SonaSounds
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"Silicon Valley’s Airport Narrowing the Gap in Passenger Volume Among Bay Area Airports"......really?

Thu May 18, 2017 8:30 pm

I saw this article come through and had no idea SJC was gaining so many PAX. I was unaware that SJC is growing so fast that it is "narrowing the gap" between SFO, OAK, and SJC. I know SJC is the "fasts growing major airport in the Americas", but even so, 10% of ~10 million is only a million increase. I'm confused how this is narrowing the gap with SFO when I thought SFO went up by 3 million last year although it is a small percentage of their growth. I know SJC is doing well (they are greatly positioned to do well!) but not that well.

Anyone have any more recent numbers or knowledge of what is going on in the Bay Area that they can share?
Thanks!


Silicon Valley’s Airport Narrowing the Gap in Passenger Volume Among Bay Area Airports

Adding more than a million new passengers in just one year, Mineta San Jose International Airport maintained its torrid growth in the first quarter of 2017, far surpassing both the national average and the strong growth rates of its competitors in the San Francisco Bay area.

Thanks to dozens of new flights, SJC recorded 10.2 percent year-over-year passenger growth in the first three months of this year, compared to the first quarter of 2016. The airport has now surpassed 11 million annual passengers on a rolling 12-month basis. From April 2016 through March 2017, SJC welcomed 11.03 million total passengers – representing growth of more than a million passengers from the year prior.

SJC is rapidly gaining ground on fellow San Francisco Bay area airports Oakland International and San Francisco International. SJC’s first quarter growth of 10.2 percent eclipses Oakland’s healthy growth rate of 6.1 percent in that same period, and is more than four times the first-quarter growth rate of much-bigger SFO (2.3 percent). And, preliminary passenger numbers for the month of April at SJC show an increase of more than 18 percent over the previous year.

“If our projections are right, every single day this summer our passenger counts passing through SJC will exceed those of our busiest days – Thanksgiving weekend – in 2016,” said San Jose Interim Director of Aviation John Aitken. “This huge growth in the past couple of years is a tremendous tribute to our airline partners who are investing in San Jose, and to our local community which continues embracing all of the new flight choices offered at SJC.”


http://www.aviationpros.com/press_relea ... a-airports
 
ucdtim17
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Re: "Silicon Valley’s Airport Narrowing the Gap in Passenger Volume Among Bay Area Airports"......really?

Thu May 18, 2017 9:38 pm

SJC gaining 1 mil while SFO gains 3 mil would indeed suggest a larger, not smaller, gap. #math
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: "Silicon Valley’s Airport Narrowing the Gap in Passenger Volume Among Bay Area Airports"......really?

Thu May 18, 2017 9:41 pm

It's fine if they're comparing it to OAK. They're at about the same level of patronage, with SJC having an int'l advantage.

But absolutely absurd to do so with SFO, as most would know.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
dc10lover
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Re: "Silicon Valley’s Airport Narrowing the Gap in Passenger Volume Among Bay Area Airports"......really?

Thu May 18, 2017 9:48 pm

Are airfares competitive to SFO?
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KLMatSJC
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Re: "Silicon Valley’s Airport Narrowing the Gap in Passenger Volume Among Bay Area Airports"......really?

Thu May 18, 2017 10:02 pm

ucdtim17 wrote:
SJC gaining 1 mil while SFO gains 3 mil would indeed suggest a larger, not smaller, gap. #math


As a percentage, SJC is growing faster than SFO. Obviously they are nowhere near SFO in volume, but technically (from a mathematical standpoint) they are catching up.
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SonaSounds
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Re: "Silicon Valley’s Airport Narrowing the Gap in Passenger Volume Among Bay Area Airports"......really?

Thu May 18, 2017 10:12 pm

KLMatSJC wrote:
ucdtim17 wrote:
SJC gaining 1 mil while SFO gains 3 mil would indeed suggest a larger, not smaller, gap. #math


As a percentage, SJC is growing faster than SFO. Obviously they are nowhere near SFO in volume, but technically (from a mathematical standpoint) they are catching up.



How so? I am not understanding that claim they are making. From their respective websites SFO grew 6.0% in 2016 and SJC grew 10.2% in 2016. 6.0% of 53,106,505 is 3,186,390.3 while 10.2% of 10,796,725 is 1,101,265.95. Even if you go with the 2.3% SJC is claiming SFO's growth would still be 1,221,449.615 outpacing SJC. I don't understand how this is "narrowing the gap" in anyway.

Could someone point out what I'm missing?
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: "Silicon Valley’s Airport Narrowing the Gap in Passenger Volume Among Bay Area Airports"......really?

Thu May 18, 2017 11:41 pm

SonaSounds wrote:
KLMatSJC wrote:
ucdtim17 wrote:
SJC gaining 1 mil while SFO gains 3 mil would indeed suggest a larger, not smaller, gap. #math


As a percentage, SJC is growing faster than SFO. Obviously they are nowhere near SFO in volume, but technically (from a mathematical standpoint) they are catching up.



How so? I am not understanding that claim they are making. From their respective websites SFO grew 6.0% in 2016 and SJC grew 10.2% in 2016. 6.0% of 53,106,505 is 3,186,390.3 while 10.2% of 10,796,725 is 1,101,265.95. Even if you go with the 2.3% SJC is claiming SFO's growth would still be 1,221,449.615 outpacing SJC. I don't understand how this is "narrowing the gap" in anyway.

Could someone point out what I'm missing?


They are growing faster, hence "narrowing the gap". Obviously that's a stretch since SFO is larger so still carrying more people, but theoretically if both airports continued growing at the same pace, at some point this century SJC would surpass SFO. :-)
-Dave
 
SonaSounds
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Re: "Silicon Valley’s Airport Narrowing the Gap in Passenger Volume Among Bay Area Airports"......really?

Fri May 19, 2017 5:24 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
SonaSounds wrote:
KLMatSJC wrote:

As a percentage, SJC is growing faster than SFO. Obviously they are nowhere near SFO in volume, but technically (from a mathematical standpoint) they are catching up.



How so? I am not understanding that claim they are making. From their respective websites SFO grew 6.0% in 2016 and SJC grew 10.2% in 2016. 6.0% of 53,106,505 is 3,186,390.3 while 10.2% of 10,796,725 is 1,101,265.95. Even if you go with the 2.3% SJC is claiming SFO's growth would still be 1,221,449.615 outpacing SJC. I don't understand how this is "narrowing the gap" in anyway.

Could someone point out what I'm missing?


They are growing faster, hence "narrowing the gap". Obviously that's a stretch since SFO is larger so still carrying more people, but theoretically if both airports continued growing at the same pace, at some point this century SJC would surpass SFO. :-)


Ahh I see what you're saying. That's some wishful thinking though even with all their recent success!
 
AirFiero
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Re: "Silicon Valley’s Airport Narrowing the Gap in Passenger Volume Among Bay Area Airports"......really?

Fri May 19, 2017 5:31 pm

SonaSounds wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
SonaSounds wrote:
Ahh I see what you're saying. That's some wishful thinking though even with all their recent success!


Keep in mind the headline was written by the author on a website, not someone from SJC. A bit sensationalist, but SJCs growth rate is currently higher than at SFO or OAK. Good news for SJC in any case.
 
c933103
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Re: "Silicon Valley’s Airport Narrowing the Gap in Passenger Volume Among Bay Area Airports"......really?

Fri May 19, 2017 6:53 pm

SonaSounds wrote:
KLMatSJC wrote:
ucdtim17 wrote:
SJC gaining 1 mil while SFO gains 3 mil would indeed suggest a larger, not smaller, gap. #math


As a percentage, SJC is growing faster than SFO. Obviously they are nowhere near SFO in volume, but technically (from a mathematical standpoint) they are catching up.



How so? I am not understanding that claim they are making. From their respective websites SFO grew 6.0% in 2016 and SJC grew 10.2% in 2016. 6.0% of 53,106,505 is 3,186,390.3 while 10.2% of 10,796,725 is 1,101,265.95. Even if you go with the 2.3% SJC is claiming SFO's growth would still be 1,221,449.615 outpacing SJC. I don't understand how this is "narrowing the gap" in anyway.

Could someone point out what I'm missing?

10796726/53106505=20.33%
(10796726×1.102)/(53106505×1.060)=21.14%
so percentage wise it is closer
 
ASQ400
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Re: "Silicon Valley’s Airport Narrowing the Gap in Passenger Volume Among Bay Area Airports"......really?

Fri May 19, 2017 6:58 pm

SFO is, and will remain, the busiest by far.
If/when SFO and SJC max out on slots and space, OAK could be expanded to rival SFO.
What's more likely, however, is a recession to cut flights
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HPRamper
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Re: "Silicon Valley’s Airport Narrowing the Gap in Passenger Volume Among Bay Area Airports"......really?

Fri May 19, 2017 7:00 pm

Is this referring to total passenger count or strictly O&D numbers?
 
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PW100
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Re: "Silicon Valley’s Airport Narrowing the Gap in Passenger Volume Among Bay Area Airports"......really?

Fri May 19, 2017 8:31 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
They are growing faster, hence "narrowing the gap". Obviously that's a stretch since SFO is larger so still carrying more people, but theoretically if both airports continued growing at the same pace, at some point this century SJC would surpass SFO. :-)


Well it would take some time though . . .
If both would continue growing at the same pace (SFO 6%, SJO 10%) things would look like this:
Year SFO SJC Delta
0 . 53.0 . 10.8 . 42.2
1 . 56.2 . 11.9 . 44.3
2 . 59.6 . 13.1 . 46.5
3 . 63.1 . 14.4 . 48.7
4 . 66.9 . 15.8 . 51.1
5 . 70.9 . 17.4 . 53.5
6 . 75.2 . 19.1 . 56.0
7 . 79.7 . 21.0 . 58.6
8 . 84.5 . 23.2 . 61.3
9 . 89.5 . 25.5 . 64.1
10 . 94.9 . 28.0 . 66.9
11 . 100.6 . 30.8 . 69.8
12 . 106.6 . 33.9 . 72.8
13 . 113.0 . 37.3 . 75.8
14 . 119.8 . 41.0 . 78.8
15 . 127.0 . 45.1 . 81.9
16 . 134.6 . 49.6 . 85.0
17 . 142.7 . 54.6 . 88.1
18 . 151.3 . 60.0 . 91.2
19 . 160.4 . 66.1 . 94.3
20 . 170.0 . 72.7 . 97.3
21 . 180.2 . 79.9 . 100.3
22 . 191.0 . 87.9 . 103.1
23 . 202.4 . 96.7 . 105.7
24 . 214.6 . 106.4 . 108.2
25 . 227.5 . 117.0 . 110.5
26 . 241.1 . 128.7 . 112.4
27 . 255.6 . 141.6 . 114.0
28 . 270.9 . 155.7 . 115.2
29 . 287.2 . 171.3 . 115.9
30 . 304.4 . 188.5 . 116.0
31 . 322.7 . 207.3 . 115.4
32 . 342.0 . 228.0 . 114.0
33 . 362.6 . 250.8 . 111.7
34 . 384.3 . 275.9 . 108.4
35 . 407.4 . 303.5 . 103.9
36 . 431.8 . 333.9 . 97.9
37 . 457.7 . 367.2 . 90.5
38 . 485.2 . 404.0 . 81.2
39 . 514.3 . 444.4 . 69.9
40 . 545.1 . 488.8 . 56.3
41 . 577.9 . 537.7 . 40.2
42 . 612.5 . 591.4 . 21.1
43 . 649.3 . 650.6 . -1.3
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ikramerica
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Re: "Silicon Valley’s Airport Narrowing the Gap in Passenger Volume Among Bay Area Airports"......really?

Fri May 19, 2017 8:44 pm

Anyone remember the Monty Python Penguin IQ sketch? It's kinda like that.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: "Silicon Valley’s Airport Narrowing the Gap in Passenger Volume Among Bay Area Airports"......really?

Fri May 19, 2017 8:54 pm

I'm guessing the article really means to say that SJC is close to surpassing OAK as the second busiest Bay Area airport. Like most aviation articles, it's incomplete and written by someone who had no idea what they are talking about.
 
SonaSounds
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Re: "Silicon Valley’s Airport Narrowing the Gap in Passenger Volume Among Bay Area Airports"......really?

Fri May 19, 2017 9:10 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
I'm guessing the article really means to say that SJC is close to surpassing OAK as the second busiest Bay Area airport. Like most aviation articles, it's incomplete and written by someone who had no idea what they are talking about.


The irony is that the source is SJC themselves......http://www.flysanjose.com/sites/default ... illion.pdf
 
Noise
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Re: "Silicon Valley’s Airport Narrowing the Gap in Passenger Volume Among Bay Area Airports"......really?

Fri May 19, 2017 9:44 pm

If SJC is growing at a faster percentage rate then yes they are "technically" narrowing the gap. The influx of new international flights and the Alaska Airlines focus city has been propping up pax numbers at SJC for the last few years.
 
steex
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Re: "Silicon Valley’s Airport Narrowing the Gap in Passenger Volume Among Bay Area Airports"......really?

Fri May 19, 2017 9:50 pm

Noise wrote:
If SJC is growing at a faster percentage rate then yes they are "technically" narrowing the gap.


Realistically, though, that's just not how the English language works. Decreasing the rate at which you fall behind is not generally regarded the same thing as actually closing the gap.

"Closing the gap" would be taken to mean "getting closer together." While SJC did grow at a greater rate than SFO today, the distance between their passenger numbers is increasing, not decreasing, in the present. Translating this to literal distance, it would be like saying that a car which accelerated from a stop to 10 MPH is "closing the gap" on a parallel car traveling at 80 MPH. They've fallen behind less and could eventually be closing the gap if the growth (or acceleration) rate is sustainable, but it will be a while before they are actually closing the gap.
 
ucdtim17
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Re: "Silicon Valley’s Airport Narrowing the Gap in Passenger Volume Among Bay Area Airports"......really?

Fri May 19, 2017 9:58 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
I'm guessing the article really means to say that SJC is close to surpassing OAK as the second busiest Bay Area airport. Like most aviation articles, it's incomplete and written by someone who had no idea what they are talking about.


OAK still had ~100k/10% lead in March this year, the most recently reported month (5% growth v March 2016). They're not that close. If they continue to double up OAK's growth (10% to 5%; not likely), they won't pass until 2019 (14.3 mil to 13.9 mil). If OAK continues to grow at the rate it did last calendar YOY, SJC won't pass until 2022. There'll surely be a recession at some point though and OAK and SJC will take the hits as airlines consolidate at SFO, just like last time.
 
AAflyguy
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Re: "Silicon Valley’s Airport Narrowing the Gap in Passenger Volume Among Bay Area Airports"......really?

Fri May 19, 2017 10:52 pm

So much has changed in the last 10-years, including what has been an astounding rebound in traffic at both OAK & SJC. OAK traffic increased 13% in April. Definitely picking up the pace again after slowing in the 1Q. SJC will see strong growth so that gap may indeed continue to close between the two. But, there's still more to come at OAK as well. Game on! As far as what happens when the next recession hits, I'm not so sure it will be as easy as saying carriers will consolidate at SFO like they did last time. Next time doesn't necessarily have to be the same as the last. I suspect it won't be severe, nor will it take much of a toll on either of the two in yielding a plethora of capacity to SFO. Time will tell.

AAflyguy
 
c933103
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Re: "Silicon Valley’s Airport Narrowing the Gap in Passenger Volume Among Bay Area Airports"......really?

Fri May 19, 2017 11:50 pm

steex wrote:
Noise wrote:
If SJC is growing at a faster percentage rate then yes they are "technically" narrowing the gap.


Realistically, though, that's just not how the English language works. Decreasing the rate at which you fall behind is not generally regarded the same thing as actually closing the gap.

"Closing the gap" would be taken to mean "getting closer together." While SJC did grow at a greater rate than SFO today, the distance between their passenger numbers is increasing, not decreasing, in the present. Translating this to literal distance, it would be like saying that a car which accelerated from a stop to 10 MPH is "closing the gap" on a parallel car traveling at 80 MPH. They've fallen behind less and could eventually be closing the gap if the growth (or acceleration) rate is sustainable, but it will be a while before they are actually closing the gap.


It is closer in percentage, in the sense that SJC get 20 passenger for every 100 passenger SFO get in 2015, but last year they get 21 passenger for every 100 passengers in SFO
 
Noise
Posts: 2132
Joined: Wed Dec 22, 1999 7:38 am

Re: "Silicon Valley’s Airport Narrowing the Gap in Passenger Volume Among Bay Area Airports"......really?

Sat May 20, 2017 3:39 am

c933103 wrote:
steex wrote:
Noise wrote:
If SJC is growing at a faster percentage rate then yes they are "technically" narrowing the gap.


Realistically, though, that's just not how the English language works. Decreasing the rate at which you fall behind is not generally regarded the same thing as actually closing the gap.

"Closing the gap" would be taken to mean "getting closer together." While SJC did grow at a greater rate than SFO today, the distance between their passenger numbers is increasing, not decreasing, in the present. Translating this to literal distance, it would be like saying that a car which accelerated from a stop to 10 MPH is "closing the gap" on a parallel car traveling at 80 MPH. They've fallen behind less and could eventually be closing the gap if the growth (or acceleration) rate is sustainable, but it will be a while before they are actually closing the gap.


It is closer in percentage, in the sense that SJC get 20 passenger for every 100 passenger SFO get in 2015, but last year they get 21 passenger for every 100 passengers in SFO


If both airports continue growing at their current pace in perpetuity, SJC will mathematically eventually overtake SFO. So the term "closing the gap" can be used here, although I think we can all agree that this is pretty unreasonable at this time.

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