dc10lover
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Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Wed May 17, 2017 10:39 pm

And is there anyway Southwest can expand in Seattle? I wish Southwest was growing in Seattle like Delta is now instead of Delta.
Ever Wish You Can Go Back In Time And Live In An Earlier Era Of Aviation?
 
Jshank83
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Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Wed May 17, 2017 11:18 pm

stl07 wrote:
I'm not so sure about STL-CUN. F9 already flies a daily a321 and adds in extra flights sometimes when they know there is demand. Unless they are able to beat Frontier's pricing, there would be no need for customers to switch over. Vacation packages default to F9's flight for airfare. I would think it would be smarter to launch a flight to PVR/SJD/HUX or a Caribbean island


Gate agents are the ones who told me they thought it was being added (Although he did say it wasn't 100% going to happen and this was in December just as an FYI). The same one told me about them adding gates before it was public knowledge. I would guess WN could route other people through STL so it doesnt have to be all people coming from STL. I would pay more to fly WN over F9 but I really have no clue what will actually happen with it.
 
Midwestindy
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Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Wed May 17, 2017 11:43 pm

WaywardMemphian wrote:
SunsetLimited wrote:
For the record, the F9 MEM-DEN is going back to an A320.

I do see some more WN growth at MEM, maybe 2X daily DEN to start. I don't really see LAS since with both F9 and G4 on the route the local O&D is likely covered, and DEN could handle western connections with ease. FLL - perhaps a Saturday-only flight for starters.

Point is, there is some untapped demand in MEM. Not a crazy amount, but ultimately I can see WN get up to around 20 flights/day from the city.


Any flight that WN adds to an Allegiqnt or Frontier destination will likely come at the expense of their service to it. The folks will simply switch to Southwest.

Frontier likely went back to a 320 because of the loss of connecting traffic to LAS.

Let's compare two cities in Tenn. Memphis and Nashville. Now, Nashville has been the economic better of the two since the mid 90's. There's no sugarcoating that. There's a multitude of reasons. WN moved onto Nashville when it was "under" Memphis via American dehubbing. But let's get on with the point. What are the CSAs of the two cities today. This is the likely immediate catchment areas of MEM and BNA.

Memphis:
The greater Mid-South area as a whole has a population of 2.4 million according to 2013 census estimates. This area is covered by Memphis local news channels and includes the Missouri Bootheel, Northeast Arkansas, West Tennessee, and North
Mississippi.

Nashville:
The Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro, TN, Combined Statistical Area (CSA) is the result of the addition of the Micropolitan Statistical Areas of Shelbyville (Bedford County), Lawrenceburg (Lawrence County) and Lewisburg (Marshall County) to the Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN, Metropolitan Statistical Area. The estimated population of the CSA as of July 1, 2016, was 1,987,778.

Combine the fact that Memphis and Little Rock are 2 hours apart and any potential "destination" nonstop adds at MEM is likely to see some bleed from the Little Rock area whose CSA is over 800,000.

The point is this. Memphis had been so suppressed after years of expensive hub domination no one really knows what Memphis can be as an O&D airport.

Someone, like WN in STL and BNA, will reap the benefits as folks consider flying instead of driving thanks to better pricing. Some folks simply drove to places 10 plus hrs away simply due to the cost of MEM at the time. I can't tell you how many people just drove to Florida for vacation that are now flying in just the past couple of years.


Population is irrevelent if the people in the area can't afford to fly.

18.4 percent of the metro area's 1.3 million-plus residents were living on less than the federal poverty threshold of $24,250 for a four-member household

Among the 53 metro areas in the nation with populations of at least 1 million, Memphis is second poorest metro

The average income of Nashville is $57,985, the average income of Memphis is $48,524. Meaning a larger percentage of the population can afford to fly in Nashville.

Nashville's economy is a lot more geared towards flying as well, with a lot of insurance and finance jobs, plus companies like DELL, NISSAN, BRIDGESTONE who have lots of corporate clients that are flying to and from BNA to the west and east coast (Not to mention it is the home of country music which adds tourism).

The economy of memphis is not suited for lots of air travel because a lot of its jobs are distrubtion based, and most of the larger companies have corporate offices elsewhere. The large companies like Nike and Fedex that have large presences there don't generate air traffic, because a majority of there workers in MEM can only afford to fly once a year (if that). Memphis has lots of jobs in the rail, trucking, and freight industries but the people who work these jobs (like I mentioned) do not fly often or at all.

To have a lot of air service, a city has to have a mix of corportate, tourism, and leisure passengers. MEM doesn't have the mix to fill planes during the non-vaction seasons, because it lacks the business passengers that airports like BNA have. Instead of comparing airservice at MEM to BNA, better comparisons would be OKC, SDF, BUF.
 
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AVLAirlineFreq
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Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 1:33 am

WaywardMemphian wrote:

Any flight that WN adds to an Allegiqnt or Frontier destination will likely come at the expense of their service to it. The folks will simply switch to Southwest.



Not necessarily. WN usually operates at quite a premium to G4 and F9. And there are now several markets where G4 and F9 are coexisting nicely with WN.
 
Jshank83
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Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 2:33 am

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
WaywardMemphian wrote:

Any flight that WN adds to an Allegiqnt or Frontier destination will likely come at the expense of their service to it. The folks will simply switch to Southwest.



Not necessarily. WN usually operates at quite a premium to G4 and F9. And there are now several markets where G4 and F9 are coexisting nicely with WN.



I would think G4 and F9 (and NK?) compete more with each other than with WN. Maybe put F9 a little above NK and G4 but those three seem like they go after the same customer for the most part.
 
SFOATLFlyer
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Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 3:21 am

upwardfacing wrote:
SFOATLFlyer wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

Nice location I can definitely agree with, underserved I can not agree with. To be honest very few airports these days are truly underserved and STL is not one of them, especially on WN. I mean C'mon STL has flights to TUL, ICT, DSM, OMA, and 40 other cities on WN, how is that underserved. Especially with an economy that is lagging behind other WN stations like BNA and AUS. STL is very lucky to have its location or else most of its flights would be gone


If anything, STL was overly served at the height of the TWA hub. Just being in the center of the country doesn't mean a city should be a hub. Folks in KC can attest to that. STL has a very good mix of ops from WN. There may be adds, but it'll never be the size of WN's major hubs (yes, they are hubs regardless of WN's designations).


Fair enough; I was thinking in terms of constraints for Southwest at MDW.


You know on that I agree. I thought I read there was a plan to squeeze a couple extra gates in at MDW but I could be wrong. I believe they are getting the use of 2 additional gates at BNA that were shuttered after AA pulled the hub, but again not sure. My airline buddy doesn't work there any more. IMO, the opening of DAL is less convenient for people making cnx, especially since a lot of the newer cities only get 1-2 flights a day. Can make for a long connection wait.
 
SFOATLFlyer
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Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 3:25 am

WaywardMemphian wrote:
Memphis:
The greater Mid-South area as a whole has a population of 2.4 million according to 2013 census estimates. This area is covered by Memphis local news channels and includes the Missouri Bootheel, Northeast Arkansas, West Tennessee, and North
Mississippi.

Nashville:
The Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro, TN, Combined Statistical Area (CSA) is the result of the addition of the Micropolitan Statistical Areas of Shelbyville (Bedford County), Lawrenceburg (Lawrence County) and Lewisburg (Marshall County) to the Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN, Metropolitan Statistical Area. The estimated population of the CSA as of July 1, 2016, was 1,987,778.

Combine the fact that Memphis and Little Rock are 2 hours apart and any potential "destination" nonstop adds at MEM is likely to see some bleed from the Little Rock area whose CSA is over 800,000.




Actually, I'm just pulling the numbers straight off the census website and comparing the growth rate of both metro areas. I do know BNA gets some HSV bleed. Then again I know people who drive to Knoxville to catch G4 to Florida. It's probably a wash.
 
jplatts
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Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 3:29 am

dc10lover wrote:
And is there anyway Southwest can expand in Seattle? I wish Southwest was growing in Seattle like Delta is now instead of Delta.


Southwest is adding additional nonstops from Seattle to Chicago Midway, Denver, Sacramento, and San Diego starting on June 4th. In addition, Southwest will be adding an additional nonstop from Seattle to Oakland starting on August 15th.
 
SFOATLFlyer
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Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 3:30 am

dc10lover wrote:
And is there anyway Southwest can expand in Seattle? I wish Southwest was growing in Seattle like Delta is now instead of Delta.


SEA is bursting at the seams. If the terminal is built at PAE, I dunno. Maybe a few flights to DEN and into California. I know they wanted to go into BFI bigly at one point.
 
SFOATLFlyer
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Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 3:37 am

Midwestindy wrote:
WaywardMemphian wrote:
SunsetLimited wrote:
For the record, the F9 MEM-DEN is going back to an A320.

I do see some more WN growth at MEM, maybe 2X daily DEN to start. I don't really see LAS since with both F9 and G4 on the route the local O&D is likely covered, and DEN could handle western connections with ease. FLL - perhaps a Saturday-only flight for starters.

Point is, there is some untapped demand in MEM. Not a crazy amount, but ultimately I can see WN get up to around 20 flights/day from the city.


Any flight that WN adds to an Allegiqnt or Frontier destination will likely come at the expense of their service to it. The folks will simply switch to Southwest.

Frontier likely went back to a 320 because of the loss of connecting traffic to LAS.

Let's compare two cities in Tenn. Memphis and Nashville. Now, Nashville has been the economic better of the two since the mid 90's. There's no sugarcoating that. There's a multitude of reasons. WN moved onto Nashville when it was "under" Memphis via American dehubbing. But let's get on with the point. What are the CSAs of the two cities today. This is the likely immediate catchment areas of MEM and BNA.

Memphis:
The greater Mid-South area as a whole has a population of 2.4 million according to 2013 census estimates. This area is covered by Memphis local news channels and includes the Missouri Bootheel, Northeast Arkansas, West Tennessee, and North
Mississippi.

Nashville:
The Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro, TN, Combined Statistical Area (CSA) is the result of the addition of the Micropolitan Statistical Areas of Shelbyville (Bedford County), Lawrenceburg (Lawrence County) and Lewisburg (Marshall County) to the Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN, Metropolitan Statistical Area. The estimated population of the CSA as of July 1, 2016, was 1,987,778.

Combine the fact that Memphis and Little Rock are 2 hours apart and any potential "destination" nonstop adds at MEM is likely to see some bleed from the Little Rock area whose CSA is over 800,000.

The point is this. Memphis had been so suppressed after years of expensive hub domination no one really knows what Memphis can be as an O&D airport.

Someone, like WN in STL and BNA, will reap the benefits as folks consider flying instead of driving thanks to better pricing. Some folks simply drove to places 10 plus hrs away simply due to the cost of MEM at the time. I can't tell you how many people just drove to Florida for vacation that are now flying in just the past couple of years.


Population is irrevelent if the people in the area can't afford to fly.

18.4 percent of the metro area's 1.3 million-plus residents were living on less than the federal poverty threshold of $24,250 for a four-member household

Among the 53 metro areas in the nation with populations of at least 1 million, Memphis is second poorest metro

The average income of Nashville is $57,985, the average income of Memphis is $48,524. Meaning a larger percentage of the population can afford to fly in Nashville.

Nashville's economy is a lot more geared towards flying as well, with a lot of insurance and finance jobs, plus companies like DELL, NISSAN, BRIDGESTONE who have lots of corporate clients that are flying to and from BNA to the west and east coast (Not to mention it is the home of country music which adds tourism).

The economy of memphis is not suited for lots of air travel because a lot of its jobs are distrubtion based, and most of the larger companies have corporate offices elsewhere. The large companies like Nike and Fedex that have large presences there don't generate air traffic, because a majority of there workers in MEM can only afford to fly once a year (if that). Memphis has lots of jobs in the rail, trucking, and freight industries but the people who work these jobs (like I mentioned) do not fly often or at all.

To have a lot of air service, a city has to have a mix of corportate, tourism, and leisure passengers. MEM doesn't have the mix to fill planes during the non-vaction seasons, because it lacks the business passengers that airports like BNA have. Instead of comparing airservice at MEM to BNA, better comparisons would be OKC, SDF, BUF.


Not disputing your numbers, just an observation. I see steady growth at BNA. People here are frothing at the possibility of BA to London, some even JL to NRT given the Nissan/Consulate is here. Maybe even Norwegian. BNA will get an international flight or two once the new FIS is completed on A concourse. Nashville however is quickly becoming an unaffordable place to live. 1200'ish square foot houses in East Nashville and Inglewood are fetching anywhere from 400K to 1 million. Those numbers may sound in line with a lot of cities, but it's causing massive sticker shock. A lot of people people are fleeing to the surrounding counties, but they still make it an attractive destination.
 
jwvw89
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Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 3:43 am

SFOATLFlyer wrote:
dc10lover wrote:
And is there anyway Southwest can expand in Seattle? I wish Southwest was growing in Seattle like Delta is now instead of Delta.


SEA is bursting at the seams. If the terminal is built at PAE, I dunno. Maybe a few flights to DEN and into California. I know they wanted to go into BFI bigly at one point.



PAE is getting a terminal. AS announced their plans today to serve the airport in 2018.
 
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SteveXC500
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Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 11:17 am

MSP-MKE gets cut. Makes sense with horrible loads. I guess this means fares go up for DL.

As for the rest of MSP, no new adds or other deletions. I believe one MDW and one STL flight are out for the winter months (normal), bringing MSP back down to 23 departures.
7x MDW, 2x STL, ATL, BWI, MCI, PHX, 1x BNA, 5x DEN
 
lakeeffect
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Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 11:19 am

I see a 2x daily CLE-MKE addition with this extension. Definitely didn't see that coming.
 
ryanrap1
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Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 11:33 am

Can someone post the PDF of changes ?
Anyone know any additions or cuts for SAT?
 
msycajun
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Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 11:36 am

I don't see any major changes for MSY just yet, but did notice MSY-LGA is showing up as nonstop on the route map. Maybe the schedule isn't fully loaded yet.
 
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knope2001
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Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 11:38 am

Based on MKE changes I have a feeling there are some surprises out there.

MKE-BNA new 2x/day
MKE-CLE new 2x/day
MKE-STL increases to 2x
MKE-MSP ends
MKE-SFO ends...likely seasonal?
MKE-SAN ends...likely seasonal?

Seeing some other frequency changes but at the moment I don't have time to see if they are lasting or just certain days. Southwest seems to be doing a more adjustments within a schedule period to reflect peaks and valleys.

I'd guess there are a whole lot of other changes out there waiting to be found.

Note on MKE-CLE. United has been flying 2x/day with 50-seat RJ's even since the Cleveland hub closed a couple years ago with decent loads and absurdly-high prices. It's the only RJ point-to-point flight which survived the post-hub Cleveland operation beyond BOS/LGA/DCA. No telling if this will succeed for WN or not, of course, but it's not quite as WTF as it might first seem. United will almost certainly pull the plug on the RJ's.
Last edited by knope2001 on Thu May 18, 2017 11:51 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
jco613
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Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 11:47 am

doing a little digging so give me some time...

looks like FLL-PUJ and SJO is added. I do not see PLS yet. No domestic CITY adds at FLL that I can see. looking at frequencies next.

Scored a trip Dec 20-25 BDL-FLL, OW on B6 OW on WN for just under $300! Furthest out I've ever booked a trip, but worth it!
 
lakeeffect
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Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 12:05 pm

knope2001 wrote:
Note on MKE-CLE. United has been flying 2x/day with 50-seat RJ's even since the Cleveland hub closed a couple years ago with decent loads and absurdly-high prices. It's the only RJ point-to-point flight which survived the post-hub Cleveland operation beyond BOS/LGA/DCA. No telling if this will succeed for WN or not, of course, but it's not quite as WTF as it might first seem. United will almost certainly pull the plug on the RJ's.


UA also operated CLE-STL with an RJ up until last spring. UA discontinued that route 3 weeks before WN launched it. We'll see how much UA wants to defend this CLE-MKE route, but I can't see it lasting much longer.

There are quite a few business ties between CLE and MKE so I think this should work for WN. I'm not sure what connections these flights could be timed for in MKE, but that might help fill some seats beyond O&D.
 
izbtmnhd
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Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 12:21 pm

knope2001 wrote:
Based on MKE changes I have a feeling there are some surprises out there.

MKE-BNA new 2x/day
MKE-CLE new 2x/day
MKE-STL increases to 2x
MKE-MSP ends
MKE-SFO ends...likely seasonal?
MKE-SAN ends...likely seasonal?

Seeing some other frequency changes but at the moment I don't have time to see if they are lasting or just certain days. Southwest seems to be doing a more adjustments within a schedule period to reflect peaks and valleys.

I'd guess there are a whole lot of other changes out there waiting to be found.

Note on MKE-CLE. United has been flying 2x/day with 50-seat RJ's even since the Cleveland hub closed a couple years ago with decent loads and absurdly-high prices. It's the only RJ point-to-point flight which survived the post-hub Cleveland operation beyond BOS/LGA/DCA. No telling if this will succeed for WN or not, of course, but it's not quite as WTF as it might first seem. United will almost certainly pull the plug on the RJ's.


Not quite sure why anyone would see a second CLE-MKE as a WTF. Those two markets that share a lot of business ties. It's a positive sign for CLE that WN is expanding beyond the additions from CAK. It's been a while since WN took notice of CLE but maybe they were waiting for the CAK/CLE situation to work itself out after the AirTran merger. Bookings for those old CAK routes must be OK and maybe they smell a bit of blood in the water with UA.
 
jco613
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Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 12:30 pm

izbtmnhd wrote:
knope2001 wrote:
Based on MKE changes I have a feeling there are some surprises out there.

MKE-BNA new 2x/day
MKE-CLE new 2x/day
MKE-STL increases to 2x
MKE-MSP ends
MKE-SFO ends...likely seasonal?
MKE-SAN ends...likely seasonal?

Seeing some other frequency changes but at the moment I don't have time to see if they are lasting or just certain days. Southwest seems to be doing a more adjustments within a schedule period to reflect peaks and valleys.

I'd guess there are a whole lot of other changes out there waiting to be found.

Note on MKE-CLE. United has been flying 2x/day with 50-seat RJ's even since the Cleveland hub closed a couple years ago with decent loads and absurdly-high prices. It's the only RJ point-to-point flight which survived the post-hub Cleveland operation beyond BOS/LGA/DCA. No telling if this will succeed for WN or not, of course, but it's not quite as WTF as it might first seem. United will almost certainly pull the plug on the RJ's.


Not quite sure why anyone would see a second CLE-MKE as a WTF. Those two markets that share a lot of business ties. It's a positive sign for CLE that WN is expanding beyond the additions from CAK. It's been a while since WN took notice of CLE but maybe they were waiting for the CAK/CLE situation to work itself out after the AirTran merger. Bookings for those old CAK routes must be OK and maybe they smell a bit of blood in the water with UA.


Didn't WN try MKE-CAK over MDW-CAK for this reason? We'll see what happens on CLE but CAK had a lot of people head scratching.
 
izbtmnhd
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Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 12:40 pm

jco613 wrote:
izbtmnhd wrote:
knope2001 wrote:
Based on MKE changes I have a feeling there are some surprises out there.

MKE-BNA new 2x/day
MKE-CLE new 2x/day
MKE-STL increases to 2x
MKE-MSP ends
MKE-SFO ends...likely seasonal?
MKE-SAN ends...likely seasonal?

Seeing some other frequency changes but at the moment I don't have time to see if they are lasting or just certain days. Southwest seems to be doing a more adjustments within a schedule period to reflect peaks and valleys.

I'd guess there are a whole lot of other changes out there waiting to be found.

Note on MKE-CLE. United has been flying 2x/day with 50-seat RJ's even since the Cleveland hub closed a couple years ago with decent loads and absurdly-high prices. It's the only RJ point-to-point flight which survived the post-hub Cleveland operation beyond BOS/LGA/DCA. No telling if this will succeed for WN or not, of course, but it's not quite as WTF as it might first seem. United will almost certainly pull the plug on the RJ's.


Not quite sure why anyone would see a second CLE-MKE as a WTF. Those two markets that share a lot of business ties. It's a positive sign for CLE that WN is expanding beyond the additions from CAK. It's been a while since WN took notice of CLE but maybe they were waiting for the CAK/CLE situation to work itself out after the AirTran merger. Bookings for those old CAK routes must be OK and maybe they smell a bit of blood in the water with UA.


Didn't WN try MKE-CAK over MDW-CAK for this reason? We'll see what happens on CLE but CAK had a lot of people head scratching.


I think this will work better with the consolidated operation at CLE. Maybe WN is just trying to scare UA off and drop the second flight once they move off. Time will tell. The fact that WN is tinkering with CLE is interesting since the airline kind of ran a status-quo schedule for several years.
 
jco613
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Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 12:44 pm

jco613 wrote:
doing a little digging so give me some time...

looks like FLL-PUJ and SJO is added. I do not see PLS yet. No domestic CITY adds at FLL that I can see. looking at frequencies next.

Scored a trip Dec 20-25 BDL-FLL, OW on B6 OW on WN for just under $300! Furthest out I've ever booked a trip, but worth it!


FLL-STL goes to 2X daily...only domestic add I saw. ALB is cut at select times as well. Other than that, status quo
 
flydulles
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Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 12:47 pm

where are you all going to find this stuff already on today's schedule release i thought the route map takes hours to upload?
 
RL757PVD
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Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 12:53 pm

Looks like WN is hitting the peaks harder than ever. PVD ranges from 17x on the slowest days (mid week early dec) to as high as 26x on the Sunday after Thanksgiving. There are a bunch of peak days at 25x (so far only the Sunday 11/26 shows an 11pm PVD-BWI).
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
Jshank83
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Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 1:07 pm

STL-CUN Saturday only it looks like is added. I was hoping for more than once a week but I'll take it.

I thought turks and caicos was supposed to be bookable from FLL today?
 
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modernArt
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Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 1:08 pm

ryanrap1 wrote:
Anyone know any additions or cuts for SAT?


The online non-stop route map is showing San Antonio - LaGuardia. Could only be a Saturday only flight. Otherwise, nothing else newly non-stop from SAT.
Last edited by modernArt on Thu May 18, 2017 1:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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southwest1675
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Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 1:10 pm

BNA has an air service announcement from WN at 8:30. I see they added MKE.
Herb Kelleher>Gary Kelly
 
WaywardMemphian
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Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 1:16 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
WaywardMemphian wrote:
SunsetLimited wrote:
For the record, the F9 MEM-DEN is going back to an A320.

I do see some more WN growth at MEM, maybe 2X daily DEN to start. I don't really see LAS since with both F9 and G4 on the route the local O&D is likely covered, and DEN could handle western connections with ease. FLL - perhaps a Saturday-only flight for starters.

Point is, there is some untapped demand in MEM. Not a crazy amount, but ultimately I can see WN get up to around 20 flights/day from the city.


Any flight that WN adds to an Allegiqnt or Frontier destination will likely come at the expense of their service to it. The folks will simply switch to Southwest.

Frontier likely went back to a 320 because of the loss of connecting traffic to LAS.

Let's compare two cities in Tenn. Memphis and Nashville. Now, Nashville has been the economic better of the two since the mid 90's. There's no sugarcoating that. There's a multitude of reasons. WN moved onto Nashville when it was "under" Memphis via American dehubbing. But let's get on with the point. What are the CSAs of the two cities today. This is the likely immediate catchment areas of MEM and BNA.

Memphis:
The greater Mid-South area as a whole has a population of 2.4 million according to 2013 census estimates. This area is covered by Memphis local news channels and includes the Missouri Bootheel, Northeast Arkansas, West Tennessee, and North
Mississippi.

Nashville:
The Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro, TN, Combined Statistical Area (CSA) is the result of the addition of the Micropolitan Statistical Areas of Shelbyville (Bedford County), Lawrenceburg (Lawrence County) and Lewisburg (Marshall County) to the Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN, Metropolitan Statistical Area. The estimated population of the CSA as of July 1, 2016, was 1,987,778.

Combine the fact that Memphis and Little Rock are 2 hours apart and any potential "destination" nonstop adds at MEM is likely to see some bleed from the Little Rock area whose CSA is over 800,000.

The point is this. Memphis had been so suppressed after years of expensive hub domination no one really knows what Memphis can be as an O&D airport.

Someone, like WN in STL and BNA, will reap the benefits as folks consider flying instead of driving thanks to better pricing. Some folks simply drove to places 10 plus hrs away simply due to the cost of MEM at the time. I can't tell you how many people just drove to Florida for vacation that are now flying in just the past couple of years.


Population is irrevelent if the people in the area can't afford to fly.

18.4 percent of the metro area's 1.3 million-plus residents were living on less than the federal poverty threshold of $24,250 for a four-member household

Among the 53 metro areas in the nation with populations of at least 1 million, Memphis is second poorest metro

The average income of Nashville is $57,985, the average income of Memphis is $48,524. Meaning a larger percentage of the population can afford to fly in Nashville.

Nashville's economy is a lot more geared towards flying as well, with a lot of insurance and finance jobs, plus companies like DELL, NISSAN, BRIDGESTONE who have lots of corporate clients that are flying to and from BNA to the west and east coast (Not to mention it is the home of country music which adds tourism).

The economy of memphis is not suited for lots of air travel because a lot of its jobs are distrubtion based, and most of the larger companies have corporate offices elsewhere. The large companies like Nike and Fedex that have large presences there don't generate air traffic, because a majority of there workers in MEM can only afford to fly once a year (if that). Memphis has lots of jobs in the rail, trucking, and freight industries but the people who work these jobs (like I mentioned) do not fly often or at all.

To have a lot of air service, a city has to have a mix of corportate, tourism, and leisure passengers. MEM doesn't have the mix to fill planes during the non-vaction seasons, because it lacks the business passengers that airports like BNA have. Instead of comparing airservice at MEM to BNA, better comparisons would be OKC, SDF, BUF.


Yawn.
http://www.realtor.com/news/trends/wher ... o-in-2016/

http://www.bizjournals.com/memphis/news ... mphis.html

http://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/10-chea ... -the-us/2/
Memphis be the next boom town in the South with some competent leadership at the Mayor's office now. Lot's of signs to point to it

Most Memphians relish the fact we are considered the redheaded stepchild of Tennessee and when you're bad, they put you in a corner mantas. It's fine, we'll keep on keeping on.
 
Dominion301
Posts: 486
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Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 1:22 pm

modernArt wrote:
ryanrap1 wrote:
Anyone know any additions or cuts for SAT?


The online non-stop route map is showing San Antonio - LaGuardia. Could only be a Saturday only flight. Otherwise, nothing else newly non-stop from SAT.


Isn't SAT-LGA just outside of LGA's perimeter rule? That means WN are restricted to Saturday-only beyond perimeter flights. In other words quite the add for SAT.
 
joeljack
Posts: 540
Joined: Fri Feb 25, 2005 12:38 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 1:23 pm

Looks like OMA doesn't see its MCO-OMA Saturday only flight come back. This is weird considering it is daily during the summer this summer and was 2x weekly last march. I was hoping this would slowly build up to daily year round. Guess not.

OMA-DAL goes to 2x daily from 1x daily. Nice schedule for a business traveler too.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 12265
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 1:25 pm

SFOATLFlyer wrote:
upwardfacing wrote:
SFOATLFlyer wrote:

If anything, STL was overly served at the height of the TWA hub. Just being in the center of the country doesn't mean a city should be a hub. Folks in KC can attest to that. STL has a very good mix of ops from WN. There may be adds, but it'll never be the size of WN's major hubs (yes, they are hubs regardless of WN's designations).


Fair enough; I was thinking in terms of constraints for Southwest at MDW.


You know on that I agree. I thought I read there was a plan to squeeze a couple extra gates in at MDW but I could be wrong. I believe they are getting the use of 2 additional gates at BNA that were shuttered after AA pulled the hub, but again not sure. My airline buddy doesn't work there any more. IMO, the opening of DAL is less convenient for people making cnx, especially since a lot of the newer cities only get 1-2 flights a day. Can make for a long connection wait.


The two gates in BNA (C15 and C17) are up, running and very much in use. I don't know where they would put more gates at MDW, but there is definitely gate space for more flights at MDW if they want to go that direction. It would not be much fun without some improvements landside, though.

southwest1675 wrote:
BNA has an air service announcement from WN at 8:30. I see they added MKE.


I think it's just MKE, although that is a nice add with some opportunities for connections at both ends. It will make my life a whole lot easier and will, I think, capture some passengers who are flying BNA-ORD and driving because MDW-MKE Is a longer drive and many of the connecting options on BNA-MKE today are not convenient.

When I was looking for possible new flights, I noted that WN has added some three stop, one plane change itineraries (I saw BNA-MDW-PIT-BWI-PBI and BNA-HOU-MEM-TPA-SJU). I assume that is not unique to BNA.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
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southwest1675
Posts: 268
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Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 1:29 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
SFOATLFlyer wrote:
upwardfacing wrote:

Fair enough; I was thinking in terms of constraints for Southwest at MDW.


You know on that I agree. I thought I read there was a plan to squeeze a couple extra gates in at MDW but I could be wrong. I believe they are getting the use of 2 additional gates at BNA that were shuttered after AA pulled the hub, but again not sure. My airline buddy doesn't work there any more. IMO, the opening of DAL is less convenient for people making cnx, especially since a lot of the newer cities only get 1-2 flights a day. Can make for a long connection wait.


The two gates in BNA (C15 and C17) are up, running and very much in use. I don't know where they would put more gates at MDW, but there is definitely gate space for more flights at MDW if they want to go that direction. It would not be much fun without some improvements landside, though.

southwest1675 wrote:
BNA has an air service announcement from WN at 8:30. I see they added MKE.


I think it's just MKE, although that is a nice add with some opportunities for connections at both ends. It will make my life a whole lot easier and will, I think, capture some passengers who are flying BNA-ORD and driving because MDW-MKE Is a longer drive and many of the connecting options on BNA-MKE today are not convenient.

When I was looking for possible new flights, I noted that WN has added some three stop, one plane change itineraries (I saw BNA-MDW-PIT-BWI-PBI and BNA-HOU-MEM-TPA-SJU). I assume that is not unique to BNA.


I'm just waiting for WN or AS to add PDX from Nashville. It's a big hole for both markets.
Herb Kelleher>Gary Kelly
 
usflyguy
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Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 1:46 pm

BNA-CUN is added along with STL-CUN.
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 12265
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 1:49 pm

usflyguy wrote:
BNA-CUN is added along with STL-CUN.


Is BNA Saturday only? That's why I missed it if so.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
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southwest1675
Posts: 268
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Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 1:53 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
usflyguy wrote:
BNA-CUN is added along with STL-CUN.


Is BNA Saturday only? That's why I missed it if so.


Yes
Herb Kelleher>Gary Kelly
 
usflyguy
Posts: 1646
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:29 am

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 2:15 pm

CUN-FLL is going up to 3x daily
CUN-DEN up 2x daily
CUN-SAT is back saturday-only.
FLL-MBJ is increased up to 2x.

LGA-MSY Saturday only
LGA-STL Saturday only

CUN will be up to 19 flights a day on Saturdays. 14 daily the rest of the week.
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
Jshank83
Posts: 431
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 2:23 pm

usflyguy wrote:
CUN-FLL is going up to 3x daily
CUN-DEN up 2x daily
CUN-SAT is back saturday-only.
FLL-MBJ is increased up to 2x.

LGA-MSY Saturday only
LGA-STL Saturday only

CUN will be up to 19 flights a day on Saturdays. 14 daily the rest of the week.


Do you mean CUN-STL or LGA-SAT maybe? LGA-STL is 3x a day.
 
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knope2001
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Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 2:55 pm

izbtmnhd wrote:
knope2001 wrote:
Not quite sure why anyone would see a second CLE-MKE as a WTF. Those two markets that share a lot of business ties. It's a positive sign for CLE that WN is expanding beyond the additions from CAK. It's been a while since WN took notice of CLE but maybe they were waiting for the CAK/CLE situation to work itself out after the AirTran merger. Bookings for those old CAK routes must be OK and maybe they smell a bit of blood in the water with UA.


I think MKE-CLE may seem like a random, dartboard sort of add to anybody not aware that United has seen fit to continue it with 2x weekday RJs despite the hub closure a couple years ago.

CAK-MKE did just fine on AirTran even with 117-seat 717's, but they ran a coordinated connecting hub at Milwaukee. It wasn't just local traffic. However it's the only time (other than the brief Continental Lite fiasco in 1994-ish) that there's been low-fare service between the CLE/CAK/PIT region and Milwaukee. Hopefully they do well.
 
dolphinflyer
Posts: 205
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Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 3:17 pm

 
izbtmnhd
Posts: 457
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:06 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 3:21 pm

knope2001 wrote:
izbtmnhd wrote:
knope2001 wrote:
Not quite sure why anyone would see a second CLE-MKE as a WTF. Those two markets that share a lot of business ties. It's a positive sign for CLE that WN is expanding beyond the additions from CAK. It's been a while since WN took notice of CLE but maybe they were waiting for the CAK/CLE situation to work itself out after the AirTran merger. Bookings for those old CAK routes must be OK and maybe they smell a bit of blood in the water with UA.


I think MKE-CLE may seem like a random, dartboard sort of add to anybody not aware that United has seen fit to continue it with 2x weekday RJs despite the hub closure a couple years ago.

CAK-MKE did just fine on AirTran even with 117-seat 717's, but they ran a coordinated connecting hub at Milwaukee. It wasn't just local traffic. However it's the only time (other than the brief Continental Lite fiasco in 1994-ish) that there's been low-fare service between the CLE/CAK/PIT region and Milwaukee. Hopefully they do well.


I will say this: The MKE add is a bit surprising considering CLE doesn't have service to either DAL or HOU. I makes me wonder if MKE is successful that WN might start CLE-MCI before adding flights into Texas.
 
flyiguy
Posts: 941
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Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 3:32 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
flydulles wrote:
is southwest big in phoneix? cause i think they do good dulles to phoneix!


Yes, Phoenix a hub for southwest, and southwest only has four flights out of Dulles so I doubt that will happen, but it is a possibility.


Actually we have 6, going to 7 in June: (3) DEN, (2) ATL, (1) MCO 7 (1) FLL-starting June 4
The opinions I post are of mine and mine alone, not of the airline I work for.
 
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AVLAirlineFreq
Posts: 920
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2008 1:31 am

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 3:43 pm

According to the PDF linked in Bill's blog, three of the Saturday-only additions (LGA-SAT, CMH-HOU, and LGA-MSY) are "holidays only."

https://www.southwestaircommunity.com/h ... tinued.pdf
 
cledaybuck
Posts: 231
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:07 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 3:54 pm

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
According to the PDF linked in Bill's blog, three of the Saturday-only additions (LGA-SAT, CMH-HOU, and LGA-MSY) are "holidays only."

https://www.southwestaircommunity.com/h ... tinued.pdf
What does the x23 mean in the blog post?
 
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knope2001
Posts: 2514
Joined: Wed Jun 01, 2005 5:54 am

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 4:31 pm

Interesting...well that explains why I found so much stuff and there hasn't been much else posted here. Most of the movement was at Milwaukee.

cledaybuck wrote:
AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
According to the PDF linked in Bill's blog, three of the Saturday-only additions (LGA-SAT, CMH-HOU, and LGA-MSY) are "holidays only."

https://www.southwestaircommunity.com/h ... tinued.pdf
What does the x23 mean in the blog post?


x23 is except Tuesday/Wednesday.

Standard notion has the days of the week numbered 1 through 7 starting with Monday, and then x means except. So for example:
x7 is daily except Sunday
67 is Saturday-Sunday only
x26 is daily except Tuesday and Saturday.
 
avi8
Posts: 952
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 1:36 am

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 4:39 pm

Wow, looks like WN has love for SJO. Three destinations in a little more than a year. Are all flights to SJO daily? Or is BWI Saturday-only. I wonder when GUA, SAL or PTY will come.
avi8

Medschool student
 
jbs2886
Posts: 888
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 4:44 pm

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
According to the PDF linked in Bill's blog, three of the Saturday-only additions (LGA-SAT, CMH-HOU, and LGA-MSY) are "holidays only."

https://www.southwestaircommunity.com/h ... tinued.pdf


Very interesting - also appears they liked the results of the Sat/Sun frequencies (testing in MSY at least) and are doing a lot more system wide.
 
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TWA302
Posts: 110
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Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 4:47 pm

stl07 wrote:
I'm not so sure about STL-CUN. F9 already flies a daily a321 and adds in extra flights sometimes when they know there is demand. Unless they are able to beat Frontier's pricing, there would be no need for customers to switch over. Vacation packages default to F9's flight for airfare. I would think it would be smarter to launch a flight to PVR/SJD/HUX or a Caribbean island



Makes sense. I'd be down for PVR/SJD/HUX. Especially SJD. We went their in March via HOU and DEN on the way back, which wasn't bad at all, but the non-stop would be amazing from STL.
 
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jbpdx
Posts: 207
Joined: Tue Aug 18, 2015 6:37 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 5:26 pm

southwest1675 wrote:

I'm just waiting for WN or AS to add PDX from Nashville. It's a big hole for both markets.



WN yes. AS can't fly to everywhere from PDX. How about AA for a novelty?
 
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BMWdrvr75
Posts: 36
Joined: Wed Jul 08, 2015 6:23 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 5:33 pm

With all the hoopla from Southwest about Alaska Airlines and WN being California's carrier of choice I did not see any LUV for the Golden State from the boys in Texas......Hopefully WN will let Alaska grow in CA and this will give Californians and West Coasters better options than just WN. WN and AS can co-exisist which would be nice to see...Like the old OC/PS days.
We Make Flying Easy......Come fly the Silver Bird........Something Special in the Air......
 
User avatar
SANFan
Posts: 4002
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

Re: WN Schedule Release 5/18/17 Predictions

Thu May 18, 2017 6:49 pm

knope2001 wrote:
Based on MKE changes I have a feeling there are some surprises out there.
MKE-BNA new 2x/day
MKE-CLE new 2x/day
MKE-STL increases to 2x
MKE-MSP ends
MKE-SFO ends...likely seasonal?
MKE-SAN ends...likely seasonal?
I'd guess there are a whole lot of other changes out there waiting to be found.

I'm surprised to see MKE-SAN gone. They've tested the route for a year or 2 (seasonally, Sat-only) and then announced it was to go permanent/year-round daily. Now, according to the blog, not any service at all will be offered in the market. (And I guess the same with MKE-SFO.) This change takes WN down to 30 nonstop destinations out of SAN.

WN was the only cx offering nonstops between SAN and MKE. I would be very surprised if AAG didn't jump in with an EMJ, prolly in 2018!

As far as I've seen so far, this was the only decrease in SAN on the November sked. We will be sitting at about 102 weekday departures for the winter holiday schedule. (Subject to variations by day, etc.)

bb

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