the mean time.
Last edited by Polot on Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
panamair
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:04 pm

VictorKilo wrote:
The DL-KE JV may give DL the cover to use a smaller A332 on this route rather than the 777 they use today - especially if they start MSP-ICN.


Believe it or not, MSP-HND loads particularly in the back have improved quite a bit recently...no idea about yields.
 
kavok
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:17 pm

Polot wrote:
Keep in mind that DL must operate MSP-HND at least through ~summer '18, or else AA automatically gets the slot for DFW-HND (backup authority valid for 2 years).

The DOT did not go into much clarification on what it considers "significant deviations" from DL's MSP proposal; I'm not sure if DL will risk it with significant capacity changes in the mean time.



Through Summer of 2018 really isn't that far off, all things considered. It will take some time for the JV to get up and running anyway. DL will definitely want to keep the HND slot, even if the MSP yields are bad. I could very easily see DL launching a MSP-ICN route starting summer of 2018, and then using that addition to justify trying to swap the HND slot elsewhere in Fall of 2018 when the time requirement is up.
 
cokepopper
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:52 pm

Any guess what the route map would look at in
Say 2-3 years? What partner would be on what route and frequency? I.e. Would Delta put their equipment on JFK-ICN? Also what happens to Palau and Guam?
 
commavia
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 4:21 pm

Polot wrote:
Keep in mind that DL must operate MSP-HND at least through ~summer '18, or else AA automatically gets the slot for DFW-HND (backup authority valid for 2 years).

kavok wrote:
Through Summer of 2018 really isn't that far off, all things considered. It will take some time for the JV to get up and running anyway. DL will definitely want to keep the HND slot, even if the MSP yields are bad. I could very easily see DL launching a MSP-ICN route starting summer of 2018, and then using that addition to justify trying to swap the HND slot elsewhere in Fall of 2018 when the time requirement is up.


Delta needs to keep operating MSP-HND beyond 2018. All that changes after 2018 is Delta' stopping the route doesn't automatically lead to AA getting DFW-HND. But even after 2018, if Delta tries to move MSP-HND, what it will still automatically cause is a swift and considerable response from not just AA but also Hawaiian and United to reopen the case and have the slots stripped from Delta. Delta exiting MSP-HND after 2018 remains risky, to say the least.
 
dmorbust
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 4:33 pm

commavia wrote:
Polot wrote:
Keep in mind that DL must operate MSP-HND at least through ~summer '18, or else AA automatically gets the slot for DFW-HND (backup authority valid for 2 years).

kavok wrote:
Through Summer of 2018 really isn't that far off, all things considered. It will take some time for the JV to get up and running anyway. DL will definitely want to keep the HND slot, even if the MSP yields are bad. I could very easily see DL launching a MSP-ICN route starting summer of 2018, and then using that addition to justify trying to swap the HND slot elsewhere in Fall of 2018 when the time requirement is up.


Delta needs to keep operating MSP-HND beyond 2018. All that changes after 2018 is Delta' stopping the route doesn't automatically lead to AA getting DFW-HND. But even after 2018, if Delta tries to move MSP-HND, what it will still automatically cause is a swift and considerable response from not just AA but also Hawaiian and United to reopen the case and have the slots stripped from Delta. Delta exiting MSP-HND after 2018 remains risky, to say the least.


Beyond summer '18, I bet Delta will request to move the MSP-HND slot somewhere else, my guess is back to SEA (would have loved JFK though). Given the competitive dynamics of AA and UA having Japanese based JV partners offering a lot more HND-USA service, I bet the DOT allows the move. DL can always say in their request that they are prepared to continue flying MSP-HND so as not to lose the valuable HND slot if their request is denied to eliminate any risk of losing the slot to someone else.
 
lavalampluva
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 4:58 pm

dmorbust wrote:
commavia wrote:
Polot wrote:
Keep in mind that DL must operate MSP-HND at least through ~summer '18, or else AA automatically gets the slot for DFW-HND (backup authority valid for 2 years).

kavok wrote:
Through Summer of 2018 really isn't that far off, all things considered. It will take some time for the JV to get up and running anyway. DL will definitely want to keep the HND slot, even if the MSP yields are bad. I could very easily see DL launching a MSP-ICN route starting summer of 2018, and then using that addition to justify trying to swap the HND slot elsewhere in Fall of 2018 when the time requirement is up.


Delta needs to keep operating MSP-HND beyond 2018. All that changes after 2018 is Delta' stopping the route doesn't automatically lead to AA getting DFW-HND. But even after 2018, if Delta tries to move MSP-HND, what it will still automatically cause is a swift and considerable response from not just AA but also Hawaiian and United to reopen the case and have the slots stripped from Delta. Delta exiting MSP-HND after 2018 remains risky, to say the least.


Beyond summer '18, I bet Delta will request to move the MSP-HND slot somewhere else, my guess is back to SEA (would have loved JFK though). Given the competitive dynamics of AA and UA having Japanese based JV partners offering a lot more HND-USA service, I bet the DOT allows the move. DL can always say in their request that they are prepared to continue flying MSP-HND so as not to lose the valuable HND slot if their request is denied to eliminate any risk of losing the slot to someone else.

Loads have been improving on MSP-HND. IMO DL needs to sharpen their pencil when it comes to airfares.
Remind me to send a thank you note to Mr. Boeing.
 
MSPNWA
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 5:42 pm

kavok wrote:
I don't see SEA's transPac role changing much from what it is today. DL will still want to have direct US service to the key Japanese and Chinese cities (which is what is served from SEA and DTW today). Beyond that, obviously all the other US to East Asian traffic being routed on KE from ICN. Essentially, for US passengers ICN becomes a new and better NRT, with onward destinations operated by KE.


If the SEA hub never expands past what it is today in the Pacific, its importance dropped significantly.

commavia wrote:
I strongly disagree. SEA continues to serve precisely the purpose for which it was intended - conveniently linking markets throughout the western U.S. with the principal cities of East Asia. That isn't going to change with or without a Korean JV. Personally, I continue to believe that the combination of DTW, SEA and ICN, plus to an extent LAX, is an extremely compelling proposition for Delta between the U.S. and Asia.


You can strongly disagree all you want, but there's no logical reason to back up your opinion. SEA's importance just took a giant nosedive across the Pacific. No doubt. Every route was already at bare minimum service levels, with bleak prospects to expand further. Now with KE's established presence in LAX, SFO, SEA, LAS, DFW, IAH, and ORD, along with DL's LAX, PDX, MSP, and SLC presence, the force-feeding of connecting traffic over SEA can minimize. The only geographical advantage that would remain for SEA over ICN is to Japan, where it only has the lame duck NRT with very weak prospects of anything else beyond a shift to HND.

The Seattle buildup might not even happen if DL had a joint venture all along. It was an effort to live without one, but I think we're seeing Delta come to the realization that SEA wasn't nearly enough to stem the reduction of their Pacific network. If significant expansion at SEA was looking unlikely before this, we know it's not going to happen now.

airbazar wrote:
I disagree. Lack of competition is bad for consumers but JV's increase competition. It allows for more city pairs to be linked which give consumers more options, and more options = more competition. For example, do you think we'd have BA flying LHR-AUS or JL flying NRT-SAN without a JV? No, They would stick to the main routes into the large markets. I'm hoping this JV finally bring KE back to BOS.


Increase competition? Not only does that contradict every economic principle out there, it's against what we've seen with every airline JV out there. The primary point of a JV is to reduce competition. DL and KE loyalists will enjoy expanded networks, but it will not increase the competitive balance. Capacity will certainly drop overall. There will be some winners, but the losers will outpace the winners. You think it's better that NYC-LHR has just three carriers? Is it good that MSP/DTW/CVG/SLC/SEA/DEN/ATL/PHX/PDX/CLT/PHL-Europe are monopolies or near monopolies? Is it ideal for one JV to dominate North to South American capacity? If you're a loyalist that doesn't mind paying more to fly the monopoly airline, sure. But if you're the overall public, the answer is no.

Would LHR-AUS and NRT-SAN exist without them? Likely. Those are routes largely unaffected by JVs. Those are example of routes that exist without JVs. The flying public would see more of these thinner routes without JVs because carriers have to fight harder for traffic.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 5:45 pm

WPvsMW wrote:


The timing of the DL/KE JV and the AA/CZ deal makes me anticipate something big in the *A world.

In a away, that already happened with the UA/NH JV a few years ago.
Eat 'em up Kats!
 
jumbojet
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Joined: Mon Dec 29, 2003 3:01 am

Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 5:56 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
You can strongly disagree all you want, but there's no logical reason to back up your opinion. SEA's importance just took a giant nosedive across the Pacific. No doubt. Every route was already at bare minimum service levels, with bleak prospects to expand further.
The Seattle buildup might not even happen if DL had a joint venture all along. It was an effort to live without one, but I think we're seeing Delta come to the realization that SEA wasn't nearly enough to stem the reduction of their Pacific network. If significant expansion at SEA was looking unlikely before this, we know it's not going to happen now.

.


SEA wasn't going to happen overnight. The SEA build up is what, 3 or 4 years in the making? Everybody seems to want to think that DL should be flying 777's and other large ULH aircraft from SEA in abundance like UA does from SFO. SEA however, is holding its own with the 767 flying TPAC. You don't need large, ULH aircraft to make money and to fit the intended mission. Who really knows what SEA TPAC will look like in a few more years but I'd be willing to bet my paycheck that SEA is not going anywhere, even with the new KE JVA in place. In fact, DL SEA will continue its growth, maybe not as fast but it will grow. And if DL SEA retreats, POS is going to be F****n pissed!!
 
Osubuckeyes
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 6:23 pm

jumbojet wrote:
SEA wasn't going to happen overnight. The SEA build up is what, 3 or 4 years in the making? Everybody seems to want to think that DL should be flying 777's and other large ULH aircraft from SEA in abundance like UA does from SFO. SEA however, is holding its own with the 767 flying TPAC. You don't need large, ULH aircraft to make money and to fit the intended mission. Who really knows what SEA TPAC will look like in a few more years but I'd be willing to bet my paycheck that SEA is not going anywhere, even with the new KE JVA in place. In fact, DL SEA will continue its growth, maybe not as fast but it will grow. And if DL SEA retreats, POS is going to be F****n pissed!!


I don't think that the outlook of SEA in the network really is diminished currently as the quoted poster was implying, but I do think it will have an impact on how risk adverse DL is going forward in Asia. Future targets for growth are likely shifted further away on the timeline as they will be adequately served via KE JV versus DL metal. I think it pretty much ensures that you won't see SEA-SIN/KUL/BKK for a long time or anything as ambitious as SEA-XIY for an even longer time. I do think TPE, and MNL have an outside shot from SEA or DTW, but we'll see. I also think this will hasten the end of NRT-onward flights.
 
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enilria
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 6:26 pm

commavia wrote:
enilria wrote:
I think MSP-HND is eventually replaced with ICN

Possibly, although again, that raises the specter of what happens with the HND slot pair. I share the skepticism of many here about whether or not MSP really makes sense for a HND flight, but at this point if Delta tries to move that HND slot pair somewhere else, AA, Hawaiian and United are going to come out of the woodwork fighting to strip Delta of that authority.

The key word is eventually. I think MSP will muddle along for quite a while. I think it will work for now because there's so little service to HND from the East. Once there's more MSP will lose it's exceptionally high existing share of demand to HND from the East. Once things have rebalanced it won't have enough traffic to remain.
commavia wrote:
enilria wrote:
Probably also bad for NGO.


I'm not sure. NGO caters to a very specific market - auto industry - that is unlikely to go away with or without a Korean JV. I think Delta should be able to continue 4x weekly A330 DTW-NGO regardless of what happens up at NRT.


This is why
http://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/Toyota ... 56625.html
dmorbust wrote:
Beyond summer '18, I bet Delta will request to move the MSP-HND slot somewhere else, my guess is back to SEA (would have loved JFK though).

As I said above, I think MSP-HND will be OK until more HND flights are authorized at which point it will weaken a lot. I do agree it should have stayed in SEA.
MSPNWA wrote:
SEA's importance just took a giant nosedive across the Pacific

Agreed, but I think they have invested too much to really shrink much. I think the domestic has gotten a lot better and while Transpac was the reason to open the hub, domestic will be the reason to keep it.

OTOH, if LAX magically allowed them to add 150 departures I think they'd tear SEA apart to grab the opportunity. Won't happen, though.
 
kavok
Posts: 90
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 6:59 pm

jumbojet wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:
You can strongly disagree all you want, but there's no logical reason to back up your opinion. SEA's importance just took a giant nosedive across the Pacific. No doubt. Every route was already at bare minimum service levels, with bleak prospects to expand further.
The Seattle buildup might not even happen if DL had a joint venture all along. It was an effort to live without one, but I think we're seeing Delta come to the realization that SEA wasn't nearly enough to stem the reduction of their Pacific network. If significant expansion at SEA was looking unlikely before this, we know it's not going to happen now.

.


SEA wasn't going to happen overnight. The SEA build up is what, 3 or 4 years in the making? Everybody seems to want to think that DL should be flying 777's and other large ULH aircraft from SEA in abundance like UA does from SFO. SEA however, is holding its own with the 767 flying TPAC. You don't need large, ULH aircraft to make money and to fit the intended mission. Who really knows what SEA TPAC will look like in a few more years but I'd be willing to bet my paycheck that SEA is not going anywhere, even with the new KE JVA in place. In fact, DL SEA will continue its growth, maybe not as fast but it will grow. And if DL SEA retreats, POS is going to be F****n pissed!!



SEA is not going anywhere. With the JV, Seattle will basically remain what it is now, which is basically a west coast DTW with a few more destinations. We might see one or two more route adds, but it will probably stay pretty close to what it is today.

Thus with the JV, the TransPac focus out of SEA becomes focused on Western US to China/Japan traffic. There is a lot of potential in that. Unless you live in SFO, LAX, or DFW, if you are in the Western US and going to Japan/China, you have to connect somewhere. And in almost all of those cases, SEA is the one that makes best sense geographically.
 
Sightseer
Posts: 652
Joined: Mon Jan 12, 2015 6:04 am

Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 7:07 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
commavia wrote:
I strongly disagree. SEA continues to serve precisely the purpose for which it was intended - conveniently linking markets throughout the western U.S. with the principal cities of East Asia. That isn't going to change with or without a Korean JV. Personally, I continue to believe that the combination of DTW, SEA and ICN, plus to an extent LAX, is an extremely compelling proposition for Delta between the U.S. and Asia.


You can strongly disagree all you want, but there's no logical reason to back up your opinion. SEA's importance just took a giant nosedive across the Pacific. No doubt.


What is your understanding of the SEA hub's purpose? I would say that, from the beginning, it's raison d'etre has been to funnel traffic from the Western US to the principal Asian gateways, which is exactly what Commavia said. I agree that this likely dampens TPAC expansion from SEA in terms of new destinations, but outside of maybe TPE I also think there were basically no viable destinations that DL doesn't already serve.
 
grbauc
Posts: 599
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Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

Wed Mar 29, 2017 7:24 pm

obelau24 wrote:
I work for KE and am curious what changes this will entail for our face-to-face conduct with passengers. Hopefully it will mean full mileage accrual benefits and better recognition for DL medallions as KE treats their passengers with status very well. This will definitely strengthen the ICN megahub and drive a lot more traffic to/from KE's awesome Asian network making a lot of the thinner routes like CNX and OKJ much more attractive.

In a perfect world, I would love to see DL use its influence to modernize KE. Consider the DL app, medallion upgrades, DeltaOne product, and the utility of the Delta website; In comparison, KE is 5-10 years behind. I've always found it interesting that with DL the resources are available to empower the psswnger to control their travel and travel experience while KE continues to focus all those resources into airport and reservations staff. For example, I would guess from experience that up to 80% of passengers from our station don't pre-select their own seats - they rely on the check-in agent to meet their seating needs/desires.


Wow great post and good luck to you and KE. Ive flown on your A380s and plan on flying on here 748 soon. I've enjoyed the personal service of KE and agree you guys could use some moderniupdating in some areas.

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