I agree except AI must be reformed before being sold and some large chunk of the debt must be forgiven to make the business case. QR might overpay, but right now AI is in worse shape than AZ and that was proven to be un-workable.
In next 2 years most of its aged permanent workforce will retire. It will have very few permanent employees. It hasn't recruited permanent employees since 2006. As of now entire staff cost is less than $300 Million including retiree cost.
It has 32 acres in Vasant Vihar where a 3 bed room apartment goes for $1 Million or more (someone familiar with Delhi real estate can comment on this). QR can build one skyscraper for all employees and print money selling the rest.
Seven LHR slots may be $75 Million each.
A $500 Million Nariman Point property is stuck with an Indian Bank as collateral for $100 Million working capital loan which AI cannot repay, there is no way to monetize.
AIESL has 33 hangers, Asia's largest MRO provider.
All QR need to do is to unshackle AI from Indian Bankers, the $3.2 Billion revenue will take care of itself.
Main issue even QR/Qatar as owner, it cannot get working capital loans outside India. So buyer has to estimate required working capital and structure it as equity during purchase. EY missed this trick 9W, so does SIA and Air Asia(Bhd).
In general, if you start an airline in India with $300 Million it is a guaranteed failure, if you start with a $1 Billion it is a guaranteed success. Difference between Vistata/Air Asia(India) and Indigo.