User avatar
cvgComair
Topic Author
Posts: 880
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:48 pm

WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Fri May 05, 2017 11:42 pm

It's that time again, on May 15, 2017, Southwest will open its schedule from November 3, 2017 through January 7, 2018. Now that the big fleet reductions are out of the way and MAX aircraft are coming in, I think we need to put the rumors to bed that DSM, FNT, GSP, ROC, etc. will close.

As always, what routes/stations do you see being added or cut? I know more international routes are heavily rumored, with Turks & Caicos being mentioned recently. There have been some predictions that we could see more DAL/HOU flights to the midwest, though gate spaces (especially at DAL) are an issue for any expansion. Historically WN has not launched new routes from stations that have not opened yet, but CVG launches June 4, which in only two weeks after the schedule is extended. What are your thoughts, besides what routes could work from CVG, does anyone actually think they would add more destinations in this schedule release (my vote is not yet, I think we will need to wait until the following schedule release)?

Since the last schedule release, WN has made some changes, so I expect at least a few new routes this time around:

WN LAS-LGB AUG 0.8>0.5
WN LAS-PHL JUL 1.1>1.9
WN LAS-RDU JUL 1.1>1.8
WN GEG-SMF AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0
WN LAS-RNO JUN 10>9
WN LGB-SMF AUG 0>2.0 SEP 0>2 OCT 0>2
WN SAN-SMF JUN 10>11 JUL 10>11 AUG 10>11 SEP 10>11 OCT 10>11
WN SEA-SMF JUN 4>6 JUL 4>6 AUG 4>6 SEP 4>6 OCT 4>6
Also STL-CHS is going daily, probably will show up in the OAG on Sunday

What do you think? We have a little under 2 weeks, so that should give enough time for some interesting discussion!
Next: CVG-IAH, Delta Connection CRJ-700 (GoJet Airlines)
A319/320/332, B712/722/732/733/738/739/752/753/763/764/772/773/788, CRJ-100/2/7/9, ERJ-145/75, MD-88/90, S340
 
jbmitt
Posts: 543
Joined: Fri Jan 18, 2002 3:59 am

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Sat May 06, 2017 12:12 am

WN at DSM did get new competition from F9 on the LAS route. That's three carriers on the route including G4. At DSM, I think they will have to make a decision to add flights, or watch their passengers flock to cheaper and better flight options. With only three daily flights, that's likely a death sentence. They have been using 738s on some flights, so I think there is demand, and loyalty, despite the MDW flights being moved to STL offering less connection opportunities.

This may be a good opportunity for WN to add a DEN flight, or copy what F9 did with seasonal flights to PHX and MCO. With the new reservation system, I think DSM would be a good market for them to try less than daily flights to balance capacity with demand.
 
airliner371
Posts: 2275
Joined: Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:53 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Sat May 06, 2017 12:26 am

We will probably see the new HOU-MEX flights loaded if those have gotten approval. I wouldn't be surprised to see them move the poorly timed slot pair they currently have on MEX-HOU to another city instead of just dropping the slot pair.

cvgComair wrote:
with Turks & Caicos being mentioned recently.

Just to clarify, WN has announced PLS from FLL starting November 5th so that will be in this extension.

https://www.swamedia.com/releases/relea ... ter-profit
https://www.swamedia.com/pages/when-did-we-arrive


Separately from this release but notable:
From the conference call, we can assume that some of the one-res system features (red-eye flying, codeshares, international P.O.S. enhancements) should be announced this fall for a 2018 rollout.
Support Net Neutrality, Support airliners.net!
 
alggag
Posts: 197
Joined: Tue Apr 20, 2010 6:34 am

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Sat May 06, 2017 12:38 am

airliner371 wrote:
We will probably see the new HOU-MEX flights loaded if those have gotten approval. I wouldn't be surprised to see them move the poorly timed slot pair they currently have on MEX-HOU to another city instead of just dropping the slot pair..


I was under the impression that the 05:30 MEX-HOU outbound and 23:30 HOU-MEX arrival operate out of slot controlled hours and that they don't really need to maintain it if they don't want to as there's no slot pair to give up.
 
airliner371
Posts: 2275
Joined: Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:53 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Sat May 06, 2017 12:43 am

alggag wrote:
airliner371 wrote:
We will probably see the new HOU-MEX flights loaded if those have gotten approval. I wouldn't be surprised to see them move the poorly timed slot pair they currently have on MEX-HOU to another city instead of just dropping the slot pair..


I was under the impression that the 05:30 MEX-HOU outbound and 23:30 HOU-MEX arrival operate out of slot controlled hours and that they don't really need to maintain it if they don't want to as there's no slot pair to give up.

You may be correct, still I think we could see WN add some city using times outside of the slot regulations. Perhaps operate an LAX or FLL flight using similar times until they get the slots next year.
Support Net Neutrality, Support airliners.net!
 
evank516
Posts: 137
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:15 am

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Sat May 06, 2017 2:28 pm

I see myself making my Thanksgiving plans when the new schedule is released ;). LGA-MCI! I doubt we'll see a second daily on that route by WN, but it's nice that they have the LGA-MCI leg in the early afternoon now as opposed to late afternoon/evening.
 
dbo861
Posts: 895
Joined: Tue May 18, 2004 2:20 am

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Sat May 06, 2017 2:36 pm

jbmitt wrote:
WN at DSM did get new competition from F9 on the LAS route. That's three carriers on the route including G4. At DSM, I think they will have to make a decision to add flights, or watch their passengers flock to cheaper and better flight options. With only three daily flights, that's likely a death sentence. They have been using 738s on some flights, so I think there is demand, and loyalty, despite the MDW flights being moved to STL offering less connection opportunities.

This may be a good opportunity for WN to add a DEN flight, or copy what F9 did with seasonal flights to PHX and MCO. With the new reservation system, I think DSM would be a good market for them to try less than daily flights to balance capacity with demand.


Cue the "DSM is on the verge of closing" or "DSM is on life support" comments. I agree DEN would be the next logical destination for WN. PHX is a close second. Both are big destinations from central Iowa and I'm pretty sure they could knock F9 off both of these routes. I said this in the other thread, but I think G4 is more affected by F9 flying DSM-LAS and PHX. They're going after the same price conscious passengers who might not otherwise be going on vacation if it wasn't for a cheap ticket. Also, both non-daily and poorly timed. WN is daily, has well timed flights for hotel check-in/check-out in Vegas and is convenient for connections. They'll be fine.

Until they start retiring 73Gs (which I assume is years away) each aircraft delivery after September represents fleet growth so the next several schedule releases should be interesting.
 
User avatar
southwest1675
Posts: 327
Joined: Sun Apr 10, 2016 2:03 am

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Sat May 06, 2017 3:01 pm

BNA-PDX would be nice.
 
Q
Posts: 735
Joined: Sun Sep 24, 2000 10:29 am

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Sat May 06, 2017 3:05 pm

STL-CHS it looks like business between Boeing employees at STL and CHS, too.

Southwest is smart route choice. It can be tourists to see CHS or STL either.

Q
 
User avatar
LotsaRunway
Posts: 114
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 8:23 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Sat May 06, 2017 3:39 pm

At some point, WN needs to improve connectivity to their international markets to support growth in those new markets. FLL is building a nice bank of flights but a lot of the WN system still doesn't have direct links to FLL to connect to those flights. HOU is somewhat better for linkages, but there is still a lot of network that cannot get to most of the carribean without a double connection, which WN doesn't schedule. Perhaps revisiting some marginal FLL markets that were dropped in the past to see if adding international yield makes it work.
 
nadavatar64
Posts: 255
Joined: Mon Jun 30, 2014 2:44 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Sat May 06, 2017 4:05 pm

Q wrote:
STL-CHS it looks like business between Boeing employees at STL and CHS, too.

Southwest is smart route choice. It can be tourists to see CHS or STL either.

Q


It might be, but I think most of the traffic is connecting pax.
Now I think its about time WN start serving FAT! Perhaps FAT-LAS, FAT-PHX or FAT-DEN.
 
Jshank83
Posts: 689
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Sat May 06, 2017 4:35 pm

nadavatar64 wrote:

It might be, but I think most of the traffic is connecting pax.
Now I think its about time WN start serving FAT! Perhaps FAT-LAS, FAT-PHX or FAT-DEN.


West Coast-STL-CHS is set up pretty well for connections during the week at least going west to east.
 
jbmitt
Posts: 543
Joined: Fri Jan 18, 2002 3:59 am

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Sat May 06, 2017 4:38 pm

dbo861 wrote:
jbmitt wrote:
WN at DSM did get new competition from F9 on the LAS route. That's three carriers on the route including G4. At DSM, I think they will have to make a decision to add flights, or watch their passengers flock to cheaper and better flight options. With only three daily flights, that's likely a death sentence. They have been using 738s on some flights, so I think there is demand, and loyalty, despite the MDW flights being moved to STL offering less connection opportunities.

This may be a good opportunity for WN to add a DEN flight, or copy what F9 did with seasonal flights to PHX and MCO. With the new reservation system, I think DSM would be a good market for them to try less than daily flights to balance capacity with demand.


Cue the "DSM is on the verge of closing" or "DSM is on life support" comments. I agree DEN would be the next logical destination for WN. PHX is a close second. Both are big destinations from central Iowa and I'm pretty sure they could knock F9 off both of these routes. I said this in the other thread, but I think G4 is more affected by F9 flying DSM-LAS and PHX. They're going after the same price conscious passengers who might not otherwise be going on vacation if it wasn't for a cheap ticket. Also, both non-daily and poorly timed. WN is daily, has well timed flights for hotel check-in/check-out in Vegas and is convenient for connections. They'll be fine.

Until they start retiring 73Gs (which I assume is years away) each aircraft delivery after September represents fleet growth so the next several schedule releases should be interesting.


We live in Des Moines and try to fly WN as much as possible. We had the companion pass while living in Cincinnati before they even flew there. DL and AA are our next choices when connections/destinations or timing are critical. I think WN going to 5x day in DSM would be huge for us.
 
WaywardMemphian
Posts: 609
Joined: Sat Dec 13, 2014 9:05 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Sat May 06, 2017 5:47 pm

MEM to FFL, LAS, and DEN would be nice adds. Frontier has proven the Den route and I think is about to prove the Vegas route. FFL is high up on daily passengers per day list at MEM yet only served by G4 nonstop at 2x weekly. The DEN route would be an easy steal from Frontier. The LAS route may would come at a cost LIT losing its LAS flight. As a local, I know there's some bleed from Memphis to that flight. Frontier is about to slam that shut.

If they did add more destinations from Memphis that be on top of BWI, MDW, DAL, HOU, TPA and MCO
 
Robert1010
Posts: 66
Joined: Wed Aug 31, 2016 4:23 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Sat May 06, 2017 5:51 pm

Recently was on a WN flt and saw CVG-GCM was coming soon!
 
wnflyguy
Posts: 1073
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Sat May 06, 2017 5:56 pm

I don't expect anything new interms of a new city.
I see WN doing it's yearly shift from summer to winter markets. But unlike scheduling in the past they now can operate a different flight schedule every day of the week vs the old system of Sunday-Friday and Saturday only.
I believe WN adding back something like 14 planes in November-December 4 used 737-700, 5 737-8MAX and 5 737-8NG. Total aircraft will round out to 704. With something like 675 aircraft lines for revenue service. The remaining for MX and spares. These are all just guesses I don't have actual numbers.
As for cities closing if they didn't close any in October it's a safe bet to say NOTHING is going away.
With the new ONE RES I expect to see a dramatic shift in markets like SJU,MCO and LAS. They can use aircraft to connect more markets running less than daily vs the old system.
With the less than daily availability now a option with ONE RES I see a potential for a lot of new markets. Especially in seasonal only adds.
As for RED EYE flying not until they start Hawaii sometime in 2018/2019.
Of course this all hinges on a successful ONE RES switch over this weekend.

With the option of ONE RES I can see using DSM as a example I wouldn't be surprised to see it get a make over. WN could keep it's 2 daily STL flights but now Run DSM-LAS Monday,Wednesday,Friday and Sunday
And Add DSM-MCO or DSM-PHX on Tuesday,Thursday and Saturday. All without adding a additional aircraft.

For international markets I see If The Mexican government Has finally approved the Slot reallocation of MEX.
WN will retime its MEX-HOU service.
But I don't expect them to absolutely abandon there 2330/0530 RON slot.
I wouldn't be surprised to see that slot used to Add new service to BWI or MDW.

Exciting weeks for The New ONE RES WN!
Good luck Fly guy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 25103
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Sat May 06, 2017 6:13 pm

Robert1010 wrote:
Recently was on a WN flt and saw CVG-GCM was coming soon!


It's not.
a.
 
jco613
Posts: 163
Joined: Mon Jun 20, 2016 2:12 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Sat May 06, 2017 7:13 pm

I think we will continue to see FLL growth. MHT return, MKE year-round, MSP going daily in season are all possibilities...I can even see JAX coming back as well as some of the other east coast cities they haven't served in the past...if they're daring enough, maybe SAT, OMA as well. However, we have to remember that while WN will have preferential use of the A gates, Silver, United, Air Canada, Delta, and any other north side airline CAN use it, so it's not like WN will get 5 new gates all for them. One interesting thing is in the fall the connector will be completed, so maybe some of the quieter gates in C can get WN peak flights...perhaps with Silver moving permanently to A5? Just thinking aloud here.

Other than that, I think we'll see seasonal increases/decreases, the return on LAS-ALB. I also would like WN to figure out what they want to do with IAD. First, they make it their WAS-West Coast city since they have no beyond perimeter slots at DCA, but now they are down to DEN and 3 east coast destinations. I don't see it going away soon, but it's frustrating to figure out what they want there.
 
User avatar
cvgComair
Topic Author
Posts: 880
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:48 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Sat May 06, 2017 7:17 pm

Robert1010 wrote:
Recently was on a WN flt and saw CVG-GCM was coming soon!


Certain news organizations did a terrible job with sentence structure. WN is opening new stations in CVG and GCM, not adding routes between them. I even saw some people asking CVGAirport on twitter why they could not find the route on Southwest's website :-). On June 4, 2017, WN is adding FLL-GCM and CVG-BWI/MDW.

I don't think GCM would do very well from CVG, I remember seeing in traffic data somewhere that DL tried it for a very brief period from CVG, I don't remember when, but it must have been a month or two in the 90's. During that time they tried a bunch of short-lived routes like CVG-SJC/AGS/MUC/SJU. I am sure there was absolutely no local traffic on the route.
Next: CVG-IAH, Delta Connection CRJ-700 (GoJet Airlines)
A319/320/332, B712/722/732/733/738/739/752/753/763/764/772/773/788, CRJ-100/2/7/9, ERJ-145/75, MD-88/90, S340
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Posts: 1191
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Sat May 06, 2017 7:37 pm

SJU/PDX-IND and im happy
 
georgiabill
Posts: 937
Joined: Sat Mar 01, 2003 11:53 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Sat May 06, 2017 7:40 pm

I am hping for a daily WN MHT-FLL and MHT-DEN. One can hope!
 
msycajun
Posts: 484
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 4:13 am

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Sat May 06, 2017 8:05 pm

Still hoping that WN will make MSY-RDU/PIT/IND/CMH daily or at least more than 1 weekly. Maybe something like 4x weekly RDU and PIT and 3x IND and CMH would work now that they're doing more less than daily stuff. Although you'd think that if NK can make MSY-CLE work with few connections, WN could make RDU and PIT work as they're about the same size markets and WN has way more connecting options at MSY. A Saturday or Sunday CVG, NAS, SJU, or MBJ flight would be nice.

CUN has also been much talked about and the airport is also pushing for a return of MKE service.
 
User avatar
evanbu
Posts: 90
Joined: Sun Mar 08, 2009 2:27 am

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Sat May 06, 2017 11:21 pm

I feel like WN in DSM is like that girl that you've been dating for around two years. It's either put up or shut up time. Either go all in or break-up. IMO I think WN has done quite well in DSM and they have the potential to be ever better as long as they commit to more flights than 3. It's hard to have a presence in a city when you let other airlines airlines like F9 and G4 run all over you. WN needs to add a Saturday-only MCO flight and daily flights to DEN and PHX.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 12438
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Sat May 06, 2017 11:24 pm

msycajun wrote:
Still hoping that WN will make MSY-RDU/PIT/IND/CMH daily or at least more than 1 weekly. Maybe something like 4x weekly RDU and PIT and 3x IND and CMH would work now that they're doing more less than daily stuff. Although you'd think that if NK can make MSY-CLE work with few connections, WN could make RDU and PIT work as they're about the same size markets and WN has way more connecting options at MSY. A Saturday or Sunday CVG, NAS, SJU, or MBJ flight would be nice.

CUN has also been much talked about and the airport is also pushing for a return of MKE service.


One problem for MSY is that it competes for connecting flows with BNA and STL. In that regard, IND, which has service to neither of those cities, might actually be the best bet on your list.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
Robert1010
Posts: 66
Joined: Wed Aug 31, 2016 4:23 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Sun May 07, 2017 1:05 am

cvgComair wrote:
Robert1010 wrote:
Recently was on a WN flt and saw CVG-GCM was coming soon!


Certain news organizations did a terrible job with sentence structure. WN is opening new stations in CVG and GCM, not adding routes between them. I even saw some people asking CVGAirport on twitter why they could not find the route on Southwest's website :-). On June 4, 2017, WN is adding FLL-GCM and CVG-BWI/MDW.

I don't think GCM would do very well from CVG, I remember seeing in traffic data somewhere that DL tried it for a very brief period from CVG, I don't remember when, but it must have been a month or two in the 90's. During that time they tried a bunch of short-lived routes like CVG-SJC/AGS/MUC/SJU. I am sure there was absolutely no local traffic on the route.

I believe everybody but saw it listed as a future route, I was surprised too, I wouldn't think they would do a Carribean route from a non hub!
 
wnflyguy
Posts: 1073
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictionsand

Sun May 07, 2017 1:32 am

evanbu wrote:
I feel like WN in DSM is like that girl that you've been dating for around two years. It's either put up or shut up time. Either go all in or break-up. IMO I think WN has done quite well in DSM and they have the potential to be ever better as long as they commit to more flights than 3. It's hard to have a presence in a city when you let other airlines airlines like F9 and G4 run all over you. WN needs to add a Saturday-only MCO flight and daily flights to DEN and PHX.


I think DSM will stay at 3 flight until 2018 when positive fleet growth starts between April -December. Until then I think it's going to stay at 3 daily flights.
The only thing I could see changing is Daily DSM-LAS dropped and daily DSM-DEN added.
And on Saturday and Sunday have 1 daily STL, 1 daily DEN and weekend only LAS. Weekend aircraft flow could easily do like a DSM-DEN-DSM-STL-DSM-LAS-DSM.

Or WN could easily do DSM-LAS Tuesday,Thursday,Sunday, DSM-DEN Monday,Wednesday,Friday
DSM-MCO Saturday only
So much potential with ONE RES.

Good luck DSM.

Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
jbmitt
Posts: 543
Joined: Fri Jan 18, 2002 3:59 am

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Sun May 07, 2017 1:32 am

evanbu wrote:
I feel like WN in DSM is like that girl that you've been dating for around two years. It's either put up or shut up time. Either go all in or break-up. IMO I think WN has done quite well in DSM and they have the potential to be ever better as long as they commit to more flights than 3. It's hard to have a presence in a city when you let other airlines airlines like F9 and G4 run all over you. WN needs to add a Saturday-only MCO flight and daily flights to DEN and PHX.



Yes.. I completely agree. With a couple other flights spread throughout the day, it gives passengers the options they need to use WN as their preferred carrier.
 
IPFreely
Posts: 1453
Joined: Sun Dec 24, 2006 8:26 am

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Sun May 07, 2017 2:03 am

Airline market share YTD in DSM is interesting:

AA 31.0%
UA 23.7
DL 23.0
WN 10.0
G4 9.8
F9 1.9

I did not expect AA to be #1 and I did not expect G4 to be doing so well with so few flights. Also it looks like DSM has never embraced WN, nor has WN embraced DSM. With just 3 flights WN doesn't have the frequencies to attract higher yielding business travelers. Without that business how long will they bother keeping the station open? They surely don't have WN employees on the ground 16+ hours a day to handle 3 flights?
 
dbo861
Posts: 895
Joined: Tue May 18, 2004 2:20 am

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Sun May 07, 2017 2:21 am

IPFreely wrote:
Airline market share YTD in DSM is interesting:

AA 31.0%
UA 23.7
DL 23.0
WN 10.0
G4 9.8
F9 1.9

I did not expect AA to be #1 and I did not expect G4 to be doing so well with so few flights. Also it looks like DSM has never embraced WN, nor has WN embraced DSM. With just 3 flights WN doesn't have the frequencies to attract higher yielding business travelers. Without that business how long will they bother keeping the station open? They surely don't have WN employees on the ground 16+ hours a day to handle 3 flights?


Well, considering DSM has 60+ daily scheduled airline flights daily and Southwest accounts for only 3 of those, I'd say 10% isn't bad. Also, WN contracts out ground handling at DSM so it's cheaper than WN employees manning the station. Given the fact you wrote off DSM as a WN station well over a year ago and they stuck around after the drawdown of the 733 fleet, I'd say any credibility you have on this subject is garbage.
 
wwtraveler99
Posts: 219
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2008 11:34 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Sun May 07, 2017 2:25 am

IPFreely wrote:
Airline market share YTD in DSM is interesting:

AA 31.0%
UA 23.7
DL 23.0
WN 10.0
G4 9.8
F9 1.9

They surely don't have WN employees on the ground 16+ hours a day to handle 3 flights?



You are correct they don't have any WN employees, except maybe a manager or supervisor, in DSM. They are all contract employees.


WW
 
IPFreely
Posts: 1453
Joined: Sun Dec 24, 2006 8:26 am

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Sun May 07, 2017 4:06 am

dbo861 wrote:
Given the fact you wrote off DSM as a WN station well over a year ago and they stuck around after the drawdown of the 733 fleet, I'd say any credibility you have on this subject is garbage.


I predicted the end of CAK, DAY, DSM, FNT, and GSP. Let's see what has happened since then. CAK - closed. DAY - closed. DSM - struggling. FNT - struggling and flights cut. GSP - struggling. Of the five stations I predicted would be shut down, two have been shut down and the other three are well on their way. Quite well done by me.
 
phllax
Posts: 379
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 6:53 am

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Sun May 07, 2017 6:02 am

For DSM, keep in mind that the new F9 flight won't even depart DSM until close to 10pm and won't have any connections either. I give it 3 months before it's dropped. The G4 and WN flights are better timed in both directions. The WN flight also has lots of connections to California. and usually continues into one of the California cities. The week of April 10 it continued BUR-SJC-SAN during the week, and continued to SNA on Saturday. This week it's looking like it continues to SJC. Moving it to DEN would further trash yields, and they'd miss out on being able to easily connect people to all western cities like they can at LAS.

In addition, I hear that there that the loads to/from STL for local pax only are averaging over 100/flight.
 
phluser
Posts: 410
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 2:49 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Sun May 07, 2017 9:35 am

phllax wrote:
For DSM, keep in mind that the new F9 flight won't even depart DSM until close to 10pm and won't have any connections either. I give it 3 months before it's dropped.


The F9 DSM-LAS schedule changes on Sep 9th to a 12:45pm departure. It's not unusual behavior by F9. When it brought back the seasonal TTN-ORD as daily, it was for a month as a 6am departure before moving to a more accessible time later in the day.
 
flydulles
Posts: 56
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2016 3:59 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Mon May 08, 2017 6:19 pm

is southwest big in phoneix? cause i think they do good dulles to phoneix!
 
jplatts
Posts: 580
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Mon May 08, 2017 8:10 pm

jbmitt wrote:
WN at DSM did get new competition from F9 on the LAS route. That's three carriers on the route including G4. At DSM, I think they will have to make a decision to add flights, or watch their passengers flock to cheaper and better flight options. With only three daily flights, that's likely a death sentence. They have been using 738s on some flights, so I think there is demand, and loyalty, despite the MDW flights being moved to STL offering less connection opportunities.

This may be a good opportunity for WN to add a DEN flight, or copy what F9 did with seasonal flights to PHX and MCO. With the new reservation system, I think DSM would be a good market for them to try less than daily flights to balance capacity with demand.


Southwest might be able to squeeze in a DSM-DAL nonstop, but there is limited room for Southwest to expand at DAL and there are other markets not currently served nonstop from DAL that Southwest would want to go to nonstop from DAL before it adds DSM-DAL nonstop service.
 
jplatts
Posts: 580
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Mon May 08, 2017 8:22 pm

Would Southwest move some of the SEA-OAK nonstops to SFO? There is so much demand for SEA-SFO nonstops, and SFO is closer to downtown San Francisco and to the northern part of Silicon Valley than OAK is. Southwest will be doing 7 daily nonstops between SEA and OAK starting in August, and Southwest does have room to do SEA-SFO nonstops if it has room at SFO to do SEA-SFO nonstops and if it moves at least one of the SEA-OAK nonstops to SFO.
 
ucdtim17
Posts: 211
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2016 6:38 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Mon May 08, 2017 9:01 pm

jplatts wrote:
Would Southwest move some of the SEA-OAK nonstops to SFO? There is so much demand for SEA-SFO nonstops, and SFO is closer to downtown San Francisco and to the northern part of Silicon Valley than OAK is. Southwest will be doing 7 daily nonstops between SEA and OAK starting in August, and Southwest does have room to do SEA-SFO nonstops if it has room at SFO to do SEA-SFO nonstops and if it moves at least one of the SEA-OAK nonstops to SFO.


SFO is marginally closer to downtown SF. On BART, it's equidistant to Embarcadero, 5 min longer from OAK to Montgomery Street (the center of downtown).

I don't expect WN would be eager to jump in against UA and AS/VX there, but they did start SFO-PDX so I guess it's possible.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Posts: 1191
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Mon May 08, 2017 10:29 pm

flydulles wrote:
is southwest big in phoneix? cause i think they do good dulles to phoneix!


Yes, Phoenix a hub for southwest, and southwest only has four flights out of Dulles so I doubt that will happen, but it is a possibility.
 
flydulles
Posts: 56
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2016 3:59 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Mon May 08, 2017 10:46 pm

frontier is really expanding dulles southwest ! https://flights.flyfrontier.com/en/flig ... washington
 
flydulles
Posts: 56
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2016 3:59 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Mon May 08, 2017 11:05 pm

Would love to see them go back to dulles midway!
 
flydulles
Posts: 56
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2016 3:59 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Mon May 08, 2017 11:50 pm

They should do dulles sfo dulles lax
 
phluser
Posts: 410
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 2:49 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Tue May 09, 2017 2:03 am

Midwestindy wrote:
flydulles wrote:
is southwest big in phoneix? cause i think they do good dulles to phoneix!


Yes, Phoenix a hub for southwest, and southwest only has four flights out of Dulles so I doubt that will happen, but it is a possibility.


It won't be a level playing field since AA has three daily perimeter exempt flights on PHX-DCA. If there were no perimeter exempt flights from PHX-DCA, then Southwest might be inclined to compete on PHX-IAD. Southwest has been focusing on PHX-BWI where it has the hub strength of the BWI side Fares on PHX-BWI aren't really any lower than PHX-DCA, interestingly enough, even though DCA is supposed to be the "premium" airport in the area.
 
phluser
Posts: 410
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 2:49 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Tue May 09, 2017 2:09 am

jplatts wrote:
Would Southwest move some of the SEA-OAK nonstops to SFO?


It could add SEA-SFO, but I don't think it would dilute SEA-OAK frequency. Frequency is an important to keep high yielding pax on short haul flights between major markets in the West. Also OAK is somewhat more of a hub. e.g. CMH-OAK might depend on some connections with some pax connecting and going up to SEA, so losing flights might make connections less likely.
 
jetmatt777
Crew
Posts: 3229
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2005 2:16 am

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Wed May 10, 2017 4:13 am

I'd like to see OKC-MCO. They are currently running it Sunday only for a few months as a trial. I don't even think they put out a press release about it. It just showed up in the schedules.
Lighten up while you still can, don't even try to understand, just find a place to make your stand and take it easy
 
User avatar
Jetsgo
Posts: 2705
Joined: Thu Jul 17, 2003 6:31 am

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Wed May 10, 2017 5:01 am

Is there any chance of seeing RNO-SFO in the near future? The UA monopoly and subsequent price gouging is fatiguing. WN currently operates RNO-OAK and will soon be starting RNO-SJC alongside QX.
Marine Corps Aviation, The Last To Let You Down!
 
jplatts
Posts: 580
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Fri May 12, 2017 8:40 pm

Southwest has room to expand domestically from Houston Hobby to SFO, SMF, MSP, MKE, DTW, CVG, CMH, and CLE. I am not sure if Southwest will announce any nonstop routes to these destinations on May 18th, but I believe that Southwest will eventually add nonstops to some of these destinations from HOU.
 
usflyguy
Posts: 1659
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:29 am

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Mon May 15, 2017 1:19 pm

Another new international destination.
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
User avatar
LotsaRunway
Posts: 114
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 8:23 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Mon May 15, 2017 1:48 pm

Since this is for the end of the year holiday period, I would be very surprised if they opened any new markets with this schedule. I also think, there will be some traditional non-peak schedule trimming. Dots to sunny location could get connected, and I'm still thinking FLL needs better connectivity to feed those international flights at the growing hub. The longer WN waits, the stronger B6 becomes there. There are some other Florida to other dots that could be seasonally connected for the cold weather season.

Max watch: Thus far, it appears the Max8 is just getting rotated in the the schedule without any special mission to capitalize on its functionality. When and where will this new bird be put to the test to showcase what it can do? I'm surprised they are not already taking over the transcons from BWI and MCO.
 
SFOATLFlyer
Posts: 130
Joined: Fri May 12, 2017 9:51 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Mon May 15, 2017 2:42 pm

IPFreely wrote:
dbo861 wrote:
Given the fact you wrote off DSM as a WN station well over a year ago and they stuck around after the drawdown of the 733 fleet, I'd say any credibility you have on this subject is garbage.


I predicted the end of CAK, DAY, DSM, FNT, and GSP. Let's see what has happened since then. CAK - closed. DAY - closed. DSM - struggling. FNT - struggling and flights cut. GSP - struggling. Of the five stations I predicted would be shut down, two have been shut down and the other three are well on their way. Quite well done by me.


Don't break your arm patting yourself on the back. I seem to recall quite a few people make the same calls. It's doesn't take a genius to see where an airline is struggling.
 
User avatar
United_fan
Posts: 6454
Joined: Fri Nov 24, 2000 11:11 am

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Mon May 15, 2017 2:46 pm

I wish WN would do ROC-FLL during the Winter . Saturdays and Sundays would be nice . Saves me a drive to BUF.
Champagne For My Real Friends,and Real Pain For My Sham Friends

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos